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Ken Freeman, CFA
США
Добавлен 30 окт 2022
I teach future financial analysts the knowledge, skills and actions necessary to succeed on Wall Street. I am a CFA charterholder, earned my B.S. in Finance from Rutgers Univ. & my M.S. in Financial Management with a Concentration in Investment Analysis from Boston Univ.
I began my career on Wall Street in Investment Banking working in Mergers & Acquisitions for Deutsche Bank in the Media & Telecommunications Sectors. Subsequent to that, I worked at a Hedge Fund as a Junior Portfolio Manager.
I have been a Professor of Finance & Economics at Rutgers Business School since 2012 and I have placed over 1,000 students on Wall Street over the last decade.
I consult to Investment Banks and Financial Services companies where I train their incoming Analysts and Associates after they graduate & before they begin their careers in Finance on Wall Street.
Past clients include: BlackRock, PNC Bank, JP Morgan, Société Générale, The Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) and many others.
I began my career on Wall Street in Investment Banking working in Mergers & Acquisitions for Deutsche Bank in the Media & Telecommunications Sectors. Subsequent to that, I worked at a Hedge Fund as a Junior Portfolio Manager.
I have been a Professor of Finance & Economics at Rutgers Business School since 2012 and I have placed over 1,000 students on Wall Street over the last decade.
I consult to Investment Banks and Financial Services companies where I train their incoming Analysts and Associates after they graduate & before they begin their careers in Finance on Wall Street.
Past clients include: BlackRock, PNC Bank, JP Morgan, Société Générale, The Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) and many others.
SMCI Stock: Hidden Gem or Risky Gamble? - Super Micro Computer Analysis
🚀 ** SMCI Stock Analysis: What’s Next for Super Micro Computer?** 🎢
On March 8, 2024, Super Micro Computer reached an astounding high of $122.90 per share, only to plummet by a staggering (63%)! 😱 What happened? Is this the time to invest in one of the best stocks to buy now, or should you stay away? Let’s break down everything you need to know about SMCI stock!
In this in-depth analysis of Super Micro Computer (SMCI), we’ll cover:
1. 📈 **Business Background**: Discover the innovative business model of Super Micro Computer and how it plays a crucial role in today’s tech landscape.
2. ⚠️ **Company Updates**: Get the latest news on the whistleblower scandal, DoJ investigation, and what it mean...
On March 8, 2024, Super Micro Computer reached an astounding high of $122.90 per share, only to plummet by a staggering (63%)! 😱 What happened? Is this the time to invest in one of the best stocks to buy now, or should you stay away? Let’s break down everything you need to know about SMCI stock!
In this in-depth analysis of Super Micro Computer (SMCI), we’ll cover:
1. 📈 **Business Background**: Discover the innovative business model of Super Micro Computer and how it plays a crucial role in today’s tech landscape.
2. ⚠️ **Company Updates**: Get the latest news on the whistleblower scandal, DoJ investigation, and what it mean...
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Hey Ken! Any predictions about the price movement this upcoming earnings on 24 Oct?
Hello Ken, Can you do a video on ASML?
I feel like micron is “safer” than SMCI.. look at SMCI what happened last weeks.. very negative news and micron had huge earnings and positive outlook :)
Supermicro market share comes from the opportunity to set standards and forcefully achieve (whatever it takes) platform dominance entrenching these new Chinese “politicians” in People’s Republic of China. That means, half a trillion dollars are lost in IP annually. The CCP’s strategy is theft, wage repression, shell companies and subsidies yield extreme contractions in revenue for U.S. firms which in turns less money in public education, research and development, $600 billion is roughly 6 time the value of annual U.S. exports to China so the United States is not recouping its IP losses through sales to Chinese customers Access to cheap “manufacturing”, aka “ forced labor:” (displacement of populations, and the devastation of entire cities and countries, orchestrating mass genocide, un-solved homicides, hiding drug cartels, nations hooked on their drugs “fentanyl "promoting through biotech companies, hospitals, colleges, violent ideologies through big data, microchips, smart cities, electric cars initiating a devastating nation, establishing, totalitarian regime, and causing immense suffering and loss of life) The irony is most Americans have no idea about this. The major costs manifest into the American industry and the pitting of the American workforce against Chinese “forced labors” and rural China workers that are suppressed by currency manipulation. This situation is consigning Americans across city to city and especially California's run by thieves, instead of helping Americans and taking a humble salary are making profits by partnering with companies like BYD.
