Warren Buffett & Charlie Munger Disagree About the Future of America (2005)
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- Опубликовано: 4 июн 2019
- Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger have somewhat differing views about the future of the United States. From the 2005 Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting.
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“I'm right, and you're smart, and sooner or later you'll see I'm right.”
- Charlie Munger
Charlie is right because he is also smart and knowlegeable about history and how civilizations work.
I believe the exact quote is closer to "Warren, think it over and you'll agree with me because you're smart and I'm right"
@@Furtivo95 he did say it
“See if I’m not right. Have a good day”-Wilford Brimley
5:27 “But I suspect that in very important ways we are at or near the apex of a great civilization.” -Charlie Munger
I think he’s right
@@edodouglass8852 Charlie ofcourse has a good amount of his investments being managed in China. Just so you know where hes coming from
You could say he invested in China because of this belief, not the other way around where he says what he said because he has investments in China. The last year has really shown a huge crack in our great civilization after all.
@@missionpupa reminds me of ray dalio. everyone shilling for china
Hahaha, Great civilization doesn't have any great impact anywhere else outside a small piece of land.
Whenever I think about the current state of the US, I always remember this quote from Charlie.
Yes, but why are we now in decline?
@@JohnSmith-su3ze we’re not
He is right.
@@JohnSmith-su3zestupidity!
Charlie Munger is one of our time's greatest intellects. And what a sense of humor
"We're going to be buying things as long as I live"
"longer than that, Warren"
I admire these guys because they're so down to earth. Sadly a good lesson for alot of others.
The best two teachers in this world.
are u sure?
@@lycan2494 they literally are
This question was perfectly timed, just after 3 year Warren did exactly what he said here.
Here is the article that he wrote right after the crash.
www.nytimes.com/2008/10/17/opinion/17buffett.html?_r=1&scp=2&sq=warren%20buffet&st=cse&oref=slogin
I don't think Charles meant a Financial apex necessary. The financial fall of any empire is preceded by many other factors.
You think about it. America HAS REACHED a pinnacle around 2005. Everything has been a damn rough ride from there. No longer easy to make money LIKE IT WAS in those days, manufacturing all gone, flooded with illegals, and government spending out of control while the cost of living has gone nuts! 2005 WAS the damn peak. For America.
6:00 pay attention to this. I lost out years ago by not getting into things due to fear or being overly cautious.
Warren and Charlie are so good to hear...deep respect for them...they truly speak their mind...
I agree with Charlie more than Buffett. I think the problem is culture, and I don't think an eroding culture is solvable without major changes.
You can see it with our debt. I am not saying debt is even the problem, I think debt is the indicator of a much larger culture issue. We are turning into a nation of instant gratification citizens who value security over liberty. I think these will be terrible things moving forward. We are so used to it that our parents are dying and they dont think twice about living us with $25T in debt. They literally don't care. Most worrying, neither do most people.
It’s turning out that Charlie was right ...
@@mw-ys1qq Theres more conspiracy theories now. Every thing is a conspiracy on RUclips comment section.
@@mw-ys1qq cost of housing, healthcare and other modern living necessities are through the roof and have been accelerating, CPI doesn't track that though, yeah no inflation to see here.
how the fck was Charlie right?
Feralz American cities weren’t burning in 2005; now they are. Savagery is gaining ground and the USA is becoming a third world country both ethnically and culturally.
@Space Alien left
They're so cute.
Couple of teddies really!
Thank you Charley.
You recognize profits in bear markets when you buy, and realize profits in bull markets.
I never tire listening to such wisdom.
5:02
"Your children are going to live better than you live and your grandchildren are going to live better than your children live, and we do not focus on macro factors. Charlie?"
"grhmmm..."
5:30 , Still gives me chills
Munger is greater than buffet,munger being a conservative has a more accurate understanding of human nature.
What amkes you assume hes conservative he supports higher taxes on the rich and hold some liberal beliefs if anything hes a center of the road guy. Warren leans left but evem he agrees with some conservitbe ideas chief amoung them he said bush hamdled the crash well.
