Hi Drach. Was wondering about the sounds of battle and how through different eras the sounds of battle would have changed to the ordinary sailor during a fight?
Question i’ve been struggling with over the last few months, really hit me hard as i closed the tabs my essay and class was in at 4:30 and then saw this was up and promptly started this up- why must i always think it is smart to listen to your videos instead of sleep?😂😂😂 great work tho thank u so much for your work here!
What if this actually happened and 77 years later someone ran a battle simulation on the alternate scenario of "what if TF34 was not there?" What if Taffy3 alone was attacked by Yamato and the entire center force. How would the battle have played out? I guarantee no human or computer would have predicted the actual outcome as it really happened.
I'm pretty damn sure that the odds of what actually happened happening are greater than million to one odds, I would say somewhere in the order of probably billion or trillion to one odds
As a bit of a side note, as with all alternate histories, " Captain E.E Evans USN retired from the Navy in 1952 after 21 years and returned to Oklahoma. He worked as a manager for a local oil company for 28 years and had three children. Ernest E Evans died in 1994 at 86, having led a full and happy life".
Another side note: Admiral Lee receives the congressional Medal of Honor and promotion to full admiral at the end of the war. USS Washington is preserved as a museum ship in puget sound and in the 1970s, the US Navy names one of the new Nimitz class aircraft carriers, the USS Willis A Lee
@@DASCO2136 Lee deserves having a major ship named after him. He wasn’t the most glorious admiral, but he was competent and effective. A pity we’re naming carriers after politicians, many of whom have done rather less for the nation.
This would have made Weebs claim that the only reason why the US Battle Line did so well because Musashi wasnt there (ignoring that the US would have sent Sodak and Mamie if Musashi did not sink).
@@robertyoung3992 He's referring to Drach's alternate history scenario here where The Sullivans does finish off Yamato, not the actual history of the ship.
Drach was referring to the actual war gamed ship movements which for example he did with Jutland. Unfortunately, such detail is apt to be lost on folks unfamiliar with naval history, jargon, and so forth. Still, I agree with you that the battle was presented with the minimumlevel of details Drach's fo,,owers and supporters expect.
I’ve always felt that while a great slugging match between the (arguably) best battleships of all time would be a neat thing to see, the story of Taffy 3 would have (and has had) a significantly larger impact on US Navy lore.
Though the Taffy 3 story has been massively distorted and exaggerated in the process to the point where the pop culture narrative is significantly different from what actually went down (largely due to poor historiography that ignored not only Japanese primary sources, but multiple American primary sources as well). I would also argue that a Yamato vs. Iowa match actually happening would lead to massively distorted perceptions of battleships re: their actual value, which is really saying something given how overrated the Iowas are already in terms of usefulness (Yamato isn't nearly as overrated as she's generally called out for her uselessness, though in this scenario I can imagine she could become overrated in the same way as well)
I agree Wesley. In had this action taken place, the first Kamikaze attack would most likely have been against the remaining TF34 capital ships, rather than a carrier. It is just possible that this scenario, which in effect would see a battleship fleet protecting the vulnerable Escort Carriers from what could only be seen as complete destruction, would have given a lot of impetus to the battleship stalwarts. With them alone having protected the Leyte landing from two sides this could see a shift back from the carrier-centric approach otherwise used all through the Pacific war. That would quite possibly have seen battleships retained in service in greater numbers post-war, despite the cost. Which other elements would have seen funding cuts is not too hard to imagine - the big carriers, and their aircraft. I doubt that the Forrestal class would have gone unbuilt; but that design may well have been delayed and smaller, maybe even emerging as improved Midways with angled decks? The big carrier and matching aircraft development progress would be more constrained for decades. I have no idea how that might have influenced world affairs? Imagine battleships turning up in place of carriers for some of the post-war political hot spots!
@@John.0z Technically the USN retained a large Battleship force postwar anyway, and didn't say goodbye to their last until 2011; though it's certainly the case that greater emphasis would have been given.
@@bkjeong4302 The advent of Night Fighters pretty much would have ended the battleship in any case. The One place where the battleship was still viable against the carrier was at night when the carrier couldn't attack with impunity... even that faded shortly after the war. So, yeah. Heartily agree.
Drach: "USS New Jersey is matching up against Yamato, She's gonna have one hell of a fight" Me: Might be an understatement Drach: "And in Nagato's case, her partner is USS Iowa" Me: Oh...
In the Guadalcanal II battle (14-15 Nov 1942), the Washington and South Dakota plus some destroyers battled the Kongo-class battleship Kirishima, some cruisers and destroyers. The American battleships got separated early in the battle. The American destroyers engaged with the Japanese fleet, and the American battleships largely held their fire for fear of hitting friendly ships. The Japanese concentrated fire on the South Dakota. The South Dakota suffered an unfortunate loss of electrical power and could not fire back effectively. The Kirishima was getting the best of South Dakota when Washington finally could identify Kirishima and then Washington buried Kirishima with radar-directed gunfire. The bottom line is the Kongo-class battleships Could damage and probably sink American battleships, and if the Americans' radar fire control is disabled, the odds were not extreme.
@@stevehofer3482 *At point blank range and with South Dakota completely disable due to electrical failure. The Kirishima got extremely lucky to be in such a position and even then I highly doubt her 14 inch shells could sink the South Dakota by themselves, it would’ve required several torpedoes to finish her off. I could be wrong but I don’t think any of her shells penetrated the main armor belt. She wrecked the upper works but the ship was in no danger of sinking. If South Dakota hadn’t suffered the electrical failure and had a proper (or still afloat) fleet screen that battle would’ve gone very differently.
@@robertelder164 I don't think I said that South Dakota was in danger of sinking, at least not from the hits that she suffered in the battle as it went, but if the Washington wasn't there to save the day, it's possible that the Japanese ships ganging up on the South Dakota would have been able to sink her eventually.
@@chronus4421 yep, I was one of the people commenting with the corrected number since he guessed rather than using it as an excuse to rewatch New Hope or at least pulling from wookieepedia
Battleships: Obvious result Cruisers: Obvious result, given that the IJN got two more cruisers Destroyers: Obvious result Second round: Obvious result End result: Decisive US Victory. Kantai Kessen, everyone!
And somehow the USS Johnston STILL managed to get there first. STILL managed to be the ship that did the most damage, took the most damage and sank heroically only due to the weight of Cdr E. Evans' MASSIVE steel balls.
44:17 I see that "Battleship X" was so desperate to get into a serious surface engagement, that she's dressed up as her sister to try to sneak in as "Alabama" :D
Me: Oh boy, I wonder what my home state's battleship pulled off.. Drach: USS Massachusetts still wouldn't have been there Me: ReeeeeeeeeeeeeEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
@@jacobnugent8159 Yes. The only one of the continental forty-eight that never had a constructed battleship named after it is Montana; a bit ironic considering the Montana-class is rather famous for a class of ships that was never even laid down. Although a fun fact is that the second of said class was planned to be named Ohio.
The Washington is the MVP of this scenario, more or less single handedly having rendered the entire Kongo Class extinct, and killing the largest battleship ever constructed.
I think not, probably the Kongos could run because they had a speed of 30 knots, Washington and Massachusetts had 27 knots. But probably they was going to sink by planes.
@@D.AKULA_TK208 By the time WWII had started, all vessels of the Kongo class had been highly reconstructed over the interwar period. By the attack on Pearl Harbor, they had all undergone massive upgrades to their overall armor, bringing a lot of the existing armor up to the original maximum of 8 inches. However, despite reworking much of their propulsion systems, they gained over 4,000 extra tons in weight, and subsequently were reduced in speed by 2-3 knots, putting them well within the speed ranges of both Alabama and Washington.
@@justat1149 No. The Kongos were rebuilt in the late 1930s, received all new boilers that greatly increased power and made them capable of 30 kts at flank bell.
@Nihil Patel guns still trained for action. I was wrong, she's TWO miles deeper than Titanic the deepest wreck ever found. The old girl is still pushing that little bit farther.
As one of the people who asked about this scenario when the video of the 7th Fleet intervening in the Battle off Samar was released, I very much appreciate Drachinifel taking the time and effort to put this one together. Thank you, sir!
Unless 7th Fleet hit the Southern Force harder and faster and was convinced of no lingering threat, they likely would not have been able to steam up in time unless they set out immediately after destroying Southern Force. The best chance at that, would be if someone on Japan's side radioed their defeat with it being picked up by American Intelligence and not any of the Japanese ships or Imperial Naval Command. Of course, if Drach is willing to disagree and find a possibility, I too would enjoy such a video.
@@FLJBeliever1776 To clarify, Drachinifel made a video before this one about what would have happened if the 7th Fleet had intervened ("The Battle of Samar (Alternate History) - Bring on the Battleships!" dated March 6, 2019), and I then mentioned that, as you say, this scenario seemed far more probable than that one. So I'm very glad Drachinifel covered this scenario. :)
I want to see the real Kantai Kessen:Taffy three No, the real Kantai Kessen:Center force vs. The old battle ships. The REAL Kantai Kessen: One sided slaughter by the fast battleships. Perfect
I'm sure Ryan Szimanski will be happy that USS New Jersey was chosen to lead the fight with Yamato. More so with the fact that USS New Jersey effectively crippled Yamato. Might finally net her more battle honours than USS Enterprise. ;p P.S. Hi Ryan/Drach if you read this. :)
one of the big ones he wants is that 20th battlestar, so she ties Enterprise, this probably lowers her awards as she sits out the rest of the war instead of earning them like candy for shelling shores
After all these years, this is the first time that I have seen someone propose a factual, realistic scenario as to how such a battle might have happened - along with a realistic historical line of battle for both sides. Aside from further debate as to how the battle itself would have played out - such as Kurita realizing that he WAS up against a major part of the US fleet, loosing his nerve, and saying "oh hell no", and retreating as he did historically - this is far and away the best analysis of this "what if" scenario I've ever seen. Well done sir, my respects.
Welcome to Drachinifel's channel. This outstanding video is normal here. You want to see Drach at his best watch the real battle of samar. Drach dis not raise the bar for these things. He put a 15 inch shell in it and made a new one.