Great video🎉
@noideatoo Thanks for the compliment, I am glad that you enjoyed it!!! 😃👍🏼
Price already factored in the news. Buy opportunity. Recovery target $90.
@GeneralMerchandiser-r7v SMCI Bull in the House!!! 🐂🐂🐂 The price has dropped (42%) since my last SMCI valuation at the end of July, BUT we need to see the actual year end financials to make a legitimate valuation insight. What we do know is that margins have been compressing as the company is trying to cut prices and make up for the price shortfall on volume. Also, investory and receivables have been going up substantially, but we need financials do make a determination one way or the other 🤷🏼♂️
What is the general consensus among AMZN bulls for WHEN this stock will hit these higher price targets?
@KeepinItCrispy Thanks for the comment!!! General consensus in the short term is looking at 2 things: 1) The election 2) Fed rate cuts. Until we have visibility on both of those, I don’t think we will see anything crazy in the short term. The rate cuts have helped to boost valuation so, more will boost it faster 🚀
Great call on this in August🎉
@fashionman998899 Thank You my Friend!!! At least someone is keeping track 😉😂👍🏼
Hi Ken, I'm a huge fan of your methodologies for analyzing companies. I’m trying to follow your modeling approach, but I would really appreciate it if you could share the PLTR's DCF model you presented in this video. It would help me understand the Excel functions and cell relationships better. I've uploaded a DCF model template from another one of your videos, but it differs from the ones you've shared here. So I am asking for this one. I’m an investor in PLTR since its IPO and have never sold. I strongly believe in the company, though I had some reservations about the CEO in the past. Thank you for considering my request!
@antoniocasale7937 Wow! Thanks for those kind words! Actually a LOT of subs have asked the same thing and I will be rolling out something special where you can go deeper very soon so, please be on the lookout 👀👍🏼
thank you
@r.zimmermann2354 You are quite welcome!!! 😃👍🏼
I bought at 93, can I do average? Or wait?😊
@ArtificialIntelligencee I do not know your financial situation and I cannot give you financial advice, but you have several options…. 1) You could hold and wait for it to come back 2) You could sell and take the loss 3) You could wait to see how much it comes back by year end and sell before year end to take the tax loss and then buy it back 31 days later, assuming you believe in the Company. Right now, it is too difficult to understand without having financials to go off of. We are literally flying blind. I had a value of $71 and a sell rating at the end of July, but now I have no clue since there are no financials. I know this isn’t a clear “answer”, but it does outline all of your options. Good Luck🍀👍🏼
I started buying this stock from 61 till 37. Value is great at these prices for this kind of growth stock
@@kenfreemancfa thank u, i am will do the average because i have some extra money and i do not need it. The only thing is that are there any chances of delisting? As i invested in fişker and loss money
@ArtificialIntelligencee SMCI received a notice of non-compliance from NASDAQ on 9/20/24 giving them 60 days to file their 10-K or provide a plan to regain compliance. Today is 10/16 so, they have 34 days left to file their 10K or submit a plan to NASDAQ. So, yes, there is a chance of delisting.
Excellent! Keep up the good effort.
@kendrms Thanks for the feedback and the encouragement, I appreciate it!!! 😃👍🏼
Great analysis and insight into this company. Thank you for the information.
My pleasure, I’m glad that you enjoyed it!!!😃👍🏼
I like SMCI and used to buy their servers for corporate buildouts. Like many Taiwanese companies, they were a mom-and-pop shop seeing dramatic growth because of AI. SMCI only has about 5000 employees and I believe this is just growing pains.
