I thought Electric Cars Were the Future. I Changed My Mind
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- Опубликовано: 25 апр 2024
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I thought electric vehicles were the future of transportation. Not so much because they're clean, but because many car enthusiasts love them for their powerful acceleration. However, it's becoming increasingly clear that the necessary upgrades to the electric grid aren't going anywhere near fast enough to get the transition done according to plan. This is why I believe now we'll likely see a shift to hybrids in the near future.
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Hi all, this is a re-upload of a video you might already have seen. Unfortunately, I got two numbers wrong when I said these were expenses per year until 2030, instead of expenses until 2030 (or 2035) respectively. There was also a graph at some point which was just unrelated to what I said and I took the opportunity to fix that, too.
I am very sorry that this has happened. I try very hard to check all images and numbers by myself, but unfortunately, mistakes do happen.
This video will have a very hard time. If you liked it the first time, I would appreciate if you could give the video a thumb up and just let it run until the end.
Don´t worry, shows your integrity🌻
No problem dear Sabine. Your information is fantastic.
Thanks for correcting yourself. It's nice to be reminded that journalism isn't totally dead and buried yet.
I ALWAYS do the opposite of what globalists say. That is why I am a pureblood.
I had tried to verify that information to use in a presentation that I gave yesterday. I found the same thing you did in your correction.
Perhaps your video descriptions could link sources, so things aren't quite so difficult to verify?
At this point, I'm tempted to buy a cargo bike and take the bus when needed
I did that 27 years ago. And still do it that way. However, i do live in Norway, and with a short distance to work, that is pretty much all i need when it comes down to daily transport. Yes, i know i am fairly lucky beeing able to only depend on my (electric) bicycle.
I've no problems with other people who see cars as better suited for their transportation needs though. And i can't deny that cars may be better suited for larger cargo.
Still, driving a car is like moving 1 or 2 tons of plastic and metal and enjoying the ride. I do wonder sometimes how much of the energy is actually used to move the driver , since the driver is probaly 10-20 times lighter then the car itself.
Done, although cheated and kept the car for hauling family couple of times a week, so actually I haven't, love using my bike through its the first choice if I can
Keep in mind, that cargo bikes don't come with air condition.
An electric cargo bike is a much better idea for the environment than owning a car. It gets most of what you need done, at a rate of speed that is more than good enough for most people who don't currently have 1-hour commutes. You'll contribute to needing fewer/smaller roads, rather than massive road projects that merely by existing have a significant negative contribution to handling CO2.
The added bonus is that you'll also likely suffer from fewer and less severe age-related health issues as you age.
Public transportation, as long as it's feasible is also a great option. I currently live somewhere where I can travel as much as I need by bus for less than 50EUR/month, which has led to me feeling very little need for a car for my everyday needs. .
@@werner.x Very true, and no roof to shield from rain and sleet
I'm ancient so I remember when people said cell phones would never take off because cell towers were expensive so it would only be a device for people that live in large cities.
strawman argument, no comparasion at all.
@@lhurst9550 I don't know it seems like if you dig into the history of almost any technology there are always those people who will list all the reasons why some new technology will never take off.
@@channelsofash Once again you bring up a point that does not matter. I agree with new tech and people not wanting to change however this is not the topic, rather energy density is. A battery cannot replace a gas tank till it can hold as much energy at about the same weight. No matter how much you wish you cannot change the laws of physics. The electric vehicle is great for short trips, not doing a lot of work, which is what trucks do. You have to generate enough electrical energy to do the work required, transport it, and store it inside of a vehicle before EVs replace ICE. It too over a 100 years to build the infrasture to do it with gas, give it another 50-75 and maybe.....
@@lhurst9550That's not a strawman argument
@@vjanssens399 She changed to people not wanting to accept new tech, when the discussion is energy density. "A straw man fallacy (sometimes written as strawman) is the informal fallacy of refuting an argument different from the one actually under discussion, .." So yes it is.
In the EU in 2025 new Hybrid vehicles will get new efficiency ratings because the existing ones are 3 to 5 times too optimistic, so they will consume more carbon credits.
And this is for the same reason BEV's aren't sold more than they are - people live in flats and cannot charge over night.
I used to charge at 2 am when excess power was being generated by coal and nuclear which couldn't be turned down too low. Now that I have solar, I charge at 1 pm in the afternoon when I'm exporting more than anyone can use.
CONDENSED AIR CAR ON RUclips COSTS NEXT TO NOTHING TO FUEL INVENTED BY FRENCHMAN IN EARLY 2000 NOW SOUPED UP TOO BOTH ARE ON RUclips AND COST NEXT TO NOTHING TO FUEL
I just got solar, and your plan was my plan, but with current gas use of around $15/week, the inevitable battery replacement cost negates my savings. Furthermore, the price of the EV is more to begin with (not to mention the investment in the panels). I'm all for the environment, but relying on a relatively few amount of people to save the environment is not going to work. The solar/EV solution needs to be financially attractive to a lot of people.
Again, I'm all for the environment, and I'm glad that you're benefiting at the moment, but if this doesn't scale up in a sustainable way, it's going to hurt more than help.
@@chrisdonovan8795 "the inevitable battery replacement cost negates my savings." What are you thinking is the lifecycle of EV batteries?
My coworker has installed solar panels to his house which powers the house completely, charges both of his electric vehicles, and has sufficient power remaining to send power to the grid. He gets paid by the power company monthly for power return. Yes its expensive upfront ($30k) but with his 10 year warranty on the solar panels, he will come out ahead no doubt.
@@chrisdonovan8795 I may or may not break even. However, if the utilities scale up solar, there will be more than enough power for people to charge during the day (especially here in Phoenix). The Russian use of natural gas to blackmail Europe pushed me over the edge to get solar.
"Gasoline smells good!" Loved that :))))))))
I was never a fan of the smell of gas.
@@JasonTaylor-po5xcit depends a lot on where and how you smell it. When I'm putting gas in a car at the pump it's oddly pleasant but if I get it on my hands or spill some indoors it's awful
I'm sure when the car was first invented people were like who is going to pay for all the roads.
When the telegraph was invented, who's going to pay for all those lines.
And when I was a kid "the Internet is growing too fast and it's going to crash"
The horse industry (that employed hundreds of thousands of people in the very early 20th century) tried their best to get gas cars outlawed. The horse industry is now dead, just like the gas car industry will be in a few years.
Wen the car was invented they used the same roads then horse-drawn carriages used. It took decades until the first roads specifically for cars were built.
It is also worth mentioning that for a few years (roughly 1890 to 1910) electric cars dominated the market although for sure the power grid at the time was also not that good. There were three main reasons why combustion cars took over. The invention of the starter removed the problem that combustion cars were cumbersome to start. Standard Oil was able to provide cheap fuel which btw. also led to other fuels like ethanol being wiped from the market. Finally the cars with gasoline had a superior range. The result was that within a short time the era of electric cars was over.
These 3 factors which are convenience, price and range are still the factors that will decide which type of car will be used. If the price of electric energy will go through the roof as the transition of the power grid needs to be payed then the life time of combustion engines might be longer then expected.
Yep, I agree. We have been driving the same way for over 100 years. I am sure 100 years from now, we will be teleporting or something because humans will cease to exist when AI takes over.
Sorry Wrong, it was a "HORSE Less" Carriage and used the same trails.
but you are on the correct path. This is WHY Westinghouse and Tesla went to WAR with Edison!
Edison was a scumbag who wanted DC and owned all the generation of DC, cared only of profits and power.
Westinghouse and Tesla wanted to Improve Mankind and our living standards.
Here in Slovenia over 2/3 of households can't connect their solar panels to the grid and sell electricity because power grid just isn't strong enough. Now we usually have 1x35A or 3x20A main fuzzes and after "green transition" when we should all heat our homes with heat pumps and drive electric cars 3x35A would be minimal.
Next question is how will people who can only park their vehicles on public parking spaces charge their cars. Charging it on public charging stations is already more expensive then filling your tank with diesel. People whose income is already below average will get even more poor.
What I personally like the most is how quiet they are inside. For someone that doesn't like loud sounds it was a revelation to listen to the radio on a low volume inside my car.
I love that, but I also love the lack of fumey, fuelly smells. When I get in an ICE care these days, the smell is noticeable.
Yes, not everyone thinks gas-powered cars smell good. I think they smell putrid.
I literally carry a benzene gas mask through the parking lot to deal with today's herd of trucks and SUVs.
@@Scott_Hoge agree, every time I filled up my car in the past I could smell it on my hand for hours.
But at the same time, they are quite outside. Which can be very or extremely (!) dangerous. Old and infants do not hear and see anymore the car. Thus the rate of accidents can jump.
@@michen25 "As of 1 January 2014, most of the hybrids and plug-in electric and hybrids sold make warning noises using a speaker system" (when travelling at low speeds, before tyre noise takes over). Reference:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_vehicle_warning_sounds#Market_availability
I think horse and buggies are the future. But I think it will be a while before we reach that future.
2040 ish supposedly.
you mean WWIII is nigh??
Not so much time, probably. Germany already sells out it's steel production.
