Curtis Fox - The Rise of Russia
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- Опубликовано: 6 окт 2024
- We are diving into the heart of Eurasian geopolitics with Curtis L. Fox, author of the groundbreaking book Hybrid Warfare: The Russian Approach to Strategic Competition and Conventional Military Conflict. Launching into a deep exploration of Russia's historical military strategies and its contemporary geopolitical maneuvers, Fox offers unparalleled insights into the Kremlin's objectives, its relentless pursuit in Ukraine, and the inner mechanics of its formidable military and intelligence apparatus.
With Russia's economic tenacity and military prowess on full display, we dissect the nation's will to press on in the conflict, assess its strategic goals, and the potential ramifications on global stability. Curtis, a former Green Beret who mastered the Russian language and studied Mechanical Engineering at Virginia Tech before venturing into Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning, provides a unique perspective on what Russia hopes to achieve and the lengths it may go to secure victory.
This episode not only charts the course of Russia's military evolution from the Napoleonic era to its current engagement in Ukraine but also forecasts the possible outcomes of this conflict. Questions such as the impact of NATO's involvement, the financial sustainability of Russia's war machine, and the conditions for Ukrainian success are explored in depth.
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Thank you for having me on and for the overwhelmingly positive response. Great interview!
That was an immensely informative interview! Truly, it was an absolute pleasure to watch.
Please do more podcasts!
Excellent podcast, I really felt like I came away educated about that region, it's history and current events. Your presentation style was excellent
Very Informative
As A Citizen Soldier, Now 40 Years In, I Value Your Insights, Based On A Historic Perspective...
LinkedIn Request Sent.
I wish the gov would do more to educate the public on what the hell is going on. In any case awesomene work
@CurtisHybridWarfare - Man, this was an incredibly interesting podcast. I'm on my way to grab your current book, and honestly, I know I for one would be incredibly interested in reading that book idea. Definitely struck a cord and I'm going to bring it up for discussion with friends. Kudos and thanks for showing up.
EASILY one of the best episodes of Cleared Hot of recent memory... This was fascinating. Fox possesses an impressive grasp of the subject, and conveys the history, central figures and events with ease... Brilliant stuff here, would definitely love more of this sort of thing in the future. Thanks...
Incredibly crisp work Andy. Mr. Fox sounds truly like a download from an 18F! Will get the book! props to Mr. Fox, a hokie engineer is force of nature!
This needs to reach many more people. Absolutely fascinating. Many thanks to the three of you!
I could listen to this guy say “Pewtin” all day long
This dude just stuffed my head full of new data!! Thanks keep it coming!!
I would 100% read a scrutiny of the French Revolution. It's taught so circumspect and out of context here in the USA, that no one outside of academe has a clear picture of it. I've learned enough to have a vague understanding how horrifying it must have been to the citizens and subjects of surrounding monarchy's to watch it happen in real time from the outside.
Amazing show...Curtis is so knowledgeable...
Now this is my kind of episode
Great conversation!
Write the book, Curtis; it sounds very interesting.
80% probability that I will. May take a minute ;)
2:05:00 part where Mr. Fox talks about Russia's hybrid warfare against Finland and why stopping them from winning in Ukraine is important forgot two key parts, Russia constantly talks about their claim on the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania (and partly Poland) and also how much they feel like they have a historical, rightful claim to parts of the Caucasus and Eastern European countries that are still free. "We won't invade Ukraine"-promise has been broken three times since 2014, now they're promising the same about above mentioned states.
Ya people aso forget how the US state department has been screwing with and very likely meddling in the Ukrainian government for decades now. Just ask Victoria Nuland, she'll probably tell you
Precisely
Wow, I did NOT expect such a great interview. I know Andy likes to try and keep it light, but Curtis was impressive with his historical and holistic perspective on European history. Andy, there is nothing wrong with being a sceptic, but don't let it paralyse you're thinking. Your skepticism of giving military aid to countries is entirely based on your history in Iraq and Afghanistan. But, there is a HUGE difference between those two countries where we were trying to force Western values on a populace with no interest or experience in them (i.e. infertile ground), versus Ukrainians who are desperate for the prosperity of Western Europe and want to become good, prosperous Poles or Germans (if they can shake off the diseased and corrupt legacy of the Soviets and Russians). The Ukrainians have been fighting the Russians for a LONG time now, this is NOT the Afghans givings up in a week or two to the Taliban (after 20 years of training)...or the Iraqi Shias allowing themselves to be dominated to the Iranian Shias. Frankly, the Ukrainian military is more battle hardened that the US Military has been since Korea or WWII (because of the type of war they've had to fight against the russians). As far as the rather silly talking point about elections in Ukraine DURING AN EXISTENTIAL WAR, please do better. Could the US have a proper election if the WEST COAST was under Russian occupation? Think a bit about how that would work. We need to look at how blessed we are in the US in this regard. Anyway, it was part of the UKRAINIAN CONSTITUTION that elections cannot be held. Are you aware MOST COUNTRIES would not have elections in such circumstances?! Are you aware that GREAT BRITAIN delayed their elections during WWI AND WWII?! Does that mean GB is anti-democratic or authoritarian?!