@winst2000 Hopefully you are right. I never want to see companies fail, I love success stories. I really hope that this is just a bump in the road and not an indication of something bigger and scarier for investors 😊👍🏼
They are a pyramid scheme in cooperation with the Chinese Communist Party
it's going be fiy for moon🎉
@esubalewababe9512 We shall see!!! The accounting is a little scary right now, but they have a lot of demand and growth so, it has the potential to be a moonshot!!! 🚀🌛🚀
yknow whats good besides the analysis? the video skill and the timing. Nice video 👍
@lockercoin3693 Thanks for those kind words, I appreciate it!!! Always trying to get better each time 😃👍🏼 I agree, the editing came out really well 📽️🤩 Thanks again for the feedback!!!
You’d think Jensen Huang would be looking into who’s going to build all that equipment he needs to stick his chips in.
@flipsaug Thanks for the comment!!! It’s so funny that you said this because I was thinking the same thing!!! Nvidia could buy SMCI outright for cash at these levels, but the FTC would probably find some reason to block the deal. I have to believe Huang is working through back channels on this. There is too much exposure for NVDA to ignore 🤩
Too costly to reinvent the wheel. SMCI is iconic to U.S. and it is here to stay.
Nvidia can consider buying up SMCI
Your analysis is amazing and your passion is showing!!! Thank you for doing this!!
@jackiedinh5326 Thank you so much Jackie!!! I appreciate those kind words!!! 🤗
Came back to comment on this video. Invested shortly after watching this video and I’m up 20%. Thank you sir!
@WolfePackFitness Awesome, I’m happy to hear that!!! Another success story, Cha Ching!!! 💰🤑💰
Thank you
@codymercurio910 You’re welcome my Friend, thanks for tuning in!!! 😃👍🏼
great video, deep analysis and more more clarity on all this SMCI financial issue
@tarundubey9437 Thanks for the comment!!! It’s a lot to unpack with SMCI and there is a lot of shady stuff going on that doesn’t make sense. 🤔 The lack of transparency from Management is alarming and it should make every investor hesitant about exposing themselves to this Company until we have more information and clarity. 😃👍🏼
thank you for the insight
@Cifneaaric36184 My pleasure!!! Thank you for tuning in!!! 😃👍🏼
Awesome mindset 👍
@OliveCuriousAboutLife Thank You my Friend!!! 😃👍🏼
Thanks alot! Very helpful. Is there anyway we can get your excel file for this model?
@hesage1995 Awesome! I’m happy to hear this! Yes you can, I’m almost ready to reveal a community that I am creating so that folks like yourself can go deeper and interact with me as well. 🤯 Stay tuned, announcement coming soon!!!🤩
@@kenfreemancfa awesome! Can't wait.
Great vid! Glad I came across your channel. Subbed!
@dr.ptrkjc Awesome, I’m happy to hear that!!! Welcome to the Family!!! 🤗
What do you think about a potential financial collapse in the near future making us go all digital with stuff like cbdcs and stablecoins? I’m starting to have my doubts on the future monetary power of the US dollar with the way the economy has been doing and the misrepresentation of it being pushed by the fed and other major banks.
@karanlal4112 Thanks for the comment!!! This has been “feared” for some time, but as long as the USA is the safe haven for the entire World (which it is, btw) then, you don’t have to worry. To put things into perspective, every week the Fed does a Treasury Auction and every week they have more demand than they can meet. The real question is, where is everyone putting their money if not in the USA??? The answer isn’t crypto. Also, unless / until Crypto is regulated, it will never be fully accepted worldwide and regulating crypto defeats the purpose of having crypto in the first place. Hopefully this clears things up a bit, lmk 😁👍🏼
No debt and 200 million of cash I thought that was a good thing
@eddierosario1537 No debt and 200 million of cash IS a good thing. In fact, it is a great thing!!! BUT, don’t forget about cash burn rate. That cash gets used up very quickly and more money needs to be raised via debt or equity (this dilutes shareholders).
