During my two decades of experience with betting, I have been able to verify that we are at the moment where the greatest possibilities of learning to bet in a responsible and healthy way is now. Betting education is in my view the best prevention tool against pathological gambling. Those who like you share their educational knowledge from their honesty, sincerity and transparency are the best references so that novice bettors do not fall into the dangers and dramatic consequences of the reality of sports betting and the worst of false prophets that lead them to the perdition. I have always thought that the best education in betting is to teach newcomers people that in order to enjoy betting the main thing is knowing how to lose, winning is likely within the reach of a select few but the vital thing is to perceive the risks that maintain your behavior with betting within the responsibility of being an addictive but exciting reality. You are one of those wise advisers. Nice job
Thank you. I appreciate the time you took to make that eloquent point. More sustainable sports bettors help everyone. The recreational bettors who learn; the sharp bettors who have greater market liquidity; the operators who have a market base with a bankroll that has time to replenish; the states who will not be encouraging problem gamblers. It's a ripple effect.
@@CaptainJackAndrews Unfortunately the business model is focused in another direction. The European paradigm will invade you, and it's already doing so from what I see on Twitter. Operators will continue to close the accounts of advanced bettors because it's the most effective way they've found to manage risk, and all with state approval. It's amazing that this model has evolved so much and is considered legal in almost every jurisdiction, when that principle goes against the philosophy they promote with "responsible gambling". How dare they discriminate against those with the best responsible behavior? I know it's a long debate, I know the problem, in some European states it affects more than others but the discrimination on "winners" are common to all, it has never been achieved at a national level to claim this immorality by uniting the punters because the industry is powerful and the punters are very individualistic and selfish, although in Spain for example we have managed to win lawsuits in the courts for these abusive limitations despite the fact that the industry continues to do what it wants y el estado ignorando las resoluciones judiciales. I believe that if there is no union at an international level to give strength to the issue with some kind of media campaign it will not be possible to reverse this issue and expose the whole corrupt system that has worked over the last few years. It would be an opportunity to change things or to awaken the interest of some company that wants to stand out from the rest. I am aware that this is a question of business model and strategy companies. In this sense, the exchange betting on Betfair will fit you like a glove when you have it well developed in the USA, it's the best paradigm fair and equilibrity. Anyway, greetings and I hope you understand me despite my limitations with language and translation. Kind regards
I can't tell you how much I appreciate your vids and advice. Thanks for all your doing to school someone like me into this world. Iv been taking notes and plan on getting some of the books you talk about. Knowledge is key, and you sir are a fountain of it lol Thanks again!
Thank you Captain Jack. I aspire to be a professional sports better and I know that my success will come largely from all this content that you are sharing. God bless you!
Excellent concepts for a newbie. Five great tips. Making it easier allows one to focus on some more productive elements when it comes to handicapping. As an aside, I realized the value of scaping and have opted for a service which I can use for my betting season. As I bet on the NFL and NHL, I enroll in a service from September to June, scraping player stats, team stats and injuries on a weekly basis. Hopefully if the formats change on the various sites, my scraper will still collect the data; however I would need to modify the transformation of the data . They offer a free version; however I opted for the paid service as it includes the ability to schedule the scraper.
It is very simple to test for opening and closing odds predictive accuracy relative to outcome. It is also easy to perform a bias test simulating variable stakes betting on opening and closing prices. All closing prices are similar on predictive accuracy on average as of course they do not close invariably in an arbitrage state and all bookmakers no matter their model reach a consensus. I have analysed this data for 500+ bookmakers. One thing I can assure you is that whether it is basketball or biathlon the Pinnacle closing line is tops. One thing I can also assure you is that BetCris are not more predictive or less biased than them in any area. Opening odds is another story and people would be surprised at the pockets of expertise that exist in various sports around the globe. One intriguing little observation is that when I looked at data for MLB 2017-2019 there was quite a strong bias for Bookmaker.eu against the under and the dog. In fact you would have done OK blindly backing unders and the dog. These kind of biases are symptomatic or recreational bookmaking more than market maker behaviour.
