As a real estate appraiser I find it amazing how PE has moved into real estate development. In a slow market and/or rising interest rates the PEs can be destroyed. When you consider the property's market value the PE's can be overleveraged to the point that the debt is more than market value. The PEs look great right up until the property goes into foreclosure, then everything vanishes for the investors.
They come in like a wrecking ball. To all of you owners out there, thinking this might be a good idea to sell and cash out. Remember you’re not selling a company you’re selling the people that made you all of what you are today. And you will be there to witness what they do. The people that you knew and trusted for decades will be thrown away like trash. Enjoy your retirement.
When you have to substantiate your worth with a glorious CV for 5 minutes before saying anything should say all you know. Trust me, we all know what Pro Bono means. We all would love to know what you actually did, not where you were at some point in time.
What is the statistical probability of the first quartile achieving it again (repeating success)? Poor. What are the odds of the largest funds achieving success (beating an index fund)? Random.So, why is it that these funds continue to exist? In investing in proprietary companies, one significant success can fund the future of the PE company and the investor’s desired returns. What we need to know is what the average dividend and distribution is of the PE funds to the investors over 10 years. Diversification is often the major cause of earnings paralysis; clipped at the knees by over diversification. The pressure to succeed, the entrance of the more common investor in PE funds and the failure to achieve success beyond the index funds has muted interest by the institutional investor. Knowledge is king. First question to ask a PE fund, “What are your exact carry fees and are they based upon revenue or invested funds values?”
Ever notice with these PE firms🤔 The CEO'S are the ones that always become the billionaires👌they use their clients funds to rake in the dollars and handout to them the cents❤
Just listened to him talk about how Asian retail investors are more “whimsical” (it’s a “hot stock”) than US retail investors. yep I knew right then this video was before GameStop and before Covid. Sure enough it was 5 years ago.
I'm a rube. But just received a money market ad from my bank that was going to pay 2 percent!!! I want to know how to get their 21 plus percent usury credit card returns into MY account. Really!!??
I, generally, agree with his overall warnings about the "fuzziness" associated with PE or the exaggeration of the possible future returns. However, I think he's being a bit disingenuous comparing PE returns to the returns of US public equity markets over the past decade. The past decade for the S&P500 or Russell 1000 has far exceeded long-term averages (aka the returns have been anomalous.)
I dont mean to be so off topic but does anyone know a method to log back into an instagram account? I was stupid lost the login password. I appreciate any tricks you can offer me
@Merrick Cody Thanks for your reply. I found the site through google and Im trying it out atm. Looks like it's gonna take a while so I will reply here later when my account password hopefully is recovered.
@Merrick Cody HOLY **** IT REALLY WORKED :O I just hacked my ig password after roughly 40 mins of using the site. Just had to pay 15 $ but for sure worth it :O Thank you so much you saved my account!
One lesson I've learned from millionaires is to always put your money to work, no matter how small. Even investing €200 per month can compound to tremendous wealth over decades. The key is to keep going!
My advice for who wants to grow financially this year, invest. Saving is good, but investing elevates your finances. Thanks to my financial advisor, my portfolio is thriving, and l'm proud of last year's decisions.
People often don't realize how important financial advisors are. Data from the last 50 years shows that people who work with CFAs usually earn more than those who don't. I've worked with a Adviser for 7 years, and now I have a $2 million portfolio.
I've stuck with ''Julianne Iwersen Niemann" for some years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She's quite known in her field, look her up..
I think PE and M&A work. But you have to invest in good businesses with strong fundamentals. When you do that you don’t need to fire people and shift a lot around to improve the profits because you bought it profitable. The problem here is with any asset class; when you have more money chasing it the prices will inflate beyond what the assets are truly worth. When leverage debt gets involved it gets nasty because the lenders will continue to lend based on what the new fair market prices are. Easy example: housing prices. Banks keep lending even when the prices of housing are way to high because “they can make the payment” Same thing here. It’s all good until you can’t make the payment. This is the same just on steroids.