I will say this about Kurita. He was having a very bad day after a very bad day. He lost 3 cruisers to Submarines (2 sunk- including his and 1 badly damaged). Then Musashi gets sunk (and another cruiser damaged?). Then he (thinks) he's facing one of Halsey's battle groups (with at least one more likely in the area). The Taffy planes attacking were everything and the kitchen sink from Taffy 3, 2 and part of 1. He couldn't see Taffy 2 and 1 - 3x28 aircraft per escort carrier= 84 aircraft for each visible carrier (about the compliment of a fleet carrier for each visible target). He also wasn't informed by the army of the presence of the escort carriers. Is it any wonder he had a case of rampaging paranoia? He sees 6 "fleet" carriers on the horizon. He gets attacked by roughly 450 aircraft from 18 escorts (2/3 invisible). He has to think Halsey is near with the other 9 carriers in TF 38. Had he stayed and killed off Taffy 3, then moved on to Leyte, he would have remained dogged by Taffy 2,1. Three or four of the old battleships from the Surgaio Straight would be steaming North (historically, they had been dispatched). Halsey would have arrived in time to catch what remained of his line to annihilate him as he passed back through the strainght after a bombardment mission of even short duration. His best hope - kill 6 escort carriers, Get some shells into the 57 ships and maybe force some liberty ships to beach. If lucky, blow up an ammunition ship and damage ships around it..... this result at the cost of his entire fleet. Between more than 300 aircraft harrying him the entire way, old battleships pounding his bombardment force, Nashville firing for all she was worth (and a Brooklyn can throw alot of shells really fast). He would then have to deal with 14 destroyers hitting with guns (only)... and then limp back late enough for TF38 to finish him. More than 160,000 troops were landed days ago, having proceeded inland with their first load of supplies already delivered. What was in harbor was the second round of supplies and they had had 12 hours warning to begin unloading, beaching all the LSTs (which should already be empty by the next morning). That only really left 20 or so Liberty ships as targets worth shelling (any troops long since evacuated). Loss of nearly 100% of Center Force vs 6 light carriers and forcing beaching 20 liberty ships. Meh... I don't like those returns. No real impact on the landing (far too little too late).
@@paladamashkin8981 "Drach dis not raise the bar for these things. He put a 15 inch shell in it and made a new one." In this case wouldn't it be a 16 inch shell?
I liked that detail. "There's curls of smoke coming out of various apertures, but no-one really knows what happened within the turret except that it stopped firing". Rest in Peace, gentlemen.
Speaking of which. Halsey would have been kept in the loop (so to speak) as to what’s happening. Once he hears Task Force 34 engaging centre force. Combined with the Northern Force barely putting up a fight. He may order one or two of the carrier groups to double back and launch an air strike at Kurita in support.
I’m pretty sure that the only reason such esoteric topics such as this are voted for is because you’re the only publicly accessible individual with the requisite knowledge and mental acuity to be able to work out all the ‘what-ifs’. And good on ya’ we love you for it! Keep up the good work sir!
When Drach said he wouldn’t be able to completely war game the alternate history scenario out, I thought, aww shucks, that’s too bad... Well..., what you gave us was so fantastically detailed and extensive... thanks so much, really one of the best “...what if” explanations I’ve ever heard or read, Thanks Drach!
It is not even the worst outcome for the Japanese. The worst would be getting intercepted by TF34 on the way back out of historical battle of Samar - down to 4 cruisers, most of the torpedoes spent. None would have escaped.
@@timwf11b It would be interesting to know historical position of TF34 at the time Halsey received first call for help from 7th fleet. Would he make it back to San Bernardino straight on time? Even if ships wouldn't have made it, planes surely would.
The absolute worst case scenario for the IJN would have been what *almost* happened - Admiral McCain and his breakaway TG38.1 from Halsey’s snipe hunt showing up before the Center Force got back to the strait. If they had shown up with two Essex-class fleet carriers, two Independence-class light carriers, 3 heavy cruisers, one light cruiser, and 15 destroyers, all prepared and armed to engage a significant surface force, Kurita would have been in a world of trouble.
"...Making it the single most successful U.S. battleship in history." The sad part about this statement is that the State of Washington would still refuse to fund USS Washington as a Museum ship and she'll be sent to the scrappers.
@@historytank5673 I don't think so. Socialists are stubborn. When they make up their mind that they're not going to do the right thing, nothing will stop them.
Happy to hear that my ship the USS New Jersey battled Yamato into the sea and survived to talk about it! I live 5 miles up the river from her and she’s always been my favorite battleship for as long as I can remember!
Probably not at all. At the time of Leyte Gulf the Royal Navy's East Indies Fleet consisted of one squadron each of battleships and cruisers, three destroyer flotillas, four submarine flotillas, and a number of smaller craft. The single battleship squadron, consisting of the four survivors of the World War One-vintage Revenge-class, was considered so vulnerable they were based in modern-day Kenya, while the rest of the Fleet had its base in Sri Lanka. The East Indies Fleet (redesignated the British Pacific Fleet in November 1944) would eventually grow to over 200 vessels by the end of the war, but in October 1944 it was no match for (and nowhere near) the Japanese surface fleet. I'm sure the British would've been more than happy to let the USN have this one.
I'd imagine they'd feel sad they missed it but then a sense of pride seeing their rebellious child go from the uncertainty left by Pearl Harbor to such a decisive victory against what was one of the most powerful navies the world had seen. Edit: Then I'm sure one RN officer would say something to the effect: "Oh dear, the Americans will never let us hear the end of it".
I suppose it is worth mentioning that the RN was sort of present at Leyte Gulf in spirit. The heavy cruiser HMAS Shropshire and destroyer HMAS Arunta of the Royal Australian Navy were present on the right flank of Task Force 79 at the Battle of Surigao Strait.
Captain im so jealous!! Had orders to Missouri out of A School, but her deployment ahead of Desert Storm changed things, and wnded up on an AFS... Double dissappointed since Id already been aboard her in Bremerton as a kid just before she was reactivated.
Arise, arise, Sailors of Brooklyn Guns shall be shaken, Hulls shall be splintered, a sword-day, a red day, ere the sun rises! Sail now, Sail now, SAIL! Sail for ruin and the world's ending! Death! Death! Death! Forth TF34!
@@Thirdbase9 To be fair would the big Johnson power merely, as the new group arrived do a close support firing mission down the battle line underneath the enemy guns and take out each bridge in succession with its guns?
While it wouldn’t have been considered as amazing as the actual battle, this would have still had claims to fame as perhaps the biggest naval gun battle in history, the biggest battleship engagement since Jutland, and the final blaze of glory for battleships vs battleships.
British Admirals(and quite possibly the Entire Royal Navy)would be Embarrassed for a) Missing out on Quite Literally the Last Battleship v Battleship Gun Duel b) Seeing the USN Dunk the IJN into the Pits of Poseidon, when Britian had that chance with the German High Seas Fleet and Fucked it up in Jutland c) Being a Massive news that Britian no longer Ruled the Waves, Nelson would perhaps roll in his grave & d) Cement US Battleships as the Worlds "Best" Battleships ever built, something Britian has been vying to let it's battleships claim that title
Samar really showed the balls on USS Johnston, as it were. It's literally one of the only vehicles that could unironically have a set of fake nuts hanging off the back.
Drach, you forgot to take into consideration whether or not Kurita mistakes his opponents for DDs and DEs so orders his forces to load HE instead of AP.
I was driving some visitors to Philadelphia around and one asked what that DD was over there, not knowing of any Naval visits I asked where? He pointed at the BB NJ! across the river... one never knows.
@YAKUMO RAN Is there a historical example of late war, radar guided VT shell fire frim multiple BBs being overwhelmed by huge numbers of Japanese planes?
@@LukoHevia Agreed, Spruance or Fletcher would have been better as their prudence would have inherently worked against the Japanese, probably leading to a far worse defeat for their forces with the exception of Ozawa's northern force not taking as much of a beating but almost certainly doom for Kurita's center force.
@@MrDirigible Indeed. Spruance wouldn't have taken such a reckless gamble, knowing that the war was already pretty much decided. Some might call it "over-cautious". I call it "being smart"
and given the Japanese maintaining radio silence thru the Battle of Surigao Strait, there is fair odds that the carriers can all launch at northern force later that or very early the next day(not sure on the timing) and net the quadfecta, sinking or completely decimating all 4 fleets
There has been a lot of talk about Iowa vs Yamato but this is much more realistic in terms of how it would likely play out, with, while yes, Yamato, herself, being very powerful many of her escorting battleships at the time were relatively old and/or not up to par with their American counterparts which would mean that, even if Yamato could hold off Iowa, once New Jersey and the other battleships got through with the older Japanese battleships it would only be a matter of time before Yamato found herself simply outnumbered and outgunned, hosed down by 14 and 16 in shells coming from multiple directions. Although considerable damage would be inflicted on the American fleet, possibly even losing a battleship some cruisers and destroyers, the Japanese Center Force would be destroyed in the process.
So, I believe that your scenario has an obvious and blatant error. Here is how it goes.... Captain Evans of the USS Johnston anticipates a Japanese attack and charges out of Taffy 3's formation to assist TF34. Upon seeing the arrival of the Johnston, Yamato leaps 100 feet out of the water, spins onto its back, falls into the water and sinks itself. The rest of the Center Force runs away.
@rpr6.5 creedmoor not after shoving its respectable sized Peener up Kumano effectively mind breaking her and leaving Suzuya in a near Peener-drunk state
Weirdly I think less people died at Samar because a somewhat small force of ships drove off a larger Japanese force. Had TF34 been there then it would have been a bar brawl and thousands on both sides would have died.
At the time though, it would've been impossible for anyone to predict the outcome of that, so they would've tried to block Kurita to protect the Taffy groups and the Leyte landing force. For all the admirals knew, the IJN force could've decimated them.
The engagement _with_ TF34 might have been so decisive that it would have ended the war almost one year early. Without its surface fleet, the Japanese Home Islands would have been open to devastating attacks.
No the Japanese would have gotten annihilated They were stationed in Malaysia 4 year without access to proper maintenance Their fire-control systems needed major maintenance.
to be fair, this scenario is assuming kurita doesnt just immediately bolt out of there upon seeing the entire TF34 fleet guarding the strait. if taffy 3 was able to spook him, then imagine what the entire TF34 fleet would do.
