Market Stumbles Near The Edge of a CLIFF
HTML-код
- Опубликовано: 26 июн 2024
- Julius de Kempenaer shares a rare RRG rotational pattern that he's never seen before! He then follows up with a breakdown of the current sector rotation into offensive, defensive, and sensitive, and finds that only one sector is on a positive relative trajectory... which one would that be?
👀 See what better financial charting can do for you!
Start your FREE 1-month trial today at stockcharts.com
👍🏻 If you enjoyed this video be sure to hit the THUMBS UP
✅ If you found value, consider SUBSCRIBING to our channel and ring the bell so you never miss a new video! Subscribe Here: tinyurl.com/wvet7qj
00:00 - Welcome!
00:49 - Something I've NEVER seen before - Sector RRG
04:57 - Large Cap Cyclical Offensive Sectors (XLRE, XLY, XLB, XLF)
06:12 - Large Cap Defensive Sectors (XLU, XLP, XLV)
07:07 - Large Cap Sensitive Sectors (XLK, XLE, XLC, XLI)
09:05 - Price Charts: Materials (XLB), Communications (XLC), Energy (XLE)
11:21 - Financials (XLF), Industrials (XLI), Technology (XLK)
14:18 - Staples (XLP), Real Estate (XLRE), Utilities (XLU)
18:49 - Health Care (XLV), Discretionary (XLY)
20:19 - Conclusions
👍🏻 FOLLOW US
Twitter: @StockCharts : tinyurl.com/tt7429e
@StockChartsTV : / stockchartstv
Facebook: tinyurl.com/w2fsb42
LinkedIn tinyurl.com/t7u9568
#stockcharts #rrg #juliusdekempenaer
@StockChartsTV @CNBC @markets
❗️DISCLAIMER
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither the Show Participants
nor StockCharts.com guarantee any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment discussed on the show.
Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value.
Investments or strategies mentioned in this show may not be suitable for you and
you should make your own independent decision regarding them. This material
does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation
or needs and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for you.
You should strongly consider seeking advice from your own investment advisor
-----
ℹ️ ABOUT STOCKCHARTS
StockCharts.com is the world's leading technical analysis and financial charting platform. Trusted by millions of online investors around the world, the company has been an industry leader in the financial technology space for more than two decades. With innovative, award-winning charting and analysis tools, our mission is to help you better analyze the markets, monitor and manage your portfolios, find promising new stocks and funds to buy, and ultimately make smarter investment decisions.
ℹ️ ABOUT STOCKCHARTS TV
StockCharts TV is devoted exclusively to financial charting and market analysis from the web's top technical experts. With a constant stream of technical charting-focused content, there's always something insightful, educational and entertaining to watch on the channel. 
Хобби
![NOSFERATU - Official Teaser Trailer [HD] - Only In Theaters December 25](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/b59rxDB_JRg/mqdefault.jpg)
👀 See what better financial charting can do for you!
Start your FREE 1-month trial today at stockcharts.com
👍🏻 If you enjoyed this video be sure to hit the THUMBS UP
✅ If you found value, consider SUBSCRIBING to our channel and ring the bell so you never miss a new video! Subscribe Here: tinyurl.com/wvet7qj
I just want to thank you for your clear and good opinion, please go on like this. You are one of the few people I listen to.
Thank you, It's my pleasure.
Thanks for continuing to call this out. The market has been seriously unbalanced since at least since March and just seems to be getting worse. Would love to see an analysis of how many companies in XLK are actually accounting for that outperformance. My guess is it’s no more than a handful.
Great minds ... it's funny. I literally just published a new blog article that looks at these metrics. The answer to your question is 72% of stocks inside XLK are trading above their 50-day Exp Mov Avg. So more than a handful but it is by a mile the highest number of all sectors.
I've been seeing the whole "this time is different' all over again. It never really is.... Yes, AI is a revolution unlike any other but downturns, or at least sizable pullbacks start with the relative weakness you're referring here. Thanks Julius.... you're the real deal
Side note, I went to Maastricht the other day and loved it! Such a cool place.....
"This Time Is Different" are the most dangerous/expensive words in finance. Famous quote from Sir John Templeton. I use it all the time.
Maastricht is a great city, especially in the summer when you can sit on a terrace overlooking the river and have a cappuccino or a beer, depending on the time of day. AT least for me, as I also see people having a large beer while I am still on my first coffee 🙈
I think you should consider using a different index for checking the relative strength. The S&P is dominated by the large tech stocks that are doing very well as you point out. The equal-weight S&P or the VTI total stock market are candidates. This would give relative strength to the market in general. Actually I sometimes use MINT that is a short-maturity income fund that is yielding 5.2% now. Thanks for your valuable RRG approach.
Certainly he uses the $ONE in some instances to make a fair comparisons between tickers/instruments. In this rally the large cap high liquidity stocks had been money therefore it is still an appropriate benchmark for stocks. I agree that for a complete understanding of leadership, another benchmark can be used.
RSI for SPY is 77 and 81 for QQQ.