But we need to plant more trees anyhow. Plenty of wood for carriages.
And people here love horses.
Be the early adaptor! Buy a horse and carriage today!
@@MarshallMathersthe7th I'm waiting on the infrastructure to catch up.
Possibly, but at least in the U.K. I listened to a senior grid engineer say that upgrades to cope were planned and adequate.
I think the rest of the world will just be fine coping with electric cars. Apart from Germany Where red tape is more important than progress.
Of course they do. It's likewise in Germany.
Gouvernment doesn't consider it appropriate to keep the level of individual traffic as high as it currently is.
So, make it unappealing to buy cars like we used to in the past is part of the plan.
Then the grid will be sufficient in 2035, that's what they did tell us in their great wisdom.
At least in Germany. But i'd think, the UK gouvernment has at least the same level of wisdom.
Where will the electricity come from?
Its fun to plan but someone has to pay for it and that's where things fall apart.
can confirm - UK grid is very much on track.
If everyone were to drive plug-in hybrids, and most people’s daily driving is entirely in EV mode because the electric mileage is sufficient to accommodate it, then how does that significantly change the power grid needs? The average EV owner will likely drive the same miles as the plug-in electric owner and require the same amount of recharging.
I guess when the grid collapses (if that is the worry) the hybrid can drive on with gas.
Because they can charge at home most of the time, whereas an all electric is dependent on the availabilty away from home. Gas stations are ubiquitous, because they already put EV manufacturers out of business over a century ago so they could sell oil.
Unfortunately a recent report into the fuel efficiency of cars in Europe showed that PHEV drivers charge their cars far less often than expected, and end up using a lot of fuel. Emissions were hence 5x what was expected, from memory.
@@typhoon320i come on people, think! If the grid collapses, there won't be any gas, because the gas stations use ELECTRIC pumps!
When you try to sell it your in for a big shock, even dealers won't take one in px and if it needs repair it's an expensive specialist job, insurers write them off rather than pay for repairs that may be more than the cars worth😮
Question for you Sabine. How did all the trains and all the railroads become electrified? Why were there no hybrid locomotives left? Diesel electric
because nobody asked where the electricity for the trains is coming from. if people would ask where the electricity for the trains is coming from, all the trains in the world would stop immediately.
Because trains are powered via high voltage wires with no need for portable electricity or battery packs.
steam power in much more efficient, and a small 'submarine' type' reactor could power a steam locomotive for long time.
Electric trains came before diesel trains, that's why. Electric trains were invented in the late 19th century and were implemented heavily by the 1930s. The first diesel locomotives appeared in the 1920s and didn't fully replace steam locomotives until the 1960s. Also electric trains take their power directly off the wire and don't need batteries or any advanced tech at all.
Question to you: Have you ever seen battery-powered trains?
At least here in the U.S we don't necessarily need to update the gride itself, We need to encentivise home owners and apartments need to adops Solar pannels and Battery technology, keep the energy siloed where it needs to be instead of trying to ship electricity across the whole country.
Take a look at sand battery technology. It’s basically a very large community based thermal energy store. Once renewable electricity is above base load on the grid it makes a very cheap store for energy.
Yes, definitely. However, that still needs an upgrade to electricity supply networks, because existing networks are not designed to cope intelligently with that level of distributed generation. A full national integration of networks with smart distribution is needed.
If the problem is bureaucracy then change the system, not the ambition that comes from necessity to convert the transportation and home devices to electric and raise the percentage of renewable production added to the grid.
It's not even about bureaucracy... it's just economics. USA sources only 20% from renewable.... the conversion process is slow. First transistor was invented in 1947 it took 50 years for home computers to start to take off along with the internet. Infrastructure can not transform that quickly. The main reason is people don't want to pay for it unless it pays for itself through natural and sustainable revenues.
The bearocracy that stifles innovation will fail spectacularly, and in such an event what typically follows is reform
Gridscale energy storage deployment is indeed self funding due to the high margins, and the load reduction on existing infrastructure means you can effectively upgrade our existing systems without having to make as many expansions as you'd otherwise expect
Also, regarding acceleration of infrastructure development, that is exactly what can, will, and is already happening, won't be easy ofc, but gridscale and local energy storage is basically the solution
Haha, change the system... oh young one
Fikretyet,
it is not bureaucracy, that's the error.
The biggest mistake is in thinking you can power a grid, and hence a country, with renewable generation.
To electrify transport and heating is simply compounding that error.
Renewables are not an equivalent to conventional generation, they cannot control output feeding a system that has to be finely controlled on an instantaneous basis. Then intermittency is another and in my view the most significant obstacle that will not be overcome. It is infeasible to have sufficient battery capacity to meet that deficiency.
Then there are technical deficiencies, no inertia, no reactive power input, no short circuit current level input and also in view of all those deficiencies, renewables are not capable of a black start to restore power when the inevitable grid trip happens.
When I stated college I drove four hundred miles of two lane highway, one each way, built in the 1920s, previously a dirt road for stage coaches and wagons. It was not at any point level or straight and had two gas stations for that distance, neither at the mid point, so you stopped at both to do that stretch. If you mismanaged it no tow truck coming, but the once or twice a day state highway patrol would carry a few spare gallons for you.
Even then you were still short 290 miles from college, but in more occupied areas. Basically a three stop journey at least taking about ten hours. Assuming your radiator didn't give out on a 100 plus day on a tar black road of about 150 degrees in the summer. Without AC, just very hot wind blowing through your car. I could mention more potential problems like washed out roads, dust storms, head on wrecks, loose animals on the road as you topped the rise a hundred feet away, etc.
It took two years of that stretch to finish Interstate 10. There were workers camps set up in the drastic remote area to accommodate this national agenda started by President Eisenhower. All goods, water, etc was trucked to these camps on the same and only narrow two lanes. If a large truck came down one lane he was bigger than the lane, so everyone pulled over to let him continue before proceeding now in single file at the speed of the slowest vehicle which always ends up in front automatically.
So, when people complain about change, aggravation, alternatives, theories, altering future history, how bad things are or were, while having no accurate knowledge of history or experience with it, I think of wimps, mindless peons, spoiled youth and lack of education from real teachers instead of propaganda sellers. 😮
It makes no matter what I or anyone thinks about EVs or AI or robotaxis or economics or climate change or renewable energy replacing fossil fuels, etc. It's unavoidable and inevitable and debating it is mostly pointless. It has to happen. It's predictable and logical and if you don't like it too bad. It's fun to ride horses, but their pets now and not the mandatory necessity they once were.
EVs are themselves only a transition to what comes next which is already bearing down on us. There are more changes lined up for this century alone just in transportation as an industry.
People are living in a former world, clutching desperately for something dying and the end already known. No history stands still or unchanged and now the world is in a rapidly accelerating future, like a snow sled careening faster and faster. You can't stop it and barely steer it. You can only hold on and face it like a man or an animal.
Me? I'm excited, happy, like challenges and accept evolution of the adaption of species or extinction. 😊. Those that can't won't matter. 😮. That's the nature of life.
Wow, amazingly written!
@@diegoolivarez1 Thanks. I take pride in my education since every skill depends on clear speaking, very good writing and understanding exact understanding of reading, not unclear interpretation. Those three foundations determine everything else.🤔
Or……people simply live more locally. Not all structures get bigger, better and more efficient, often they cease to exist because they become too big, too complex and too dispersed. History provides us with many examples.
If a very hot summer or a very cold winter still causes blackouts just because ACs or heaters… 🤷🏻♂️
Funny because Hybrids still have crazy expensive batteries. I found out the hard way by buying a used hybrid. The battery lasts 150,000 miles, then its to the recyclers because it wont be worth the 5000+ investment in a replacement.
Chris Fix has a video on how to replace the Prius battery yourself for substantially less money.
Hybrids are not the way forward. They have many more parts than EVs, and that's an understatement. So they also break down more, and are a big expense over their lifetime. They also catch fire much more often than EVs, making more pollution.
@@FLPhotoCatcher expensive repairs are not the answer.
@@FLPhotoCatcher We've owned a Prius for ten years and the only repairs have been scheduled maintenance and recalls to update the hybrid system firmware. Having owned three Toyotas in the past 15 years, none have needed any major repairs other than scheduled maintenance and recalls.
@@FLPhotoCatcher You are WRONG about breaking down more often. My wife has a Chevy Volt with 110,000 miles on it and its engine is doing great. The reason is the engine has only driven 30,000 of those miles and it is very lightly used when it does. We have 100+ years of experience with designing ICE engines and they have been well-researched and optimized in that time.
EV cars just are not ready yet.
One thing that people tend to forget is that fuel diversity is important. It should not be about changing to an entire different thing rather having many options to reduce the strain on one system and having options for when one gets too expensive.
Provided they're all zero co2.
I dont think world leaders want more options for citizens. More options means less control. If anything, the move to electric is some large percentage about making travel energy less fungible. With liquid petrol you can pack an extra 300 miles in the back, but with electric, your access, rates, and ability to redistribute are completely managable remotely.
Maybe when we can pick up a fresh battery as easy as a can of propane we will be in business...
