Nick Bostrum - Where are All Those Aliens?
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- Опубликовано: 29 сен 2024
- Most scientists assume that the universe must be populated with innumerable alien intelligences and civilizations-after all, there are billions of galaxies each with billions of stars and planets-we humans can't be so special. The universe should be teeming with life. OK, that's the argument. So where are they? How come there's zero evidence?
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Nick Bostrom is a Swedish philosopher at St. Cross College, University of Oxford known for his work on existential risk and the anthropic principle. He holds a PhD from the London School of Economics (2000).
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DID YOU KNOW THAT YOUR CELLPHONE IS BEING TRACKED AND LISTENED TO 24/7? Your cell phone is traceable even when it’s completely shut off ruclips.net/video/EVHf4UgH9g0/видео.html
@@PREISINGPRODUCTIONSsince1912 😱🤯 shocking right? I know.. Did you also know that *Humans* is capable of hurting & doing evil things to one another?? 🤯🤯🤯 *mind-blown* , I know right!? LOL 😂
@@thedduck Did you know governments can be just as corrupt as individuals?
Edward Snowden is a traitor and a coward to hide from justice. Nothing he says has any importance.
@@xspotbox4400 Hhuh what a weird logic you've got there. But lets see..
1. "the government is *generally* comprised of many individuals" (can't rule them all if you're just one person right.. lol).
2. "An individuals can be corrupt", so.. therefore
3. "the government can be corrupt too."
Hey you're right, you have a great logic after all.. 😂
Anyone who thinks there is intelligent life on this planet has obviously not read the comments section..
😂😂😂
Social Media is the great filter.
The great filter!👍
So hilarious good joke sir
We are proto intelligent
We see them all the time but we are in denial. The evidence is everywhere.
Maybe missing one or more requirements for intelligent alien life
One word: Stealth
What’s the first thing man did after he invented military jet aircraft? He tried to make it invisible to others.
One more word: Encryption
What’s the first thing man did after he invented electronic communications (analog and digital)? He encrypted them. I’m fairly sure that most alien communications would be indistinguishable from cosmic background radiation or utilize quantum entanglement or better.
Fermi didn’t take these factors into account. If he had, the near 100% probability that advanced civilizations would utilize stealth, encryption, and then technologies that we may be hard-pressed to comprehend means that WE WOULD NOT SEE THESE CRAFT UNLESS THEY EXPERIENCE A FAILURE.
As for those who believe that interstellar travelers should be too advanced to crash, just look at ships on earth. We’ve been floating around the earth for millennia, and guess what. SHIPS STILL SINK.
Fermi was missing variables. Major ones.
Hey Lost and Found. Thanks for sharing your interesting perspective.
John Brzykcy Thanks for reading. But, it seems more like a historically-based logical imperative than just my point of view.
I mean, would you take your shiny new interstellar vehicle to planet inhabited by a nuclear-armed species that’s engaged in tribal warfare and not be sneaky about it?
We’ve created a rough neighborhood, and any advanced species that has managed to retire their doomsday clock must think we are a cosmic liability.
@@LostAnFound I agree with you. I like your statement "any advanced species that has managed to retire their doomsday clock must think we are a cosmic liability." Unless this "advanced species" could somehow "redeem" humanity. John in Florida
John Brzykcy Have you read Childhood’s End by Arthur C Clarke?
@@LostAnFound No I have not read that book by Arthur C Clarke. I'll have to check it out.
It's quite simple really. Intelligent live is too sparse and the distances are too vast. Not to mention the time scales between each civilization.
What most of us tend to forget is the 4th dimension: time. I think that the probability of life is high. The probability of intelligent life is a lot lower. The probability of intelligent life existing simultaneously in one galaxy and able of traveling the incomprehensible interstellar distances to meet, is next to zero.
Probably there has been intelligent life the past few billion years and perhaps there will be intelligent life again after we're long gone. But simultaneous with us? And in a distance that leads to effective communication? I don't think so. We as humans have been around 200,000 years. If we would have started communicating right from our beginning our signals would only have traveled twice the diameter of the Milky Way. Not very far in a cosmos that is roughly 95 billion lightyears across.
Time is tied with our sun? So do u think intelligent life could be in some other universe?
@@SnarkyMarx What is?
@@SnarkyMarx Either you don't understand me or I don't understand you. Please elaborate.
@@SnarkyMarx A wormhole is a theoretical concept. They only exist in mathematical equations from Einstein and Rosen. Maybe they exist for real. We have never seen one in real life.
@@SnarkyMarx Which brings us back to this podcast: "Where are All Those Aliens?"
Finally I learned something.
It was my understanding most scientist think it's ridiculous to assume we are somehow alone.
Plus that filter explanation doesn't make much sense IMO (but hey, I'm not qualified to argue here at all).
I think it would be totally awesome to find life anywhere else.
With so many instances of non-technological and non-intelligent life in the diverse history of earth; might help to find technological alien civilizations by first finding non-intelligent life on other planets in galaxy, especially in case of technological alien civilization that might be hiding from us? To do so would have to find ways to detect non-intelligent life on other planets.
Friendly aliens would build a beacon to show the universe there is other life but they would prefer to plant in some empty corner very far away where there is nothing that points to their own planet.
@@hyperduality2838 I don't understand very well the connection. I only wanted to point that perhaps there are signs of alien civilizations but they could have made them hard to spot out of safety concerns.
124 blind aliens believe there is no life on planet Earth. Obviously they haven't checked the comment section below
Mars having single cell life would increase the probability that we got past the filter. Bad news would be finding life more advanced than ours.
No, that first sentence doesn't make sense; you still seem to be missing the core of that argument.
Right now, we think one of the reasons for why we don't see aliens everywhere is that we think evolving life is hard and almost never happens. If evolving life turns out to be super easy, and it happens all the time, then it becomes harder to explain why no one has colonized the galaxy yet - unless we have underestimated how hard it is to go from where we are to us colonizing the galaxy.
There are a lot of potential filters between "habitable planet" and "advanced interstellar civilization". For each of these filters, we have some estimate of how likely passing it is for any planet - and all these probabilities multiplied together give us a prediction of how many advanced aliens we should see. Since we have observed 0, the number we get from multiplying our estimates also better be close to 0. If our model predicted thousands, it would be wrong, and we'd need to adjust the probability estimates, until our model fits all observed data.
If we now find Martian ~bacteria, then our estimate for how likely it is that life evolves on a planet at all will go up - we now know of 2, rather than 1 planets where bacteria definitely evolved!
