If America LOST The Battle Of Midway: 'Japan Invades Hawaii And Russia Struggles To Fight On'
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- Опубликовано: 31 июл 2024
- In early June of 1942 the might of the Imperial Japanese Navy steams towards Midway, a 2.4 square mile piece of US territory, Tokyo commands its fearsome carrier group to seize the strategic foothold, sever vital supply lines and cripple the Allied war effort.
But unbeknownst to them, code breakers have intercepted the order and alerted the US Pacific Fleet. Within days, the island that Hawaiians call the backbone of heaven would become the setting for a hellish battle with devastating consequences for Japan's Pacific ambitions.
The Battle of Midway would turn the tide of the Second World War, but what if it had failed?
00:00 Introduction
02:03 Japanese Pacific Expansion
05:32 Superpowers Promo
05:53 Midway explained
14:46 Main battle
18:52 McClusky’s decision
20:00 Flight to nowhere
25:49 What If Japan could have won at Midway?
33:38 A U.S. defeat explained
35:47Japan invades Hawaii
39:05 Soviet Union impact
42:35 Impact on Australia
44:05 The Manhattan Project
45:35 Outro
Welcome to History Undone with James Hanson, a channel that looks back at pivotal moments and asks 'What if?'. We'll be looking at key battles, strategic decisions and political outcomes with leading historians and current military experts and tacticians to see what might have happened differently, and more importantly, what impact those differences might have had on the world today.
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I was happy that the panel didn't seriously consider the Japanese invading Hawaii, or even more ridiculously, the west coast. The logistical effort and manpower commitment for the Japanese would have enormous, while on the American side the islands could have been greatly reinforced with troops, aircraft, and submarines as part of the "hold the line" strategy that was discussed.
You're right. If the Japanese had taken Midway, Hawaii would have been reinforced to an extreme. All things considered, the Japanese would have gone back to their efforts to cut of Australia. The logistics favored them and they only were deterred the last time by the U.S. carriers. Great podcast. Entirly credible.
Wow you should be a military advisor! 😂
They did it to China.
The analyses I've read about "Invade Pearl Harbor" scenarios boil down to: the IJN had the logistics to do either the invasion of the Dutch East Indies (with its crucial oil fields) *or* of Hawaii - they didn't have the shipping or supply capabilities to do both. Even keeping the farthest outposts of their defensive perimeter supplied was a task the IJN too often failed at - after a successful invasion, which was no sure thing, trying to keep Hawaii secure and supplied would likely have been too much for the Japanese to manage.
🙋🏽♂️I will 2nd you on this. Invasion of Hawaii never makes any sense. It's too far. Too well defended with an entire infantry division. And has a huge civilian population. Also, we are talking more than just Oahu. The logistics don't work. The manpower doesn't work. In practice the Japanese barely were able to support Wake Island. Even if they take Midway; US submarine forces from Pearl harbor will blockade.
"...even if it had lost catastrophically at the Battle of Midway, the United States Navy still would have broken even with Japan in carriers and naval air power by about September 1943. Nine months later, by the middle of 1944, the U.S. Navy would have enjoyed a nearly two-to-one superiority in carrier aircraft capacity! Not only that, but with her newer, better aircraft designs, the U.S. Navy would have enjoyed not only a substantial numeric, but also a critical qualitative advantage as well, starting in late 1943."
Aircraft carriers built, 1941 - 1945 US: 141 Japan: 17
Aircraft produced, 1941-1945: US: 324,750 Japan: 76,320.
More like 1944. By the end of 1943 there are only two new USN CV's in theatre; Essex and Intrepid
@@Conn30Mtenorand how many escort or light carriers?
What really happened at Midway, with the Yorktown getting repaired in two days, last minute preparations, dive bombers screaming toward their targets might have been rejected as a plot for a movie for being too unrealistic and in the realm of fantasy.
But it really happened.
The men of the Vestal were there doing there bit. Ton for ton one of the most important ship in the Pacific
Movies are unrealistic by definition
I kind of disagree. Japan couldn't have logistically supported an invasion of Hawaii at that distance from the home islands. They couldn't even regularly supply the islands they took during the Midway operation (Kiska and Attu), and those are a shorter distance from Japan.