Interesting side note is an entry in Wikipedia regarding chaff and something to consider for a future scenario: “In the Pacific Theatre, Navy Lieutenant Commander Sudo Hajime invented a Japanese version called Giman-shi, or "deceiving paper." It was first used with some success in mid 1943, during night battles over the Solomon Islands. Competing demands for the scarce aluminum necessary for its manufacture limited its use. On February 21, 1945, during the Battle of Iwo Jima, Giman-shi was successfully used prior to a Kamikaze attack on the USS Saratoga. “
Post war Halsey was heard to frequently wish he'd been in charge during the Battle of Philippine Sea and that Raymond Spruance had been in charge of the Leyte Gulf campaign. Spruance would not have charged north with the bulk of his fleet and if the circumstances presented itself would have probably taken all six fast battleships into San Bernadino straits under his direct command. He was a surface officer who had taken Iowa and New Jersey hunting surface targets at the end of the Truk raids.
The Japanese had been stuck in Malaysia for a year, their fire-control systems needed heavy maintenance That's why they're going to be against taffy 3 was so bad If the American battleships had shown up it would have been a turkey shoot
Thank you so much Drach. So high quality, and so informative but with a splash of humor too it. You really are amazing. Thank you for everything you do. Happy to hear Sullivans gets to finish off Yamato as she is located about an hour away from me in Buffalo New York!
This is like, the holy grail of AH for me 😄, in big part because of how close it was to actually happing and also because of how big the resulting battle would have been. Thanks you for the vid sir. 😃
Also this in fact is the timeline in which NASA realises the extent of the damage to Columbia's wing on STS-107 and send Atlantis to rescue the crew in orbit. There is absolutely no connection between the two, but I am invoking the butterfly effect damn it!
@@TBone-bz9mp except that after exhaustive post studies that couldn't happen. The Columbia crew would have suffocated a week before they got there. Unless NASA straight up ignored all safety checks and just said fuck it let's risk two orbiters and crew. There was no way possible for Atlantis to be ready for space in time.
I have to argue, based on Friedman and Campbell, that the USN's optical fire control systems are superior to the IJN's. The USN BB's had Mk.38 fire control directors w/26.5' stereo RFs, feeding the Mk.8 rangekeeper supported by the Mk.41/43 stable vertical along with the 44' stereo RFs, producing fire control solutions that with remote power control means that the guns are on continuous aim. While Yamato had the newest Type 98 system with very good long base RFs, her system was less automated and used "follow the pointer" turret control systems. The three older ships are using fire control systems basically equivalent to the previous generation USN system, the Type 92 and Type 94 directors, computers and inclinometers. Neither Japanese system had a reliable stable vertical, meaning the USN's BBs and newer CA/CLs could produce firing solutions while turning and remaining on target, a capability absent in the IJN's BBs or CAs. The USN's FCS was also more redundant, flexible and capable, since the FCS can assign main turrets to Mk.37s and there are secondary control stations in the conning tower and each turret. Also, with no air cover, both sides could try to use aerial spotting beyond the horizon. Given the availability of US fighters off the CVEs, the US BB's could launch OS2U-3's and stand off even without radar, beyond the visual horizon (22,000-26,000 yds) at near maximum range where the "superheavy" 2,700lbs shells were even more effective against decks, while the IJN BB's would be firing at whatever gunsmoke or flashes they can see, at least until the USN DDs lay a smoke screen which fully blinds the Japanese but not the aerial spotted US gunfire. With the Mk.13 and Mk.8 Mod.3 fire control radar, the US BBs could do the same thing as the radar horizon is farther than the optical horizon, again allowing them to fire OTH while the IJN remains blind.
I visited the Island of Samar before since i live in The Philippines and I never knew before I became a History Buff that there was a battle here before. I was only taught about Leyte Gulf and not the other subsequent separate battles located there.
There's too much history to learn in high school. I got my bachelor's in history even, but I've learned more about history by reading books over my 52 years.
Thank you for this video. It's fantastic, the best way to present history I have ever seen. By using the computer graphics and game graphics to such an effective degree introduces a new way of teaching the events of the past. So as the one lonely voice out here I say please keep it up please keep doing this this is fantastic and thank you very very much.
@@CaptainHat Yes. Spot on. With this kind of effort, you might get a hit out of this. Drach is excellent, by which I mean I agree with him mostly. His pronunciation of names is hideous, but his engineering knowledge is not to be dismissed at all, thus his conclusions make sense. His treatment of this is probably accurate, which leads us to this: why would God let all those battleships be gored when He could just let the taffys and the Johnston' destroyer division suffer with far less casualties and damage and still have the victory? But only He could know that beforehand, no?
As a side note, Halsey later recalled that he was more angry about that than Typhoon Cobra, because it embarrassed him during the middle of the battle in front of all his subordinates. They had been receiving a constant stream of frantic messages from Taffy 3 for help, so his comms team felt it was pertinent to include the message padding, which made him lose it and throw his hat on the floor while cursing.
Halsey was a damn idiot and forgot why the US Navy was there in the Philippines to begin with: Landing troops for the invasion, taking back the Philippines. He left the landing force vulnerable like a goddamn idiot.
Really enjoy the channel, thanks for all you do! One of my favorite PC games was called Taskforce 1942 simulating naval battles of WW 2. It was great fun to set up different scenarios involving Yamato vs any opposing force I could dream up to the limit of what the game could provide. It's a little shocking to me that TF 1942 came out in 1992..... good heavens.... 30 years ago already. I remember one mission in particular where I set up a US battleship and as many destroyers as the game could support vs Yamato - when the simulation completed the game automatically filed the battle report under the heading - " American target practice". Which was quite appropriate - the animation of the battle pretty much looked like the Yamato was being rained on.
Another very interesting alternative scenario would be: instead of retreating, Kurita would have pressed on the charge to the south to continue hunting the fleeing Ameircan carriers to sink as many carriers as possible, ignoring any casualties and losses his forces would suffer in the process. Eventually Kurita would be met by Oldendorf's older battleship force which was guarding the invasion forces at the South. Oldendorf's battleship group consisted of the 2 Colorado-class, 2 Tennessee-class, 1 Pennsylvania and 1 New Mexico-class battleships, the same battleships that had destroyed the Yamashiro (Fuso-class) battleship the previous night in the Surigao strait. Although these older battleships didn't have as big guns like the Yamato, but they had one major advantage: they were upgraded with the new Mk8 Radar (the same radar which the Iowa-class had), which was the best radar at that time. It was the first radar in the world that enabled accurate blind fire at long range even without direct visual contact. This new radar helped the American battleships to pinpoint Yamashiro in the dark night and hit accurately with the first shot at 20km range. With this new Mk8 radar those older battleships would easilly have a chance to destroy even the Yamato, especially during a night battle. Oldendorf's force also had 7 cruisers (3 Cleveland-class, 1 Brooklyn-class and 3 other heavy cruisers), which were also upgraded with the new MK8 radar too, so they would be able to take care of the only 2 surviving Japanese cruisers (the other 4 Japanese cruisers had already been sunk or crippled during the chase of the carriers before). So even if Kurita had not withdrawn but instead kept on hunting for the carriers, he would eventually be caught by Oldendorf's older battleship group from the South which would then defeat the Yamato. And then TF34 was also coming from the North at the same time too, making the trap complete. There would be no escape for Kurita. No matter what he would have done at that moment, his forces were doomed from the start. It's the same with Japan's fate as a whole. No Matter what Japan would have done in the war, there was no chance it could ever win against the strongest Industrial and technology Power in the world (USA). It was rigged from the start. They never had a real chance to begin with. The only way Japan could have won would be to not attack the USA in the first place.
Good post. All what Kurita _could_ achieve at Samar would be _at best_ destruction of three groups of escort carriers. All this for price of loosing core of the Japanese battle fleet. Would it change the course of war? Of course not. Would it change result of the great Battle of the Philippines? Nope. Would it force US Navy to adjust their plans and probably replace the escort carriers force with 1st class carries for a time? Almost sure. But at the end that would be all what Kurita would achieve even if he would be 100% successul at Samar.
@@coreygibson15 The static models are from Task Force Admiral by Drydock Games, the action footage was recorded in World of Warships by members of Vae Tyrannis, Identity Crisis, Armed Potatoes, Barely Functional Scandinavians, The Art of Warfare and Horde of Eccentrics. I helped organise the alternative-history "re-enactment" as part of my role with Vae Tyrannis.
This is a more interesting hypothetical than the historical IJN Samar force vs the theoretical max strength TF34. That scenario is super one sided, with two more US BB and 50% more cruisers and destroyers. Although in that case it turns into a chase as Kurita would almost certainly attempt to retire fairly quickly once the IJN counted six modern USN battleships. I appreciate the effort and analysis to set up plausible forces involved. That's the basis for everything that follows. It would be easy to just pop down some arbitrary forces or to assume one side or the other had perfect recon.
Loved this "what might have been" analysis - while lucky hits can't be ruled out, all things being equal this is how I have always thought a straight out fight between the US and Japanese surface fleets would have ended if aircraft carriers were not involved. The US were, by this stage of the war, making excellent use of radar-directed gunfire which I think would have proved decisive.
As someone who carries the name Sullivan, I appreciate the special touch with The Sullivans delivering the final blow. Thouroughly enjoyed the wargaming play by play breakdown of the fight.
I assume you know that: "Lee participated in 14 events at the 1920 Summer Olympics in Antwerp. He won 7 medals (5 gold, 1 silver, and 1 bronze), all in team events.[5] His teammates for the various events were Dennis Fenton, Lawrence Nuesslein, Arthur Rothrock, Oliver Schriver, Morris Fisher, Carl Osburn, Lloyd Spooner, and Joseph Jackson. Lee and Spooner ended the 1920 Olympics with 7 medals each, the most anyone had ever received in a single games. Boris Shakhlin was the next person to reach 7, in 1960. It would not be until Alexander Dityatin in the 1980 games that anyone would beat the record." So I 100% agree with you.
the battle of samar has always been by far and above my favorite naval battle ever but this was quite an interesting and entertaining what if! great video!!!
It almost feels like lives were _saved_ by letting Taffy 3 handle the fight. Of course more of the Japanese Fleet would have been destroyed during the battle, but many of these ships would have never fired their guns in anger again anyway. With the exception of Yamato of course, but we all know what happened there...