But we still have *observed the same amount of advanced alien civilizations* - still exactly 0 - so our other probability estimates need to be adjusted _down_ to explain this observation as well as before.
That means it has just "become less likely"* that e.g. animals on some planet evolve higher intelligence, but also e.g. that intelligent species get annihilated by asteroids. And we're one of those intelligent species.
* in our heads as rational agents trying to apply the laws of probability, to reason under insufficient data
Seems like he doesn't really grasp Fermi's paradox, he left out the other "part" that makes it a paradox.
There is no Fermi paradox. Just Fermi’s mistake.
the biggest and most extraordinary enigma, even more than the universe and aliens, is our mind, of which we still know very little, much less than what it has understood about the universe.
Spoken like a true intelectual. This guy says, “Where are all the aliens”, when scientists find undiscovered species on this planet all the time. Only three things one needs to know about this “theory”. My answer: Yes, there is life outside of Earth bc 1. We have only discovered 5% of our own oceans, 2. Here we are, and the “smartest” scientists in the world say, “It’s impossible for anything to travel faster than the speed of light, which makes it impossible for “us” to even make it outside our galaxy if we can barely make it to the moon, and 3. To say, “Where are they all then”, is as stupid as ignoring we find new discoveries in space, practically, daily (just bc it doesn’t make the news like the Kardashian’s doesn’t mean it didn’t happen).
Just bc the smartest humans can’t tell you more than they have, doesn’t mean you ignore what they HAVE told you. Your answer is in the very science that exists....
And yes, the human brain is the most complex “thing” humans have ever discovered in the known universe
Many comments but the reality is we just don't know.
It took 1.8 billion years to create an intelligent form of life; and we’ve only been sending out signals and exploring space for 100 yrs is there any wonder it appears we are alone!
There are star system billions of years older than ours. There could be beings that are 100's of thousands...100's of millions of years more advanced than us.
@@poksnee there could be beings that are those time-scales “ahead of us” but not necessarily more advanced than us. The dinosaurs were around for over 100 million years and not once did they evolve into forms able to build radio-wave technology. We have been around less than half a million years and have already sent voyager 1 and 2 out past the orbit of Pluto. Intelligent life may be an anomaly. Conversely for 90% of human existence we have lived as intelligent but relatively technologically primitive beings. We are assuming that we will just go on advancing indefinitely as opposed to technological advancement creating existential dangers that need more and more care to prevent human extinction i.e. nuclear warfare, bio terrorism, etc. It could be that we have only 10,000-100,000 yrs from today before we destroy ourselves or pollute our planet to render it inhospitable and advanced civilizations are actually a kind of progress trap that leads to the eventual extinction or collapse of that species.
@@onebillionseconds Excellent points, thanks.
Excellent ! Mr. Kuhn's interviews are of such a very high standard - Just fantastic to watch - I don't think anyone has ever done anything like this before.
I honestly don't know where he gets the energy from to make so many - I would have "clapped out" after preparing and shooting the 15th interview!
Many, many thanks......all the way from London.
Yes, Kuhn is a good thinker, but my eyes tend to glaze over when he interviews theologians or other *pure* philosophers, or the discussion involves *god* in some way. That said, I have a soft spot for Kuhn because my father was a philosopher :-)
Let's get this alien thing figured out. 2020 is the year!!
It's now 2021
sorry...i was rooting for ya...
2022
2023
2024
I have a very simple statement to propose. Think about fire. Fire is very unique. Fire is only possible on Earth. Or at least possible on a planet filled with oxygen. But do you have any idea how rare an oxygen-filled atmosphere is? That wasnt even our first type of atmosphere. So, maybe humans are only possible on Earth. Maybe intelligence is only possible on Earth. Maybe only OUR level of intelligence is possible on Earth. If there is other life, which im sure there is, it wont breathe oxygen, so it probably wont appear anything close to humans. The truth is, humans arent really supposed to be here. We are not inevitable. It took SIX accidents for us to appear. SIX. That is extremely unlikely to happen elsewhere. We are very very unique. Like fire. You wont find us anywhere else. Like fire. Notice how you never hear scientist discovering fire anywhere else in the universe. Intelligence may be as rare to find out there as fire is.
We had bacteria (or archea) that produced the oxygen we have in today's atmosphere.
@@ferdinandkraft857 Could we make artificial pumps, powered by wind and sunlight that would transmute more oxygen into environment, let's say 21% instead of 20% on average? We would breath better, but than again, entire atmosphere might ignite, lol :)
Although challenging what many would ''like to be true'', Nick Bostrom points are profoundly sound and accurate. As counter intuitive as the idea is, lets hope we don't find any sign of extraterrestrial lifeform. :)
Why are the skies empty? Put that question to the crew of the USS Nimitz. You have a lot of catching up to do mr scientist 👍🏼 they are already here. They’ve been here all along.
Crank
Black ops military tech at best
One looked like a reflection on the ocean, the other maybe a bug on the clear camera cover. If it was serious at all they would have tried to shoot them down.
The arrogance is that this is intelligent.
Intelligence in this sence is pointing out the difference between humans and other animals.
Other animals arent building radio transmitters or space ships that can be detected on other planets
@@bravesirrobin5839 well that is one way to look at it.
@Jimbus Rift you are missing or ignorant of the point; 100.0% of all other life forms on the planet also are not.
@Jimbus Rift 34214. Woo, look at me 😎
I think the point is that humans, as a species, are all capable of the same level of intelligence/achievenent. We all possess the identical tools. A huge disparity in upbringing, education and environment drives how each us uses our potential, but the point is we have that potential. Even the most underachieving in society possesses and can comprehend language, understanding, art, poetry, reason and sentience.
Very interesting perspective on the great filter.
Nick, scrap the theories and speak to the US government mate! They have all the info 😂
Except how to run the government
I agree, not only the US but all around the world as well. There have been thousands of sightings of aliens and spacecraft. The sighting at a school in Melbourne was witnessed by over 200 people. The Pentagon is now owning up to their coverups and saying UFOS are real. How can this speaker say for sure that aliens have not visited?
Pretty scary if we humans are alone in the cosmos.
Yet it makes humans special.
why?????
@S Gloobal You wish.
"... Both possibilities are terrifying."
@@bozo5632 but why???
my god another one!
he said no ET has been here on Earth. well how the F does he know. I mean really. how does he know that to be the truth?
