Should I Buy Upper Deck Young Guns Hockey Cards? | Sports Card Speculation
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- Опубликовано: 16 ноя 2024
- In this episode we discuss whether or not you should buy Upper Deck Young Guns cards now and into the future. This is one of the areas of sports card speculation where I see a clear vision of the future.
I review some data from 2013 to the current day and lay out what will happen when Connor Bedard's cards are released by Upper Deck next year. Warning to those who focus on Young Guns cards, you won't like the prediction.
Let me know your thoughts. 
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I have a mint Bure and Fedorov young guns, and they told me it's worth nothing, and these guys were bonified surperstars
It is tough to believe that those cards could hold such little value but when the printing is out of control it sends people to the sidelines.
My prediction is the young guns short print cards will hold value and the base ygs will tank. Stuff like clear cuts, speckles, silver foils, exclusives, French will be fine
Thanks for the prediction. I need to get more educated on the short prints as I haven't done much with them except lose a whole bunch of YG Exclusives auctions
totally agree
@@kneelbeforethelord917 Am glad we are aligned.
Good points about YG and grading. People seems to be rushing to grade cards but in the current market, once prices go down they will have lost money as most won't hold value. And they will have graded them at a high value price. I think the grading business right is for quick resale and not holding them. My thoughts. Great video!
Thanks for jumping in, appreciate the kind words and you jumping into the conversation. I tend to agree with your grading market assessment at the moment.
I think you make some really good points. I think the young guns continue to be popular because of the price point and affordability. Peels to a larger general mass then say SP, authentic, cup or the shiny cards. I also think Cole Caufield is in a very unique market Which spike his grading count.
Thanks for the note and for watching.
You make some good points as well. I can't wait to see where the Caulfield POP report numbers end up.
I prefer many of the #'d rookie cards over the thousands of YG's.
Great video and thank you for sharing! This is very insightful. 21/22 and 22/23 YGs have been pretty bad as far as quality goes (as many have mentioned). I too am very curious about the numbers behind people who crack 8 or 9 slabs to resubmit? I know and have heard a lot of this happening...but to what extent..I have no idea as there's really no way to collect that data. For me personally, I just straight up buy YGs if I am investing. I really only break boxes and/or packs for fun as trying to pull rare cards is an expensive an often fruitless endeavor. Lately, I too have though about getting away from collecting base YGs going for YG variations (silver foil, rainbow, french, clear-cut, exclusives..etc) or OPCP rookie serial variations. The trade off is that these are (can be) much more expensive to invest in. Looking forward to more of your videos! Take care.
Thanks for the note and the thoughts, you make too much sense!
Definitely good points on Young Guns and the increasing population numbers. I'm more focused on adding graded vintage HHOF rookie cards to my collection.
Makes more sense to me, thanks for the note and for jumping in.
Good video and interesting take. Hard to see another card overtaking a flagship rookie in overall appeal to collectors.
You certainly raise a good point. It feels to me like the herd has gotten too big so folks will start looking elsewhere when there is no upside in the cards. I look at it similar to my philosophy with base basketball cards once 2019 rolled around, just walk away.
I prefer canvas Young Guns. If I pull a standard Young Guns I sell or trade it. Unless it's a PC Player.
The Canvas cards are nice looking. Thanks for the note.
Very insightful video, much appreciated. Quite curious your take on the value of YG Exclusives moving forward? I always thought with Exclusives /100 high gloss /10 it might be a solid strategy to maintain scarcity, hence maintain value
Thanks so much for jumping in and for the kind words. I think YG Exclusives would be great to go towards, my problem is that all of them just cost so much - I never even come close to winning any of those at auction.
@@cacsports Ya they can get up there alright. One last interesting tidbit regarding print runs. I know a number of breakers, and the rate at which exclusives get pulled is dramatically less frequent than years prior. For example 4 years ago a YGE got pulled approx every 2-2.5 cases, this years crop is averaging approx one every 6 cases or so. Anyhow gives you an idea of the overall increasing print run
@@rickmather7062 Thanks for sharing, that does help understand the print runs with some more facts.
I think collectors will still be collecting the Young Guns, but not sure that people who are looking to profit from the past 2015 Young Gun cards will look to other options. But, what other options are really out there for true rookie cards that are low end, OPC? Future Watch rookies are all numbered so they’re highly collectible. Maybe the parallels of the Young Guns will be the sought after cards, that are numbered. Good data and thanks for sharing. Love the hockey content.
