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I don't think REIT prices will go back to the old days anytime soon. Most of those prices were during the 0% interest borrowing days. For REIT prices to get back to prior highs, the driver must be rental growth. However, the most resilient names are also the ones who have the majority of their portfolio in Singapore-based properties. Rent in Singapore is already at all time highs, and any future rental growth will likely be muted. It's really a long game of patience. If you're an income investor relying on dividends to fund you in retirement, you shouldn't have to worry. But if you're young and looking to grow your portfolio, then the risk-reward ratio of REITs is fairly low, and you'll likely come out ahead investing in an S&P500 index fund.
Ah another market chaser that doesnt recognise value. Keep chasing the snp then.. even if suntec is 10c you wouldnt buy.. but the same ppl will throw cheques at new launches.. because it will always go up right? Hmm
@@andrewufo which part of my comment suggests I don't recognise value? Index funds tend to go up over time because of the natural elimination process that kicks out underperformers. It doesn't always perform, but there is a 100 years of history behind it. That's a far longer performance history than the oldest S-REIT, which is Ascendas. Past performance is not indicative of future performance, but looking at the sustained high interest macroeconomic backdrop which works against REITs, you ought to have a more sophisticated strategy than just "buying value".
@@daniellin5581 its well known that snp is trading at very rich p/e valuations. So thats not value. But everyone is in it because over 100yrs its proven to work. So if you are happy to chase, sure because even if snp is 10000 you will buy or 20000 you will buy, because its "proven"
One thing you are missing is that the financial positions of these REITs are very different from back in 2020. Interest coverage ratios have weakened substantially to the point where MAS has to propose minimum ICR of 1.5x instead of 2.5x. Even the blue-chip REITs have been significant deterioration. All this is happening in the backdrop of normalised financial conditions. While borrowing costs have gone up, they are just going back to normal levels before the era of low interest rates. What happens when a real financial crisis hits? Just look at REITs in 2008 to have a preview of what happens if financial markets go into turmoil.
Sure if your benchmark is 2008 all the time.. then you cant invest in anything. Either you r invested or you are not. Cant have your cake and eat it. If you r a bear.. then you better hope f0r a collapse.. otherwise.. you will fomo and lose out
This is the first time that I totally agreed with your view points on REITs. Good Work! I am now parking my fund in SREITs for the higher Dividends. Hope that REITs will stay low for the time being.
just a thought on the foreign property investments, if you took a mortgage for it, now that the SGD is stronger, would it not just mean you now have a "discount" on your outstanding mortgage that is denominated in the weaker currency?
Disagree, i believe theres little change in overall consumer behaviour. Those who love JB will love going in more. Those who dont want will still consume in SG
Q4-24 looks atrocious for both Mapletree. About 9-13%both fall in DPUs while others are flat or stagging recoveries such as Keppel DC, OUE etc based on current announcements thus far. Too big lead to diversification out of Singapore may also be a problem.
@joshconsultancy Yeah you are right. It looks poor when compared to the smaller SG keppel dc and OUE which saw a bounce off their share price vs Mapletrees even though it is a better sponsor. One really wonder if adding diversification was the right thing to do especially MPACT which is still suffering from the North Asia merger. It was put it bluntly to save North Asia.
Singapore REITs is a game of patience, belief and knowing why you are investing in it. For me it’s about getting solid dividend payouts at an attractive price to build another stream of passive income. As of now, it’s definitely a bargain for some of the BLUE CHIP REITs, which I will continue to DCA. Thanks Josh for the views and suggestions, which is most helpful.
im loosing conviction on SG reits.....been buying for the last 3 years and even with dividends, Im still 12% in the red.....the money would have returned much better yield if deployed to the US equities.... hindsight is always 20/20 :(
Today Business Times...good times for Reits are coming 😁 "MAS eases monetary policy settings, lowers 2025 core inflation forecast to between 1% and 2%"
Then? What would you buy that is cheap and not expensive. There is a price for everything. Love reits now.. fell 50% from high and love it. Thank you bears
@@ericcsn agree it depends on how you look at it, but comparing with ipo is extreme. If you can invest in real estate with prices of 2015 using todays 2025 money ill say thats a good bargain. You cant say the same with any other inflated asset like pvt residential property
@ericcsn it is extreme to compare vs ipo. You dont compare apple and microsoft ipo prices do you? Do you also compare a condo today vs a condo 20yrs ago? Similarly suntc 20yrs ago isnt same as today in valuation, it should not be. Hence comparing vs ipo is really extreme
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I don't think REIT prices will go back to the old days anytime soon. Most of those prices were during the 0% interest borrowing days. For REIT prices to get back to prior highs, the driver must be rental growth. However, the most resilient names are also the ones who have the majority of their portfolio in Singapore-based properties. Rent in Singapore is already at all time highs, and any future rental growth will likely be muted. It's really a long game of patience. If you're an income investor relying on dividends to fund you in retirement, you shouldn't have to worry. But if you're young and looking to grow your portfolio, then the risk-reward ratio of REITs is fairly low, and you'll likely come out ahead investing in an S&P500 index fund.