@@kenfreemancfa The thing that worries me is there net income is negative. And you mentioned the company not being profitable till 2028 that’s a long time! And recently the stock doesn’t even move it just trading sideways
@@kenfreemancfaThat’s what worries me as well the cash burn out like you said it will take 3 years if that for the company to be profitable and that’s a long time. I do understand that they spend a lot on research and development but they’re a new company so that would make sense but the stock doesn’t move or anything it literally only trades sideways.
Very informative! Just a suggestion, stop saying “let’s hope into model” every 30 seconds in the video, it’s giving boomer vibes. Love the video tho.
@Dragonwrath0712 Thanks for the comment!!! Boomer vibes, LMFAO 😂 What do you suggest for a transition??? Me oddly staring into the camera and then next frame we are in the model??? It primarily serves as a pattern interrupt / transition, but I’m open to any suggestions you may have 😁👍🏼
Really well presented and concise analysis. Thank you. Please can you assess more value stocks like BABA and CROX? Not many RUclipsrs are covering BABA valuation and the ones that do get high engagement on their videos. Thanks again 🙏🏻
@FC-uc4uw Thanks for those kind words!!! Great suggestions, this is what I need tbh. Mag 7 companies don’t get much traction and then smaller companies that get traction (e.g., RKLB, SOFI and SOUN) don’t tend to make for good modeling / valuation candidates. BABA looks to be a diamond in the rough, though the stock has popped recently, hopefully there is still some juice left. I’m going to take a look 🤓 Feel free to suggest others that do / will perform well on RUclips, thanks!!! 😃👍🏼
@@kenfreemancfa Anytime! Thanks for the feedback. Some stocks I am looking into are Ferrari NV (ticker symbol: RACE) - really solid financials and it's not covered very often on RUclips. My basic DCF shows it being undervalued at current prices. Another stock I am looking into is ULTA. Again, not many videos out there but the videos that are out there get strong engagement. It seems like a more classic value play.
Does the amazon stock will hit 200 by this October end
@yoursgnan It is definitely possible. It was right around $200 in early July, only 3 months ago 📈
@@kenfreemancfa thank you
I am a spicy Kimchi investor(you know? haha) living in South Korea. I totally agree with your 'screaming buy' opinion based on DCF model.
@kurtlee2649 Thanks for the comment!!! You are making me hungry 😂 MSFT is going to benefit massively with AI advances in the years to come and it is at a very reasonable price today relative to its true value. Have a great day 😃👍🏼
Is there a way to account for Amazon's Project Kuiper?
@markflour The $10 billion cost is baked into the Capex number, but there is no revenue estimate built into the model projections because the constellation has not been put into orbit and it’s not operational. So, Project Kuiper earning even $1 would add to this valuation because it is not currently captured. This is sound from a valuation and modeling perspective because we can / should only value / model what we know to be true. Hypotheticals skew valuations massively and make them effectively useless. 🤓👍🏼
Hi Ken, fantastic detailed analysis as usual. I am very bullish on Amazon and despite the heavy CAPEX investment, they seem to be the more responsible than the aother mag 7 ( to me it seems that there is over investment in AI). I am in @ 167, I am waiting for it to dip below 180 to add
@yahyaahmed7347 Thank You My Friend!!!😃 To your point, Amazon’s Capex is a little more thoughtful / relevant to their business model than the rest of the Mag 7. AMZN is focused on Automation & Logistics first and A.I. second. I’m also looking for a pullback below $180 to add some more 🤑👍🏼
There are a few issues with this analysis. 1. I think you’re emphasizing too much about RKLB being profitable; Tesla didn’t have a full profitable year until 2020 and the price was already in the thousands 2. You are not factoring in the major potential of future government and private company contracts. I get the “speculative” aspect of my statement but with space being the next big thing, this is inevitable 3. This is a very well run and frugal company. Management makes it a point to not waste money on anything unnecessary. You won’t find this in the books but if you listen to earnings, employee reviews and other calls, you will see what I mean All in all, this company is doing the things operationally and it’s just their luck that the global space wars are heating up without many other companies to choose from
