HUGE Changes are Happening in the US Housing Market
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- Опубликовано: 22 май 2024
- HUGE changes are happening right now in the United States housing market. For example, as of last week, there’s 20% more homes for sale compared to a year ago. That marks the biggest year-over-year increase since May 2023. The rise of housing inventory is likely from 1) weakending homebuyer demand and 2) a significant rise in the number of newly listed homes (i.e. for the week ended 3/2/24, the number of new listings posted the biggest YOY increase since May 2021). Even though more homeowners are deciding to list their homes for sale, housing inventory (i.e. the TOTAL number of homes for sale nationwide) is still down 39% from 2019.
Additionally, even though average 30-year fixed mortgage rates have been at or above 6% since September 2022 (per the Mortgage News Daily), the US median sold price has increased by 5% from a year ago (data from Redfin).
In today’s video, I share my own analysis based on the latest real estate market data from Realtor.com and Altos Research and the impacts that these trends could have on our US housing market in the weeks and months ahead. Enjoy! Subscribe, share and Like!
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Compilation of Housing Market Forecast videos:
• Housing Market Predict...
Source of reports I shared:
www.realtor.com/research/week...
www.realtor.com/research/data/
altosresearch.com/
www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mor...
www.redfin.com/news/data-center/
www.realtor.com/research/febr...
To give you a quick mortgage interest rates update, according to the Mortgage News Daily the average 30yr fixed mortgage rate is around 6.9% for the current mortgage rates (at the time of filming this video for those with excellent credit).
Comment below: what’s your housing market forecast? Do you think a housing crash will happen or are your housing market predictions that the real estate market and home prices will continue to surge?
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Jason Walter, CPA (inactive CPA lic 103885)
Sacramento real estate agent and native (DRE 01923240)
Mortgage Loan Officer, NMLS #2566691
Revest Homes (DRE #02174879, NMLS 2362319)
jason@meetjasonwalter.com
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Disclaimer:
Jason Walter is not a practicing tax accountant or a licensed attorney or financial adviser. Therefore, the information in these videos shall not be relied upon as tax, legal, or financial advice from a qualified perspective. If you need such advice, please contact a qualified tax accountant, attorney, or financial adviser. We have taken reasonable steps to check that the information in this video is accurate but we cannot represent that it is free from errors. You expressly agree not to rely upon any information contained in this video - it is for entertainment purposes only.
This video description may contain affiliate links that allow you to easily find the items mentioned in my videos as well as support the channel at no cost to you. Thank you for your support! Jason Walter is a licensed real estate agent and mortgage loan originator with Revest Homes in California (DRE #02174879, NMLS 2362319).
#mortgagerates #housingmarket #Realtor 
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As a homeowner, I don’t want a crazy high valuation of my home because then I have to pay a property tax level that I can’t afford. I bought a house to live in, not a short term investment to flip.
Well said
That’s on purpose my friend.
As an owner that just wants to live in peace. lower valuation is music to my ears. People didn't seem to understand, if prices are lower means your buying power will be higher.
Exactly…taxes are crazy high
Luckily in California we have a cap on how much our property taxes can go up thanks to Prop 13.
I thought from your photo that prices increased 35%! Wow more homes on the market. That’s great!
House prices are so ridiculous right now😮
@LesHom Mr. Bonkers thinks that writing one low ball offer a year makes a "serious buyer" out of someone. 🤣
Aren’t you glad you waited
@@ReeLSpirit People like you make me root for the market to crash. Nobody will cry for your family when you’re upside down on your 745k house with a 7% interest rate. And don’t try to pretend you got in before the market went up, you didn’t and we don’t believe you if you say you did.
@@ReeLSpirit Who are you even talking to?
and the houses in Tucson continue to sell very quickly, I see the houses that I like and they are immediately in pending. As long as they continue to sell, I don't think they will go down for many years. its crazy
The pain will be unbearable 😢
Thank you Jason for your statistical insight. Glad your back!
My pleasure!
Good you doing the summery.
Tons of info. Thanks.
Thank you for watching
Thank you Jason, I always appreciate your videos
Welcome news. Thanks for doing the work and sharing.
You bet
Thank you Jason. Seems like inventory is on an up swing which is good for potential buys because it provides for more options at various prices, and competition between sellers.
Thank you for the updates we appreciate
You bet!
You are Maximus, great well presented analysis. Thank you for educating us.
Thank you kindly, Jose.
Good morning Jason. Looking forward to another informative video.
More to come! Thank you!
Thanks for the informative video Jason. I don’t live anywhere near you, but I follow you because you are one of the few out there who post videos with facts and data.
