"At some point" yes. Once he's been given enough. But Corach Rambler won last year with a lot more in hand than it might look, because he idles quite badly when in front. Difficult for the handicapper to know how much he had in hand... And has proved he's worthy of a far bigger weight by improving his form to be 3rd in the Cheltenham Gold Cup... Coming into this race again as the best handicapped horse in the field. ie His improvement means he is more than capable of carrying the greater weight.
Only 3 of the top 6 are running this year so if you ignore vanillier he won't get round twice it's between the two previously winners not a lot between them this year but if it's a slog PANDA BOY. STATLER and MISTER INCREDIBLE MUST ALL GO CLOSE
The Grand National is the easiest race to make a profit on. So many once a year gamblers, so many don't understand how the race has changed, so many mug punters following "trends".... "It wants to be 8 or 9 years old". These two ages have enormously outnumbered those younger and older... Therefore you can expect more 8 and 9 year olds to have won the Grand National.... Also, since the needed changes to the fences, trainers have been running more younger horses. More 7 year olds running means there will be more 7 year olds winning the Grand National than there used to be.
@@walshie2639 Maybe but unproven to stay , it would be a big risk given how staying is essential. I don't rate the race he won at Cheltenham very much
Limerick Lace would have a good chance if staying the trip. Was 2nd to Coko Beach over 3m but is effective at 2m4f. On good-soft maybe would have a chance. However, it looks as though the going will be at least Soft... And although she goes well on that surface it will likely place too much emphasis on stamina.
@@markchapman2933jumping would be an issue and you have to go back to 1951 for the last time a mare won this I reckon the other JP horse Meetingofthewaters is a good bet 👍🏻
@@nickg2117 Messaged my friend who lives near course and he says hes never seen the ground so muddy so Mr Incredible is one of only a few I could back if I was gambling.
I am maximus obvious chances. Similar to Burrows Saint from a previous year. I have him Mr incredible had him last year but could be tough after run in Midlands national. Wouldn't count out but that race may have taken something from him Meetingofthewaters I also have him. Good place in the ultima, looked to stay. Looks to be a good horse, good weight. Question his age and maybe small Question on stamina but did stay in ultima. Coaroch rambler gold cup toll worries. Takes a lot from a horse. Coko beach didn't do well last year and more weight this year. Not for me. Great at 3m but don't think he is a national horse
I keep coming back to Coko Beach. I get the fact he's been beaten twice in the race, but I think he's matured into a better horse this year and will love the heavy ground. Obviously, he will have to give away a lump of weight, but his run in the beecher and troytown were really solid. He was around a 3/1 shot for the cross county at Cheltenham before they voided the race, and now he is 40/1 here. Massive price.
Coko Beach has led the Grand National field twice and failed to stay twice. Has on a couple of occasions this season been ridden differently. Only racing handily in the Troytown and held up in the Becher... So there is a possibility that with more restraint might stay. But only might. I'd say most likely not. Got there going well enough in the Becher but barely got home over 3m2f. Failing to beat the 11 year old Chambard. The X Country he won in Ireland was 3 miles.
@@markchapman2933 All valid points. I would just posit that Chambard's performance that day was exceptional, which even vets are capable of once in a blue moon and no doubt the 22lb he received from Coko helped (5lb Claimer as well). Also, Coko won a National Trial comfortably over 28f at Punchestown in Feb '23. (53000 Euro's.) Still, racing is all about opinions & I love the back & forth with knowledgeable folks like you.
Gambled on it being better ground and went for galvin and desertmore house. Got them both in ew doubles with intense raffles from today so fingers crossed the sun comes out
Are you mad ? The National course is an absolute bog right now and rain is forecast every single day. Gambling on the weather when the ground is already heavy ? Clueless.
Thanks for the info Dave - always like the trend horses 👍 Been backing Kittys Light for a while now and again when it went NRNB - also got Corach from last year and in Dec and also like the trend of Limerick Lace - the 100/1 shots always worth a couple of quid ew with extra places available. Opening a BFair account to add to my other 2 PP/Sky to take advantage of laying horses and covering my bets . Like everything it’s still your choice to follow your advice or not - just gamble sensibly 👍 Look forward to next weeks video as well , recovering from a Hip Op so plenty of time to study the form - best of luck buddy 👍👍
@@anjou6497 thanks for your reply . Good luck with whatever you decide to back , can’t see Threethroughunderfive or whatever it’s called . All your others are decent ew prices ☘️👍
I haven't backed her but it's Skelton so I wouldn't be too shocked. Low weight feels like a classic Skelton and nice enough price. I do like the race he came 2cnd in at Warwick and the winner went on to get third in the Midlands grand national close behind Mr incredible a horse I think is very good. I backed mr incredible in national last year when his saddle slipped to unseat the rider(so unlucky). Got a chance Galia Des liteux but she must be better than at Exeter
@@nathanwhitehouse8237 Forget Exeter, the race came too soon after Warwick and her best form is on left-handed tracks. She stays, she acts well on very soft ground and she jumps well. Can jump boldly, making lengths at her fences. Would like to see her a bit better handicapped but has only run once over an extreme trip so could well improve again. She'd be my best result.