@KenKLaude Let me address your issues 1 by 1: 1. Go take a look at Tesla’s stock chart. It is relatively flat 2014-2019 and then skyrockets in 2020. Profits matter when it comes to valuation because nobody wants to fund a company with debt nor equity if they think they won’t be repaid. 2. If someone can tell me, within reason, how to quantify this, I would be happy to put it into the valuation. The revenue growth in the model is 65% with the Company increasing revenue by 12.2x in the next 5 years going to $3Bn in 2028 so, some of this progress is baked in. Tesla’s humanoid robots are estimated to be worth $5Tn by Cathie Wood of ARK Invest. Tesla’s current value is $800Bn. If I were to put $5Tn in the valuation, and say that it is worth $1,500 per share, I would lose all credibility, and rightfully so. 3. I agree and this is built into the model. They have reduced operating costs by almost 50% since 2020, but we don’t know what run rate costs will be until they hit run rate revenues which are still growing rapidly. The $5.80 value that I got was based on what the business is currently doing while taking into account their current trajectory. As time goes by, it will be updated. I follow Warren Buffett’s investing rule: Rule #1 - don’t lose money, Rule #2 - don’t forget rule #1. This philosophy results in missing out on the early stages of a Rocket Lab, but also helps avoid the hundreds of companies that go bankrupt and never make it. Hopefully that helps 😁👍🏼
Quite an impressive performance from Amazon. I think you would be insane to bet against this company that has one of if not the most to gain from automation from AI. But I’m still an AI bear in the short term so probably gonna hold off on this one as I already own a sizable position. Definitely a bright future ahead.
@WigglyCoop007 Hey Cooper!!! Amazon is benefiting from the Fed’s rate cut and their A.I. focus is on logistics more than anything so, they are probably the best positioned of the Mag 7 to be able to leverage A.I. quickly and efficiently. Excited to see what AMZN does!!!
great videos
Great content! I would love to see your evaluation of Broadcom and Celsius Holdings Inc.!
@craftyraf Thanks for the comment!!! I have added them to the list!!! 🙌🏼
@@kenfreemancfa That's fantastic, thanks!
Another solid analysis Ken. AMZN was the second stock I ever bought in ‘97 @$25 ($0.10 adjusted) Should have kept those shares, but sold for a small profit. Who knew? Fortunately, Wised up and bought back again 7 yrs ago. While they do cover a lot of industries (e-commerce, entertainment, cloud, advertising) they seem to have the least amount of buzz of the Mag7. Waiting for a breakout. Jassy has been somewhat slow (or at least too quiet) in asserting and executing his vision for the company
@loganlasvegas Thanks Brother!!! I literally shivered when you said “bought in ‘97 at $25”, that’s a definite 100 bagger right there!!! I agree that they don’t have much “buzz” but it makes me think of Peter Lynch…what do you use / consume daily? A: Amazon. Uh, yeah, might wanna look into that 🤣
Great Analysis. Agree on all Points. Excited to see Amazon's future plans with AI. Pretty comfy in raising my position here
@SharkTX77 Thanks for the comment!!! I was pleasantly surprised myself. Margins are expanding and the Fed rate cut has had a meaningful positive impact on the valuation. The $400Bn of planned Capex is going to provide a nice boost moving forward too. I’m also planning on increasing my exposure based on these findings. Have a great day 😃👍🏼
Ken, thank you for the breakdown, I'm fooled by randomness and assuming that the forward momentum and disruptive nature of the software will exponentially increase commercial revenue. The software platform has been and will continue to be instrumental in growing Palantir's popularity. I've consumed the Alex Karp Kool-Aid and think it's the best software. Your boot camp numbers may have been incorrect.
@tommy-73-dash Thanks for the comment!!! I agree that commercial revenue will continue to rise and those are sticky customers with longer term contracts. I personally have not tried the software nor do I know of anyone who has so I cannot say if it is the best or not BUT there is really no comparison out there; it’s best by default 🤓 Which Bootcamp numbers were incorrect? I literally pulled them from the Company 🤔
Microsoft will grow forever and extend into different sectors if they need to do it for more growth.