Midway, as a base for a Hawaiian invasion would have been totally inadequate. No major harbor or facilities and Japan didn't exactly have the equivalent of the Seabees.
Having taken Midway, they might have found it constantly under aerial attack by land-based bombers from Hawaii and surrounded by US submarines.
You reached the same conclusion that most of the Japanese leadership did. They could take Midway, but taking Hawaii was almost impossible to take. Senior Japanese leadership also believed that Midway was likely to be retaken fairly quickly as they were not going to be able to logistically sustain it as while Midway was within range of Hawaii for Japanese aircraft, the American heavy bombers were within range of Midway from Hawaii.
With no one to truly challenge Japan they would've had breathing room to build train use newly acquired resources it would've been a true disaster. Now no doubt it would eventually succumb to US industrial might but at what cost. Not to mention how our indespencible efforts in Europe would've had to be put on the back burner at least.
I dont agree with that. They had the ability to mobilize troops to Hawaii, they choose not to drop them. The island had all the resources they needed to stay firm. The oil and fuel would have sustained the IJN while cutting the US's ability to field deep PAC opps.
@@aurorajones8481 What oil and fuel? The stuff in Pearl harbor? Do you think that stuff would have been left intact for the Japanese to capture? Not to mention any significant infrastructure?
@@matthewnoto9380Yeah, it would definitely have not been captured, a la Mayakop oil fields in USSR. The biggest impact would have been on the operations of US naval forces as it was THE major fuel node. Tbh, if the pearl harbor strike concentrated on fuel depots instead of ships, the resulting damage would have been immeasurably worse. At least a year's delay of operations in the Pacific for starters....
For anyone not familiar with Montemayor's channel, his videos on this very topic, as well as other Pacific operations of WWII, are superlative masterpieces.
I was gonna say the same thing and provide a link lol
The Midway battle from the Japanese perspective is excellent, the absolute best.
@@dongilleo9743 💯
Absolutly.
Montemayor does a great job highlighting the critical decisions of Admiral Nagumo, and how they weren't as simple as is sometimes assumed.
It would have delayed the inevitable. The Japanese stood no chance.
I have strong doubts that the Japanese had the logistical capability to successfully invade Hawaii
Exactly my thoughts. I will watch this video soon and then check if it changed my mind
@@marcneef795 I think they'd have been more likely to move to isolate Australia, and go after India.
@@fembotheather3785 Yes they say it in the video themselfes. Only the title is a bit clickbaity.
Invade yes, hold the line no.
They would have had trouble invading midway itself let alone Hawaii
I can tell you how Americans would have reacted to a loss.
Anger and resolve. The rage after Pearl Harbor, had not dissipated. My Grandfathers agreed to the ravenous need for revenge. Both fought from December 7 to VJ day.
My maternal Grandfather was on the Light Cruiser Phoenix.
My Paternal Grandfather was at the Brooklyn Navy Yard.
My father was a Seabee on Guadalcanal.
@@johnpombrio Respect. The only job tougher, was medical corpsman.
Great round table gentlemen, and Jon's shirts RULE!
Yes, it's *Jon* .
I highly recommend reading the book Shattered Sword by Jonathan Parshall and Anthony Tully. It’s an in depth look at the Japanese Navy through journals and interviews on the Battle of Midway. In it, they discuss the pacific strategy.
I have the book on my bookcase!
I read it twice
John Parshall is great! He was kind enough to respond to an email from me once and shared some thoughts at a professional level as to becoming a historian. John, if you’re reading this, thank you, your email meant a lot.
Jim
Excellent analysis. I learned stuff
Good job, subscription worthy. I'm pleased I came back and gave the format another go.
Thank you, very pleased to have you on board!
High quality production. 👍
Your content here has earned you a subscription. Keep up the interesting work
What a great channel, right up my alley! Subscribed
Very informative. Really enjoyed this. Thank you.
Great channel!
Thoroughly satisfying, you gained a new subscriber.
Wonderful commentary!
great video. Thanks
Excellent discussion. I look forward to more content! I humbly submit the battle of Actium for a future episode.
What a fantastic video!
Excellent presentation gentlemen. I have subscribed
Parshall talks I listened
I see the Jon Parschall wallpaper I'm used to from other RUclips videos.
