8:15 why are you completely ignoring the diminishing returns? In 2017 it was 20x and in 2021 it was 10x, so it's much more probable to be 5x this time than 10 or 20x 🤷♂️
Sovereign funds. Huge difference between retail/corporate funds and Sovereign Wealth Funds. If the US creates a bitcoin reserve, other countries will soon follow. 500k-1mil if the reserves are created.
Remember the last cycle was manipulated and dampened with a guy ending up in prison. We ended up with a double top instead of a blow off top similar to 2017. This cycle may resemble 2017 with a blow off top. NFA
Seems like the returns decrease over the 4 year periods to me. 20x to 10x. So although I do expect at least a 5x, I’m not so sure it’ll 10-20x. However, there are key differences and many strengths we didn’t have before working in Bitcoin’s favor, so I also wouldn’t be surprised if this cycle turned out to be much different in an unbelievable way and I hope it is for all of us who’ve had the bravery to put our money where our mouth is and believe in something with undeniably great potential.
Stock to flow is also used for commodities like gold and stocks like Amazon but yet it has nothing to do with scarcity, like you mentioned. Gold reserves continue to be found and it’s not as scarce as as we think.
Gold is getting more scarce. There may be a lot of gold in the ground but the grades have gradually decreased over the centuries. 1oz/ton gold was a decent grade decades ago, now 1oz/ton (31grams) is a bonanza grade and under 1 gram per ton has to be satisfactory and more typical. It's kind of like a halving. In fact going from 1oz/ton to 1g/ton is five halvings.
Do you have any data for the chart going back before the $30 peak at 2011, when Bitcoin was well under a dollar? It would be interesting to see the patterns there, though the 200 week MA wouldn't have existed I guess!
Dear planB, The top from the latest bullrun was not as high as the ones before. How can you say that the bullrun 24/25 wil get higher and wil go to the top of the cycle??
I'm looking at the curves here particularly the moving averages and realising this is very similar to the case graphs for disease epidemics. Upside slowing gradually on a log-linear chart.
my man i love your analysis many times i might not agree with u but i love that u have chosen your models u work on them and u never shill us anything or ask us to use promo codes or bs like buy your premium subscription. for me bitcoin analysis online its 2 people Plan B, and Bob Loukas 2 different views in many ways but both crystal clear with no bs. keep it up plan b
@@whatarefriends4 100k is still higher than $15k which is still higher than $3k which is still higher than $150 which is still higher than $2. Those are the prices of each “crash”
I’ve been watching so many people with opinions with their theories on btc cycles and giving explanations and reasoning on where price will go but one thing is none of these people spend much time on discussing supply shock. They are still too focused on traditional ways of analyzing because they have never experienced anything with limited supply. Already we are seeing any dips being bought up imagine when countries and states start buying. They won’t be selling at a top they’ll hold same as many people, investment firms companies etc. Any selling will get bought up even more rapidly with adoption. I really think this is the most important point that will propel us in a straight line to a million and beyond with small dips along the way.
“If history is a guide” - we see the 200 week RSI touches the 2Y realised price in each cycle except for the present. Diminishing returns in play. I’ll be happy with 200k but sadly see the S2F breaking this cycle. Each to their own.
Staring at the charts as he is speaking it feels like each cycle is slightly lower than the last as maybe due to law of large numbers. Incredible charts as always. Time will tell!
PlanB ,thank you for all your hard work which you share for free. Had I not followed you , I would have sold BTC years ago for very little profit. God bless you Sir !
I think the Stock-to-Flow model faced these complications because of ETFs and altcoins. If it were just Bitcoin as a currency, it would be hitting the mark. But this is good because I can buy slowly over time and focus on the long term.
May be think of 'DCA out'... 16% - 33% - 50%... This way you are left with higher and safer returns in total and a secured reserve of about 33% of your overall capital incl. gains. You never know... ;)
How to fit the diminishing returns on the possibility of hyperbitcoinization? Diminishing returns doesn’t lead to the conclusion that in about 2 cicles the cicles would be basically over (i.e. the price would be stable)? It seems to me that this diminishing returns theory is against S2F model and even against the scenario of hyperbitcoinization.
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@planb_bitcoin where can I see the real time chart?
good channel
Subscribed!
Like, sub, share!
ruclips.net/video/pQ7fjpqzUS4/видео.htmlsi=e9qAicp2y5E730Y0
Janury + 100 days to run!
I am so thankful for your expertise Plan B
Thank you this is a great month for BTC and XAI140E©
Thanks again for your Analysis mr Plan B. I still think the S2F model is spot non! unbelieveable and so true. I love it when a plan comes together.
GREAT CHART! 😊👍👍👍👍👍
I am a simple person. I see a PlanB video I hit LIKE!
First thing I did
Me too😂
Bunch of morons. Must have never seen this guys charts last cycle got all his crap wrong
Wish you could do that for a Simple HODLER
Good luck losing all your money, plan B is a shmuck
Swapping ETH to XAI140E© clean decision, let's go
Blessing Mister Plan B
8:15 why are you completely ignoring the diminishing returns? In 2017 it was 20x and in 2021 it was 10x, so it's much more probable to be 5x this time than 10 or 20x 🤷♂️
Sovereign funds. Huge difference between retail/corporate funds and Sovereign Wealth Funds. If the US creates a bitcoin reserve, other countries will soon follow. 500k-1mil if the reserves are created.