Can't believe I missed this comment Ken, thanks for the note. I am thinking more about the parallels as a way to participate but they are tough to find.
I just have to wonder if people will start feeling fleeced due to the price action that will occur - more downside.
There's no question Upper Deck is overprinting Young Guns cards but there's another issue that is resulting in these inflated grading numbers. You touched on it with the quality control problem. Lots of cards that are sent in do not come back a 10 and when that happens, 8's and 9's get cracked out of their slabs and resubmitted which artificially inflates the total numbers. Makes it look like there's hundreds or even thousands more graded cards out there than actually exist. Regrading didn't happen as frequently prior to 2020 because QC was better at Upper Deck but also PSA was willing to grade on more of a curve than they do now.
Interesting, so you think the grading numbers are artificially high? I suppose it's possible but I find it hard to believe they are that significant. Maybe that's just because I dont have the guts to crack/resubmit.
Hopefully UD can address the QC issue.
@@cacsports I do think they are artificially high to an extent...but there's no way to say for sure what that extent is. Lots of people crack slabs when they don't get the grade they want.
I've always have an interest in hockey cards, but only started to collect a couple of months ago. What I have noticed is the quality of the cards...especially the new 2022 releases, are terrible! Dents, scratches, edge chipping...you name it. Most of the cards I buy are raw and I submit to grade myself. I have had a McDavid, Matthews, Elias Pettersson, Jack Hughes, Makar, Draisaitl, all come back as gems. Every single 2022 card I've bought has had issues and 2021 is worse. I think that's the explanation for so much more lower grades....UD just isn't putting out a quality product anymore.
Spot on. Same experience. 2020 the last year of good quality. 21 brutal. 22 slightly better but still rough. Great collection you have there!
Wow, real stories from the front lines. Congrats on all of the winners from the prior years.
@@matthewbennett4151 You would think in this technological age cards would be of higher quality.
@matthewbennett4151 thanks Matt! I have been watching hours on hours of videos like these to come up with who I wanted to buy. I'm still a little leery on the long term value of the Young Guns cards as they are so mass produced... but I'm too nervous about putting crazy money like the prices of Future Watch Autos into a sport I don't really understand too much lol
@@smizu1442 I like the idea of the Future Watch autos but a lot of them do go for crazy money.
The young guns that will hold value will be exclusives out /100 and high gloss /10. The regular young guns will still hold value, just not as much as before, as they do appeal more to the average collector. Higher end cards go up in cost at a steep curve, ultimate, premier, SP authentic, the cup, etc. However the higher end cards will hold the most value as they have much more limited print runs. Example the cup true rookies /99 and /249. Which means at most in a perfect world, you would have only 99 or 249 possible graded 10 cup true rookie cards. This is a huge difference vs thousands of Young Guns.
Agree with your points for sure. See my long winded comment.
Solid points, great info. I've never seen a High Gloss Young Guns.
I actually wish, think, and HOPE that the OPC Platinum, and Allure rookies got more love! I think they are Beauty cards personally! There is rarity in the parallels, and yeah, even though I do like YGs to a certain extent…to me they are definitely overrated. Some good points made, and in the comments of others as well.
Same. I love OPCP and I am starting to like Allure even more.
@@ripzhockey I have been focused on Emerald Surge, Orange Checkers and Seismic Gold for a while. I think those are undervalued (unless you try to buy a Connor McDavid).
I tend to agree and have been buying a bunch of OPC Platinum parallels. Am in the same boat as you.
I have quite a few OPC Platinum parallels. But isn’t making 6 or 7 parallels of the same card with varying number counts manufacturing scarcity? I mean there are probably as many Jack Hughes OPC Platinum rookies as Young Guns printed, when counting the base with the parallels.
Ice Premieres on the other hand, there are only 99 rookies made for the top tier prospects. That is actual scarcity - yet they are losing “love” it appears to me.
Maybe just stick with the Future Watch Auto #999?
I think the most slept on RC is the Metal Universe E-Pack Spectrums and OPCP Color wheels. The print run is significantly lower than young guns.
I'm going after the clear cut or more rare versions of the young guns. I try to buy the highest grade possible too eg : BGS 10 because of pop and gem rate. In many cases I've seen PSA 10's sell close to a BGS 10 but down the road I think the BGS 10 will be far superior, as it should.
