AMOC Collapse Probability by 2050 Pegged Between 42% and 76% in new Preprint
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- Опубликовано: 18 окт 2024
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AMOC Collapse Probability by 2050 Pegged Between 42% and 76% in new Preprint
The Atlantic Ocean's currents are on the verge of collapse. This is what it means for the planet
www.sciencefoc...
NASA visualization of ocean currents: Perpetual Ocean
• NASA | Perpetual Ocean
Earth Nullschool visualization of ocean currents:
earth.nullscho...
Google Earth
earth.google.c...
New preprint paper: Probability Estimates of a 21st Century AMOC Collapse
Abstract
There is increasing concern that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) may collapse this century with a disrupting societal impact on large parts of the world. Preliminary estimates of the probability of such an AMOC collapse have so far been based on conceptual models and statistical analyses of proxy data. Here, we provide observationally based estimates of such probabilities from reanalysis data. We first identify optimal observation regions of an AMOC collapse from a recent global climate model simulation. Salinity data near the southern boundary of the Atlantic turn out to be optimal to provide estimates of the time of the AMOC collapse in this model. Based on the reanalysis products, we next determine probability density functions of the AMOC collapse time. The collapse time is estimated between 2037-2064 (10-90% CI) with a mean of 2050 and the probability of an AMOC collapse before the year 2050 is estimated to be
59 ± 17%.
arxiv.org/html...
I repeat the last sentence of this abstract:
The collapse time (of the AMOC) is estimated between 2037-2064 (10-90% CI) with a mean of 2050 and the probability of an AMOC collapse before the year 2050 is estimated to be
59 ± 17%.
That is a probability of between 42% and 76% for an AMOC collapse before 2050. 2050 is only 26 years from now.
Wow. Mind boggling...
Towards two decades of Atlantic Ocean mass and heat transports at 26.5°
royalsocietypu...
Global and European climate impacts of a slowdown of the AMOC in a high resolution GCM
link.springer....
Climate impacts of a weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a warming climate
www.science.or...
Persistent freshening of the Arctic Ocean and changes in the North Atlantic salinity caused by Arctic sea ice decline
link.springer....
RAPID: 26 degrees N: Monitoring the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to understand climate change:
rapid.ac.uk/
Deeper and stronger North Atlantic Gyre
www.nature.com...
Observed fingerprint of a weakening Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation
www.nature.com...
Current Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation weakest in last millennium
www.nature.com...
Google Scholar: AMOC weakening
scholar.google...
scholar.google...
Impacts of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation weakening on Arctic amplification
www.pnas.org/d...
Perplexity.ai summary: AMOC Weakening:
www.perplexity...
Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos joining the dot on abrupt climate system mayhem
![COLOMBIA vs. CHILE [4-0] | RESUMEN | ELIMINATORIAS SUDAMERICANAS | FECHA 10](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/TDjN4W3yy1k/mqdefault.jpg)
Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos joining the dot on abrupt climate system mayhem
AMOC Collapse Probability by 2050 Pegged Between 42% and 76% in new Preprint
The Atlantic Ocean's currents are on the verge of collapse. This is what it means for the planet
www.sciencefocus.com/comment/atlantic-current-collapse
NASA visualization of ocean currents: Perpetual Ocean
ruclips.net/video/CCmTY0PKGDs/видео.htmlsi=zkqRmCPT9pzffz37
Earth Nullschool visualization of ocean currents:
earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/orthographic=-12.94,52.31,1132/loc=-62.862,39.020
Google Earth
earth.google.com/web/search/Mersey+Dock+%26+Harbour+Co+Ltd,+Port+of+Liverpool,+Liverpool,+UK/@54.26668504,-2.90256419,282.51670193a,1256808.89574632d,35y,-4.96895638h,5.93499128t,0r/data=CiwiJgokCad8AHgK_k7AEX-EMiIdMU_AGdbjgEPwRk3AIUmy8ctroE3AQgIIAToDCgEwSg0I____________ARAA
New preprint paper: Probability Estimates of a 21st Century AMOC Collapse
Abstract
There is increasing concern that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) may collapse this century with a disrupting societal impact on large parts of the world. Preliminary estimates of the probability of such an AMOC collapse have so far been based on conceptual models and statistical analyses of proxy data. Here, we provide observationally based estimates of such probabilities from reanalysis data. We first identify optimal observation regions of an AMOC collapse from a recent global climate model simulation. Salinity data near the southern boundary of the Atlantic turn out to be optimal to provide estimates of the time of the AMOC collapse in this model. Based on the reanalysis products, we next determine probability density functions of the AMOC collapse time. The collapse time is estimated between 2037-2064 (10-90% CI) with a mean of 2050 and the probability of an AMOC collapse before the year 2050 is estimated to be
59 ± 17%.