@markchapman2933 Skeltons horses just turn on sometimes so I can easily write off the Exeter run. The rest of the form is good as I mentioned. Probably got fair chance.
Good horse clearly after being close to Gallard Du Mesnil but would have been smashed by Mahler mission had he not fell. Mahler mission more weight at 9 pounds but could have the class to overcome that.
Always put me off due to its size but has proved me wrong in two big races already and you can plough through the fences now , Only scary fence now is Valentines. Not sure it has class to win a modern National but will stay as for heavy ground ? Make no mistake . the ground could be as bad as bad as its ever been. Its a mud bath now with more rain forecast. Nassalam will be backed.
Great horse but I won't back until we know if decent ground as he likes better ground. Nasaalam good but welsh national winners don't have a great record in the English grand national
Nassalam will obviously love bottomless ground. But the Welsh Grand National form is not working out. Did win by a street but the second and third have disappointed since. Iwilldoit won the Welsh Nat' the previous season, but his subsequent form this season suggests he did not run anywhere near his best in third. Nassalam had ground conditions in his favour at Cheltenham and although 3m2f is a bit short for for him these days, should really have done better if he's to defy a mark of 161 at Aintree. Some 16 lbs higher than Chepstow.
"You don't want a horse who's already run in the Grand National and not won". The handicapper (the bloke that allotted the horses their weights) used to give more weight to horses who've run well over the unique Grand National fences. ie If two horses were thought as good as each other but one had run well over the course... then the horse with experience would be effectively punished by being given more weight. The new handicapper no longer does this. So horses with form over the course now have a better chance than previously.
Maybe. End of the day if you can jump well then the fences shouldn't be an issue. They are big but good jumpers will manage. Good jumpers generally use less energy aswell. Irish like using the cross country at Cheltenham to train but it was abandoned so good horses may have not shown their quality yet
Hi Dave, i haven't managed to move on from cheltenham yet, although i do think there are two good bets in the national if the ground came up good in vanillier and chemical energy. Going back to cheltenham, who do you think are going to be the top novice chasers and hurdlers for next years festival
Majborough, Ballyburn if they go Chasing. Not so sure on chemical energy. He has 9 pounds on mahler mission but mahler mission would have crushed chemical energy had he not fell
@@markchapman2933 I agree with that but ever since he won the Irish national last year for a horse with so inexperienced he will get better with jumping over time and the last day he gave VANILLIER a 16l pasting plus the national fences these days are less forgiving
@@garydent3904 Immediately after the Irish National last year, I was thinking the same Gary. But this season has brought no improvement on the jumping front, Even in the Bobbyjoe he often jumped left-handed and slower than Vanillier. closing back up only on the flat. Form books tend to summarise too much. This is how I saw his round: Jumped left throughout, stuttered into the 2nd, put in a short one and mistake 8th, slow 9th, 10th and 11th (each time knocking him back briefly in last position), slow at next two, badly left 5 out. Challenged between runners 2 out, led soon after. Going clear without much effort when a difference of opinion with rider at the last, putting in a short one and mistake, jumping left and slow. went further clear run-in. Much easier to get away with in a 4 runner race. The poor jumping is not a novice thing anymore, it appears just part of the horse he is now.
@@garydent3904 Of IAM's rivals in the Bobbyjoe: The last of 4 Fury Road should (yet again) have been pulled up and has probably been amiss all season. Bobbyjoe third Minella Crooner was an extremely lucky winner on reappearance. Something went wrong with the odds-on fav Bronn and the eventual second blundered at the last handing it to MC. Then greatly flattered; 20 lengths behind going down the hill to 2 out in the New Years Day Chase, but winner Jungle Boogie and notorious weak finisher Classic Getaway had gone too fast too soon. MC closing up as the other two were out on their feet. Bobbyjoe second Vanillier was very weak in the market that day, possibly because he is best under less testing conditions and / or not fit enough. I Am Maximus the only one to show his form. Might have improved, difficult to judge. Certainly has potential to improve given another extreme test of stamina, but will he get round? Seems a bad price to me.