Thanks for the thoughts Len. I am wondering about the BGS price discrepancies that exist now and whether or not that gap could close. Am not as confident as you that they will but wiil continue to watch.
Could Bedard cause a junk wax era and break the hobby? Ive only been back into collecting for 1.5yrs. The set up seems reminds me of when I spent months of my paper route money chasing Eric Lindros rookie cards in the early 90s. Upper Deck and PSA will be the only winners.
I remember the Lindros chase as well. You raise a good point and it is anybody's guess.
LOL, your story is exactly my story.
@@bobbydice8934 We all thought we would retire on those.
@@cacsports Boy did we ever. I was living in Canada at the time and thought the red Canadian version was very rare, ha!
Great video. Makes me think how many young guns are produced for each player ? By looking at your numbers they seem really mass produced, and you only get 6 young guns in a hobby box I would of thought they aren't mass produced.
Thanks for the note. I think the supply numbers this year will be staggering and make people concerned that we are returning to the early 1990s.
The hype for Bedard reminds me a bit of Lindros back in the day. His Score rookie card was so mass produced that even today a PSA 10 is quite cheap. There are still millions of potential PSA 10s around. Lindros actually had a really really good career, but couldn't live up to the massive hype. Imagine if Bedard "only" becomes a Lindros-type.
Thanks for jumping in and for the thoughts. It feels like we are heading that way and there will be a lot for him to live up to. I wonder what the bar will be for his first year in the NHL to be deemed a success.
If my uncle was my aunt. Generational players young guns don’t drop check out Crosby and Ovy.
You can’t afford to get a Bedard I get it but it’s going to be massive.
What will be the card who will replace the young guns? That's kind of the principal rookie card. I don't think they can change that.
You raise a good point and I think you are probably correct. My main point is a move away from Young Guns as the Be All End All rookie card seems inevitable.
Since 2019 there are way more people back in the hobby and still growing. Every show I go to is packed. So I think they can get a way with printing a few more cards but not to the extend they are doing as of this year. When you compare the POP on young guns vs the other sports flagship cards the numbers are still way less. Hockey doesn't have the same people involved so they can't print the same way the other sports do. If Upper Deck continues to print to the moon eventually prices will crater especially Bedard's year. I'm staying away from that mania and he isn't McDavid so people will be disappointed. I love Young Guns because I was there back in 1990 for the very first one, so for me like other people my age we have nostalgia for them. As Don Draper said about nostalgia "its delicate but potent." As I say all this I treat young guns for what they are, a commodity card. I like having Young Guns for a player I pc but definitely not a focus for me. I'm just not going to sink a ton a money into since it is a commodity card. The Young Guns that do excite me are the clear cut, exclusive, high gloss, speckled rainbow since they are rare. My main focus is only rookie cards from The Cup, OPC Platinum, Clear Cut, PMG's. I like them because they are rare, numbered and most importantly hard signed. I think sticker autos are trash. The player either signed the card or the sticker but not both. I like FWA my only problem is there are 999 of them and are way over priced for a non rare card. Sp Authentic goes back to the mid 90's so I understand it has what the Young Guns has going for it. If I'm going to buy a FWA I prefer the inscribed since there are only 50 of them. I recently picked Jason Robertson's FWA inscribed number 001/999, I couldn't believe when I saw it was for sale. So at the end of day like anything that is valuable, RARITY is always where it's at.
Am definitely staying away from the cards, actually the only one I have is a PSA 10 Noah Dobson!
I remember that first set of Young Guns, was just thumbing through some 1990 Upper Deck the other day and noted the Bure.
Had no idea about the inscribed FWAs, but like you said, they are extremely rare.
@@cacsports Even more rare than the inscribed are the Black Future Watch Autos with Gold ink for the auto, estimated to be only 5-6 of those printed. They are awesome looking cards. I was fortunate enough to get 2 Nick Robertson and 1 Kirby Dach. Nice on your Dobson pick up, he is a solid defenseman and underrated too. Yes 1990 Pavel Bure Young Guns, that was my dude. I love that card.
@@bobbydice8934 More stuff for me to seek out and research on the Black variation
Grade out the Outbursts, Deluxe, Exclusives and High gloss, The Base just find a couple that you are strong in the belief they will gem out for Your PC , The base YGs will be like the best rookie class ever 89 Upper Deck , flooded and worth 50 Bucks for a gem because of the massive print run
Thanks for all of the thoughts. We are aligned but I think your price prediction will be high in the long run.