Thanks. I compare the various indices quite regularly. I then try to look for differences in behavior to assess where the leadership is coming from.
stockcharts.com/articles/rrg/2024/05/diverging-tails-on-this-relati-650.html
@@rrgresearch9726 please look into the XLK market cap adjustment they are pursuing to reduce AAPL and MSFT to make room for NVDA allocation adjustments
Eric Pachman does a deep dive into sector strength and the healthcare sector in particular with a revolutionary approach. His insights bring further light to what is actually going on in this new economy. The two of you should get to know each other.
I had a quick look at their site. It's not directly related to (stock) markets, but it looks very interesting!
Another critically important assessment. Truly invaluable information.
Thank you.
Thanks for keeping an eye on this. Worth watching for sure.
You are welcome.
Thanks for another great analysis; agreed XLRE looks very interesting
Much appreciated. I sure hope it can stand its ground against all the large/tech dominance
Thank you, great update, really like you cliff analogy, we don’t have to fall but the more time we spend waltzing along the edge the higher the probability
You gotta be careful, no smooth sailing in nose bleed area.
Weakness detected, good warning , thank you explaining the situation in detail. Time to prepare increasing cash?!
At least prepare!!
QQEW was up as much as QQQ was! So we see broadening out begin with the other tech stocks. This seems very interesting to me and I wonder what you think about this 🧐
Mmmm I don't see that. Maybe for a day, maybe two. But the trend is most definitely in favor of QQQ over QQEW
schrts.co/HtqYCpxH
Great Video. I think your RRG graohic is such a useful way to judge how the sectors are acting. I use it often.
Thank you and great to hear you brought RRG into your workflow.
Julius always nice to watch your updates! I am thinking that stocks leadership is narrow and for CANSLIM practitioners we focus on high relative strength and strong growth fundamentals stocks, so if you can check in this theme in one of your next videos it would be nice, you can take for example stocks from the FFTY ETF and benchmark them…then narrow down to what sectors and market cap they belong to, as they are to stocks they fit well in the RRG tool
Thx for watching and thx for the suggestion. Let me see if I can find the data for that and bring it into the mix.
This was great information.. bedankt Julius 🙏
Dankjewel en graag gedaan
Thank you so much, Julius, for these important insights!
You are very welcome.
ARM is selected to be in the Nasdaq 100 or QQQ. Apple and Arm will announce earnings on 8/1 and 8/2, respectively. This pair and other AI companies will keep XLK high for a little longer...
September and October are the worst pair of months.
Timing is the essence
GL
Gonna be interesting to see where we are two weeks from now when this happens and if AAPL and maybe ARM will be strong enough to carry all that weight.
Enjoyed the RRG information. I review the ETF's daily for price action and red or green, but haven't paid as much attention to this kind of comparison. Thank you for a great learning session.
Thanks for using RRGs; there are so many more ways to use RRG and get different insights than just tracking the rotations through the quadrants.
Utilities are no longer thought to be defensive since they are experiencing increased demand for electricity due to AI investments and data centers.
Yep, that's the story, and I am happy to go along with that, but even when I use a rolling BETA metric as an indicator of offensive or defensive behavior, Utilities still come out as very defensive.
When you see a train coming down the track's it's okay to step off the rails.
Hahaha, LoL. I love that one. It is certainly better than acting like a deer and just staring into the headlights.
There's a similar statement from Reminiscences of a stock operator.
Is there a basic beginner video that explains what the relative rotation graph is showing? What the axis / quadrants are and how they are calculated.
Thanks
There is! Julius made an RRG 101 video some years back. You can watch it here: ruclips.net/video/TW0Q0lyGIEc/видео.html
@@StockChartsTV thank you!
Great content as always, Julius!
Just an off question
What are those RRG US SECTORS EMA200/50/20 lists on 6:13 ?
I think I remember you showing it one time long ago, but I don't remember when and what they are (benchmark, logic, etc.)
Have a great week
Thank you. These indicators track the percentage of stocks above their 20-, 50-, and 200-day exponential moving average. I just finished a blog article referring to those as well.
@@rrgresearch9726 Perfect!
Thank you Julius!
The strength of the mega cap technology names is perverting the usefulness of the RSI. I would put the RSI on the shelf. QQQ and the SPY are dominated by the mega cap AI influence. Its a new world, AI theme is sucking money out of every sector.
I am not using RSI anywhere ..... RRG has nothing to do with RSI, it is all about (comparative) relative performance.
Inversed 3X funds are recommended as they are in trash mode. The overall market is 64K question as PPT will pump them until they can not. Bank of Japan owns 90% of the stocks, so can every other central banks. TA can make a lot of senses for instant crash based on PE, debt ratios etc. The blind side is this departure of gold standard makes all convenience to print trillions without any restriction. Just keep majority with food and water first, then move other super rich to live on other planets
I don’t think people realize how many sectors will be replaced or reduced by Ai. I feel investors see the writing on the wall. Many many people will be unemployed soon. And people won’t be able to pay for mortgages, consumer goods etc…when they are down sized. If energy spikes, that will plug the economy into a recession soon or later.
It doesn’t matter what people realize or not, in the stock market what matters is where the money if flowing to