arxiv.org/html/2406.11738v1#bib.bib12
I repeat the last sentence of this abstract:
The collapse time (of the AMOC) is estimated between 2037-2064 (10-90% CI) with a mean of 2050 and the probability of an AMOC collapse before the year 2050 is estimated to be
59 ± 17%.
That is a probability of between 42% and 76% for an AMOC collapse before 2050. 2050 is only 26 years from now.
Wow. Mind boggling...
Towards two decades of Atlantic Ocean mass and heat transports at 26.5°
royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsta.2022.0188
Global and European climate impacts of a slowdown of the AMOC in a high resolution GCM
link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-015-2540-2
Climate impacts of a weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a warming climate
www.science.org/doi/pdf/10.1126/sciadv.aaz4876
Persistent freshening of the Arctic Ocean and changes in the North Atlantic salinity caused by Arctic sea ice decline
link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-021-05850-5
RAPID: 26 degrees N: Monitoring the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to understand climate change:
rapid.ac.uk/
Deeper and stronger North Atlantic Gyre
www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-07655-y
Observed fingerprint of a weakening Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation
www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0006-5
Current Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation weakest in last millennium
www.nature.com/articles/s41561-021-00699-z
Google Scholar: AMOC weakening
scholar.google.ca/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C5&q=amoc+weakening&oq=amoc+
scholar.google.ca/scholar?as_ylo=2024&q=amoc+weakening&hl=en&as_sdt=0,5
Impacts of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation weakening on Arctic amplification
www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1073/pnas.2402322121
Perplexity.ai summary: AMOC Weakening:
www.perplexity.ai/search/amoc-weakening-Pn7pPIYmRcCkMyjjHSqaDw
Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos joining the dot on abrupt climate system mayhem
Basically, we have 20-25 years left to enjoy life.
Well before that, this isn't the only existential aspect of our planet’s ability to support our habitat
Your are certainly right for those who turned 60 or so, for the rest of us, who knows?
Humans aren't enjoying life anyways. Everyone is mean, bitter, selfish and greedy.
What about 5 or 10%??
I can’t see why we should expect the lover percentage to be completely irrelevant…. (Mind you, Im a complete idiot) But I think it might come somewhat earlier,,,,,
Social upheaval runs ahead of absolute collapses of ecological systems.
Your optimism is based on tipping of just one of nine planetary boundaries, disregarding feedback of effects cascading through human social/economic systems.
keep rocking (back and forth, in fetal position)
I can’t lie, it’s extremely frustrating hearing how it “might” collapse when the things you are describing are already happening.
The Sahara is turning green, the Amazon is turning to desert.
I live in Louisiana, everything feels different. 2050? We’ll be lucky to make it to 2030.
I just had a flippant thought that USA could move to North Africa. Trouble is that our plants took tens of millions of years to evolve, not a human lifetime, or ten.
