Math Caught $1 Million Dollar Fraud
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- Опубликовано: 15 дек 2021
- “... for the root of all evils is the love of money,” states the First Epistle of Paul to Timothy -- and no woman in 19th century America exemplifies that more than Hetty Green. She was a remarkable, talented financier who built an empire and forged headways for women in business. But in 1865, Hetty revealed the true depths of her greed when she orchestrated a will forgery that would pave the way for the use of mathematical analysis in the courtroom.
Hetty produced a copy of her Aunt Sylvia’s will leaving everything to her. It was suspicious, but no one could use math to prove it. Benjamin and Charles Peirce could, however, show that it was beyond statistically improbable that every feature of Sylvia Howland’s supposed signature was a perfect match to another sample. There’s a 1 in a million chance, and then there’s 1 in a sextillion -- and their analysis of graphonomic probability showed without a doubt that one of the most successful women in American history had engaged in forgery to satisfy her own personal greed.
The meticulous analysis of downward handwriting strokes, the calculation and application of standard deviation, and explaining the utterly shocking scale of a coincidence proved that Hetty was a fake. And while math is often misapplied in the courtroom, exposing Hetty Green’s terrible attempt to defraud her own family marked an opportunity to use probability to get to the truth.
** SOURCES **
Meier, P., & Zabell, S. (1980). Benjamin Peirce and the Howland Will. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 75(371), 497-506.
"The Howland Will Case", American Law Review, vol. 4, p. 625 (1870)
“Hetty: The Genius and Madness of America's First Female Tycoon.” Charles Slack (2005)
“The Richest Woman in America: Hetty Green in the Gilded Age.” Janet Wallach (2013)
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Remember I want your answer to the odds of a 7.989 standard deviation. And thanks to Morning Brew for giving me a news brief in less time than it takes to forge my Aunt Sylvia's will. Sign up for free here: bit.ly/mbvsauce2
Love your video
The number of the lady who is in there are you doing the same with the number one of the kids that you do with sentret
You are a genius bro and i like your videos as they are logical interesting and knowledgeable for me as i m in 12th standard... Love from India🇮🇳
I am actually curious about the answer !so I am commenting to get notifications.
6.8e-16 ≈ 1/1.47e15
or one in one quadrillion, four hundred and seventy trillion
The ironic thing about all this is, if she had been sloppy in tracing her aunt's signature, she probably would have gotten away with it.
it’s possible she’s gotten away with it before, then.
But, if she was sloppy, she had to be consistent with her sloppyness
@Daniel Kavanagh exactly..... Her mistake was high accuracy. A little sloppiness would have favoured her substantially
@Daniel Kavanagh Yes that's the problem. Had she made a few mistakes, maybe angled the lines a bit, she would've gotten away with it.
We know, we watched the video.
I do like that Kevin distinguished between this case and the previous ones, saying that all the facts of this case makes it different from the other two cases, where very rare and low probabilities were involved. At first, I was thinking "Wait, what if the signature match was also a coincidence that actually occurred, and maybe the aunt did have a legitimate earlier will?" I'm glad I waited until the vid ended before commenting lol.
Dream: I like these odds
@@RGC_animation lol
This is a series about criminal forensics as much as it's about math, and he came to a conclusion that applies really well.
I like to comment before watching the video meself. Pass quick, uniformed judgement.
Mostly, I share ignorant opinions and feel an emotional connection to them, so I hold on to my false opinions for dear life when challenged.
@@kendomyers Please tell me you have watched the video before commenting that.
"How consistent is a signature?"
Actually an interesting ask. I've been turned down multiple times from services because mine never even closely look the same.
Perhaps simplify it? Use your initials or sm? 😂
Basic cursive with a couple unique touches is a good way to sign. For example, I combine the first letter of my last and first name. The letters are B and P and I combine them similarly to how the E and B are combined in the Bugatti logo. This makes a clearly intentional way to sign that you would have to know and wouldn't be able to make up.
That's why my signature is just a straight line. Looks the exact same, every time.
My signature is just an X because I'm illiterate
@@vigilantcosmicpenguin8721 and pretty easily forged
Ok so seeing standard deviation used in a real life setting is something in wasn’t expecting to see today but now here we are. Thank you Kevin for another banger video
Youre joking right it has applications in literally every field
@@melody3741 yes hahaha it was a joke
@@Basswaite_2 okay sorry 😥 im not good at telling
@@melody3741 no worries at all!
Jesus loves us all that's why he died for our sins,.