His last video (or before that) he made the calculations taking taht into account
Remember the last cycle was manipulated and dampened with a guy ending up in prison. We ended up with a double top instead of a blow off top similar to 2017. This cycle may resemble 2017 with a blow off top. NFA
@@aggieboi3510 good to know that this cycle is not manipulated at all. Thank god.
Do not count on a bitcoin reserve to happen still in this cycle
You remind me when that DOGE and PEPE things went all wild, but now repeating with XAI140E©
You are just Amazing man!!.. Hats off!! 🎉❤
As always thank you PlanB
Love these monthly update videos! 👏🏼
XAI140E© gonna go on a run, all the way UP!
Seems like the returns decrease over the 4 year periods to me. 20x to 10x. So although I do expect at least a 5x, I’m not so sure it’ll 10-20x. However, there are key differences and many strengths we didn’t have before working in Bitcoin’s favor, so I also wouldn’t be surprised if this cycle turned out to be much different in an unbelievable way and I hope it is for all of us who’ve had the bravery to put our money where our mouth is and believe in something with undeniably great potential.
Muchisimísimas Gracias! Muchas gracias. Thanks a lot
Thanks again for sharing your insights.
Stock to flow is also used for commodities like gold and stocks like Amazon but yet it has nothing to do with scarcity, like you mentioned. Gold reserves continue to be found and it’s not as scarce as as we think.
Gold is getting more scarce. There may be a lot of gold in the ground but the grades have gradually decreased over the centuries. 1oz/ton gold was a decent grade decades ago, now 1oz/ton (31grams) is a bonanza grade and under 1 gram per ton has to be satisfactory and more typical. It's kind of like a halving. In fact going from 1oz/ton to 1g/ton is five halvings.
Do you have any data for the chart going back before the $30 peak at 2011, when Bitcoin was well under a dollar? It would be interesting to see the patterns there, though the 200 week MA wouldn't have existed I guess!
Dear planB, The top from the latest bullrun was not as high as the ones before. How can you say that the bullrun 24/25 wil get higher and wil go to the top of the cycle??
Tell me more about XAI140E© haha
It’s not just the halving it’s the liquidity available in the market
Fascinating chart, nice work 👍🏻
I'm looking at the curves here particularly the moving averages and realising this is very similar to the case graphs for disease epidemics. Upside slowing gradually on a log-linear chart.
my man i love your analysis many times i might not agree with u but i love that u have chosen your models u work on them and u never shill us anything or ask us to use promo codes or bs like buy your premium subscription. for me bitcoin analysis online its 2 people Plan B, and Bob Loukas 2 different views in many ways but both crystal clear with no bs. keep it up plan b
ben cowen too
Scammer
From The Netherlands, no doubt. Like I hear myself.
You are right, but his English accent and pronounciation, at least to me, is very impressive.
Been collecting the XAI140E© this cycle as that has the right place in this time
Great job ! Thanks 🙂
Didnt know there are videos at all. subscribed ;) He's a LEGEND
What a time to be alive!
Soon, we'll be looking back to these sub $100k days in disbelief.
You’ll be in disbelief alright. When it all comes crashing down
@@whatarefriends4 I'll rejoice because I would buy at discounted price.
@@whatarefriends4 100k is still higher than $15k which is still higher than $3k which is still higher than $150 which is still higher than $2. Those are the prices of each “crash”
@@whatarefriends4 I think you sold?
@@whatarefriends4 stay ignorant, fool 🤣🤡🤡🤡
Been waiting on this today! Thanks for the Alpha.
For the next bullrun and yes that's still out there, XAI140E© gonna be the main horse
Thank you Plan B!
Thanks for your hard work
please make a new video, i sincerely value your thesis with the s2f model
From the charts btc shows diminishing upside movement. I see a top in this cycle from 150 to 200k
I always enjoy your videos waaaaay more then i should lol. Keep up the good work 👏. Love from the Netherlands 🇳🇱 ;-)
Thanks 🙏 for the information!🇨🇦👍
A Plan B fan for some time now
Through all of this, he’s done his best to honest with us!
So what your prediction for end of year?
I loved it again! And am grateful for all your analysis. Thank you so much, Plan B! 🙏
The law of diminishing returns is Moot now because of a huge demand I guess.
lol this is gonna be a wild ride bro
I’ve been watching so many people with opinions with their theories on btc cycles and giving explanations and reasoning on where price will go but one thing is none of these people spend much time on discussing supply shock. They are still too focused on traditional ways of analyzing because they have never experienced anything with limited supply. Already we are seeing any dips being bought up imagine when countries and states start buying. They won’t be selling at a top they’ll hold same as many people, investment firms companies etc. Any selling will get bought up even more rapidly with adoption. I really think this is the most important point that will propel us in a straight line to a million and beyond with small dips along the way.
Why does he keep saying the ATH in 2017 was ten thousand? It was over 20k at peak in late 2017...