pov noted
Ah another market chaser that doesnt recognise value. Keep chasing the snp then.. even if suntec is 10c you wouldnt buy.. but the same ppl will throw cheques at new launches.. because it will always go up right? Hmm
@@andrewufo which part of my comment suggests I don't recognise value? Index funds tend to go up over time because of the natural elimination process that kicks out underperformers. It doesn't always perform, but there is a 100 years of history behind it. That's a far longer performance history than the oldest S-REIT, which is Ascendas. Past performance is not indicative of future performance, but looking at the sustained high interest macroeconomic backdrop which works against REITs, you ought to have a more sophisticated strategy than just "buying value".
@@daniellin5581 its well known that snp is trading at very rich p/e valuations. So thats not value. But everyone is in it because over 100yrs its proven to work. So if you are happy to chase, sure because even if snp is 10000 you will buy or 20000 you will buy, because its "proven"
Same as bitcoin believers.. its proven
nice comparisons and easy to understand...thanks!
No probs happy to share =)
Why MIT over Keppel DC? Why not both?
I once held both.
Shared in a video, I exited keppel dc based on my view on how they handled guangdong Dc issues
Appreciate the sharing! How about S Reits ETF for the diversification? Are they riskier compared to these large names reits?
I prefer the large names. Sreit etf will have other reits which i think the diversification doesnt help much
Any view on Sofi stock?
Josh: Thanks for your videos. BTW: It's has "come" down, not has "came" down.
No probs and noted =)
Looks like REITs and banks are inversely correlated, good to have a bit of both for a balanced portfolio.
One thing you are missing is that the financial positions of these REITs are very different from back in 2020.
Interest coverage ratios have weakened substantially to the point where MAS has to propose minimum ICR of 1.5x instead of 2.5x. Even the blue-chip REITs have been significant deterioration.
All this is happening in the backdrop of normalised financial conditions. While borrowing costs have gone up, they are just going back to normal levels before the era of low interest rates.
What happens when a real financial crisis hits?
Just look at REITs in 2008 to have a preview of what happens if financial markets go into turmoil.
Fully aware of 2008. I was investing back then. 2008 credit crunch is the reason why reits space out loan repayment periods
Sure if your benchmark is 2008 all the time.. then you cant invest in anything. Either you r invested or you are not. Cant have your cake and eat it. If you r a bear.. then you better hope f0r a collapse.. otherwise.. you will fomo and lose out
agree with you on the reits in this video. Thanks
J tan v goooood pl have more of such thanks
This is the first time that I totally agreed with your view points on REITs. Good Work! I am now parking my fund in SREITs for the higher Dividends. Hope that REITs will stay low for the time being.
Glad it was helpful. Stay optimistic and Lets huat 2025 =)
V Good video.
Only one i agree with is MINT
just a thought on the foreign property investments, if you took a mortgage for it, now that the SGD is stronger, would it not just mean you now have a "discount" on your outstanding mortgage that is denominated in the weaker currency?
Yes but you paid capital as downpayment for the asset. That lost value.
Your translated rent income is SGD also drops
@@joshconsultancy Agree. There's currency risk either way, whether to pay off or take a long tenure mortgage
With the Johore-Singapore special economic zone, can share how it impacts singapore industrial reits.
Theres always competition. No worries about it =)
RTS next yr will impact retail REITs by a lot , not immediate but gradually
Disagree, i believe theres little change in overall consumer behaviour.
Those who love JB will love going in more. Those who dont want will still consume in SG
Q4-24 looks atrocious for both Mapletree. About 9-13%both fall in DPUs while others are flat or stagging recoveries such as Keppel DC, OUE etc based on current announcements thus far. Too big lead to diversification out of Singapore may also be a problem.