They just admitted to having crafts from out of this world, so whether they were manned or satellites who got thrown out of orbit or something, it seems like some sort of out of the world tech has been here at least :S
www.ibtimes.com/pentagons-ufo-unit-release-findings-after-consultant-suggests-world-vehicles-3017189
Thats his opinion. He is just going by his intuition and evidence
@@Jimmy-B-"evidence
" , there is no evidence
that ET has never been here, yet thousands of people have seen the silent aircraft since the 50s, some even before the 50s . so he should not make such statements because he has no proof to show. without proof his "statement would not be allowed in court.
You don’t science, do you buddy?
@@sideswiped6874 "There is no evidence that ET has never been here"
That's not how burden of proof and falsifiability works. That's like saying you can't tell me unicorns don't exist because you don't have evidence that they never existed.
How arrogant can we be to believe we are the only really intelligent creatures within this galaxy, or in fact beyond!
Look how far we've progressed in a short period of time with travel by sea, air and land! Look how quickly computers have shrunk from what would fill a room into what fills a jacket pocket and is thousands of times more powerful, the list is endless! Space travel is still in it's infancy and we've had our fair share of accidents and loss of life, but we're getting there slowly but surely. What we are forgetting however is Stealth Technology, again it's something we are only just scratching the surface of! Who is to say that there aren't intelligent societies in other galaxy's that have mastered not only interstellar space travel but cloaking devices as well! Star Trek anyone?
If we are being visited and who is to say we are not, then it seems common sense to maintain invisibility especially if having been studied over a period of time we have been labeled as knuckle dragging morons with twitchy trigger fingers belonging to weapons that can destroy our whole planet, along with any space tourist daft enough to announce themselves to their hosts!
why don't you just READ a few books by Timothy Good and Richard Dolan as well as watch the various disclosure conferences by military and pilots?
Typical of todays so-called experts who refuse or ignore history
They're paid-off by politicians (soulless elites) to classify the truth. This guy is a lot smarter than this; he seems to have a difficult time on lying considering the truth is so amazing; it's priceless if only it didn't cost his career or life. Get a high-powered telescope and you'll see the truth for yourself! Not kidding-- their everywhere today!!
@joe Martin.the day after roswell is a good book too but yeah above top secret is a great book
You can fool some people some of the time, but you can't fool everyone all of the time. If the evidence for alien visitations was so potent, it would be so obvious asking for evidence would be foolish. But that's not the case at all. The problem is there's not a shred of evidence for this, except for a dozen blurry photos of objects that don't necessarily require an extraterrestrial explanation. Evidence for aliens would be to recover physical spaceship parts, alien body's, more and much more clear pictures etc... that would satisfy me, until then stop being delusional and believing everything is a conspiracy....
@@elvisrodriguez2239 Yes, Nick Bostrom is paid off by politicians to lie about all the aliens. Obviously!
Why are we searching for intelligent life out there somewhere , when it seems so extremely rare here
just Heard a counter argument which seems to be making a divergent point..
What if our part of the Universe is really nothing special (--for others to visit)& instead Life has arose multiple times in other planetary systems (& failed fc)
What if we aren't so special & Also Life is a common ground for most unknown planets/binary star's out there
After billions of years we might get lucky. Lol
ruclips.net/video/AA733aVjk2M/видео.html
Yikes I slipped this link, to another page - swarm, in here.. Anyways I am looking forward to hearing from you this Turtle woman, chit chat on the possibility (abundance?) of xeno lifeforms with Neil degrasse Tyson.
Really curious there, hope there's an impasse, so far those Seti guys, are catching at straws
🤔And only to come and think they ve been 8n radio telescope (pretty possibly on VLT, and /or Arrays of antennas) since the 70s,and so far they've came up with nill...
I put it this way that when we move from one city to another city there are so many buildings on the way but our highway is a straight way to our destination without entering each and every building on the way.Similarly try to find the space highway.All the planets,stars,etc are just the site seeing objects..If humans find the highway in space for space travel then we can travel more in very less time.Nature of space highway may be different..Right now we are travelling in a space dessert..Watching Oasis..Does it makes sense?
Charming idea, however everything we have learned about space tells us that it is a very dangerous place for life and very difficult to travel across. Every planet we have studied is inhospitable to life without an artificial habitat. Perhaps God made space this way to keep us on the Earth.
@@jamese9283 and what planet does God live on?
@@AdarshRajCR7 If God made the universe, then He must dwell in a realm beyond the physical universe.
Got to love listening to really intelligent life forms!
I know im asking the wrong place but does any of you know a method to log back into an Instagram account..?
I somehow lost the account password. I love any tricks you can give me!
@Jace Jeremy instablaster =)
@Finnegan Cassius I really appreciate your reply. I found the site thru google and im in the hacking process atm.
I see it takes quite some time so I will get back to you later with my results.
Anyone who has witnessed a UFO and its ability to move beyond the speed of any manmade craft, stop instantly, move up and down etc etc etc, as I have back in the 1960s, knows without a doubt that we are are not alone. Eventually, the truth will reveal itself, because that's Nature....
Agree but for most people, they need some scientific authority to tell them before they accept as true.
They give up their own observation and reasoning to authority.
But believing in an authority is the realm of religion, not science.
Unidentified flying object (UFO) is precisely that - something in the sky that the observer cannot identify. Apply Occams Razor and the likelihood of the object having anything to do with ‘aliens’ is vanishingly small. Not understanding the limitations imposed by the speed any craft would need to travel and the astonishing length of time it would take to travel here from any region remotely likely to host intelligent life leads gullible, badly informed people to misinterpret visual phenomena they can’t explain.
@@kyoglesage You - like so many others - have a very limited concept FC. Just for one or two mentions - the 'aliens' may be very highly advanced androids, in which case there may be no limits to the distances they can travel. Or, they may be another manifest form of life-force altogether, such as an energy form. There are just no limitations to what is possible. After all, imagine how your distant ancestors would have reacted to being told that it was possible to transplant and replace organs, including lungs and heart - that it is possible to view and converse with others anywhere on the planet through a thing called The Web - how by gathering various substances and liquids from the earth beneath them an aircraft could be created to fly them around faster than any bird. We humans are like it must be for most other animals to try to understand and figure out how it could be possible to fly to the moon or build a TV. You are only fooling yourself FC to make ridiculous such statements.