Thanks, Matthew. The paradox of course is that you can likely bet the farm against closing odds relative to the peanuts you'll be permitted against the opening odds. The art is being able to find the sweet spot where you can bet into a soft market with enough stake before it tends towards efficiency.
@@CaptainJackAndrews Fortunately this is also easy to test for in average terms. Take any large scale arbitrage monitoring service and dive in to their data. You can rank bookmakers by how they perform in arbitrage situations against each other at any point in the lifecycle of the market. You can also observe at what point the deviation between the odds and the closing line tends to zero on average and track when you are more or less likely to still be able to beat the closing line. You can also track volumes available on odds broker services, exchanges and Pinnacle's API. You can even programme a bot to ask for max bet size on sites that offer it at various times before kick off. The only thing that prevents people from gaining clarity is the effort required. For the best gamblers they can intuit the sweet spots but for the data scientists out there they can just get the answers with what is publicly available. Often those answers will only be "on average" which has its own dangers but they can often help you rule out huge swathes of time when you could be doing other things or monitoring other bookmakers.
thank you so much for all this information, its hard to find honest people that shared good information about betting, im here because of spanky. thank you! regards from Mexico.
Jack, do sites like bovada, bookmaker, betonline, nitrogen, do they only look at your IP address or do they go deeper? Bovada seems to know if youre using a vpn somehow from what i hear. No experience with the others.
I don't know, they've never been upfront about their geolocation strategies. It's not hard to look deeper than just IP address, although with most of those sites they don't have incentive to. As long as they have plausible deniability that they took the necessary steps to keep out traffic from illegal markets, they pass the letter of their regulations.
During my two decades of experience with betting, I have been able to verify that we are at the moment where the greatest possibilities of learning to bet in a responsible and healthy way is now.
Betting education is in my view the best prevention tool against pathological gambling.
Those who like you share their educational knowledge from their honesty, sincerity and transparency are the best references so that novice bettors do not fall into the dangers and dramatic consequences of the reality of sports betting and the worst of false prophets that lead them to the perdition.
I have always thought that the best education in betting is to teach newcomers people that in order to enjoy betting the main thing is knowing how to lose, winning is likely within the reach of a select few but the vital thing is to perceive the risks that maintain your behavior with betting within the responsibility of being an addictive but exciting reality.
You are one of those wise advisers. Nice job
Thank you. I appreciate the time you took to make that eloquent point. More sustainable sports bettors help everyone. The recreational bettors who learn; the sharp bettors who have greater market liquidity; the operators who have a market base with a bankroll that has time to replenish; the states who will not be encouraging problem gamblers. It's a ripple effect.
@@CaptainJackAndrews Unfortunately the business model is focused in another direction. The European paradigm will invade you, and it's already doing so from what I see on Twitter. Operators will continue to close the accounts of advanced bettors because it's the most effective way they've found to manage risk, and all with state approval. It's amazing that this model has evolved so much and is considered legal in almost every jurisdiction, when that principle goes against the philosophy they promote with "responsible gambling". How dare they discriminate against those with the best responsible behavior? I know it's a long debate, I know the problem, in some European states it affects more than others but the discrimination on "winners" are common to all, it has never been achieved at a national level to claim this immorality by uniting the punters because the industry is powerful and the punters are very individualistic and selfish, although in Spain for example we have managed to win lawsuits in the courts for these abusive limitations despite the fact that the industry continues to do what it wants y el estado ignorando las resoluciones judiciales. I believe that if there is no union at an international level to give strength to the issue with some kind of media campaign it will not be possible to reverse this issue and expose the whole corrupt system that has worked over the last few years. It would be an opportunity to change things or to awaken the interest of some company that wants to stand out from the rest. I am aware that this is a question of business model and strategy companies. In this sense, the exchange betting on Betfair will fit you like a glove when you have it well developed in the USA, it's the best paradigm fair and equilibrity.
Anyway, greetings and I hope you understand me despite my limitations with language and translation.