You are not wrong.
However, from that perspective electricity gives a whole lot more of different fueling options ranging from Solar to Synthetics to Wave power to Nuclear power to Diesel to Coal to Biofuels.
Just buy one of many different available generators. Problem solved, and added range to that fuel to boot.
The majority of new EV owners immediately install solar panels reducing the load on the grid. So there is no issue, on the contrary. EV accelerates the green transition only making the grid more and more irrelevant.
A FRENCHMAN INVENTED AN CONDENSED AIR CAR AND IT'S ON RUclips EARLY IN 2000 ON THE SCIENCE CHANNEL THERE ARE REALLY SOUPED UP ONES ON RUclips NOW AS WELL AND IT COSTS NEXT TO NOTHING TO FUEL IT TOO IT WENT AT FIRST UP TO 72 MI PER HOUR
The clip for “The transition isn’t going as smoothly as hoped” is pretty fun.
I have walked or cycled or taken the train my whole adult life. Im nearly 30 and live in a village in England. But its becoming too difficult and inconvenient to keep this up. Ive now decided to get a car...
How long did it take to go from horse to car because the infrastructure was not there?
It took around 25-50 years for the transition from Horses to Cars depending on what % of horse vs cars user ratio you would consider for the transition to be complete. 25 years for horses to not be the main mode of transportation and around 50 for horses to be almost non-existent as a means of transport.
Also, it was actually horse-->bicycle/streetcar-->car. So not straight to cars...and significant overlap with streetcars through wwii
The infrastructure was there?
If you look back of photos of New York it took about 20 years, in 1890 horses everywhere, by 1912 mostly trucks and cars
@@nasser314 I think it was dependent on where you lived and economical circumstances. My parents were still using horses to get to school and to town into the early 50's. Neither had grid electricity until 1958.
Electric car owner here. It’s true, Sabine. Electric cars do accelerate faster. Much faster.
They have to have *something* going for them.
And deplete that battery quite nicely with that
@@joesterling4299They are also quieter and cost less to drive, they also have fewer parts, and therefore less wear and tear, so they break down much less.
And in a handful of years I am convinced that the infrastructure will be fully operational to accomodate, meaning no more range anxiety.
@@texanplayer7651 "so they break down much less"
and when they do they'll be a write off, bit funny bit its true now isn't it, less parts as in a glued in battery for smartphones.
So do trams.
It is almost like central planning does not work...
Should we talk about the demand on mining of rare earth elements for the electronics, batteries, magnets? recovery from written-off EVs to recycle?
which are all getting recycled.
Hybrids are expensive to repair.
As are EVs, should anything go wrong (usually, the ultra-expensive battery). Plug-in hybrids are BEVs with an auxiliary ICE generator that kicks in when the battery runs low. They're no more complex than a battery-electric pickup truck hauling a generator on its bed.
@@joesterling4299 PHEVs have two powertrains that can break, and need to be maintained and repaired. To your point, PHEV are like a BEV + generator. But, only the generator part needs constant maintenance, and trips to the station to fill up. In addition to all this, the most efficient PHEV have a separate bypass mode that provides a direct coupling for constant highway speed operation.
How about this. Take a PHEV, simplify it, and put the generator at home or in "gas stations", and just beef up the battery... further simplify the system and just replace the generator with a charger....lo and behold, you've got a BEV.
Gas cars are expensive to maintain.
@@surkh Constant maintenance of the engine? Idk what world you live, but my 20 year old cars engine doesn't need ''constant maintenance'' it just needs an oil change every 15k km and a new airfilter..
@@joesterling4299 My EV has actually been really cheap to maintain compared to any ICE that I have ever owned. There is actually resources that show the maintenance is a lot cheaper as well. It is very rare to have a drivetrain battery go wrong on a BEV. PHEV are more susceptible to battery issues.
What about all these massive leaps in battery price reductions?
They have flattened out. The battery-making capacity can only grow so quickly. People don't take into account how "dirty" the process is getting from raw lithium to battery feedstock on the coal-powered Chinese grid where most of this is done.
@@alansnyder8448sodium batteries
@@alansnyder8448Shall we talk about how dirty fossil fuel mining is?
For every tonne of raw mineral product mined to make an electric car, 100 tonnes of raw mineral product needed to be pumped to power a combustion car
Not going to happen, Big Oil is/will be Big Lithium (or whatever new tech) and they like profits.
@@alansnyder8448 You need lithium for cars only (and even that may change). The batteries for house owners do not have to be light, cheap is enough. These batteries will help the grid a lot.
At some point, I want to learn to weld. So I can build my own frame. I want to build a Flintstone mobile. Yabadabadoo.
I built an E-Trike 48V 20A LiFePO4 battery. I have enough patio roof to have solar that charges one battery while I use the the other. In a black out I can power my fridge and monitor for a few hours on one battery looking at getting a few more to extend usage and by swapping them out gives them longer life. The E-Trike can go a week or so between charges.
As a Hybrid owner, battery replacement costs makes them much less attractive.
At least that's not a problem with electric cars. It's extremely unlikely you'll ever need to replace a battery on an electric car (Exclude the 12 volt battery)
Why would you be replacing the battery?
There are many Teslas that have done over 500k miles and one that's done a million with only 75% degradation
@@BaybieK The batteries need to be replaced when they will no longer hold a charge, or too many have shorted out. The Lithium Batteries don't last forever. If I remember right, the typical life is around 7-10 years.
No, you are confusing typical life and guaranteed life.
@@jgreen9361 I'm not confused when the Dealer said it would cost $7,000 to replace the batteries, parts and labor on a 2001 Toyota Prius.
I think battery prices will continue to fall. They will be 50% of what they are today in 2 years.
This completely changes the economics.
Hybrids will no longer be a price compromise between BEV and ICE.
BEV will be the least expensive to purchase. ICE will be next. The powertrain cost for a BEV will be less than the powertrain cost for an ICE.
It will cost more money to build a car with two inexpensive powertrains, leading to hybrids being the most expensive option.
As we add grid batteries to the system we can collect all that excess power that was not needed when it was produced. Power prices will go down compared to gasoline prices.
People vote with their wallets.
People pay more money for the better product. And when there is no charging option at every parking spot, this technology will never hit the market as a mass product. Your smartphone would not be a mass product if you could only charge it at home, and only if you have your own dedicated charger. And even if you had, if outside your home hundreds of phones would have to share one charging station and only one per time, you can guess that nobody would use smartphones.
This product fails by design. You would not ride a horse that you can't feed food and water anywhere, why would you? And 50% of what they cost today is another thing that will make it fail. It would need to be the third of the cost of a basic gasoline car of today to compensate for all the pitfalls that come with the product.
And you forget that the most regions on earth make it physically impossible to use electric vehicles, neither the climate, the weather, nor the infrastructure would ever allow it. Even in developed countries it will never be fully useable. Just one major power outage and everyone will abandon their electric cars and demand fossils to return. You can see how often electronic devices fail, even things like paying with credit card isn't possible every once in a while.
For elementary things like mobility the analogue systems have nothing that could replace them.
@@lars5288
//...when there is no charging option at every parking spot, this technology will never hit the market as a mass product.
I disagree - there is a great deal of money to be made by allowing customers to use a slow charger for free while shopping. 15kw chargers could easily be put up along streets and parking lots. if you drive 40 miles a day or less that is under 1 hour of charging.
1% of cars are EVs - just because of the lifespan of cars, this cannot change by more than about 5-10% per year. that is 20 years before we need to be completed.
//Your smartphone would not be a mass product if you could only charge it at home, and only if you have your own dedicated charger.
I think we have 20 years to build up capacity to support a 100% EV fleet, and that evaluating things based on the first year is a mistake..
We can manage what we have now - and we can easily add 5% capacity per year.
//50% of what they cost today is another thing that will make it fail. It would need to be the third of the cost of a basic gasoline car of today to compensate for all the pitfalls that come with the product.
I disagree. You only need to consider the powertrain because the rest of the car uses common components and processes. Labor is greatly reduced on the EV powertrain, and materials cost will soon be lower as well.
//And you forget that the most regions on earth make it physically impossible to use electric vehicles, neither the climate, the weather, nor the infrastructure would ever allow it.
No. It is much easier to produce a solar infrastructure than a gasoline infrastructure. An electric infrastructure is needed by society, but a gasoline infrastructure is not. People in the cold land of Finland are very happy with their electric cars - 70%.
//Even in developed countries it will never be fully useable.
You are predicting the future - I disagree with your prediction.
Just one major power outage and everyone will abandon their electric cars and demand fossils to return.
With many grad batteries in place there will be no more power outages.
If there is a power outage, can you pump gasoline?
If it gets so bad that you cannot charge your car, you also will not be able to find gasoline. People can make electricity, but people cannot make their own gasoline. (unless you want run your own biodiesel factory).
//You can see how often electronic devices fail, even things like paying with credit card isn't possible every once in a while.
Yes you can. Itis called MTBF - Mean Time Between Failure. Electromechanical systems are on the order of 10,000 hours. Elechtrochemical systems are on the order of 1,000 hours.
if you assume 30 miles per hours, 1,000 hours would be 30,000 miles - your first service check. For an EV you check the oil in the gearboxes at 150,000...