@@williambodin5359 although its important to note that all his alteranate scenarios are made with the assumption that each side intends to win a decisive victory, which in admiral Kuritas' case may well not have happened, considering he made so many poor decisions that it felt like he was actively helping the americans in the engagement against taffy 3. So if a small force like Taffy made him run for it, then it would only surmise that he would bolt out of there just even faster if he saw the entire TF34 fleet, compete with 4 modern battleships. So in each of the scenarios it is assumed someone more competent and aggressive than kurita was in command. Drach mentions this in his previous alternate scenario of the battle of samar.
@@williambodin5359 Perhaps, but consider kurita's situation he had already suffered heavy losses from submarines and air attacks. his worst fear was that TF34 was somewhere nearby guarding the strait, and would lure him into a trap like what happened with the southern force. That was initially why he retreated from Taffy 3 as he believed that there was a major US fleet approaching. Plus all the losses he had already suffered. It's easy to think, that kurita might have just turned right around and bolted out of there, if his suspicions of a major fleet guarding the strait turned out to be correct.
Not to mention what happened for the rest of the war? The cruiser and BB were desperate needed for AA and shore bombardment. Would the Iowa's have been keeped for Korea Vietnam and Cold War. The world wonders
I have to imagine that, had this occurred, Washington would've been fought over as a museum ship. so not only do we have the fight we were denied, but we get another museum BB out of the deal.
That also applies to the Iowas, as they saw even less surface action than Yamato (at Truk they were only able to get involved because Spruance intentionally spared some destroyers and a training ship from the carriers-and their involvement outright made things worse by reducing Japanese losses, which is just plain bad)
@@bkjeong4302 perhaps, but the Iowas are still around. The war may be over, but their journey hasnt ended. If they are needed once again, they shall be front and center, ready for battle
@@Jax2777 They continue to exist, but they never have and never will get the chance to do the one thing that would justify their existence-taking out enemy battleships. They were obsolete upon launch, just like Yamato.
@@Jax2777 They won’t be needed again. USS Constitution is more likely to return to the battle fleet than are the Iowas; at least her propulsion gear can be quickly brought back into service.
To be fair, Washington versus literally any BC that isn’t a G3 or a Kirov is only ever going to end one way barring Hood-tier bad luck on the Washington’s part.
Consider what happens if the US battlewagons arrive right at the end of the historical Taffy 3 fight. Instead of being deployed for a fight they're planning to take, as in your scenario, the Japanese are already rattled by what Taffy 3 has done in its own defence. Then Lee arrives. Do you think the conditions exist for a rout and slaughter?
I think the slaughter would have occurred if and only if Halsey was big enough to let Lee take charge of the fight. Don't forget Halsey's flagship was BB-62 NJ. So technically speaking Halsey outranked everyone in the battle line. He could assume command if he chose to. And I have far less confidence in Halsey in conducting a BB fleet action than Lee.
If the Japanese met with the main American force instead of Taffy 3 in basically any scenario the conditions would have existed for a rout. If they were softened up by Taffy 3 first it would just make it go a bit faster.
Easily...the cruisers are already battle damaged and there were concerns or fuel usage. And they were running on something like 70 hours of little to no sleep, then fought a battle...then to go to battle stations against ships with actual dangerous guns that defeats their armor? Only the Yamato and musashi can resist 16 inch Iowa shells, the rest of the ships I would say probably turn away and run. The battleships stay, but they die, because the US ships are landing hits within the first couple salvos. The IJN are still testing range while their exhausted repair parties are putting out fires and patching holes.
Been a joy sailing in the line for you drach. Though i don't remember my "Iowa" beeing that hard battered 🤔 Though cheers to the mates in the Kongos... The poor sobs 😂
Pinned post for Q&A :)
Anymore videos on Guadalcanal coming up?
What are some examples of major endemic flaws in any given country’s Navy which were present over a long period of time?
Hi Drach.
Was wondering about the sounds of battle and how through different eras the sounds of battle would have changed to the ordinary sailor during a fight?
If the Saipan-class light aircraft carriers were to be commissioned in 1944, how effective would they be in the fleet?
Question i’ve been struggling with over the last few months, really hit me hard as i closed the tabs my essay and class was in at 4:30 and then saw this was up and promptly started this up- why must i always think it is smart to listen to your videos instead of sleep?😂😂😂 great work tho thank u so much for your work here!
What if this actually happened and 77 years later someone ran a battle simulation on the alternate scenario of "what if TF34 was not there?" What if Taffy3 alone was attacked by Yamato and the entire center force. How would the battle have played out? I guarantee no human or computer would have predicted the actual outcome as it really happened.
truthfully I don't think anyone THERE could have. but there is no code or calculation that you can run that will factor in the human side.
They're getting away
@@jeebus6263 Best one liner of the whole war.
I'm pretty damn sure that the odds of what actually happened happening are greater than million to one odds, I would say somewhere in the order of probably billion or trillion to one odds
How do you measure the courage in the hearts of the sailors and men of "Taffy 3" that walked the decks and maned the guns ??? ... it is not possible.
As a bit of a side note, as with all alternate histories,
" Captain E.E Evans USN retired from the Navy in 1952 after 21 years and returned to Oklahoma. He worked as a manager for a local oil company for 28 years and had three children. Ernest E Evans died in 1994 at 86, having led a full and happy life".
Rest in peace, Captain Evans. Those who sacrifice themselves to certain death so that others may live have no other equals.
Another side note:
Admiral Lee receives the congressional Medal of Honor and promotion to full admiral at the end of the war. USS Washington is preserved as a museum ship in puget sound and in the 1970s, the US Navy names one of the new Nimitz class aircraft carriers, the USS Willis A Lee
@@DASCO2136 Lee deserves having a major ship named after him. He wasn’t the most glorious admiral, but he was competent and effective. A pity we’re naming carriers after politicians, many of whom have done rather less for the nation.
@@jamesharding3459 legit, we have carriers named after Reagan and Ford, where’s the carriers named for Lee or Halsey?
@@jamesharding3459 Ah yes, doing things the British way (calling ships Nelson, Hood, Rodney etc) after our historic admirals is always a good idea!
And this would have started DECADES of claims that Yamato's crew scuttled her.
Her hull needs to be left intact enough to build a space battleship inside in secret.
This would have made Weebs claim that the only reason why the US Battle Line did so well because Musashi wasnt there (ignoring that the US would have sent Sodak and Mamie if Musashi did not sink).
24:48 the Americans have captured objective A. And game over.
nope, Japanese fight until death, get your memes right
According to this alternate history it ended in a mushroom cloud just like in the real history.
Nice of Admiral Lee to have the USS The Sullivans to give the coup de grace on the Yamato. Ultimate message of revenge for Guadalcanal.
the Yamato was sunk in April of 1945
try Musashi
@@robertyoung3992 He's referring to Drach's alternate history scenario here where The Sullivans does finish off Yamato, not the actual history of the ship.
@@theMoerster guess they didn't watch
That is a nice touch, I also was thinking: The Sullivans better not sink in this battle once I heard its name in the video.
"Stand aside. I am coming through. This is 'Ching' Lee."
Tough guy indeed Mr Rackstraw
"No time to do a full wargame".... proceeds to give detailed accounting of tactics and individual hits in a realistic manner.
Yes he did very well but usually they do many many takes of the same battle to get the best idea of what would likely happen
Using wows
Drach was referring to the actual war gamed ship movements which for example he did with Jutland. Unfortunately, such detail is apt to be lost on folks unfamiliar with naval history, jargon, and so forth. Still, I agree with you that the battle was presented with the minimumlevel of details Drach's fo,,owers and supporters expect.
I'd be interested in hearing the results of a full war game, although I don't think they'd differ too greatly from what was presented here.
That would be fun.
I’ve always felt that while a great slugging match between the (arguably) best battleships of all time would be a neat thing to see, the story of Taffy 3 would have (and has had) a significantly larger impact on US Navy lore.
Though the Taffy 3 story has been massively distorted and exaggerated in the process to the point where the pop culture narrative is significantly different from what actually went down (largely due to poor historiography that ignored not only Japanese primary sources, but multiple American primary sources as well).
I would also argue that a Yamato vs. Iowa match actually happening would lead to massively distorted perceptions of battleships re: their actual value, which is really saying something given how overrated the Iowas are already in terms of usefulness (Yamato isn't nearly as overrated as she's generally called out for her uselessness, though in this scenario I can imagine she could become overrated in the same way as well)
I agree Wesley. In had this action taken place, the first Kamikaze attack would most likely have been against the remaining TF34 capital ships, rather than a carrier.
It is just possible that this scenario, which in effect would see a battleship fleet protecting the vulnerable Escort Carriers from what could only be seen as complete destruction, would have given a lot of impetus to the battleship stalwarts. With them alone having protected the Leyte landing from two sides this could see a shift back from the carrier-centric approach otherwise used all through the Pacific war.
That would quite possibly have seen battleships retained in service in greater numbers post-war, despite the cost. Which other elements would have seen funding cuts is not too hard to imagine - the big carriers, and their aircraft. I doubt that the Forrestal class would have gone unbuilt; but that design may well have been delayed and smaller, maybe even emerging as improved Midways with angled decks? The big carrier and matching aircraft development progress would be more constrained for decades.
I have no idea how that might have influenced world affairs? Imagine battleships turning up in place of carriers for some of the post-war political hot spots!
@@John.0z Technically the USN retained a large Battleship force postwar anyway, and didn't say goodbye to their last until 2011; though it's certainly the case that greater emphasis would have been given.
@@John.0z Considering that battleships were definitely obsolete at this point retaining more battleships would be a bad move.
@@bkjeong4302 The advent of Night Fighters pretty much would have ended the battleship in any case. The One place where the battleship was still viable against the carrier was at night when the carrier couldn't attack with impunity... even that faded shortly after the war.
So, yeah. Heartily agree.
Drach: "USS New Jersey is matching up against Yamato, She's gonna have one hell of a fight"
Me: Might be an understatement
Drach: "And in Nagato's case, her partner is USS Iowa"
Me: Oh...
Yeah, I was thinking the same. The reaction on the Nagato upon realizing that must have been: Oh crap...
