Colorado State University Releases Its Most Active Initial Forecast (2024 Hurricane Season Forecast)
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- Опубликовано: 5 май 2024
- Colorado State University released its 2024 hurricane season forecast. It's the most active initial forecast (In April) since the university began making seasonal hurricane forecasts in 1995.
Colorado State is forecasting 23 named storms...11 hurricanes..and 5 major hurricanes.
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Chapters:
00:00: Intro
00:54: Colorado State University Forecast
02:05: Florida Hurricane Forecast
02:56: Percentages For Hurricane Impacts in Texas, Alabama, Maine, New York, North Carolina.
03:50 Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly In Pacific
04:45: La Nina Forecast from Climate Prediction Center
05:25: Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly For Atlantic
06:37: Analog Forecast For 2024 Hurricane Forecast
08:17: Model Forecast For 2024 Hurricane Season
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Not meant to scare anyone. Just passing along the forecast and taking you behind the scenes of how they came to this conclusion. Thanks for watching! - Jonathan
Yeah there's some optimistic people unfortunately.
peace and love from NC
This is TOTAL NONESENSE. We are at HISTORICAL LOWS for hurricanes. This idiot is using WIND GUST SPEEDS which is garbage. .Sanfir simpson REQUIRES steady straight line winds of 1 minute or longer OVER THE US MAINLAND AT LANDING. And NOT OUTLYIG ISLANDS-MAINLAND. Many of these so called historical canes NEVER HIT THE USA AT ALL. This dorky also is using mid ocean winds which is total nonesense. TOTAL GOV SCAMSTER
Last year your CLOWNS used a small inland COVE to scam us with so called RECORD WARM WATERS. What are you going to use THIS YEAR-YOUR BATH WATER
Whatta SHILL for global warming scam. PAY MORE TAXES SO WE CAN SURVIVE
Galveston County Texas here! Praying everyone is spared this season...🙏🤞
I remember one year there were 30 named storms. Not one of them impacted St. Croix where I live. But as you said, it could be a quiet season but it takes only one to make it a bad season. We definitely have to prepare. Thanks for the update. !
You’re welcome! Great advice. That was 2020. Thank you for watching! - Jonathan
This is TOTAL NONESENSE. We are at HISTORICAL LOWS for hurricanes. This idiot is using WIND GUST SPEEDS which is garbage. .Sanfir simpson REQUIRES steady straight line winds of 1 minute or longer OVER THE US MAINLAND AT LANDING. And NOT OUTLYIG ISLANDS-MAINLAND. Many of these so called historical canes NEVER HIT THE USA AT ALL. This dorky also is using mid ocean winds which is total nonesense. TOTAL GOV SCAMSTER
I live in Puerto Rico and have experience several hurricanes and tropical storms. It’s horrible with Major Hurricanes. It doesn’t matter how prepared you are when is a Major Hurricane it is total devastation . When Hurricane Maria 2017 , almost category 5, it was catastrophic. We always have to be prepared just in case!
Absolutely. Will be watching closely for you guys. I know thing still aren’t back to normal after Maria. Just awful. - Jonathan
Boricua empieza a ir a Walmart desde ahora y a llenar esas cisternas con mucha agua.
Interior Central Florida here. No more Coastal Living for us. When we want Sand and Surf we just visit now 😎👍
That’s where I’m at too! Probably for the best. - Jonathan
I couldn’t understand why in early 2022 I couldn’t get a house deal to work out in Fort Myers, Florida !!!!
Were still cleaning up from the last one ...
Ugh I know. It’s terrible. Just hoping they all stay out at sea. - Jonathan
Tuning in from Houston, Texas 🙂 Crossing my fingers and toes we're all spared catastrophic landfalls this coming hurricane season..!
Right there with you!! Thank you for watching! - Jonathan
I'm with you on a calm year. Been a wet early year so far. Sure hope it isn't as hot as last year. Have a Blessed Year 🎉🎉🎉.😊
Me to
This is TOTAL NONESENSE. We are at HISTORICAL LOWS for hurricanes. This idiot is using WIND GUST SPEEDS which is garbage. .Sanfir simpson REQUIRES steady straight line winds of 1 minute or longer OVER THE US MAINLAND AT LANDING. And NOT OUTLYIG ISLANDS-MAINLAND. Many of these so called historical canes NEVER HIT THE USA AT ALL. This dorky also is using mid ocean winds which is total nonesense. Last year only two or three were actual qualified canes. TOTAL GOV SCAMSTER
Texas is not in the hotspot this year
I can't believe its almost hurricane season already! At least we got you covering all of this stuff and giving everyone great information all the time!
