Two Years Later: Why Ukraine Is Struggling and NATO Should Be Worried
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- Опубликовано: 3 июн 2024
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On February 17, Russian troops captured Avdiivka, a small city along the eastern frontline. What accounts for Ukraine's ongoing struggles? Although an artillery shortage receives most of the attention, it is only half of the story. This video rewinds to the start of the war to explain why Ukraine initially had success, what changed after the first year of fighting, and what NATO is worried about as the war enters its third year.
0:00 The Invasion, Two Years Later
1:43 How Russia Captured Avdiivka
3:10 The Post-Avdiivka Consequences
6:06 Why Russia Initially Struggled
9:28 Russia's Resurgence
14:38 NATO's Concern about a Broader War
18:44 There's Gerasimov
The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.
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i m wondering if you use the same voice when going to Dunkin Donuts or the grocery store
Lmao
Sprinkles on Donuts
“There is a lack of caffeine in my iced coffee.”
I need more doughnut "material"
ha
Avdiivka is a salient not a pocket. A pocket is isolated completely/surrounded on all sides. Salients are like pimples or bulges. They still have a connection to friendly territory but are extended deep into otherwise enemy held areas like a long stick. Salients are surrounded on three sides but their rear is still intact. I see so many people get this wrong in every video I watched about Avdiivka.
wasn’t it a cauldron?
*was. It’s Russian now.
4:26 Outin don't want to kill all his brother uks
@@carlosandleon salient and pocket are the terms commonly used by historians and the military within the English language. Naturally in other languages, literal translations of their terminology could be completely different
You're right.
Well, you can think of the security concerns of the Baltics and Poland as “a legacy of the Soviet era,” but I’m sure someone as savvy as you knows it goes back WAAAAAY longer than that, William 😉
I already said in 2022: A tactic that isn't based not on what you can, instead on what your enemy can't is pretty stupid. Nobody can tell me someone in Kiev thought its a good idea to fight a war that will go on for years with the tactic: "our enemy makes mistake's and is stupid" WTF your enemy can learn... ever thought about that?
The most important problem is the West’s total misunderstanding of what is happening inside Russia itself, how it functions.
They are introducing hundreds of sanctions that primarily hit the middle class - not thinking that the middle class stratum in Russia is quite small and generally does not support the current course of the authorities. As a result, a significant part of those who were initially against the war now dislike not only Putin but also the West. What’s even worse is that those who are trying to move from Russia to the West (mostly young people with higher education) encounter many obstacles from the West. This is understandable; no one needs an excess of refugees, but many people leaving Russia would be a stronger blow to Putin than any military supplies for Ukraine and would be cheaper for the budgets of Western countries. Sanctions could not be introduced at all - it would be enough to simply stop buying gas and oil. In any form. When purchasing from third countries, demand a full guarantee that it is not from Russia. This doesn't happen. But I can’t send a Christmas present to my friends in Germany because someone in their government thinks that in this way I support Putin.
Now Russia mobilized more people than in 2022, and mobilized his war industry, so let's not underestimate it
00:35 Damn I didn't know Russia had Adiivka surrounded for the last 10 years lol
I'm glad you've been showcasing this as you have been for the last couple years, it really is so informative. I've seen so many radical opinions from both sides, so much so I haven't known the recent events from an unbiased perspective. I know you stand for Ukraine's side, and I do too, but ultimately denying the truth of the situation at the front is not benefitting anyone but Russia. Downplaying, denial, and suppression of information is a poison that only kills those who use such tactics. It's why the USSR fell, it's why most entities fall. The lies only stack up, so please, keep telling the truth, William Spaniel. Your work is more important than many give credit to.
NATO equipped and trained Ukraine for combined arms manuever warfare, without the combined arms part.
They never stood a proper chance against entrenched Russian lines and superiority in artillery.
I just finished "How Ukraine Survived". While in the book there was nothing super revolutionary, it's a very nice summary of events for someone who's a casual observer but wants to stay in the loop nonetheless. For this reason I decided to also order the other book. It's really nice to see someone who's knowledgeable on the matter and is willing to share their insight in a manner that is simple to understand for the average person. Have you considered a translation of the books? The war is still a hot topic in Eastern Europe, while many people don't have access to English media because of language barrier
English is not hard to learn.
