Climate Change or Overshoot? The Existential Question - by Prof. Bill Rees with Q&A
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- Опубликовано: 8 ноя 2021
- Professor Emeritus Bill Rees examines the idea that climate change is a society-wide misdiagnosis of the problem faced by humans in an ever shrinking ecosphere. This video contains the discussion that took place after the presentation.
It's about time Overshoot got a big headline. This remarkable concept is now forty years old. William Catton published Overshoot in 1981. And here we sit, refusing to participate in our own rescue.
And as you should know, it's because we have to fight against our biology to change our behavior on top of the cultural narrative.
Hi everyone and thank you for your comments. We are aware that the birds in the background make for 'challenging' listening. The truth is, we were much too polite to ask Professor Rees to remove his beloved pets from the house as we were recording. Given all of your feedback here however, I think in future we will do that. We have chosen to leave the video up nonetheless as we feel that the messages contained within are worth sharing, despite the background noise - but your comments have been noted and in future we promise, no birds! In the meantime have a look at our latest webinar 'The Future of Food and Energy with Dr. Mike Joy ruclips.net/video/iburYeY0Rnc/видео.html
He doesnt need to remove the birds, per se. But work with him to adjust the gain and sensitivy of the mic - so it doesnt hear the bird squacks. 5 minutes of pre-show audio check would have prevented the issue
His budgie might have been translating... :)
Not to worry, there will only be the human species left on a dying planet shortly.
@@MichaelKean lol.
THIS IS WHAT I'VE BEEN SAYING FOR DECADES AND THAT THE CLIMATE HOAX IS A TYPICAL DIVERSION, TO DISUADE ANY KIND OF HOLISITC THINKING, CONCERNING OVER POPULATION WHICH IS THE BIGGEST PROBLEM AND CONTRIBUTOR TO THE OVER ALL DEGRADATION OF THE PLANET'S ENVIRONMENT IN GENERAL
The birds are a feature not a glitch❤️
Thank you for pointing out the obvious !
I am so glad I found my tribe at last .
The voices of the birds in the background are a subtle reference to the wonder and fragility of life on the planet.
I can hear you. Very important message. Thank you.
Whose idea was it to mic up the birdcage?
We felt they had a valuable contribution to make!
@@ntclimateforumteam8447 almost two years of zoom meets with reedy mics and fuzzy cams has worn thin and is tiresome to senses when we should focus on topics. Please up your game.
@@jonathanedwardgibson A little self righteous for someone who just talks about the problem and isn't actually making any personal sacrifices, futile though they may be. Talking, enumerating, codifying .... is not doing.
I'm off the grid. I don't own an internal combustion engine. I've foresaken flight. Talk down to someone else you useless piece of drek.
I couldn't, my ADHD wouldn't let me. It's the entire time😭
@@ntclimateforumteam8447 - well, think again because it doesn’t.
Can you look up Peter Joseph and read his book please? He brilliantly describes the solution to the infinite growth paradigm that is causing this overshoot. The book is called "The New Human Rights Movement: Reinventing the Economy to End Oppression". It's unfortnately relatively unknown within academic circles. Peter is also deeply concerned about the various cycles we are overrunning, like topsoil/nitrogen/phosphorus/etc and agrees with you that climate change is really one of the least of our worries.
The presentation of the disconnect between economic policy and the limits to continued growth that should be imposed when the environment is part of the equation is so important and I thank you for bringing the concept front and center. As I you may have understood from my post yesterday, II am skeptical that such a connection will be made before it is too late to matter.
sad information.......but sometimes the truth really hurts
I think a takeaway here is that renewable energy technology is necessary, but not sufficient to safely halt climate change by itself. There is no chance of global cooperation on climate, consumption, or population growth. 50 years from now when the population is pushing 16 billion will we see mass migration as coastal cities are flooding? Homes without power or heat because we didn't prepare a renewable grid for when we start running out of fossil fuels? Massive extinction of plant and animal species, most of which we never got to study for scientific advances or medical breakthroughs? Global famine, homelessness, unrest, and war over the ever scarcer resources? If we chose to manage our own consumption of finite resources we could do it in a respectful way that preserves the dignity of our fellow humans. If we fail to choose - mother nature will do it for us in a merciless, dystopian fashion.