@@garydent3904 The National fences are (rightly imo) more forgiving, but statistically the course still produces a larger percentage of faller / unseats than any other course in Britain or Ireland... And in any race it is not just falling / unseating that's the problem (If I remember rightly IAM is yet to fall / unseat) It's losing ground to his rivals at those fences. Likely to lose more ground in the Grand National than any other race.
One that I've been keeping a eye on is desertmore house, was entered but pulled out of Irish national needing 7 to come out to even get a run, but has a good ew chance at 40s I think if he gets in, shortened into 33s but back out to 40s today, it's on the cusp, I've got a saver of corach at 20s aswell
Desertmore appears to have staying chances, signs of staying and low weight. Not had a great season though and cleatus poolaw in second didn't do much at Cheltenham. Desertmore not ruled out but risky based on lack of solid staying abilities. Not for me but maybe has a ew chance. I think you should only back if you think they have a fair chance to win though
@nathanwhitehouse8237 yeah I had a small multiple of 3 winners ropey guest 33s ballyburn 7s & lossiemouth at 7/2 running onto corach at 20s, but opted to cash that
@@mallloyd5551 Lossiemouth Ballyburn should be great horses for the future. Majborough aswell. Sadly mullins doesn't know what to do with Majborough yet.
Janadil e/w still think he’ll run well . My growing sense for a bottom weight winning because of the harsh conditions of the ground is a strong finisher over 4.5 miles is PANDA BOY . Just needs 1 to come out to get in off bottom weight
I’m on panda boy too . The better the ground the better his chance. That said; the weather won’t matter as the clerk of the course will put the fire hoses on to make sure it’s soft; all thanks to the Animal Rights crowd! But I’m sticking with him
@@kenns6105 Have seen the ground on National course ?,. No need to water that,. Its as desperate as it gets and rain is forecast right up until race day. Heavy ground is more or less certain.
Weight is slightly kind on coroch especially after gold cup run. However the gold cup takes alot from a horse. Then to go into a national could be too much. Gold cup toll may strike
The only thing that beats Corach is the rain. If its GS he wins. He's the best horse in the race, racing of a weight which suggests otherwise. Mahler mission is my EW but I just think CR wins unless it is soft / heavy and then obviously, he's vulnerable
Yeah. Stattler is the one. I have been following him sonce he won at Cheltenham. Clearly stays great. Superb chance despite a slightly high weight. If he is as good as he was when he won then he has to be a massive contender. As for galvin good chance but proven staying abilities, did unseat last year.
Different going but look at last year's race if knew it stayed distance vinellla would have been closer to pace .All over it this end BetMgm 100% boost😂
For a horse to be priced up on the day @ 33/1 the bookmaker's odds compiler would have believed it to have around a 2% (fair 50/1) chance of winning (2% + his mark up of 1% = 3% = 33/1 ). Something priced up at 100/1 would've been thought by the bookie's odds compiler as around a fair 0.25% etc. All those 2% chances and 1.5% and 1% and 0.25% etc of all the outsiders added up mean... By not giving a specific horse you're actually tipping one of the favourites.
@michaeljohnson5365 Meetingofthewaters is a good horse , under 11 stone decent chance. Not a major outsider. Although weight can hurt those with lots of weight especially in heavy ground those horses are often more proven at staying. Staying in always important regardless of ground.
Stattler won the national hunt chase over 3m5f ran against top horses in Ireland on his couple of starts this year not being beaten that far by galloping des champs think he’s been laid out for this by Mullins 40/1
@MrHotlipsholohan That's not nessararilly true. He was second over 4m at the Midlands national. 2cnd over 3m 5f at Warwick aswell. No horse is ever fully proven over 4m 5f till they have done it but no reason to think he won't stay. He was doing well in the race last year before getting unlucky. He has a chance if fully recovered from Midlands national run
@@nathanwhitehouse8237 Fair enough but the Midlands race was a tough slog too, moght need a rest after it, good ew, Meeting of the Waters for me or I am Maximus , do the reverse forecast and tk me later. , lol
@MrHotlipsholohan I have backed meetingofthewaters and I am maximus. I agree with your point about Mr incredible needing a rest. Been pointing that out to others. Its also why i put if fully recovered in my comment. I felt the need to correct your comment about his staying ability. For reverse forecast I would say 1st Stattler 2cnd Meetingofthewaters Notable others likely to do well Kitty's light (ground concerns) Mahler mission I am maximus.
@MrHotlipsholohan Obviously very unlikely to be able to predict the first 6 but I would say 1st Stattler ( Needs to be back to his best) 2cnd Meetingofthewaters 3rd I am maximus 4th Galia Des Liteux (Typical Skelton) 5th Kitty's light (Ground worries) 6th Corach Rambler ( Gold cup toll) I can see Vaniller and Mr incredible potentially being up there as well. Noble yeats maybe but the ground won't suit yeats will 11.11. Ain't that a shame apparently wasn't it's self last year could do better this time one to be aware of. I only back those I think have a chance at winning.