Fair enough, but funny, for scientists, they just seem to be incapable of asking the far better question of 'why do they not appear to us OBVIOUSLY, in a way WE want them to be seen by us, and the way WE want so as for us to be able to INTERROGATE them, and stick pins into them and so on? LOL
If i had one wish it would be to travel through space looking for ET and when i think that this is an impossibility I feel a bit sad :(
There is no Fermi Paradox. It’s Fermi’s mistake. Fermi’s premise was based on a constant exponential growth of life that would thus be able to colonize the galaxy in a few million years, leading to the question “so where is everyone?”. The problem? There is no such thing as constant exponential growth in the known record of life. Life grows rapidly, then plateaus and stabilizes, or dies off. Every life form we’ve observed follows that pattern. Human population is expected to plateau in the 2050’s-2060’s, then decrease. There is no paradox.
Plot twist: he's one of them.
I am writing a book about this. We all evolve to other dimensions with Ai and computers. Turns out we rather stay in the warm glow of the computer and Ai vs. space travel. We would rather virtually travel to other solar systems because the graphics get so good they are indistinguishable from reality. So why go to space again? Remember, we already do this RIGHT NOW!
Oops 😬I guess there’s a “filter” or two after us. Enjoy your day in the 🌞 !
I was struggling on how to word the same thing politely but I seriously could not, well done.
I suspect there are many filters, spending the money, getting the whole planet to agree, just a couple.
he has no clue - like most orthodox thinkers? Arrogant and clueless to think we are alone??
You didn't listen
If this is up-to-date where did Mr Bostrom get his hair from?
I noticed that immediately. Hair transplant perhaps?
He got it from Walmart.
@@NightBazaar en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No-hair_theorem
I noticed that too! Gee, how observant we are to have caught a glimpse of a human in evolution.
Wowwww!
Myrta Rivera the footage just looks very dated aswell. I guess we all follow Nick Bostrom.
Multiverses. Ancient Aliens. Mythologies. Sci-Fi. Cornfieldcircles(they help us probably, cause we have not to put all leaves down) and so on. They are there also when we not sees them directly. Think greater than your universes and also tinier. We are part of something greater.
7:18 _Bob Lazar recoils in Moscovium_
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Quite clever & i take sole responsibility for finding this funny, if consumer disagrees, sue me.
@@marcsalzman8082 That's the spirit!
Don't know why I always have to be the one to jump in an clarify things for everyone, but here is the answer.... We don't meet them because those species so advanced that they could visit us, know it is most interesting to just observe us, and there is nothing they gain by letting us know of their existence
,
Didn’t the Americans just report via the NYT that they poses a craft not made on earth?
Yeah. It doesn't prove anything scientifically but so much was left out in this conversation
Brandon Saunders its highly doubtful.
Yes. But the owner of the Spacecraft renegotiated with the Creditor and got it back.
According to some contractor who allegedly worked for the government program investigating UFOs.
Science isn't needed, the evidence is already there, many documents over the years refer to SAP special access programs run by DOD companies like EG&G(special projects division)/Skunk works/etc.. that are actively researching recovered tictacts or crash material. It's all private because there is no gov or congressional oversight and the existence of deep black projects can be hidden for eternity. You can read the Wilson memos where the reality of these projects are attested to by a Navy admiral.
What is so special about us,to be the only form of live on the universe????this immense universe is full of live,yuo no need to be so smart to understand,we are not the only ones!!!!!✌😁
The odds of human beings existing, the odds you or I could come into existence within this classical Newtionion universe are "exactly "
Zero, but.....here we are right "now"
The probability of something that has already happened is always 1, i.e a 100% chance.
The universe we see is like a womb. Civilizations start here but then go somewhere else after birth. We are like a fetus in a womb. We feel around and find no other fetuses. But we should not conclude that none were ever here. In time we will also be born and leave this universe.
Thx for the reupload, one of my favs.
Guys a philosopher not a scientist or cosmologist. Not that anyone is qualified to actually rule out extraterrestrial life but he clearly is not
We are the story that ends itself.
I have a filter between my house and my in laws.
Funny! Good sense of humor. Thanks for the feedback
starman starman .. That is a perfect explanation for why we do not see them or hear them with specialized equipment designed to Watch and Listen ... We are on their list .. and We are still developing ..
This video disappoints because its premise is that an expert is going to give insight that we don't already know. Instead, it is just two guys shooting the bull about alien life, as would drunk college students in a college dorm.
"Most" scientists? How do you know? Why would aliens have to be like us? Why not something based on other elements besides carbon?
it is ok when we start from basic elements
One was in the Oval Office from 2008 to 2016..
This question has been answered in so many ways by so many folks...no answer convinces me...
They want to stay away from us because we are violent.
@@kiinyuum8001 ruclips.net/video/DXY23gsHXXo/видео.html
I like my answer. We have no evidence of ET because we have no way of gathering evidence. We can't even look for them.
IMHO all we actually know is:
1. They don't seem to be right here right now.
2. They don't seem to be pointing powerful radio beams directly at us.
3. They don't seem to have changed the sky in any way we might recognize.
And all three could be wrong lol.
That leaves a huge number of possibilities.
All it really rules out is a few (to my mind) crazy ideas, like galactic civilizations, Kardashev scale civilizations and FTL travel.
Space is big. ET civs will likely be small.
@Huh Bub Eat me.
@Huh Bub Did you not notice my caveat, that "all three could be wrong?"
Also, eat me.
The prime directive is actually a thing.
We , humanity get to choose ,otherwise we will make them our gods .
We are the gods everything is divine.
We get to self determine.
They will come ,when we are ready ,first we must be care takers of our precious planet .
it would be too arrogant to assume that "the Little Rock" we are living on now in this infinite universe is a place that's huge enough to be noticed and visited by other kinds of creatures from another planet. What's the possibility of two life form happening to find each other in the far far far corner of the universe?
They maybe have visited many many planets on which they had found no signs of life form.
Why is it that these people always refer to us as intelligent, and that we are looking for other intelligent life? We may be incredibly primitive. I think we need to get over ourselves 😀
What i find interesting is that there has been billions of different species on our planet. But only one species that is intelligent. We dont even know if we sre smart enough to not be extinct before we become advanced enough to truly explore other planets. I kinda get the impression that life out there might b abundant but intelligent life might b rare.
No evidence? Thousands of docs, couple hundred very credible observers, radar hits, DoD video from Navy fighters. At a minimum you must explain all that, rather than simply ignoring it
Another yank
They're been coming here for thousands of years!
That's too funny!
Although I tend to agree with Nick Bostrum that intelligent life might actually be rare (the assumption being supported by having no sign of intelligent alien life and the mind boggling time spans it took on earth to evolve complex, even multi cellular and especially intelligent life) but he doesn‘t do those justice who think it might be quite abundant because he just says that hey think it‘s not rare because there are so many planets. That‘s not their point. The argument is that there are many planets _and_ that so far it has always proven to be a good scientific assumption that we are in no way special or in a special place. And to believe being special has indeed proven wrong again and again. So the counter argument is not as weak as he makes it look like.