@@mw-ys1qq He is a conservative, a member of the Republican Party.
@@mw-ys1qq I read his biography, hes a staunch republican.
I bet Warren is secretly a conservative as well. His father was a Republican politician and he has admitted to voting Republican in the past
Munger- we are at or near the apex of a great civilization. 5:50 Buffet- lets give it 20 years and see who’s right………look at our society today 👀…… without question Munger was right
why? lol
@@ededd3175 you must be very young if you’re asking that question
Munger is more philosophical and knowledgeable about history that Warren
Alike and different at the same time.
I like them both. They’re both nice guys I enjoy listening express their opinions.
I do think that at some point in my life time(currently 42), the United States will have to deal with its debt issue and may even threaten the dollar reserve status and things are gonna look bleak. But once we dealt with that, I do believe we will come out even stronger. So in the short to mid term, I agree with munger, in the long run I’m with warren.
The idea of the dollar as a 'reserve' are kind of misplaced. The dollar is merely the currency that the value of things are "based" upon. The world could use the Japanese Yen, South African Rand or Philippine Peso for this as well and nothing would change.
That said, the USA's debt is also something most people dont quite understand, imho. For example the country of Switzerland is celebrating their 730th anniversary this year and the USA is only 246. In essence, if the world doesnt descend into nuclear chaos, this gives the USA some 470+ years to pay down the debt. Given most people use 30-year mortgages to buy a house, this time frame to pay off the debts seems reasonable, but only if the people elect representatives to Congress that want to pay off the debts rather than handing their billionaire cronies more tax breaks.
@@id10t98 Congress gets rich by creating debt, so why would they ever pay it down?
@@id10t98 meanwhile its debt has been CONSTANTLY increasing since the LATE 60s. Be honest. Everyone knows that the debt is ONLY EVER going to increase. They're NEVER going to just turn around and STOP coming up with BS government projects that their SONS AND DAUGHTERS get the tenders for. They've spent HUGE money working out the average length of a ducks penis, even A FEW HUNDRED MILLION on advertising promoting Asian fruit TO ASIANS with no ability to explain WHY they did that. The debt will increase with NO THOUGHT let alone intention of paying the money back, and it will continue to be squandering on pointless crap.
3 years later we experienced one of the biggest financial crashes ever and then 12 years later we got hit with a global economic halt, the effects of which are beginning to show themselves. Fair play Charlie.
If you really look at the bigger picture or on a longer time horizon, these shocks are nothing but a mechanism to make civilizations more resilient... Suggest you to read more about Chinese history then you start to see a bigger picture
2008 was a walk in the park compared to 1929 and this one is yet to be seen.
And S&P is still at 4,200 points. Any arguments left?
And sp500 is SOARING. Hope u didnt get out but held on as we all did to our index funds and we all came out MUCH wealthier.
Market will go up and down and slowly get higher
@@martine83425300points now
So... Charlie was right
I love their attitudes
6:46 is hilarious hahah
Ye, Charlie is a fucking legend
2000 was the apex
The Western Romans said that about 200.
@@wholeNwon they were correct lol.
2005 meeting. And, three to four years later...
And the market is how many times higher now? Buffet is right in being a long term Bull
he is smart doctor. im pretty sure that he is rich
Almost 20 years out, any thoughts on where we are?
@@mw-ys1qq Yeah, but 50% of Americans makes $30,000 or less.
@@mw-ys1qq dude, $30,000 is low. That's about $14.50 an hour...there's hardly enough to save
near the apex still
Well, after Trump and political divisions and non stop conspiracy, it's fair to say the USA is culturally bankrupt. Financially, it keeps chugging along.
Buffet’s facial reaction at 5:35 is hillarious
Mr. Munger was right.
I think Charlie the very important ways he mentioned don't include ALL of the very important ways
The market did, in fact, get cheaper a couple years later.
Contrary to how it may appear on the surface, I think buffet is the sidekick here.
He's right - 2008 happened.
