The Secret Early Retirees Know (and you don’t?) 🤔
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- Опубликовано: 9 сен 2024
- The Secret Early Retirees Know (and you don’t)
Two Free online Monte Carlo simulations:
(Not an endorsement for either. Not an affiliate. Use at your own risk. Seek advice from a professional)
1) Vanguard's (simple and visually appealing)
retirementplan...
2) FIRECalc (not visually pretty but shows the 100s or 1,000s of different "lives"/scenarios run)
www.firecalc.com/
🔥 MORE FROM AZUL:
Twitter: / azul_wells
Essays: www.azulwells....
💲 NEED FINANCIAL ADVICE? 💲
1) Google "fee-only financial adviser" or visit www.NAPFA.org (the largest association of fee-only financial advisers). NOT an affiliate link
2) The first question to ask any financial adviser is, "Are you a fiduciary to me 100% of the time". Get the answer in writing
3) Please note that some people call themselves "fee-based". This is NOT the same as fee-only. Fee-only advisers have committed to being fiduciary to you 100% of the time.
4) Personally, I would only hire an adviser who is a fiduciary to me 100% of the time. This is not a suggestion on what you should do. Just sharing my personal preference.
⚠️ Azul's "Scammer" Warning ➡ PLEASE READ! ⚠️
Be careful of scammers. In the comments section, I will NEVER ask you to contact me, offer any investment products, recommend a stock broker, or anything similar. Some scam bot commenters 'ask' for investment help, and later, other comment bots reply with "how great X idea/investment/person is" in the replies. These are scam threads. Do not fall for them.
🚨 Azul's VIDEOS ARE NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE (Disclaimer) 🚨
This information is only provided as an informational resource and should not be viewed as investment advice or recommendations. To get professional financial advice from a fee-only financial advisor near you, please visit www.napfa.org.
The decisions on how to invest, when to retire, and other financial planning topics are some of the most important financial decisions you will make in your life. I urge you to seek professional financial advice as you make this decision. Ideally, from a financial adviser, AND a CPA AND an attorney. Having the perspective of all three professions will help you make the right decision for you and your family.
This information is being presented without consideration of the investment objectives, risk tolerance, or financial circumstances of any specific investor and may NOT be suitable for all investors.
This information is NOT intended to, and should NOT, form a primary basis for any investment decision that you may make. Always consult your own legal, tax, and/or investment advisor before making any investment/tax/estate/financial planning considerations or decisions.
Spoiler Alert: There are no "get rich" programs. Rather, just basic blocking & tackling and putting in time and care. Do your homework, choose wisely and (IMHO) work with experienced professionals who are fiduciary to you 100% of the time.
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As an investing enthusiast, I've kept aside a good sum of capital to invest for financial independence and early retirement, but my concern right now is the market rally being propaganda. Is this a good time to buy stocks, or do I wait for the crash?
You can't time the market. Start doing monthly investments and allow the averages of the market to smooth out these peaks and valleys.
The timing is right for Crypto.
One of your best, Azul. Liked the examples shown. For those reading these comments, I'm now 87 and I've been retired 28 years. Best thing I ever did was to leave work and "Retire" (What a misnomer of a word) at 59. As Azul advocates...Don't put it off! Years are more important than money.
Thanks Arthur!
And for everyone else, check out Arthur’s RUclips channel. One of my favorites. Learn from the guy who has already traveled much of the journey we are about to embark on (retirement). Search RUclips for “Arthur Thomas Ware”
ruclips.net/video/WKKEyG8xtYA/видео.htmlsi=cVbZZJyqP8cHN8Bf
When did you start to feel your health was starting to wane as you aged?
I agree 1000%. I'm retiring in December at 56 and I hope to have a long retirement. I decided to live for me after "supporting" several family members.
Retiring at 55. Love the 4 percent rule.
I'm 54 and my wife and I are VERY worried about our future, gas and food prices rising daily. We have had our savings dwindle with the cost of living into the stratosphere, and we are finding it impossible to replace them. We can get by, but can't seem to get ahead. My condolences to anyone retiring in this crisis, 30 years nonstop just for a crooked system to take all you worked for.
@Christina-Gisela That's actually quite impressive, I could use some Info on your FA, I am looking to make a change on my finances this year as well
@Christina-Gisela The crazy part is that those advisors are probably outperforming the market and raising good returns but some are charging fees over fees that drain your portfolio. Is this the case with yours too?
@Christina-Gisela I will give this a look, thanks a bunch for sharing.
I’ve been diligently working, saving and contributing towards financial freedom and early retirement, but the economy so far since the pandemic has eaten away most of my portfolio, what I want to know is this: Do I keep contributing to my portfolio in these unstable markets or do I look into alternative sectors.