Catch a sailer ⛵to Tunisia where it's green 😎
Nothing to worry about. It is changing and changing much faster than these data points are talking about. Look at poor Spain and her fishing industry almost gone, next go will be UK. October 2024 East coast USA destruction and soaked. It may never recover. People are moving. In my country, wet and cold 🥶 every two or three days. People are saying it's just weather. But physical affects on people is very telling. Soon infrastructure is being tested. Keep an eye on the Antarctic storms. Anyway it's not all bad news..... 😅😅
Sir your gut feeling is not how we do science.. for good reasons
@@PlaCerHooD By gut feeling methinks he means logic. In other words, if you keep loading up your septic tank with out periodic emptying, it will eventually overflow. That said, keep on researching. We have all the time in the world.
Dont mock the amock.
Or we'll all be focked
Climate: "U ficked anyways. Got ten options. Luv"
ASI understand it, the AMOC overturns because the salinity increases as the current travels north and ht increases the weight so the water sinks. But the freshwater coming off of Greenland dilutes he salinity so even if that freshwater is nearly ice cold it doesn’t sink because of the deceased salinity.
Yeah it's a physics Anomaly (magik) that hot water, if saltier will sink under colder but fresher water and thus makes an Inversion.
can't recall explanation of how the freshwater surface breaks process but will come back to me 🤤
Look on the bright side, at least NASA is paying homage to Van Gogh.
It’s observations.
God was paying homage to Van Gogh when designing fluid dynamics.
The debate is which of the two, therefore, had more foresight.
Humanity will have to adapt to an extremely different climate in places. There will be a drastic reduction of human population due to the atmospheric rivers changing (think starvation from crop failures, storms, shorter growing seasons in temperate climes etc.) The best we could do is just adapt.
no the BEST thing is to STOP human breeding!!! obviously!
The general answer in evolution is replacement. Not adaptation.
"Must adapt" - who is the authority?
@@gehwissen3975 bester name
Colonial on 240v power here, powerful kettles can be 2000w or more, even bad ones would be at least half that. A 100w kettle would take half an hour to boil a jug of water.
what if it used pressure instead of heat? 😅
My bad. I was off by 10x on kettle power. I know this; I spoke before I thought;)
The collapse of the amoc will make people running amoc
I see wot u did ther!
Thanks, Paul.
I remember a study about this early 2000's by some Danish or Norwegian scientists...the outcome was another global ice age...
Actually, I just stopped after commenting then went and boiled a kettle before coming back with my tea. Indeed, that's a lot of kettles, but a lot more electricity than you think. Mine is 2500-3000W.
I have a 3000 watt guinea pig.
Higher wattage lowers boiling time, wonder if the same amount of energy is used..
Thx Paul
Terrifying prospect. Should be a clarion call for humanity based on the timeframe alone....but I fear based on our inability to stop global warming from human CO2 emissions that our response will hopelessly inadequate. It like all the other ecological crises we are creating will be emergencies in name only.
Is humanity about to go nomadic?
For the mean time collapsed food supply, dwindling fish stocks, water crises all over the world, heat waves, resource wars...
It's pronounced as the River Merzee. As in The Beatles and the Merseybeat. The other one to the south-west, south of The Wirral, is the River Dee that runs through the ancient Roman city of Deva, now Chester. It'll all freeze. I'll be dead, I reckon, before that. Cheers!
25:01 betting cooling in Europe will be hailed as proof that climate warming isnt happening 🤦♀️
I don't get it. We knew about the Greenland Ice sheet melting. It's ridiculous to not include it in our models. @ 17:40
The tragic scenario that is our reality: Once climate change issues become part of the zeitgeist it's probably too late. I learned about this possibility a decade ago in college and it seems as though its' only hit the mainstream recently.
Too right mate. How the hell does the IPCC 'forget' Greenland melting in their models? Either they are unreliable or they are idiots. Or both....
This visualization is amazing and beautiful. Is it something everyone can see/replay? I’d like to share with others
ruclips.net/video/CCmTY0PKGDs/видео.html NASA | Perpetual Ocean
It’s on RUclips. Very beautiful!!