//For elementary things like mobility the analogue systems have nothing that could replace them.
Electrical systems are about twice as energy efficient. if this fuel were used in power plants instead of incars we would use far less fuel.
Yeah until we run out of lithium and have to mine it from sea water
You are talking about a future that doesn't exist in the present moment. BEVs had more than 15 years to prove their sustainability and practicality. And now people have decided the improvements they've made is not enough. So it's hybrids for the foreseeable future.
@nuwanpremarathne1759
As an engineer, it is my job to predict when technologies will be available at a price point.
Of course, ai am talking about a future that does not exist yet. I do it all the time - I am extremely good at these predictions. This is why I state them confidently - my track record of success.
No - BEVs have not been around for 15 years in the same way as they are today. 15 years ago Li-ion batteries included solvents that would boil at about 130F and they would pop when hot. That technology hasn't been used since 2012.
There have been significant advancements in power electronics, batteries, motors, braking, manufacturing, software, etc every few years over the last 15 years.
It is like you were suggesting that today's smartphone is just like the phone of 15 years ago.
Major improvements continue to happen every few years. This scares people.
It has a name from the 80s - the Osborne Effect. You start talking about how much better the next version will be and people decide to wait. You lose business by doing this... you also cause people to stop buying the competition...
i believe you think the infrastructure scale wrong.
we don't need a centralized grid that makes loading possible for everyone, everywhere.
most driving is commuting/shopping/visiting close by friends.
You can do all that with PV on your roof that loads your ev while you are at home/your friends home.
the whole make energy at spot X, transfer it through half the country, and then use it is simply a wrong approach that will be fixed in the future.
The future is without cars alltogether. In Norway for example, you can feel every year, that they are very busy making obstacles for people to own a car. Car is quickly becoming a luxury only few chosen ones will be able to maintain.
You have a 20 trillion dollar economy and need to spend 500 billion to upgrade your grid. That should be a rounding error.
According to IMF figures, Globally $7 trillion per year is spent subsidising fossil fuels. Image the grid that could be belt using that money there instead.
@@C0wCakes No one "spent" 7 trillions in 2022. IMF counts "impact on the world" as subsidy, but it doesn't mean that someone actually paid this much money.
The estimated cost for upgrading the US grid for ev’s, new and upcoming data centers, crypto mining, mandated electric appliances is actually more like $3.7 trillion. Who’s going to pay for that, you Lt. Weinberg??
@@C0wCakes where do you think money for making of this video come from? they are part of those $7 trillions
@@robertherman1146 who paid for creation of current us grid, dummy? electricity consumers. sale of electricity is profitable business.
Near Pittsburgh, they tore down a power plant and left the old "low" voltage transmission lines. So old, and so low voltage (short insulators) then had to run 6 lines across 3 towers. These wires span heavily populated areas and highways. They aren't connected at the remains of the power station which is now demolished. These towers and lines are abandoned. My new hobby is not bird watching, but grid watching. It's very interesting. And I even found a substation where a transmission line terminates with no visible outgoing lines - it has a set of large fan cooled units with nothat that resembles a transformer.
This take is so sensible I first thought it might be satire.
Few cars have a drivetrain like this : you pump up the gas , but that gas , like a generator I guess, powers the electric motor which gives power to the wheels. So you still have advantage of fast acceleration but commodity of gasoline fast pumping...
USA spends $106B per year on oil extraction. This is totally feasible. But somehow, spending this much spread over 10 years, on upgrading the grid, is impossible.
Back of the napkin calculations reveal that, relative to USA GDP, the US spent what would currently anount to **over $70 Trillion** fighting WWII. So that’s approximately what we can afford if we really, really cared about an existential issue.
Maths are from Nobel Economist Paul Krugman in NYT discussing lend-lease program to UK before we entered WWII. “at about $60 billion [ukrainian aid package] is less than one-fourth of 1 percent of G.D.P. - around one-fortieth the size of the initial Lend-Lease appropriation. Anyone claiming that spending on this scale will break the budget, or that it will seriously interfere with other priorities, is innumerate, disingenuous or both.”
13 billion was 10% of gdp in WWII. We spent a total of 340 billion in the war. That’s over 250% of gdp. With today’s gdp of 27 trillion, that would be the equivalent of $70 trillion.
i mean its obvious, when you don't think about it
FYI 85% of "the Gride" RUNS on OIL, Coal, and Natural Gas. So? Ya! Invest in Oil! even the E autos run on 100% of the 85% oil, coal, natural gas "gride"" so again? Ya! Invest in OIL!
...and completely unnecessary...
@@davefellhoelter1343 not sure what your point is.
Is this a re-do? I think you did this video before, or it has been a really long day, and I am remembering this morning.
Oh my goodness, it just cannot work. There are no gasoline stations!
I agree about hybrids being the future, plus I grew up in a town that had a strong railroad culture. I was fascinated with that hybrid idea when I heard trains use it.
Hybrids are the worse. Double complexity, more parts to fail. Also, neither engine/battery work at optimal conditions, so more prone to failure as is.
That's when she lost my faith in her objective scientific research. Hybrids are the worst possible decision. If she is recommending them, it shows that she isn't doing neutral analysis anymore. Either she's trying to appeal to the majority of electric car sceptics or her research team has made a grave mistake and she doesn't have the time anymore to realize and fix it. In any case this video will be an ugly blemish in her track record.
@@olafarlt2 talk to taxi drivers about maintenance with hybrids - I don't know about other auto makers but Toyota hybrids are extremely low maintenance cost compared to ICE cars and last forever...some taxi drivers have 500K miles and still going strong! However, NONE of them liked pure EV's
@@holysmoke3201 How is having two engines to be maintained instead of one being cheaper? Plus EVs need much less maintenance since there are no spark plugs and no engine oil that need to be changed on a regular basis.
I have talked to taxi drivers for example in Kopenhagen, where a lot of them are already driving in pure EVs. The driver said he needs to charge his car once a day and can do that either over night or during quiet times.
And from a CO2 perspective, Hybrids aren't solving any problems. You're still burning finite and climate-damaging fossil fuels to get them to move.
There is a difference between PHEV and traditional hybirds. Traditional hybrids demonstratably reduce fuel consumption of ICE. My Prius V (bigger, heavier) car uses less petrol than my Corolla.
@@olafarlt2 Proof is in the pudding!! SEVERAL taxi drivers I've talked to LOVE their Toyota hybrids and all of them say its wayyyy lower maintenance than an ICE car - you can google it yourself!!
According to insurance numbers in the US, per 100K sold, EVs are only involved in ~25 fires. That number jumps to ~1,500 for ICE vehicles, and all the way to ~3,000 for hybrids. Are you sure you want a hybrid?
I don't want a hybrid. I'm just saying I think this is how things will develop.
@@SabineHossenfelderBut you also liked the comment: “I cannot believe vehicles carrying a ton of batteries will ever be a good idea”. That’s kind of how EVs work for the foreseeable future.
What about the new prototypes of hydrogen engines? The production of green, blue and white hydrogen is constantly increasing.
@@SabineHossenfelder According to project drawdown the cheapest way to lower carbon emissions is to build bicycle infrastructure, i think this video should be tempered by maybe covering some of their suggestions for fighting climate change.
That's a misleading statistic as many cars are set on fire as they are stolen vehicles, false insurance claims, or acts of revenge. The cause of the fire is not what is being reported in insurance data, but the cause of the damage to the car is.
The rapid acceleration of performance model EVs has contributed to an increase in the number of accidents. The problem is that many drivers are not accustomed to the immediate transfer of power, and this can result in drive wheels breaking traction, especially on road surfaces which are rain slickened or covered in light grit.
That usually isn't an issue with high power EVs, they're usually AWD with extremely advanced traction control systems since EVs have much more precise control over power delivery.
Your quote: “Hydrogen, methane and ammonia are all nasty stuff to deal with - but gasoline.. it smells good”
OMG I think you have been sniffing too much of it 😂
I have had an electric vehicle for nearly three years. I have a 7 kw charger at home. It costs me £12 €15 every 14 days and I don't use public charging stations.
They can be very useful for driving about a town or perhaps a county where the weather is moderate.
Good for you. Works nice for your situation.
@@richardkammerer2814 define moderate. We use our EV all year round including snow&ice and hot summer. No issues so far. The range when freezing cold drops a bit, but it’s still plenty for what we need. Still we should’ve bought a PHEV, is what I think now. Because then we wouldn’t need a third car. Now we do.
@@Gemini_0815can you see stats about how much the car uses energy to keep the battery warm when there are -20c at the outside?
@@Gemini_0815 When we go to the family reunion 600 miles away in state park territory, that’s a moderate drive.
