Three Charts Screaming Market Top!
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- Опубликовано: 16 сен 2024
- With the S&P 500 down 4.2% and the Nasdaq 100 down almost 6% this week, a classic September bearish rotation appears to be in the cards. Today we'll review three charts to address weakening price momentum, elevated uncertainty with a VIX above 20, and a Dow Theory non-confirmation which often occurs at major market tops. As a bonus, we'll also highlight the Hindenburg Omen which flashed an initial sell signal this week!
Here's our previous video on the Hindenburg Omen if you want to dig a bit deeper: • Hindenburg Omen Flashe...
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David Keller, CMT is President and Chief Strategist at Sierra Alpha Research LLC, a boutique investment research and consulting firm focused on helping investors manage risk through market awareness. He combines the strengths of technical analysis, behavioral finance, and data visualization to empower self-directed investors to identify investment opportunities and minimize behavioral biases.
Dave is a CNBC Contributor, and he recaps market action, interviews leading experts, and explores the relationship between investing and behavioral psychology on his “Market Misbehavior” RUclips channel.
Dave was previously a Managing Director of Research for Fidelity Investments, where he managed the Technical Research Department as well as the renowned Fidelity Chart Room. He also served as Chief Market Strategist at StockCharts.com, building on the work of legendary technical analyst John Murphy.
A Past President of the CMT Association, Dave is also a member of the Technical Securities Analysts Association San Francisco and the International Federation of Technical Analysts. He has lectured on technical analysis and behavioral finance as an Adjunct Professor at the Brandeis University International Business School in Waltham, MA.
Dave was formerly a Technical Analysis Application Specialist with Bloomberg LP in New York and was a regular contributor to Bloomberg Markets magazine. He is editor of the book Breakthroughs in Technical Analysis: New Thinking from the World's Top Minds, published in 2007 by Bloomberg Press.
Dave is a classically trained musician and student pilot, and resides in Duvall, WA with his wife and two children. He received degrees in Music and Psychology from The Ohio State University.
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Great to see you and get your view on the big picture
Thanks so much for watching D
Reminds me of a great show everyone loved called The Final Bar.... thanks for the methadone to help us through our withdrawals!
🤣😂
hahaha More to come my friend! D
Great Summary. There is always so much to learn and better understanding from the Master. Thank you Dave!
Appreciate the very kind words! D
This video caused the markets to go back up this week.
hahaha the Dave Keller Contrarian Indicator is born... D
Thrilled to see you again, Dave...what can we do to get you back M-F for a daily show?
In the works! D
QQQ < downward sloping 5-day EMA. This also tends to drag down BTC, USO, XLE, GDX, and SPX. The trend is still down until it eventually isn't.
Market feels guilty until proven innocent again! D
Thanks Dave! The Hindenburg Omen hasn’t triggered except for one more trigger?… so you’re telling me there’s a chance?
Yes, he said it takes two high readings within a month or 20 trading days so we have to wait for another high reading in the next few weeks.
hahaha I see what you did there. We've had a number of initial signals but no confirmed signal within one month. D
Great to see this weeks show and see you back on Dave! We miss the final bar 🥲
A new daily market recap show is in the works. Getting all the things lined up! D
Keep up the great work my friend
Appreciate that and will do! D
Great stuff, Dave, thank you!
Thanks so much for watching! D
Thanks Dave 😊😊
Happy to help! D
Thanks as always!
So glad you enjoyed this one D
Appreciate you sir!
Thanks Jason and thanks for watching! D
Do you believe that interest rate cuts are already priced in market 😮if so we could be in for steep folllow through
I would think that a 25 bps cut is now priced in for September, with further rate cuts to follow. Any big shift in inflation data this week could quickly change that picture! D
4:34 that's interesting, on TC2000, my RSI14 for 7/10 is 77.20 on the daily chart and 84.23 on 8/26 I show increasing RSI where you show a decreasing RSI line?? I wonder if TC2000 calculates RSI14 differently?? On 9/6/24, my RSI14 is 36.98, your is 40.94 ??? Any ideas?? Thanks BINYHOD, I missed that, good data point
++ UPDATE - Mystery solved, you are using the Wilders RSI, I was using straight RSI
Yep I'm using Wilder's calculations for RSI. One other note: since RSI uses an exponential calculation, the starting date for the calculation can also provide different values on different platforms D
That Vix spike is so strange. It wasn't long enough in duration to do anything noticeable? Unless it was a flare by smart money as a signal to get out now?
Probably a short squeeze as it's a popular "can't lose" trade to short the vix in a bull market.
VIX is behaving strangely, no one really knows why, good times! D
@@DKellerCMT Ha! Good times? I'd rather get poked in the eye with a needle. Oh wait already had that done, wet AMD. That wasn't a good time either 😯 everyone's talking about the high probability of a severe recession within six months now that the yield curve has un-inverted. I think it's time to breakout the Magic Eight Ball and see what she says. 😅
Today, (9/10/24) second Hindenburg signal in two days
I look for a reset of the indicator before another signal. But you definitely have me thinking as to what this implies given multiple days of back-to-back signals! D
Uncertainty is the only thing certain about the stock market moves and the vix does not seem to add much because it takes 2-3 wks to be certain of a market top... or a market dip for my benchmark beyond 2 stdDevs. The upcoming Fed drop on sep28 and then the nov05 election should determine market sentiment and market top for 2024. Portfolio is down to 10% ytd return with this dip and at 8.7% cash rotation and ready to take more profits when s&p goes up 5.3% to 5700... or not if it does not. Money supply M2 is still not back on track, but gdp growth is still 3% or so. Market shift to cash since jul16 seems to have reversed sep05-06 implying market cash preparing to buy this dip before the end year rally. My portfolio just follows the market...
I have no problem with having a portfolio that just follows the market. I do the same! D
@@DKellerCMT Three years ago, I retired and took over my portfolio because it was not even following the market despite paying 2%/yr. I am still learning... Am rereading Winning the Loser's Game where Charlie Ellis says most individual investors (5%) don't even follow the market. My limited experience has been that a diversified portfolio necessarily follows the market benchmark that represents that diversification. Right now, I have 92% equities including 20% etfs and have a cash rotation now at 8.7% from dividends, bonds, profit taking, and reinvestment. I don't know why all investors don't just do this...
What are the chances for you starting a new show called "The misbehaved candle" on this channel Dave 😁?
Not sure about that title... but I would say chances are very high that a daily market recap will appear here soon..... D
👍
Thanks for watching! D
I’m only afraid now that this video marks a local bottom in equities 😮
Always a possibility :) D
Dave, please stop using the word "rotate" to describe the movement of a stock price going lower!!! Stock prices do *NOT* "rotate lower"!!! The word "rotate" is a reserved word in the financial world to describe money moving from one asset class to another.
Yeah Dave. Stop it!!
Everybody is conforming to Tom Lee's will...
I love the word rotate. Would not agree that it's a "reserved word" and perhaps it's yet another reason why English is such a frustrating language to learn! :) D
this not working anymore it is the past , now is to much money printed in the market in wrong hands to manipulate every market with ETF , when the market wil down , the to much money buy again , also when stock have no value it is pump for the retirement money , now wy in the great casino market the goverment have only debt , en the money is in the hands off privat and big banks
IT is like the weatherman that keeps saying "There are a few rain cloud coming. It may rain. If it doesn't rain, then we get sunshine...but may or may not rain later in the evening... depending how strong the wind blows.. or not." and the audience worship his wisdom.
Actually, almost 60% of US households own stocks, which is the highest number in history! D