42%...done, stick a fork in it!
"Stick a fork in their ass, turn them over, they're done." - Lou Reed, quoting his painter friend.
It could happen even sooner I’d my guess. They haven’t been transitioning quickly enough.
Lol.
There will be no transition.
They will continue to use oil,.coal and gas.
Our entire world runs on hydrocarbons and Plastic.
They sure want your kids to "tranzzzition"
You know it's true youtube
@@rdallas81 well no my kids are older I doubt there will be any transitions. I do like my solar panels and having electric bills around 15 a month and hey god pays for my gas now in the form of electricity lol. Win win 🥇
This is why I’m drunk with my friends tonight 😂
May as well, good as any right now 😅
I always realize I had a good reason some time after beginning
I’d join you but about to head to an aa meeting 😏
I join with a joint, but let's be honest - we are on Opium Level.
@@gehwissen3975 🤤💯
According to most baby boomers, the collapse will be no problem. When they were young, it was normal to walk through snowstorms to school!!!
Probably..?possibly ..?maybe..? rather give me the lottery combinations.
Paul, where do you live? (Not exactly, of course) Where's the best place to live upon the AMOC collapse? Thank you for your coverage!
@@RonnieRedd Been reading up on this. The areas least dependent on the AMOC for agriculture and weather patterns are: South East Asia, inland areas of South America (Brazil, Argentina), Australia New Zealand, inland Africa and other parts of Asia.
NZ has a 75% chance of the "next big one" happening in the next 50 years, earthquake that is, that will devastate the country. As far as an Amoc collapse, stay in the country you are would be better than going to a foreign one where people are moving as well, in my opinion. I'm in Australia and mostly everybody lives on the coastal areas, to move inland to heat where people can't live now is not a good plan. Considering Bangladesh will be gone Asia will look very different and good luck with the rest, there is nowhere to move to until the time.
Most general, southern hemisphere, probably land climate and maybe preferably Mountain climates.....pick and choose but in general i think the more south is better😅
It all depends on accessibility to food/infrastructure etc..for example if you have a ranch ready to go, is different when you just move and have nothing...
8 Billion meet at **The Best Place**
(Not at all - some will die on that path)
_Best place_ turns out to be f'hell then.
Being a slight pest on terminology. The golfstream is wind driven and those winds are generated by the earths rotation. The AMOC is the salt/heat transport (pressure valve?) ocean current. The two terms are often mixed, but they are driven by a different process.
If AMOC collapses, what timescale are we looking at from "clearly started to collapse not just slow" to "it's stopped"? People refer to water taking a thousand years to cycle. Of course it doesn't have to cycle to stop but it's still a huge system with enormous inertia that isn't going to end overnight ..but could it be weeks or months. It seems clear that it could take less than a decade (especially since it'll already be well into it's fall by the time we are sure of it)
I recall reading (or hearing) somewhere that the paleo evidence is that previous collapses of the AMOC took 100 years to fully happen. I don't know if that's how long it would take under the present circumstances, or even what the starting point would be. Is the starting point the date at which its collapse becomes inevitable? I presume that the "AMOC collapse before 2050" that Paul is talking about is the starting point of collapse, not the date for it reaching minimum flow.
@@robertcartwright4374 Yeah that's no kind of guide sadly -we're changing things almost ridiculously faster than nature did.
I took it to mean negligible flow by that date with the attendant consequences on weather. It's entirely possible that the collapse is *already* locked in: we have no real idea where the tipping point is or what it looks like. We won't know until well after that point (especially since it's a very 'noisy' system).
@@robertcartwright4374 I've read that the AMOC has already slowed 15% in 70 years and needs another only another 15% or sow to completely stop, due the the physics of the system. I've also read that the effects once that happen could be felt within 1 year, I think we might be in trouble.