Just try to diversify your portfolio to other market sectors, that way your investment is balanced and you don’t get to make so much losses.
Due to my demanding job, I lack the time to thoroughly assess my investments and analyze individual stocks. Consequently, for the past seven years, I have enlisted the services of a fiduciary who actively manages my portfolio to adapt to the current market conditions. This strategy has allowed me to navigate the financial landscape successfully, making informed decisions on when to buy and sell. Perhaps you should consider a similar approach.
In fact, I'm not sure whether I'm permitted to say this, but I'd suggest searching for “Margaret Johnson Arndt” as she gained a lot of attention in 2017. She is both my coach and the manager of my portfolio.
More and more people might face a tough time in retirement. Low-paying jobs, inflation, and high rents make it hard to save. Now, middle-class Americans find it tough to own a home too, leaving them without a place to retire.
The increasing prices have impacted my plan to retire at 62, work part-time, and save for the future. I'm concerned about whether those who navigated the 2008 financial crisis had an easier time than I am currently experiencing. The combination of stock market volatility and a decrease in income is causing anxiety about whether I'll have sufficient funds for retirement.
This is precisely why I like having a portfolio coach guide my day-to-day market decisions: with their extensive knowledge of going long and short at the same time, using risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying it off as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, their skillset makes it nearly impossible for them to underperform. I've been utilizing a portfolio coach for more than two years, and I've made over $800,000
Mind if I ask you to recommend this particular coach you using their service?
'Carol Vivian Constable, a highly respected figure in her field. I suggest delving deeper into her credentials, as she possesses extensive experience and serves as a valuable resource for individuals seeking guidance in navigating the financial market.
Thanks for this. Found her and looked through her credentials before contacting her. Once again many thanks.
Worse than running out of money, is running out of time !
Not everyone runs out of money. Everyone runs out of time.
Every crash /collapse/inflation or a recession offers an equal market opportunity if you are well prepared and knowledgeable. I've seen people accumulate up to $800,000 during crises and even pull it off with ease in a bad economy. Without a doubt, the bubble or crash has made someone extremely wealthy.
I agree that there are strategies that could be put in place for solid gains regardless of economy or market condition, but such executions are usually carried out by investment experts or advisors with experience
@TomEllis-mn2suThings are strange right now. The US dollar is becoming less valuable because of inflation, but it's getting stronger compared to other currencies and things like gold and property. People are turning to the dollar because they think it's safer. I'm worried about my retirement savings of about $420,000 losing value because of high inflation. Where else can we keep our money?
Well I recommend you make a diversification plan because it's been harder to build a good stocksportfolio since COVID. My colleague suggested I hire a brokerage Adviser, and I've actually made over $150K with their help during last market upheavel. They used defensive strategies to protect my portfolio and make profits despite the ups and downs.
I do believe you guys do
Please it will be of benefit if one can share more educational business Lessons And ideal fact That's working
It's recommended to save at least 15% of your income in a 401k. You can use online calculators to estimate how much you should save based on your age and income. Saving at least 15% of your income in a 401(k) can help ensure that you have enough money to retire comfortably. By saving this much, you can take advantage of compound interest and potentially grow your retirement savings over time.
Effective personal finance management is more important than the amount of money saved, regardless of whether income is earned through job or investment. Individuals can seek counsel from a certified financial advisor to optimize financial outcomes, who can provide specialized advice and methods to decrease expenses and maximize income.
I completely agree; I am 60 years old, recently retired, and have approximately over a million dollars in external retirement funds. I am debt free and have very little money in retirement funds compared to the total value of my portfolio over the past three years. To be honest, the Financial-advisor can only be neglected, not rejected. Just do your due diligence to identify a fiduciary one.
This is exactly how i wish to get my finances coordinated ahead of retirement. Can you recommend the financial advisor you used to get ahead?
I really don't like making such recommendations, because everyone's situation is unique. But there are plenty of independent financial advisors you could check out. I've been working with “Colleen Janie Towe” for about 3 years and she's very, very good. If she meets your discretion, then you could go ahead with her. Most likely, her deets can be found on the net, so you can confirm yourself.
Colleen has the appearance of being a great authority in her profession. I looked her up online and found her website, which I reviewed and went through to learn more about her credentials, academic background, and employment. She has a fiduciary duty to protect my best interests. I sent her an email outlining my objectives and also booked a session with her; thanks for sharing.
It’s literally difficult for me to spend my pension as I live very simply and have everything paid off. I’m going to Europe next week for a month and plan to spoil myself with some good food. Then again, I hate gaining weight so I probably won’t even succeed in spoiling myself in that department. The simple life is the best. I rarely even drive as I enjoy riding my cargo bike all over town.
