If I value bet the river, I would be SICK if the villain raised all in. It is unfortunate that the villain had the one hand that might have just called a small raise. A check here makes sense most of the time, exceptions for the occasional sticky timid opponents.
The biggest issue wasn’t so much that your opponent goes all in, because he would probably lead the river with the nuts. Instead what happens is he somehow turns up with a nine and then can easily call our river Bet thus value owning ourselves
@@joshmullins4849 So you're getting a call vs the one or two hands that COULD call and you're beating, versus risking your bet to all the hands you lose to. The risk eward ratio is against that play. It just so happens the villain here Might be capable of bluffing the A on a shove and exploit your fold, (dependent of player type, obviously) I'll play with you all day.
First off, I didn’t say I was in favor of a river bet. I said being worried about a shove is not the reason to be concerned. Balancing how many hands can call that you beat vs how many shove or call and we lose is obviously the right logic. I am basing a lot of this on the caller’s description of villain. Bluff shove is not happening. Sorry I am not buying that story vs this player type (very few players will on this board btw). I also tend to agree that villain will lead an A a lot so the question is just how much 9x do we lose to vs two pair that we beat if villain is calling both. Caller’s logic is pretty fine and I do think it’s close. That wasn’t the point.
@@joshmullins4849 I get it. I would be "sick" because I'm the type of player that COULD bluff shove the river as this was played out, or in similar situations. I want to be known as capable of bluffing, to get some additional calls when I do have the nuts
Given the size of the turn bet and the call, I think any river bet you're making here with KJ is turning your hand into a bluff rather than thin value. Then again, if you know the guy is an extremely passive fish, then maybe you could justify it as extremely thin value though I think you got the value on the turn.
Off subject but last night I was watching some poker night in America episodes and seen you get stuck and comeback nicely starting with the set of Jacks. I know you remember. Well played Bart.
I snap check back, because the missed nut flush draw and AT turned into the nuts, and T9 is going to make a crying call if I bet small. I don't buy the idea that Ax, AT, and 9x lead this river a high percentage. I think a villain check has more EV for him than a donk bet taking the lead from you. The only thing making me bet, is being sure that all I'm worried about is KQ, and that requires absolutely knowing villain, plus knowing that his image of you includes you checking back way more often than betting. You have way too much AK, AT, and nut flush draw yourself, for villain to bet/call even with the 9. That makes a bet by villain represent the nuts, and you too likely have the nuts for him to throw away money with a 9, a set, or 2 pair. If villain has the nuts, he knows he's not getting paid unless you bet. IMHO, you are both correct to freeze like deer in the headlights. Take the free showdown. There is a high chance that a bet by either of you is the nuts or a bluff, not thin value. Yet, there is a chance that someone will make a move and get the other to level himself into calling. One final factor. There is ALWAYS a huge danger that someone has an ace, unless proven otherwise. Don't bet into it when it's the nuts, without really good reasons. Not believing that anyone has an ace, is one of the leading causes of people losing money at poker. At limit, it is survivable, and part of keeping people honest. At no limit, it's often enough to make you a losing player.
V's like this can show up with almost anything. He's probably calling river with almost any two pair. Still not sure if that means we can bet here, where KJ is losing to any straight and KQ. I think I'd check back too.
Hey Bart & Crush Live Poker team, This may sound a bit silly but I was wondering what your thoughts are on live poker being dangerous in terms of guys "waiting outside for you" and stuff like that. I'm talking about major cities here when playing at big, established casinos, not rando shady home games. Appreciate it.
definitely like a big turn bet here. so many worse hands can call and we're almost never getting checkraised. does increase the variance and makes our hand more difficult to play on a lot of runouts, but cant make an omelet without breaking a few eggs. id be intending to check back pretty much every river where we dont make a straight. re: river bet. just too thin against mostly everyone. id need a very very specific opponent type to make it. id have to be like 100% sure hes always leading a straight and hed have to be really really sticky or have a history of not trusting me (when he says he thought youd bluff the ace, maybe you could have gone for it against this guy specifically?). against random drooler just check it back.
