You left out the 3 aces which would possibly give you best hand. A 3x raise on his bet is best move in this situation. You can't compare to options because you can win MANY hands in poker without having the best hand
What about the implied odds? There is still one more betting round to go after that river comes out. If you hit that heart, you may win his whole stack if he has two pair, a set, or a lower flush.
3 out of 100 bots, who do I give my credit card number to for that plan? haha I really like your using other examples of using probabilities, ie poker and sports betting, I personally enjoy both of those as well. While I knew the principle of your r/r needed calculation I've actually never seen the formula to use to calculate it, thank you! One thing about getting down on your earnings plays, iirc, you only had to hit 1 out of 5 to break even. 1 round of 5 trades with high risk/rewards failing isn't a big enough sampling imo, and I really liked your mixing in of long trades as its easier to get to a higher risk/reward
Thank you for the encouragement on the earnings trades. I may decide to try again once I have profits to risk instead of my starting capital and earnings season heats up again.
A very interesting video, in my understanding the result of the division should be a maximum of % R/R and not a minimum because every percentage above the result means a lower chance of profit and actually an increase in the chance of loss
Jack, would this formula work for neutral short-term trades like Iron Butterflies, where max profit is rarely (if ever) captured? If so, would you use the Probability of Profit % (the gravy as you called it) vs the Probability of Max Profit % to set up your calculations? Also, will this formula be built out as a recipe to add to automations? It seems like the numbers will be different for each possible trade, so how can it be utilized w/o placing trades manually?
Yes, the EV value is a much more complex formula that factors in all the price points in between the strikes as well. I believe there's still value in displaying it though. We will add it for the release coming next weekend.
Yes, it may take a while for the value of a probability approach to show a durable edge. However, waiting for 1,000 trades to see an edge is waiting too long. If that happens, some part of your modeling is flawed.
the extra gravy " ) is theta and IV drop .. like this way better than the coin flip " ) If you see Kirk see if he knows where that 52 cards in a deck vid he did moons ago is hiding should be shared far and wide " ) changed the way I trade BOOM
You left out the 3 aces which would possibly give you best hand. A 3x raise on his bet is best move in this situation. You can't compare to options because you can win MANY hands in poker without having the best hand
What about the implied odds? There is still one more betting round to go after that river comes out. If you hit that heart, you may win his whole stack if he has two pair, a set, or a lower flush.
3 out of 100 bots, who do I give my credit card number to for that plan? haha I really like your using other examples of using probabilities, ie poker and sports betting, I personally enjoy both of those as well. While I knew the principle of your r/r needed calculation I've actually never seen the formula to use to calculate it, thank you! One thing about getting down on your earnings plays, iirc, you only had to hit 1 out of 5 to break even. 1 round of 5 trades with high risk/rewards failing isn't a big enough sampling imo, and I really liked your mixing in of long trades as its easier to get to a higher risk/reward
Thank you for the encouragement on the earnings trades. I may decide to try again once I have profits to risk instead of my starting capital and earnings season heats up again.
Thank you Jack. Do you have any backtesting data on this?
A very interesting video, in my understanding the result of the division should be a maximum of % R/R and not a minimum because every percentage above the result means a lower chance of profit and actually an increase in the chance of loss
Jack, would this formula work for neutral short-term trades like Iron Butterflies, where max profit is rarely (if ever) captured? If so, would you use the Probability of Profit % (the gravy as you called it) vs the Probability of Max Profit % to set up your calculations?
Also, will this formula be built out as a recipe to add to automations? It seems like the numbers will be different for each possible trade, so how can it be utilized w/o placing trades manually?
I like that formula. Unless I am not seeing it, that doesn't appear to be calculated in the stats. Or is that essentially factored into the EV value?
Yes, the EV value is a much more complex formula that factors in all the price points in between the strikes as well. I believe there's still value in displaying it though. We will add it for the release coming next weekend.
@@OptionAlpha Thank you, that would be great:)
Yes, it may take a while for the value of a probability approach to show a durable edge. However, waiting for 1,000 trades to see an edge is waiting too long. If that happens, some part of your modeling is flawed.
the extra gravy " ) is theta and IV drop .. like this way better than the coin flip " ) If you see Kirk see if he knows where that 52 cards in a deck vid he did moons ago is hiding should be shared far and wide " ) changed the way I trade BOOM
If I thought i could make more than the monthly fee, it would be more interesting.
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