There are a lot of strategies to make tongue-wetting profit that the average joes don't know. . Personally, the financial-market for me seems the only way forward with my long time horizon (accrued roughly $457k in gains since Mid 2021 ) but if you don’t have that fortune of time it’s a tough market out there almost nowhere feels safe!
If you’ve got patience I believe it’s a great time to invest… I’m no expert but as Warren buffet said he’s seen this happen a number of times throughout his life
@@BrunoLuke I've known I had wanted to start investing for a few months but just haven't been brave enough to start due to the market so far this year. I have $60k I want to transfer into an S&S ISA but it's hard to bite the bullet and do it. $457 is a huge milestone, Please what's your strategy? I will love to have an insight
@@MarcusFred-wn3iv I began with a fiduciary portfolio advisor by the name MARTHA ALONSO HARA. She’s verifiable and her works ethics is in accordance with the US investment act of 1940. Her approach is transparent allowing total ownership and control over my portfolio with fees very reasonable in comparison with my investment-income. Also, She covers things like investment insurance, making sure retirement is well funded, Go over tax advantages , ways to have a volatility buffer for investment risk. many things like that.
@@MarcusFred-wn3iv MARTHA ALONSO HARA really seems to know her stuff. I looked her up on the web using her full name and found her page, read through her resume, educational background, and qualifications and it was really impressive. She is a fiduciary who will act in my best interest. So, I'll book a session with her
Because you can very comfortably earn 7 figures in your late 20‘s while having a better W/L Balance than any other high finance role ( AM is not high finance anymore tbh )
Basically, the more leverage (debt) you use the better your returns will be or worse your losses will be - hence the volatility of PE LBO's. Debt enhances either your wins or your losses, depending on the outcome. Leveraged Buy Outs - LBO's, make use of debt to buy companies; they turn around and sell these companies after paying off the debt for an insane return. Let's say there's a company worth $100MM and I put in $50MM of my own money and $50MM of debt. If I can use the cash flow of that business to pay off the $50MM, I could potentially sell that company for the same price I bought it ($100MM) and make a cash return of $50MM. Picture that, only you sell that company for waaay more than you bought it for. That's essentially what he's getting at.
Confirmed some of my suspicions that few alternatives seem to be beating 60-40 indexing. It would be nice to hear more on that; esp. the free/no agent fee options ;-)
I had to pause half-way and comment. Irrespective of whether his data is backed by legit sources or not, the very premise of a PE is shaky (at best) to me. I'm a "risk averse" profile - so, yea - Thank you, but no Thank you. Awesome presentation, though.
Great talk. I honestly think the average person on a good salary is best off putting his money in a high interest savings account as contrasted to entrusting a PE fund with it. For someone with more time and money on hand, a more active apprach is preferable wherein they are picking investment vehicles with more personal scrutiny.
For the average person, only for short term savings would I recommend a "high yield" savings account. For the last two decades, the return rate for CDs and Money Market accounts have been laughably low, so low that savers are punished by actually losing money after adjusting for inflation. Only recently have savings accounts started offering higher rates approaching 5%, but it's still not even enough to offset current inflation rates. The only good thing to say about these accounts is that they allow you pull money out in a relatively short time horizon while offering a slightly better return than a simple checking account. For any serious long-term savings, the clear choice is to open an IRA, Roth IRA, or HSA and invest the money in a low-cost index mutual fund or ETF. Turn on recurring contributions and stay the course; do not get scared when the market changes. You'll end up with an average 7-10% return annually and it will entirely or at least mostly tax-free money.
there is no way in hell, an investor is going to get an above average return when the fees are 2% plus 20% carry for gains. Warren Buffett made this bet with several fund managers and he won all of this bets.
1 in 1024 investors beat the market? Are you sure about that? You may have misplaced a decimal - seems more like 1 in 10,240. But I'm speculating - could easily be 1 in 102,400. Better to invest in yourself, buy Porsches, and travel the world. Those are zero-risk high-return investments.
a lesson but no action yappie yapiie how to leave exit Aa RATING MOODY BUT looks like a long lecture..lungs inflated with jargon waiting for a conversion.....robotics funds..@10000 margin entry with ema...moving average
“My background is a little unusual.” As he begins to explain how he started in investment banking and then to private equity after.