@@kemarisite same here. All that was missing was a looney shirt.
I am guessing you have read "Shattered Sword". A great read.
Parshall writes, I read. His pic on the thumbnail got me here.
@@spikespa5208 yep. I'm looking forward to his book on 1942.
Outstanding show with two excellent historians! Always enjoy listening to Jon, and love his sense of humor.
Outstanding presentation! I love this stuff. The counter factual/ historical fiction discussion is my favorite part. Well done! 🎉👏🏼👍🏻👊🏼
Excellent discussion. Earned a sub!
One of the best shows on Midway I’ve ever seen. Mahalo and aloha from Hawaii. 🤙 This channel deserves to grow exponentially. Subscribed and liked. 😉👍
very interesting analysis.
Great video
The man who made the “Courageous decision” to attack early and at range wasn’t Spruance it was Frank Jack Fletcher who was in overall command at Midway.
Fletcher was in command of US carriers during the first three carrier on carrier battles in history taking on the IJN at the absolute height of their powers and coming away the winner 3-0.
It’s criminal to talk about this battle and not even mention the American Admiral who was in command and who performed brilliantly.
"Experts" lol
Who might that be?
thx 4 clarification.
Fletcher was in overall command but really he did SOP nothing more.
@@julesscangojr.35I find this group..... Wanting. To be kind
Great and interesting discussion and insights.
Great discussion
Great video. Just subscribed.
Despite the advantage of intelligence, Midway was a near run thing. The US could have easily lost....
Bold! Daring! Remember though that Nimitz (who was in charge of fleet personnel in Washington before being sent out to the Pacific) KNEW about the massive buildup of the US fleet coming in the next 6-9 months. He could afford to take the chance of this fleeting opportunity.
Japan will have two or three more months of superiority, America was building one carrier a week, America economy was 20 times the Japanese economy.
GREAT HISTORY lesson. Thanks
I had never seen anything from your channel, before today. But as soon as I saw the picture of John Parschall, I knew I was going to get accurate information.
Anything with John is worth listening to. Shattered Sword is a magnificent history of Midway.
What a great idea for a YT channel, History Undone!
Excellent presentation
Shattered Sword is a great book. Don’t miss a chance to pick it up
I have both the paperback and Kindle versions. Outstanding read.
I have a signed copy
Good mixing of in-studio appearance and remote Face Time computer screen
I love you channel dog
I have always loved these "What ifs of history!"
Looking forward to your Undone version of the attack on Pearl Harbor. What if the Japanese fleet is detected before 12/7? What if the radar operators realize those are not B17’s to the North. If the alarm had been raised in time, how would the Hawaiian defenses have fared? All the fighters lined up in rows to be destroyed on the ground are instead scrambled to meet the Japanese in the air? Great work.
And don't forget that the Enterprise was nearby, and the Lexington and Yorktown weren't too far away either
In coral sea, the Japanese had the light carrier sunk, shoksku heavily damaged. The zuikaku received no damage. But her air wing was decimated. So she was out of action because her air group needed replacements in pilots. Not because she was damaged
Yeah, and the Japanese seem to have had a weird system around that too. In the USN, we would have transferred planes and pilots from somewhere else to fill out a carriers air complement so it could go back out to sea with a full complement ASAP. In the IJN, they seem to have largely viewed their squadrons and pilots as part of the ship and refused to do much/any reallocation.
@@ColonelSandersLite exactly. In midway, saratogas torpedo squadron joined Yorktown to replace her losses at coral sea.
Fascinating
Sarah Paine’s The Wars for Asia gives a good account of Japanese thinking that systemically misunderstood how its own harsh actions brought down surprising wrath from the foe it expected to bargain with.
Thanks for the recommendation! Just a couple of months ago I finished a book that advertised "from the Japanese leadership position", because I wanted to learn more about their end-game. How did they think it was going to turn out? Frankly I was disappointed in the book. Whatever the high command was "thinking", what were they saying? Did they send serious diplomatic missions to the U.S. about ceasing hostilities and establishing detente?
After centuries of Western colonization Asian countries would have welcomed a powerful Japan. The Japanese, instead, became even worse oppressors. In a way China is repeating that mistake today.
Great guest and interesting topic. Would love to see an episode about the battle of jutland or the the battle of the Marne in the beginning of WW1
It's coming!
