Chris Cole has always been on another level. His writing on volatility is beyond good....it's captivating and has been what has pushed me viewing the world through volatility.
My absolute favorite Real Vision interview. Chris Coles work is invaluable and I will preach about his work wherever and whenever I can. Absolutely brilliant.
Thank you Realvision for sharing this. I have been following Chris for a while now I am genuinely grateful for the ideas Chris shares. My family's well being is and will continue to be profoundly improved because of it.
been watching videos on this topic for months and months. Is there a mutual fund or an etf which creates a strategy like this or an "everlasting" portfolio for the small investor ? I see how people with high net worth can hire a firm to execute but i think the costs for a small investor might be a hindrance. Any ideas would be greatly appreciated. I would like to see videos on how small investors can take advantage of this information to protect themselves but hope Real Vision and other great channels would begin making videos from our perspective .
yea you can tell he's one of those geniuses who was only limited in prominence from lack of interest/opportunity in top tier education. USC is pretty good but not like a Harvard or Princeton. I knew another guy who looks very similar with the same vibe who dominated IB competitions and was in those TV quiz contests as a kid. Real geniuses. Opportunity isn't fairly distributed for everyone. The smartest guy I know had both parents Ivy league PhD's so he could learn Calc by middle school and later finish entire department course offerings from Princeton University while in high school. He joined MIT in the middle of 10th grade, completing a doctorate by 22. That type of person is exceptional but I think a lot of people 'smart enough' could do at least a decent fraction of that if they were brought up in a conducive environment that offered such potential.
Fascinating concept. I'm unsure of how you truly invest in long vol without tremendous counterparty risk. At an extreme, I could bet you that the world will not end tomorrow. It's an extremely safe bet on my part, and if that (or something similarly cataclysmic) were to occur, how would you ever collect?
What I'd like to see is a rough, first order approximation of a long vol strategy. For example, buy "X" instrument and simultaneously short "Y". Cost is one issue, but so is counterparty risk. For example, how would devoting a certain percent of portfolio to buying out of the money puts on SPY work out? Calls (or debit spreads) on VIX-related ETFs? Gold bullion?
So when i hear traders "sell the vol (volatility)" - what does that mean in terms of an actual trade? shorting a stock? buying a stock? ie GME vol is off the chart - well now what strategy do I do to capitalize on that?
You would sell GameStop Calls or Puts to "short vol". To long vol, then you would buy GME calls or puts. Going long the S&P would also be "short vol" (Since S&P dips correspond to rise in vol 95% of the time)
I think we are suffering more from warning fatigue. Every year there is a new crisis. SARS, mad cow disease, ebola, zika, banks, dot com, 911, pensions........... It is no wonder ppl tend to ignore crisis when everything is a crisis.
does anyone think civil war or massive unrest is not possible in the current inequality ridden usa. really look at facebook posts, its all i hate x and i hate y. the funny thing is x and y hang out together at the Hampton's every summer but they keep dividing the people into a frenzy. accident, im not so sure it is....if i was in finance i'd def start worrying about social instability. your guest was right on the money with that observation. the risk does not go away it just changes form.... lots of hidden players pushing this to a boiling point....
Let me try: Negative correlation between stocks and bonds are engineered and not natural. Invest some of your money in gold/bitcoin or something which can be considered as a store of value. I personally go for gold mining stocks.
Chris Cole has always been on another level. His writing on volatility is beyond good....it's captivating and has been what has pushed me viewing the world through volatility.
Absolutely love the work done by Chris and his team at Artemis. Those papers are available for free.
My absolute favorite Real Vision interview. Chris Coles work is invaluable and I will preach about his work wherever and whenever I can. Absolutely brilliant.
Thank you Realvision for sharing this. I have been following Chris for a while now I am genuinely grateful for the ideas Chris shares. My family's well being is and will continue to be profoundly improved because of it.
This whole conversation is a piece of art! Thanks!
Listening to this today is like more relevant than ever
44:00 within a few days of this interview, the massive spike happened and wiped out short volatility ETF - XIV "Volmageddon"
This guy is the Aristotle of investing. I like.
IS THIS GUY FROM THE FUTURE? IT"S 2020 and he couldn't be more right.
Respect to Chris, this is one of the best conversations I've ever listened to. Kudos to Grant as well for facilitating this, great job!
Sharp guy with 360 awareness.....cannot disagree with his logic and very well researched insight....