You just described many of us 😅. Simple life and foods and we feel good and love every day. Going somewhere and splurging just makes us feel less good. But we should do it anyway 😊
Riding a bike adds years and enjoyment.
My plan is to eliminate all debt before retirement which will enable me to lower my spending during down market years in retirement
This is why financial plans are not a one-time event. They are forever changing and need to be monitored each year so we can adjust for market conditions, spending, and all the uncertainties that go along with a 30 year retirement. Great video!
I really appreciate your advice. I’m 15 months from retirement and continually refining my plan. I take most other planners with a grain of salt and usually agree with 50% of their advice. You are always spot on!
Great video. This just reaffirms my feelings that a financial advisor is 10 % financial advice , 90% counselor
That is true Paul. I have used a "life coach" for many years. He and I have become friends and we often say how similar his job is to mine. Thanks for watching and for taking the time to comment! 🙏 Azul
Azul, I think (maybe I am blind), but you forgot the link to the Monte Carlo thing.
Hi Kent. I updated the show notes to include the links to the free only Monte Carlo analysis. I don't like posting links in the comments (because of scammers). So, please go back and find the link. Sorry that I forgot to include it initially. 🥺 Azul
Doing a 6,7,8 percent withdrawal is safe as you wait to take SS at full retirement age. One you reach that, dial it back to 3 or 4 percent, if you are really are concerned. Like you said, most people leave over a million in their estate when they expire...that's nuts, as is taking huge RMD's with huge taxes in the event of a spouse dying early.
The advice that I got that turned it around for me is that planning is important, but you there is a 100% chance that your plan is wrong. The value is in what you learn by planning so you can accurately adjust course on the fly.
I enjoy your videos, where is the link to the Monte Carlo simulation?
Hi Tim. I updated the show notes to include the links to the free only Monte Carlo analysis. I don't like posting links in the comments (because of scammers). So, please go back and find the link. Sorry that I forgot to include it initially. 🥺 Azul
@@AzulWells Thank you.
No one needs to run out of money. If you learn new skills at home that are free, like coding or data science or marketing, you don’t have to go back to the office or do hard labor. You just set up streams of income and freelance if you need to well before you get too old. People get too anxious. I’ll tell you anxiety: Get a terminal cancer diagnosis. That’ll kill off you; and your savings
I’m 61 retiring next year but the thought of retirement gives me weakness. My apologies to everyone who have retired and filing social security during this time after putting in all those years of work just to lose everything to a problem you never imagined to happen. It’s so difficult for people who are retired and have no savings or loved ones to fall back on.
Hi, new to your channel and bing watching them all ! I just wanted to thank you for being a calming voice for us close to retiring. I’m 60, and will retire mid ‘24 to very early ‘25… before 62. My financial guy said I’m good to go, but there’s always that doubt. Eating your videos has put me at ease with it, I’m now very comfortable with it.
I’m telling all my friends and customers about your channel, and forward videos to them. Your influence and calming examples is a big deal to the common middle class person.
Thank you again !
Rick
I hadn't heard of Monte Carlo or seen the Vanguard calculator till now. Very interesting. What it doesn't take into account is that, in Australia, we have an asset tested aged pension from age 67 so if assets don't perform as well as expected and fall below the threshold you may be eligible for a part or full pension which is a great comfort.
Well stated! Thanks for addressing the percent of success for the rest of the scenarios. Thanks for sharing!
Thanks so much Azul. Glass half empty vs glass half full and I can adjust how fast I'm drinking if I start to run out along the journey. I love your optimistic approach compared to so many that want to look for 100% certainty. The only guarantee is we will run out of healthy, active days. Plan against that certain outcome with a. Informed and balanced approach.
This was a great video, probably one of your best. It helps free my anxiety a bit so that I can spend more comfortably in retirement. It is really hard psychologically to start spending the money we spent so many decades building, but these videos act to educate and help affirmation that it is now time to enjoy the rewards of building our best eggs. Thank you Azul!
Thanks John. It is hard to start actually spending from the accounts you have spent your entire life putting money INTO. I'll keep talking about this issue because what you are feeling is real. And it is common. But, it is also "stealing" some of the joy you could be reaping from all those years of hard work. Thanks for watching and taking the time to share your thoughts with the community. 😎 Azul
Hi Azul, what is the link for the Monte Carlo simulation? Thank you.
Yeah, not linked
I was looking for it too!
Me three, no link Azul.
I have a weird feeling about this you tuber. He has answered one guys comment and then endorses him but leaves us hanging...all of the poll questions too. I might unsubscribe
I agree with the comments below, this may be your best/most impactful video yet Azul. When I started looking at the monte carlo results where I had an 80% change of success as a 20% chance I would have to make a change, it all changed for my outlook on retiring early. Keep up the good work!!