@@anjou6497 I dont speculate . I analyze hence my comment is not silly or arrogant . It is FACT. In a world where fools are easily parted with money FACT is a massive asset unlike sentiment and ignorance displayed enormously in your NONE factual post. Maybe it is you who should grow up and fact check before posting utter bull ?
@nathanwhitehouse8237 all fair points but missing cheltenham was a plus. Won't mind the ground and as a gold cup winner far far better than most of others in the race
Stattler won the national hunt chase over 3m5f ran against top horses in Ireland on his couple of starts this year not being beaten that far by galloping des champs think he’s been laid out for this by Mullins 40/1
I have followed Stattler since he won at Cheltenham. Mullins has run him at distances too short hence his recent lack of success. From his 3m 6f win at Cheltenham he will stay provided he is just as good as he was. Slightly high weight but that not unimaginably high goven his potential. He is my favourite. So hope he wins. He should do great providing he is as good as he was and that he doesn't get outpaced. Obviously has to be able to handle the Aintree fences. Mullins has laid him out for it. He was made for national this horse. Just look at Vaniller, Run wild fred form after losing to Stattler
Been hooked to your channel since Cheltenham. Great content and followed your tips ever since. Detailed insight.👍
Great work Dave love the videos u put lot effort in mate
Fair play to you for doing all that research
Coach Rambler with a stone more in his back over that 4 miles. It HAS to take it's tole at some point
I was there on gold cup day. Walking back down the chute after the race he was exhausted
"At some point" yes. Once he's been given enough. But Corach Rambler won last year with a lot more in hand than it might look, because he idles quite badly when in front. Difficult for the handicapper to know how much he had in hand... And has proved he's worthy of a far bigger weight by improving his form to be 3rd in the Cheltenham Gold Cup... Coming into this race again as the best handicapped horse in the field. ie His improvement means he is more than capable of carrying the greater weight.
Only 3 of the top 6 are running this year so if you ignore vanillier he won't get round twice it's between the two previously winners not a lot between them this year but if it's a slog PANDA BOY. STATLER and MISTER INCREDIBLE MUST ALL GO CLOSE
@anjou6497 I think that's his biggest issue. The Gold cup tires horses
@markchapman2933 True but the gold cup may have taken its toll. Tiring race.
Welcome back Dave can't wait to see what's coming up for spring.
The Grand National is the easiest race to make a profit on. So many once a year gamblers, so many don't understand how the race has changed, so many mug punters following "trends".... "It wants to be 8 or 9 years old". These two ages have enormously outnumbered those younger and older... Therefore you can expect more 8 and 9 year olds to have won the Grand National.... Also, since the needed changes to the fences, trainers have been running more younger horses. More 7 year olds running means there will be more 7 year olds winning the Grand National than there used to be.
Limerick Lace the most underrated horse in the market
On at 40s. Has massive chance
@@walshie2639 Maybe but unproven to stay , it would be a big risk given how staying is essential. I don't rate the race he won at Cheltenham very much
Limerick Lace would have a good chance if staying the trip. Was 2nd to Coko Beach over 3m but is effective at 2m4f. On good-soft maybe would have a chance. However, it looks as though the going will be at least Soft... And although she goes well on that surface it will likely place too much emphasis on stamina.
@@markchapman2933jumping would be an issue and you have to go back to 1951 for the last time a mare won this I reckon the other JP horse Meetingofthewaters is a good bet 👍🏻
Trip??? Age still a bit young. Why push a class horse over the GN so soon in its career? Id be surprised if it actually runs
Great info. Totally agree about Panda Boy, cliff horse
I have Corach Rambler at 16/1
Meetinofthewaters 161
Mr Incredible 40/1
Coco Beach 50/1
Chemical Energy 25/1
I am a maximus 12/1
So you are on nearly 20 % of the field ? Genius. Here is one certainty for you. FIVE of your horses will not win.
Fancy Mr Incredible. Ran a good race in last years GN before the saddle slipped. He was warming into it.
@@nickg2117 Messaged my friend who lives near course and he says hes never seen the ground so muddy so Mr Incredible is one of only a few I could back if I was gambling.
@@nickg2117I had him last year . So unlucky. Going to be hard though after running in the Midlands grand national.
I am maximus obvious chances. Similar to Burrows Saint from a previous year.