There's also a really big difference in convicting someone for prison or deciding who receives an inheritance. In one case, you're potentially ruining a live without gain, in the other case you simply decide who between two parties receives a benefit.
This could have been prevented if there was a written proof of her signing this thing and depositing it in a central bank to known persons with shared access.
Then if anyone came up with such a testament out of nowhere, it would have to have a verifying letter in the central bank, else it'd be invalid.
Such, it would never even have occurred, since the person who could testament never wrote a verifying letter with discrete shared access to the witnesses, nor is she alive to be accounted for it.
Relevance?
I'm delevoping a new justice paradigm based on mathematical logic. Previously unsecured transactions become self-verifying like a logical hamming code.
Dude, it was the early 20th century.
Dream: *fake speedrun*
Me, today: "Such evanescent shadows of probability cannot belong to actual Minecraft"
There's a video made by Karl Jobst talking about Dream's cheat in more detail.
Video title: Dream's Cheating Confession: Uncovering The Truth
@@j.21 Not necessary but the gist of this is "Dream unintentionally used a mod that boosts the drop rate of items necessary to beat the game to his speedruns that he normally uses for his content."
@@Kurszt Still cheating tho. He's contentmaker, not an actual speedrunner.
@@asdbanz316 He was also a speedrunner though.
@@j.21 Not gonna lie, Karl's videos on MC are his worst content imo, since he hasn't really properly delved into the matter and doesn't know everything that's possible. Generally he knows what he's talking about, just not for Minecraft
If she changed it from 50/50 but to 70/30 no one might have thought twice about it.
You've really found your footing in these videos, Kevin. They're getting such a great reception. Kudos.
Brilliant follow-up to the previous videos about the misuse of forensic mathematics! And a fascinating story in its own right-- I'd read about Hetty Green as a child, but didn't know this part of her life.
Hi. Mind some science-youtuber-recommendations?
Who else thought Kevin was gonna bust Elizabeth Holmes using math
what happened to your checkmark?
I thought kevin was gonna bust too
your verified mark disappeared??
@@muskact4450 i thought he was fake
What happened to ur checkmark ik its u but what happened
When I left school, I had a job for a year or so in my local Unemployment Benefit Office aka Dole Office, as a clerk processing "Fresh Claims". Every document the claimant submitted had to be countersigned or initialled by me. I quickly found out that if I had missed a document, one of my colleagues in the back office would forge my initials on the form or whatever. In his head, he was doing both the claimant and myself a favour by making sure the claimant got what was due, and that I didn't get a bollocking for not signing off the forms correctly. My head still rings with "Yes, but.....!!"
"...that's gotta be some form of illegal, somewhere"
Indian law student here. We're taught, people must have a "guilty mind" while committing a crime. A criminal liability is different from a civil liability. The concept of 'mens rea' (guilty mind) is important in determining guilt or innocence of a said person.
I love that Kevin has become Sherlock Homey, I like maths and now solve crimes, and love this series. Keep it up!
Homey?
@Onlooker of things Sorry, i failed spelling.
I meant sherlock homes but now that i think about it, homey is better.
@@jaydenchundanga6318 Holmes
she just had Dream luck
Awesome video! I hope you enjoy making these videos as you did the last set of quirky math proofs
Matt Parker from Stand-Up Maths went over human odds in a series of videos. He came up with the "Ten Billion Human Second Century". He outlines the comparison in the first minute of his "How did the 'impossible' Perfect Bridge Deal happen?". I highly recommend watching that and the previous video to see him outline at what point insane odds become 'humanly impossible', as at a certain point all large numbers just kind of go over your head and you can't really fathom them.
If anyone find this comment and has time, they should check out the whole video about the Minecraft speedrun controversy. Brilliant stuff
Finally, a worthy opponent for Scrooge McDuck and Mr. Crabs.
Mr Krabs
@@GrooveScorpion Mr Kraps
Scrooge McDuck, Eugene Krabs, Ebenezer Scrooge and Charles Montgomery Plantagenet Schicklgruber Burns
@@valentinmitterbauer4196 PlanaWHAT?
@@GrooveScorpion This is Mr. Burns' full name
If Mr. Krabs and Mr. Burns had a daughter. It would be this woman.
Please keep doing these videos, I love them!
Love this series. So glad you’re continuing on. Math can do so much, damb
Pleeeeaae keep these coming!!! My new fav series on RUclips :)))
The signatures matching is still more likely than dream not cheating
There's a video made by Karl Jobst talking about Dream's cheat in more detail.