Could a shove not work as a wild way to value and bluff at the same time ? in some cases you fold better hands and in some cases you actually get called by worse because it’s such a obvious bluff spot for the pre flop raiser to take advantage of? Most likely shoving if you actually hold an Ace in your hand anyways
Love hearing from Nate 😋 Interesting river spot here. But what sizing could you take here? If we go small, are we calling a jam? I got the feeling the reveal with villain comment is supposed to indicate that we could have gotten called here. I'm not in love with assuming my opponents are really bad though. I was not crazy about ruling out an ace either. I do agree some people would lead with it, but what can call? That might have been an interesting discussion between Nate & Bart. Could we call a villain donk here? 💥 P.S. If I did think villain was an idiot, then I'd jam here. I'd never bet small though, because I can never bet fold here.
I was thinking about this more after I made my initial comment. I've seen V's that play this way. They can't resist x/r'ing when they have 2P or a set and you c-bet small, especially on wet boards. They fear opponents drawing out on them, and either want to get stacks in with the best of it on the flop, or want us to fold. In those hands, when they have the betting lead, they'll go for max value whenever they have the nuts on the river, but shut down and go into check-call mode when they don't. These guys will also sometimes decide to donk-lead v-bet hands they think are good when they start with a draw on the flop but then make 2P on the river. But they'll usually take that check-call/check-call/donk-lead line when the pot is small, unlike here. The common theme in their lines is "the pot isn't big enough" when they like their hand, and "the pot's big enough" when they're unsure. They're nut-peddlers. Here, because of the two diamonds on the flop, I can give V more AdXd and 9dXd hands, along with all the Broadway 2P combos, so depending on V's river bet size, it's not an easy call or an easy fold, when V could be over-playing the same 2P hands we'd target for value. But the way this was played, I wouldn't expect V to donk-lead. When hero raises pre, bets 2/3 pot on flop, and 85% pot on turn, I think V is less likely to x/r turn with KQ, and less likely to donk-lead with the nuts on the river. V seems more likely to go for a river x/r with the nuts, but make a tighter-than-usual fold with anything worse than QJ. If we put KQ back into V's range, this spot just feels like it's way too thin to v-bet hero's hand.
OGs know this isn’t the first call in hand with nearly this exact situation of QJ hitting runner runner 2pair on a Broadway board and a tough river decision
judging from what villian says after the check back, yeah he was calling. But from the description of V I think he’s here with well over 50 and pushing 100 combos of Ax. Easy check back for me. Against this specific player anyway.
I was torn between a shove, and a check. A shove to get a set to fold, and possibly get a call if he had what he did indeed have. I ultimately would have checked back as well, good play!👍😎✌🗽
@@fukers2stop It's a possible however unlikely, and I did state against a low two pair which he had. Ultimately I likely would have checked it back, but you never know when your the one sitting there!
I would have just went all in on the river. if you don't think he has an ace. I don't think he's limping king queen. So JT, QJ are def in his range. 8d7d are folding to any bet. Maybe you can accidentally get him to fold a 9 once in awhile.
Stopped at 10:00 This is a close decision, and is very player dependent. There are a few hands you are losing to, Th9h would play this way. Calls flop with second pair and backdoor flush, picks up gutter on the turn, rivers the straight, checks either hoping you have a missed flush draw, or doesn't want to lose the maximum to a A. Your hand screams K with a broadway, and all those hands beat anything other than a straight or set or KQ. Maybe a crazy QJ, but that should really only be QdJd, but that hands means your be bluffing diamonds. I'd expect TT to have raised at some point, so the only calling hands are going to be two pair,, and I don't think you get called enough here to risk it, mainly because it is the Jh. Without the River being the Jh, I would lean to a small bet, because JhTh would play this way, but it is not possible. This removes a logical combo that could call you, because of this removal, I'd check behind. Also, the Jh removes the logical QhJh combo, that would also play this way, and might very well call a bet, turning and rivering two pair. Even if foe has QJ, it would be EV- here for them to call, unless you have the image of being crazy. But the Jh means I'm checking behind.