Comment section reminds me of a Portlandia episode. We put birds on things. On one hand, people are upset about the state of the world, and on the other they want those birds to STFU lololol
Very well thought out very well presented for me to understand (not easy) with sparks of genius thank you💜
Save Our Planet Now
This discussion reminds me of Asimov's Foundation trilogy. A fall of the centralized civilization anticipated by having mastered the mathematics of earth's climate/weather and applying them to human social behavior on a large scale, a return to smaller decentralized communities, an effort to document all accumulated knowledge to be employed in the far future to bring back technology in a decentralized way (decentralized power production).
I seldom hear of people talking about Asimov's Foundation series. (it is not just a trilogy but have branching minor novels pre and post foundation).
You can actually see it play out in human history how Empires are born and how they degenerate and break apart.
@@pulsar22 I originally read the Foundation trilogy as a kid and the robot trilogy as a young adult Then later I discovered Asimov tied the two collections into one giant series by writing several more books in the late 80s that wove the two separate trilogies into one seemless series.
From Chicago...all households are supplied with two large containers for garbage...two flats have four....WHY SO MUCH WASTE
As Jarred Diamond mused rhetorically in his book “Collapse” what was the person who chopped down the last tree on Easter Island …thinking. What we have always known is now before us. So what will the last people on earth be thinking? It doesn’t matter. Its a long way off and it will just be a normal state of affairs to them.
It may not be threat in your country; but it's really causing havoc in our lives here in the Philippines...
It's very much like everyone born in the last 200 years has been born into a crime family. We're all eco-criminals; it's all we've ever known. Rapid growth and change is normal for us. And just like Michael Corleone, we long to be different, to be better than that. But in the end he accepts his place in the world and becomes as vicious as his father before him. Michael murders his enemies and in our reality a lot people buy Hummers and jet skis, eat beef, use lots of single use packaging, etc. We're all Michael Corleone, murdering the planet for our own comforts.
Nice planet you got there. It'd be a shame if somethin' happened to it.
You need to stay away from children with a statement like that, why do you think blaming every single human and making disgusting quotes saying that all humans are born in a crime family?
Who an earth do you think you are?
People should blame are governments, dictators and corporations.
@@ruairievans Born into this.
Unfortunately, the surpluses of this "capitalism" require huge volumes of waste be generated to produce them, even if only by the cumbersome social apparatus of nations. Production and efficiency are different things. A more productive method can be less efficient. There's a lot of that. And as Mr. Rees et al have also mentioned, efficiency isn't tantamount to conservation. I'm glad to see it being discussed at last.
If the total melting of the arctic ice cap, already down by 75% over the past 40 years according to Dr. Francis, is a predictor of total climate collapse within the next 8 years, by 2030. Kudos to bill Rees! HSS RIP. Stress R Us
I learned about overshoot in my 10th grade biology class, in 1971....only it was in reference to caribou, not human beings. The exponential growth curve humanity was on was well understood in the late 60's. Does Anybody remember the bestseller "future shock"?
This is the single most accurate presentation on our survival that I have ever seen, other than my own book, "Stress R Us". Corporate greed will never allow it! Peace, out.
is it possible to get a copy of the powerpoint presentation?
what are you're thoughts about the Venus project from Jacque fresco. Do you now about that? So yes do you think that is a more realistic version of civilization with smaller cities but they are connected nature friendly designed, and a resource based society with no money, i hate money and I think it causes alot of trouble. Is the Venus project realistic and could it happen? Of course he probably doesn't have everything right but the fundamentals about the Venus project how to do agriculture, resource based society, no money, technology that is helping us instead of controlling us and making a mess, the way he has designed cities, education his focus on art creativity, and making people self reliant and community. What are you're thoughts about that is that more realistic than the civilization we have now and is it possible if people can change their minds of course.
What have we actually done to this beautiful World we live in. We are killing our Children's future. It's got to stop. Please read the IPCC Environmental Report and then understand what we've done!
Change is in us all start today to help with my Daughter and my Granddaughter future.
Love and Peace to you all.
Look up the MEER Reflection Project by Ye Tao.
Informative video. I have recently spent time understanding overshoot as the core problem for humans - I don't think we will change the course we are on based on what I see . You can also check out Michael Dowd, who has 2 excellent videos : overshoot in a nutshell . collapse in a nutshell.
Overshoot is not a problem. We've gone from burning wood in stone age to renewable and nuclear. He doesn't factor in progressive effect. Imagine if everyone still used wood for everything. That is when overshoot be a direct problem. Now we neutralized some overshoot with innovation.