@@carrickdubya4765 What do you mean by „it“? What do you think needs a proof?
Well so far, we know we are the most special planet in the Solar system, and as time goes on, the further we can see...and hear...the more and more special Earth ( and our Solar system ) is becoming. It's nice to speculate, but untill we can find hard evidence that intelligent - or ANY life is common.... then Earth will remain looking very special indeed.
You should watch the sky more often. We will be surprised.
Why are you even asking these questions? They have been here for hundreds of thousands of years. Annunaki anyone? Why modern humans exist. They made us. Wtfu!!!
Tomas Neshoba.holba clearly you haven’t even researched it my young Padawan
Looks like somebody hasn’t been reading the news these days???
i would love to carry the discussion more on the great filter part. It seems that we are heading just there, see what is going on around us, how we have developed the means to destroy ourselves (climate change, nuclear power, AI etc). Its obvious that the filter is ahead of us and we are heading towards a cliff.
That could just be a second filter that eliminates the incredibly rare intelligent life that gets past the intelligence filter.
Ask the Pentagon this question in 6 months. You’ll probably get a more precise answer.
Why 6 months?
I’m calling the Pentagon today
@mars laredo oh thanks
@@Cursed_Bower Because that's the estimation of how long it could take to change the classification of documentation to be able to officially release that information to the general public. Or at least that's the way I understood it. Right now, there's only speculation. Some think it will be to announce the existence of aliens and alien spacecraft. Other's think it will show that other nations have aircraft, and perhaps spacecraft, technologies that are more highly sophisticated than we thought.
The pentagon know about many things.... secret topics
Portland and Seattle is where you'll find you some ALIENS
can't miss them 24/7. Just spot the super bright Green Aurora from their stench illuminating the night sky.
Or is it possible that ( whatever ) created the infinite cosmos and creates life forms on the various planets constructed it in such a way so that we do not cross paths for whatever reasons that we could not or will not ever understand ......
Hey there... your viewpoint is very interesting.
They can communicate with us telepathically in my experience.
I'm curious to hear your experience if you don't mind telling it, if you rather not do it on a public forum like RUclips I understand.
Aye. Do share
They've been visiting here for a while now, and according to The NY Times, we may finally be getting the first concrete proof.
Really??
People lie. All the time.
@@pureruckuspower2165 Indeed, they do.
@@pureruckuspower2165 Especially if it makes them money!!!
@@pureruckuspower2165 yes, whats your point?
You listen to a few of these guys try to stumble through an answer to "where are the aliens" and realize quickly there's only a handful of stock scientific hypothesis they all use. Distances too great, life common but intelligence is not, the Great Filter, and so on. There's about a dozen possibilities they mix and match up. Maybe one of them really is the answer but I kind of doubt it actually. I think it's got something to do with beer.
Wouldn't you rather have a beer with a friendly alien than worry about a species that produces individuals like Trump and Putin? I would. ;-)
I do, by the way, strongly support the notion that all cosmic civilizations have two things in common: the all have the equivalent of meat balls and the equivalent of alcoholic fermentation. Let's drink to that!
How many of you remember the strange aliens from the "Lost In Space" TV series back in 60's?
I remember the humans and the spaceship and wasn’t there a robot? I don’t remember the aliens though. Hmmm 🤔
Robot Warriors
He is talking bullocks.
I don't get the great filter thing, for me it's an overly simplification, I think there were lots and lots of filters before us and probably lots of filters after us still.
I don't like it either. I don't think it's likely that there is one particular thing that has killed billions of civs. And I don't think it's likely that any collection of things has killed ALL of the civs.
It's full of unfounded assumptions, one being that there actually aren't lots of civs. But there easily could be a hundred or a million in the Milky Way and we would not know it.
And then so many people treat it like a real thing, like a known scientific fact. Very annoying.
@@bozo5632 That's true. I think the idea is that if there was at least one with a big enough headstart (like a million years or so) and a drive for expansion (or less drive but a bigger headstart) it would be visible. But even if there were a relatively decent number of civilizations that's not like we searched a lot, also who knows if sufficiently advanced civilizations would be so easy to spot? Do we even now what to look for? We have some guesses, but think about people in the 16th century trying to guess how to spot a XXI century civilization, they wouldn't even know that radio communication is a thing. Also, a civilization could spread far and wide and don't make a significant change in the stars that they inhabit, they could be communicating like crazy through long distances even through direct laser or light signals that we wouldn't still be able to detect, if they discovered some other forms of communication that we don't even know of, it would be even harder. They could discover ways to generate energy that don't even depend on stars and are much more efficient and silent. I mean, barionic matter seems to be 3% of the universe and until fairly recently it was all we knew, we only recently can barely see planets and we couldn't distinguish between a completely artificial alien mega-structure and a planet if we spot it in our telescopes. There's a lot of assumptions on how civilizations work (mostly based on science fiction up to the 80s), the phases they should go to, that they will inevitability build a Dyson swarm or self replication probes (for all we know there could be a lot of probes undetectable even in the solar system, etc). And we only have one data point to extrapolate on!
I mean, there are so many assumptions baked into this whole Fermi Paradox thing. You gotta buy a lot of premises to believe it to be a real problem. But the idea of a single or a couple great filters is the one that is most ludicrous I've seem be tossed arround. I mean, life is hard, building an interstellar empire is hard, there are many, many ways in which it could get wrong. Also, it isn't like evolution is this linear progretion that will inevitably lead you to chemistry from single cell to multicell to inteligence, to civilization, to space exploration. That are a lot of turns and twists and "regressions" depending on random mutations and the changing of the environment.
@@SrValeriolete Exactly. I agree completely.
Something I say all the time is:
We only know three things:
1. ET doesn't seem to be right here on Earth.
2. ET doesn't seem to be pointing powerful radio beams directly at us.
3. ET doesn't seem to have changed the sky in noticeable ways.
Note the word "seem." Any or all three of the things I think we know could be wrong. (But I really doubt it.)
The Fermi Paradox assumes they should be right here, doubtless wearing tin foil leotards. But that's a wild and baseless assumption. Without FTL, interstellar travel will be slow and thus un-economical, forever, even for ET. (I think it's probably reasonable to assume FTL is impossible.) So, Enrico, where are they? They're at home, doing ET stuff we couldn't possibly see.