After thinking about it, I think I'm betting river for $175. The reason being, you MIGHT get hero called by Q10, QJ, K10 type hands... But also, if the players a bit of a nit, there's a solid possibility you might fold out some 9's here. With those two combined factors, I think betting around $175 is best, but just know you're losing like 75% of the time when called. But I'd razor thin value bet this here. What do you guys think? PS I made this comment before I heard the outcome. It's real close, but I stand by my assessment before hearing the result. But I stand by my assessment, that if it's a calling station who's just gonna say 'fuck it, i know you got me but I call' then definitely don't bet here, knowing at that point he has a 9 or a set, then definitely don't bet. But if they are a thinking player who might think you're bluffing the ace, I think a quarter or third size bet here is totally right for thin value, expecting them to hero call with a worse 2 pair. Would love to hear what you guys think though Edit: The more I think about it, the more I actually like a smallish bet. I think we're getting called here (depending on player type) by worse hands, but Think we're actually getting crying folds by some hands we're losing to as well. 33 or pocket tens might make a crying fold as well, repping the Ace. It's a super weird spot to be semi value betting 2 pair but also semi bluffing something that beats us off their hand, but in this exact spot, I think it makes sense. We also have the added benefit of even if we get called and lose, that's going to mess with our opponents minds in future hands when you have it, and make them make some bad plays. I'm betting $175 on the river
Thanks for the hand review Bart, you do amazing work and the poker world is much better for having you
If I value bet the river, I would be SICK if the villain raised all in. It is unfortunate that the villain had the one hand that might have just called a small raise. A check here makes sense most of the time, exceptions for the occasional sticky timid opponents.
The biggest issue wasn’t so much that your opponent goes all in, because he would probably lead the river with the nuts. Instead what happens is he somehow turns up with a nine and then can easily call our river Bet thus value owning ourselves
Why would you be sick vs shove? I snap fold and am completely unconcerned. He will have an A 100% if he jams.
@@joshmullins4849 So you're getting a call vs the one or two hands that COULD call and you're beating, versus risking your bet to all the hands you lose to. The risk
eward ratio is against that play. It just so happens the villain here Might be capable of bluffing the A on a shove and exploit your fold, (dependent of player type, obviously)
I'll play with you all day.
First off, I didn’t say I was in favor of a river bet. I said being worried about a shove is not the reason to be concerned. Balancing how many hands can call that you beat vs how many shove or call and we lose is obviously the right logic.
I am basing a lot of this on the caller’s description of villain. Bluff shove is not happening. Sorry I am not buying that story vs this player type (very few players will on this board btw). I also tend to agree that villain will lead an A a lot so the question is just how much 9x do we lose to vs two pair that we beat if villain is calling both. Caller’s logic is pretty fine and I do think it’s close. That wasn’t the point.
@@joshmullins4849 I get it. I would be "sick" because I'm the type of player that COULD bluff shove the river as this was played out, or in similar situations. I want to be known as capable of bluffing, to get some additional calls when I do have the nuts
Given the size of the turn bet and the call, I think any river bet you're making here with KJ is turning your hand into a bluff rather than thin value. Then again, if you know the guy is an extremely passive fish, then maybe you could justify it as extremely thin value though I think you got the value on the turn.
Off subject but last night I was watching some poker night in America episodes and seen you get stuck and comeback nicely starting with the set of Jacks. I know you remember. Well played Bart.
Villain statement at the end of the hand is funny lol
I snap check back, because the missed nut flush draw and AT turned into the nuts, and T9 is going to make a crying call if I bet small. I don't buy the idea that Ax, AT, and 9x lead this river a high percentage. I think a villain check has more EV for him than a donk bet taking the lead from you.
The only thing making me bet, is being sure that all I'm worried about is KQ, and that requires absolutely knowing villain, plus knowing that his image of you includes you checking back way more often than betting.
You have way too much AK, AT, and nut flush draw yourself, for villain to bet/call even with the 9. That makes a bet by villain represent the nuts, and you too likely have the nuts for him to throw away money with a 9, a set, or 2 pair. If villain has the nuts, he knows he's not getting paid unless you bet.
IMHO, you are both correct to freeze like deer in the headlights. Take the free showdown. There is a high chance that a bet by either of you is the nuts or a bluff, not thin value. Yet, there is a chance that someone will make a move and get the other to level himself into calling.