Video title: Dream's Cheating Confession: Uncovering The Truth
He cheated but said it was accidentally.
He also admitted he meant to cheat with the mod in his manhunts.
@@brandonbombplays9304 But was there proof he was cheating with this in the manhunts to show he meant to have used it for the manhunts and not the speedrun
@@reuben4721 that is irrelevant. I just said he admitted he cheated, but said it was accidentally because he left the mod in his folder by accident.
@@brandonbombplays9304 how do we know it was "by accident" though. And the cheating was noticed right after he said in discord that he was angry about the drops he was getting. I guess it would make him seem like a bit of pshycopath with all of the lying he did in the cheating scandal so i guess people are believing its an accident
And as always, thanks for the video.
I love this series :) more please!
Love your videos, Kevin! Wishing you a great year ahead! :)
Thanks for posting ❗️
Enjoyed this video. Thanks !
Great series you got going on. Keep up the great work!
Sylvia left over 99% of the fortune to charity, respect 100.
her mother forever twist in grave xD
The remaining 1% remains hidden for her family's sake. That's all I can say, keep the set 100 %.
Respect 99
Basically: use probability as the final nail in the coffin, not as the foundation for a case?
Probability is circumstantial, and while (contrary to popular belief) it's possible to convict someone on circumstantial evidence alone, what you're looking for in that case are things that, coming together independently, fit into a pattern. This forms a strong foundation for a case, rather than your evidence being stacked haphazardly on top of each other like you're playing Jenga.
When you _start_ with probability as the core of a case without compensating for how the result biases the investigation going forward, you're going to be building a Jenga tower that can come crashing down at any time, because whatever you find next will _rely_ on that first result being correct to make any sense. And while independently intersecting coincidences make you _more_ confident that you're correct, if those coincidences _depend_ on one another due to factors that cause bias, the probability of being _incorrect_ rises dramatically.
A shoddy case like described above is essentially like a chain: if there's a weak link in it, that's where it snaps, and all the effort you put in after that point is not just wasted, but outright misleading, since you fit it to an incorrect assumption. The more links a chain like that has, the more likely that at least one will fail, even if they're all decently strong. Making sure your evidence arises independently does not lengthen an unreliable chain, but creates parallel connections that strengthen the core of your case.
Awesome man. Base message is spot-on
Really enjoying these videos on math with real life consequences
You should create more videos like that, i love ittt! I can't believe i listen to you more than to my prof 😁
Watching this on new year's eve
guten rutsch, Kevin!
Brilliant video! Thanks for this.
Thank you Kevin! This video made it way easier to fake your signature thanks to all those you showed and explaining
Really loving these deep-dive forensic analysis videos, keep em coming!
Once again, an excellent video.
I wonder how they reasoned out the assumptions needed for a specific probability distribution. I can't imagine their data would be that robust. 🤔
Great video, more like these please!
me: (overcharges a customer by a penny)
my brain: (realizes)
also my brain: The Fraud Caught by Math
"VSauce, Kevin here, and I'm about to BUST"
7:13
R programming:
f
Legendary. Glad someone did the hard work I don't have the skillset nor attention span for
In a world where "dark mode" is thriving, Vsauce2 decided that adding a camera flash visual effect was the right thing to do... My eyes.... MY EYES...
I like this new style of stories
One of my philosophy profs always pronounced C.S. Peirce's name as "purse" instead of "pierce" (probably because of its spelling?) and that is what I most remember from his class. I don't even know if it's the right pronunciation, but it's what I have taken from that class.
One of the best videos you have made
The cinematography of this episode is really good.
Good video 👍
Thanks
The odds of the signature being an exact match was 100 time less likely than ten billion second human century, so yeah that was impossible.
Now this video and the other three videos like this one is why I re-subscribed to the Vsauce2 channel freaking great video Kevin, Bravo good show sir
It's very interesting. I have signed my name 20-30 times when I need to and they don't match at all. It's almost impossible to sign your name the same over and over.
This was a really interesting case.
"VSauce, Kevin here, and I'm about to bust"
*video ends*
Anyone else who thought Hetty was gonna pull some underhanded shit by naming her daughter Sylvia, after her late aunt? I was just waiting for Kevin to say, "even in death, Hetty managed to squeeze more money out"
I won't be surprised if robots can eventually clone your signature up to the amount of pressure in your strokes.
You just describe printer
bro i can’t even clone my own signature
Or better yet, copy is it but make it a little different, with the exact amount of believable variance. Now that's scary!