Anyone with an ounce of strategic or tactical knowledge on warfare would have known we needed to give Ukraine as much support as possible DURING the successful offensive in 2022. Momentum counts. If you can move quickly enough to disrupt your opponent when they are retreating and re-establishing a defensive posture, they'll be forced to either try and fight in an unprepared and compromised footing, or they'll be forced to retreat even faster and further before they can coalesce into a functional line of defense. Politics caused this war to drag on which is just sad.
We also have to come up with alternative means to get through 20 km deep minefields. Perhaps a tunneling operation would do, like in the 1st world war.
Ukraine has never had any chance to upset Russia. Russia has never been defeated !
@@mathieumeulen4241 Except for all those times it has, here's a list: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_involving_Russia
@@mathieumeulen4241 Doubt xD 1905: Japan loss, 1917: WW1 loss, 1937: won a border skrimish against Japan, 1940: pretty much lost a war to Finland, 1945: WW2 win (although with significant lend-lease and also a bunch of countries was in the USSR too), 1989: Afghanistan loss, first Chechen war lost. There were way more losses in Russia'ss and the USSR's history in the past century than wins.
@@olivernagy1805 thne West always report lies about Russia misleading their leaders in the process. Hittler was misled that Russia is weak it had lost to Finland which was false because its Finland which lost teritory to Russia even the Japanese lost Sakhalin but we are told they won. Napoleon was misled too and got himself crushed. Never fight Russia thats my advice, You will never win.
It take a while for democracies to get up to speed with war - WW2 is a classic example. Once they do totalitarian states just can't keep up. Living in Europe it is instructive to see how attitudes are changing and how in particular Germany is. With a fraction of it's industrial capacity the can outproduce Russia. And they have a recession and a failing industrial base if they want some further reasons to invest in production. Meanwhile Poland is building what will be the most powerful military in Europe - and the new government shows no sighs of changing that.
Germany annd France has been abselute embarrassments in this situation. I wouldnt trust them with a proper response if Italy was invaded tomorrow. But as you say, good that democracies like Poland can step in and do whats right.
NATO needs the United States to get on board. Republicans are holding aid hostage - they were holding it hostage for border concessions before, and now are delaying because they think Trump can win in November.
It also takes russia a long while yo get going in wars. In both world wars Russia and the soviet union both failed miserably at the beginning but got better as the war dragged on. A little better in ww1 and much much much better in ww2.
@@TheFireGiverit’s because they specialize in attrition warfare it’s just a different approach than what the west uses
The GOP and Putin already have a deal for the 2024 elections. The GOP gets Putin's election interference help just like in 2016. The GOP with Putin's help will create separatist movements in the USA and allow Trump to establish a hereditary dictatorship in the USA. In return for Putin's help, the GOP will abandon NATO and allow Russia to recreate the Iron Curtain.
If an Ally says they’ll commit, and then change their mind, they are a traitor, not an Ally.
I never heard of a country winning a war while losing territory and begging for weapons/funding.
The mighty shovel of Bakhmut will keep striking
@@chrisviking7807you're sleeping on the shovels....
Hahaha, just like the ukrianains did..
See where it got them
And the washing machine chips 😅
As always a decent expertise by William Spaniel. The Russians learned their lessons, the western help got complacent - it’s really that simple as that! Great job again William!
EU needs to invest in artillery shell factories and double the production of missiles like storm shadow/scalp. Instead of paying 2024 prices it's easier to agree on 10-15 year agreements with the companies and get major discount as ammo factories will make significant profit on the latter years of the agreement.
I don't understand how it is shocking news that Russia is winning the war. Who, with common sense, would believe that Ukraine would defeat Russia? The only terrible possibility for Russia is to confront NATO directly in a full blown war that would lead to nuclear warfare and possibly the end of the world. In other words, Russia losing is not part of any realistic possibilities. By tha way, I wish for peace. All these wars even in Gaza are terrible for the whole world.
Your students are lucky to have you as their professor. I am jealous of them..
What is he a professor of? Robotic voices? lol
@@SportsBettingFactsAre you serious?