Get with any company/state position that has a pension with a yearly COLA.
More simulations for singles please.
Seriously, almost 50% of adult Americans are single, and yet we get no coverage.
Retirees who struggle to meet their basic needs are the ones who could not accumulate enough money during their active years to meet their needs. Retirement choices determine a lot of things. My wife and I both spent same number of years in the civil service, she invested through a wealth manager and myself through the 401k. We both still earning after our retirement.
Concern. looking at the past to predict the future... when the future is becoming questionable with current president/situations like now and the beliefs of half the population
@AzulWells I am not seeing the link to the Monte Carlo simulation. Maybe I am too quick to ask this question, seeing this has just been posted a few hours ago. If that is the case, my bad. Thanks for the great video regardless.
I updated the show notes to include the links to the free only Monte Carlo analysis. I don't like posting links in the comments (because of scammers). So, please go back and find the link. Sorry that I forgot to include it initially. 🥺 Azul
Thank you Azul for your counsel on these videos.
I like the make a plan with good odds of success, but be ready to “not fly the plane into the ground”. Adapt as you need and not be afraid of that.
Amanda divorces Tom and financially destroys him causing Tom to spend the rest of his life living in his car.😂
Tom divorces Amanda and financially destroys her causing Amanda to spend the next two years living by the river until she moves in w Kevin/Kelley....
Simp
@@alexlee8617- Only until Amanda finds the next guy to marry her. Tom lives happily ever after, solo, in his car, lol.
Eating cat food.
OR....Tom divorces Amanda to upgrade to a younger model, and then financially devastates Amanda, because she had more assets than him. It cuts both ways folks..... I'm Amanda in this scenario and my Ex is Tom.☹️
Regardless of whether you're a Wise person, it's best to consult a professional advisor right away. As a business owner in the service industry as well as an ebay reseller of all product categories, I can attest to the fact that we are in a severe recession and that everyone is running out of money
If you use Monte Carlo simulation you need to understand the assumptions being made. The outputs are directly a consequence of the assumptions. A more useful technique is to look at simple scenarios and look at what scenarios will leave you miserable and what you can do about avoiding or minimising those risks. Probabilities are little help when you have only one lifetime and you need to manage your specific risks. So examine those adverse scenarios and what you would do faced with those circumstances. As an aside, it’s interesting how many financial advisers seem so well off. Where are their clients’ Bentleys?
I ran the Firecalc against my current portfolio balance and am at 100%. Vanguard is projecting 99%. I guess I am ok. 63 and not retired yet. I enjoy my career too much but have informed my company that I am retiring July 2025 when I go on Medicare. I won’t take my SS until FRA which I factored in these simulations. I don’t really need it to survive.
MC simulations just show the effects of random fluctuations but such an approach misses any structural changes. Examples of structural change: medical advances extending healthy lifespan by 30 years (longevity risk). General inflation risk whereby some proportion of your savings yields less than prevailing inflation thereby reducing the real value of your savings. Specific inflation risk eg medical cost inflation exceeding asset returns in the future (inflation risk for costs of care even in the presence of insurance). There are various videos like this and they are helpful. They can also be too narrow focused.
Azul I’ve been watching and loving your videos. I do have one observation that also relates to my own situation. You invariably discuss retirement as a fixed event. It’s one I toy with. However two things occur to me that are linked. Firstly filling your time productively when “retired” appears to be quite an issue and many people I observe have actually retired too soon. They’re bored and a little desperate. The second is the mentality of having a number. Both appear to be solved by having a gradual approach to retirement….semi retirement. That would be a great lens for these discussions and dialogues. I am sure for many people that is going to become the norm and it brings its own challenges and opportunities
Excellent point. I completely agree and I need to start weaving the idea of semi retirement into these discussions. Thanks for taking the time to share this with me. Azul.
Enjoy your posts. Hoping you will add the Monte Carlo link as you mentioned. Thank you for all you do!
Waiting also for the link 😊
I updated the show notes to include the links to the free only Monte Carlo analysis. I don't like posting links in the comments (because of scammers). So, please go back and find the link. Sorry that I forgot to include it initially. 🥺 Azul
80% likelihood of success is good enough for me.
