Kinnans tournament winrate is bad but he is good! And I can prove it
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- Опубликовано: 20 авг 2024
- So if you look at all the kinnan tournaments preformance you find a 21% winrate. That is kinda bad, or it is not great, other commanders have better. But I have found that kinnan is still quite great! In this video I will bring proof of the fact.
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The more a commander takes up a meta the worse the winrate ceiling gets. If 100% of players play Kinnan, the winrate is maxed at 25%.
I would love to see a tier list using this method! Super interesting stuff man, awesome video as always
That is the plan! Working on it currently.
Came here to make the exact same comment.
This was a really cool deep dive :)
I had always felt like Kinnan was a ceiling/floor deck and this helps to solidify that ")
Thank you. Yeah my data always said kinnan had bad winrate. But I personally always felt he should be really good still.
Could you do a video on Urzas saga? I am curious on how good that OP land (in legacy and modern) is in CEdh
That is a good suggestion!
lol "Ass a lot" @ 4:37
This is a great follow up video to that comment chain over on Lemora’s Cards video. Top 16s mean nothing. Its about being a good player. My take on Kinnan is maybe newbies pick up Kinnan cus they see fast big mana and big creatures so they wanna do that and feel like its cedh while not giving into a thoracleconsult win.
Well a lot of kinnan decks with low winrate do have a lot of big stopy cute creatures in it.
Kinnan being a solid choice for more casual tables has something to do with it as well. I see Kinnan as a stepping stone of sorts, same with Winota. They're not quite invested in the format yet
@@khub5660 Totally agree! I have a friend who tried to pick up turbo Ob Nixilis as his first cedh deck and its very good but there were times where he would get stuck in his combo lines where he has a good win on board but just couldn’t see it. We play super friendly cedh and im a rogsi player so im always helping if he needs it but he gave it a break and put Winota together and after that he was winning so much more just jamming her out flipping boys off the top, she became a menace. Love the way Kinnan and Winota are both from ikoria too they’re both really similar but kinnan is just better lol.
@TheLimedew since the meta is shifting back to turbo, Kinnan will definitely put up better results. The same goes with Najeela since people won't be clogging up the board as much anymore
This is the type of analytics that we need! Keep it up Mons this was great. TYVM for all your content
Thank you for that!
Lol this was exactly my comment from another video love it hahaha... cries in poor person kinnan tears.. excellent demonstration using data to back up a concept that is pretty abstract! Cheers!
Two potentially interesting things that could come from comparing good playes to all players could be comparing the average decklist to the average "good player" decklist and also potentially using a combination of the ratio of good players to all players and difference between the two winrates to give a metric for how hard a deck is to play.
Wait that is an intreasting point. I think I will look into this.
Using exclusion criteria that weeds out poorly performing players will mean that the selected group has a better winrate. The increase will be proportional to how many people you're eliminating from the group.
So since you excluded a lot of people from other commanders and very few from Rog/Si, you're practically guaranteed to have better winrates in the other commanders than Rog/Si.
Another way of looking at it: Almost all of the Rog/Si players passed the "good player" check... which included a threshold of winrate. So Rog/Si is a very consistently well-performing deck across players.
But blue farm has 567 entrys not far from rogsai and much better winrate. The difference is quite big there. both high sample size and different winrate.
really useful analysis, love the approach and how clear you make it.
We might need a new Top 10 video but based on this method :)
Also, where does Korvold stand? :)
YES! We really do need a new top 10 best commander now. BUT! I am glad you asked about korvold. From ALL entrys we have 312 tournament entrys. That is from EVERYONE. With a winrate of 20,32. Now it is possible the same case for kinnan apply for korvold. BUT! The sample size is quite low. If I do the same thing with korvold as with kinnan we won't really have a trustworty result.
It just needs more games. And this will be true for a lot of other commanders. But maybe we could scrap some sort of list togheter.
@@cedhtv very interesting you say that applying the filter we'd have results that are not statistically relevant anymore. I was expecting the same you've shown with Rog-si as it's not a beginner friendly deck and shares the turbo nature though without blue, so even less of a comfort zone. Also looking at recent results, Pros like Ian and the Mad King have both Top 4ed and fell short to even Top 16, so was curious to see what thoughts you might have had.
The data backs up your argument!! As a new player I concur! I have played for a month plus (I do play a lot of games each day, still a noob of course but lots of games) and I play Kinnan and blue farm. I play Kinnan way better even though blue farm is the top format deck.
From my experience in tournys, this is very true. Im not a skilled kinnan pilot but its a very fun deck to slam big dumb ideas and swing.
Sisay vs kinnan is a very good example of skill. Sisay can spend 5 to get a surgical tool and kinnan can spend 7 to hope for a lucky top deck. Skill aside the way the decks are played, draw a direct line between the two.
Excellent comparison.
i remember watching sf3:3s tier list, i remeber being 2 kinds, the win% and a more move/tactics focused one.
the win% one was always discussed metawise.
So, if a character had more representation it would ussually get more wins, so win% fluctuates with popularity too.
I would like to see table representation... maybe finals, semis, it might give a rough "quality" metric too.
Fun Analysis, thank you
Could you do a video with a similar analysis for Kenrith, the returned king please?
I plan to do this for all commanders. That have a lot of games. I don't know if kenrith has a lot of games to do this but we will see.
Amazing analysis.
Thank you!
Thank you for the video!
This made me happy!
Me to honestly.
can you check the winrate among good derevi and rog/thras players? thanks :D
Ayy samurai and Vincent mentioned 🎉
OFC!
I’m curious what your full cEDH tier list looks like when you use this factor for all of the decks you listed in the original tier list?
Me too. I plan on doing an tierlist from this system. But the sample size isen't that big.
I think Yuriko suffers from a similar issue. I think mainly new or players only player her, so her win rate is worse because of it. I would guess if good players actually played her, she would prob have a 23-25% win rate. Not the best but definitely better than what people believe.
I think this also displays how much better Blue Farm is than every other deck.
Blue Farm is the "known best deck" and new players always default to decks they know or the best winrate deck in the format to learn.
Yuriko dose. I did showcas Yuriko in the video. She had a much better winrate from the only good players group.
does a database exist on how exactly each game was won? combat damage? mill? Thassa's Oracle?
no. I would have to watch all of these games and I don't. We have done that to some of our gameplay videos. But those are still to few.
Pura verdade!
sorry. Don't understand.
"Pure truth" in portuguese@@cedhtv
thanks for the vid
Kinnan
Kinnan Hair don't care?
Yeah it’s simple been saying it for a while now. A lot of bad/ newer players went to Kinnan and just did awful. If you’re a good pilot the deck is amazing. Hopefully they move to other decks lol
Well I will start trying to see into more methods like this to get better data like this one in the future. So don't worry if a lot of begginner play kinnan.
❤❤❤
Not as good as Nadu...
Better then Nadu
Nadu is probably better yes.
I would like to see if people adapt their gameplan against nadu and at the end is not as good as it seems.