Dpu grew for MIT
Latest MPACT inched up abit Q/Q but yes Y/y for them is still downtrend unfortunately
@joshconsultancy Yeah you are right. It looks poor when compared to the smaller SG keppel dc and OUE which saw a bounce off their share price vs Mapletrees even though it is a better sponsor. One really wonder if adding diversification was the right thing to do especially MPACT which is still suffering from the North Asia merger. It was put it bluntly to save North Asia.
Singapore REITs is a game of patience, belief and knowing why you are investing in it. For me it’s about getting solid dividend payouts at an attractive price to build another stream of passive income. As of now, it’s definitely a bargain for some of the BLUE CHIP REITs, which I will continue to DCA. Thanks Josh for the views and suggestions, which is most helpful.
"game of patience, belief and knowing why you are investing in it" - well said =)
Well said. 6 mil reits for me bought in last 12 months. Happy to wait and collect div
how about Capitand Investment and Nikko Reits ETF?
I view Capitaland investment well. China prop needs to pick up for it to recover in sentiment
Only ParkwayLife REIT is still standing strong. 💪
Only this and I don’t like the other REITs or trusts too. Quite stagnant also
hi david huang!
im loosing conviction on SG reits.....been buying for the last 3 years and even with dividends, Im still 12% in the red.....the money would have returned much better yield if deployed to the US equities.... hindsight is always 20/20 :(
Last one sentence is perfect:) I have been investing in AIA wealth elite last three years 20% in red
What are the S-Reits you have been been buying last 3 years?
Bought Syfe Reits. I beleive the composits are
Keppel DC REIT
CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust
Mapletree Logistics Trust
Mapletree Industrial Trust
Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust
CapLand Ascendas REIT
Frasers Logistics & Industrial Trust
Suntec Real Estate Investment Trust
Frasers Centrepoint Trust
Keppel REIT
CapitaLand Ascott Trust
Capitaland India Trust
CapitaLand Retail China Trust
Lendlease Global Commercial REIT
ESR-LOGOS REIT
Parkway Life Real Estate Investment Trust
CDL Hospitality Trusts
AIMS APAC REIT
Far East Hospitality Trust
Starhill Global REIT
Be greedy when others are fearful
@@ezrapan7809
Bought SYFE Reit+:
Keppel DC REIT
CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust
Mapletree Logistics Trust
Mapletree Industrial Trust
Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust
CapLand Ascendas REIT
Frasers Logistics & Industrial Trust
Suntec Real Estate Investment Trust
Frasers Centrepoint Trust
Keppel REIT
CapitaLand Ascott Trust
Capitaland India Trust
CapitaLand Retail China Trust
Lendlease Global Commercial REIT
ESR-LOGOS REIT
Parkway Life Real Estate Investment Trust
CDL Hospitality Trusts
AIMS APAC REIT
Far East Hospitality Trust
Starhill Global REIT
Today Business Times...good times for Reits are coming 😁
"MAS eases monetary policy settings, lowers 2025 core inflation forecast to between 1% and 2%"
Few ppl will be interested in reits now. but after it goes up, ppl will start to ask again whether the boat has left 🤣
Absolutely 😅
me8u doing so badly for past 5 years. rip. 😮😮😮
Stay patient k
Just take it as a passive income stream while wait for interest rates to drop
Diversify...Diversify
Dont fall in love with reits
Then? What would you buy that is cheap and not expensive. There is a price for everything. Love reits now.. fell 50% from high and love it. Thank you bears
@ depending on how u look at it. Is its all time high an overshoot? Or should one compare its price with its IPO - in which case prices are expensive.
@@ericcsn agree it depends on how you look at it, but comparing with ipo is extreme. If you can invest in real estate with prices of 2015 using todays 2025 money ill say thats a good bargain. You cant say the same with any other inflated asset like pvt residential property
@ compare their ipo prices aggregated with their dividends over the years with current prices and the uncertainties ahead is not so extreme.
@ericcsn it is extreme to compare vs ipo. You dont compare apple and microsoft ipo prices do you? Do you also compare a condo today vs a condo 20yrs ago? Similarly suntc 20yrs ago isnt same as today in valuation, it should not be. Hence comparing vs ipo is really extreme