I'm so sorry for you guys from the US. Your have no free universal health care( (like in Australia) and as you get older you will need health care more. In Oz we also have compulsory superannuation funds (11% of your wage or salary that all employers must contribute to too until you retire. These funds also contribute to the nation's savings and provide funds for investment opportunities are guaranteed by the Australian government. On retirement every citizen is entitled to receive a two weekly pension for the rest of their lives. Obviously that is in addition to any income you may have saved privately for your retirement. These progressive policies also take pressure off the government providing old age pensions for those that have been on welfare most of their life.((need extra help). The fact that our lower paid workers get at least the minimum wage($23.23 hrly rate) ensures we have less poverty etc. We also are entitled to six weeks paid holiday each year plus generous sick leave and long service leave as well.😅😅
For me the biggest thing is to retire in a position where I can adjust my spending down, if needed. If you pull the trigger on retirement and need that upper result of the Monte Carlo to happen then I say good luck to you.
Thanks ! My advisory wants 70% success and living to 100. Crazy. Take SS at 70, that is your longevity insurance, it will never run out. Market goes up, great. Market goes down, ok, roll to roth and pay less taxes.
NO SIMULATION LINK??
Hi Jill. I updated the show notes to include the links to the free only Monte Carlo analysis. I don't like posting links in the comments (because of scammers). So, please go back and find the link. Sorry that I forgot to include it initially. 🥺 Azul
With markets tumbling, inflation soaring, the Fed imposing large interest-rate hike, while treasury yields are rising rapidly-which means more red ink for portfolios this quarter. How can I profit from the current volatile market, I'm still at a crossroads deciding if to liquidate my $275k bond/stock portfolio
Most people near retirement age don't have a clue how much actual cash they need to support their lifestyle. Add up what you spend each year. Every nickel. You may be shocked at how much it is. And guess what? Without a major change, those expenses aren't going down all that much just because you "retire."
We use our Amex card for a lot of purchases and last year (Amex keeps a running total) and last year we spent around $40,000 on our Amex cards mainly for food, lawn supplies, house supplies, cell phone bill, cable, streaming services, etc. Our property taxes are paid by check to the town ($10,000 plus annually) then there is our annual tax bill to the IRS, we are very lucky to get our health coverage through my husband's union it costs us only $75 monthly for the last ten years, it was free when he was still working in the trades. Union dues are about $300 a year. Husband takes $400 out of the bank to have money in his pocket for gas, etc. He was bringing lunch to work daily (they have a microwave and a coffee maker on the job sites he goes to). He would also bring a breakfast sandwich from home that I would make him all throughout the pandemic for 3 years bc food in NYC is very costly. I also forgot to include car insurance and homeowners insurance. Car ins. is $3,000 annually on multiple cars and homeowners is over $2,200 after we redid our homeowner's policy to reflect rising costs of replacing a house in a total loss we do not use the credit cards to pay for that, we pay by check. Then there is life insurance ($200 plus a month) and if we had long term care insurance we would have to pay for that.
It has become harder to retire now than in the past. I was saving instead of investing for a very long time, and now I just have about $516k and I don't know how to make it grow, with all the inflation, into something tangible I could retire with. Any ideas?
At a point like this, when the pressure is already on you to retire, it s best recommended you seek the services of an advisor, as this allows you make smarter investing decisions.
This is true. I worked as a financial advisor with Merrill Lynch and then as an independent financial manager. I have seen really great profits that can be made by picking the right stocks and making good profits quickly.
This is nice. I would really like to work with a financial advisor, but it's hard to find one online these days. I'll appreciate any recommendations made.
I don't like making such recommendations, but I know Monica Amanda McClure and she's been making really great profits. I think she has a website or something.
Thank you for this tip. It was easy to find your coach. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her resume.
Hi Azul. Where can I find the link for the free on-line Monte Carlo?
I’m looking !
Me too! @@matthewholliman1399
I updated the show notes to include the links to the free only Monte Carlo analysis. I don't like posting links in the comments (because of scammers). So, please go back and find the link. Sorry that I forgot to include it initially. 🥺 Azul
@@AzulWells Azul, you are very helpful.
@@AzulWells Thanks so much, Azul. Your videos are very helpful.
What about medical insurance? How are you navigating this when you retire early?
The healthcare exchange helps if you are lower income. If you are high income you will pay the bulk of the insurance. When you retire you spend less so the two cancel out. He also has a video on this question.
Be a retired teacher get health benefits from your NYC union job.
@@stevegorkowski3246 My son is in his 20's and he is paying $400 monthly for his benefits on the exchange and he makes around $25K a year. The older you are the more it costs. He had to take a gold plan to pay for his migraine medication which was a higher tier drug costing $1,800 monthly. (he pays $25 for his medication through the insurance plan he got from a marketplace website.)
@@jdenino6022 Retired medical benefits through a job is usually tied to age or length of service. Azul is talking about retiring early between 50-55-ish, right? I was thinking (I could be wrong) that most people would miss eligibility for job medical benefits if they retire early (50-55). Would you miss it? If so, then the strategy would necessitate the market place, right? Does being in a union change things?