@@lifeinanutshell7147 Just a joke. That voice is extremely bad
@@SportsBettingFactssame could be said about your comments
@@SportsBettingFactsyour right 😂, it does. I like the guy and his channel and I know he is a American citizen, but I would love to know where that accent is from.
il y a un problème de timing entre les alliés EU et les USA , les munitions ne sont pas là , les missiles longues portée non plus et pareil pour les avions qui arriveront pas avant juin alors il va falloir tempérer et c'est bien dommage que chaque partie ait traîner des pieds durant ces deux ans , pour les armes qui sont arrivés trop tard , pour la puissance qui n'est pas au rendez-vous car les alliés refusent que leurs missiles soient utilisés sur le territoire russe alors que les russes le font sur l'Ukraine sans retenue depuis plus de 2 ans , pour la mobilisation Ukrainienne qui n'a pas eu lieu et une fois de plus il y aura du retard car si il y mobilisation il faudra avant les former et cela prend aussi plusieurs mois , les obus de 155 qui ne sont toujours pas en Ukraine , posons la question : va t'on fournir des avions sans donner des missiles et des bombes ????
This should become an inflection point. Where the west and its populations realise that complacency will lose this war. I want to see the loss of Adiyvka to be in the media, on the front page. I want the lack of western support to be emphasized as the primary culprit of this loss. I want the US to see Russia proclaiming that Alaska is Russian and renew its support fto Ukraine just as a way to give putin the bird.
I want all of this to happen, but the question is... Will it?
You refer to Russia's 'recent string of successes' - what else, aside from the capture of Avdiivka, does this string of successes comprise of?
I'm not at all wishing to minimise the precarious situation for Ukraine or the threat that Russia poses. But I don't think that it taking them all Winter to capture Avdiivka at considerable cost constitutes a 'string' of successes.
Not getting the stuff, that was promised dint help either.
And, starlink cut off a few days before the counter offensive neither.
And, than being pressured for result's.
Yes, you are right...
But this shit happens, when politics wage the war and not the generals.
Its the newest doom and gloom about the Ukranian war. Remember from the start with the impeding fall of Kyiv, the 40km column, WW3, escalation, dirty bombs, Zaporizhia power plant explosion and so on...
Avdiivka is the latest doom and gloom and youtubers are quick to put titles like these for the clicks. Same as media outlets. I don't even bother to watch, I already know most what they will say.
@@marcelbruin9151 War is a fairly political matter.
It's just as much about military as it is about politics.
@marcelbruin9151 when will Musk see the court about his shady dealings during this war ?
Bakhmut, halting Ukraine’s 2023 offensive, creating political lockdown in the West, increased air strikes in Western Ukraine, and Avdiivka. Obviously, this is not the end of the game for Ukraine, and other recent videos have covered some of the bright spots that Ukraine had had in recent months-in particular, on the Black Sea and the drone strikes on Russian infrastructure.
The main point is that Russia has the initiative and quashed Ukraine’s most recent attempt to take it and make progress.
Agree on why Ukraine didn't build proper defense lines.After you changed the profile image Ukraine begin to lose ground so please put again the image of Ukraine on the profile.
Ukraine has been building fortifications in Avdeevka for almost 10 years. They are simply not able to withstand several hundred 500 kg aerial bombs.
They gave the order to withdraw with the Russians 800 meters from the last road out. How could the Ukraines stop that from being a killing field?
16:40 who is this General Feel?
You will be happy to know that I saluted General Feel as I was narrating that line.
1. Avdiivka is crucial as together with Volidar it allows UAF aritillary to control railway to the West. Right now, RFAF struggles to supplies west/south group through the Crimea...
2. If "annalists" would took time to read Russian/USSR military doctrine, it will be less of surprise - Russian military is fundamentally mobilization force - based on 3 mobilization waves, RFAF wasted first "well trained" wave out of stupidity, than wasted second wave "by design" to hold UAF advance while allowing mobilize/prepare 3rd wave that now is in full force ready to crush opponent.