I have him
Mr incredible had him last year but could be tough after run in Midlands national. Wouldn't count out but that race may have taken something from him
Meetingofthewaters I also have him. Good place in the ultima, looked to stay. Looks to be a good horse, good weight. Question his age and maybe small Question on stamina but did stay in ultima. Coaroch rambler gold cup toll worries. Takes a lot from a horse.
Coko beach didn't do well last year and more weight this year. Not for me. Great at 3m but don't think he is a national horse
I keep coming back to Coko Beach. I get the fact he's been beaten twice in the race, but I think he's matured into a better horse this year and will love the heavy ground.
Obviously, he will have to give away a lump of weight, but his run in the beecher and troytown were really solid.
He was around a 3/1 shot for the cross county at Cheltenham before they voided the race, and now he is 40/1 here. Massive price.
I agree. I just hope the going stays soft. On yesterday @ 40s
Coko Beach has led the Grand National field twice and failed to stay twice. Has on a couple of occasions this season been ridden differently. Only racing handily in the Troytown and held up in the Becher... So there is a possibility that with more restraint might stay. But only might. I'd say most likely not. Got there going well enough in the Becher but barely got home over 3m2f. Failing to beat the 11 year old Chambard. The X Country he won in Ireland was 3 miles.
I don't think he stays. Had chances in English, Irish nationals but no success. Likely same outcome
@@nathanwhitehouse8237 correct he just doesn't get home and this year's race is. Much better tan last years
@@markchapman2933 All valid points. I would just posit that Chambard's performance that day was exceptional, which even vets are capable of once in a blue moon and no doubt the 22lb he received from Coko helped (5lb Claimer as well). Also, Coko won a National Trial comfortably over 28f at Punchestown in Feb '23. (53000 Euro's.) Still, racing is all about opinions & I love the back & forth with knowledgeable folks like you.
Happy Easter Dave 🐰🐣
Good luck & enjoy the racing 🐎
Gambled on it being better ground and went for galvin and desertmore house. Got them both in ew doubles with intense raffles from today so fingers crossed the sun comes out
Are you mad ? The National course is an absolute bog right now and rain is forecast every single day. Gambling on the weather when the ground is already heavy ? Clueless.
@@rapidreaperthe ground will be horrendous
@@rapidreaper My mate lives near the Blue Anchor pub. He says its a bog on the national course and pissing down constantly.
@@rapidreaperit’s soft to heavy at Aintree atm 👍🏻
Thanks for the info Dave - always like the trend horses 👍 Been backing Kittys Light for a while now and again when it went NRNB - also got Corach from last year and in Dec and also like the trend of Limerick Lace - the 100/1 shots always worth a couple of quid ew with extra places available. Opening a BFair account to add to my other 2 PP/Sky to take advantage of laying horses and covering my bets .
Like everything it’s still your choice to follow your advice or not - just gamble sensibly 👍
Look forward to next weeks video as well , recovering from a Hip Op so plenty of time to study the form - best of luck buddy 👍👍
@@anjou6497 thanks for your reply . Good luck with whatever you decide to back , can’t see Threethroughunderfive or whatever it’s called . All your others are decent ew prices ☘️👍
@@johnflanagan7136 Nicholls took him out the race. Said they were going sandown instead.
If KITTYS LIGHT wins then the national is finished
Corach rambler is not the best horse in the race GALVIN is but he likes good ground
@@trevormeeks4084 not quite sure how you work that out ? All about opinions though best of luck whatever you back 👍
The Goffer doesnt stay he should run in the Topham Chase
The Gopher wont be going anywhere near Aintree if that ground stays as it is today. . Its a bog.
Aintree soon dries out but the goffer won't stay or win if he started now
Galia Des Liteaux. 💥
Ive been loading up on him the last few weeks. He’s the pick for me anyways
@@Sheamus72 He's a She mate 😂👍 Good luck 🤞
I haven't backed her but it's Skelton so I wouldn't be too shocked. Low weight feels like a classic Skelton and nice enough price. I do like the race he came 2cnd in at Warwick and the winner went on to get third in the Midlands grand national close behind Mr incredible a horse I think is very good. I backed mr incredible in national last year when his saddle slipped to unseat the rider(so unlucky). Got a chance Galia Des liteux but she must be better than at Exeter
@@nathanwhitehouse8237 Forget Exeter, the race came too soon after Warwick and her best form is on left-handed tracks. She stays, she acts well on very soft ground and she jumps well. Can jump boldly, making lengths at her fences. Would like to see her a bit better handicapped but has only run once over an extreme trip so could well improve again. She'd be my best result.
@markchapman2933 Skeltons horses just turn on sometimes so I can easily write off the Exeter run. The rest of the form is good as I mentioned. Probably got fair chance.