- Evaluate companies based on ethical strength as well as financial performance (00:22)
- Recognize more investment opportunities in a bear market (1:51)
- Focus on value when purchasing stocks or bonds (3:21)
- Ignore macro forecasts in investment strategy (3:29)
- Maintain long-term optimism for the American economy (4:01)
- Seize good business investment opportunities regardless of macroeconomic concerns (6:20)
5:58. 2005 munger consider the nuclear threat as it is today on March 8, 2022.
The balcony muppets never disappoint.
They are all there to give thanks.
"I'm gonna be buying groceries as long as I live... Charlie is just waiting to take over after." In hindsight, I'm starting to doubt this was a joke, Charlie is 100 in half a year and still going strong.
I love the sound of popping coke cans during a Berkshire meeting 😌
Not yet Warren!!!...... 😂
Is a Berkshire shareholder capable of asking a non 12 minute compound question? It seems, too, a bunch are self aggrandizing in nature.
Hey, give that fellow a break he's a physician after all!
During the Civil War, it probably seemed like America was over, yet we were just getting started. You can’t take for granted that things will be good, but you also shouldn’t be fatalistic and assume things will be bad. You get to decide if you will work hard for a great civilization, just like your predecessors did!
Back then the two oceans actually meant something. Not so today with ICBMs
Damnnnn munger be on.
Munger is correct. He is reasoning from the current facts, while Buffett is talking about what used to be in this country. This country has passed the breaking point, and it's Humpty Dumpty from here onward.
How many times the demise of our country has been predicted! Eventually the prediction will probably come to pass. Change is the law of life.
As of today, it looks as if Charlie was correct.
Well, looks like Charlie was right.
Its actually not hard to see what Charlie sees
Relative educational competitiveness hits a peak 30-40 years before the peak of the empire. I'd say for America that was the glorification of engineering and sciences up until Reagan.
1950-1980
Which means you'd expect the relative peak of the American Empire to be 2005-2010s
And its also irreversible.
The education system has never been worse relative to the OECD and once the 2010 generation is the workhorse of the economy in 2040-2050 competing against Chinese, Indians and Nigerians who went to school in 2010s, the collapse is inevitable.
That was a 2 minute long question.
Really stupid, wasn't it?
Rip legend
charlie rocks..............
Charlie did not specify what he meant by Civilization.
uh, he means the Civilization...
The opposite of detroit.
@@abhimanyukarnawat7441 I think you mean the factory system. It is a refinement of the making of things. Civilization to me is not produced in factories, though the making of things is the outcome of civilization. What is that civilization that produced the factory system and is it true that it has reached its apex? Perhaps a refinement of that civilization is in the offing rather than its demise. By refinement, I mean that we become better able to manage our knowledge of Good and Evil which is a key objective of modern civilization. American civilization is only a prototype of a worldwide culture and was never regarded as a final point at least by some observers. To me, it seems that the ambitions of America and the Global culture have been discredited. The system we are witnessing being introduced is not refinement it is the reaction to the failure of those ambitions. Is there more? Barring the destruction of the earth by a cosmic event, absolutely refinement will continue. Maybe this is what Charlie was trying to articulate.
@@malcolmwatt4866 surely we need to evolve as human beings, to grow we need to become kinder more compassionate
@@malcolmwatt4866 no I mean the opposite of Detroit.
banks are having solvency problems. buffet will never scare the public with this information
Hahahahahah
More likely he doesn't want to scare Berkshires clients
@@youngsamuel1 yea and if he sadi the top was in everyone would freak lol
What the hell is solvency problem ??
CM is a real OG
They are probably both right. We'll be more like a third world country but there will still be opportunities to make money if you are inclined that way.
That fellow from Magellan was right! I hope Charlie is wrong
It appears Charlie was correct....we were at an apex....boomers left the millenials far worse off....
Chris Sudlow still not far enough into the future to say we reach an apex then, we may still bounce back. Stay positive😂
@@CM-so1cf I am extremely positive....I became independently wealthy at the age of 31 through investing and hustling...I guess apex is a fairy strong word...I would say that a lot of easy money made in the last 50 years has been squandered by previous generations...with a worldwide economy and tremendous competition things are certainly not easier
You are both extremely positive and completely insufferable.