That was the silliest attempt of fraud i've ever seen
I thought she would have faked the signature too bad but I never thought about it beeing to good. So I was confused about the huge standard deviations in Kevins signature. I guess they are plenty of other ways to compare signatures? Like loops and other types of strokes
“Vsauce, Kevin here, and I’m about to bust”😂😂😂
Good thing my teachers didn't know that in high school, cause I always made sure to make a perfect match
I've had to re-do my signature for stuff because it wasn't close enough to what is was being compared to
Any and all wills are subject to being probated. Though the courts and lawyers end up getting the bulk of a probated will, a significant amout such as it was during this event would have still been quite extensive.
This is an amazing series, Kevin!
RUclips: This is controversial
Kevin: No. Have some more.
I loved the comparison to the other cases at the end. I think this is also the reason why she was never convicted of fraud because the standard of proof is much higher than in civil court and they would have needed more concrete evidence that she made the forgery herself.
They could have just aligned both pages and shined a light through it
Yay another video
You really made this one count
I love your vids but I miss the old games and paradoxes
Me too
He probably ran out of them, and found another interesting topic. Personally, I love these, and they feel more complete than the early paradox videos.
Nobody's going to point out why someone would void all future wills, and then make a future will?
Was going to say that! Not just that but who would lock out their future decisions rather than just choosing not to make said decision?
If they suspect that someone will force them. Or due to paranoia or brain problems.
@@asdbanz316: Reasonable point to be fair, though at the same time I can't help thinking that you're then shifting the question forward to be "is someone forcing you to make this will now?" Similarly for the sound mind part too!
US State voting committees need to watch this video. They might finally learn that any one signature is not going to be the same from one sample to the next. This might prompt them to finally remove it from voter registration cards.
Worth noting that forensic handwriting analysis is no longer considered legitimate.
was the background music you used in the beginning of this video from the game Death's Door?
The beginning of the in vid ad has a flaw, doom scrolling doesn't end.
“V suace Kevin here and I’m about to bust” ah yes
My signature can vary pretty wildly. Some letters disappear and sometimes I draw some letters slightly differently. I sometimes get a bit nervous thinking about someone doubting it
This video is almost in stark contrast to a VSauce video I just got done watching that explained using probability to prove something is not always as "cut and dry" as it seems. Whenever some "expert" claims that a probability is "one in a gazillion" (gazillion = some number over one million), my red flags start going up.
On my break of studying for statistic exam and this comes up haha
Vsauce! Kevin here, and I’m about to bust!
Is Morning Brew any better than other news feeds? I'm trying to detach myself from social media and only absorb useful information during my breaks/in the morning.
VSAUCE Kevin here and I'm about to bust
This video makes me appreciate my high school statistics class so much. Thirty years later and here I am watching videos featuring standard deviation.
I love to recommend youtubers who commit to science and education.
May I?
Elizabeth Holmes 🤣
Thanks for this wild story. One so rarely hears of women in the field of "weird, mean super-genius who wears the same thing every day"
Now that's a title worth clicking
Was an awesome quote...
hay quá Phúc ơi, nổi cả da gà luôn nè, thấm vào từng mạch máu
After a major life event in my mid 20's I intentionally started forming the first letter of my signature differently. I also write slower and remarkably more legibly. My signatures from age 13-24 are very different from those of my late 30's. The younger me had jobs where I certified with signature countless times a day. p.s. My hand is not maimed.
The auto generated chapters had me flabbergasted.
I like your guitar amp circuit 😁
Basically secretly teaching us statistics, 1 day after my AP Statistics final at school. Convenient.
"V sauce, Kevin here and I'm about to bust" *video starts buffering*
Google doesn't want you to know
im literally learning about charles peirce at university rn thats crazy
Great video as usual. More true crime please. Very poggers.
Hetty's greed eventually played out to a boondoggle for Charity, through her daughter. The lord works in mysterious ways - as U2 said. ;-)
Well I know who I want to testify for me if ever I'm accused .
Thank you. ^_^
That courtroom was a clash of titans Jesus Christ
Damn, here I was proud that my signatures are all perfectly identical to each other and in reality some nerd could claim it was faked? So I've been undoing myself by being consistent and using something I can perfectly repeat rather than just generally repeat? I better change my signature!
Vox AC30 circuit diagram - a most excellent English guitar amplifier released in 1950s. Nice to see - but in no way capable of doing logic! Anyway geeking aside - excellent and interesting story that I knew nothing about. Ace video!