@@rcgunner7086 Yeah, but compare THAT to anyone on Haruna realizing they're facing the ship that put down Hiei? Brown trousers, please.
@@AnimeSunglasses The Washington pole-axed *Kirishima*
@@budwyzer77 ...oops, that's what I meant. D'oh.
Kongou: Burning Love!!!
Alabama: SWEET HOME ALABAMA!!!
Haruna: Watashi ha Daijoubu desu!
Washington: Well, time to have a second one!
"Shimakaze somehow has come out of it relatively intact."
The power of SPEED
And Yukikaze's luck has run out.
Was it piloted by the ghost of fisher?
20:38 someone who was apart of the WoWs battle visualization brought an actual Tone, so Drach has supertester friends it seems
Washington vs Haruna, basically any battlecruiser, is really just a gunner exercise for the Washington. sm
In the Guadalcanal II battle (14-15 Nov 1942), the Washington and South Dakota plus some destroyers battled the Kongo-class battleship Kirishima, some cruisers and destroyers. The American battleships got separated early in the battle. The American destroyers engaged with the Japanese fleet, and the American battleships largely held their fire for fear of hitting friendly ships. The Japanese concentrated fire on the South Dakota. The South Dakota suffered an unfortunate loss of electrical power and could not fire back effectively. The Kirishima was getting the best of South Dakota when Washington finally could identify Kirishima and then Washington buried Kirishima with radar-directed gunfire. The bottom line is the Kongo-class battleships Could damage and probably sink American battleships, and if the Americans' radar fire control is disabled, the odds were not extreme.
@@stevehofer3482 *At point blank range and with South Dakota completely disable due to electrical failure. The Kirishima got extremely lucky to be in such a position and even then I highly doubt her 14 inch shells could sink the South Dakota by themselves, it would’ve required several torpedoes to finish her off. I could be wrong but I don’t think any of her shells penetrated the main armor belt. She wrecked the upper works but the ship was in no danger of sinking. If South Dakota hadn’t suffered the electrical failure and had a proper (or still afloat) fleet screen that battle would’ve gone very differently.
@@stevehofer3482 The South Dakota was in NO danger of sining.
@@robertelder164 I don't think I said that South Dakota was in danger of sinking, at least not from the hits that she suffered in the battle as it went, but if the Washington wasn't there to save the day, it's possible that the Japanese ships ganging up on the South Dakota would have been able to sink her eventually.
Washington: Observe, Haruna. This is how I killed your sister.
I’m sure Ryan Szimanski will be proud to hear his ship took on the mighty Yamato and effectively won.
I'm sure he's relieved he still has a job.
@@alanmcclenaghan7548 but what does that do to their Battlestar count?
right now he's (still) hoping for aliens so they can tie Enterprise
Yesterday The New Jersey fought the Rebel Republic over on Battleship NJ channel "Would New Jersey survive what destroyed the Death Star?" LOL
@@chronus4421 yes I watch that this morning, very entertaining.
@@chronus4421 yep, I was one of the people commenting with the corrected number
since he guessed rather than using it as an excuse to rewatch New Hope or at least pulling from wookieepedia
Battleships: Obvious result
Cruisers: Obvious result, given that the IJN got two more cruisers
Destroyers: Obvious result
Second round: Obvious result
End result: Decisive US Victory. Kantai Kessen, everyone!
And somehow the USS Johnston STILL managed to get there first.
STILL managed to be the ship that did the most damage, took the most damage and sank heroically only due to the weight of Cdr E. Evans' MASSIVE steel balls.
I just saw one in a random battle today.
I like the idea that the battle drifts closer and closer to Samar. That Taffey 3 just jumps in anyway.
44:17 I see that "Battleship X" was so desperate to get into a serious surface engagement, that she's dressed up as her sister to try to sneak in as "Alabama" :D
Me: Oh boy, I wonder what my home state's battleship pulled off..
Drach: USS Massachusetts still wouldn't have been there
Me: ReeeeeeeeeeeeeEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
Ohio: all we've got are submarines. :(
@@jazzhandssixninesixninesix40 Yeah, but it packs quite the punch.
@@jazzhandssixninesixninesix40 didn’t Ohio get a pre-ww1 battleship
@@jacobnugent8159 Yes. The only one of the continental forty-eight that never had a constructed battleship named after it is Montana; a bit ironic considering the Montana-class is rather famous for a class of ships that was never even laid down. Although a fun fact is that the second of said class was planned to be named Ohio.
The Washington is the MVP of this scenario, more or less single handedly having rendered the entire Kongo Class extinct, and killing the largest battleship ever constructed.
Maybe in that case it will have become a museum ship
I think not, probably the Kongos could run because they had a speed of 30 knots, Washington and Massachusetts had 27 knots. But probably they was going to sink by planes.
The Iowas dont was going to chase off the kongos because they "was" fighting with Yamato and Nagato.
@@D.AKULA_TK208
By the time WWII had started, all vessels of the Kongo class had been highly reconstructed over the interwar period. By the attack on Pearl Harbor, they had all undergone massive upgrades to their overall armor, bringing a lot of the existing armor up to the original maximum of 8 inches. However, despite reworking much of their propulsion systems, they gained over 4,000 extra tons in weight, and subsequently were reduced in speed by 2-3 knots, putting them well within the speed ranges of both Alabama and Washington.
@@justat1149
No. The Kongos were rebuilt in the late 1930s, received all new boilers that greatly increased power and made them capable of 30 kts at flank bell.
I also feel the need to point out that USS JOHNSTON HAS BEEN FOUND mostly intact with the hull number clearly visible.
She's loud and proud, still on patrol.
@@johngregory4801 Also one mile deeper than Titanic. Because she has to go that little bit farther than expected.
@@Shutterbug5269 Touche!
@Nihil Patel guns still trained for action. I was wrong, she's TWO miles deeper than Titanic the deepest wreck ever found.
The old girl is still pushing that little bit farther.
@Nihil Patel Yeah, I'm sure she's got it around there somewhere. Captain Evans had brass ones, that's for sure.
Thank you for kindly featuring our work in this video Drach! Ready for the next round when you are! :)
Cheers!
Damn. I keep forgetting that, historically, the entire Takao class is put out of action in less than 48 hours.
As one of the people who asked about this scenario when the video of the 7th Fleet intervening in the Battle off Samar was released, I very much appreciate Drachinifel taking the time and effort to put this one together. Thank you, sir!
Unless 7th Fleet hit the Southern Force harder and faster and was convinced of no lingering threat, they likely would not have been able to steam up in time unless they set out immediately after destroying Southern Force. The best chance at that, would be if someone on Japan's side radioed their defeat with it being picked up by American Intelligence and not any of the Japanese ships or Imperial Naval Command.
Of course, if Drach is willing to disagree and find a possibility, I too would enjoy such a video.
@@FLJBeliever1776 To clarify, Drachinifel made a video before this one about what would have happened if the 7th Fleet had intervened ("The Battle of Samar (Alternate History) - Bring on the Battleships!" dated March 6, 2019), and I then mentioned that, as you say, this scenario seemed far more probable than that one. So I'm very glad Drachinifel covered this scenario. :)
Admiral Kurita: Can't I Kessen?
Admiral Lee: No.
ok this is the best comment here
And you get a Medal of Honor, and you get a Medal of Honor, and everyone gets Presidential Unit Citation woow!
OK Opra...
I want to see the real Kantai Kessen:Taffy three
No, the real Kantai Kessen:Center force vs. The old battle ships.
The REAL Kantai Kessen: One sided slaughter by the fast battleships.
Perfect
I'm sure Ryan Szimanski will be happy that USS New Jersey was chosen to lead the fight with Yamato. More so with the fact that USS New Jersey effectively crippled Yamato. Might finally net her more battle honours than USS Enterprise. ;p
P.S. Hi Ryan/Drach if you read this. :)
one of the big ones he wants is that 20th battlestar, so she ties Enterprise, this probably lowers her awards as she sits out the rest of the war instead of earning them like candy for shelling shores
After all these years, this is the first time that I have seen someone propose a factual, realistic scenario as to how such a battle might have happened - along with a realistic historical line of battle for both sides.
Aside from further debate as to how the battle itself would have played out - such as Kurita realizing that he WAS up against a major part of the US fleet, loosing his nerve, and saying "oh hell no", and retreating as he did historically - this is far and away the best analysis of this "what if" scenario I've ever seen.
Well done sir, my respects.
Welcome to Drachinifel's channel. This outstanding video is normal here. You want to see Drach at his best watch the real battle of samar.
Drach dis not raise the bar for these things. He put a 15 inch shell in it and made a new one.
I will say this about Kurita. He was having a very bad day after a very bad day. He lost 3 cruisers to Submarines (2 sunk- including his and 1 badly damaged). Then Musashi gets sunk (and another cruiser damaged?). Then he (thinks) he's facing one of Halsey's battle groups (with at least one more likely in the area).
The Taffy planes attacking were everything and the kitchen sink from Taffy 3, 2 and part of 1.
He couldn't see Taffy 2 and 1 - 3x28 aircraft per escort carrier= 84 aircraft for each visible carrier (about the compliment of a fleet carrier for each visible target).
He also wasn't informed by the army of the presence of the escort carriers.
Is it any wonder he had a case of rampaging paranoia?
He sees 6 "fleet" carriers on the horizon. He gets attacked by roughly 450 aircraft from 18 escorts (2/3 invisible).
He has to think Halsey is near with the other 9 carriers in TF 38.
Had he stayed and killed off Taffy 3, then moved on to Leyte, he would have remained dogged by Taffy 2,1. Three or four of the old battleships from the Surgaio Straight would be steaming North (historically, they had been dispatched). Halsey would have arrived in time to catch what remained of his line to annihilate him as he passed back through the strainght after a bombardment mission of even short duration.
His best hope - kill 6 escort carriers, Get some shells into the 57 ships and maybe force some liberty ships to beach.
If lucky, blow up an ammunition ship and damage ships around it..... this result at the cost of his entire fleet.
Between more than 300 aircraft harrying him the entire way, old battleships pounding his bombardment force, Nashville firing for all she was worth (and a Brooklyn can throw alot of shells really fast). He would then have to deal with 14 destroyers hitting with guns (only)... and then limp back late enough for TF38 to finish him.