Electric cars are probably the future, but the technology is probably not mature enough as a consumer product, yet. That does not mean we will not get there eventually. I think there are a few problems: 1. the battery evidently still has limited capacity, 2. EVs are heavier, so there is more kinetic energy necessary to reach the same speed, and in case of a crash, that energy will be transformed in a lot of trouble, 3. multistorey car parks are often not build for heavier cars either; 4. the electric grids are often not made to transfer such large loads of energy (in countries like the Netherlands, these are reaching the capacity, so no more EVs can be charged directly); 5. electric cars are slightly cleaner than ICE cars, but the difference is not "revolutionary", especially since a lot of energy goes into *constructing* the vehicle; 6. the resources for batteries are like any resource, limited, and often require mining in third world countries.
Agree, give it another century or two
@@noidea3p5 hahahahahahahaha.
Have to agree though, am quite tired of the ever coming fusion reactors.... it'll be here in just 30 more years (again)
@@xerr0n Mr Fusion powered car will probably be the only practical tech.
They are the future; cleaner, quieter, simpler, faster, longer lasting, cheaper to run.
There were two disadvantages.
They were more expensive. That has already been solved. We have yet to see it in Europe and USA, but it is the case in China, it is a done deal technically.
They didn’t go as far and were slower to re-charge. The new batteries already exist to solve for that, they’re just not widespread yet, but it is a done deal technically.
Legislation already exists to delete ICE cars by the mid-2030’s. That is a done deal.
So, electric cars are the future, no maybe about it.
The tech is already mature enough, and it will still get better, unlike ICE which has changed little in 30 years.
It is true that we’ll get there eventually, it’ll take a few years yet to transition to the point everybody accepts it.
Don't you know, that the electric car was on the road and functioning in practice years before the gas powered car came along?
How many centuries of development do you think we need to make electric cars equally impractical as an up to date gas powered Volkswagen?
And would you buy this ripened product then?
A simple perusal of the news, and a little searching, is all it takes to get the necessary facts. In the state with the highest percentage of road-registered electric vehicles (California, at around 3.9% of the passenger fleet) the authorities already must sometimes tell EV owners not to recharge during certain hours when the grid is getting dangerously overloaded.
I’m in a 2015 Nissan Leaf- 70mi range, and I’ll NEVER go back. BUT- I have a 25mi commute to work, can slow charge at work, and have a level 2 charger in my garage. Once you have easy access to a charger near home you will suddenly lose all interest in maintaining a vehicle with two separate power trains.
But most people want the same vehicle to also be used for longer trips especially on the weekends and holidays😊
but you cannot tow a hanger with 17 horses for 1500km without any stop when you drive to you vacation spot. i am not an expert but that seems to be the minimum requirement these days.
i don't know what to do with 17 horses at my vacation spot and how i can drive 1500km without wetting my pants, but as i said, i am not an expert.
We have 100 cars in the parking lot at work and only 2 electrical chargers. Never going to happen.
@@lamaistulYou can charge it at home on a normal power point. Just a couple of hours of charging required after a typical daily commute.
@@graerindley6312 Most EVs will go much further than a Leaf. It’s a pretty old model. 500km on a charge is pretty normal these days. Most people wouldn’t drive that far regularly, and even if they did, probably need a driving break every few 100km.
I built an illegal electric "light motorcycle" with a 1500W motor and a 2kWh battery. Absolutely nothing beats its efficiency, including pedaling, because the battery was always charged directly by solar panels.
Cars just aren't the right solution to the problem. You don't need to carry around tons of metal, glass and plastic to get to the grocery store and back, and you really shouldn't have to live so far from work where you need to be driving back and forth.
The answer isn't electric cars or hybrid cars, it's better urban design
How much C02 can you tolerate to rebuild everything out of concrete. There are no quick fixes.
@simontemplar404 Yes, rebuilding things when they wear out is how it will work for most all changes. Doesn't mean we don't need to quickly get our current regulations lined up to make the future more liveable for future generations.
Amen
Utopia thinking and impossible, you can't have everyone in mega-cities it's just not possible. What about the heavy industrie (factories) farmers powerplants etc.. Do you also want those in these mega-cities? I wouldn't.. Especially not the nuclear powerplants and loud industry.
Cars are the answer, it simply is the best mode of transportation since it's all purpose, you can drive it to work, AND take your family with you, and haul heavy loads etc. And yes, ideally with combustion engine, but a hybrid is fine too.
People could use a motorcycle for longer commutes, but it's not cheap to buy a motorcycle and maintain 2 vehicles. Also, cold icy weather exists etc.
We are doing fine, i am lucky to live closeby my work, so i can actually cycle there. But i understand the people who work further away either they really have no choice, or they can earn more. We all need to make a living.
You have a better change of having all work done by robots.
I think Urban designers realize this but the reality is that you have a street design and infrastructure in place. I think there has been some movement in that the modern technology allows for more at home work now. E-bikes and mobility is also helping along with some redesign to allow for more alternatives but it is still difficult.
Governments are holding off including a battery insulation test in the mandatory car annual inspection (MoT in the UK). But the ferries and Eurotunnel are going to insist on it. At which point, due to the cost of batteries, be prepared to scrap your EV if it fails.
It's really hard to beat the combination of energy density and easy room-temperature storage that you get with liquid hydrocarbons. Maybe all this money being spent on other fuel technologies would be better spent on scrubbing CO2 from the atmosphere. Those facilities can be optimized for performance since they don't have tradeoffs due to having to be heavy and mobile and carry delicate passengers around at 100 kph.
...and when the lovely liquid hydrocarbs run out in about 30 -40 years max? What then?
The point that she doesn't understand is that many hours in a giving day, the grid is sub utilized - maybe during the day in winter, overnight during summer. What is going to happen is that electricity companies are going to incentivize take some control to the charge hours of the cars with reducing electric bills. Like you set your car to be 80% at 8am every day and the electricity companies will intelligently charge your car. The vast majority of people will do that. Do you need a charge right now? No problem, you are going to pay the normal rate. HVAC (in US) is way more problematic, because everybody turns that on at the same time (hottest time of the day). The power companies figured that out.
She also makes it sound like increasing the growth rate by 20% is a lot. It isn't. Instead of gowthing by 2%, it needs to grow by 2.4%. Growth rates in the past have been much bigger than this. The way she presents the data makes it sound way worse than it actually is.
Sure but this will only do so much. Do you really think that the institutions who say that the grid upgrade is necessary don't know that?
Will the vast majority of people have their own parking spot with a charger, so that their car is plugged in when it's convenient for the grid to charge the car?
@@SabineHossenfelder Demand following will make a huge difference since it can significantly reduce the impact of unusual events where the sun and the wind both are unavailable. If you predict this and then turn off some factories and stop charging cars for a day, you significantly reduce the battery storage required. This already happens to some extent.
The people/businesses who are willing to do this will get cheaper electricity, and the rest will pay a premium for the infrastructure.
@@SabineHossenfelder If the institution is the IEA then they probably don't know that. Look at the IEA's PV increase predictions for the past 20 years. For most of those years they forecasted that PV installations would fall the next year. PV installation rose every year. [edit] I found a source with the IEA PV production forecast from 2022. In 2022 IEA forecast that PV production would reach 180 GW in 2035. It reached 224 GW in 2023. It 2 years to reach IEA's 15 year forecast. To see the source google "iea-forecasts-wrong-again"
Gasoline doesn't smell as good as it did when it was leaded. LOL
I have said the same thing. Modern petrol is more acrid smelling. On the other hand, I don't miss TEL.
My only issues that changed my mind is battery replacement costs and thermal runaway
The main issue with the National Grid is it cost 9p per kilowatt to transport electric round.
As without taxes, you can produce electricity for 3p a kilowatt at the solar farm.
When we buy electricity in the UK, we probably pay 30p a kilowatt at our home
There has to be a way we can buy electricity more locally. Maybe the new 1000 mile car that charges In 10 minutes.
It’s still possible to achieve the goal as stated by the government. It will just require a shift in the thought processes.
Hybrids have the issue that the battery is charged full and depleted much more often than a full EV that mostly is used between 10%90% which causes a lot more wear on the hybrid batteries compared to the EV batteries that doesn't loose capacity nearly as fast as the hybrid ones.
Hybrids are engineerd to be stupid with their batteries.
My wife's Chevy Volt has 110,000 miles on it and the battery is still doing great and the ICE engine has barely more than 30,000 miles on it. This car is going to last for a while.
Exactly. And it doesn't help that a lot of the older hybrids have old battery technology that doesn't age well
?? No, that's backwards. The problem with batteries is that unless you charge and discharge them completely they will develop hysteresis and they'll end up not being able to take a full charge. This is commonly seen on laptop batteries, phone batteries, etc. where when they are new they last a long time but if you don't stick to a rigid schedule of waiting until the device is almost dead to charge it, and then charging it completely, then the time between charges gets shorter and shorter.
@@artiefischel2579 That depends on the battery chemistry. Fully discharging and charging lithium Ion reduces it's life expectancy. Nickel Metal batteries behave as you described, as do NiCad's, though not for the reason you think, (see battery memory effect) and they can be "reset" through full charge/discharge cycles. Lithium Ion batteries do not work this way. When you fully discharge Lithium batteries the instance of corrosion on the cells accelerates when below 20% capacity, and when charging above 80%.
The Toyota Prius is still the king of hybrids. Never had any issues with it and the fuel economy is excellent.