Hilarious
Lol I think he meant the Pro Bono stuff
Jjjyyyyyy
hahahaha
Lmaoo
Good presentation. Additionally, both Buffett and Munger have very low regard for PE firms, that’s says a lot about these firms.
As a real estate appraiser I find it amazing how PE has moved into real estate development. In a slow market and/or rising interest rates the PEs can be destroyed. When you consider the property's market value the PE's can be overleveraged to the point that the debt is more than market value. The PEs look great right up until the property goes into foreclosure, then everything vanishes for the investors.
They come in like a wrecking ball. To all of you owners out there, thinking this might be a good idea to sell and cash out. Remember you’re not selling a company you’re selling the people that made you all of what you are today. And you will be there to witness what they do. The people that you knew and trusted for decades will be thrown away like trash. Enjoy your retirement.
Well written. I suspected this is what happened at Carphone Warehouse UK.
The law of Supply and demand holds true in every market... be it veiled in mark to model, mark to market or otherwise.
@@seancirilo-marchant2432diminishing marginal benefit my friend, diminishing marginal benefit
For him to present this material as clearly, calmly and quickly as he did, it indicates that he knows what he's talking about.
This is a world class presentation
Awesome talk... Main thing was that the PE funds are themselves marking to the market of their unsold investments.
except it's not entirely true. All the funds are audited.
When you have to substantiate your worth with a glorious CV for 5 minutes before saying anything should say all you know. Trust me, we all know what Pro Bono means. We all would love to know what you actually did, not where you were at some point in time.
This is my second time watching this video and it never gets old.
Sample size of 2 doesn't say much for "never"
Excellent, clear and well researched presentation on the myths of private equity - thank you!
Sources? Think it's cut-off in the presentation. Looking at Cambridge Associates data and very different return profile from what he is showing.
classic presentation very easy to understand, thanks for talk
What is the statistical probability of the first quartile achieving it again (repeating success)? Poor. What are the odds of the largest funds achieving success (beating an index fund)? Random.So, why is it that these funds continue to exist? In investing in proprietary companies, one significant success can fund the future of the PE company and the investor’s desired returns. What we need to know is what the average dividend and distribution is of the PE funds to the investors over 10 years. Diversification is often the major cause of earnings paralysis; clipped at the knees by over diversification. The pressure to succeed, the entrance of the more common investor in PE funds and the failure to achieve success beyond the index funds has muted interest by the institutional investor. Knowledge is king. First question to ask a PE fund, “What are your exact carry fees and are they based upon revenue or invested funds values?”
Ever notice with these PE firms🤔 The CEO'S are the ones that always become the billionaires👌they use their clients funds to rake in the dollars and handout to them the cents❤
"The myth of private property" from Goolag
Very interesting analysis
Just listened to him talk about how Asian retail investors are more “whimsical” (it’s a “hot stock”) than US retail investors. yep I knew right then this video was before GameStop and before Covid. Sure enough it was 5 years ago.
I'm a rube. But just received a money market ad from my bank that was going to pay 2 percent!!! I want to know how to get their 21 plus percent usury credit card returns into MY account. Really!!??
“Option number b” 🤔
Excellent talk.
Favorite video on youtube.
I, generally, agree with his overall warnings about the "fuzziness" associated with PE or the exaggeration of the possible future returns. However, I think he's being a bit disingenuous comparing PE returns to the returns of US public equity markets over the past decade. The past decade for the S&P500 or Russell 1000 has far exceeded long-term averages (aka the returns have been anomalous.)
I dont mean to be so off topic but does anyone know a method to log back into an instagram account?
I was stupid lost the login password. I appreciate any tricks you can offer me
@Rex Bowie Instablaster ;)
@Merrick Cody Thanks for your reply. I found the site through google and Im trying it out atm.
Looks like it's gonna take a while so I will reply here later when my account password hopefully is recovered.