Awesome! Thank you!
Thanks Jason!1 You are awesome.☺
You too!
You save so much of my time , when these data sets come out.
Good for you sir!!!
Thanks for the insights!
You bet!
Mahalo Great update. 🌴🤙🏽🍍🍍
I think some areas is true for this, but for Los Angeles area there is literally no inventory. These past 2 weeks no new houses have come up for sale.
In the Boston metro, it hasn't changed much and people are still overpaying because single families aren't hitting the market fast enough. I'm in a weird spot and not sure if I should continue my rent or maybe buy a small condo and continue to save up
CPI data came in hot (no surprise)! “Rate Bros” are mad.
That 2-Mar-24 line with 19.9% rise in active listings, 17.4% in new listings, and price reductions of 31.9% is quite significant.
Inflation just came in at 3.2% annualized and there’s a rising belief the Fed will continue to hold off on lowering the Fed Funds Rate until later in year.
To me it seems the months supply of existing homes will rise throughout the year.
Holding is lowering.
What a situation! Low inventory, and high interest rates = a standstill market for both parties! Unless sellers drop their price a lot! I think perhaps not.
I don’t think Sacramento’s job base (median income at $80k) can support home prices of $300/sf indefinitely.
Where? I liv in Sac close to Sac State- i don't see any for sale signs anywhere. Not in East Sac, except couple homes prices over 1million, absolutely nothing for sale from Tahoe Park to Colonial Village, or Arden Arcade area except a 4million dollar home in Sierra Oaks; been listed since last summer!!
Thanks Jason for your hard work and non-biased approach. Also, appreciate your up to date navigation of current articles. Be encouraged to…you are greatly appreciated.
I appreciate that! Thank you
People just won’t stop over paying! They just can’t wait…making bad decisions
Life is short. Yolo mentality
It will come back to bite them. So sad. Watched so much turmoil in the last bubble.
@@davidallen2682 no it won’t lol house prices won’t go down drastically anytime soon.
Eff em. They’re making it harder for the fiscally responsible people.
They been trying to above $600K in my neighborhood, so I’m sure thats why its starting to happen in DFW (Mansfield) area.
I sold my home at the peak in 2021 . Been waiting on the sidelines until things felt cooled off enough . Found the home I wanted in the area I wanted paid asking but got a lot of seller concessions bringing my monthly to a much more comfortable payment and still have savings from the equity I had. Overall waiting paid off. Hardly any competition in this price range and a decent amount to choose from . Starter homes and fixer uppers might not be a good deal still tho.
Well done! I'm hoping to have the same thing happen . Have been waiting 2.5 years for this market to get back to reasonable normalcy, and finally seeing it starting to make a slight turn, now. Spring will tell...
After languishing for about 8 months the Zillow value of my house in coastal SC is going up dramatically, well into new highs. Comparable sales are confirming the price increases. Housing in my area mirrors the US stock market which has been hitting new highs as well. The influx of snowbirds continues with lots of houses in the $2 million range being built recently.
Top 10 Metros in Washington State with the Fastest Growing Sales Price
Issaquah, WA 88.2%
Kirkland, WA 56.0%
Inglewood-Finn Hill, WA 42.9%
Kenmore, WA 36.1%
Martha Lake, WA 28.3%
Federal Way, WA 25.2%
Edmonds, WA 19.8%
Sequim, WA 18.3%
Puyallup, WA 16.2%
Lake Stevens, WA 14.8%
- Redfin
New home builders have more leeway on rates so I’m assuming the rise in sales. Home prices are the last leg that needs to drop. Income:home price are at record levels.
I started looking in 2019 then in June of 2020 decided to look in a small suburb. We put an offer in 2021. We were outbid by 10k. At the time I didn’t want to blind bid. Of course that house in is the 600s now w 7% rates. I’m staying put in my 2,200/mo rental. Luckily it’s my mom’s house she is kind enough to rent to us. She can get 4,500 for this place. But we are saving money living here instead of paying a mortgage of 3,500. Taxes here in Cook Cty, IL are INSANE. You have to add 1k/month just for prop tax.
I may not end up buying here at all and head to another State
Ouch! What do you get for such high property taxes? Do you get a break on income tax, perhaps?
Jason, you said price cuts were up 31% YoY but also said they were 30.5% at present and also 30.5% this time last year. Was the YoY number you quoted a mistake?
The Realtor.com stats is the change in the number of price drops vs Altos Research is the SHARE of price drops at a specific point in time.
I'd like to see if the recent home owner 2023 buyers were over extended when they bought or were they fiscally responsible and a fantastic candidate when they bought. If we still see people buying at inflated prices we might have a healthier buyer pool then ever expected
I know credit scores of people locking in their mortgage rate are still high but the debt to income is still elevated.