I have an MG ZS EV. when I first started charging it cost me more than a combustion engine, and kept running out of charge. Three months on, I can work for 12 hours and still have 50% battery. The cost of charging is now about 352 miles for less than £10. You just have to understand the capabilities of the car.
And the “electric continuous variable transmission” is a thing of mechanical simplicity and elegance where 1 + 1 is something like 1.2 ! But EV advocates don’t understand that, but that is to be expected.
@@Mentaculus42 Instead of boasting about your superior intelligence, can you explain the pros and cons of this component? This comment just makes you sound like a manual transmission elitist.
and now having their peak, sales slowly start to decline because EVs are getting cheaper and better.
We will never fully electrify in Australia. We have no bullet train and have huge distances between our towns and cities.
The UK National Grid disagrees with you regarding requirements to upgrade grid. The LED lightbulb has lead to spare capacity. The other mitigation is that oil refineries consume large amounts of electricity.
So I understand that Electric Cars ARE STILL the Future, but with challenges in the transition.
Probably, yes. I guess it will depend on how the cost of synthetic fuel and batteries develops.
@@SabineHossenfelder Thanks for responding,, Sabine. I truly enjoy your videos and hope to see you lecturing in Vancouver, BC!
My feeling is that sodium ion batteries will take over for EVs, but battery tech is improving and getting cheaper at a breakneck pace, so who knows Lol. Respectfully, Sebastien
@@SabineHossenfelderSynthetic fuels have a massive cost problem relative to pure electric. First, you have efficiency loss in production. Even a high efficiency process is likely only 50% efficient (25% is probably more realistic). So it takes 2-4 units of electric energy for one unit of fuel energy. After that, combustion engines/drivetrains are seriously inefficient - less than 20% of the energy burned turns to motion in practice. The rest is waste heat, driving the compression cycle, etc. EV drivetrains are over 80% efficient in practice. (A gallon of gasoline is about 35kWh of energy; a typical EV has the energy storage of about two gallons, so you really see the efficiency difference.) So we’re looking at 8-16x more electric consumption for a synthetic-fueled combustion car, relative to an EV. And, if your synthetic fuel is anything but gasoline, then it won’t work in most existing cars or in the existing fueling stations or distribution network. You need new cars, new storage, new distribution, all of which are going to be more complex and expensive than the problems of expanding EVs.
I think there will be a future for synthetic fuels at small scale, in classic cars and things like aircraft that are hard to electrify. But for normal purpose cars and trucks, they’re terrible compared to just going electric.
@@SabineHossenfelder the cost of synthetic fuel will be too expensive and EVs are getting 1000...1500€ cheaper and better every year.
@@SabineHossenfelder Why investing 5 (6? 7?) times the engery to get synthetic fuel and burn it instead of driving with this energy?
I feel the true hard social/economic problems to solve, are the ones that doesn't allow local market gradient descent to solve the problem. In this case, the density of charging station need to reach a threshold before a phase transition where people start to overwhelmingly prefer EV. Before this transition, increasing the number of charging station is an uphill battle not solvable by gradient descent.
I don't feel the grid problem is hard to solve. When more people buy EV and the demand of electricity increases, the grid should be able to improve to adapt this local change. The local market forces should allow a gradient descent that adapt to increase of demand.
In contrast, when the density of charging station is low (roughly speaking), no more people would want to buy EV...so there is no further incentive to increase charging station. This is a situation where one needs to put large upfront investment to increase the density of charging station (beyond current demand) over a critical threshold before the bulk of population start to transition to EV. This large up front investment is fighting an uphill battle against local market forces. This is the hard part, I think.
I'm no expert whatsoever on EV...so I can easily be wrong by the way.
Where I am, charging at a charging station is more expensive than gas. They have scheduled price increases, over the next few years, to help compensate for all the new demand. What you’re saying (the gradient decent) can only work without corrupt local governments supporting monopolies.
The way forward is not extend the grid but reduce the distance between producer en consumer
Great video. She listed the current barriers so we can work on fixing them.
in norway 1/4 of all cars are elektric: they have no problem with the grid.!!!!!!
Look at the map... hydro power everywhere over there.
@@czarekcz1097 ok? then let's just install more hydro lol (even tho I think solar/wind is better)
@@reweiv Hydro works if you have the mountains and water, otherwise, solar, wind and even nuclear power is better. Oil and gas will run out, and we will have to come up with sustainable replacements, and electric cars are the best option. Hydrogen power don't make any sense.
All cars heavily subsidized by oil money. Else no one could afford them.
@@lamaistul And who pays for fuel? I thought consumer! Are you suggesting we are subsidizing ourselves? Then I have no issue with it!
The extra cost of the electric grid will come from the people charging their BEV cars. For example, I charge my car at night (which puts absolutely zero extra load on the grid) and I pay an extra $60 per month to my power bill. Multiply this by a few million BEV cars and there will be plenty of money to upgrade the grid.
"absolutely zero extra load on the grid"
Best laugh I've had all day.
until 50 mln cars do exactly the same and then we can talk about loads.
If everyone recharged their car at night, (which they don't) then it will be actually quite beneficial for the grid, since demand is overall low at night, the industries are shut down and everyone sleeps.
@@joesterling4299 What he means is that he doesn't add any more PEAK load to the grid. EVs don't need to charge at peak time. Some people might do it anyway, but power companies and consumers both will have a massive incentive to install smart meters at EV owner's houses, so that they can offer discounts at off-peak times.
And EVs still don't pay for the roads EVs are using. The tax is coming so EVs will look even less appealing.
584B for Europe is divided by 27 countries is 22B per country and is spread out over a few years. In theory 🙈
Sadly that money had to come higher taxes or other social programs in a citizens that are already over taxed.
That little clip of Buster Keaton's car falling apart is solid gold -
Most EV's are charged overnight, so how is the grid going to not cope with that? Since EV's are a good idea, I suggest we keep buying them, and if the Grid gets close to being overwhelmed, then we talk about Hybrids. EV's are also good for trade balances and economic security, since there is no need to import oil from abroad for them.
Canada has lots of oil....
Most people would plug in when they get home from work. You’d have to have big financial incentives for people to accept the loss of freedom to choose when to charge.
@@pdblouinThe cars are smart and can set times to charge. Also you could do this on the charger side, smart home tech exists.
My utility has a great overnight rate for changing the EV
@@playlist5455Exactly what I was going to reply with 👍. It seems many do not know that the vehicles can charge themselves based on when electricity costs are lowest in the day(which is same as when most extra electrical capacity is available)
@@jonjoe42 If I'm a customer with flat rate electricity, why should I choose to charge at night? What if something happens and I need to drive NOW, and the car hasn't charged yet? Again, just saying you will need big financial incentives to get people to do this willingly.
Connecting renewables to the grid is indeed a headache, but electric cars are not the problem for three reasons (1) some people with electric cars will have rooftop solar panels (2) cars will mostly be charged overnight when grid demand is low (3) domestic electricity use has been decreasing thanks to new efficiencies such as LED lighting. This means there is spare capacity. Hybrid cars are a very poor option for several reasons and will hopefully not be popular, but it depends how fast charging infrastructure is built out.
(4) How about we altogether cut back on wasteful unnecessary commuting. Plenty of people can work remotely. Stay home.
Thanks Sabine. The power grid is only one of the issues facing battery cars. Another is the production and cost of the batteries themselves, which are also resource-intensive and come with geopolitical problems of their own. Plug-in hybrids allow 10 times as many people to buy a hybrid, and since most drivers travel less than 30 miles per day, the engine will rarely run on gasoline, but it will be there when needed.
ICE and hybrids are also resource intensive and come with geopolitical problems. LFP batteries are reducing the issues that you mentioned. All technologies have their footprint. The key is to minimize the overall footprint and risk which appears to be the adoption of BEV technology. LFP and MNC are also recyclable. Most materials for batteries will come from recycled sources by 2050.
Wow! Ive been called all kinds of names for telling people to buy hybrids and im an electrical engineer
I’m sorry Sabine, you are so wrong; most charging, here in the UK, is off peak when there is a lot of surplus electricity.
Smoothbrain
Electricity usage at night is roughly 20% less than during the day according to reports. It takes 18kwh for 100km range. A household uses roughly 30kwh. There is at night 6kwh used less than during the day.
I believe that you see the issue, if every household gets an EV, theoretically. In Germany they have already discussed about reducing the charging rates to lower the chance or overloading the grid, it's a joke really.
And if everyone changes to EVs and charges their cars overnight you now have an overnight surge in electricity consumption.
Not to mention that the sheer load on the grid is well beyond the capacity of the grid to actually supply currently.
Is Sabina being sarcastic the whole way through?
Her argument is "I can't see this is going in the right direction, so let's forget about the climate science".
WTF?
If we can't charge all the cars we have, then there'll have to be fewer cars.
Or we could just crash and burn as Sabina implicitly imply ¯\_ (ツ) _/¯
Cool so we can remove all the chargers on the highway and next to parking spaces! You are a genius Michael! Anyway you need to lay down 5 times more copper in the ground for the whole energy transition. But it's much more complicated than just that though.