He said way above 10k.
Ya bloody banana 🍌
Was just under $20k. Never actually hit $20k in 2017 bull run.
@joefunk76 Depends on what exchange you're looking at. Some had wicks over 20k
Man this video is gold!
Have you by any chance got a podcast?
Is XAI140E© still usable? I wanna have some of that
Could you say samething about altcoin season pls.
Thank you, PlanB, for all the time and effort you put into producing quality content
Do you think BTC will break back? Any thoughts for XAI140E©?
Thank you for converting me to Bitcoin back in 2018. You opened my eyes in such an incredible way. You’re like a god when it comes to Bitcoin!
Why altcoin crashing? 😢😭
Big Fan from Thailand
Same here 😊
BTC สู้ๆ
Elon knew the XAI140E© idea and the key changes coming with it, better be prepared for a large run
first the dog, then the car, then the house, but eventually got my XAI140E©
Thank you for your time and information 🙏
Thank you
“If history is a guide” - we see the 200 week RSI touches the 2Y realised price in each cycle except for the present. Diminishing returns in play. I’ll be happy with 200k but sadly see the S2F breaking this cycle. Each to their own.
Yes, this cycle looks very different from previous ones
140k tops
@@BrosinsMusicwhen people are still doubting Bitcoin I know it can go much higher
Subscribed!
This is my third halving. My take 2025 we will be a very exciting year, even more so than 2024. Ja, Well done Dutchman!
This is my first one. What do you think about the predictions at 5:52?
My hero! 😄
Thank you PlanB I always look farward for your videos to come out every month! Spot on!!
Staring at the charts as he is speaking it feels like each cycle is slightly lower than the last as maybe due to law of large numbers. Incredible charts as always. Time will tell!
If multiples up are declining with each new 4yr cycle, then why do you think this cycle's multiple would be just as high as in past cycles?
Can anyone explain XAI140E©? Everwhere XAI140E©
🎉🎉🎉. Excellent 👍👍. Even if I reduce the bullish projected price hikes of Bitcoin by 50 percent, it is still Great 👍 👍
So funny, when I heard that I stopped the video and checked the comments. Low and behold a comment here at minute 8:15
How long can we bring XAI140E© up?
PlanB ,thank you for all your hard work which you share for free.
Had I not followed you , I would have sold BTC years ago for very little profit.
God bless you Sir !
Time to zoom out on these charts (1m -> 10m)
Thank you!!
Thanks talking cap with laser eyes. Very insightful. The laser eyes help with measuring^^
I think the Stock-to-Flow model faced these complications because of ETFs and altcoins. If it were just Bitcoin as a currency, it would be hitting the mark. But this is good because I can buy slowly over time and focus on the long term.
first halving 100x second 20x third 10x maybe this time will be 2x so from the halving 55k-60k 2x will be 110k-120k
Happy times!
Explains things well... I like it..
The XAI140E© uses different AI which has not been used by anyone, it makes sense and it should allow steady growth with no human interference needed
Thank you for the early macro Christmas present PlanB!
XAI140E© and BRETT are kings this cycle
Thanks for the update, I love your videos!
PEPE, SHIB, DOGE all memes dead but $XAI140E thrives
Great as always 👍👍
The best bitcoin update vídeo, by faaaaar. Thank you!
Is PlanB actually the actor Javier Bardem?
It’s actually Bane from “the Dark Knight Rises”.
Toss the coin
@@benforrest8590 exactly
Its the Dude , Mr Lebowski
If these kind of predictions gonna happen what then would be with step finance???
Great thanks PlanB!
👍👍👍
Plan B changed my life. 😊
Diminishing returns. About 150k is what I anticipate
150k would be really nice
May be think of 'DCA out'... 16% - 33% - 50%... This way you are left with higher and safer returns in total and a secured reserve of about 33% of your overall capital incl. gains. You never know... ;)
16% taking profits at your limit... 🎉
Thank you sir for another spectacular video!
Bitcoin has no top because fiat has no bottom. 😉
This guy Bitcoins 👆
wait where are the other charts?
Heel erg bedankt!!!
But if you see the halving first one 100x second 20x third 10x maybe this time will be 2x so from the halving will be 55k-60k 2x 110k-120k
8:11 Diminishing returns. It will be 5x at best. So, 42K x 5 = 210K
We can play with some numbers to get a range: 4x =168K or 3x. = 126K
How to fit the diminishing returns on the possibility of hyperbitcoinization? Diminishing returns doesn’t lead to the conclusion that in about 2 cicles the cicles would be basically over (i.e. the price would be stable)? It seems to me that this diminishing returns theory is against S2F model and even against the scenario of hyperbitcoinization.
PlanB thank you
Plan B means "Plan of the Bestest" and I am a follower of the bestest.
Thank You Sir 🙏🏻
Pure pleasure to listen
"all models are wrong, some are useful"
Thanks and Best Regards fm Sorrento Italy
Greetings from Sunny Bradenton Florida 👍 Thanks Plan B...
Plan B is plan A😂😂
Plan Bitcoin
Not Plan Altcoins
Think about it