I like Chemical Energy, I am on at 40/1 ew. I would like the ground to dry up a bit. He runs well fresh.
Good horse clearly after being close to Gallard Du Mesnil but would have been smashed by Mahler mission had he not fell. Mahler mission more weight at 9 pounds but could have the class to overcome that.
Think I’ve solved this years puzzle,it’s Janadil ,Delta work each way .Janadil is the one I think will run extremely well
Thanks, very interesting ! 👍
Happy Easter Dave
Kittys Light at 33/1 for me with wee one on nassalam in case it comes up heavy
Always put me off due to its size but has proved me wrong in two big races already and you can plough through the fences now , Only scary fence now is Valentines. Not sure it has class to win a modern National but will stay as for heavy ground ? Make no mistake . the ground could be as bad as bad as its ever been. Its a mud bath now with more rain forecast. Nassalam will be backed.
Great horse but I won't back until we know if decent ground as he likes better ground. Nasaalam good but welsh national winners don't have a great record in the English grand national
Nassalam will obviously love bottomless ground. But the Welsh Grand National form is not working out. Did win by a street but the second and third have disappointed since. Iwilldoit won the Welsh Nat' the previous season, but his subsequent form this season suggests he did not run anywhere near his best in third. Nassalam had ground conditions in his favour at Cheltenham and although 3m2f is a bit short for for him these days, should really have done better if he's to defy a mark of 161 at Aintree. Some 16 lbs higher than Chepstow.
@@nathanwhitehouse8237 Three winners of Welsh National have won Aintree National at combined odds of 60/1 past 25 years so not strictly true ?
@@simonchapman5560 3 in 25 years isn't a that great record
corach ramblers races this season mirror last end september november then cheltenham love to see this horse win but weight a worry
Bigger worry is the toll which the gold cup will have taken out of him. Gold cup takes a lot from a horse.
I bet him last year Dave but I think this year he had really hard race gold cup this time
Great work as always dave
"You don't want a horse who's already run in the Grand National and not won". The handicapper (the bloke that allotted the horses their weights) used to give more weight to horses who've run well over the unique Grand National fences. ie If two horses were thought as good as each other but one had run well over the course... then the horse with experience would be effectively punished by being given more weight. The new handicapper no longer does this. So horses with form over the course now have a better chance than previously.
Maybe. End of the day if you can jump well then the fences shouldn't be an issue. They are big but good jumpers will manage. Good jumpers generally use less energy aswell. Irish like using the cross country at Cheltenham to train but it was abandoned so good horses may have not shown their quality yet
Panda Boy needs better ground,Desertmore House would be interesting if he got in
Hi Dave, i haven't managed to move on from cheltenham yet, although i do think there are two good bets in the national if the ground came up good in vanillier and chemical energy. Going back to cheltenham, who do you think are going to be the top novice chasers and hurdlers for next years festival
Majborough, Ballyburn if they go Chasing.
Not so sure on chemical energy. He has 9 pounds on mahler mission but mahler mission would have crushed chemical energy had he not fell
I AM MAXIMUS for me Dave
Got a chance, yes. But take a look at all of IAM's races and you'll see he is perhaps the worst jumper in the field.
@@markchapman2933 I agree with that but ever since he won the Irish national last year for a horse with so inexperienced he will get better with jumping over time and the last day he gave VANILLIER a 16l pasting plus the national fences these days are less forgiving
@@garydent3904 Immediately after the Irish National last year, I was thinking the same Gary. But this season has brought no improvement on the jumping front, Even in the Bobbyjoe he often jumped left-handed and slower than Vanillier. closing back up only on the flat. Form books tend to summarise too much. This is how I saw his round: Jumped left throughout, stuttered into the 2nd, put in a short one and mistake 8th, slow 9th, 10th and 11th (each time knocking him back briefly in last position), slow at next two, badly left 5 out. Challenged between runners 2 out, led soon after. Going clear without much effort when a difference of opinion with rider at the last, putting in a short one and mistake, jumping left and slow. went further clear run-in. Much easier to get away with in a 4 runner race. The poor jumping is not a novice thing anymore, it appears just part of the horse he is now.
@@garydent3904 Of IAM's rivals in the Bobbyjoe: The last of 4 Fury Road should (yet again) have been pulled up and has probably been amiss all season. Bobbyjoe third Minella Crooner was an extremely lucky winner on reappearance. Something went wrong with the odds-on fav Bronn and the eventual second blundered at the last handing it to MC. Then greatly flattered; 20 lengths behind going down the hill to 2 out in the New Years Day Chase, but winner Jungle Boogie and notorious weak finisher Classic Getaway had gone too fast too soon. MC closing up as the other two were out on their feet. Bobbyjoe second Vanillier was very weak in the market that day, possibly because he is best under less testing conditions and / or not fit enough. I Am Maximus the only one to show his form. Might have improved, difficult to judge. Certainly has potential to improve given another extreme test of stamina, but will he get round? Seems a bad price to me.