Good points, I had similar thoughts myself. Thanks for writing them all down.
The level of information that flows through his brain and comes out eloquently and easy to digest is honestly incredible. This is SME material.
Some people should speak and others listen. It’s nice when people know the difference. Excellent interview, good work Andy.
Fascinating historical perspective! Great episode!
Man… that was so informative that I listened to it twice. I hope I see Curtis on another podcast soon!
I'm going to have to watch this again! Way to much knowledge to absorb in one go
One of the best episodes !!!!! I want to throw out a challenge. Find a similar expert on Iran. I am a security executive with a heavy West African portfolio. Everything been said here is 100% the reality on the ground. Start with CAR to see the Wagner model, then look at Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, and it’s in play already. Don’t forget Sudan…refugees don’t fight, 8 million so far.
Great podcast, I loved all of this information and found it informative and fascinating. Thanks so much, 3 hours that flew past in no time
Great episode, Just point out Finland has been preparing for war against russia since ww2.
Well there is not much else to do. Well that and sauna and maybe drink.
@@jesseterrell2109 have you visited there?
Was Finland member of NATO at the time of this being recorded though?
@@fhlostonparaphrase Finland joined nato in April of 2023 so yes. But what I meant, Finnish military has been preparing to fight russia within the political environment since ww2 ended for us. Finnish volunteers and started this right after the war by hiding lot of ammo and guns from soviets. Finland is pretty much the only European country which didn’t let the guard down after cold war etc.
@@imagle1416 Oh I get that, and I actually admire the Finnish approach, but I just meant that the guest didn't include Finland because they weren't a NATO at the time of the recording. Or he's not that updated on Finland, or simply forgot.
Out of 6 years of watching podcasts, "there but the grace of God go I" is probably the strongest way I've seen to end a pod
Your interviews have been kicked up another notch. Very interesting and informative topics lately. Not to mention fantastic guests. Keep up the great work, Andy.
Absolutely fascinating!!!
What a SUPERB Podcast! Please have Curtis on more often if possible. Thanks Guys!
Finally finished, wow that was an informative ride. HAVE THIS GENTLEMAN ON AGAIN!!!!
Didnt expect a dedicated episode on this topic on Cleared Hot. Thought it would be on one of his other interview series.
You're pretty good at this having productive healthy conversations with knowlegable guests thing, Andy.
The Eastern European countries had other ideas for their future than Putin had.
as long as they ask NATO for nuclear weapons, Russia will always have the opposite opinion. We cannot forget about Russia's interests. Ukraine forgot and paid for it.
Good conversation! Thank you!
Great guest and interview.
AMAZING episode ! Curtis Fox, the information came with such ease. The whole show … MIND BLOWN !
Two interesting things about this video...
1) Why do the comments bear the signatures of coordination/PR company tactics? That seems strange here.
2) Have always supported helping Ukraine and cheered their successes. But it seems misleading to hear this fella talk about how Russia lost all their best troops, their war-fighting capacity badly depleted, etc, while Ukraine has been objectively losing the war for over a year now. The counteroffensive failed, regrettably, and miserably. They've lost multiple cities they put everything into defending, most recently with Andiivka last week. The worst of these losses and failures by Ukraine happened while they were still receiving their highest levels of support and dollars from the West.
How can any rational or honest person look at this situation and conclude Russia is losing/depleted, or that there's any way Ukraine can "win" this side of direct involvement by NATO/US forces? Or in other words, our world leaders choosing to launch WW3? It seems objectively counterfactual and deliberately misleading.
Mr Fox did started this interview by disclaiming that " opinions expressed are his own and do not reflect the US government" this was a red flag for me. He then, in a very disappointing fashion spews out the misleading narrative we have been fed for the better part of two years. Russia army is incompetent, Putin hasn't have a clue what he's doing, sanctions ruined Russian economy, Russian forces are in a dire situation etc. Things I would expect from a mainstream media pundit but not from a Russia expert. The entire analysis very much reflects the current government campaign. Comment section seems terribly uninformed as not much criticism is expressed towards any points.
the guest scoffed at the idea of the CIA being involved in the ukraine coup and in less than a week after this was uploaded the new york times ran an article quoting ukraine's spy chief talking about how after the coup the first thing he did was call a CIA station chief and MI6, that should tell everyone all they need to know about this dude
he is a full on naive regime kool aid drinker at best or intentionally dishonest and misleading for propaganda purposes at worst. he claims there's "hundreds of thousands of dead russians" meanwhile ukraine is literally conscripting handicapped people and 55 year olds? which side is running out of warm bodies, exactly?
and i agree with @notundermywatch3163 - comment section is a total abortion
You still hold this opinions? I'm a bit curious.