Agreed. No population control on Young Guns. I collect numbered Artifacts rookies instead. The only nice thing about Young Guns is you can pull them from retail. Now leave my Blackhawks alone 😛
Thanks for the note and apologies on the BlackHawks hatred. As I get older I find myself getting so mad when institutional behavior let's really bad things happen.
I should look into the Artifacts cards a bit more.
Still boxes available 😎 massive overproduction 😂
Maybe I'll grab some and do a few breaks!
The young guns are probably the less printed RC of all 4 major sports that has cards.
That's anybody's guess but it wouldn't surprise me if you are correct.
@@cacsports He is correct, go look at Acuna's main RC, printed to the moon.
@@bobbydice8934 Cool. Gonna look at some more POP reports.
I predict we will see every non-Bedard 2023-24 S2 YG be worth very little due to everyone chasing Bedard and holding and then selling the others that they get doubles and triples of. It happened in 2015-16 where the latest Mikko Rantanen YG sale on eBay was only 15 bucks! I was wondering why Hellebuyck, Fiala, Ehlers and some of those guys were so cheap until it dawned on me. Chase McDavid and sell the rest.
Great prediction. This is great information on 2015 as I wasn't really involved in the nuances of that year. I could definitely see that scenarios playing out.
I'm 40s and even I can't afford it. I bought a box last year for a ridiculous 160 bucks and when they went to 300+ because of Bedard I said no. That's it for me. I will continue to collect 80s and older but that's it.
It is pretty insane. I hope it ultimately expands the hockey card market and interest but I wonder if it will be a short term thing where people just get burned.
Young guns are the bread and butter of the hobby. Affordable and popular with the public and masses. That’s not going to change. Numbered Exclusive and high gloss young guns have much more higher ceiling then the regular base young gun. Always.
Thanks for all of the comments. Cannot disagree with any of your points.
I think the older YGs are ok, like 2015 (McDavid) and earlier. I wouldn't want to be putting a lot of money into the newer more mass produced YGs. I would go for the parallels of the more recent years unless you can only afford base. That said I would focus on collecting rather than investing, as very few hockey players (even HOFers) hold or gain value long-term.
Thanks for watching and for jumping in. SOunds like you have a solid strategy, I tend to agree with your points.
I love your content , but I think your wrong about this one. Young Guns are the flagship RC. Its not rare but its not common. With hundreds and sometimes thousands of different RCs out there Its the most recognizable and has the longest run being around since the early 90s making it great for collectors who like uniformed RC collections.
Thanks for the note and the great thoughts. Maybe I am just thinking a certain way because I have no emotional attachment to the Young Guns cards, even though I have have some of the originals which were pulled from packs back in the day.
You raise a really good point on the recognizability and uniformity aspect of the Young Guns series and why that would lead to staying power.
Congrats! Now that you have it all figured out - you are going to be rich!!!!!
Thanks for the note, I appreciate the sarcasm. If only I could short Young Guns.
I only like exclusive or high gloss young guns buy a couple each year.
Makes a lot of sense. How do you go about finding those since they are so limited?
Young guns will continue to be the most liquid cards and desired in hockey. The prices might not be in the 4 figure, but when collectors think hockey they think THE CUP, SP Futurewatch AND YOUNG GUNS!
One would think as most follow the herd. That could change when they see poor price performance similar to NBA Prizm base cards.
@@cacsports I do not think YG will ever be like NBA/NFL Prizm. YG’s are short printed in general and even if there are 100,000 YG’s produced, I think the number is in the 500,000 range considering e-pack, that pales in comparison to Prizm and all of their versions thst have base rookies cards in them. Overall, YG’s are some of the cheapest cards to get into of potential star players, I got into a lot of the 21-22 crop for less than $5 per. The key to maximizing YG profits, TO GET INTO THISE BIGGER CARDS, is research, something most do not do. The 21-22 crop is very deep and it is being proven. The lateness of the 2020-21 The Cup release and my research, helped me stock up on players, one for The Cup under $80 average. YG’s have a quality control issue as of lat and you will not see 20K PSA 10 young guns of a single player. The numbers of the past are small and will be so. The numbers going forward will be huge, especially 23-24 Series 2 because of Bedard. I got in early on stuff, graded them and have been moving them as PSA 10’s when a player gets hot. You must have the cards in hand to really profit and not have them sitting at PSA. THE market shifts fast.