@@Dennis_Reynolds I don't have a good handle on this but one of Pauls recent posts indicated a tipping point rather than a linear progression towards collapse.
Every paper can set own definition 📜
Shame about the music. I'm autistic so I had to mute the volume while the music was playing while you were trying to talk over it.
🔜
Merzy, Paul, but the Mercy is funny nonetheless as there will be none.
By the way, I've been down a security/surveillance rabbit hole and I hope your new phone isn't the 16...
no hints? what's up with i16 (that won't eventually happen to all phones)?
@@astrocoastalprocessor yeah, it's nothing new except supercharging the surveillance capabilities through native AI. It's not limted to phones either - microsft recall is another jaw dropping example. We're entering a whole new world in many many ways. I just hastened to say too much - I'll be surprised if this comment isn't hidden.
@@abody499 yeah sounds like the 'natural' course of tech. And this will only get squelched because it's offtopic and not selling anything - gotta stay on topic or the algo will squelch the channel 😤🙄🫡🤫
@@abody499 Not yet.
Yeah remember that lobbyist for dupont in the 80s....?
Yup dupont had just patented a new refrigerant.
Enter AlGore
Bogeyman ozone
The hole is still there but all the fridges are running on duponts refrigerant.
Remind you of anything...?
All prepared in advance...?
Co...........fizer
ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/
Shall i still order Christmas presents or not! 😮
I'm sure it's fiiiiine. 😅
Pegged? The numbers 42 and 76 are awfully specific for such a wide spread! Is this information supposed to be actionable? Isn't it enough to know that collapsing environment is the primary global security threat?
Kinda wanna read it myself. Don't enjoy maths but sounds kind of sus +1.6 would collapse it
On and off like a baby boomer yelling at you not to leave lights on 💡 throughout Holocene
Not first
Actually 2min late sorry bud. Don't worry you have about 25 years to keep trying then you're toast
Well before that. You're delusional, BUD, if you think the grid will still be operational by late next decade.
@@TheDoomWizardNot as delusional as someone who edits their comments 😂😂
Toast? I have butter and Jelly@@SzymczykProductions
@@TheDoomWizardI predict with 100% accuracy that the grid will be fully working and even additional solar, wind and nuclear plants will be online.
A U.K. kettle is typically version 2 and 3 Kw…. So a Trillion kettles is 3 x10**15 Watts
Or “Toastie” as we like to say in Blighty
Arχiv? With a chi?
CHI with Arxiv
oooooh ar chi v(e)
wow i was today years old
That's not rock'n'roll is ambient chill out
However speaking of rock'n'roll you can get the right pronunciation of Mersey from the Beatles track "ferry across the Mersey"
It was Gary and the Pacemakers, not the Beatles?
@@charleswood2182fair play, I wasn't alive 😮
@charleswood2182 and I checked out of curiosity ... Beatles never did a cover of it, either.
It does list Paul McCartney as part of the band, tho'... and he & Lennon wrote at least one song for them. George Martin was manager/producer & co-writer for both bands.
@@julieannmyers8714 That makes sense, and a Beatle part of the band even? I guess that shouldn't be surprising, but to me it is.
@@charleswood2182 yeah, I didn't know that their genreof rock in the early days was called the Merseybeat.
Paul your you tube has ruclips.net/video/VWd8ML94EFs/видео.htmlsi=1EN2JbgWYKvRtTlr this one on same subject.
It’s important:)
Hmm, I hope you are right Paul or what will we do if the thighs turn out OK and we will be saying ourselves how many years we spent waiting for Armageddon?
Nobody’s waiting. We’re still living. Some of us prepare, adapt. But keep making music.
Cleaning up the environment isn't a waste of time. Even if all of the climate scientists are wrong we end up with a cleaner environment.
@@jcldcttgeoengineering is opposite of cleaning environment
At least you'll have good thighs.
@@antonyjh1234 found the first guy to to cannibal 👀
Is it Trumps fault...