@@JasonWalter1
You're the master of data.
I'm trying to get Adam Taggart from "thoughtful money" to interview you. I know this is a stretch but it would be well worth the time and effort
Tuned in ☕️
Good afternoon!
He says everything he can to avoid saying home prices have to drop for sales to pick up. Wow.
My house just jumped 5000 in one day,omg, cannot believe it so much,so high
I been calling for a crash, and now its happening, get ready for deals our patience will be rewarded
Can I have some of what you are smoking? You have been wrong, are wrong, and will continue to be wrong. Remember me saying since at least 2018?
“Single family residential house prices will increase until at least 2030 since new home builds have not kept pace with population growth since 2010?”
-Curtis Loew
It’s been crashing for 4 years and counting now. Crashing up that is
@@ReeLSpirit And that is even worse for these Reventure simps. They follow him like they watch OF girls. One ‘guy’ came back at me with “do you have 500k subs” when I asked what Mr. Consulting ever got correct. As the old song goes, “when fools rush in”
-Curtis Loew
Lol
Not even close to crashing.
Inventory is still way down compared to precovid times, and prices holding, all when rates are at there highest in a long time.
Unless there is another Great Recession type of event, with massive amounts of layoffs, housing isn’t going to crash on a national level.
And even then, the government will enact programs to delay foreclosure for a year or two, slowing down any crash for years.
Putting all your eggs in the crash basket, is a terrible strategy.
I don’t think there’s crash, I have been on the boat before we are realistically going to see a correction if anything. People have increased wages and not 2018 wages… so keep that in mind. Do your research I know it sucks but it’s reality.
I'm selling and I'm buying so both good.
Why are you buying?
Also me, selling to get out of a very high tax hood plus it's a HOA, No thanks they can keep these high taxes.
home price in san diego so high cant afford to buy anymore home in San Diego
Buy a condo
@@ReeLSpirit I owned 3 condos
Over 900k MEDIAN PRICE!! SD CO.
I believe the median sold price there is around $900k so I believe it. Beautiful area but expensive.
@@sunnienie239 sell your condos and buy a better house
Interest can dampen demand,higher inventory
Bay Area East Bay, single family homes just under $1m still selling like hotcakes. Don’t see them on the market for much longer than 1-2 weeks.
Wow! thank you for sharing and keep us posted.
Yep. Some areas are still hot. Some are cooling. It's wonky!
@@JasonWalter1 seriously? real estate agent from sac doesn't know that???
The new home sales increased while the existing home sales decreased because the new home builders were given the flexibility to offer a lower-than-market interest rate to woo prospective homebuyers
Ya that’s true I got a 4.95 rate on a new home. Was looking at 7.00 otherwise
And offer freebies such as free builder upgrades and closing cost credits.
The new home builders, here, are still way overpriced, so I'm not biting. They just mark up their homes and make it appear to be a better deal. Plus, they usually don't do much, if any, landscaping. On the other hand, very old homes are also overpriced, and would need a ton of work to make them up to date. Thankfully, the ship is starting to turn, but it's slower than I would like! LOL
Does this inventory data include newly built homes?
Excludes. Good question
The soft landing that we have been hearing about sounds like a fairy tale to me.
Don’t see more inventory or reduced prices in the Bay Area. If stocks are at all time high, then Bay Area prices will not be coming down. The two are correlated
I bet :/
Hmmm. Good point.
As a millennial I have made peace with the fact I may never own a home or have any children. I will continue to enjoy my life & save & invest for retirement since I’m sure social security & Medicare will be long gone before I can retire. There really isn’t anything else we can do in this wild situation we find ourselves in.
Go somewhere else.. America is not ever going to be what it used to be. I'm thinking Australia
That's one way to think about it. But, remember, if you have kids you won't be lonely, and hopefully, they'll take care of you when you get too old to do so yourself. Meanwhile, you'll have many great times with them. 😊
People's pay needs a 50% increase or a 50% price drops on homes for sale ... which one do you think is most likely to happen 🤔
Neither.
Only time will tell ... keep a eye on those bond yeilds its gonna be 1981 all over again... 💥@@Needglory23
I know that I'm not getting a 50% raise. Not even a 3% raise. So, hopefully homes drop back down to where they should be, had COVID and fiscal stimulus not occurred!