I always wondered about Midway, how the battle was won by a thread, however I do believe in the inevitability of the US vistory and the use of the Atomic Bomb. Great show gentlemen, I love alternate history!
I was looking this morning at the order of battle again and reminding myself of some of the oddities. While Hornet and Enterprise had intact air groups (VF-6, VT-6, VB-6, and VS-6 for CV-6 Enterprise and likewise for Hornet), Yorktown (CV-5) had a composite air group that included VF, VS, and VT-3 from the Saratoga (CV-3). The only squadron from Yorktowns own group is VB-5, while the Saratoga squadrons had apparently been training in San Diego for a while waiting for January's toroedo hit to be repaired.
I was also thinking about the Flight to Nowhere episode, and a question occured to me that I dont remember seeing in Shattered Sword (I obviously need to reread it). Fletcher was in overall command, correct? So when Fletcher issued and signaled an order to attack the carriers that had been spotted, did that go from Yorktown to Enterprise to Hornet, or from Yorktown to Enterprise and Hornet simultaneously? In other words, were Mitscher and Ring ignoring the brand new Spruance (because the order was telated through Enterprise), or were they ignoring the other black shoe admiral who had experience in carrier battles, Fletcher (an order from Yorktown to Enterprise and Hornet simultaneously)?
If you can do Napoléon vs Wellington and Blucher at The Battle of waterloo make sure your experts are thoroughly read up. I don't want to hear that Bonny waited for the ground to dry up when his cannons couldn't be dragged across muddy wet fields quick enough
This is like the Cliff notes version of the Battle of Midway, but it is a pretty good one.
Consider what would have happened if Japan had not attacked the US.
Lets see the battle of Mons !!!
41:48 Yak and La fighters, and Il-2 are great examples. There is countless variants of those ac. When Soviets got more and more lend lease aluminium, part by part the wooden parts were replaced by metal.
Great job, fascinating discussion on the Battle of Midway. You folks have to do the Battle of Stalingrad.
This was a pivotal battle in WW2, and initiated the downfall of the Third Reich.
God idea. What if Hitler had left the operations in Russia to the genereals. Had the generals entering the Caucusus had full authority over their forces, could they have reached the oilfields, or at least denied them to the Soviets?
Thank you for the discussion. Love Johnathan Parshall's presentation. The alternatives, there are thousands of possibilities. Within two years America will have 2x-3x the fleet the Japanese have
I've seen videos and read essays concerning this subject, and I find their arguments less than convincing.
Japan did not have the logistical capability to consistently resupply outposts at the edges of territory they historically did control- and that was with minimal interdiction by Allied forces. Had the US lost the sea battle at Midway and Japan was able to invade and conquer Midway, they would have had a very small island outpost another several hundred miles east of Guam. However many troops deployed there would have needed food. The planes would have needed gas and ordinance. This would have had to be delivered several thousand miles from their home islands or about a thousand miles from their advanced bases at Rabaul and Truk. A handful of submarines could have made resupply VERY difficult. And an invasion of Hawaii would have magnified exponentially the difficulty Japan would have experienced invading and holding Midway.
Jon Parshall is an uncredible historian, his book Shattered Sword is really good and so in depth, almost a courtroom like analysis of the battle. He also comes across so well in film this and in other podcast appearances
I've read from a interview that McCluskey was going to go in the direction of the destroyer anyway. Seeing it just confirmed his decision to continue the search in that direction.
Low on fuel, he probably would not have gone far enough to see the Japanese fleet.
I've watched/listened to nearly every video or seminar Jon has done that is available on RUclips and I know this: Jon hates counterfactuals!
It would be interesting to track how the term "dive bomber" became part of the American vocabulary after Midway. I know the B&O named a yard transfer job "the dive bomber" for the way that the locomotives would "dive" on the rear of a freight train to "pick-off" the caboose and rear crew to take them back to where they started.
I can imagine a cocktail with the name "dive bomber."
Those interested in a bit of history on RA Dr Chris Parry, watch the video 'BBC Sailor 06of12 1. Officer Territory'. from 1977 when he was a young sub Lieutenant. Very interesting look back in time.