If they exist. I can't swear to that part, but I reckon they must. Hard to guess how many.
@@SrValeriolete I just wanna say I loved reading your comment, you have a lot of good ideas.
Life can evolve anywhere. We are just an example of the countless scenarios in witch life could possibly develop. Adaption Is evolutions greatest skill, as is shown with everything around us and our present day knoladge. And similar in humans, adaption is our greatest skill. Evolution is not an independent procces, our ancestors even primitave ancestors needed to learn and fail for us to be what we are today.
(Like you mentioned, evolution is not an instruction manual) this is were I can agree the term "intelligence" should be applied. The ability to adapt in an environment and take action for survival. The method, strategy or motivation doesnt matter because this would have all been learned from the environment.
This is were I believe the filter should be. Any species that are not able to adapt and compete will fail, as seen in humans, a bigger brain rather then body worked. This ability also comes with problem solving, wich is not even seen in some species on earth today. Do you understand why I choose to put a "filter" there?
@@SrValeriolete Here's another thing I always say:
Internet lag makes interstellar civilization very difficult, and large interstellar civilizations pretty much impossible, and also useless, not to mention dangerous.
Due to lag, when a civ sends out settlers to another star, they're not making a colony, they're making an uncontrollable near-peer potential adversary, one they can't possibly trade with or benefit from. I think ET is going to think twice before populating the galaxy.
"We know that we haven't been visited by Aliens" do we?
Pretty much ... near 100%.
@@thecarman3693 FALSE- Anyone who takes the time to study the UFO question can clearly see UFO's is a very real phenomenon. What these so-called scientists are asking is why have not the UFOs landed on the White House lawn which is really a silly question. So I say how about study the subject matter before you cast your vote that would be a scientific mind at work.
ruclips.net/video/1gaIuejsMUw/видео.html
@@NoopooHorg Your comments are pure nonsense filled with strawmen arguments. UFO means UNIDENTIFIED. It does not default to unworldly origin as so many readily accept. And as for FLYING, that's 100% debatable, as many clouds (lenticular) and planets have fallen under that description. (The tic-tac UFO being a perfect example.) Even OBJECT is misleading, as one cannot confirm that what is being seen is actually physical, such as a rainbow. (Do you know that rainbows are not actually physical objects, but simply reflections and refraction of light? Yet we all see them. And they can be photographed. Please look up the phrase 'Virtual Image'.) I have studies the subject of UFO's for many years and found that no evidence of anything extraterrestrial has made its way to the surface. And if you choose to study it (without a preconceived result) you will come to the same conclusion. Tons of witnesses and arguments have produced as much hard evidence as that of searching for ghosts, bigfoot, yeti, Nessie and whatever other folklore you can come up with.
@@thecarman3693 i doubt very much you have studied this subject with an open mind. How many people have you interviewed that have claimed to have witnessed ET's in person?
How many UFOs' have you seen with your own eyes or talk to people who have? Because I have personally seen a ship while driving and it was massive that no one could mistake for a Planet silly person.
The Government has admitted that UFOs are a very real phenomenon, plus the Government has been known to cover up this subject matter. Other Governments have already admitted this is a real phenomenon. Even Dr J. Allen Hynek who was charged with investigating this subject for the Air Force in the 1950s said this was a real phenomenon and that the Government is covering it up. Dr Steven Greer's work proves the cover-up.
The current World we live in millions of people claim this, the Ancient World people claim these things, there are countless videos of these things, countless pictures of these things, radar tracking of these things, the evidence is overwhelming as a subject requiring scientific research but nope Government will not fund this subject openly. Even scientists on this RUclips ch will say based on the size of the Universe ET's must exist. The Government has admitted that at least 5% of UFO claims are to be taken seriously.
As for so-called hard evidence, I'm sure it is there if this wasn't a subject matter that the Government wasn't choosing to cover-up as the hundreds of military vet's have claimed who had personal knowledge of this subject matter.
@@NoopooHorg OK, so your answer as to where the evidence lies is .... a conspiracy. (Wow, like I never came across that before. Try studying Occam's Razor, it'll blow your mind.) As for how many people have I interviewed, that's irrelevant. I don't have to interview anyone to know that Leprechauns don't exist --- THEY must provide the evidence. (Besides, 1000 cups of weak coffee all poured together does not make strong coffee.) And I have never said UFO's don't exist (try reading what I type). They are REAL. However there is NO evidence that they are extraterrestrial. (Stop with the strawman arguments, they are worthless. In fact, they show you have little to nothing to support your position.) Your 'evidence' is nothing more than hear-say and speculation. Yes, there is a project Blue Book --- so what? Where is the actual piece of alien spacecraft to be examined? ... by whoever wants to! If you're claiming there is evidence without you actually producing it or analyzing it, you are doing nothing more than making a baseless claim. And just what does "taken seriously" mean? Studied more closely? Perhaps investigating sightings as being of foreign origin (like Russia)? That phrase means absolutely nothing with regards to their origin. I have been an avid astronomer for more years that I'd like to think, and one thing that's pretty much universal among astronomers is the silly notions people have about the Earth being visited by aliens ... both now and in the past. If you understood the distances involved, the energies required, the time issue, relativity you would think such ideas as not just ridiculous, but those of a mind in need of therapy.
What about Steven Greer and CE5 is that not already proof? Why don't you look into it
Yeah, right. (Backs away slowly.)
@@thecarman3693Are you dump if you can ignore this? ruclips.net/user/drstevengreer55
“We also know there are no extraterrestrials visiting us” - our government sure seems to disagree considering they’ve been studying UFOs for over 70 years and still do.
no they aren't
the therorist yes, they are. Many high level military officials who worked for those departments have been very open. Luis Elizondo and Nick Pope to name a few.
@@thetherorist9244 Even outlets like the New York Times and Newsweek have confirmed it. www.newsweek.com/pentagon-lot-more-classified-ufo-videos-ex-head-secret-government-program-1517003
@@uria702 sorry bud but you have been a victim of propaganda .....i know its hard to understand
the therorist lol. Yeah every trained observer from every country who has come out is victim of a worldwide conspiracy to fool us into thinking UFOs are real. Forget the science and the data.
He keeps saying that we definitely have not been visited but I don't see him producing any evidence for that.
Plus, "the absence of evidence is not evidence of absence". In fact, we could even *be* the aliens, having been started on our evolutionary path by an alien species that seeded life here!
How can he produce evidence if there isn’t any. I think he is trying to say if they are/were here they would make it obvious and not play peek a boo
What "great filter?"