In the UK, the National Grid keep saying that the grid can cope and I don't see any reason to disbelieve them. The UK has new international interconnector too. This spreads the load. In the UK about 25% of all electricity generated is used to refine and move fossil fuels so there's a lot of power for nothing as we reduce fossil fuel use. Also 40% of all large shipping is moving fossil fuels.
Much of the planning is to cover the highest peak of power needs, but that can be smoothed out as is already happening. The best way to charge a car is at home, at night. That is when electricity is currently over supplied - the wind still blows in the North Sea. This no only leads to very cheap charging but spreads energy use to lower the peaks.
Have a word with Greg Jackson at Octopus Energy, he knows the real picture, not the FUD spread by BigOil.
"Have a word with Greg Jackson at Octopus Energy, he knows the real picture, not the FUD spread by BigOil."
That's good for the UK.
It won't work in the US.
The idiots in charge of the grid, refuse to invest in necessary upgrades.
Rather than spending a portion of the monthly bill customers pay, they are waiting to get funded by taxpayer dollars so they can keep their higher profits and keep pretending that they are doing a good job.
It also doesn't help that some State governments have mandated a percentage of solar and wind energy and have not mandated grid upgrades.
Thank you for that insightful post! I had no idea that so much power was used to refine fossil fuel, that is ludicrous.
In Italy too the grid operator has always maintained that they see no particular trouble ahead about upgrading the grid for mass adoption of EVs. As far as I understand, it will be a minuscule tweak compared to what was done in the years of rapid post-war industrialization.
You think everyone will be able to charge a car overnight "night" on a calm day...Not a chance in hell.
In the UK,the National Grid is digging tunnels to accommodate the cables, removing the pillons running around the country. In the cities, the car is being discouraged by restricting it to main roads. You would have noticed that your satnav never takes you through a residential road if a main road is available. Tower blocks no longer have parking bays, and street parking is at a premium. The charging points on lampposts only have 3.5kWh with a 2 hour time limit. To own an electric car you need a driveway with a charging point. If not, then the cost per mile is almost double that of fossil fuel, as well as the pleasure of sitting in your car for at least one hour while it charges.
There is no profit in charging points compared to petrol stations. For example, one car can take 5 minutes to fill up and go, £70. 12 cars *£70=£840per hour. An EV takes one hour for a reasonable charge, £50. What company in its right mind will want to earn £50 per hour.
If companies cannot turn a profit then the infrastructure can never bear fruitition. Building the grid is one thing. Finding companies to bear the extremely low profit margin is another.
Finland's arctic cold and low pop. density may be an outflyer but we need cars too! Hybrids burning e-hydrocarbons seem perfect.
My guess is that this won't be lightswitch and I hope the press don't suggest it is, it will be a journey, consumer demand, supporting infrastructure, ability to upcycle as technology advances. One thing is for certain, the tech today will not be the tech in a few short years, I agree that hybrid is a good stop gap. Thanks for the overview
The Aptera Solar ev is a good solution for this problem. It is super efficient and gets 10 miles per kWh, almost 3 times what other EVs get! The 700w on board Solar charges up to 40 miles per day which is more than the average commute for both the EU and USA. You can charge around 150 miles overnight on a 110v outlet. The car is now in preproduction and should be available early next year.
Sabine, let's just switch to bicycles.
Especially for long distances with heavy cargo.
Didn't you hear the news? Europe's warming happens twice as fast as the rest of the world, they say.
No bicycle is offered with an air condition option.
And i can tell you from own experience, as soon as air temperature in the shadow reaches 41°C, which already happened several times around here, biking is no fun any more, since the wind is feverish hot already.
You do that, we prefer to be able to travel BEYOND our cities.
@@werner.x tell me where you live, i want to move there
@@werner.x you are allowed to use electric bikes. The wind will cool you sufficiently when you don't have to put much power into the pedals yourself.
What about the strip mining in the 3rd world for the batteries. Is that good for the environment?
The transition from horse to gasoline cars was also not possible because the gas stations infrastructure was not in place and was very expensive. That is why we all still ride horses. 😂
Dear Sabine, the solution is to steer charging to the night, there is over capacity (wind energy at night is being sold at negative price), if the bulk of people charge at night no problem. Especially if you convert light pole’s to include a charger … in villages that would make the issue of people that have no own property none existent … so a little steering adjustment and the EV transitions has zero issues, pretty disappointed you could no come up with it yourself …
The electric grid is quite fragile. It would be relatively trivial for malicious agents to disable parts or all of it. If a large-scale war happens with China, they will likely attempt that, or at least threaten to, as they already have China-sourced equipment in our grid and thousands of agents in our borders.
How much worse it would be then if also our entire transportation infrastructure would be unusable if the grid went down. At least gas and diesel fuel can sit in tanks and be manually pumped, allowing vehicles to travel hundreds and thousands of miles without the grid working. Imagine not being able to deliver food to cities because the delivery vehicles can't be charged. It would be utterly foolish of us to make ourselves even more vulnerable to such attacks.
@@blahblah49000 Its not as fragile as all that. Besides, what kind of alternative do think gasoline represents? Not any, really. Pretty much everything we do in life depends on electricity. You won't be driving to the supermarket or your place of work if the electricity is out at those destinations now will you!
Gasoline distribution infrastructure also depends heavily on electricity. It isn't just a matter of a gas station having a backup generator to make the pumps work.
Depending on electricity is not actually a problem. People have the same alternatives dealing with disasters with electricity as they did with other fuel sources. More, even, when you can generate it yourself on top of everything else.
Yeah, my opinion of Sabine is dropping. With V2G it won't be long until you will be *paid* to connect your EV to a bidirectional charger to provide grid stability.
@@zen1647 V2G isn't going to really be a thing for ... well, quite a while. For EVs with NMC batteries, it might never make sense to do. It only really makes sense to do it with EVs that have LFP batteries. That is of course because the LFP chemistry has 4x the cycle life of NMC. That's one problem.
A second problem is just straight-out the fact that it is unlikely that more than a small percentage of EV owners will make the investment required to actually do V2G. Only a modest percentage of EV owners with driveways now have 50A circuits connected up to their EVSEs. An even smaller percentage are going to replace their EVSEs with two-way EVSEs, and an even smaller percentage will have vehicles with LFP batteries that have V2G enabled.
V2G is fun to think about and some people wil be able to do it, but its impact on the grid is going to take probably 10-15 years to actually develop into something useful.
Instead of steering to this communist nightmare, maybe we should control population growth instead.
Sabine’s oil industry overlords commanded that she post this video again.
Your Chinese terror regime E-mafia bosses commanded you otherwise.
You don't really beed a power station in your town, you plug your electric can in at your place over night and it's full and ready to go in the morning.
The grid was fine in the US when everyone started to install AC in houses/Building/etc. Those are energy intense appliances and yet the grid grew to take care of that. With EV I just program mine to charge early in the morning so it’s ready when I leave.
There's still rolling blackouts on days with heat waves.
"you should bookmark this video"... 🙂
I'm just relieved to find out I was not imagining I had seen this before.
My bookmark stopped working, though. Now the dates are all wrong! What a mess 🙂
In Minnesota the state is going 100% green in a few years. For 3 months there's only 6 hours of good sunlight for solar panels. And it can get -25°F during those months. Hope people buy a nice warm blanket for their EV and most importantly, their body.
Don't worry, I'm sure Minnesota can implement California's method of power generation. Go "green" locally, then import the inevitable shortfall from out of state. Best yet, it means it's "all those other states" who are producing the CO2.
@Keldor314 Nope. Minnesota passed a law making it illegal to import any "fossil fuel" from outside the state border. Green energy might work closer to the equator, but will never work in Northern climates.
@@johnvincent4048 Well, maybe Minnesota can can follow the footsteps of parts of western Europe and suggest that people start using firewood to help with the heating. You have a decent amount of northern forest around, right? Well, for the moment, anyway.
The most infuriating part about all this is that we do in fact have serious long term problems. Fossil fuels are finite, wilderness is finite. But all we hear is panic over CO2 and this virtue signaling push into half baked initiatives that are quite frankly more likely to make the problem worse than better.
Gonna have to upgrade grid for all the data centers being put in anyway. Those things pull massive amounts of energy.
This argument seems to be, let's keep burning fossil fuel in combustion engines.
You can call them hybrid cars if you want, but they are still irrevocably tied to the fossil fuel industry and a total reliance of fuel burning technology.
Hybrid cars are petrol cars with a lot of extra, complex, heavy technology strapped to them.
Brilliant technological step during the 2000's and the first step away from 100% reliance of inefficient fuel burning combustion engines.
Now. A dormant and pointless technology.
Hossenfelder lists of strings of huge numbers related to how much grid expansion is needed in the next 20 to 30 years. It's billions. She did, as always, entirely ignore the amount of money leaving the EU to pay for importing liquid hydrocarbons to burn in these hybrids.
According to Statista, in 2022 the EU burned 18.7 million barrels of oil a day, which at current oil prices of $88 a barrel, is one billion six hundred forty-five million dollars a day. Every day.