I know. It’s crazy how fast it comes around. Appreciate you tuning in! - Jonathan
North Houston also tuning in. Subscribed, will stay tuned for your updates. 😊 Thank You.🤠🇨🇱
Welcome to the team! Appreciate you! - Jonathan
Watching from West Coast Fl. Praying we don't get too tore up. Thank you for the forecast 😊
With you on that. Thanks for tuning in! - Jonathan
Port Charlotte Florida. I went through Ian.
I can’t even imagine what that was like. Hope you’re doing ok now. - Jonathan
Sending you lots of love from Puerto Rico. I am dreading this hurricane season after the impact that Maria and Irma had on our island, but I very much appreciate this sensible approach to reporting.
Thinking of you guys. Just a terrible storm. Thank you for watching! - Jonathan
My parents experienced hurricane Alicia in August 1983 just a few years before I was born and that year had only 4 named storms in addition to the fact it was the first named storm that late in the season. That and hurricane Andrew are a prime example of as you mention why regardless of how active things turn out or the forecast everybody should be prepared as much as possible.
Live in Utah, but grew up on the Texas coast.
Wow that’s crazy. It only takes one! - Jonathan
Blessings from Jamaica 🇯🇲
You as well! - Jonathan
Same
Very warm waters in the Atlantic and La Niña forming in the Pacific
Tuning in from Trinidad 🇹🇹 Thankfully we’ve been spared many times in terms of cyclones, but strong tropical waves and the ITCZ really do a number on us! Thanks so much for the update and will stay tuned for your upcoming videos 😊
Welcome to the team! Yeah your flooding has been pretty crazy the last couple of seasons with the ICTZ. - Jonathan
Thank you for your passion and dedication to the art of forecasting....this saves lives. Pine Island, Florida
I’m in Florida too! Really appreciate that. Thank you for tuning in! - Jonathan
Hello from the NW FL Panhandle. Thank you for all the weather info without the scare tactics. Will definitely keep watching from now until November.
Really appreciate that! Welcome to the team! - Jonathan
Thanks for your elaboration. Very informative. I tuned in from The Netherlands, Europe. Cheers
Welcome! Glad you found it informative. - Jonathan
checking in from South Texas!
Welcome! - Jonathan
😲80% for Texas for hurricane!!!!!!’
Thank you, the for sale sign will be up soon!
We love where we live actually, thanks for keeping us updated
I’m glad you live! That’s 80 percent for a named storm a little lower for a hurricane but still not the greatest! Thank you for watching! Jonathan
Thanks for the updates from West Palm Beach Florida.
You’re very welcome! Thanks for watching! - Jonathan
Watching from New Jersey. We had our one, Sandy. That's enough.
Totally agree. That was awful. Have family there. - Jonathan
On the end of Long Island, NY here. So good to hear some science in how this will work out and will be working to make sure we are more ready this year.
Always a good idea! Be safe your way! - Jonathan
Jonathan, thanks for your expertise! I’m in central Florida. Appreciate what you do! Keep up the good work 😉
I’m in central Florida as well! Thanks a lot for tuning in! - Jonathan
Great content. Second video I watched from you and I decided to subscribe. Probably smart since I’m an FL resident. Just some friendly advice, we understand you’re giving us the non-biased data as clearly as you can with no fear mongering. It’s ok mention it, but maybe not as often as you are. Thanks for the content!
Thank you for the advice! I appreciate it! Will do that. And welcome to the team! I’m in central Florida so will be watching closely together. - Jonathan
Tuning in from southwest florida
Welcome! Hope things are going well post Ian. - Jonathan
Knowledge is power and preparedness is just smart, I live in the USVI, so thank you
You’re very welcome! Thank you for tuning in! - Jonathan
Thank for you information
You’re welcome! - Jonathan
Excellent report, thanks.
Thanks! And thank you for watching! - Jonathan
Hello 👋 Jonathan thank you buddy for the weather updates in the 2024 hurricane season 🌎🇺🇸🇵🇷⚡️🌀🌪🌧 thank you have a great day Eddie
You’re welcome! Thanks for tuning in as always! - Jonathan
@@just_weather thank you for keeping me and Puerto Rico 🇵🇷 informed about this hurricane 🌀 season
Watching closely from Roatan in the Bay Islands of Honduras! Iota and Eta were near misses, and hopefully that’s the case again this year. Thank you for the excellent, non-sensational content. Really valuable 👍🏻🙏🏻
Welcome! Thanks for tuning in and I’m glad you found it helpful. Will be watching closely all season alongside you! - Jonathan
Watching you from the MS gulf coast.
Welcome! Thanks for tuning in! - Jonathan
Thanks for the weather report hopefully not too many hurricanes. from ontario canada.
Agree!! Thanks for watching! - Jonathan
I started doing analogs based on Enso years AND tracks, I see this season being like 04, 05, 2017, and 2020 all wrapped into one
That would be terrible. - Jonathan
NBC 2 in Houston were predicating a named storm striking Texas this season as early as June.