@@bloodcarnage8285 Hmm not sure what you are trying to say. Overshoot of population and resources is the central problem. Your analogy with wood shows you don't grasp the issue.
@@Lokidog1 Overshoot is only a problem if technology doesn't catch up. For example in the 70s there was talk of peak oil and of food security problems. Oil prices were spiking, too little production, and farms were failing to keep up with population growth (somewhat). But technology saved the day. Better methods of finding oil, better fertilizers, better plant breeds, etc. are still benefiting us up to today. While climate change alarmists draw a bleak picture of food production, we are actually seeing year-on-year increase in farm output. And we are expected to see more as poor countries and newly industrialized countries are still not at their peak level of efficiency.
We have not even started colonizing the oceans. Even a small area of the seas would provide substantial farming potential and habitable real estate.
And imagine the freedom against overshoot when we start colonizing moons, asteroids and planets.
If oil can power itself, it's own production then why can't renewables? And when renewables?
I move in Yoga (western) circles. Amazed that in a tribe purporting to have a grounded view how little “they” understand about overshoot, climate change. Or more often demonstrate behaviours that would reflect a closeness nature. Instead, fantasy thinking abounds, ruthless business development looking to profit from trauma and disassociation of young minds. I very much enjoyed this discussion, thank you 🙏🏼
Just because because someone does yoga doesn’t mean they do science. I work in an adjacent industry and the magical thinking abounds. It’s embarrassing.
0:21
1:05:00 📢
I can hear you too, very clear, important and utterly essential message so why poop all over it with bird sounds so loud that it overwhelms it??? And this coming from a guy who's only pet is a scarlet macaw he loves and he has had for 30 years.
Unfortunately could not listen to this because of the parrot noise in the background.
Am I going crazy, or is that birds!!!!😱🤯🤯 Holy shit
"And I'm not advocating revolution (openly)" lol it's OK we get the message
Human nature
The birds in the background are bloody annoying
As Prof Rees points out, business as usual and the Church of Economism (mainstream economics) that justifies and glorifies it, are the biggest enemies of human life on this planet.
Wow.. at 7:55ish I find myself wondering how he can possibly ignore the birds, and if he actually finds that shrieking pleasant.. he obviously expects us to like it..
Great message.. think I’ll google the subject and listen to someone that takes their video and information seriously..
All in all a refreshing analysis. But the “consensus” that the warmest years in history have been the latter years is simply wrong.
Birds in background create painful screech In my ear ..
Too bad.
If it's an overshoot, it means the system is oscillating faster and more - that means the system is getting farther from the convergence region. At each oscillation, don't forget this, the system changes - and changes in the direction of making oscillations even faster and wider. If this we look at this as a mass-spring-absorber or RLC system, oceans and atmosphere are the mass and spring, and the ecosphere is the absorber; the Sun's temperature oscillations are the external stimuli. In our system, however, the oscillations also affect the absorber and makes it smaller. There's no overshoot in this system - the region of convergence might be smaller than we thought.
*Birds:* "Look, humans, we survived the asteroid that took out the rest of the dinosaurs, so we know a thing or to about planetary crises. So here's what you need to do...wait, why aren't the humans listening? Maybe if we talk a little louder..." 😂
Great presentation...needs to be widely distributed.
Without the damn birds..
The solution to ALL of environmental problems: CONTRACEPTION AND REDUCED CONSUMPTION. Questions? Stress R Us
We need to do this. we need to do that. Why are these people telling us this? Are they expecting someone will listen to them and suddenly do these things? Do they imagine some popular uprising that will lead to doing these things. Popular uprisings are made by people with many different agendas. They will always end with confusion and exhaustion. In short these people should stop blabbing and do what has to be done instead of telling us what to do.
I think you'll find that this is a call to action. Why not join the action? If everyone who said 'there's nothing we can do" got together and demanded that our politicians woke up and acted, we might succeed.
Why not put a blanket over the birds ?
I agree that the bio mass of over 10 billion humans is a challenge for our planet. Perhaps fatal?
I wonder about the extinction of the dinosaurs from one hit by a meteor. What is the probability of a repeat of that? Nuclear war? Pandemic? I do not think that renewables will save us. I am not optimistic about the far future in regard to comfortable human excistence. In the year 2525, if humans are still alive.
substantive choice for God's federal hegemony of free will kingdom
Are the birds really going to squawk through the whole thing? I’m only a couple minutes in and I haven’t really caught a damn thing he’s saying…
While I agree the idea that people will do anything is a false hope
The standard Suburban model is a example, its a awful lonely life,but people will fight to the death literally about parking in the wrong spot etc
Chirping bird's made it impossible to hear in clarity what was being said.