More than 160,000 troops were landed days ago, having proceeded inland with their first load of supplies already delivered. What was in harbor was the second round of supplies and they had had 12 hours warning to begin unloading, beaching all the LSTs (which should already be empty by the next morning). That only really left 20 or so Liberty ships as targets worth shelling (any troops long since evacuated).
Loss of nearly 100% of Center Force vs 6 light carriers and forcing beaching 20 liberty ships.
Meh... I don't like those returns.
No real impact on the landing (far too little too late).
Read Task Force 34 's moment of Glory by J.Lanham Pearson a booklet on if TF 34 Stayed by the strait 32 pages Nimble books
@@paladamashkin8981 "Drach dis not raise the bar for these things. He put a 15 inch shell in it and made a new one."
In this case wouldn't it be a 16 inch shell?
@@scottgiles7546 - Drach is British :> So, probably 15 inch shell, unless you hold back Warspite and permit the honor to Rodney
Salute to Iowa's Number 2 Turret. Thank you for your service in two timelines.
I liked that detail.
"There's curls of smoke coming out of various apertures, but no-one really knows what happened within the turret except that it stopped firing".
Rest in Peace, gentlemen.
Enterprise and the rest of the Essex-class when meeting Yamato at Samar:
"Send our regards to Musashi"
Yikes lol
@UNSCForwardontodawn with the brother's names written on the torpedoes, either 1 each or all on every(it was 5 torps so either works)
@@artbrann Five Sullivan brothers, five torpedoes per launcher on a _Fletcher_-class destroyer. Works for me!
Speaking of which. Halsey would have been kept in the loop (so to speak) as to what’s happening. Once he hears Task Force 34 engaging centre force. Combined with the Northern Force barely putting up a fight. He may order one or two of the carrier groups to double back and launch an air strike at Kurita in support.
@@ph89787
Would that be enough for Zuikaku to limp away, and stay afloat long enough to watch the Surrender in Nagato's place?
I’m pretty sure that the only reason such esoteric topics such as this are voted for is because you’re the only publicly accessible individual with the requisite knowledge and mental acuity to be able to work out all the ‘what-ifs’. And good on ya’ we love you for it! Keep up the good work sir!
“Where is Task Force 34? The World wonders. “
What might have been.
Thanks, Drach!
When Drach said he wouldn’t be able to completely war game the alternate history scenario out, I thought, aww shucks, that’s too bad... Well..., what you gave us was so fantastically detailed and extensive... thanks so much, really one of the best “...what if” explanations I’ve ever heard or read, Thanks Drach!
It is not even the worst outcome for the Japanese. The worst would be getting intercepted by TF34 on the way back out of historical battle of Samar - down to 4 cruisers, most of the torpedoes spent. None would have escaped.
and maybe in that case they have to fight the third group from TF 34 as well.
@@timwf11b It would be interesting to know historical position of TF34 at the time Halsey received first call for help from 7th fleet. Would he make it back to San Bernardino straight on time? Even if ships wouldn't have made it, planes surely would.
@@dmitry.s315 Literal swarm of planes. easy mid hundreds
The absolute worst case scenario for the IJN would have been what *almost* happened - Admiral McCain and his breakaway TG38.1 from Halsey’s snipe hunt showing up before the Center Force got back to the strait. If they had shown up with two Essex-class fleet carriers, two Independence-class light carriers, 3 heavy cruisers, one light cruiser, and 15 destroyers, all prepared and armed to engage a significant surface force, Kurita would have been in a world of trouble.
@@SamCogleywhy are there carriers in a surface engagement
"...Making it the single most successful U.S. battleship in history."
The sad part about this statement is that the State of Washington would still refuse to fund USS Washington as a Museum ship and she'll be sent to the scrappers.
Maybe in this scenario Lee also survives and the State of Washington suddenly feels compled to presurve her
@@historytank5673 I don't think so. Socialists are stubborn. When they make up their mind that they're not going to do the right thing, nothing will stop them.
"You three deal with one half of their battleships, and I will deal with the other. This is Ching Lee."
Happy to hear that my ship the USS New Jersey battled Yamato into the sea and survived to talk about it! I live 5 miles up the river from her and she’s always been my favorite battleship for as long as I can remember!
If this event had actually happened, I wonder how pissed the Royal Navy would’ve been in missing such a major surface fleet action.
Probably not at all. At the time of Leyte Gulf the Royal Navy's East Indies Fleet consisted of one squadron each of battleships and cruisers, three destroyer flotillas, four submarine flotillas, and a number of smaller craft. The single battleship squadron, consisting of the four survivors of the World War One-vintage Revenge-class, was considered so vulnerable they were based in modern-day Kenya, while the rest of the Fleet had its base in Sri Lanka.
The East Indies Fleet (redesignated the British Pacific Fleet in November 1944) would eventually grow to over 200 vessels by the end of the war, but in October 1944 it was no match for (and nowhere near) the Japanese surface fleet. I'm sure the British would've been more than happy to let the USN have this one.
I'd imagine they'd feel sad they missed it but then a sense of pride seeing their rebellious child go from the uncertainty left by Pearl Harbor to such a decisive victory against what was one of the most powerful navies the world had seen.
Edit: Then I'm sure one RN officer would say something to the effect: "Oh dear, the Americans will never let us hear the end of it".
I suppose it is worth mentioning that the RN was sort of present at Leyte Gulf in spirit. The heavy cruiser HMAS Shropshire and destroyer HMAS Arunta of the Royal Australian Navy were present on the right flank of Task Force 79 at the Battle of Surigao Strait.
Well, they had Jutland and they fucked it up.
@@zerefsunlimitedshipworks I mean...Beatty.
Yamato: Stay down
New Jersey: I can do this all day
As Admiral Lee steams off into the sunset, if one listens very closely you can hear a melody set to a rock guitar anthem, "America, FUCK YEAH"
If Drach was teleported back in time to be my history teacher, I would have gotten strait A's!
Hey, don't be so selfish. Teleport him back to a bit before WWII and let him give the allies info that would allow them to dominate at sea!
You mighta got A's in History, but this sentence gets a B+ in Lang/Lit
@@audiosurfarchive not bad for a H.S. drop out then, thank you!
@Raymond Leone I'm unsure myself.
I'm worried it was a misspelling rather than a pun.
@@elonwhatever regardless it’s brilliant
Oof. As an Iowan every hair on my body stood up when you said Lee called on The Sullivans to finish Yamato.
"he would say something along the lines of Time to Get Another One." That is something Lee would definitely say.
Followed three hours later by "And make sure they STAY down!"
I just re-watched the alternate history with the battleships - so this is very timely - thanks Drach
Same actually
Sounds neat link?
After 25 years as a SWO, O6, and, service aboard all four BB61 Class, I have never seen or read a more content analysis.
Captain im so jealous!! Had orders to Missouri out of A School, but her deployment ahead of Desert Storm changed things, and wnded up on an AFS... Double dissappointed since Id already been aboard her in Bremerton as a kid just before she was reactivated.
Very excited for this - just finished reading The Last Stand of the Tin Can Sailors!
Just started reading Last Stand... last night
One of the best nonfiction war books I've ever read. It reads like an adventure novel.
@@brianmorgan7703 Poor mr Hornfischer cancer that was bad
Everyone knows you gotta have tf34 show up at the exact turning point like it's Pelennor Fields
Arise, arise, Sailors of Brooklyn
Guns shall be shaken, Hulls shall be splintered,
a sword-day, a red day, ere the sun rises!
Sail now, Sail now, SAIL! Sail for ruin and the world's ending!
Death! Death! Death!
Forth TF34!
Good to know there are still Ring Nuts (not that other kind) about.
Nope, The Johnston has to show up and save TF34.
@@UNSCrearadmiral Many Fletchers were given to the officers and men with one Fletcher to rule them all, USS Johnston.
@@Thirdbase9 To be fair would the big Johnson power merely, as the new group arrived do a close support firing mission down the battle line underneath the enemy guns and take out each bridge in succession with its guns?
While it wouldn’t have been considered as amazing as the actual battle, this would have still had claims to fame as perhaps the biggest naval gun battle in history, the biggest battleship engagement since Jutland, and the final blaze of glory for battleships vs battleships.
British Admirals(and quite possibly the Entire Royal Navy)would be Embarrassed for
a) Missing out on Quite Literally the Last Battleship v Battleship Gun Duel
b) Seeing the USN Dunk the IJN into the Pits of Poseidon, when Britian had that chance with the German High Seas Fleet and Fucked it up in Jutland
c) Being a Massive news that Britian no longer Ruled the Waves, Nelson would perhaps roll in his grave
&
d) Cement US Battleships as the Worlds "Best" Battleships ever built, something Britian has been vying to let it's battleships claim that title
Mad, I was just thinking about the Battle off Samar.
The only realistic outcome is USS Johnston going Super Saiyan.
Haha if anything Johnston and Samuel B Roberts would both chase after the retreating Japanese fleet just to finish them off.
Samar really showed the balls on USS Johnston, as it were. It's literally one of the only vehicles that could unironically have a set of fake nuts hanging off the back.
@@SlavicCelery making a pair big enough to do justice would have caused a brass shortage.
Drach, you forgot to take into consideration whether or not Kurita mistakes his opponents for DDs and DEs so orders his forces to load HE instead of AP.
Kurita Sees: New Jersey
.
“The main battle line is headed by a Benson class. Load the Type 3’s.”
I was driving some visitors to Philadelphia around and one asked what that DD was over there, not knowing of any Naval visits I asked where? He pointed at the BB NJ! across the river... one never knows.
@@tank762 - I am unsurprised, yet still dumbfounded.
@@tank762 If the Tillman's had been made, the Iowas would've been considered DDs XD
"Iowa's belt rejects the shell with minimal damage"
Background video: Iowa explodes
@YAKUMO RAN Is there a historical example of late war, radar guided VT shell fire frim multiple BBs being overwhelmed by huge numbers of Japanese planes?
Thank you, Drachinifel.
Just imagine the scale of the of the battle if the battleships actually dueled! The ultimate clash of the Titians!
Just imagine if we swap the New Jersey for Montana, ahh yes, Clash of the Gods
you said it mister moore
Oh boy, this is gonna be as lit as Yamato getting bombed to oblivion
that was the Musashi
@@robertyoung3992 And the Yamato too
@@robertyoung3992 Look up Operation Ten-Go.