I think the problem with the housing market in America is that everyone is looking at it as a investment property and not as a lifelong home for your family and kids because right now where I'm at over in Florida they have pretty much butchered the whole state going from South up to the border to Georgia because right now everyone is trying to buy a house in this oversaturated hyperinflated market and I'm surprised that it hasn't been tanking like the condo market has been recently, plus if you look around this is not a healthy market because it's been injected with so much stimulus and so much fomo that it will probably take maybe years for everything to kind of become stable right now everything is frozen because people are seeing that selling your house and moving into a different complex is not worth it due to the ever-increasing HOA dues and utilities and insurance. My biggest fear is that people who try to get into their first home everything is becoming more and more like an HOA community and eventually that cannot be sustainable due to them not having any regulation on how far they can jack up the dues. I think people should buy an acre of land wherever it's cheapest at and go off the grid to a certain point because with taxes and inflation it's only a matter of time before the middle class and the lower class become poor
Southern California, Los Angeles, see what $600,000 buys you 😳
@@jayk3551 Maybe 800 sq fr 😜
@@jayk3551😱
💛
Buying a home right now is like buying a Glue horse.
Bond yields are rising and the dollawill get crushed so will the housing marketr
Glad your buying....lol.
Key takeaways: “Crystal Bra”: Freudian slip or unfortunate mispronunciation??
Offer a tax holiday for current individual owners . Zero capital gains taxes for next three years
There is just absolutely nothing to buy. Inventory is definitely not increasing here in the Northeast yet. It actually feels worse this year than it did this time last year. I haven’t looked at a house since before Thanksgiving because there’s been absolutely nothing listed that fits my (very low) needs/expectations. We make 6 figures, have a large down payment, great credit, and can’t buy because there’s just nothing to buy. It’s so frustrating to be poised and supposedly in an excellent position to purchase and we can’t because nobody is selling. I literally want to make the largest purchase of my life and give somebody hundreds of thousands of dollars and I can’t. What a joke 😅
You are not alone. 😊
It will reach higher before the ultimate crash….its comin* sooner than anyone thinks. End of 2024 2025 it will begin.
I have been wiating for THE crash to buy again. Please come
You think housing is a 🍅 😂😂😂. Yea has been crashing since 2018 on RUclips
precisely.
Time to buy! Wages are up, and inflation down. People have the best buying power with low debt! What could go wrong?
😂
Sounds like realtor cope coming from you.
I want to live where you do 🤣🤣🤣
Time for realtors to get a second job lol
Has to be sarcasm
This is going to be a bad season
The bubble will pop soon!
I heard that since 2020. Since then I bought 2 investment properties and their value increased 100%.
Not in Miami...maybe in other cities in Florida
Make Your money in a blue state and retire like a king in a red state.
Home prices in SW Washington State continue to skyrocket 🚀
yikes :/
Why does there continue to be youtube videos declaring a housing crash is eminent? - for over three years straight now? What does that say for this medium?
Got to get that ad revenue. Fear sells. Little did they know they screwed themselves listening to this gurus
Agree here.
Says the Fed is watching what they say and doing everything to prop up the market. That's what is says.
It happens only when there is an uptick in unemployment and fed rate cuts . It yet to happen , But some claim that to happen for every small incident for views .
It's a mix of speculation and motivation for more ad revenue. If I posted a video every day stating the housing market is crashing, my ad revenue would be about 3x what I'm making.
NOW is the time to buy! Home prices have never been lower and businesses have never been more loyal to their employees. Go for it😊
This is realtor propaganda.
@@Dr.BatmanPhD I think its sarcasm
Better hurry up and buy before prices go higher!!!!!!
You go first! 😂
Months of inventory is a paltry 3.7 months and prices are up 5-6% year over year- a greater percentage increase than last year at the same time. With rates plunging back below 7% we are primed for another spring seaskn of continued robust price growth.
Sorry "sideliners", looks like youve wasted yet another year on rent. 😔
You assume we sideline on purpose....we sideline because we can't afford to get in the field.
@@jessicabixler1658 Then do something about your lack of capital and your lack of income.
-Curtis Loew
Or some of us pay off current homes and can enjoy life without rent or mortgage...
Rates plunging below 7? They’re around 6.9 for someone with excellent credit and 20 percent down. Core CPI still rose .4 and the btfp ended yesterday for banks. I think it’s safe to say rates will continue to stay around where they’ve been for longer than expected.
@@jessicabixler1658there are many sideliners waiting for the biggest crash ever :))
There are atleast 3 million people waiting on the sidelines... there's no chance of a crash. Wait a decade when home builders catch up to the missing inventory.
And baby boomers sell their homes.
If you are an average income Buyer, most will never be able to own. Definitely part of a larger plan by the world planners. Apartment rental will be the only option.
Soft landing.