Climate change is a non-issue. It's overshoot that is the problem. Without overshoot, we can EASILY adapt to whatever climate has resulted from our present-day abuses.
Obviously, sound is a major issue in this video. You lose your messaging and meaning
By having birds chirping all the time. Complete waste of time.
William - You're too smart and your message is too important to be cluttered or distracted by bird songs. I know you love your pets but you need to take your audio setup seriously or no one will listen to your message. You only have 4k views and I bet the average listening time is low. Balance Your Audio - this is 2022
So basically, we need to raise prices, have endless pandemic, wars, or sterilization etc. Sounds eventful
Warming is science. The "crisis" is political.
U would think if ur going to make a presentation to the world on utube u would choose a quiet environment with no disruption but no, we r subjected to loud budgerigars that is disturbing the ability to hear.
You're getting a *free* lecture from a world class thinker, delivered right to you on demand, about an existential threat to humanity and all life on earth - and you can't just suck up the tiny inconvenience of some birds in the background?
What a wonderful demonstration of why we are on this path to self destruction.
@@langdons2848it’s not a tiny inconvenience. The entire video is unlistenable to a lot of people. If you can make yourself power through it, good for you. But if this guy wants to be heard he should probably not put up screeching obstacles to being heard.
@@dayofthejackyl that's where the "free" part comes into it. You get the production quality you pay for. This seems more like a "you" problem than a "him" problem given the subject matter.
At around 20:10 you talk of the real economy. That graph shows the sun as the source of energy and the waste energy goes out. by conservation of matter, we know we cannot destroy matter. We can only transform it. So with almost 2 to 3 billion years of usable solar energy, and with potentially millions of asteroids and hundreds of moons and minor planets we can tap for material wealth, I see no reason why we should be afraid of an overshoot.
We should just develop fast enough to get ahead of that "overshoot" for at least 2 billion years.
Pull yourself up by your rapidly-disintegrating boot strap type of effort then, and ... reach the stars. Yeah that's humans for sure. Dream on Fantasy Man.
I think overshoot is not a problem if we factor in ecosystem with Neo liberal model. With innovation we can amplify resources. For example earlier we used wood for heat in dark ages. Then we used coal, then oil and gas then nuclear then renewable. As we advance through stages each person's carbon footprint is coming down and efficiency goes up. Your overshoot can be conquered with progress, innovation and eventually be neutralized. Progress can be a multiplicative effect.
Sure, magic will work
@@denisdaly1708 sure, vehicles and science are magic
War heaven over. Victor Father George thurogood powerful angel MICHAEL. Honorable Satan's. VIP s location. Afraid so I that good golf. Maybe country Grammer millions and MOFO u2 Lord.
Is this a bot comment? It makes zero sense
Extinction rates (1500-2009) peaked around 1900 at 50 per decade. Extinction rates have declined dramatically to around 4 to per decade in the 2000s. So the extinction rate is very low: 900 known lost species for 2.1 million known species in 500 years (IUCN), so from observations there are an average of slightly less than 2 species lost every year. Out of a known species total of over 2 million. That gives an annual percentage loss of less than 0.0001%. That's background extinction. At that frequency it will take over 930,000 years to reach 80% extinction of species experienced at the K-T boundary that saw the extinction of the dinosaurs. Of course, extinction is a natural part of the evolution of life on this planet with the average lifespan of a species thought to be about 1 million years (cf 930,000). It is estimated that 99.9% of all plant and animal species that have existed have gone extinct. It should also be noted that no families or genera have become extinct in the last 500 years. In fact marine diversity at the taxonomic level of families is the highest it has ever been in the Earth's long history (see Sepkoski Curve). In a review of 16,009 species, most populations (85%) did not show significant trends in abundance, and those that did were balanced between winners (8%) and losers (7%) (Dornelas et al, 2019). There have been only 9 species of continental birds and mammals confirmed extinct since 1500 (Loehle, 2011). No global marine animals have become extinct in the past 50 years (McCauley et, 2015 using IUCN data).
Couldn’t even make it two minutes because of the bird noise. There’s other videos with this guy that don’t have incessant bird squawking in the background. How anyone thought that was acceptable is beyond me.