@useless1 I don’t disagree!!! They are a juggernaut and always seem to grow at a double digit percentage rate. They are at the forefront of innovation and it’s hard to go wrong betting on MSFT 🤑👍🏼
Great vid. Subbed!
@BeeTB1 Awesome, I’m glad you enjoyed it!!! Welcome to the family!!! 🤗
Will you do some updates on Boeing PLEASE
@peterd7232 You are 100% correct, it’s been 6 months and Boeing is due for an update!!! I have put it in the queue!!! 😬👍🏼
Hi Ken, being very honest I’m like David Ortiz, I swing for the fences, just sold my business and retired at 45 today…I really believe in RKLB which is why I have accumulated 135k shares since 2021 w a avg under $5 nothing but blue sky ahead, not a professional investor at all
@FoolsGold11 First off, congratulations!!! 🎉 What business were you in? Being very honest like David Ortiz (obvious Red Sox fan) and he did PEDs too, btw 😂 You put your money where your mouth is which is a measure of respect for sure, but what is it specifically that makes you so positive on RKLB? Is it the leadership, the business model, the mission / vision? Do you have any other large stakes in early stage companies? What about SOFI or SOUN? I’m just trying to understand your process of how you look at / think about investing 🤓👍🏼
Great Analysis Ken! Solid abd straight forward!
@SharkTX77 Thank you my friend!!! Please share and spread the word!!! We need more people like you on this channel!!! 🙌🏼
They need to spin off their fab and dump their debt onto it. Their resources should be focused on designing chips and catching up with the competition. The fab would do better if it can run itself and find its own financing.
@viperx7262 This is actually one of the most sound and logical recommendations that I have seen and I agree 💯 Most don’t recognize that top-line growth is cratering while debt is ballooning all while the fundamental business metrics are deteriorating. Intel needs to make major adjustments or they won’t exist any longer. Unfortunately, most people just think they will magically turnaround overnight YET the “turnaround” has been going on for years with no meaningful results to show for it. 🤷🏼♂️
What's the margins you expect going forward? Do you think the margins can skyrocket due to economies of scale?
@erichong4786 Management has given operating cost expectations of 48-60% of revenues which implies margins moving to about 40-50%. Remember, they just turned EBITDA and net income positive for the first time last year and now they are hitting their stride and beginning to scale. I see no reason why the company couldn’t double its current margins over the next several years. 🚀
I liked your video… lots of great information but please stop adding those sound bites the honking and all the other crap it’s extremely annoying and takes away from your presentation.
@RottenCandy67 Thanks for the comment!!! I feel you 💯 You are like me, you don’t need the bells and whistles, you just want the info. We are always improving so, please take a look at some of my other stock valuation videos and lmk what you think 👊🏼
Thank you for the update video as always! Genuine and incredible content. Wanted to ask for your opinion regarding wallstreet analysts' price targets, which you have shown towards the end of your video, whether these prices provided are useful as a reference
@Warsaw888 Thanks for the comment AND for those kind words!!! I always bring my A game for you 💪🏼 Great question!!! So, Wall Street analysts typically give a range of prices which mimics what I have at the end of the video ($313-339). In our example, I would most likely give a range on my report of $325-330. Now, the “actual” specific target is $325.68 in the model, but on Wall Street, you will never be given the model unless you are a Fund Manager paying $1,000+. Hopefully that helps, but lmk if you have any other questions 😃👍🏼
Love your videos but it would be a huge upside if you could analyse the stocks before they turn big upside. I am not sure if it is possible but could be nice if you are able to achieve that.
@ShreyanshMishra1311 Thank you my friend!!! If I could predict the exact time that stocks were about to make a huge turn upward, I would not be on RUclips, I’d be busy stacking billions in my bank account 🤣 PLTR popped due to S&P inclusion literally after market close on the day I released the video, complete coincidence. I would suggest buying a small position in a stock that you like and then increase it when the stock pulls back. This can be accomplished via limit buy orders at a price of your choosing.