@@chrissudlow8638 social apex for the time, technologically we continue to improve obviously and the 2020s are looking fantastic in that regard.
Not turn only marginally worae and to blame boomers.isnt accurate. Millineals are just the first generation that wont see large scale econmic growth. By and large millineals are hurting them selves by not understanding money. College amd housing has gone up in price yet milineials hurt them selves with money manegement.
Bloody hell! Is everyone required to force a narrative before they ask a question? So dull!
5:18 Munger was right. America was at or near the apex in the 2000's.
What caused our decline?
Soviet cultural warfare against the West in the 1960s was wildly successful and its effects have only increased with time. They funded a whole raft of crazy dissident movements in the US at that time and because of that, those deliberately destructive ideas came to dominate American thinking.
@@Xezlec I totally agree with you, but how did all this happen? ...and why?
Charlie was right apparently.
It is curious that an MD would consider Berkshire to be an "ethical" company: Coca Cola has contributed to the twin epidemics of obesity and diabetes that every doctor sees in their practices.
Coke has various zero calorie versions if you want to stay away from sugar.
@Pham Nuwen yup I lost 80lbs this year and drank Coke Zero religiously
No one is forcing anyone to buy Coke though. It’s a choice.
The person who was taking about more from an investing perspective rather than the products they sell themselves.
Ole Buddy Boy Buffets a Fed for sure.
The longest question ever? He spent most of his time waffling. Charlie looked bored and was clearly hoping he would just get to the question.
or next time, just wait to snort your coke to AFTER the video is done
Buffett's right. Don't bet against America.
in the past 20 years USA evolved from 10T to 20T. Meanwhile China evolved from $1T to $14T.
USA is great, one of the awesomes countries in the world. But we all have to at least recognize the big things chinese are doing in all areas (financial, technology, politics etc)
“I worry about terrorists, but I keep fing over Americans with the craps like Coke”….Warren Buffet
Charlie is turning out to be correct. Is there a single reason why or multiple reasons?
I always thought Charlie is smarter than Warren.
It's not a contest.
I think Warren is missing Christopher Hitchens point about how lucky the US has been. The majority of Indians/natives who died during European settlement of the Americas died from the introduction of European plagues. North America was empty, and in the Mississippi basin has the single largest, most fertile interconnected navigable river system/arable plain in the world, attracting of ambitious migrations, ocean moats on both sides, tundra to the North, deserts to the South. The reason Americans seem so annoying and spoilt compared to people in the rest of the world is because culturally you have had it so damn easy. You've had 1 civil war, never been seriously threatened by a foreign power, you've never had a serious national disaster that threatened the whole country. Europe and Japan had to rebuild after WWII, the Arab spring was started because of draughts, Egypt Sudan and Ethiopia could go to water over damming the Nile. You've had it easier and luckier than any civilisation, a 250 year run of stability to build up. You memorialise 9/11 and Pearl Harbour as if they are the worst things to happen ever, yet they represent a negligible fraction of the deaths in both of the conflicts they were part of.
Search American exceptionalism.
'merica
🇺🇸
Yes you are spot on, but ICBMs and satellites will soon render the two oceans useless
Where did Hitchens discuss that?
He is "missing" that? In what way? That all sounds like it supports his point.
Charlie is wiser.
Warren is richer!
@@1linkbelt
Warren is richer cause he started earlier not cause he’s wiser. I also agree with the commenter that the Charlie is wiser.
Charlie was right.
Warren Buffet to 2005 Boomers: "You're children are going to live better than you."
2023 Millennials: "Nope."
Charlie is correct. We are close to our apex. Remember Rome?
Getting further from our apex now.
Fundamentally, Buffett is wrong here when he says "your children are going to live better than you did". This is no longer a given. In fact, it probably wasn't even a given 15 years ago, it was just not as evident as it's become now.