Very informitive, thanks😀... Nova Scotia, Canada. Fiona and Lee left some indelible unpleasant memories!
I can’t imagine. Thanks for tuning in! - Jonathan
Florida here.
Welcome! Same! - Jonathan
Hows it looking for jamaica?
Florida watching!
Welcome! Same! - Jonathan
Tuning in from Central TX, this Hurricane Season looks like it will be bad! Awesome Tropical Update, Jonathan!
Ugh unfortunately it does. And thank you! - Jonathan
Thank you for such excellent forecast. Hopeing they miss P.R. still can't forget María in 2017 😪
You’re welcome! Hoping that’s the case at well. Maria was just terrible. Thank you for watching. - Jonathan
Sarasota, FL
Thank You.
You’re welcome! / Jonathan
Checking in from south Carolina here
Hello! - Jonathan
I enjoy hurricanes, only because I live in the northeast so by the time they make it up here, it's just a really long, really strong thunder+windstorm, which we don't get to experience as often.
That’s very true! - Jonathan
Outstanding :)
Praying to God, we don't have another Maria here in Puerto Rico 🙏🏻 🙌
The oceanic anomalies are really concerning as you can see the cold line, firing up beneath those warm waters.... This season could be another example of 2020....
Even a weak La Nina could be a troublemaker...
Example is 1964, which had the peak anomalies of -0.8°C, but multiple areas in the ATL basin like Haiti, Cuba, Guadelope, Martinique , Miami were struck by Cleo....even Jacksonville, which wasn't hit by a full blown hurricane since 1880 was decimated by Dora and of course, Louisiana was also bombed by Hilda and Isbell also tore through Cuba and Naples....
Hence, we should be prepared because even a weak La Nina like of 1964 could be troublesome....
All very good points. - Jonathan
Clearwater Florida here...thank you, hopefully they will turn and miss us. Will make sure to buy lots of supplies this season.
Tampa area is way overdue for a landfall
Great advice! I am hoping the same. - Jonathan
Why only one university research of this 2024 hurricane season?
There are dozens. CSU is just one of the most well respected ones. - Jonathan
We tired in Louisiana 😩
I feel you. - Jonathan
Prayer from South Texas 956
If only one hurricane forms during the entire season, and it hits where you live, then it's an active season. These April projections are interesting, but essentially meaningless. We don't know where the storms will go or how intense they will be when they get there. All you can do is prepare, and tune in each day to see what's out there.
Couldn’t agree more! - Jonathan
Uh, I understand the sentiment, but that's not what active means.
Maryland near the DC area here, and I hope the Mid-Atlantic gets by again this year.
Hi! I was wondering why tropical systems get shredded by wind shear if wind shear supports severe thunderstorms. I never really understood that.
Storms in hurricanes need to stay vertically stacked. In a hurricane there is a low at the surface and a mid level circulation. If those two are separated the heat engine doesn’t work.
Regular storms like wind shear because of the single storm remains vertical with no shear the rain will falll right into the updraft and choke it out. So the wind shear helps to push the updraft away from the downdraft and tilt the storm allowing it to breathe so to speak. - Jonathan
@@just_weather Thanks for the info!
From New Orleans, can the models forecast the amount of African dust?
They can! - Jonathan
From Florida, and appreciate the science based not trying to panic anyone approach to your videos, thank you!
My limited understanding is that some of the steering and sheer factors vary between even neutral and La Niña patterns, and you mentioned Irma was an anomaly because it got strong early and kept heading west…and I think 2017 was a La Niña year? Assuming La Niña forms, could that be part of why there’s such a high statistical likelihood of a hurricane getting close to Florida on the CU prediction?
You would be right on the money with that. La Niña seasons tend to be a little more impactful…but then again El Niño brought us Andrew and Dorian. Still more often than not La Niña seasons tend to get things closer to land because the Caribbean is much more active. I’m in Florida too and will be watching it closely with you! - Jonathan
LaNino tends to allow more storms to come inland into Gulf of Mexico.
That is correct. - Jonathan
Checking in from Central Florida. Information is power. Thanks for the information.
You’re very welcome! That’s where I’m at as well! - Jonathan
With Hurricane Ian effects still evident in my area ....... a concern .
Ugh I hate that. - Jonathan
Thanks for update. Seems EVERY year the meteorologist predict active seasons.
Unfortunately they’ve been accurate with that. Haven’t had a below average season since 2013. - Jonathan
NE Floridian here. BRING IT!😂
Tuning in from a barrier island in NE FL, let’s hope most of these are fish storms
Completely agree! - Jonathan
🤘Sudbury Ontario Canada Eh🇨🇦☃️
Hello! - Jonathan
Hey Johnathan! Did you ditch the whiplash channel? You can't escape us! 😂
Hey!! Good to see you! I still have that one, but have been focused on growing this one for my job. So glad you found this one for now! - Jonathan
Just looking for Florida to have another I named Storm which we may see alot more than one. But if not or so just stay prepared.
this el nino was very short compared to the previous one.