@@garydent3904 The National fences are (rightly imo) more forgiving, but statistically the course still produces a larger percentage of faller / unseats than any other course in Britain or Ireland... And in any race it is not just falling / unseating that's the problem (If I remember rightly IAM is yet to fall / unseat) It's losing ground to his rivals at those fences. Likely to lose more ground in the Grand National than any other race.
One that I've been keeping a eye on is desertmore house, was entered but pulled out of Irish national needing 7 to come out to even get a run, but has a good ew chance at 40s I think if he gets in, shortened into 33s but back out to 40s today, it's on the cusp, I've got a saver of corach at 20s aswell
Corach gold cup toll worries. It takes a lot from a horse.
Desertmore appears to have staying chances, signs of staying and low weight. Not had a great season though and cleatus poolaw in second didn't do much at Cheltenham. Desertmore not ruled out but risky based on lack of solid staying abilities. Not for me but maybe has a ew chance. I think you should only back if you think they have a fair chance to win though
@nathanwhitehouse8237 yeah I had a small multiple of 3 winners ropey guest 33s ballyburn 7s & lossiemouth at 7/2 running onto corach at 20s, but opted to cash that
@@mallloyd5551 Lossiemouth Ballyburn should be great horses for the future. Majborough aswell. Sadly mullins doesn't know what to do with Majborough yet.
@nathanwhitehouse8237 Willie probably won't know till March 2025 what to do with him
happy easter Dave
Janadil e/w still think he’ll run well .
My growing sense for a bottom weight winning because of the harsh conditions of the ground is a strong finisher over 4.5 miles is PANDA BOY .
Just needs 1 to come out to get in off bottom weight
I am maximum.... im all over it
Good chance for I am maximus, nice weight. Could be the next Burrows Saint. Mullins seems to rate him aswell
Galvin for me
On heavy ground ? I dont think so.
bloody hell dave i like to take your knowledge on board but got it down to two
vanillier &
panda boy and you dissed the pair lol
i'm on panda boy 40/1
vanillier ran a blinder in it last year also, but old now
I’m on panda boy too . The better the ground the better his chance. That said; the weather won’t matter as the clerk of the course will put the fire hoses on to make sure it’s soft; all thanks to the Animal Rights crowd! But I’m sticking with him
@@kenns6105 Have seen the ground on National course ?,. No need to water that,. Its as desperate as it gets and rain is forecast right up until race day. Heavy ground is more or less certain.
Coarch Rambler has a good weight all considering it could of been far worst it won't be a problem he's going to bolt up
Weight is slightly kind on coroch especially after gold cup run. However the gold cup takes alot from a horse. Then to go into a national could be too much. Gold cup toll may strike
The only thing that beats Corach is the rain. If its GS he wins. He's the best horse in the race, racing of a weight which suggests otherwise. Mahler mission is my EW but I just think CR wins unless it is soft / heavy and then obviously, he's vulnerable
Gold cup toll could be an issue. It can take a lot from a horse
Love u dude but slow down a bit. Regnal thing you get my drift?
I love the races I am thinking chemical or kitty but it's any
Afternoon Dave
I had the grand national winner since Red Rums Days 20 years
Red Rum won its last National 47 years ago you absolute mug .
I quite like Galvin and the Stattler
Yeah. Stattler is the one. I have been following him sonce he won at Cheltenham. Clearly stays great. Superb chance despite a slightly high weight. If he is as good as he was when he won then he has to be a massive contender. As for galvin good chance but proven staying abilities, did unseat last year.
Different going but look at last year's race if knew it stayed distance vinellla would have been closer to pace .All over it this end BetMgm 100% boost😂
a HUGE outsider will win this year
Why? What is the logic for that?
For a horse to be priced up on the day @ 33/1 the bookmaker's odds compiler would have believed it to have around a 2% (fair 50/1) chance of winning (2% + his mark up of 1% = 3% = 33/1 ). Something priced up at 100/1 would've been thought by the bookie's odds compiler as around a fair 0.25% etc. All those 2% chances and 1.5% and 1% and 0.25% etc of all the outsiders added up mean... By not giving a specific horse you're actually tipping one of the favourites.
@@nathanwhitehouse8237 heavy ground this year! a lot of the top horses are carrying 11stone plus i think a horse carrying 10 stone will win this year
@michaeljohnson5365 Meetingofthewaters is a good horse , under 11 stone decent chance. Not a major outsider. Although weight can hurt those with lots of weight especially in heavy ground those horses are often more proven at staying. Staying in always important regardless of ground.