Dont worry, birds won’t exist soon and you’ll be happy.
Capitalism... the whole system is not sustainable...we use way to much energy
Such great messages...too bad they are competing with the messages from his birds.
Solar lasts 10 times 25 years. Wind turbines 100 years
Over hype !!!!!!
Great information and direct to point and real source of the climate mess change many talk and few really understand. But who was the idiot that put birds sound on this talk...maybe Trump.. bird lover...what a waste ...! Damn..
join and give emotion and feeling to God's free will kingdom central authority; push out political governments in every nation, NATO and other region alliances, and UN
If a God was real, he would have stopped climate change going out of control.
@@ruairievans Christian religious folks could easily counter this argument by blaming climate change on God's arch enemy, Stan.
So why is it, the World can feed it self and keeps having ever larger harvests.
The World has over the past 30yrs greened by 30%.
Also the population will top out over the next 50yrs and then fall dramatically as happens with every countries population after it leaves poverty behind.
However you don't want to hear that sorry, WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE
"Here is what I am saying, if you want to be sustainable on this finite planet that already has a shrinking biocapacity , The only way that can occur is for the world's poor to remain poor.
What a bigoted answer. While during bumper crops, rich farmers would rather burn, bury, pour acid on, throw to the sea their crops rather than have them sell at a lower price.
The Earth can handle 4 times its current population at a reasonable standard of living if only people in the rich countries stops wasting food and material. Poor countries can live without your aids if only you in the rich countries are willing to sell your excess production at reasonable prices. Greed is the reason we would be needing 3 or 4 Earths, not that we are running our of resources but that resources are being denied by the powers that be.
If war alone is stopped, trillions of dollars and million man-hours manufacturing process will be freed up.
"If war alone is stopped, ...." Well there's a non-starter. There's a really pleasant thought ... and a TOTAL non-starter. You just, literally, typed "If humans weren't a species of Life but were instead some altruistic sentient energy like in Science Fiction". Yes for sure if only.
political government is separation from God's leadership, which provides substantive choice needed for organizing peoples and nations into God's free will kingdom
The sooner people abandon this “gods kingdom” bs, the sooner we can progress as a species.
IMO everything this guy said was opinion with little to no facts. For example: ecosystems: When Europeans first arrived in the Americas there were millions of bison farting all day long yet GHGs were fine, why? Because nature recycled it all, shit is fertilizer. Now we keep cows in pens with no way for nature to recycle their waste. It is HOW we grow food and keep livestock that needs to change, not our meat consumption.
He says renewables won't help. Total and complete bullshit. He has no studies to back him up, only ridiculous claims and opinions.
Worst climate change video I have ever seen, and I have seen 100s and 100s.
And now there are a 100 million cows in those Americas along with 80 million pigs putting out those GHG vs those millions of bison you reference, most in factory farms. If you return to a more regenerative form of agriculture you will have less land to support as many animals are currently locked in cages. This means reducing a persons meat consumption by 70 to 90% as there will be many fewer animals on traditional farms.
Renewables won't help as long as the population and consumption keep growing. We continue use more fossil fuels every year because while they can replace are demand for electricity and it can not yet replace fuel let alone materials. coal is required to make every wind mill blade and every solar panel.
You did not watch a talk on climate change you watched a talk on why everything is going to collapse. Too many people consuming to much on a finite planet. Climate change could be a reason we have no follow up civilization and we go extinct and accelerates our fall now. Vaclav Smil is the go to source on why are current society will not function on "Green" energy. Look into the revised analysis of the limits of growth study stated in the 1970s if you want more in depth data on overshoot.
Wind turbine energy can't create the energy to replace itself when it wears out. He's right on this. Renewables need fossil fuel to exist. How will renewables survive in a post coal and oil world.
@@liamhackett513 That doesn't even make sense. Oil is finite, wind is not. Neither is solar. If you really want to keep oil and coal then you live in a previous century.
@@johnnysystem2579 for fcks sake. Renewables will struggle just to keep the lights on never mind build an infrastructure that can replicate and continue itself. Do you think electric cars powered by renewable is feasible. No cars at all is the only thing that is truly feasible. Not being considered is it?.
@@liamhackett513 Wow, you are really really stunned! You haven't studied this but have instead listened to the bullshit oil company propaganda. I don't have the desire to correct all your mistakes. Go back to sleep.
human choice decentralization; God's kingdom central authority