August jobs data 'screams' 25 bps cut from Fed: Economist
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- Опубликовано: 17 сен 2024
- The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that 142,000 nonfarm jobs were added to the labor market in August, below expectations for 165,000. The unemployment rate eased to 4.2% and average hourly wages moved higher to 3.8%. The Morning Brief welcomes RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas and Academy Securities Head of Macro Strategy Peter Tchir to discuss and react to the August jobs print. Brusuelas looks back to July's data set that worried Wall Street of an impending recession: "I'm going to set July aside, and say that's a seasonal issue. That does not mean that the labor market is turning over, it just means we're cooling the 4.2% unemployment rate. Well guys, this just screams 25 basis points at the Fed [Federal Reserve]. This report doesn't scream 50 basis points on its surface." Federal Reserve officials were closely watching this report as a guide for their interest rate-cutting policies ahead of the central bank's September meeting. "I think the unemployment rate is key," Tchir says, agreeing with Brusuelas. "That's going to keep the Fed on hold. There are just enough jobs this month even with the downward revisions. So I think the market is going to have to digest probably only 25 [basis points]."
#youtube #news #stockmarket
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Hey all, notice how we keep finding out about jobs being lower than expected over the past 3 months. Tech is STILL laying off, and the layoff fever has spread to other private industries. Government jobs have ballooned, and so have jobs in healthcare.
And that won't last, because the government is going into exponentially more debt to keep that charade afloat. Even government workers will be getting laid off by the hundreds of thousands over 2025 and 2026. There won't even be enough $13 an hour jobs for the millions of salaried workers who lose their jobs.
The government and mainstream media can cook job numbers better than Gordon Ramsey cooks pasta!
They are horrible at it. Even the liberal is waking up 😮
And we all know only you know the real numbers. 😂
@@damham5689 Maybe we know better after the revision :))
The revisions downward when nobody is paying attention is always what cracks me up. Even then, unemployment is WAY higher than is being announced.
@@enthused7591 Give us the actual numbers, and how you determined them.
Wow! So now our credit card 💳 rates will go from 29% to 28.75%. The banks and Wall Street are so kind 😡 🏦 💰
I wanted to a $1 million dollars paycheck last week, but didnt. Does that mean I lost money ? Just as stupid as "experts" guestimating to see specific number of new jobs and the real numbers dont match. So they panick.
142,000 part time, low paying jobs added for the tens of thousands of people who lost their good paying jobs, now needing 2 part time jobs to be able to afford food. The writing's on the wall. Can't have asset values this far out of balance with the median income and not expect a sharp correction. All the math is worse than 2008 by a minimum of 30%, without exception.
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So does that mean you’ve left the market? Everything’s in cash now? Or maybe NFT trading cards are the smart place to park your assets?
@@cswanson4476 All cash, have been for months. Only gamblers are left in the market. The stock market will be down 60% over the next few months, where it'll stay for years. And the housing market will do exactly the same thing. Used vehicles already are dropping at those rates and those always precede the housing crash whenever both are in a bubble. Since you're new to economics, rapid deflation means the dollar strengthens equivalently to the percentage of deflation, meaning cash will go up 60% relative to asset values - you will get 60% of your buying power back over the next 12-24 months if you're in cash as there's a race to the bottom when people fire sale everything they own for whatever anyone's willing to pay. Condos in Florida are down 30+% in value already and that's just begun. Condos will likely crash 70%.
To think the Fed is going cut 50bps is absurd, but thanks to these absurd assumptions, I am able to keep adding at the lows.
The funny thing is it doesn't matter one way or another. This is the most overleveraged consumer in world history, so what's inevitable is a 60% stock market crash, a 60% real estate crash and roughly 15% unemployment all over a 5-year depression starting now. Interest rates don't mean anything when the consumer is in the most high-interest debt ever, has the lowest personal savings rate ever, and just agreed to finance $350,000 on a home worth $175,000 while their taxes, insurance, groceries, transportation and utilities go up 50% - and then they lose their job. That's what's happening.
@@enthused7591 when ai strikes after the election, the unemployment rate will get even worse.
@@enthused7591So are you all in cash at this point? Gold? How about digital trading cards? What’s the play, you think, in this depression we’re in now?
Wait till the revisions come in.
25bps cut, clear, real and Inevitable complete....
@@milosnestorovic1594 couldn't agree more, anymore and they will panic
@@fabiGBOtown The decision must Inevitably, it is clear well known, do not panic, Realistic and Rational Absolutely complete....
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All of what these economists say depends on if the government numbers for today’s job data is accurate. Otherwise if numbers are worse than what came out today we could face the possibility of a recession, as well as a 50 bp cut.
25 basis pt really? Don’t kid yourself , it’s not going to be a soft landing.
Hard to generate jobs at full employment? Nonsense
I think with the drop in the markets and housing and jobs the best result would be a 50 bps cut.
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People still keep spending so keep the rate high and let natural recession happen.
Can we just say the quiet part out loud? A lot of these layoffs is do to companies wanting to replace there work force with AI. To top it all off no presidential candidate is addressing this issue. It will have to be us the working class, it's time to go Luddite on this.
No, it's not. AI is meaningless right now and will be for the next 5-7 years. They're laying people off by the tens of thousands because the consumer is the poorest they've ever been due to cost of living outpacing our wages by 40% for the first time in world history. They're not having AI replace workers, they're having people who are willing to work for half price replace their workers.
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The Fed is way behind. A 100bps is needed.
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