If Russia wins this war - aka keep most of claimed territory, Putin will force to continue his conquest... The weak post war economy at home will force him to seek another war to rally public behind his regime. That was the big reason behind war in 2022. FYI , Stalin kept 5M army (yep the 3rd mobilization wave) for 2 years after the end WWII, until he accept the fact, that USSR cannot counter US nukes. Putin may find himself in the same situation - keep fighting or get stuck with the bad economy at home.
The problem is American public meekly accepting enormous price paid for Afghanistan but all of a sudden conscious about any penny if it's help for Ukraine. It will be so much more expensive for the entire NATO to fight...
Pissing away a fortune on Afghanistan doesn't justify pissing away yet another fortune for the sake of a country that never respected us to begin with.
Thank you for your sober and in-depth analisis; and I really appriciate the fact that you are one of the few western comentators who learnt to pronounce Zaporizhia.) Good job!)
5 days later, well. They did not stopped at Avdivka, did they? So yes, Ukraine is that a lot of trouble. They are a spent force.
I really appreciate that your only sponsors are the books you literally wrote, and not Scottish nanoplots or imaginary pieces of art.
The west's repeated laziness is what keeps screwing us over. We need to start reflecting on how we value our temporary comfort over the stability of western values that have allowed us to have this comfort and peace.
I have been meaning to watch "Bad Ukraine News" for a while - this is the first video title and picture that seemed like it would be worth to click on.
Watch "history legends" too
How do you have time for your job + youtube
Lines on schedules.
I have wondered the same thing about Dr. Andrew Huberman. Supposedly a professor of neuroscience at Stanford, but he more like a full-time RUclipsr. His videos are ubiquitous.
It helps that I almost exclusively do videos on topics connected to my research interests, so it double counts to some degree. For example, an academic version of the “Why Russia Miscalculated video got accepted at a peer-reviewed journal earlier this week.
Are you an economics major/PhD?@@Gametheory101
@@Gametheory101Thank you for doing a non academic version on youtube. Your channel really helps with grasping what is going on.
Yep. that is the influential organisation CYAN at 7:28.
Helping people remember one particular colour but blocking the letter Y. helpful...
Good narration 👍🏽.i have subscribed
Always good videos, thank you and keep it up.
You are talking about military budget and its important for sure, but main vulnerability of Baltic countries is lack of manpower. Estonia has 1.3 million population. If 5% will fight it means only 60k army. Russian invasion troops in 2022 were 150k and it probably outnumbers what all Baltics will ready to provide.
Their only hope is direct NATO involvement
News from Hungary: Yes, Sweden gonna get approved next week. We got what we wanted :P
Many idiots underestimated Russia. There is no way Ukraine gonna win this.
Really liked your presentation, and your sense of humor and overall even-handedness.
Excellent work here, thanks.
Thanks for reporting about Ukraine (Y) Greetings from The Netherlands
Love how informative the videos are 🙌
I think many people underestimate the logistics limitations Russia has. Many of their past failures where because they couldn't cover up their weakness with mass. If you are corrupt and only half of your assets arrive the front line it doesn't mayer if you can just sent double the stuff. Whenever the logistics are stretched out Russia losses, when they are close to a big functional railway they can make slow but sturdy (and costly) progress.
👏🏼👏🏼Audible version👏🏼👏🏼read by the author himself 👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼for two interesting books on Ukraine👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼Both are nice reading for t his coming Summer !!!! 😻😻😻😻Many thanks Spaniel ! 18:34
Thank you always a pleasure
I think what most people miss, and what military leaders around the world has gotten scared is the following:
Most militaries (US or EU), don't have real experience. Sure they have fought against the Taliban or ISIS with their rusty AKs or RPGs with old Nokias as communication device, but not against a real military with logistic support, Satellites, Radio Jammers, Drones, UAV, Fighter jets, helicopters, support staff, strategy planners, comms engineers, cyber warfare teams s etc etc. Currently the only country that has that experience is Russia (and Ukraine).
Russia is currently the only country that has experience in modern warfare, has learned from their mistakes, has soldiers with experience and knows how to fully turn their industries into a war industry with people that now know how to build a drone or setup a artillery factory. Russia is also the only country that has learned what happens in modern warfare, if both parties have air superiority with anti-air material it means that you have to scale back to traditional warfare with boots on the ground. And the Russian soldiers are now the only ones that have real experience with such fights. Sure you can train on this with simulation drills, but that will never be the same as actual experiencing real artillery exploding left and right of you while you are trying to outflank the enemy.