What if TF 34 was there?
The world wonders....
(Possibly the most famous Freudian slip of WWII)
I see what you did there.....
Halsey deserved those words. He blundered like a rookie and almost suffered one of the worst defeats in naval warfare
@@LukoHevia Agreed, Spruance or Fletcher would have been better as their prudence would have inherently worked against the Japanese, probably leading to a far worse defeat for their forces with the exception of Ozawa's northern force not taking as much of a beating but almost certainly doom for Kurita's center force.
@@MrDirigible Indeed. Spruance wouldn't have taken such a reckless gamble, knowing that the war was already pretty much decided. Some might call it "over-cautious". I call it "being smart"
and given the Japanese maintaining radio silence thru the Battle of Surigao Strait, there is fair odds that the carriers can all launch at northern force later that or very early the next day(not sure on the timing) and net the quadfecta, sinking or completely decimating all 4 fleets
There has been a lot of talk about Iowa vs Yamato but this is much more realistic in terms of how it would likely play out, with, while yes, Yamato, herself, being very powerful many of her escorting battleships at the time were relatively old and/or not up to par with their American counterparts which would mean that, even if Yamato could hold off Iowa, once New Jersey and the other battleships got through with the older Japanese battleships it would only be a matter of time before Yamato found herself simply outnumbered and outgunned, hosed down by 14 and 16 in shells coming from multiple directions.
Although considerable damage would be inflicted on the American fleet, possibly even losing a battleship some cruisers and destroyers, the Japanese Center Force would be destroyed in the process.
So, I believe that your scenario has an obvious and blatant error. Here is how it goes....
Captain Evans of the USS Johnston anticipates a Japanese attack and charges out of Taffy 3's formation to assist TF34. Upon seeing the arrival of the Johnston, Yamato leaps 100 feet out of the water, spins onto its back, falls into the water and sinks itself. The rest of the Center Force runs away.
@rpr6.5 creedmoor not after shoving its respectable sized Peener up Kumano effectively mind breaking her and leaving Suzuya in a near Peener-drunk state
Weirdly I think less people died at Samar because a somewhat small force of ships drove off a larger Japanese force. Had TF34 been there then it would have been a bar brawl and thousands on both sides would have died.
Plus the IJN had no aircraft. The USN aircraft attacking also made the battle far worse.
At the time though, it would've been impossible for anyone to predict the outcome of that, so they would've tried to block Kurita to protect the Taffy groups and the Leyte landing force. For all the admirals knew, the IJN force could've decimated them.
The engagement _with_ TF34 might have been so decisive that it would have ended the war almost one year early.
Without its surface fleet, the Japanese Home Islands would have been open to devastating attacks.
No the Japanese would have gotten annihilated
They were stationed in Malaysia 4 year without access to proper maintenance
Their fire-control systems needed major maintenance.
to be fair, this scenario is assuming kurita doesnt just immediately bolt out of there upon seeing the entire TF34 fleet guarding the strait.
if taffy 3 was able to spook him, then imagine what the entire TF34 fleet would do.
Haruna vs Washington
Haruna: _Why do I hear boss music?_
Because you're fighting one, Haruna.
And it looks like your designers using Protection as a dump stat is coming back to bite you.
"Send my regards to Kirishima."
Not daijobu!
Because your opponent killed one of your sisters.
Because you are in the sites of Ching Lee. He's looking at you through his binoculars right now. And you know what comes next, pal.
I love that you point out The Sullivans loosed a five-torpedo spread. One from each brother.
And another five in case Yammy didn't get the message.
and hopefully each of their names on those "fish"
Interesting side note is an entry in Wikipedia regarding chaff and something to consider for a future scenario:
“In the Pacific Theatre, Navy Lieutenant Commander Sudo Hajime invented a Japanese version called Giman-shi, or "deceiving paper." It was first used with some success in mid 1943, during night battles over the Solomon Islands. Competing demands for the scarce aluminum necessary for its manufacture limited its use. On February 21, 1945, during the Battle of Iwo Jima, Giman-shi was successfully used prior to a Kamikaze attack on the USS Saratoga. “
Post war Halsey was heard to frequently wish he'd been in charge during the Battle of Philippine Sea and that Raymond Spruance had been in charge of the Leyte Gulf campaign. Spruance would not have charged north with the bulk of his fleet and if the circumstances presented itself would have probably taken all six fast battleships into San Bernadino straits under his direct command. He was a surface officer who had taken Iowa and New Jersey hunting surface targets at the end of the Truk raids.
This is the most intense fight that never happened.
The Japanese had been stuck in Malaysia for a year, their fire-control systems needed heavy maintenance
That's why they're going to be against taffy 3 was so bad
If the American battleships had shown up it would have been a turkey shoot
Awww, Drach. You just couldn't look Ryan in the eye and say, "Sorry about your ship, mate."
Thank you so much Drach. So high quality, and so informative but with a splash of humor too it. You really are amazing. Thank you for everything you do. Happy to hear Sullivans gets to finish off Yamato as she is located about an hour away from me in Buffalo New York!
This is like, the holy grail of AH for me 😄, in big part because of how close it was to actually happing and also because of how big the resulting battle would have been.
Thanks you for the vid sir. 😃
Also this in fact is the timeline in which NASA realises the extent of the damage to Columbia's wing on STS-107 and send Atlantis to rescue the crew in orbit. There is absolutely no connection between the two, but I am invoking the butterfly effect damn it!
@@TBone-bz9mp except that after exhaustive post studies that couldn't happen. The Columbia crew would have suffocated a week before they got there. Unless NASA straight up ignored all safety checks and just said fuck it let's risk two orbiters and crew.
There was no way possible for Atlantis to be ready for space in time.
I have to argue, based on Friedman and Campbell, that the USN's optical fire control systems are superior to the IJN's. The USN BB's had Mk.38 fire control directors w/26.5' stereo RFs, feeding the Mk.8 rangekeeper supported by the Mk.41/43 stable vertical along with the 44' stereo RFs, producing fire control solutions that with remote power control means that the guns are on continuous aim. While Yamato had the newest Type 98 system with very good long base RFs, her system was less automated and used "follow the pointer" turret control systems. The three older ships are using fire control systems basically equivalent to the previous generation USN system, the Type 92 and Type 94 directors, computers and inclinometers. Neither Japanese system had a reliable stable vertical, meaning the USN's BBs and newer CA/CLs could produce firing solutions while turning and remaining on target, a capability absent in the IJN's BBs or CAs. The USN's FCS was also more redundant, flexible and capable, since the FCS can assign main turrets to Mk.37s and there are secondary control stations in the conning tower and each turret. Also, with no air cover, both sides could try to use aerial spotting beyond the horizon. Given the availability of US fighters off the CVEs, the US BB's could launch OS2U-3's and stand off even without radar, beyond the visual horizon (22,000-26,000 yds) at near maximum range where the "superheavy" 2,700lbs shells were even more effective against decks, while the IJN BB's would be firing at whatever gunsmoke or flashes they can see, at least until the USN DDs lay a smoke screen which fully blinds the Japanese but not the aerial spotted US gunfire. With the Mk.13 and Mk.8 Mod.3 fire control radar, the US BBs could do the same thing as the radar horizon is farther than the optical horizon, again allowing them to fire OTH while the IJN remains blind.
very complex electronic-systems for WW2 standards Mr S
I visited the Island of Samar before since i live in The Philippines and I never knew before I became a History Buff that there was a battle here before. I was only taught about Leyte Gulf and not the other subsequent separate battles located there.
90% of all we learn should be inspired by one's own curiosity!
@@leebenson4874 Facts!!!
There's too much history to learn in high school. I got my bachelor's in history even, but I've learned more about history by reading books over my 52 years.
I swear to god when you said “We have to address the elephant in the room” I thought you were going to say USS Johnston
Nah, the Johnston is the mouse that the elefant is scared of.
Thank you for this video. It's fantastic, the best way to present history I have ever seen. By using the computer graphics and game graphics to such an effective degree introduces a new way of teaching the events of the past. So as the one lonely voice out here I say please keep it up please keep doing this this is fantastic and thank you very very much.
As one of the people involved in organising the game footage, it means a lot to hear this- thank you! :)
@@CaptainHat Yes. Spot on. With this kind of effort, you might get a hit out of this.
Drach is excellent, by which I mean I agree with him mostly.
His pronunciation of names is hideous, but his engineering knowledge is not to be dismissed at all, thus his conclusions make sense. His treatment of this is probably accurate, which leads us to this: why would God let all those battleships be gored when He could just let the taffys and the Johnston' destroyer division suffer with far less casualties and damage and still have the victory?
But only He could know that beforehand, no?
What if TF34 was there?
Ah yes, the world wonders.
As a side note, Halsey later recalled that he was more angry about that than Typhoon Cobra, because it embarrassed him during the middle of the battle in front of all his subordinates. They had been receiving a constant stream of frantic messages from Taffy 3 for help, so his comms team felt it was pertinent to include the message padding, which made him lose it and throw his hat on the floor while cursing.
@@Meatwadsan justified
Halsey was a damn idiot and forgot why the US Navy was there in the Philippines to begin with: Landing troops for the invasion, taking back the Philippines.
He left the landing force vulnerable like a goddamn idiot.
@@Warmaker01 General Patton, is that you?
Had a good laugh! Thanks!!
Really enjoy the channel, thanks for all you do! One of my favorite PC games was called Taskforce 1942 simulating naval battles of WW 2. It was great fun to set up different scenarios involving Yamato vs any opposing force I could dream up to the limit of what the game could provide. It's a little shocking to me that TF 1942 came out in 1992..... good heavens.... 30 years ago already. I remember one mission in particular where I set up a US battleship and as many destroyers as the game could support vs Yamato - when the simulation completed the game automatically filed the battle report under the heading - " American target practice". Which was quite appropriate - the animation of the battle pretty much looked like the Yamato was being rained on.
Me, reading title for the first time: "Wait, what would Soviet tank be doing there?"
Some legendary tank crew that swam across the Pacific ocean to find those Japanese that took a toll in Mongolia, i assume
It was there as payback for all those Japanese torpedo boats that attacked poor, old Kamchatka during the turn of the century!