@Merrick Cody HOLY **** IT REALLY WORKED :O I just hacked my ig password after roughly 40 mins of using the site.
Just had to pay 15 $ but for sure worth it :O
Thank you so much you saved my account!
@Rex Bowie glad I could help xD
Fantastic speech!
One lesson I've learned from millionaires is to always put your money to work, no matter how small. Even investing €200 per month can compound to tremendous wealth over decades. The key is to keep going!
My advice for who wants to grow financially this year, invest. Saving is good, but investing elevates your finances. Thanks to my financial advisor, my portfolio is thriving, and l'm proud of last year's decisions.
People often don't realize how important financial advisors are. Data from the last 50 years shows that people who work with CFAs usually earn more than those who don't. I've worked with a Adviser for 7 years, and now I have a $2 million portfolio.
I've stuck with ''Julianne Iwersen Niemann" for some years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She's quite known in her field, look her up..
I think PE and M&A work. But you have to invest in good businesses with strong fundamentals. When you do that you don’t need to fire people and shift a lot around to improve the profits because you bought it profitable.
The problem here is with any asset class; when you have more money chasing it the prices will inflate beyond what the assets are truly worth. When leverage debt gets involved it gets nasty because the lenders will continue to lend based on what the new fair market prices are.
Easy example: housing prices. Banks keep lending even when the prices of housing are way to high because “they can make the payment”
Same thing here. It’s all good until you can’t make the payment. This is the same just on steroids.
the tldr version - PE/HF is basically a scam for fees based on survivorship bias.
Thank you google for making these public!
Link doesn't work to the book....
There are a lot of strategies to make tongue-wetting profit that the average joes don't know. . Personally, the financial-market for me seems the only way forward with my long time horizon (accrued roughly $457k in gains since Mid 2021 ) but if you don’t have that fortune of time it’s a tough market out there almost nowhere feels safe!
If you’ve got patience I believe it’s a great time to invest… I’m no expert but as Warren buffet said he’s seen this happen a number of times throughout his life
@@BrunoLuke I've known I had wanted to start investing for a few months but just haven't been brave enough to start due to the market so far this year. I have $60k I want to transfer into an S&S ISA but it's hard to bite the bullet and do it. $457 is a huge milestone, Please what's your strategy? I will love to have an insight
@@MarcusFred-wn3iv I began with a fiduciary portfolio advisor by the name MARTHA ALONSO HARA. She’s verifiable and her works ethics is in accordance with the US investment act of 1940. Her approach is transparent allowing total ownership and control over my portfolio with fees very reasonable in comparison with my investment-income. Also, She covers things like investment insurance, making sure retirement is well funded, Go over tax advantages , ways to have a volatility buffer for investment risk. many things like that.
@@BrunoLuke Word of the day: fiduciary. do not talk to anyone who is not a fiduciary to you, who explains everything.
@@MarcusFred-wn3iv MARTHA ALONSO HARA really seems to know her stuff. I looked her up on the web using her full name and found her page, read through her resume, educational background, and qualifications and it was really impressive. She is a fiduciary who will act in my best interest. So, I'll book a session with her
I don't get why so many people want to work in PE then when so much of the returns looks like smoke and mirrors, not following any logic
Are you talking about investing in a PE fund or working for a PE firm? PE apparently pays workers really well, from what I've read.
Because you can very comfortably earn 7 figures in your late 20‘s while having a better W/L Balance than any other high finance role ( AM is not high finance anymore tbh )
Not a bad way to live. It seems fun.
This is gold, thanks for sharing
Thank you sir great in depth conversation. Private Equity funds look good 2 me. Index funds do they do shorting funds?curious?
Mal Gray as in do index fund short stocks?
Can someone explain 10:38 to 11:32?
Basically, the more leverage (debt) you use the better your returns will be or worse your losses will be - hence the volatility of PE LBO's. Debt enhances either your wins or your losses, depending on the outcome. Leveraged Buy Outs - LBO's, make use of debt to buy companies; they turn around and sell these companies after paying off the debt for an insane return. Let's say there's a company worth $100MM and I put in $50MM of my own money and $50MM of debt. If I can use the cash flow of that business to pay off the $50MM, I could potentially sell that company for the same price I bought it ($100MM) and make a cash return of $50MM. Picture that, only you sell that company for waaay more than you bought it for. That's essentially what he's getting at.