This is the reason why Nato and other EU leaders are suggesting or thinking about returning the mandatory draft or a expansion of the volunteer corps. Because they know that Russia is currently the only military that has fought against a 'modern' army. It is the only country with experience and is the only country that has the know-how to scale the industries supporting it, and that has gotten them worried.
What "modern" military has Russia fought? Afghanistan in the 80s? Parts of Syria nowadays? Chechyna? Eastern Ukraine? They can't even beat a third world country like Ukraine with 10% of GDP and 25% of Russia's population with just 7% of mostly old western military equipment and no Navy. While the US beat Iraq 4th largest Russian style military in 2 weeks. NATO spends around 1.26 trillion on defense every year while giving Ukraine 70 billion year for their defense. More is spent to help the Ukraine's civilians. If Putin is so confident in his WW2 style military with huge waves of human casualties because life is cheap in Russia, he should invade a NATO country and see what happens.
@@joeiborowski9763 Ukraine is now a modern military with weapons and i believe it is now also the largest military in Europe. It has communication systems, drones, sattelite support etc. And Russia is currently the only country to have fought a modern military.
What does GDP matter? What matters is experience and knowledge in fighting a modern military. You can have all the fanciest stuff in the air, but if the air is contested by both sides there is only boots-on-the-ground style combat left. And Russia is now the only country with real experience.
The US and EU their “experience” currently exists out of bombing some ISIS members with their drones or fighting 50+ year old Taliban farmers with a hunting rifle or rusty AK. None of them have fought an equal military the last few decades.
@@MercedesBenxx Ukraine had the same military equipment and strategies as Russia being a former USSR republic and with even more outdated 80's era equipment. They just got some newer western equipment in small numbers and not even the best in western stockpiles. No aircraft, no naval support, no longe range missiles, limited amount of artillery, a few anti missile defenses, they are worst than Iraq for tha time, yet Iraq was conquered in 2 weeks. Has Russia ever in modern times fought the 4th largest army with hundreds of jets, thousands of tanks, long range missiles and still kick their asses in 2 weeks?
Hey William. Great video's as always. I have been a strong critic of Ukraine not doing what it should have been doing for the last 10 years. There should be no reason that they would or could not have fortified those areas prior. They need to get all the civilians and non combat troops to be digging laying mines traps and god knows whatever else there is. Ukraine lost Avdiivka due to both America and EU letting it down. They do these pledges which mean and equal dick until they arrive and are ready to be used. I can pledge 2,000 dollars to help vets but if I never send it what good is that. Ukraine squandered the one resource they are extremely limited on. Ukraine better get its crap in order because if they do not then they might as well toss in the towel. Now if they want to make a fight out of it there are many tactical ways to do so. Excluding one and that is because russians care little about there soldiers. I wish I was 20 years younger cause I would sign up for a medics post. The guardian angle's of the battlefield. 68W
looking back to summer , it doesn't seem like this purely game theoretic approach did too well
0720 here & what a fine way to start my day. Thanks LoM Corp.
NATO, the EU and all civilised democracies must support Ukraine with all that it needs.
All European nations yes while the US needs to focus on the border & preparing for the shitshow which will be the 2024 election
Agreed
@Barnie-pi7mk no, the US is in the best position to support Ukraine.
@@snowthearcticfox1 we need to focus on the home from and the issues stateside we’ve been fucking around in Europe since wwii at this point just send us troops in to fucking end this now and overthrow Putin’s regime.
@@snowthearcticfox1 Due to political dysfunction over here (primarily Mike Johnson blocking all the aid), I fear that the EU and Ukraine will have to operate under the assumption that aid from the US will only come after the election at the earliest.
One of your best analyses recently. Easy to follow and topics well connected
If our politicians fuck this up I will despise them. They have this one chance fight real fascists.
They sure do. A real, historic moment to prove their worth!
Why not just become one lol
The US is just as facist as Russia. Princeton did a study that showed the US is not a democracy anymore.