One final factor. There is ALWAYS a huge danger that someone has an ace, unless proven otherwise. Don't bet into it when it's the nuts, without really good reasons. Not believing that anyone has an ace, is one of the leading causes of people losing money at poker. At limit, it is survivable, and part of keeping people honest. At no limit, it's often enough to make you a losing player.
V's like this can show up with almost anything. He's probably calling river with almost any two pair. Still not sure if that means we can bet here, where KJ is losing to any straight and KQ. I think I'd check back too.
Hey Bart & Crush Live Poker team,
This may sound a bit silly but I was wondering what your thoughts are on live poker being dangerous in terms of guys "waiting outside for you" and stuff like that.
I'm talking about major cities here when playing at big, established casinos, not rando shady home games.
Appreciate it.
never felt danger at a card room or casino. you can always request an escort to your car.
that's great at the end when the villain says "i was gonna snap call"'
definitely like a big turn bet here. so many worse hands can call and we're almost never getting checkraised. does increase the variance and makes our hand more difficult to play on a lot of runouts, but cant make an omelet without breaking a few eggs. id be intending to check back pretty much every river where we dont make a straight.
re: river bet. just too thin against mostly everyone. id need a very very specific opponent type to make it. id have to be like 100% sure hes always leading a straight and hed have to be really really sticky or have a history of not trusting me (when he says he thought youd bluff the ace, maybe you could have gone for it against this guy specifically?). against random drooler just check it back.
Could a shove not work as a wild way to value and bluff at the same time ? in some cases you fold better hands and in some cases you actually get called by worse because it’s such a obvious bluff spot for the pre flop raiser to take advantage of? Most likely shoving if you actually hold an Ace in your hand anyways
If I was villain and you tanked bet small on river I'd raise with just about everything. So obviously going for thin value.
Great stuff, Bart!
As always.
I’ve made a value bet like this before, but the stacks were much shallower in a tourney
Love hearing from Nate 😋 Interesting river spot here. But what sizing could you take here? If we go small, are we calling a jam?
I got the feeling the reveal with villain comment is supposed to indicate that we could have gotten called here. I'm not in love with assuming my opponents are really bad though. I was not crazy about ruling out an ace either. I do agree some people would lead with it, but what can call? That might have been an interesting discussion between Nate & Bart. Could we call a villain donk here? 💥
P.S. If I did think villain was an idiot, then I'd jam here. I'd never bet small though, because I can never bet fold here.
I was thinking about this more after I made my initial comment. I've seen V's that play this way. They can't resist x/r'ing when they have 2P or a set and you c-bet small, especially on wet boards. They fear opponents drawing out on them, and either want to get stacks in with the best of it on the flop, or want us to fold. In those hands, when they have the betting lead, they'll go for max value whenever they have the nuts on the river, but shut down and go into check-call mode when they don't.
These guys will also sometimes decide to donk-lead v-bet hands they think are good when they start with a draw on the flop but then make 2P on the river. But they'll usually take that check-call/check-call/donk-lead line when the pot is small, unlike here.
The common theme in their lines is "the pot isn't big enough" when they like their hand, and "the pot's big enough" when they're unsure. They're nut-peddlers.
Here, because of the two diamonds on the flop, I can give V more AdXd and 9dXd hands, along with all the Broadway 2P combos, so depending on V's river bet size, it's not an easy call or an easy fold, when V could be over-playing the same 2P hands we'd target for value. But the way this was played, I wouldn't expect V to donk-lead.
When hero raises pre, bets 2/3 pot on flop, and 85% pot on turn, I think V is less likely to x/r turn with KQ, and less likely to donk-lead with the nuts on the river. V seems more likely to go for a river x/r with the nuts, but make a tighter-than-usual fold with anything worse than QJ. If we put KQ back into V's range, this spot just feels like it's way too thin to v-bet hero's hand.
prepaid rake must increase the amount of time players stay
A very astute observation.
I'd bet big on turn and check back anything that doesn't make me a straight.
