Why we held this stock to bankruptcy
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- Опубликовано: 16 мар 2024
- Invitae went bankrupt, and we lost everything. Well, not *everything*. But, we learned some valuable lessons we'll apply going forward. Today's video touches on our tech stock investing methodology, why we purchased NVTA stock in the first place, how we limited our losses, and what we'll do going forward to avoid another situation like this one.
Why are we talking about our biggest loser? Well, honesty and integrity are important to us here at Nanalyze. We can't bring up our massive NVIDIA gains without also recognizing some bumps in the road. We're also constantly learning, and we're going to use this unfortunate circumstance as a learning experience.
RESEARCH PIECES USED IN THIS VIDEO:
1. Falling Out of Love With Invitae Stock
www.nanalyze.com/2023/03/fall...
2. Here’s Why Invitae Stock Can’t Stop Falling
www.nanalyze.com/2022/05/why-...
3. Myriad Genetics Stock vs. Invitae Stock
www.nanalyze.com/2021/11/myri...
4. A Simple Valuation Ratio for Disruptive Tech Stocks
www.nanalyze.com/2021/06/simp...
CHAPTERS:
00:08 Newbie mistakes in investing
01:07 When to sell tech stocks
01:54 Our portfolio
03:12 Invitae
05:14 The writing on the wall
06:07 When we bought NVTA stock
08:25 Things start to go south
09:30 Why Invitae went bankrupt
12:04 What we learned
ABOUT US:
This video is brought to you by Nanalyze, a media and research firm founded by finance professionals with decades of experience. We share insights about #DisruptiveTechnology #stocks in a language that is future-proof and easy to understand.
Read all the Nanalyze Premium articles you'd like for free! Sign up for a 30-day trial of our monthly subscription with no strings attached: www.nanalyze.com/become-a-nan...
DISCLAIMER: Our content is intended to be used and must be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment based on your own personal circumstances. You should take independent financial advice from a professional in connection with, along with independently researching and verifying, any information contained within our RUclips videos or on our website, whether for the purpose of making an investment or otherwise.
#invitae $NVTA
#nvtastock
#nvta
#bankrupt
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Hello Joe ,
I also lost 12 K on NVTA .
Looking at my 32 K gain on Cava to make myself feel better 😂
Thanks for the article .
Very good points
I notice now Cathy is buying more
Personalis to r place it
I recently bought 6,000 shares of Soundhound at 1.6 dollars & sold 4,000 of those shares at 6.5 dollars
So my remaining 2,000 shares are free twice over
Hey Doug. Glad to hear you're making money in the markets!
Great video ! Finally a channel that admits a mistake . Succes lies in one's ability to learn from mistakes!
Thank you
Thank you! We always keep the receipts for every stock we buy so post mortems are very easy to conduct.
Nice one. Lots of nuggets in this vid to learn from. Especially like, and agree with, your take of not setting up a stop loss for a stock you just purchased. Cheers
Thank you! Yes, the stop loss kind of goes against the entire purpose of investing. That said, you could use a trailing stop if you were looking to trim a position. When exiting a position we typically use reverse dollar cost averaging.
Excellent content. Analyzing mistakes and learning from them is extremely valuable. It also shows how important it is to log your reasoning over time.
Some never admit to making a mistake in the first place and simply blame everything else. Usually the ones who are calling others buffoons for making a mistake.
That's a very good point! We've had one second coming of Nostradamus come by here and chastise us for making this mistake. We asked what that person would have done differently and they refused to answer the question. That pretty much said it all.
Thank you for sharing. Up and to the right isn't assured. Sometimes we win.....other times we don't. The real take away is to figure out how to learn from it. Cheers to you all & much future growth. Great channel!
Well put. Thank you for the kind words!
I really appreciate the look back on a stock you missed on to educate people what to look for. Thank you!
We're getting lots of good feedback on this so we're really glad we did this exercise. Thank you you for the feedback!
I appreciate you. I need your advice and reason in my ear everyday so I stay on track. Made some big mistakes last year. Your guidance is very helpful
Thank you so much for the kind words. We appreciate you too!
Thanks for sharing this lesson. Yes, it's very difficult knowing when to exit a stock
You're most welcome.
Thanks for details on the methods! Like Buffet, I'll write covered calls. When pullbacks happen, I tend to buy them back around 50% of max profit, then reinvest the premium into the stock!
You are most welcome! We touched on the covered call method briefly in our piece on JEPI. (ruclips.net/video/nd9AmdTd0g0/видео.html) For growth stocks, you risk capping your upside, but as you know it works better with lower volatility stocks. Certainly best left to people with time to really dig into the strategy. Options can be tricky!