There's no reason to even suspect we are alone in this galaxy. We might be, but we do not have the first clue.
But that's not how it works. The null hypothesis is always the assumed one. You can't disprove a negative, and hence while you can claim there's lots of reason to believe alien life exists in our own galaxy, you can't say that the fact that there's a possibility means therefore that there is life... The idea of a great filter is very much possible, since we have not yet found evidence of life out in the universe, much less the type that can send out electromagnetic radiation (radio, microwave etc) or visit other solar systems and galaxies etc ; that suggests that there's numerous barriers that might prevent life from acquiring intelligence.
In other words we could have managed to squeeze through that filter somehow, or we are an exception. In any case the universe does seem devoid of life a nd until evidence fornthe contrary is found, the null hypothesis reigns.
@@onielrodriguez9194 How is a great filter the null hypothesis??? If anything it's the other way around. If anything, the only data we have (Earth) refutes it.
@@bozo5632 oh no... a great filter is not the null hypothesis, it's simply a hypothesis as to why we don't see evidence of intelligent life. It could be wrong, there may not be a filter at all, but it's a hypothetical argument by people who dedicate their life to searching e.t. life to explain why we don't see it. That's all...
@@onielrodriguez9194 Imho the reason we don't see ET is we couldn't see them with the technology we have. They're far away. Even a few light years is enough distance to hide ET from us.
We are building better telescopes all the time. We will start getting answers soon, one way or another.
@@bozo5632 I think there's a very high probability life exists within our own galaxy, even intelligent life is very likely. We're an example of evolved life, therefore there's no reason to suspect intelligent life doesn't exist elsewhere. The point is we can't get ahead of ourselves and say dumb stuff like what can be read in the comment section of this video.
i believe JESUS CHRIST IS LORD OVER ALL John 14:6 John 1:1 John 3:16-18 we're in Matthew 24:7 birth pains towards THE END John 6:40-44
Try to wrap your head around this: If the universe is indeed infinite, there is a 100% chance that all sorts of possible and impossible combinations about everything are constantly happening. Including life as we perceive it.
Yet another reason to doubt it's physically infinite.
And impossible combinations automatically makes it a possible combination because you are making it relative to whats is possible this categorizing the impossible as an “outlier” without saying its an outlier thus it is also at a non-zero probability of happening, i think thats what you meant to say
Nick, plse stop shutting our eyes and wake up!
This video is an experiment. Your reactions are the sum looked for.
Hmm? You suggest 00:03 mins in “What we observe”? If we are in an Advanced Simulation..... then what we observe is not What is actually there! The advanced simulation generators, whether intelligent linked or alien linked is irrelevant! If any advanced life chooses to remain anonymous, then they allow The simulation to continue, until it is concluded the purpose of The simulation has been achieved. I observe on my Computer screens all sorts of wizardry non of which is identifiable as “What I Observe”? What I observe is the Brain decoding from its lifetime of indoctrination!? How do we get free of this indoctrination to “Truly Observe”!? Not where are the aliens.... But how do we (i) connect in a viable way with that higher intelligence? Which is obviously in control!?
“Regarding the passage on p. 163 of the 'Gleanings'; the creatures which Bahá’u’lláh states to be found in every planet cannot be considered to be necessarily similar or different from human beings on this earth. Bahá’u’lláh does not specifically state whether such creatures are like or unlike us. He simply refers to the fact that there are creatures in every planet. It remains for science to discover one day the exact nature of these creatures.
Shoghi Effendi, Lights of Guidance p. 478”
Some people that call themselves scientist do an injustice to those who are scientist .
Ask Eric W. Davis.
a great filter of following divine central authority unity could explain the Fermi paradox? that we do not see advanced intelligent alien civilizations spreading from home planets into galaxy because none have chosen to follow divine central authority unity prerequisite for becoming an advanced intelligent space faring civilization?
The following is deliberately provocative:
I love science, but regarding the aliens most scientists definitely has a taboo and a problem.
There is now since the Nimitz UFO encounter and general disclosure of alien phenomena a need for an awakening in the scientific establishment to the evidence of alien superior entities observing and interfering with humanity worldwide.
The problem with science or rather mainstream scientists regarding their total denial of the fact that the aliens have been here for ages:
Science got it wrong most of history!
In 1610 the Vatican with its vast library of knowledge, maintained that Earth was the center of the universe - despite the evidence to the contrary - mostly out of arrogance, narrow mindedness and fear. Today the Pope has been replaced by some dogmatic scientists who cling on to status quo regarding the aliens threatening our illusions of being at the top of the pyramid.
UFO and alien researchers and experts doing the job that should be done by scientists are daily insulted and ridiculed by arrogant and on ufos ignorant scientists fooled by CIAs lifetime long disinformation program as part of the coverup.
the philosopher Socrates argued that humility is the greatest of all virtues. His observation was that the wisest people are the first to admit how little they really know and the first to see the fools in people claiming to know it all.
We dont know if the universe is round or flat. Even the big bang is being questioned due to the helium, lithium, matter/antimatter, proton decay discrepancies (and common sense). We still don't fully understand time, infinity, the singularity, gravity, the quantum theory - entanglement and paradox, quantum teleportation, quantum fluctuation zero point energy of the vacuum, dark energy, dark matter, parallel universes, extra dimensions, the shape of space time, chaos, ball lightning, UFOs, ESP, telepathy, remote viewing, consciousness, reincarnation, ghosts, telekinesis, etc etc. How on Earth and in space can some scientists then pretend to be so certain about everything (aliens included), well knowing that year 3020 we will laugh about our ignorance of today.
How can we and politicians trust, that science has all the correct answers right now - knowing that tomorrow the flock of sheep will be running in the other direction?
Beliefs and rules are made to be broken and much of science is about proving/disproving what we already know as a fact through common sense, intuition or massive amounts of circumstantial evidence.
Scientists are human as everybody, with subjectivity and biases, in need of approval, scores, PHDs, funding, publications, peer review careers, reputation and with fears of rejection etc
This is why they like all majorities are mostly wrong. We just wont know that until decades or centuries later. The truth and revolutionary changes almost always come from bold, fearless weird individuals and geniuses or grassroot movements.
In the face of a major paradigm shift and crisis for humanity and Earth, we need more of the later. More Galileos who dare risk everything for the cause of enlightenment and true progress.
So scientist: Its time to face your taboo and ask WHY you deny and ignore the UFOs and aliens phenomenon, while Pentagon and the military industrial complex spends billions of $ studying them and recovering crashed saucers - not to mention the trillions of $ spent on back engineering alien tech? If you follow the money you will know they are very real.