Confirmed some of my suspicions that few alternatives seem to be beating 60-40 indexing. It would be nice to hear more on that; esp. the free/no agent fee options ;-)
Excellent....
keeping the diferrence
I legit thought this was bush when I looked at the thumbnail quickly
Good presentation.
wow 4 mins in the man had such interesting career path....
I had to pause half-way and comment. Irrespective of whether his data is backed by legit sources or not, the very premise of a PE is shaky (at best) to me. I'm a "risk averse" profile - so, yea - Thank you, but no Thank you. Awesome presentation, though.
"I got into Asia quite a bit" me too sir, me. Too.
My life have been better, since I started investing 4k and now earning over 20k just in 15 days.
Welcom Mr hppy morning
Great talk. I honestly think the average person on a good salary is best off putting his money in a high interest savings account as contrasted to entrusting a PE fund with it. For someone with more time and money on hand, a more active apprach is preferable wherein they are picking investment vehicles with more personal scrutiny.
For the average person, only for short term savings would I recommend a "high yield" savings account. For the last two decades, the return rate for CDs and Money Market accounts have been laughably low, so low that savers are punished by actually losing money after adjusting for inflation. Only recently have savings accounts started offering higher rates approaching 5%, but it's still not even enough to offset current inflation rates. The only good thing to say about these accounts is that they allow you pull money out in a relatively short time horizon while offering a slightly better return than a simple checking account. For any serious long-term savings, the clear choice is to open an IRA, Roth IRA, or HSA and invest the money in a low-cost index mutual fund or ETF. Turn on recurring contributions and stay the course; do not get scared when the market changes. You'll end up with an average 7-10% return annually and it will entirely or at least mostly tax-free money.
Savings account with rates right now is pretty good temporarily, but over time would be a disaster compared to equities (sp500 etc).
@@nevermind0143 agreed 100%
There is some
private equity successful c.e.o
there is no way in hell, an investor is going to get an above average return when the fees are 2% plus 20% carry for gains. Warren Buffett made this bet with several fund managers and he won all of this bets.
@@Eduardozco hurdle rate is a bullshit term for expected ROI. The expected ROI has absolutely nothing to do with the fee structure.
Bro, he challenged hedge fund managers not PE fund managers
I wouldn't trust private equity funds. I would rather put it 90% in index funds and 10% in the high growth disruptor companies.
This is the play
great
yall forgot about brookfield asset mgmt
Lee Eric Brown Steven Lopez William
It's Un-American if the government doesn't get a piece of the transaction when two peaceful people decide to gamble with each other...
Good luck gambling "peacefully" without public services 👮♀️
No wonder the machines in casinos pay horribly, he took them out so the can pay fees to deadbeat state officals.
1 in 1024 investors beat the market? Are you sure about that? You may have misplaced a decimal - seems more like 1 in 10,240. But I'm speculating - could easily be 1 in 102,400. Better to invest in yourself, buy Porsches, and travel the world. Those are zero-risk high-return investments.
The Cambridge Associates PE Index says otherwise…
a lesson but no action yappie yapiie how to leave exit Aa RATING MOODY BUT looks like a long lecture..lungs inflated with jargon waiting for a conversion.....robotics funds..@10000 margin entry with ema...moving average
Are there any non-asians that work at Google?
Ken Powers no we domino everything
@@sosoanninhk Dominate, not domino, dumb dumb.
No. problem?
as interesting as this is, this guy's boring.
This is a terrible presentation. He doesn't know public speaking for crap.
How would you improve upon it...presuming you must know a lot about public speaking.
chutiya you know nothing
Why is world bank doing private equity?
Written INdependentialLy>./:APProvied/DEiligatELY:s B1995 AdministrativeR QQWOiP: lawQ ?//nd.D