OGs know this isn’t the first call in hand with nearly this exact situation of QJ hitting runner runner 2pair on a Broadway board and a tough river decision
Would he call without an A or 9?
judging from what villian says after the check back, yeah he was calling. But from the description of V I think he’s here with well over 50 and pushing 100 combos of Ax. Easy check back for me. Against this specific player anyway.
I was torn between a shove, and a check. A shove to get a set to fold, and possibly get a call if he had what he did indeed have. I ultimately would have checked back as well, good play!👍😎✌🗽
yea what sets does he have in a single raised pot?
@@fukers2stop It's a possible however unlikely, and I did state against a low two pair which he had. Ultimately I likely would have checked it back, but you never know when your the one sitting there!
You want to get a set to fold but a worse two pair to call?
Set seems a very unlikely holding. 33 raises flop or turn. KK/TT/QQ mostly raises preflop.
@@JohnSmith-nx7zj Whatever! 🤷♂✌
S-o-o-o-o-o-o close... I check.
If I’m villain I’m river betting big
I would have just went all in on the river. if you don't think he has an ace. I don't think he's limping king queen. So JT, QJ are def in his range. 8d7d are folding to any bet. Maybe you can accidentally get him to fold a 9 once in awhile.
boost your winrate with what? abc poker? this is the most basic hand i ve ever seen 🎉😃
lol ngl i do love the CLP 'try to figure out what the clickbait title is talking about' game.
@@moaf2padventures757read the description
First time on RUclips?
Stopped at 10:00
This is a close decision, and is very player dependent.
There are a few hands you are losing to, Th9h would play this way. Calls flop with second pair and backdoor flush, picks up gutter on the turn, rivers the straight, checks either hoping you have a missed flush draw, or doesn't want to lose the maximum to a A.
Your hand screams K with a broadway, and all those hands beat anything other than a straight or set or KQ.
Maybe a crazy QJ, but that should really only be QdJd, but that hands means your be bluffing diamonds. I'd expect TT to have raised at some point, so the only calling hands are going to be two pair,, and I don't think you get called enough here to risk it, mainly because it is the Jh.
Without the River being the Jh, I would lean to a small bet, because JhTh would play this way, but it is not possible. This removes a logical combo that could call you, because of this removal, I'd check behind. Also, the Jh removes the logical QhJh combo, that would also play this way, and might very well call a bet, turning and rivering two pair.
Even if foe has QJ, it would be EV- here for them to call, unless you have the image of being crazy. But the Jh means I'm checking behind.
Better safe than sorry with that check back, but i would be so very tempted to turn my hand into a bluff here and go all in on river.
I'm sorry, but I about shit when the guy said they charge 100 bucks a night and I heard the response; "Oh, that's not bad".
Depends on how long the night is.
After thinking about it, I think I'm betting river for $175. The reason being, you MIGHT get hero called by Q10, QJ, K10 type hands...
But also, if the players a bit of a nit, there's a solid possibility you might fold out some 9's here. With those two combined factors, I think betting around $175 is best, but just know you're losing like 75% of the time when called. But I'd razor thin value bet this here.
What do you guys think?
PS I made this comment before I heard the outcome. It's real close, but I stand by my assessment before hearing the result. But I stand by my assessment, that if it's a calling station who's just gonna say 'fuck it, i know you got me but I call' then definitely don't bet here, knowing at that point he has a 9 or a set, then definitely don't bet. But if they are a thinking player who might think you're bluffing the ace, I think a quarter or third size bet here is totally right for thin value, expecting them to hero call with a worse 2 pair. Would love to hear what you guys think though
Edit: The more I think about it, the more I actually like a smallish bet. I think we're getting called here (depending on player type) by worse hands, but Think we're actually getting crying folds by some hands we're losing to as well. 33 or pocket tens might make a crying fold as well, repping the Ace. It's a super weird spot to be semi value betting 2 pair but also semi bluffing something that beats us off their hand, but in this exact spot, I think it makes sense.
We also have the added benefit of even if we get called and lose, that's going to mess with our opponents minds in future hands when you have it, and make them make some bad plays. I'm betting $175 on the river
So sick, maybe the 1 hand the sticky-passive player has that could have called a thin value bet…🤮
👽👍🏾
I don’t think this close at all.
That villian had no idea he was a dead dog on that street