But you know, carry on pushing fuel burning combustion vehicles, Germany's economy is built around the combustion car industry, they make very good cars.
Guess what....
Electric vehicles still rely heavily on "fossil fuels."
The quality of those cars is debatable. The cost to repair/maintain BMW or Mercedes is considerably more than a tesla
How much grid expansion is needed? Cost?
What about electricity production capacity? For now EU is struggling to force fossils out of electricity production to cover CURRENT ELECTRICITY needs but you are talking about moving away from fossils in all energy sector? It is crazy as it would take not even 10 times more renewable production but closer to 30 times more. It is impossible in the next several decades regardless.
In Australia, cars contribute to less than 10% of the total carbon emissions. I assume it's similar in the rest of the world. Seems quite ridiculous that so much mental energy is dedicated to 10% of the problem.
@@MrElvis1971 Worldwide, ground transport vehicles amount to about half the emissions, so yes it is a huge factor.
Personally I have no faith in Hybrid vihecles. Studies have shown that people who buy hybrid vihecles, use them as petrol vihecles (or diesel), and not as hybrid solutions in reality. It's far too easy to fall back into old habits with them, and they thus pollute just as much as a vihecle that wasn't hybrid at all. In theory they'd work, but in practice they tend not to.
We can wonder why these people bought pricey Hybrid's in the first place. Usually they should drive in electric mode when possible to reduce fuel cost.
@@Bob-1802 But realistically speaking, they don't when actually studied. They just use them as petrol cars.
@@Bob-1802 Companies buy them because of subsidies, and give fuel card to the employees, who won't charge therefore.
The idea of a hybrid is to get really really good gas mileage while not suffering the substantial downside of an EV. They do this just fine.
If you do have a house or some other way to plug your car in overnight, then electricity is actually way better - you basically never have to go to the gas station or even worry about it. You only need charging if you're going on long road trips.
"Gasoline smells good"? What gasoline are you smelling?
Avoid inhaling gas as it can lead to addiction and pose serious health risks.
in my small test group about a half likes the gasoline smell and the other one likes spray-paint smell. these two groups don't overlap.
Most rich people stay rich by spending like the poor and investing without stopping then most poor people stay poor by spending like the rich yet not investing like the rich but impressing them
People prefer to spend money on liabilities, Rather than investing in assets and be very profitable
You are so correct! Save, invest and spend for necessities and a few small luxuries relatives to one's total assets ratio.
Sounds good😊How do you do that? I'm interested, how do I go about getting started?
Wow that's nice She makes you that much!! please is there a way to reach her services, I work 3 jobs and trying to pay off my debts for a while now!! Please help me.
Sure! She engages on what's Apk using the digit
The way we can deal with the growth of EVs is to follow California's lead doing something called Valley Filling. The use of electric power cycles up and down significantly between night and day, leaving a valley of power use at night. In California for a long time now, EV buyers are asked (given) to use a special tariff that requires them to charge at night. There have been plenty of studies done on valley filling and I pretty that someone has estimated the number of EVs (kWh anyway) that can be accommodated by the valley.
You're doing this already. So the grid is already reaching max capacity. The pct of cars on the road that are EV in CA (not new sales) can't be much more than 5%. To reach something like 50% there will need to be a MASSIVE upgrade to the grid that will cost lots and lots of money not budgeted and that will take a long time to do. Especially in CA.
seems like a lot of guesswork based on the first year as a datapoint, in which electic cars struggle slightly
I hate when people make irrelevant comparisons off projections. And utilizing figures that would include every person charging electric car at the same time. It's just like saying everybody's gonna gas up their car at the same time. Come on, get your facts straight. Yes, at current levels, if everybody that had an electric car tried to charge their vehicles at the exact same time. Yeah, we'll mess up the grid, but the build out in the grid, the implementation of wind, solar and hydro that's being created all over the world at a rate that's unprecedented. How can we not meet those targets even by twenty thirty
because manufacturing and new devices besides EVs need that energy as well, so you're not just gonna make new power plants for EVs
@xerr0n the ev s will be themselves backup and yes more batteries and solar People don't realize that we're at the technological level that we could end everything bad that's happening, but we don't and people put out propaganda about ev s and electric is bad or worse but the real thing Is that you put a 1 billion dollars into solar panels and batteries. That's enough to cover a state, a country, the Providence. And smaller places would need even less On top of what we already have.
And if everybody does that all over the world, we won't need to use fossil fuels ever again
Meanwhile Norway is at 90% EV sales and even China is ramping up and EV sales are now at 50% market share.
It's all a big farce EVs will not change our needs for hydrocarbon Energy. You are a fool to believe any of this will help you in the future. It's no different when you talk about making everyone not keep their older ICE vehicles. It's all about MONEY, and none of that will be a benefit to you.
Norway is a population of 5 million and has massive natural reserves. Easy for Norway.
Norway uses oil money to subsidize electric cars. Big brain time.
Meanwhile China is building 2 coal plants per week. 😃
China is building COAL burning power plants to charge their EVs. Fast charging wastes most of the electricity!!!!
Thank you for mentioning people (like yourself) who don’t live in houses. How do you get charging stations in apartments or condos?
We would need 20% more capacity if all switched today. As comparison our grid grew about 20% in the last 20 years
Well, you're answering your own concerns, Sabine:
1:50 lots of renewable energy projects are close to being finished; not connected to the grid yet, but will be connected soon.
2:10 300 ~ 500 billion dollars is a lot of money, but this is between now and 2035, or 11 years. 40 billion dollars a year is not a big deal for the US, with many trillions in GDP, specially considering the result is modernizing the energy grid. I've seen many programs more expensive and less fruitful.
2:40 construction of chargers has picked up in recent years, yes; but the chargers Tesla makes are offset by the megapacks that Tesla makes and sells, helping reduce grid overload at peak hours; and you might ask, what about the others? The others will disappear, as the Tesla chargers are better, AND cheaper to make, AND their charging port, NACS, is well on its way to becoming the world standard. So, energy storage grows as chargers expand, and so do renewable energy sources.
2:50 the missing transformers, well, transformers will go away as we transition to a DC grid; but I agree with you that transformers are a concern in the medium term.
3:30 "bureaucracy", I'm with you 100% on that one.
4:00 ending of subsidies in Germany ... who cares? EV's are destiny; they do not need governmental help.
4:20 your little town has only one charger. Yep, that's a problem; but it is a known problem that is being addressed as fast as possible, which is actually pretty fast. Uh... You did not miss the fact that you could charge at home; did you?
4:40 the Nissan hybrid story: There's no question a hybrid is more convenient in a small town with a single charging station; that doesn't mean that hybrids are THE future. The problem with hybrids is that they are not even half way between a gas car and an EV in terms of energy efficiency. The average gas guzzler only uses 20% of the energy in the gas to propel the car between points A and B; the other 80% is spent heating the engine block, heating the exhaust, and heating brake-pads. Hybrids with regenerative braking avoid the latter, and are about 30% efficient. BEV's are about 85% efficient. Not to speak of the complexity of hybrids, it being roughly the sum of the complexities of ICE and BEV's. More parts to count in chance of failure calculations... More expensive repairs and maintenance...
Your "sky is falling" narrative also fails to specify if the problem is momentary watts or watt-hours per day. In terms of watt-hours per day we are very far from having a problem due to EV's. And if we did, perhaps the solution would be to clean up our energy waste, such as heating and air conditioning of buildings and houses with poor insulation. The only conceivable concern you might have is watts, which is only a problem at peak hours, when everybody gets home from work and cranks up the air conditioning, and turns on the stove. Tesla is solving more problems than it is making, by selling gazillions of Megapacks for energy storage around the world.
Frankly, I think you were approached by representatives of the oil industry, who offered you a ton of cash money in exchange for you changing your tune, and you surprisingly stupidly accepted. That's my honest feeling; but enjoy the money.
And, by the way, did you know that the energy produced by Tesla solar roofs sold, to date, exceeds not only the energy used by all Tesla cars on the road, but even the energy used to manufacture them? Where does that put all your drama about the grid not being upgraded fast enough?
First time I'm forced to hit *DIS-like* on a video of yours. Badly researched. Lacking in substance. No objective data. And, worst of all, *_dishonest_* ... because I KNOW you know better than this.
Hybrids are awful, you now have 2 power trains to maintain.
You might think that 2 powertrains gives you redundancy,
but 99% of the world has vehicle and emissions inspections that you will fail if your hybrid battery fails.
Not only that, but if you are using the hybrid properly (using the battery), the battery will wear out fast like a cell phone, because it's being fully cycled everyday.
This is objectively untrue. Even first-gen Toyota Priuses easily got 10+ years out of their battery.
@@mx2000 Should have clarified, I'm talking about plugin hybrids.
For comparison average 1 year battery degradation for some popular PHEVS: (all 2019 model year)
Prius Prime 2.3%, Pasifica 2.2%, Outlander 4.1%
And some real EV's:
Bolt 0.0%, Model 3 0.6%, leaf 0.8%
Pretty clear those PHEV batteries aren't going to last like the real EV's.