Simple three column spreadsheet can tell you this. Easy peasy.
Same conclusions we have come to. All the reviewing, stress testing and our numbers indicate that our money will more than double in retirement at the lowest end and could be as much as 4 X more at 80 than 58. Just crazy. So we have set a date and are racing towards it. !!
Great suggestion to live on the amount you want to live on during retirement and see if it works for you. Agree, we need to accept some uncertainty. Just read Die with Zero and this all resonates.
Retire in the Philippines. Live like a king on $3,000/mo
Here's a secret that I wish someone would have told me: You won't need as much annual income as you do when you are working, because when you retire, you will no longer be diverting part of your pay into a retirement fund, a pension plan, social security tax, or Medicare tax. It turned out that I was actually living off of $35,000.00 less than my salary while I was working. Since this was 28% of my salary, I only needed to bring in 70% of my salary after retirement to experience no change to my lifestyle at all.
Thank you for the concise explanation. Perfect.
I'm about to turn 60 in October, was laid off @ 55 so effectively I've been 'retired' for over 4 yrs, was able to begin withdrawals this year... But there are a couple of things that make me not so sure about the Monte Carlo simulations. Basically, virtual global depopulation (The US and a few countries will fare better), China, Europe, etc., will soon mean there just will not be as may workers nor consumers to buy things. There is no economic model or theory that isn't based around economic growth. The second (and more real) issue are the impacts of climate disruptions, there will be mass migrations from areas too hot to live, droughts, floods, etc... So yes I have a mixture of "stocks and bonds" but how will major upheavals play out? No one knows.
@@RetireandGo Yep, I've seen a lot of ex-pat videos from the Philippines, Thailand, a few from Malaysia and Vietnam. Philippines has the "easiest" VISA it sounds like, from the limited amount of what I've seen, Kuala-Lumpur, Malaysia looks really nice. But, I don't do well in the heat, summers where I am are bad enough, I don't know in these beautiful tropical location's if I'd fair well...I grew up as a younger kid in South FL, and at 12 spent a year on Guam, and those were miserable as well for me as a youngster.
Enough with the climate alarmism. It is not a concern. So say many very, very smart experts in the related fields. And no, the media and gov't officials are not to whom I am referring!
Great video as usual.
Whats your comments on the scammers jumping on the comments?
Another great video Azul. I'm trying to build my confidence to make the leap and you are a great help...very much needed. Thankyou. I couldn't find the Monte Carlo link...?
I couldn't find it either?
I updated the show notes to include the links to the free only Monte Carlo analysis. I don't like posting links in the comments (because of scammers). So, please go back and find the link. Sorry that I forgot to include it initially. 🥺 Azul
@@AzulWells Thanks for that. I'm not always good at gindind those things. I appreciate that👍
I enjoy your videos, keep them coming.
Glad you like them!
Am I not seeing things correctly or is there no link to the free Monte Carlo Simulation?
Hi Erin. That "other" Azul is a scammer. I updated the show notes to include the links to the free only Monte Carlo analysis. I don't like posting links in the comments (because of scammers). So, please go back and find the link. Sorry that I forgot to include it initially. 🥺 Azul
Monte Carlo was designed to determine where artillery shells would hit. Named where developer’s uncle liked to gamble, in Monte Carlo.😂
For those who want to take out 4% with stock average returns of 8% (realistic) here are the sums:
$10,000 annual income: $10,000 / 0.04 = $250,000
$20,000 annual income: $20,000 / 0.04 = $500,000
$30,000 annual income: $30,000 / 0.04 = $750,000
$40,000 annual income: $40,000 / 0.04 = $1,000,000
$50,000 annual income: $50,000 / 0.04 = $1,250,000
Great video 😊 Question on most of your videos it seems like you give an example of 401k balances like 500k, what about retirees who also get a pension like 4-5k a month and have 500k in a 401k. Can you give examples of these. I’m 53 and that my criteria with my primary home is paid off as well as a rental property. I want to retire at 55, what are your thoughts? Thanks in advance
Depends on your style of life. Im close to your situation and a good time to me is a frozen pizza and a movie recorded on dvr. Im not worried and havent touched my 401 yet after 10 years. Good luck!
retire if you want , i retired at 55 with a locked pension 48000 a yr paid off house but not much in savings , got bored out of my skull after the first winter , went back to work an made more money than i did working for 4 years and it was free money not like you had to buy milk or diapers with it so anyway turned 60 wife an i took cpp Canada pension and at 65 old age , we don't spend the money coming in because there's nothing we want to spend it on , when you get older things change , do you buy a rv to cruise the country or a sailboat to cruise the world or fly to visit stuff or people ? i'm happy at home to be honest after years of working away , my daughter lives on the other side of the country and my wife can fly there anytime she wants , pretty sure that's all the money you will ever need or want 🙂
Love this video. Azul is helping us maximize the youth of our senior years. I am planning my best to die with zero $$ and live every day to the absolute fullest.