Thank you for this video. I only hold on “ speculative “ stock. Everything else is in my dividend growth portfolio. Buying is easy, knowing when I’ve bought enough and when to sell is hard. Setting limits at a percentage of my portfolio makes the buying part much more manageable. Let’s be real here, at 1000% realized gain I am not going to be life changing wealthy so why would I risk more than around 1 or 2% of my total. Yes this limits my realized gain potential but it also limits my possible loss. As far as selling it will be constant reviewing and based on the business performance. This makes a lot of sense.
Thank you for the feedback. We also take a similar approach as you - around 16% invested in a tech portfolio and 60% invested in DGI stocks. Sleeping well at night is underrated.
Appreciate the accountability "telling on yourself", rather than burying the whole mess and seeking to distance or reframe the investment. Excellent reflections and ontinued success.
Thank you for the kind words! No investor is perfect, and even the best can still learn something from their mistakes. At the end of the day, things could have been worse. We're glad to have a position size rule for this reason! -Wyatt C.
Brilliant video. I love how you specify the red flag approach to investing. This would have served me well avoiding the risky sectors and risky companies.
It works quite well to avoid land mines. Well, most the time ;)
Thanks for the transparency. I would not have added to a down position if management was giving inconsistent guidance that would have been a yellow flag for me. I think holding on an original thesis is fine, but If management can’t be trusted it’s not time to double down until they can show more than just growing top line.
Really good point!
Smart decision to show how to search the site while talking about it. Video guy needs a raise 😂
Thank yo for the feedback. He's doing a really solid job, agree! Raises are in order if we can keep scaling this business. Joe P.
Nice content and so very true. Could you please do a content on Ginkgo Bioworks - DNA?
Ask and ye shall receive: ruclips.net/video/7-cb8SO-d6c/видео.html
I've had a few of those stocks. I definitely keep my gambles small on stocks like this.
We try not to think of gambling when we tie money up in any stock :) Good that you are monitoring your capital at risk.
thanks! I was in the same boat :(
A lot of people were, including ARK Invest. It was a tough call.
Really feeling the same with SEDG. Everyday is news that it's going down further with no bottom at sight. Made a big investment there, with reasonable price targets (and the stocks were relatively cheap to start with), now down 70-80% due to "macro-economic headwinds", and am scratching my head questioning my cost basis.
Tech stocks are extremely volatile, and this is a side effect of investing in volatile stocks. When Amazon dropped 90%, people were thinking the same thing. When Invitae dropped 90%, they were also thinking the same thing.
Avoiding bankruptcy seems to be a focal point in tough times. If SEDG management is buying back shares then they must feel comfortable with their cash position. Or, they totally miscalculated. Predicting which is impossible so we do the best we can with the facts we know!
I've made mistakes myself and I think looking for exposure to a specific sector or business model is a mistake. Investing within your circle of competence is obviously important but wanting exposure to any specific thing is the cart leading the horse. What I've learned is that speculative stocks that meet my criteria of being within my circle of competence, having frugal management along with the potential for significant growth while having quality margins and with a perceived margin of safety in valuation are very few and far between. Base Carbon is one I'm bullish on now.
We would never touch anything as small as Base Carbon. As for only investing in someone's circle of competence, that would significantly limit everyone's ability to invest as most people are highly specialized and you'll never truly understand a product or service, even as a user. It's best to focus on revenue growth and have a living methodology that you apply consistently across all tech stocks.
Thoughts on Sound hound?
It's very hyped right now, something we covered in our recent piece on AI hype: ruclips.net/video/CK8u0wytjEQ/видео.html
I sold all my shares at a profit. Get out if your ahead.
Your a clown
@karend4406 lays out some valuable criticisms of someone on this thread - we're not sure who - who he believes works in a circus. This is the sort of quality banter people have come to expect here at Nanalyze.
We'll now see how much the Invitae dataset is worth to a potential buyer. Cathie was of the understanding Invitae would be acquired because of their data and tech, which obviously didn't happen, but it will be interesting to see a value put on it.
Good point. We shall see.
Good stuff. Sitting on $TCRT...no fun.
We aren't familiar with them, but a helpful rule is not to invest in a company before they have meaningful revenues.
I still have 5000 NVTA share.. not sure what to do with it? Can anybody suggest some steps?
We cannot help you as we exited right before they formally declared bankruptcy. Our understanding is that they still trade with a "Q" appended to the ticker.
The mentality I struggle with is when a company has risen enough that I no longer want to buy it at that price, I feel like I should be selling it. I am very good at DCAing in and if a company I like drops in price with no material difference I am ecstatic to be able to buy more. I have a similar linear exit strategy (reverse DCAing you could call it).. but the psychology of simply holding when I think it's surpassed a +EV eval is confusing to me. I am always drawn to try to reallocate capital to better opportunities, but this doesn't allow much in the way of longterm investments or 'letting our winners ride'. Exit strategy is tough.
I agree. Like Nvidia. When I bought at $100 and it quickly went to $300 it is very hard to keep buying more...you just think that you should sell, which I did. I made $ but could have made 3x as much if I'd held longer or kept buying. I'm a sucker for "DCA'ing" into stocks that are dropping, but not buying more shares of companies that are doing well when they get way more expensive than what I originally paid. Sometimes that works out...like Palantir. Other times like NVTA it is a disaster.
