betting odds are not historically super accurate in comparison to polling. for instance, in 2016, Clinton had a nearly 90% chance of winning on election day across betting odds.
Betting markets were very bullish on GOP Senate candidates who lost in the 2022 midterms. The kind of people betting online on elections are, as a group, to the right of the general public. Yeah, they want to make money, but that doesn't mean they are purely rational actors capable of removing all personal bias from their decisions.
Polls were very bullish on the Democrats in 2020 who were highly overestimated in that election and almost lost. The kind of people that conduct the polls on elections are, as a group, to the left of the general public. Yeah ,they want to paint an accurate picture, but that doesn't mean they are purely rational actors capable of removing all personal bias from their discussions.
@@talglikman7276polls were spot-on in 2018. There's tons of polls out there, and many of them are run by pro-Republican groups. I suggest you check out the Silver Bulletin. Nearly everyone who talks about "the polls" are wrong because they're really only talking about a few polls. You've got to look at the aggregate of *all* of them and also put those polls in historical context.
@@daniellarusso8012 What mattered was the number of votes that influenced the electoral college. Like in 2016, Trump lost the popular vote, but won the electoral college. I don't know the number off the top of my head, but it wasn't anything more than 500,000 votes I believe. But it was not 7 million. Also in 2016, Trump was projected to lose in the betting markets, he was only given about a 25% chance then.
What are you basing your claim that GOP bets more on? Especially as election betting is illegal and to bet on the website you need a VPN, which I would imagine would be the younger crowd’s domain. Beside the fact that with sports betting at least, betters are mainly younger
Harris is going to smash this loser because people are wise to his act and unlike what the TV would like you to think, people are not that stupid and remember the last time he was in charge and how shitty everything was.
@@SoldierXfreedom The 2016 polls were largely accurate... All of the polls showed she was ahead by around 3%. She won the Popular vote by around 2.5%. so a 0.5% margin of error. What the polls failed to capture was non-college-educated voters, and last-minute voters, both groups that turned out for Trump. Most Polling agencies have adjusted their methodologies to account for these demographics
Yeah but your argument is stupid. Betters are far more accurate, detail oriented, and stats oriented than pundits. That's how the whole sports betting industry works.
@@paulmckenzie4057 "Most Polling agencies have adjusted their methodologies to account for these demographics" Why would they do that when you just claimed they were accurate? Which is it?
betting odds are not historically super accurate in comparison to polling. for instance, in 2016, Clinton had a nearly 90% chance of winning on election day across betting odds.
This time they was right
@@SunnahLife-w5l They were right in 2020 too. Sometimes they are right, sometimes not. They are a volatile indicator of presidential elections.
Betting markets were very bullish on GOP Senate candidates who lost in the 2022 midterms. The kind of people betting online on elections are, as a group, to the right of the general public. Yeah, they want to make money, but that doesn't mean they are purely rational actors capable of removing all personal bias from their decisions.
Polls were very bullish on the Democrats in 2020 who were highly overestimated in that election and almost lost.
The kind of people that conduct the polls on elections are, as a group, to the left of the general public. Yeah ,they want to paint an accurate picture, but that doesn't mean they are purely rational actors capable of removing all personal bias from their discussions.
@@talglikman7276polls were spot-on in 2018. There's tons of polls out there, and many of them are run by pro-Republican groups. I suggest you check out the Silver Bulletin. Nearly everyone who talks about "the polls" are wrong because they're really only talking about a few polls. You've got to look at the aggregate of *all* of them and also put those polls in historical context.
@@talglikman7276 Winning Senate control and the Presidency by 7 million votes is "almost lost"? Lol, ok. :)
@@daniellarusso8012 It was more like 200,000 votes.
Lol.
@@daniellarusso8012 What mattered was the number of votes that influenced the electoral college.
Like in 2016, Trump lost the popular vote, but won the electoral college. I don't know the number off the top of my head, but it wasn't anything more than 500,000 votes I believe. But it was not 7 million.
Also in 2016, Trump was projected to lose in the betting markets, he was only given about a 25% chance then.
Why are the Harris & Trump graph lines mirroring around a central axis in the polls?
Betting odds seem to favor GOP more than Democrats likely due to more GOP voters willing to gamble than democratic voters
What are you basing your claim that GOP bets more on?
Especially as election betting is illegal and to bet on the website you need a VPN, which I would imagine would be the younger crowd’s domain. Beside the fact that with sports betting at least, betters are mainly younger
OH MY,THIS IS SO DIFFICULT,WAITING FOR THE RESULTS AND WONDERING IF HONESTY HAS BEEN MORE PREVALENY OR CHEATING IS IN PLACE!!!
It is legal actually to bet on elections in the US, it just became legal to bet on elections a few weeks ago.
Also don’t forget that Elon Musk was promoting this shit on Twitter and he’s very very biased towards Trump lmao
Harris is going to smash this loser because people are wise to his act and unlike what the TV would like you to think, people are not that stupid and remember the last time he was in charge and how shitty everything was.
Are you even living in the United States?
@@tylerian4648 right in Texas.
Betting markets are a reasonable indicator of the sentiments of bettors; nothing more.
Trump is toast. :)
Yeah but so are polls. Polls really aren’t any more accurate as shown by 2020 and 2016.
@@SoldierXfreedom The 2016 polls were largely accurate... All of the polls showed she was ahead by around 3%. She won the Popular vote by around 2.5%. so a 0.5% margin of error. What the polls failed to capture was non-college-educated voters, and last-minute voters, both groups that turned out for Trump. Most Polling agencies have adjusted their methodologies to account for these demographics
@@SoldierXfreedom The polls aren't limited to a demographic of gamblers. :)
Yeah but your argument is stupid. Betters are far more accurate, detail oriented, and stats oriented than pundits. That's how the whole sports betting industry works.
@@paulmckenzie4057 "Most Polling agencies have adjusted their methodologies to account for these demographics" Why would they do that when you just claimed they were accurate? Which is it?
Garbage level take
TRUMP 2024!
Trump is a twice impeached, adjudicated fraud, defamer, ray pest, insurrectionist, 34x convicted felon. :/
🤢🤢🤢🤢🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