What happens the day after $0?
Thanks for the kind words. They mean alot to me. 🙏 Azul
It seems like as you get older, you could up the percentages of withdrawal. IRA minimum required withdrawal might be a guide.
I don't understand why people want to retire. I was a stay at home mom for many years. I've just had 4 days off. I clean, do laundry, mow the lawn, garden, cook, and go shopping. Why retire? If I want to travel, I'll put in for vacation time.
I worked at the golf course part time when my daughter was younger. Those guys spend a lot of money to not be bored. I liked being there and getting paid plus free food. I got privileges but i only used the pool. Golfing just isn't my thing. Plus, I like watching videos like this at work, knowing I'm getting paid.
You are MORE important than your money. ✅
Love this video. The glass half full....
Don’t see the Monte Carlo link
Hi Eric. That "other" Azul is a scammer. I updated the show notes to include the links to the free only Monte Carlo analysis. I don't like posting links in the comments (because of scammers). So, please go back and find the link. Sorry that I forgot to include it initially. 🥺 Azul
@Azul. Where is the Monte Carlo link?
I updated the show notes to include the links to the free only Monte Carlo analysis. I don't like posting links in the comments (because of scammers). So, please go back and find the link. Sorry that I forgot to include it initially. 🥺 Azul
I’m more worried about my kids running out of money than me at this point. They’re not gonna have anybody to look out for them. My family is dwindling down and I don’t know if they’ll be very much family around to help when I’m gone. I got to do something soon big change I can open my own restaurant or AC company, but is very expensive and getting too old for that let alone the financial burden of the start up. Working for somebody else.😢😅
Good video. By reading the comments, I see that people do gravitate towards one of the two sets of couples in your example. For the ones who are financially risk adverse, I doubt they live the rest of their lives the same way. Are chairs checked for sturdiness each time they are sat down? More joy and less worry is best.
I don’t see the link to the Monte Carlo simulator mentioned in the video?
Hi Tim. That "other" Azul is a scammer. I updated the show notes to include the links to the free only Monte Carlo analysis. I don't like posting links in the comments (because of scammers). So, please go back and find the link. Sorry that I forgot to include it initially. 🥺 Azul
$750,000 and retire at 55? What does $30K a year do? No SS# for 7 years and both have to pay health insurance for 10 years.
I cry when I consider retiring. I apologise to all of the people who have retired and filed for social security during this time, having worked so hard for so long, only to lose everything due to an unavoidable circumstance.It's particularly challenging for retired individuals.
True, It has never been easier to understand how to build your money after retirement than it is right now with the inflation, when you may study and experience a completely variegated market passively by employing a successful portfolio-advisor. The impacts of the U.S. dollar's gain or fall on investments, in my opinion, are complex.
Even if you’re not skilled, it is still possible to hire one. I was a project manager and my personal portfolio of approximately $850k of my retirement pension took a big hit in April due to the crash. I quickly got in touch with a financial-planner that devised a defensive strategy to protect and profit from my portfolio this red season. I’ve made over $250k since then.
There are many financial coaches who excel in their profession, but for the time being, I employ Laurel Dell Sroufe because I adore her methods. You can make research and find out more.
Thank you for this tip. It was easy to find your coach. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her résumé.
Thank you Azul appreciate your video's.
Excellent discussion
Thank you! I would love to see an example budget, all inclusive (e.g includes taxes) of someone who is living in the us, and onn45k per year. Assume mid-size city and average to better-than -average health. What does the lifestyle look like?
I retired at 37 and looked at some Monte Carlo simulators online. They can be great tools but there are also some serious flaws. It’s like drying to drive while looking out the review mirror. When planning for a potentially 50+ year retirement the risks go up exponentially not linearly.
I have to not only live off just the income but also have to try and grow the principle to keep up with inflation. If I’m lucky and still around in another 20-30 years and the kids are gone then I can look at being more aggressive. You also have to consider what the estate tax situation will be decades from now which is unknowable.
The biggest problem with Monte Carlo simulation is that it tests a model you input and assumes a normal distribution. And that is fine. Except 3+ std dev events are where you make and lose a fortune. Over the course of running loads of simulations, you will basically achieve expected bounds of normality.
Getting rich over time is about optimizing risk adjusted returns.
Edit: and FWIW, my portfolio is underperforming my financial advisor’s worst case Biden Presidency forecast, which was the worst case model. So modeling is in itself subject to your rosy assumptions about how bad policy might be.