@@PaperclipClips They were this close to revenge.
TF-34, short for Tank, Floating - 1934 *XD* .
Damn Russian bias!
Another very interesting alternative scenario would be: instead of retreating, Kurita would have pressed on the charge to the south to continue hunting the fleeing Ameircan carriers to sink as many carriers as possible, ignoring any casualties and losses his forces would suffer in the process. Eventually Kurita would be met by Oldendorf's older battleship force which was guarding the invasion forces at the South. Oldendorf's battleship group consisted of the 2 Colorado-class, 2 Tennessee-class, 1 Pennsylvania and 1 New Mexico-class battleships, the same battleships that had destroyed the Yamashiro (Fuso-class) battleship the previous night in the Surigao strait.
Although these older battleships didn't have as big guns like the Yamato, but they had one major advantage: they were upgraded with the new Mk8 Radar (the same radar which the Iowa-class had), which was the best radar at that time. It was the first radar in the world that enabled accurate blind fire at long range even without direct visual contact. This new radar helped the American battleships to pinpoint Yamashiro in the dark night and hit accurately with the first shot at 20km range. With this new Mk8 radar those older battleships would easilly have a chance to destroy even the Yamato, especially during a night battle.
Oldendorf's force also had 7 cruisers (3 Cleveland-class, 1 Brooklyn-class and 3 other heavy cruisers), which were also upgraded with the new MK8 radar too, so they would be able to take care of the only 2 surviving Japanese cruisers (the other 4 Japanese cruisers had already been sunk or crippled during the chase of the carriers before).
So even if Kurita had not withdrawn but instead kept on hunting for the carriers, he would eventually be caught by Oldendorf's older battleship group from the South which would then defeat the Yamato. And then TF34 was also coming from the North at the same time too, making the trap complete. There would be no escape for Kurita. No matter what he would have done at that moment, his forces were doomed from the start.
It's the same with Japan's fate as a whole. No Matter what Japan would have done in the war, there was no chance it could ever win against the strongest Industrial and technology Power in the world (USA).
It was rigged from the start. They never had a real chance to begin with. The only way Japan could have won would be to not attack the USA in the first place.
Good post. All what Kurita _could_ achieve at Samar would be _at best_ destruction of three groups of escort carriers. All this for price of loosing core of the Japanese battle fleet. Would it change the course of war? Of course not. Would it change result of the great Battle of the Philippines? Nope. Would it force US Navy to adjust their plans and probably replace the escort carriers force with 1st class carries for a time? Almost sure.
But at the end that would be all what Kurita would achieve even if he would be 100% successul at Samar.
Glad Massachusetts didn't get her perfect record broken even if it did mean staying out the fight
Really liked the use of World of Warships visuals, definitely added to presentation!
Great use of 3D models, photos, and maps. It really brought the theoretical scenario to life!
they used world of warships
@@coreygibson15 The static models are from Task Force Admiral by Drydock Games, the action footage was recorded in World of Warships by members of Vae Tyrannis, Identity Crisis, Armed Potatoes, Barely Functional Scandinavians, The Art of Warfare and Horde of Eccentrics. I helped organise the alternative-history "re-enactment" as part of my role with Vae Tyrannis.
@@CaptainHat I stand corrected
This is a more interesting hypothetical than the historical IJN Samar force vs the theoretical max strength TF34. That scenario is super one sided, with two more US BB and 50% more cruisers and destroyers. Although in that case it turns into a chase as Kurita would almost certainly attempt to retire fairly quickly once the IJN counted six modern USN battleships.
I appreciate the effort and analysis to set up plausible forces involved. That's the basis for everything that follows. It would be easy to just pop down some arbitrary forces or to assume one side or the other had perfect recon.
Wow I clicked before the Q&A was up
Same
Well the Q&A is slow to come up now..
Hearing how the IJN would play their DDs and CAs, sounds pretty much how I play Victory at Sea
Washington would be up there with the old Lucky E after a history like this.
What if indeed maybe the Washington would of been made a Northwestern naval museum
The last time I was this early, the HMS Hood was still in active service.
Wow you got here much earlier than me. The last time I was this early the Bismarck still had a working rudder.
Loved this "what might have been" analysis - while lucky hits can't be ruled out, all things being equal this is how I have always thought a straight out fight between the US and Japanese surface fleets would have ended if aircraft carriers were not involved. The US were, by this stage of the war, making excellent use of radar-directed gunfire which I think would have proved decisive.
As someone who carries the name Sullivan, I appreciate the special touch with The Sullivans delivering the final blow. Thouroughly enjoyed the wargaming play by play breakdown of the fight.
Admiral Lee, the sniper of the Pacific War.
I assume you know that:
"Lee participated in 14 events at the 1920 Summer Olympics in Antwerp. He won 7 medals (5 gold, 1 silver, and 1 bronze), all in team events.[5] His teammates for the various events were Dennis Fenton, Lawrence Nuesslein, Arthur Rothrock, Oliver Schriver, Morris Fisher, Carl Osburn, Lloyd Spooner, and Joseph Jackson.
Lee and Spooner ended the 1920 Olympics with 7 medals each, the most anyone had ever received in a single games. Boris Shakhlin was the next person to reach 7, in 1960. It would not be until Alexander Dityatin in the 1980 games that anyone would beat the record."
So I 100% agree with you.
indeed so mr babilon
the battle of samar has always been by far and above my favorite naval battle ever but this was quite an interesting and entertaining what if! great video!!!
In the US Army, the tank with the best gunnery record would be known as the “sniper tank.” USS Washington would be the “sniper battleship.”
Thanks for the great video Drach! And congrats on 250k!
It almost feels like lives were _saved_ by letting Taffy 3 handle the fight. Of course more of the Japanese Fleet would have been destroyed during the battle, but many of these ships would have never fired their guns in anger again anyway. With the exception of Yamato of course, but we all know what happened there...
@@williambodin5359
although its important to note that all his alteranate scenarios are made with the assumption that each side intends to win a decisive victory, which in admiral Kuritas' case may well not have happened, considering he made so many poor decisions that it felt like he was actively helping the americans in the engagement against taffy 3.
So if a small force like Taffy made him run for it, then it would only surmise that he would bolt out of there just even faster if he saw the entire TF34 fleet, compete with 4 modern battleships.
So in each of the scenarios it is assumed someone more competent and aggressive than kurita was in command.
Drach mentions this in his previous alternate scenario of the battle of samar.
@@williambodin5359
Perhaps, but consider kurita's situation he had already suffered heavy losses from submarines and air attacks.
his worst fear was that TF34 was somewhere nearby guarding the strait, and would lure him into a trap like what happened with the southern force.
That was initially why he retreated from Taffy 3 as he believed that there was a major US fleet approaching.
Plus all the losses he had already suffered. It's easy to think, that kurita might have just turned right around and bolted out of there, if his suspicions of a major fleet guarding the strait turned out to be correct.
Do note that Oldendorff’s forces were trying to intercept Kurita towards the end of the Battle off Samar.
Not to mention what happened for the rest of the war? The cruiser and BB were desperate needed for AA and shore bombardment. Would the Iowa's have been keeped for Korea Vietnam and Cold War.
The world wonders
Fantastic video! This has always been my favorite "what if?" scenario from the Pacific Theater and I enjoyed hearing your take on it.
I have to imagine that, had this occurred, Washington would've been fought over as a museum ship. so not only do we have the fight we were denied, but we get another museum BB out of the deal.
My new favorite,Drach video.
Atleast this way, yamato would finally get the battle she deserved to see.
And 2 of the Iowa class to be fair, this would also give them the battle they deserved to see
That also applies to the Iowas, as they saw even less surface action than Yamato (at Truk they were only able to get involved because Spruance intentionally spared some destroyers and a training ship from the carriers-and their involvement outright made things worse by reducing Japanese losses, which is just plain bad)
@@bkjeong4302 perhaps, but the Iowas are still around. The war may be over, but their journey hasnt ended. If they are needed once again, they shall be front and center, ready for battle
@@Jax2777 They continue to exist, but they never have and never will get the chance to do the one thing that would justify their existence-taking out enemy battleships. They were obsolete upon launch, just like Yamato.
@@Jax2777 They won’t be needed again. USS Constitution is more likely to return to the battle fleet than are the Iowas; at least her propulsion gear can be quickly brought back into service.
To be fair, Washington versus literally any BC that isn’t a G3 or a Kirov is only ever going to end one way barring Hood-tier bad luck on the Washington’s part.
Consider what happens if the US battlewagons arrive right at the end of the historical Taffy 3 fight. Instead of being deployed for a fight they're planning to take, as in your scenario, the Japanese are already rattled by what Taffy 3 has done in its own defence. Then Lee arrives. Do you think the conditions exist for a rout and slaughter?
I think the slaughter would have occurred if and only if Halsey was big enough to let Lee take charge of the fight. Don't forget Halsey's flagship was BB-62 NJ. So technically speaking Halsey outranked everyone in the battle line. He could assume command if he chose to. And I have far less confidence in Halsey in conducting a BB fleet action than Lee.
If the Japanese met with the main American force instead of Taffy 3 in basically any scenario the conditions would have existed for a rout. If they were softened up by Taffy 3 first it would just make it go a bit faster.
Easily...the cruisers are already battle damaged and there were concerns or fuel usage. And they were running on something like 70 hours of little to no sleep, then fought a battle...then to go to battle stations against ships with actual dangerous guns that defeats their armor? Only the Yamato and musashi can resist 16 inch Iowa shells, the rest of the ships I would say probably turn away and run. The battleships stay, but they die, because the US ships are landing hits within the first couple salvos. The IJN are still testing range while their exhausted repair parties are putting out fires and patching holes.
Amazing vid. Quite an interesting hypothetical scenario, and with tons of in-depth info.
Been a joy sailing in the line for you drach.
Though i don't remember my "Iowa" beeing that hard battered 🤔
Though cheers to the mates in the Kongos... The poor sobs 😂
Thank you for this very interesting "what if" simulation. The animation truly brings your wonderful narration to life. Well done!
"Your conclusions were all wrong, Ryan. Halsey acted stupidly."
Had enough time for this before having to start the work day! A good start, indeed!!
What a welcome birthday present! Thanks drach!
Happy bday!
I send my regards have a good day