@@Alb410I presume that's a rhetorical question.
@@Alb410Read the room joe
Really riles me up seeing NATO members NOT doing their part. This is the biggest conflict in Europe in decades, yet they just sit around waiting for America take over their homework and responsibilities. Like, this isn't the Middle East wars, where every European was comfortable criticizing the US for its failures and grand spending. This is literally next door. These Slavic states are not some hillbilly backwaters; for decades they had to endure Soviet and Russian suppression.
Europe is now giving more money to ukraine than the U.S.
The main problem is that europe does not have huge stockpiles of guns and ammo, and it takes time to get factories up and running.
The desire to keep the war going in the US wanes daily. Most Americans are getting fatigued hearing billions more are going to Ukraine when there's tons of internal issues. Most Americans don't want to hear that X billion more is going to Ukraine as they are living paycheck to paycheck with the borders wide open, housing unaffordable, wages stagnant with inflation etc. If the US was booming and things were going well I think alot more people would be ok with aid, but the US is burgeoning right now under dozens of different problems internally. @@jetzenijeboer4854
I think you are underestimating just how much European nations have done to support Ukraine. The US may be making the big ticket contributions like tanks and jets and Patriot Systems, but European nations are doing their part (and in monetary terms even more so than the US) to support Ukraine with other materiel, military or civilian in order to keep Ukraine in the fight.
I mean... if Ukraine hadn't wasted a pile of stuff on that offensive they'd probably be fine still.
NATO countries pledge to aid other NATO countries if attacked but NATO won't accept Ukraine because Ukraine is at war which would require NATO countries to come to the aid of Ukraine. Get it, NATO isn't about peace, it's about feeding the US military industrial complex with the 2% of each countries GDP which is required to be spent of "defense". These defense contractors are located in the United States who give kickbacks to the politicians.
You think so
NATO should clearly be worried now that russia truly showed their true strenght : taking more losses than they suffered in Afganistan to capture a city even smaller than Bakhmut.
The only thing we should be worried about is NATO / West Europe still not having the will to deal with russia and support Ukraine properly.
Worried or scared of russia itself ? As the strongest military alliance ? Nope.
They didn’t just decide 3 years into this war to “show their true strength”
Ukraine is losing steam and the Russians are simply benefiting from that
Unfortunately Americans have more important things to negotiate internally and neither side cares to give in much.
And everyone else was happy to ride the peace dividend.
Never seen so many contradictions in few sentences. Russia is miserably losing in ukraine yet at the same time russia is dangerous? Russia cant take kyiv yet at the same time nato is in danger despite an attack on nato would require ridiculous amount of manpower and material ?
@@u2beuser714 never take someone with a country ball profile picture seriously
@@MrAnihillatorFortunately russia is also dealing with a lot of problems of their own. Yes, I am aware Ukraine also does not have what they need after two years. But doom posting so much because of Avdiivka is bordering on laughable.
UK and Germany heavy hitters. 😂😂😂
Well well well if it isn't my dinner aid. Just in time for some chicken and taters
They forced the bear to dance and the bear chose the rhythm and the end of the dance.
yes. They forced putin to send troops to invade a country. sure.
and then the bear chose to end the dance. But only now. The bear, so it seems, did not want the end the dance in 2022. A masochistic bear?
you are a brain dead troll.
Because France has no more access to Niger uranium, Macron want to go to war in Ukraine 😅😅😅
Typical westren propaganda avdivka doesn't matter it's not a strategic location??!! So why it has been fortified like a fortress one of the most fortified places in Ukraine is avdivka 😅
Thank you man always tell what it’s is!
Thank you!
Another question..... Why after two years, Russia with its superior fire-power still cannot defeat Ukraine?
Hello Professor Spaniel, I have watched several of your videos - You do a great job, and I love it. Can you please make some videos on the Russian capture regions, Donetsk, Luhansk, Bakmus, Avdiivka, and Zaporizhzhia? Are any of the Indigenous people contributing anything to the war effort? aiding Ukraine? or aiding RUSSIA?