I'll stick to grading future watch autographs.
I like that idea. Do you buy yours or try to pull them via packs?
2021 22 series 1 was a QA nightmare which is why the ratio 10 vs 9 is way off. 2022 23 hasn't been much better
Ugh. They really need to figure their s*&t out!
Please don’t delete this video a few years from now.
I won't. I'm actually planning to do regular videos on price performance of Young Guns cards. I have one in the works for later this month since it is about six months since this this video. Am going to try for a quarterly frequency but it may be more like 2-3 times per year.
Almost 6000 Conner Mcdavid graded and it’s still $5k for a graded 10 on PSA
I'm seeing prices between $2,500 and $3,000 right now.
@@cacsportsnot on EBay you don’t that may be starting bid.
$4500 is the the cheapest buy now option look again
Sidney Crosby young guns is so undervalued considering how low the print run is.
Perhaps my research has to go back a bit further. I always viewed his and Ovechkin's as overpriced but maybe I am thinking of it from the wrong angle.
Totally agree there are only 139 bgs 10 for Crosby. with over 500 for mcdavid but both cards are the same price.. Crosby is way undervalued even the 9.5s are the same price.
@@kneelbeforethelord917 This is a really good point, thanks for the details. I feel like I should post some follow up vids on different comparisons of a similar nature.
I've never figured out, in the last 25 years of the hobby, why would anyone want a YG over a signed future watch serial #'d 999?!?! You get not only the on card autograph, but you can see with your own eyes how many copies of these cards exist.
I think the market is still in it's "covid collectors" phase and that most of these new "collectors" are simply investors looking to make money and over the next year or two they will dump their "investments" and the prices will all drop back to pre-covid Era....which as a true collector, is just fine by me! Maybe we can get decent products, with better quality testing, and with normal price tags again...if they haven't watered it down, they've at least doubled the price. I seen the grading becoming an issue years ago with just the base of collectors back then, now with so many into it and all seeming to HAVE TO HAVE it graded will shoot the populations through the roof as well as lead to purposely bad grades by said companies to avoid overpopulation of their own gem-mints and above (above gem mint? LOL) in there counts.
Great video, would love to have a chat with you sometime.
FWA are way more expensive than Young Guns to buy.
I dont get it either but it has become the market leader and focus of everyone when it comes to hockey cards.
@@bobbydice8934 True. Do you think they will hold their value better than the Young Guns over the long term?
@@cacsports Yes since they are more rare and hard signed. I still think FWA are way over priced since there are 1k of them. I'm shocked how expensive the FWA are. I like FWA inscribed since I think its cool they add the date of their first game and there are only 50 of them.
Fantastic video and your information
You are too kind!
I dont agree with you . Young guns will be the most available so they will be the most sought after . The fact that some grade harder than others is part of the price setting .
Appreciate when folks disagree with me, I respect that. Thanks for chiming in.
Well, investors ruined the collecting hobby for kids. No kids can afford to take their allowance and go to the store and buy packs of cards, unless they are getting $50 a week, and a ride to the local card shop. Even at $50 a week there are packs that they wouldn't be able to afford. Investors have taken away a whole generation of collectors. That's why most of the guys buying cards now are 40-50-60. I hope the market absolutely crashes, and all these guys who are investors and speculators take an absolute bath.
There are plenty of cheap products for kids to buy.
The price of new releases are insane. One would think that would have to change but if breaking is still such a big part of the hobby, prices may naturally stay high.
They don’t care it’s all about money. They can care less about the youth. Card collecting is absolute garage these days. When I was kid I collected the whole set. Now everyone is buying these like there a scratch ticket. Looking for that 1/1. They’re all gambling.
Very interesting insights.
Thanks so much sir!
Grading cards is horrible, keep 'em raw... stop paying money to these grading companies who lack transparency
Thanks for jumping into the comments. I disagree with your opinion here although I agree that we could use a lot more transparency.
Of course you should buy young guns
I am hoping there is sarcasm in that note.
YG cards are terrible. Not aesthetically pleasing, over printed, base YG not serialized, no patch or auto.
I agree but everyone in the hobby seems to be brainwashed.
Young guns are not going anywhere.
probably not. I just don't think it is a good idea to continue to follow the crowd and by overproduced and cards that have been graded way too much.
@@cacsports it’s the industry standard for rookie cards. Best of luck going in a different direction.
@@dman9416 I appreciate the well wishes