Great channel. Would love a discussion on if Confederate strategy, in the spring of 1863 after Lee's victory at Chancellorsville, had of focused on the western theater, staying on the defensive in the east and reinforcing the west against the offensive moves of Grant. Basically I'm referencing the famous Confederate White House meeting of Davis, his cabinet, and Lee where the decision was made to focus east and invade Pennsylvania over the objections of Postmaster Reagan. What is the likely outcome if a large segment of the Army of Northern Virginia (ANV) had been sent to deal with Grant? A fascinating scenario is, what if Jackson had not have died after Chancellorsville? What if Lee had assigned Jackson and his ANV corps west to deal with Grant. What if Lee himself headed west? Could Grant have been defeated outside of Vicksburg? If so, what would be been the implications?
An important note the American should have made. Yorktown was a direct sister to Enterprise so looked very much a like. Hornet was also laid out similarly so it would have been easy to mistake them. I'd hope he'd have mentioned that
The Japanese would never have moved against Russia before trying to isolate Australia.
Fun fact: William Frederick Halsey's chief of staff, Captain Miles Browning, is actor Chevy Chase's grandfather.
With a little more preparation or luck, could the Saratoga have arrived in time to participate?
Saratoga arrives in Pearl Harbor like on the 6th. And had to refuel and rearm there. It wouldn't have reached Midway till the 9th. They wound up transporting planes to both Hornet and Enterprise. Some of her aircraft also go to reinforcing Midway.
The question if the U.S. lost the Midway battle is vague in that does it mean losing a number ofU.S. carriers or the island itself or both ? I'm not at all convinced Japan wanted Midway. The reason, solely, the Japanese attacked Midway was to eliminate the U.S. ability to attack the Japanese fleet. Nagumo wanted to destroy our carriers, the same objective as Peral Harbor. The carriers were some where 2 thirds to 3 fourths of the U.S. Navy's striking power. We were very fortunate our carriers were not at Peral on Dec 7. The Japanese, most unfortunate.
The island is basically bait. The plan is to use the threat to the island to draw out the carriers. It's only the fact our intelligence caught wind of the plan does things go awry. As far as the battle? The Hornet is already combat ineffective. The Air group is basically wasted. And Yorktown is probably sunk. It's very possible the Japanese win the battle and the carriers have to fall back to Hawaii to re-equip and wait for the arrival of USS Saratoga. Then try to counterattack. Us submarine forces make holding on to Midway untenable. From Pearl Harbor, they can easily blockade the island.
Excellent content and commentators. One correction - the Russians moved troops from the Far East to Moscow in late 1941 and these troops were used to throw the Germans back from the gates of Moscow. One observation - if the Japanese had taken Midway, it would have enhanced their reconnaissance abilities over Pearl Harbor, possibly leading to additional strikes, and forcing the US fleet to redeploy to the West Coast.
The Japanese lost alot of their first rate fighter pilots at Midway, that was of huge consequence. Those experienced skilled pilots were irreplaceable.
So basically these guys are saying there's no scenario where the US loses against Japan. It sounds like they totally forgot that MacArthur retreated the first time. He only then returned after the US replenished its naval fleet. They also put too much emphasis on what the US was sending Russia. Stalin told them that he didn't need anything other than the vehicles. He said he doesn't need bombs he needs trucks. Other stuff is just what they sent along with it.
I'd always thought that for the Japanese the Aleutian campaign was just to draw the attention away from Midway. The Japanese never committed an major forces there and abandoned it fairly quickly.
Churchill was in Washington about July or so when he got the news about Tobruk. FDR asked "what can we do to help" Don't think FDR asks that question if the Japanese won at Midway.
Not only does he not ask that question. He is going to have to send more attention to supporting the campaign in the Aleutians.
I once interviewed the guy up at Nebraska Avenue who kept all those intercepts. I asked him if I could see the intercept of the Japanese message about AF having a fresh water problem. He looked at me and smiled, then shook his head. I asked why, since everything else was available. He admitted they didn't have it! I asked if it had been somehow lost or if the story was cover and deception. Shook his head. No idea.
Midway was just one of the Pacific turning points. Two others were Guadalcanal and New Guinea. Another question to ask is if Midway would even have happened without the Doolittle raid.
6:25 you need to figure out the correct way up for aircraft ...