It was! - Jonathan
let the fun begin 🌀❤️
Ugh. Lol. - Jonathan
@@just_weather 🤗🤗
The Meteorological Organization names hurricanes. Not NOAA.
No the WMO comes up with the names but NOAA assigns the name whenever it becomes a tropical storm. I was saying they determine that criteria. - Jonathan
Southwest Houston.
Welcome! - Jonathan
Grew up there for 21 years close to Westbury area.
Hotter oceans will mean stronger and wetter storms. Hotter temperatures in the Western US mean more drought and more fires. Not sure what’ll happen in a particular place in a particular season, but trendlines are concerning.
Very much so. - Jonathan
I would rather shove snow and endure the cold weather
Florida
Welcome! - Jonathan
Luelsa from South Africa
Hello! Welcome! - Jonathan
Central Florida, so glad to find a scientific approach.
Glad you found it helpful! You should watch WKMG News 6 if you don’t already! - Jonathan
Florida needs to catch a break... Daytona Beach is still repairing the seawall from Ian, we don't need anymore!
We really do. I’m in Orlando and was out there after Nicole. So much damage left. - Jonathan
The perfect storm... just when more people live on coastlines, home prices are at a super-high, and insurance is also at a super-high. I live in Florida and got hit last year by the hurricane. One likes to think lightning won't strike twice in the same place. Who knows?
What about west coast- California and Mexico???????????
Should be a little quieter than normal. Still it only takes one storm. - Jonathan
Every year is the potential worst hurricane season now! I'm more concerned about getting my hurricane information from Colorado than about a possible hurricane.
It’s just where they set up shop. No last year wasn’t expected to be the worst. - Jonathan
I’m in Florida
Same! - Jonathan
Aruba 🇦🇼🌊🌴
Welcome! - Jonathan
Anyone just completely out of any tropical zone like Europe just curious about hurricanes? I always see all viewers being in proximity of tropical activity.
Hope in Texas the lakes fill up.
Would be great for a couple of weak ones to help the drought! - Jonathan
Bring them on ready for some waves here in Florida
Central florida
Same!! - Jonathan
Why is some university in Colorado doing this? Is some college in a state gets hurricanes not equipped with the expertise? That's like the University of Miami delivering some winter snowstorm/blizzards projection.
Ha weird right? But doesn’t matter where you forecast from as long as that’s your expertise! - Jonathan
😮 he sounds like why files guy
Is there a geographical, wind pattern related, or some other natural reason why hurricanes tend to miss a direct landfall on the west central gulf coast of Florida?...even the graphic you displayed from other years showed this tendency.....or maybe that's just me trying not to be an anxiety ridden mess for the entirety of hurricane season :D
I dearly hope that they all just miraculously avoid land 🍀
Honestly just the luck of the draw…but when there is a dip in the jet stream they tend to feel it and curve south like Ian and Charley. If there is a nothing to push it east then it will lift north like Michael. The steering mechanism has to be just right to guide into your area. Let’s hope it never becomes just right. I will say that significant surge is still possible even if the storm stays just offshore. - Jonathan
What about Louisiana
Your percentages are 84 for a named storm 46 for a hurricane and 23 for a major hurricane to track within 50 miles of the coastline. - Jonathan
North Dakota
Welcome! - Jonathan
Graceville, Florida 32440
1992- You forgot about Hurricane Iniki. It was major..................
That wasn’t in the Atlantic. That’s why. This was Atlantic focused. - Jonathan
Like usual expect a mid-season correction.
I mean when you get closer you have more info. They have been pretty good with the initial though. - Jonathan
🙋🏻 hurricanes never a part of my life, there was a little something last year with Hillary that rolled up into SoCal and that was it. Let's check it out.
That’s true! That one was crazy! - Jonathan
Harvey took out my home…been in the new hm 4yrs and still building around it…ohhhhhh well this is the NORMAL!!
Unreal. Hope you’re doing ok. - Jonathan
How is Florida not on that storm path list lol
It is! There’s a whole section dedicated to it in the video. - Jonathan
Waiting for our local news here in Palm Beach County to start setting their hair on fire weeks before hurricane.... trying to scare people into a frenzy. (fear sells). You can always tell the newbies around here... they start stripping the selves of water and plywood when they see a tropical storm about to hit land 500 miles away. Just stay calm and prepare 😃
Great advice! - Jonathan
Jet stream says differently.
What do you mean? The jet typically doesn’t influence these storms. - Jonathan
Yes it does
They've been saying "its an active year" every year since before 2013, but nice try
And it has been active since 2013. Look it up for yourself. - Jonathan