One of THE best episodes ever! Fascinating stuff.
Loved this - Curtis you need to go on a speaking tour!
Really informative video. Would definitely buy the French Revolution book seeing how those practices seem to echo throughout history.
I'd read his book on the French Revolution and the idea of reinventing culture
55:52 Russian history KGB edition though.
Check out prof. Timothy Snyder’s course on Ukraine’s history for comparison.
And greetings from Ukraine!
Great job Andy
hands down one of the most informative bits of media i’ve ingested recently. superbly interesting.
Excellent episode. Please write that next book Curtis. You should host your own podcast in the spirit of Dan Carlin’s.
This was a fantastic episode and I really appreciate the deep dive and your perspectives.
Late catching this one, best episode ever, just bought Curtis’s book, what a brilliant guy 👍
One of the most informative podcasts I’ve listened too in a very long time. Thank you Andy and Curtis!
40 miles of stalled pinko armor - every A-10 Warthog and Apache pilot in the free world pilot must have had wet dreams for a week.. Thanks great podcast guys!
I really enjoyed this one. Good job!
One of the best episodes I have seen. I could easily listen to three more hours
2:27:00 The Japanese are not actually the furthest down the road, the South Koreans are. They have a fertility rate of a 0.8, whereas Japan has 1.3, which would translate in a 90% population contraction in just 2 generations. Absolutely catastrophic.
Also, the US can count on Mormons and continuously Amish (fertility rates of 6 to 9 kids per couple) to keep up their population in the long run. Being a very popular immigration target also helps considerably.
Not just a popular immigration target, but uniquely positioned for integrating immigrant populations (at least compared to any realistic alternatives).
helps? 😅
Absolutely incredible podcast. This guy has a fascinating mind. If you read this, write the book!
This is the perfect guest for this podcast. More episodes like this Mr. Stumpf!!!
Great interview! I would enjoy having a beer and discussing world affairs with him.
You made a great point with selling arms to Ukraine and it reminded me of this Old timer when i was growin up. He told me NEVER SELL A MAN A GUN THAT CAN PUT A BULLET IN YOUR BACK AS YOU WALK AWAY
One of my favorites to date. So much knowledge
Folks, don't take your geopolitics from guys in special operations. Just because you were a seal does not mean you know the first thing about geopolitics. Claiming that a seal knows about geopolitics because they were a Seal is like saying my garbage man knows about environmental policy because he's a garbage man.
This has to be one of my top three favorite episodes, great info.
Great guest, Thanks
Awesome episode Andy, top quality content!
You need to bring Mr. Fox on again! Great podcast.
I second the suggestion that Darryl Cooper from the Martyr Made podcast should be on. He has a very different view of this war and what led to it. It would definitely generate so.e good discussion and offset some of the bias in this conversation.
One of your most interesting episodes. Great Job Andy.
He was a good quest. I was surprised how little he knew of Putin. And how he neglected the NATO/USSR dynamic.
Simply SUPERB! Excellent and very informative!
Great episode! Love the detail and knowledge shared
Quite a bit of math being solved without Glover
Great episode
Curtis seems to genuinely believe what he’s saying, though he is a bit biased in the neoconservative direction.
It is good to see what the sober neocons think, regardless of the factual inaccuracies.
I wonder what percentage of our defense budget is lost to fraud.
Check documents in Biden's garage or Mar largo vault.
very good episode
Andy…you da man. Look forward to this one.
Greatest talk about the war in Ukraine.
Way better podcasts covering the subject are out there
Great idea and important topic
I’m 17 minutes in, can we have him back?
A couple points: the Russian military is on track to have about a million men under arms within the next decade. That cannot be accounted for by conscription alone. We don't like to entertain the idea in the west but people ARE volunteering. And military manufacturing is about the only thing the Russians have serious infrastructure and experience for, they're currently building artillery shells and guns and tanks at a faster rate than the US and Europe combined.
Because, if they were short on people, lost all the best troops, had no tanks and ammo left, and were incompetent at every level, how is it that the counteroffensive failed, almost no territory has been retaken, and Ukraine keeps losing stronghold cities? Even with Western tanks, artillery, missiles, drones, ISR, leadership consulting, etc? I like this guy, he is clearly very knowledgeable about things. But theres a lot of points in this talk that echo gov talking points that on their face do not add up.