I could provide you with a quick answer as Ukranian. In short - some people still resist silently, most of people are complacent due to brutality with which Russian deal with opposition. If you’re not a big figure you just can’t oppose the repressive machine of this size, I don’t blame them. This is a horror that this type of imperialism brings - when the territory of a country goes to the other side it is purged of any resistance. Russians also bribe local population with pensions and monetary support when they arrive, which could be considered smart move but the issue here is that they don’t continue that policy - its a temporary bandaid to get enough people complacent and then pull the rug from under them, so the people suffer anyway. Most of younger folks tried to leave the occupied zones, and older population cannot really contribute to the economy but is required for the propaganda machine. Also men are mobilized on occupied territory to dig entrenchments and do menial jobs for Russian army, this is one of the reasons why they had these extensive lines.
Those regions have a majority of Russian speaking people. These people from the Donbass region have fought against the agression of the Nazi Ukrainians for many years and now feel liberated
Great comment about Garasimov!
Excellent as usual!!
Your very best recent episode. An excellent synopsis. Thank you !
Is it possible that "Gerasimov" is a combination of the efforts of Russia's best taxidermists combined with one of Elon Musks robots? It took a while to get it right, and enfin, here we are..
Shared this one on FB - thanks.
Always interesting - this one seems to have stopped short, but very well argued nonetheless! Thank you for all your efforts!
The American people should remember their past when they fought for freedom and independence against the British Empire. Can we simply stand by and do nothing in the face of those who are now fighting for freedom, independence, and democracy on the side of the United States, risking their own lives?
Seemingly unbiased analysis. Good journalism.
“Ukraine should have dug in, fortifyed, and used what ranged tools they had to render the Russian’s into a fine red paste before launching any offensive operations.”
Ukraine can't afford to do that because their arms are contingent on giving a good report card to the US, and the Republican party has been compromised by Russia, so any setback is amplified to a catastrophic failure that justifies withholding aid money.
Ukraine needs the West to commit to this war and provide an environment of certainty so that Ukraine feels it is worthwhile to do long-running operations. Instead, the US has failed to pass military aid and Europe is just now starting to ramp up military production when Russia started 1-2 years ago.
The West seems to have no game plan and was just hoping Ukraine would "desert storm" Russia with no F16s, no massive fleet of Abrams, no swarms of ATACMS, through the Surovikin line.
Didn't they dig in too? And ran out of ammo? They don't have enough ranged tools to beat Russia, never did.
Except Russia still has significant artillery and aircraft superiority, especially now that the traitors in the US Congress have been conveniently withholding military aid from Ukraine.
Sitting back and trading ranged blow for blow is not a viable or sustainable option for Ukraine.
fortifyed ? English must not be your first language
@@ColdNavigatoryou are correct at the very end of your post, there is no plan for Ukraine. This is a major problem and probably the biggest reason why they haven't brought the bill up for a vote. There are absolutely no plans, no accountability for the weapons or funds being sent and the Democrats want it that way, which is insane. The other big reason is due to the fact that we are having a major crisis at our borders, that absolutely, needs to be addressed way before another conversation about this war has even started.
I have played some strategy games and looked at defenses , Ukraine's Military planers are looking at where the Russians have over extended themselves and snatch the advantages.
Skip ad: what were they thinking. All offensive, no defenseive.
Finally some neutral analysis
So Russia uses 5-10 times more art shells, uses 2000 JDAMs every month, uses the same number of fpv drones to infatnry
Russia uses 3 time more millitary vehicles
But Russia uses meat waves / or have more losses than Ukraine?
Meat wave is attacking positions without any help of vehicles, artillery, air force and etc(by definition ).
Why haven’t you made a video about Zaluzhniy? It would have been interesting because one, we’re shifting to a new Ukrainian strategy, and two, the power dynamics between him and Zelenskiy, and the popularity and status Zaluzhniy still has
Ukraine is doomed...
I love these, William. Thanks for sharing.
I don't see Avdivka as a failure for the Ukrianians, I see it as preserving the Army to fight another day. This was a good move.They got there guys out, and the Russians did not pursue. Avdivka is a puric victory for the Russians.The soldiers is what was valuable there, they can now fight on and teach others what they know. In all of this nobody has said out loud and clear that its in our interests that Ukraine wins this war. All they have to do is to not lose, they are not losing.