Spot on. Exit strategy is extremely tough. That's why setting objective rules makes the most sense. Paper gains area always just paper gains. You only capture alpha when you sell. In order to add to winners it's important to have a valuation target, not a cost basis or chase price target. Monitoring the valuation of a company over time keeps you from overpaying when you're adding to winners or buying on "dips."
I had the same problem , but i learned to look at fundamentals at that point . PE ratio , fwd PE , cash flow and if i want to hold it a long time i like a dividend aswell
@Bham67 this is exactly the same psychological pathology I have with investing, and incidentally occurred with the same 2 stocks you mentioned. I bought palantir at a $7 average and sold it for a $16 average. I regret that not just because it's higher now, but because there was no reason to sell. I just sold because it rose quickly and I didn't want to buy more. It was a very clear hold.
@@Nanalyze I agree. At first, I thought some of these rigid rules were a bit too strong, but I now see how they have great preventative and executive value.
I sell too early, I sacrifice a win on a 10% jump... then the thing goes up 120% and I'm standing there with my 500 dollars profit lol
Oh boy... ;)
I have 245 shares of NTLA at $34 average since 2021. It went up $200 but i didn’t sell them, now I’m still holding, don’t know what to do!!
If your thesis hasn't changed then not much to do. We did cover a lot of our cost basis on the gene editing hype surge because it was so clearly hype. It's rare we trim on hype but in that case we thought it was merited because all gene editing stocks exhibited the same behavior.
gene stocks are dead bro
@@rochester3 Seriously? We didn't get the memo. Just exited everything bro.
If you can, sell covered calls against some of them or all if you're ok with getting rid of them
$plur and $bngo for me 😢 No one to Blame but ME .....
Accepting responsibility when making investment choices is a huge sign of maturity as an investor. You make better decisions that way for sure.
Wow! I didn't know that company got hit so hard. Interesting.
It would make for a great business school case study.
I knew it was a long-term play with Plug Power, but it's difficult to look as such a negative value in my portfolio.
We've always remained firmly convinced hydrogen isn't economically viable. (ruclips.net/video/xmW4q8CJku4/видео.html) But don't sweat it! It's not over until the overweight lady with a myriad of weight-related problems belts forth a tune. ;)
@@Nanalyze I just wish I saw your video 2.5 years ago when I bought in 🥲 now I'm just hoping for either a Bible level miracle, for the fat lady at least squeal for a second before giving out entirely, or for a good year to take advantage of my losses on that position.
I'm doing the same with BNGO. It's so tempting to double down lol.
A lot of people have been asking us about BNGO but they have become too small to be on our radar. We last looked at them here: ruclips.net/video/Q8eH6VWDGVo/видео.html
Genomics is dead bro
@@rochester3 (Makes immediate call to broker to liquidate everything related to genomics.)
@@Nanalyze 2 years late ⏰
@@Nanalyze AI is the new shiny toy
❤
Glad you're enjoying our content!
I’ve sold at 2-4$ but very sad too see nvta bankruptcy wonder who will end buying all their data. Are you guys still bullish on pacb
Yes we are still following PACB. We're probably due for an update but our last piece is here: www.nanalyze.com/2023/05/buy-pacific-biosciences-stock-now/
@@Nanalyze thx for the article great read
We have over 2,400 articles of research, many of which are used to produce our videos :)
That’s how I have $CRGE went bankrupt but I’ll still buy more
Never understood the attraction to businesses that have gone bust but it appears to be a thing these days.
I prefer to examine the entrails of a pigeon for guidance.
Our on-staff Romanian fortune teller swears by this method.
I lost so much on NIO
Don't worry man. We've all been there. We did a few really interesting videos on NIO if you're interested. We avoid Chinese VIE structures like the plague, but would consider BYD because it trades as an H share. Remember, it's only over when the BBW sings.
Now you are making me think twice about DNA....I hope it is not another NVTA!
Seems like with these things you only find out when its too late
fax 📠
Is that some sort of new crypto token?
@@Nanalyze This is what the cool kids are saying instead of "facts" these days 👴
@@LegaliseFinland (Scribbles new entry in notebook.) Fax.
I remember these! haha
"Victory has a hundred fathers, but defeat is an orphan." Joe, I have to give you credit for being man enough to claim the child was yours.😂 Like a proud parent, I like to visit my "children" several times a day when the markets are on a positive streak. When the markets are down, not so much... not until they learn to straighten up their bad behaviors.🤣
That's a great saying!
I sympathize with your loss. I made a 100% loss on my 10$ investment in NVTAQ
:( We can share a couple bowls of loudmouth soup and lick our wounds. We all learned something though and now we're better investors as a result! Turning that frown upside down. :)