@@H..M.. good point. It can’t account for BLACK SWANS and no simulation could. That I know of anyway.
Great video Azul!
Hi Azul, where is the link for the free Monte Carlo?
Hi Amy. I updated the show notes to include the links to the free only Monte Carlo analysis. I don't like posting links in the comments (because of scammers). So, please go back and find the link. Sorry that I forgot to include it initially. 🥺 Azul
Great video! Thank you so much. Cheers!
Hi Azul, I am 57 years old and have about 400K in a 401K. At my current age what should I be investing in with my 401K?
He can't (ethically) answer that.
He’s say get a fee only advisor
What about having a defined pension as well. Mine is for life
You’re one of the few who has one. Only CEOs, public employees and union workers still have one now a days…
I have a guaranteed public pension ($8k per month, COLA-adjusted, 100% passed to surviving spouse for life). Retired at 58. 😊
@@jdenino6022 mine is union
@@Fell214 We have one too but it’s not $8,000 a month. Only cops, firefighters and other public workers get a pension that high. I know a fireman who gets $130k a year. Unbelievable.
Im 49….I am going through a divorce and will have about $70k equity to put towards a new home. I have roughly $300k in a retirement account…Im considering building a home using all of those assets with an end goal of living morgtage / rent free…then continue to work until 65 to rebuild that retirement.
I’m not a financial advisor so know that up front, but no way would I touch a 300K retirement account to pay off a mortgage. Your 300K could be earning you 7-10% a year (average). Next year 300K might be 330K. The year after 363K, etc…. You have 15 years of that potential, and each year the starting balance is higher so it earns you more.
You can always refinance a mortgage should rates drop back down a couple points. Just my .02. In the end, you should do you’re own research and make decisions you can live with.
What about healthcare? What about health insurance?
One question that I have is whether the 4%, 6% withdrawals are determined to be the before tax withdrawals or the amount to be spend per year out of the total investment? Thanks!
If my plan goes well, my last transaction will be to the funeral home/crematory ... and it will come back to them as 'insufficient funds' 😀
Link for the simulator please
I updated the show notes to include the links to the free only Monte Carlo analysis. I don't like posting links in the comments (because of scammers). So, please go back and find the link. Sorry that I forgot to include it initially. 🥺 Azul
Thank you
Great video. Please post the link to the Monte Carlo for us. Thank you.
I updated the show notes to include the links to the free only Monte Carlo analysis. I don't like posting links in the comments (because of scammers). So, please go back and find the link. Sorry that I forgot to include it initially. 🥺 Azul
I understand. Thanks for sharing this info. with us. @@AzulWells
What about a couple Bob and Harry?!
Like your videos, -but why say that you're going to provide a link in this video and then not do it and then just respond with "Get in touch!"?-
Hi Steve. That "other" Azul is a scammer. I updated the show notes to include the links to the free only Monte Carlo analysis. I don't like posting links in the comments (because of scammers). So, please go back and find the link. Sorry that I forgot to include it initially. 🥺 Azul
Hi Azul, Thank you for the explanation (and the links). Again, thanks for the great, easy to understand, content!
I have no problem not spending all my money before I die, my kids and grandkids will get what’s left over. I live simply and satisfied with what I have.
You have a 100% chance of receiving social security until you die. So you will never really run out of income.
Just need to move to Thailand
My hubby and I are thinking same!
Albania for me.
Love your vids! I'm 57 and want to retire early. What is the best way to continue health insurance that is affordable? Thank you!
I retired from the Federal Government at 59. I'm not old enough to take SS and won't take it at 62 but won't wait until FRA or longer because I have a medical condition and most of my family members died in their late 70s. It would be foolish to wait until FRA to draw SS. I have a residual income and don't plan on touching my 401k funds until I am forced to do so. All of this is possible because I retired debt free. I OWN my home, car, and anything else I have. If I have to go into debt to get something, I don't get it. I save up and then get it. I have Health Care coverage for life because I retired from the Federal Government. That was the reason I stuck it out so long at a job I couldn't stand. I saw the light at the end of the tunnel. My best advice for anyone wanting to retire is make sure you are debt free, have good health care coverage, and have some form of residual income. It doesn't have to be great income if you don't have any debt.
@AzulWellsPrivate_Message I don't do WhatsApp and you probably aren't Azul anyway.
Retire on a pension, investments with on going income. Social Security is a supplement not a retirement plan…
Avoid financial advisors. They’re not advisors , they’re trying to sell you whatever product pays them the highest fees. The only person retiring early will be the financial “advisor.”
4%, or any other withdrawal rule, makes no sense in a world with Social Security. I guess folks must be assuming it is going to be zero. Good luck on your future taxes if you do that.
Excellent video content, Azul !!