In 1970 The Colorado Airforce Acadamy included in a training book for pilots a chapter 33 about space science and UFOs, where it concluded that Earth could have been visited by alien controlled space crafts during the last 50.000 years! It also questioned the notion that our physics are correct and complete - especially E=mc2, since at that time 50.000 reliable UFO observations defied our physics.
In this all decisive decade it's of paramount importance, that political, scientific and religious dogmas and preconceived notions be put aside in the thinking out of the box search for solutions - traditional as untraditional. If that involves exploring the possibility for help from and mutual beneficial cooperation with superior benevolent aliens, then so be it.
We need a new scientific methodology to research this difficult and uncontrollable phenomena as suggested in these videos:
The scientific methodology on UFO's
A call for a sciense of ufo's. Alexander Wendt. TED talk.
We need a science of UFO's. Alexander Wendt. RUclips.
In the 20. Century we discovered:
that the universe is about a trillion times bigger than we thought
That its expanding
That it may have started with a big bang
That its 13.8 billion years old
The theory of relativity
Quantum mechanics
Black holes
Flight
Space travel
The nuke
Nuclear power
Antibiotics
The computer
The cell phone
Satelites
The internet
Aliens
Etc etc
Probably 100 times more than in the 19th century
How many times more will be learned and discovered in this century over the twentieth with gene mapping, crispr technology, AI and quantum computing?
How much in our theories about quantum mechanics, nuclear and astro physics will have to be revised?
Do you dare to calculate it?
Throughout history there has been a notion and illusion, that we now know virtually all there is to know. How wrong we were. How wrong we are. How wrong we will be. The problem is that we dont know what we don't yet know. But aliens (probably multi stellar) who are a 1000 or a million centuries ahead of us will have brains, knowledge and tech totally incomprehensible to our primitive brains and infant civilization. Indistinguishable from magic and they can easily through mind control and other prevent the masses from getting hard proof if that is needed for their agenda. If they dont want you and I to get the solid proff WE WONT GET IT - period!
It's entirely futile to try to make any sense of what we see in our skies and in space (and cave paintings), without putting our brightest OPEN minds with the greatest imagination to the task. The greatest challenge and likely reward to science, imagination and humanity ever.
Now - is it very wise to keep assuming much to be impossible - such as interstellar space travel, alien civilisations coming here interfering in human affairs and us terra-forming other worlds and bringing life to them as the aliens very well may have done here millions of years ago?
Einstein said imagination is more important than knowledge. So please imagine, think and STUDY THE ABUNDANT EVIDENCE BEFORE judging, ridiculing and rejecting. That's real science.
To much time is wasted fighting over whether they exist or not, when the real question should be how to mature to deserve open contact, mutually beneficial cooperation and the knowledge, experience, tech and wisdom needed to save humanity and our biosphere from serious damage and extinction.
Are you calling people liar's who have been taken by these Being's, There are already here like it or not they don't care, These Draco Race have Bunker's, Base's cave's Tunnel's underground, Unless the Army are dressing up as Alien's and taken people's out of their bed's and walking through wall's, putting people's into a trance, and they could have built Craft's, Halloween came early then Army's dressing up, as Alien's, that's thee other, reason, Or your just talking BS, and covering up, O the One's that are here have been here in Jesus day's living underground, in cave's and then living in pyramid's, Everything about Egypt is a Lie's, Pyramid's were also used for Energy, shared 2020/
for becoming advanced intelligent space faring civilization in galaxy, the great filter might be following a divine central authority unity?
If a Human Being is not ready to know The Energy Science to communicate with our natural way of the State of Brain Frequency . We didn’t complete Human deeds of leveling up our intelligence to understand and us and them 🙏🌻🌻🌻🌻🌻
The remarks about Martian life do not appear to be very relevant. Mars lost most of it’s water due to lack of a magnetosphere and lower gravity (38 percent of earth’s). It is a likely scenario that both Versus and Mars had simple life which became extinct due to loss of surface water.
We should search for life on close earth analog exoplanets. Humans are extreme outliers ( only species with advanced civilisation) on this planet. In other words, many planets in this galaxy likely have primitive life and very few advanced life.
There's a difference between what reality is and what we wish it to be. I'm afraid Mr Bostrum (like most) is guilty of constructing his worldview around a comfortable bias. Yet one should always expect the worst and prepare for it, so only pleasant surprises may await. For the bloody sake of our survival at the very least.
Human self-importance drives the belief that the Universe contains much more Life and intelligent Life (like us). Since we've developed sentience and high technology, and since the Universe is filled with billions of galaxies, each containing billions of star systems, then "there must be" other sentient, high-technological species elsewhere.
This conceit is quite similar to the notion of extraterrestrial beings resembling Humans - eyes, nose, mouth, spoken languages, arms, legs, etc.
Or there are great filters before, during and after and all along the way. We are but a blip on the cosmic time scale. To endure we must constantly adapt, something we seldom take into consideration, and something we are really slow at biologically. Devastating cosmic changes often occur quickly.
There is no good reason to think that only one filter exists. It might be a long series of many filters that exponentially decrease the probability of intelligent life so much that it's infinitesimally small.
And I say exponentially, because when you put several filters in series, one after another, then you need to multiply their probabilities to get the final probability for intelligent life. Multiplying makes it exponential.
Most likely, there is a filter at every step of new development and advancement. Which includes intelligent life itself, like ourselves.
Our filter is most likely nuclear war. An asteroid strike is also possible, but not very likely. Albert Einstein once said, "I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones."
We haven't renounced war. And there aren't many people trying to create peace and harmony between different countries and peoples. But there are lots of powerful people creating all kinds of quarrels and conflicts between countries. So, it's entirely plausible that nuclear war will be the death of us all, or at least the death of intelligent life and civilization as we know it.
This isn't a sure thing. But this has a sizable probability of happening. Which makes it a filter, rather than a wall. Some intelligent species will destroy themselves in these circumstances and some won't. And we don't yet know which one of these two we will be. This is yet to be decided.
The University of Hawaii estimates there is 8.7 million species of critters living on our planet ... not 8.7 million critters ... but 8.7 million species of critters. So if we are to be considered intelligent then we are but one in 8.7 million. Apply this to the Universe ... if we are found to be unique within our own galaxy ... then ... you will need to search 8.7 million galaxies and one ... to find our equivalence ... statistically.
Great Filter schmilter....what a load of nonsense....life is everywhere there is water......it's the damm distance that keeps us from knowing anything....