We get caught up in the hysteria. Lives are getting better
It was never really a "given". But the overall tendency has been undeniable.
A perfect bisness couple
What buffett did not say is that money-printing machine in the Fed's basement. Charlie is right because he knows printing fiat 💵 like there's no tomorrow, is not sustainable.
Actually warren did talk about government over printing. It’s one of the two things he actually thought it about, besides nuclear weapons
Hog market.
=)
He[r]o market.
Charlie predicting Trump. Lol
Let’s go Brandon! ‘Merica 🇺🇸
1:59 to skip past the nerd
Some people just love to hear themselves blabber on lol.
Munger Buffett yin yang ...
Didt you know my name .?
and i working with you rigth?
or i talking alone.
A lot of cash I gonna be ni?
Corrupt Software...Capatilizing On Insurance...Fraud
Greed & Crimes
Buffett was way off haha Munger nailed it
Nah==give it more time
How? The American economy has boomed in the past 20 years.
@@horror3889 yeah and American debt has boomed also
@horror You are delusional if you think we've boomed. Alot of it is just artificial. CPI doesn't account for assets like stocks, and that's where the real inflation is.
Lmao, what?
Grey's Anatomy.
:[
If i had 82 billion or whatever it might be in the future for Warren Buffett mostly invested in the America economy i would also be talking exceptionally well about Americas future and telling unintelligent people to invest all their money in the SP 500. I don’t see very rich people investing in indexes. Charlie is always mostly right and his wealth is way less that Buffett. Just imagine Jacob Rothschild putting all his money in the Vanguard Sp 500, he will have to be nuts.
Only The Best 10 Minute Loops money nowadays is basically digital. You really need to understand the type of asset you buy. Now when i look at the little people putting their little savings I don’t look at them individually but as i big group that is putting hundreds of billions in the market place. Do you see Mark Cuban, Bill Gates, etc buying the S&P 500? Middle class and rich people have different investments vehicles and index funds are not for wealthy people they are there mostly for the general public.
@@cristians1313 Bill made his money from microsoft and cuban made his from businesses he owned, they didnt make billions from the stock market. S&p 500... lets see 1 billion × 0.07 = 70 million. 70 million from 1 year without working...
Only The Best 10 Minute Loops I understand what you said and that’s what i said right from the beginning ,you just had to think it through and analyze it a bit.
Bob Ross those guys are just to smart to put their money in the sp 500 even if they get 7% but it could be a complicated matter.
cristian s rich people don’t invest in indexes because they know what they’re doing and can get very specific in investments due to expertise in specific areas. An average person could invest a set amount every month their entire life in an index and still retire a millionaire with no research, expertise or knowledge. I don’t think this is a very well thought out comment.
all the rioting and the corrupt media... think charlie might be right :(
we live now on the planet of the apes
Munger was correct.
You know what, screw these guys. All they want is for you to make money. So they can take it.
What?????
I don't like warran Buffett because the rison is they support cocalala.
Warren Buffett makes the great point that America because of the higher IQ and co-operation of it's immigrants would always do better but that only applies if the government doesn't start WW3. And given that WW3 has already been planned then as we get to the zero hour watch for alliances forming on the West/East lines. Another important factor is that fully autonomous artificial intelligent drones could be a curse if they detect friendly fire and start attacking their own side thinking it's a renegade unit. You have to think outside the box and look at what can go wrong. Murphy's Law. Hahaha.
arnold, you need to take your meds
@@yerboi5281 You really need to raise your Kundalini energy if you cannot see WW3 coming. It isn't you fault you cannot see evil. Search for warning fast kundalini activation. Bless you and yours.
Arnold Dalby kundalini, WW3 and AI drones all worked in to one prediction- bravo! No lizard kings?
I guess Charlie was right
Buffett is 80 times richer so what ever lol
Not a fan of Charlie. Part of me thinks he wants everything to go to hell.
17 yeara later Buffet, as predicted was right. Never bet against a monopoly. America is a money maker. Munger was so wrong.
Charlie was right...