Kind regards
I can't tell you how much I appreciate your vids and advice. Thanks for all your doing to school someone like me into this world. Iv been taking notes and plan on getting some of the books you talk about. Knowledge is key, and you sir are a fountain of it lol Thanks again!
Same here. Captain Jack is the best
Thank you Captain Jack. I aspire to be a professional sports better and I know that my success will come largely from all this content that you are sharing. God bless you!
Thankyou from the rookies out here looking to learn.
Glad to help
Excellent concepts for a newbie. Five great tips. Making it easier allows one to focus on some more productive elements when it comes to handicapping. As an aside, I realized the value of scaping and have opted for a service which I can use for my betting season. As I bet on the NFL and NHL, I enroll in a service from September to June, scraping player stats, team stats and injuries on a weekly basis. Hopefully if the formats change on the various sites, my scraper will still collect the data; however I would need to modify the transformation of the data . They offer a free version; however I opted for the paid service as it includes the ability to schedule the scraper.
Which service?
Great info Jack, thanks for sharing. I'm at least 5% less stupid after watching this.
I was aiming for a 3% reduction, so I'm glad to hear we've exceeded it!
😂
Great content as always.
Jack how much line adjustment do you make for a top scorer like Embiid that scores over 30 pts. a game obviously in NBA.
It is very simple to test for opening and closing odds predictive accuracy relative to outcome. It is also easy to perform a bias test simulating variable stakes betting on opening and closing prices. All closing prices are similar on predictive accuracy on average as of course they do not close invariably in an arbitrage state and all bookmakers no matter their model reach a consensus. I have analysed this data for 500+ bookmakers. One thing I can assure you is that whether it is basketball or biathlon the Pinnacle closing line is tops. One thing I can also assure you is that BetCris are not more predictive or less biased than them in any area. Opening odds is another story and people would be surprised at the pockets of expertise that exist in various sports around the globe. One intriguing little observation is that when I looked at data for MLB 2017-2019 there was quite a strong bias for Bookmaker.eu against the under and the dog. In fact you would have done OK blindly backing unders and the dog. These kind of biases are symptomatic or recreational bookmaking more than market maker behaviour.
Thanks, Matthew. The paradox of course is that you can likely bet the farm against closing odds relative to the peanuts you'll be permitted against the opening odds. The art is being able to find the sweet spot where you can bet into a soft market with enough stake before it tends towards efficiency.
@@CaptainJackAndrews Fortunately this is also easy to test for in average terms. Take any large scale arbitrage monitoring service and dive in to their data. You can rank bookmakers by how they perform in arbitrage situations against each other at any point in the lifecycle of the market. You can also observe at what point the deviation between the odds and the closing line tends to zero on average and track when you are more or less likely to still be able to beat the closing line. You can also track volumes available on odds broker services, exchanges and Pinnacle's API. You can even programme a bot to ask for max bet size on sites that offer it at various times before kick off. The only thing that prevents people from gaining clarity is the effort required. For the best gamblers they can intuit the sweet spots but for the data scientists out there they can just get the answers with what is publicly available. Often those answers will only be "on average" which has its own dangers but they can often help you rule out huge swathes of time when you could be doing other things or monitoring other bookmakers.
Thanks for your videos, you seem very knowledgable.
I was wondering do you have to pay income tax on betting winnings same as for poker? thanks
Yes, all gambling income is taxable in the US no matter which form of gambling it is derived from.
thank you so much for all this information, its hard to find honest people that shared good information about betting, im here because of spanky.
thank you! regards from Mexico.
Jack, do sites like bovada, bookmaker, betonline, nitrogen, do they only look at your IP address or do they go deeper? Bovada seems to know if youre using a vpn somehow from what i hear. No experience with the others.
I don't know, they've never been upfront about their geolocation strategies. It's not hard to look deeper than just IP address, although with most of those sites they don't have incentive to. As long as they have plausible deniability that they took the necessary steps to keep out traffic from illegal markets, they pass the letter of their regulations.
WOW!
How much can you say... 📍 *_$500 Strategy here_* 💰