Russia are strategic geniuses….this only cost them 50,000 men. Brilliant
Could you do a report on why "Factory Operations Take Years to Scale Up?" I don't buy it. Maybe they take years to scale up if your crew is working 35 hour weeks, as if you're making luxury goods and lives are not on the line. We're not talking about building semiconductor fabs here. Get your a$$ in gear and get the troops what they need.
The materials don’t exist in the west anymore. They must be imported from other countries. Then the personell must be hired and trained
It's pretty simple really. European countries couldn't push for emergency scale ups even if they wanted to. It'd be political suicide. Politically forcing workers to work more than necessary would be extremely unpopular. Also the money spent on helping Ukraine could be spent better in our home countries according to some people. We already see political pushback to helping Ukraine, even if it's not much.
@paranoiaproductions1221 That is absolutely true in the US.
With inflation, homelessness & a full blown invasion on the Southern border, it's hard to expect people to want to send billions of dollars to other countries while our own domestic problems (and debt) continue to rise.
Firing Zaluzhnyi for calling the war an attritional stalemate, and promoting Syrskyi who's own troops nicknamed "the butcher of bakhmut" for his disregard for his own men's lives feels like a PR nightmare that the press is going to have to do their acrobatics routine around when it becomes common knowledge.
I do enjoy these deep, very deep videos!
Which Gerasimov did they actually find?
Man, I love lines on maps.
With Russia switching to a wartime economy and providing almost endless manpower to the front, I believe all European NATO countries are beginning to see this as an ongoing conflict that moves west each month
"Russia Captures Avdiivka" the 20 min tangent
Battle for adviivka started in October 2023
I must be getting old. I remember a time when the flag meant something to me. Now, sadly, when I see the flag being waived by someone or flying on a truck, I can only think of the lunacy, division, and hate that wields it and not the unity that our forefathers fought and died for. I was a Republican; I wore the uniform for 15 years and still serve the department of the Navy today. I was never confused about who our friends and enemies were, and I was willing to do my duty to make sure that our values and way of life continued. I’ve never believed a country that would take its peoples lives or freedoms for, questioning the unprovoked attack of a neighbor, the placing of a flower on a monument, expressing sorrow for the murder of women and children, running for office, or the wearing of blue and yellow clothing could ever be our friends. I was raised to be willing to fight that kind of oppression. A country isn’t great because its people believe it is, it’s great because other people around the world sees them for who they are, what they stand for, and what they are willing to fight for. Now, when an ally needs us the most in a life-or-death situation, a segment of our government has lost that clarity of right and wrong. The very folks that I thought would always be there to defend freedom, to fight against the enslavement of a free people who were just trying to find their place in this world are abandoning them. The combined GDP of Europe and the US dwarfs Russia. A couple more years of resolute support for Ukraine could collapse the Russian economy if they are so foolish as to try and match us. We do not need to sacrifice one solitary soldier. We only need the will to win this… the Ukrainians do, and they are the ones who are dying. God help us to remember who we once were and let us do the right thing.
Delusional
As you said the weak north Russian offensive was a distraction so Russia could take the south ,I think this was on purpose ,the Russian wanted a land bridge to Crimea and all of the Donbass ,when they have all of Donetsk region ,they will have all they wanted ,anything more is a bonus
Well, seems he has you all listening intently. As do I. Subliminally his voice is getting everyones attention, mine included. See nothing unusual about it. I watch quite a few others reporting on the situation in-between their "ads". They act like they are war strategists and are wrong quite often. I'm good with this guy. His perspective is interesting to say the least. Comments from all are great. Got me smiling. Thanks for vid bro/Professor.
NAFO bots coping so hard and this isn't even the full story 🤣🤣
"The strongest warriors are Time and Patience" - Lev Tolstoy. Russia`s got both
Avdiivka boredered Donetsk which up to 2022 had no Russian troops only pro russian separatists which can be considered ukrainians which are ethnic russians
Theres a lot of important points you didnt touch
The little zoom-in on Putin’s finger 😂😂
Best channel
What happened to the F-16s?
WITH CAPITULATION