I'm a bit of a history and geopolitics nerd and I can say that he definitely knows his Russian history. The names and dates he mentioned are accurate. However his perspective of the war is so biased to one side. Even Sky News and the New York Times which are 100% pro-Ukraine have indicated how close the Ukrainian military is to collapse. The Russians are using a tried and tested tactic called attrition. They're slowly grinding down the UAF and once the lines collapse they'll start taking more territory. And you're right, the Russian military industrial complex is producing a lot.
This is a fantastic episode!
Someone should edit out the part where Andy talks
Awesome chat!
When he said he was a Pisces and he liked walks on the beach I thought he was joking... boy did I feel bad when I realized he was serious. I doubt very many single women watch this podcast but maybe Mr. Fox will find a little Vixen that likes to walk on the beach too.
As usual, thanks for bringing on guests with real information vs narratives (and yes, that is a little shot at Peter Zeihan). I always feel like that works in the correct direction.
Andy, this guest was awesome. Please reach out to PW Singer, Sean McFate in the future.
The difference between Afghanistan and Ukraine are many. We invaded Afghanistan. We were the occupiers. Ukraine wants to move west politically and culturally. Afghanistan (and Pakistan) never did. They wanted to move toward Mecca.
I’m sure it crossed many people’s mind that this guy is/was CIA. Doesn’t make him wrong. Putin and his regime are not our friends. Ukraine should have had F16’s a year ago.
What pilots? What technical support on the ground? What airports?
That was outstanding, good job gentlemen!
Andy, I highly recommend you watch/listen to the Tucker/Putin interview. Just plan two hours of your daily 'free' time to check it out. I've watched it twice. The first time I took over four hours as I would pause and go research Putin's answers as best I could. The second time nearly straight through. An excellent interview. I have also watched many of Tucker's post interview posts. Again very enlightening.
Awesome episode!! I learned so much.
Re: the Polish I had a trainer who was from Poland. She was tough. She was able to combine positive encouragement with a good degree of Eastern European cruelty.
I think the surface to air missile they are talking about is called the Strela
I do wonder at how the thought lines may or may not change now that UAF has the green light to hit RUAF assets in a "limited" portion of Russia with EU/US long range equipt. The equipt being used in Ukraine now, seems to be changing the game for everyone.
1:53:00- 1:53:40 this is not accurate commentary from the guest. News article in my local paper yesterday major headline that our local steel company just got a government contract to pump 100,000 artillery shells a year for however long to specifically send to Ukraine. So this isn’t obsolete inventory we are sending
The claim is that the government has a bunch of replacements, new designs and tech or updated, they are bringing in. This is actually where the big problem of our military supply is.
We do not even have enough factories and plants to produce the old stuff in the needed quantities and we need to produce enough of the old at the same time as building facilities to manufacture the new tech at scale.
This is why all the delivery dates are in several years for anything that is not already stockpiled. We also have to supply everyone that already sent stuff to Ukraine with replacements also as that was part of the deal. Their policies and lack of forward thinking have really created a cluster and Ukraine is currently paying for it.
Great show!
This was an amazing episode and was very informative, but I have a question regarding who in NATO is ready to go to war and the answer being Poland @1.53.59. Now Turkey has been involved in a conflict in Syria against US trained YPG/PKK. In Iraq against the PKK. It was involved in stopping Russian proxy forces in Libya protecting the UN backed Government of National Accord, it was involved in training and supporting Azerbaijan to defeat Armenia in a 44 day war to liberate 30 years of occupation. It even supported Qatar when the Saudis and other Gulf allies threatened it with war. This all happened in the past decade and if Turkey is not ready for war now, then I would really like to see what would happen if it was.
man bring this guy back for more
Amazing discussion fellas
Andy Stumpf being completely ignorant of the lend-lease program is insane lol.
I don’t think more territory is Russia’s actual national strategy.
It is not, however his point about the defensible land features does reflect why Russia believes it is important be be on good terms with those countries in the areas. Which from their view it is a risk to have American troops in those countries, and the risk is greater the closer from those points they are to the Russian border.
But keeping a warm water port is
You should have Scott Horton on to give the non-US Government employee edition of this topic.
Haha I thought I was the only one to have picked up on that.
Andy, I would love for you to find a guy (or gal) of this caliper with in the same level of knowledge for China that Curtis has for Russia. And then at the very least I would want to know what this person thinks about what I'm hearing where China is buying up farmland adjacent to US military bases as well as Chinese nationals in the United States buying our guns and training with them.
Great, great . . . Podcast . . .
Great guest! 👍
Interesting dude! That 3 hrs felt like 15 min.
I would definitely read that.
Thank you Sirs! Shared.
Finally!! Someone discusses the fact that Ukraine could turn on us. Been thinking about that for a while now.
Mernin ☕️
Midnight 👋🏻
😂