13 Essex class carriers already on orders at the time of the battle. The massive advantage of the US in aircraft production and pilot training. The inevitable doom of the Japanese merchant marine.
I wonder if Hawaiian landing grounds were very well defended🤔
US torpedoes were defective, none here at Midway were known to work. If the Yorktown had gotten 1 or 2 boilers back on line, it might have been saved. The Grumman 4F4 Wildcats would be replaced with 6F6 Hellcats which were much better. The USN did not coordinate its air groups well. But, fight well they did!
I thought David Tennant was narrating for a second.
There's two important battles that I'd like to see. Marathon. What happens to the development of Western Civilisation if the Persians win? Two: The Tueteborg Forest. Rome defeats the Germanic tribes and annexes Germania into the Roman Empire. The consequences on the development of western Europe.
27:00 😂 they weren't trying to take and hold.... but ok
Anything with John Parshall I’m watching because he has the best shirts and knows a thing or two about the Japanese 😂.
10:30 That's an unusual Nimitz photo, in profile. I don't think have seen that one before. Kinda casts a bit different aspect of his appearance. Nice inclusion.
Part of a film about when FDR visited Pearl Harbor in 1944. It's somewhere on RUclips, heh.
Surely Japan captures Midway was the outcome of an IJN victory?
Guadalcanal Likely would have become a Japanese airbase if the US lost carriers at Midway, making the supplying ofAustralia much more difficult.
You mean suppling Australia?
@@Nitedawg1 Corrected, thanks
I wonder what would have happened if Atlanta was escorting Yorktown instead of Enterprise.
That was not going to happen.
That would be akin to the United States losing to the insurgents of the southern United States at Gettysburg.
❤
I just ordered "Shattered Sword".
Adds so much to understand how and why the Battle of Midway was fought.
Spruance had better intel. And no altitude was not what made the CAP not effective...lack of fighter direction was the reason for 10:25 DB strike
Same difference? If there was no one seeing the dive bombers at Angels 20, no one would have directed them to ATTEMPT to attack (climb up and/or attack when diving). Japan had ship board radar, just not on their carriers yet.
Wonder what the affect of type 93 Long Lance torpedoes loose below the main decks of the IJN Carriers have on the massive explosions that were detonated after 500 lb bombs penetrated their decks.
Even winning at Midway it was fortunate that Makawa didn't know the whereabouts of our Carriers the night he sank 5 Allied Cruisers in Guadalcanal Sound or he would've ruined our first offensive in the Pacific by going after the transports. That would've been a setback.
At 26:00 comes the alternate history speculation.
EVEN THOUGH the US had broken the codes and had foreknowledge, anyone looking at the forces opposed to each other would have bet on the Japanese. They had more carriers. They had more experienced pilots. They had better tactics. They had better aircraft. They had better torpedoes. What the US had was courage, aggression, and amazing luck.
No mention of the Doolittle Raid. Would the Japanese have bothered with Midway if not for the Raid? I think they would have been involved consolidating their recent acquisitions instead of expanding their defense perimeter to the east.
It is probably worthy of a few mentions. It was a major catalyst for the operation.
I disagree. If the Japanese held midway, it would have isolated the supply lines to Australia. That is why they attempted Midway.
@@duaneaikins4621 Midway is nowhere near to the supply lines. And it's too isolated to support logistically. There's not even natural fresh water.
Doolittle was not a motivator for Yamamoto and the Combined Fleet staff. The Midway plan had already been conceived and put together beforehand. It was already in the stages of being proposed "up the chain" in Tokyo, and was likely to be approved in any case. What Doolittle DID do, I think, was to help neutralize whatever objections remained elsewhere in the IJN (even Yamamoto had a boss, after all), and even more importantly, the skeptical and grudging Army. The Navy-vs-Army divide in senior Japanese decision-making is, I think, often glossed over in these types of discussions.
@@cragnamorra TY for the reply. It was comprehensive and informative. I was aware of the conflict between the IJN and the IJA but was not aware that Midway was in the mill prior to Doolittle.
I severely criticised the D Day first program as it had very little "what if" and too much discussion of known events. This talk was excellent though. Still reduce the what really happened section though to say just 10 minutes.
How many miles from the West Coast?