I love the fact he has a BA in cinematography...truly unique
been watching videos on this topic for months and months. Is there a mutual fund or an etf which creates a strategy like this or an "everlasting" portfolio for the small investor ? I see how people with high net worth can hire a firm to execute but i think the costs for a small investor might be a hindrance. Any ideas would be greatly appreciated. I would like to see videos on how small investors can take advantage of this information to protect themselves but hope Real Vision and other great channels would begin making videos from our perspective .
Excellent, thought provoking interview. Thank you for sharing.
Is it just me or does Chris, more than a lot of people even on Real Vision, radiate extraordinarily freakish intelligence?
YES! I thought the same thing after I listened to an interview he did for Marco Voices.
Like Dorothy Thompson before him, Chris be on point; not many
Quants could rock game this tight...
NOT just you ...go ck out his vid on VIX up down thing from years ago it amazing super kool
yea you can tell he's one of those geniuses who was only limited in prominence from lack of interest/opportunity in top tier education. USC is pretty good but not like a Harvard or Princeton. I knew another guy who looks very similar with the same vibe who dominated IB competitions and was in those TV quiz contests as a kid. Real geniuses.
Opportunity isn't fairly distributed for everyone. The smartest guy I know had both parents Ivy league PhD's so he could learn Calc by middle school and later finish entire department course offerings from Princeton University while in high school. He joined MIT in the middle of 10th grade, completing a doctorate by 22. That type of person is exceptional but I think a lot of people 'smart enough' could do at least a decent fraction of that if they were brought up in a conducive environment that offered such potential.
Listening to this in 2020 and its scary that all of the things he said are not out of the realm of happening or have happened already.
Really good timing on this video
Amazing timing. Great to see Chris get vindicated this past week.
Called it! Stocks & bonds both down bad now
Fascinating concept. I'm unsure of how you truly invest in long vol without tremendous counterparty risk. At an extreme, I could bet you that the world will not end tomorrow. It's an extremely safe bet on my part, and if that (or something similarly cataclysmic) were to occur, how would you ever collect?
Interesting discussion
What I'd like to see is a rough, first order approximation of a long vol strategy. For example, buy "X" instrument and simultaneously short "Y". Cost is one issue, but so is counterparty risk.
For example, how would devoting a certain percent of portfolio to buying out of the money puts on SPY work out? Calls (or debit spreads) on VIX-related ETFs? Gold bullion?
I have a new favorite comic book supervillan. He doesn't cause the end of the world, he foresees it in the math and profits exponentially from it.
So when i hear traders "sell the vol (volatility)" - what does that mean in terms of an actual trade? shorting a stock? buying a stock? ie GME vol is off the chart - well now what strategy do I do to capitalize on that?
You would sell GameStop Calls or Puts to "short vol". To long vol, then you would buy GME calls or puts. Going long the S&P would also be "short vol" (Since S&P dips correspond to rise in vol 95% of the time)
Great stuff even if you run a lemonade stand, this guy is spot on , pay attention
Artie knows it all!
Excellent presentation. Thanks for posting.
I think we are suffering more from warning fatigue. Every year there is a new crisis. SARS, mad cow disease, ebola, zika, banks, dot com, 911, pensions...........
It is no wonder ppl tend to ignore crisis when everything is a crisis.
Best interview I’ve ever seen. I didn’t disagree with a single statement.
46:10 the watch is the one of snake pliskeen :)
This aged well
Great interview
does anyone think civil war or massive unrest is not possible in the current inequality ridden usa. really look at facebook posts, its all i hate x and i hate y. the funny thing is x and y hang out together at the Hampton's every summer but they keep dividing the people into a frenzy. accident, im not so sure it is....if i was in finance i'd def start worrying about social instability. your guest was right on the money with that observation. the risk does not go away it just changes form.... lots of hidden players pushing this to a boiling point....
Peter Thiel's younger brother?
Nothing goes to zero as we move from beans to grains ?
this was great
He reminds me a lot like Peter Thiel.
2:28 he took his 100k/200k and made it more than a million.
Anyone want to put this shit in English for me so I know what to do with my lemonade stand money. k thanks
I understood exactly 15% of that
Let me try: Negative correlation between stocks and bonds are engineered and not natural. Invest some of your money in gold/bitcoin or something which can be considered as a store of value. I personally go for gold mining stocks.
Live off the grid
Federal reserve destroys duration ?
Value -added taxes?
2020 pandemic, Chris Coles fantasy played out.
Magic punchbowl?
There is something strange about this man....
a bit darker approach ;D
meme reversion? Unbelievable - this guy called GameStop
41 minutes in: Coronavirus
Vol? What is vol? Is that like volatility? What does it represent.
Lis sync is bad
Plastics!