Stattler won the national hunt chase over 3m5f ran against top horses in Ireland on his couple of starts this year not being beaten that far by galloping des champs think he’s been laid out for this by Mullins 40/1
Like Stattler ,he hasn’t a high cruising speed and needs to lay up early in race .
Limerick lace will be in the firset 4
Maybe. Staying questions though and I don't rate the race he won at Cheltenham.
Why risk souring a class horse so early in their career? Be surprised if it runs
@@spindrifter7519 J P Mcmanus likes the National and wants National winners hence why he is willing to put his horses into it.
What about Mr Incredible
Doesn't stay 4.5
@MrHotlipsholohan That's not nessararilly true. He was second over 4m at the Midlands national. 2cnd over 3m 5f at Warwick aswell. No horse is ever fully proven over 4m 5f till they have done it but no reason to think he won't stay. He was doing well in the race last year before getting unlucky. He has a chance if fully recovered from Midlands national run
@@nathanwhitehouse8237 Fair enough but the Midlands race was a tough slog too, moght need a rest after it, good ew, Meeting of the Waters for me or I am Maximus , do the reverse forecast and tk me later. , lol
@MrHotlipsholohan I have backed meetingofthewaters and I am maximus. I agree with your point about Mr incredible needing a rest. Been pointing that out to others. Its also why i put if fully recovered in my comment. I felt the need to correct your comment about his staying ability.
For reverse forecast I would say
1st Stattler
2cnd Meetingofthewaters
Notable others likely to do well
Kitty's light (ground concerns)
Mahler mission
I am maximus.
@MrHotlipsholohan Obviously very unlikely to be able to predict the first 6 but I would say
1st Stattler ( Needs to be back to his best)
2cnd Meetingofthewaters
3rd I am maximus
4th Galia Des Liteux (Typical Skelton)
5th Kitty's light (Ground worries)
6th Corach Rambler ( Gold cup toll)
I can see Vaniller and Mr incredible potentially being up there as well. Noble yeats maybe but the ground won't suit yeats will 11.11. Ain't that a shame apparently wasn't it's self last year could do better this time one to be aware of. I only back those I think have a chance at winning.
The goffer has no chance
Depends if he stays. Clearly a quality horse . Got entrires in other things. May not run
could be heavy ground this year
@@anjou6497 he’s not running in the grand national he’s running in the aintree bowl
@@anjou6497 Hewick is not even declared. God is it any wonder mugs are easily parted with their money ?
@@michaelwalker5686 Hewick wont be seen at Aintree at all. Not on that ground. Will save it for Punchestown.
Already is heavy with rain forecast every day.
@@anjou6497 I dont speculate . I analyze hence my comment is not silly or arrogant . It is FACT. In a world where fools are easily parted with money FACT is a massive asset unlike sentiment and ignorance displayed enormously in your NONE factual post. Maybe it is you who should grow up and fact check before posting utter bull ?
Kittyes light dose not like it soft
Just one irish so aintree next
Grand National 2024
Winner. PANDA BOY 🏋♂️🤓👍
Got 40/1 on i am maximus
Wow. Good odds. I think he has a great chance. Reminds me of Burrows saint. Could go one better than Burrows Saint dud in the national
Commentium leviosar
Blimey you're getting as bad as Andrew Mount 😂 What about the old system of sticking a pin in?!
Conflicted 66-1 ew 6 places
Bit too high weight. Slight age issue. He is a bit particular with ground. Not for me.
Minella indo
Probably a bit too much weight. Didn't seem to stay up the Cheltenham hill in 2022 gold cup. Age worries. Bit too risky
@nathanwhitehouse8237 all fair points but missing cheltenham was a plus. Won't mind the ground and as a gold cup winner far far better than most of others in the race
@markluxon5044 Absolutely certainly a classy horse. He has his positives, which follow that. Missing Cheltenham probably will have helped
Video way to long.
Stattler won the national hunt chase over 3m5f ran against top horses in Ireland on his couple of starts this year not being beaten that far by galloping des champs think he’s been laid out for this by Mullins 40/1
I have followed Stattler since he won at Cheltenham. Mullins has run him at distances too short hence his recent lack of success. From his 3m 6f win at Cheltenham he will stay provided he is just as good as he was. Slightly high weight but that not unimaginably high goven his potential. He is my favourite. So hope he wins. He should do great providing he is as good as he was and that he doesn't get outpaced. Obviously has to be able to handle the Aintree fences. Mullins has laid him out for it. He was made for national this horse. Just look at Vaniller, Run wild fred form after losing to Stattler