I lived 4 great years in China, 2014 to 2018. Before arriving I was pretty sure an HK brutal takeover would happen, and then there would be disruption and possibly an invasion of Taiwan and then probably South Korea via the North... The South China sea artificial Islands (long ignored by the US for corporate reasons) were completed. At that point it would have been naive to ignore the giant flexing its muscles. A few like General Spalding raised alarms, but were ignored by politicians, the corporate and most of the financial world. Arriving in BJ in 2014 I realised after just a few weeks that my predictions were not only accute but they would probably happen way sooner than I initially thought. I watched the 2017 PLA troups crossing proudly Beijing as I would have watch the German army in Berlin in 1938... The election of Trump was a relief compared to the laissez faire of previous administrations. And it destabilised the CCP. China's objectives hasn't change at all since Mao, and the Emperor Xi can be quite stubborn itself. Taiwan will fall into the CCP's hands unless we either: - strike first, which we'll never do, and the CCP knows it. - open the quad alliance to Europe and we start treating Russia as a necessary allied in this loser game. Regarding Russia, I don't think Russia situation is clearly understood here. China clearly claims Vladivistok and other parts of Siberia. The west ignoring this, and China's huge needs for natural resources, is not helping Russia nor ourselves. When China will have invaded Taiwan, it will turn its attention towards the North. This is were lies the only opportunity for the west: make an alliance with Russia on the count that the west would help Russia if invaded/bullied by China, which I am sure they know perfectly well can and will happen. It would create a new equilibrium were China would understand that it is better to wait (bid their time) again... Until they succesfully divide the rest of the world and controle our medias, unis, youth politics etc... all over again 🤷 China will NEVER back-off or be tamed unless divided into 5 or more competing countries. This is what should be our strategic objective for the next 50 years. Here are my personal views.
The Arizona plant will only be used for 4mm chips & not for 3-2mm chips which TSMC is currently investing 100b $ in to develop exclusively in Taiwan. Baiscally TSMC is only producing "current / soon to be old" tech in the US, while the high end chips will be continued to be produced in Taiwan.
China invasion. 1. 10000 cheap drones similar to Iranian shaheed, expends all Sam munitions, drones target Sam and other coastal defences. 2. Fishing boats disguised launch invasion force of 5000 jetskis, to rush Coast in darkeness. 3. Force of 10000 undercover operatives surround chip manufacturing plants, and government centers. 4. subs pop up start slamming coastal defence. The main objective to expend expensive Taiwanese munitions with cheap targets like drones and jetskis on day one. I believe Xi already in talks with Russia, as US EU forces partially occupied there, and steadily burning nato munitions. Can nato really afford war on 2 fronts?
This man is good, a lot he talk make sense. Just he think take taiwan will like take afghanistan is laughable. He do not understand the mindset of Chinese. People in Taiwan admit or not are Chinese. Chinese will not fight unless it is about live or die. Once PLA defeat Taiwan military on ground, Taiwan will not fight any more. There is no point fighting a losing war against your same race. For what? For those who is on top? Why losing your life for someone on top and none of my business, either Tsai or Xi make no big difference. They will not die for that. It's so not Chinese.
I give you an example. Once the security law is passedin Hongkong, those freedom fighter chose fleet and those riot were taken care right away. That is chinese mindset. Freedom has a price, and it does not worth your life.
I must have an emergency plan in case this happens
Fascinating interview. I rarely watch CI videos because of the hyper-annoying interruptions, but glad I persevered with this one.
Just what I needed for my monday morning macro fix.
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Great interview but 2 ads within the first 12 minutes?
the channel seems nice, but you benefit from a less fancy editing on their videos.
I lived 4 great years in China, 2014 to 2018.
Before arriving I was pretty sure an HK brutal takeover would happen, and then there would be disruption and possibly an invasion of Taiwan and then probably South Korea via the North...
The South China sea artificial Islands (long ignored by the US for corporate reasons) were completed.
At that point it would have been naive to ignore the giant flexing its muscles. A few like General Spalding raised alarms, but were ignored by politicians, the corporate and most of the financial world.
Arriving in BJ in 2014 I realised after just a few weeks that my predictions were not only accute but they would probably happen way sooner than I initially thought. I watched the 2017 PLA troups crossing proudly Beijing as I would have watch the German army in Berlin in 1938...
The election of Trump was a relief compared to the laissez faire of previous administrations. And it destabilised the CCP.
China's objectives hasn't change at all since Mao, and the Emperor Xi can be quite stubborn itself.
Taiwan will fall into the CCP's hands unless we either:
- strike first, which we'll never do, and the CCP knows it.
- open the quad alliance to Europe and we start treating Russia as a necessary allied in this loser game.
Regarding Russia, I don't think Russia situation is clearly understood here. China clearly claims Vladivistok and other parts of Siberia. The west ignoring this, and China's huge needs for natural resources, is not helping Russia nor ourselves. When China will have invaded Taiwan, it will turn its attention towards the North.
This is were lies the only opportunity for the west: make an alliance with Russia on the count that the west would help Russia if invaded/bullied by China, which I am sure they know perfectly well can and will happen.
It would create a new equilibrium were China would understand that it is better to wait (bid their time) again... Until they succesfully divide the rest of the world and controle our medias, unis, youth politics etc... all over again 🤷
China will NEVER back-off or be tamed unless divided into 5 or more competing countries. This is what should be our strategic objective for the next 50 years.
Here are my personal views.
These are great comments. Thank you for generously sharing your views on China, Taiwan, and Russia!
Fantastic outlook and analysis on the geopolitical situation of China. I may need to archive your comment.
Love this guy’s perspective..
Where can I read that TSMC's Arizona plant could have 5x of what it manufactures in Taiwan ? I've read only 20%
Hi Millhouse, can you try this piece? www.tomshardware.com/news/tsmc-arizona-fab-potential-expansion
The Arizona plant will only be used for 4mm chips & not for 3-2mm chips which TSMC is currently investing 100b $ in to develop exclusively in Taiwan. Baiscally TSMC is only producing "current / soon to be old" tech in the US, while the high end chips will be continued to be produced in Taiwan.
China invasion. 1. 10000 cheap drones similar to Iranian shaheed, expends all Sam munitions, drones target Sam and other coastal defences. 2. Fishing boats disguised launch invasion force of 5000 jetskis, to rush Coast in darkeness. 3. Force of 10000 undercover operatives surround chip manufacturing plants, and government centers. 4. subs pop up start slamming coastal defence. The main objective to expend expensive Taiwanese munitions with cheap targets like drones and jetskis on day one. I believe Xi already in talks with Russia, as US EU forces partially occupied there, and steadily burning nato munitions. Can nato really afford war on 2 fronts?
Awesome Gameplay Video
This man is good, a lot he talk make sense. Just he think take taiwan will like take afghanistan is laughable. He do not understand the mindset of Chinese. People in Taiwan admit or not are Chinese. Chinese will not fight unless it is about live or die. Once PLA defeat Taiwan military on ground, Taiwan will not fight any more. There is no point fighting a losing war against your same race. For what? For those who is on top? Why losing your life for someone on top and none of my business, either Tsai or Xi make no big difference. They will not die for that. It's so not Chinese.
I give you an example. Once the security law is passedin Hongkong, those freedom fighter chose fleet and those riot were taken care right away. That is chinese mindset. Freedom has a price, and it does not worth your life.