Dr. Gary Shilling On The Odds Of A Recession, Hidden Flaws In The Economy, And The Coming Debt Bomb

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  • Опубликовано: 12 ноя 2024

Комментарии • 40

  • @TheJuliaLaRocheShow
    @TheJuliaLaRocheShow  10 дней назад +3

    ✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.6% yield: public.com/julia ✨
    Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.6% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 9/18/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at public.com/disclosures/bond-account.

  • @davidcpugh8743
    @davidcpugh8743 10 дней назад +5

    Shilling is THE economist of the generation. Speaking as an unreconstructed Austrian School influenced wonk. Plus my mother always invested well.

  • @TexasRiverRat31254
    @TexasRiverRat31254 10 дней назад +3

    Thank you Julia! I always enjoy the "old guys" that have been doing this for a few economic cycles.

  • @littlejohnjp
    @littlejohnjp 10 дней назад +3

    Automatic thumbs up before the video, then to sit back and enjoy your interview on a Saturday morning with leisure coffee. Perfect way to start the weekend. Thanks, Julia. Have a great weekend.

    • @TheJuliaLaRocheShow
      @TheJuliaLaRocheShow  10 дней назад +2

      Appreciate you! Thank you so much. Have a wonderful weekend. 😊😊😊

  • @awells10000
    @awells10000 10 дней назад

    One of the timeless great experts in fixed income. Thanks for having him on!

  • @reincarnated96
    @reincarnated96 10 дней назад +2

    For Julia to have a mental background and understanding of some arcane history of Dr. Shilling's employment history gives me confidence in her mental acumen.

  • @masihnabizadeh071
    @masihnabizadeh071 10 дней назад +2

    that's a good point "they cut rates before 2% target" it means a lot

    • @deseosuho
      @deseosuho 10 дней назад

      Yeah the "dual mandate" of price stability and full employment is a very distant second to the Federal Reserve's true purpose of backstopping the banks. Any 50 bps cut is proof positive of grave concern about the health of the finacial system among the fed presidents, regardless of any public statements they may make

  • @michaelstock9351
    @michaelstock9351 7 дней назад

    Another great interview

  • @dailydoseofnews4828
    @dailydoseofnews4828 10 дней назад +2

    Thanks Julia

  • @tenplus1025
    @tenplus1025 10 дней назад +1

    Hell yeah! Love this dude!

  • @Gorka73
    @Gorka73 10 дней назад +6

    i followed garry shilling since 2012. he was in constant recession is coming deleveraging is coming camp. he is one hit wonder w his bond purchase in the 80s and thats it.

  • @detectiveofmoneypolitics
    @detectiveofmoneypolitics 10 дней назад +1

    Detective of Money Politics is following this very informative content and cheers from VK3GFS and 73s from Frank from Melbourne Australia 😊

  • @davidcpugh8743
    @davidcpugh8743 10 дней назад +1

    Always interesting.

  • @twhelostl61
    @twhelostl61 10 дней назад

    Fixed income is a broad and deep topic. Public and Private Debt. Warren Buffet holds ST Treasury debt like cash while he waits for underpriced equities. GS for 30 min gives a quick take. Thanks to Julia, what a great host.

  • @neilpalmer7023
    @neilpalmer7023 10 дней назад

    Love your show. Look at Armstrong Economics & their SOCRATES model for a truly A.I model developed by Martin Armstrong.

    • @joelfaulk
      @joelfaulk 5 дней назад

      Really. Can you give me 1 prediction of a price of a stock or commodity that his computer is predicting in the future?

  • @markphillips2648
    @markphillips2648 10 дней назад

    India has relatively high PE levels, I also invest in India ETFs, I am curious if PE levels of 31 are a concern going forward or does Dr. Shilling go with low PE funds like EPI over INDA?

  • @davidcpugh8743
    @davidcpugh8743 10 дней назад +4

    Federal spending lollapalooza?

  • @JamesBlazen
    @JamesBlazen 10 дней назад +3

    Treasury perma bull never adjusts his views for reality.

  • @bigqueue
    @bigqueue 9 дней назад

    The lost to use economic models and computers has not ended, what they realize is that people are often irrational and not totally logical. The solution, cbdcs, that way you can control people. Now you don't have to rely on people acting logically and rationally, you can force them to by controlling their spending, and if they don't spend just take it from them.
    That's the way computers and algorithms will become better, by making humanity more controlled.

  • @randyosborne3971
    @randyosborne3971 10 дней назад +3

    Who died and left the goons of Washington D.C. to replace the Free Market?

  • @stldweller
    @stldweller 8 дней назад

    Im not certain how anyone has the right to call this a soft landing if you've seen all the major company layoffs, and bank failures in the past 2 years.

  • @baetis1539
    @baetis1539 10 дней назад +1

    Did he say that govt debt is 3% of gdp? BS! The interest on the debt exceeds gdp.

  • @markphillips2648
    @markphillips2648 10 дней назад

    Convexity home run enroute!

  • @Rinbtnotification
    @Rinbtnotification 10 дней назад

    🎉👌😃😃😃

  • @joelfaulk
    @joelfaulk 5 дней назад

    If he has been in the long bond in the last couple of years, he got his ass kicked.

  • @doobeedoo2
    @doobeedoo2 День назад

    The sucking up to the guest with excessive flattery is awkward to listen to. Watch Jack Farley's interview with David Rosenberg. It's no nonsense. We want to get to the guts of his call and we want you to push him on inconsistencies.

  • @George-jm4rn
    @George-jm4rn 9 дней назад

    Vintage Shilling here. Nothing new. Not worth your time if you're familiar with the good doctor.