The Housing Market is TOAST | WARNING to Home Buyers
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- Опубликовано: 7 сен 2024
- The Housing Market is TOAST | WARNING to Home Buyers
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DISCLAIMER: This video content is intended only for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes. Neither Real Estate Mindset or Travis Spencer are registered financial advisors. Your use of Real Estate Mindset's RUclips channel and your reliance on any information on the channel is solely at your own risk. Moreover, the use of the Internet (including, but not limited to, RUclips, E-Mail, and Instagram) for communications with Real Estate Mindset does not establish a formal business relationship.
Thanks for having me on your platform. Its always a great time.
Orlando! Thanks for the insights and your time. It's always a pleasure. Didn't even seem like 50 minutes 😅
@@realestatemindset It never does seem that long..lol
I enjoy watching these two gents even if I don't agree with all their opinions. I can't get enough of Orlando's infectious laugh ❤
Two of the best, finally a collaboration. Love it guys.
Loved this collab -- at one point O aint laugh for like 30secs, but then BAM 💥, 😊
❤
I’m a cash buyer looking to buy a farm. Many places I’m looking have had big price cuts, but damn. They are still so overpriced. It’s delusional and it feels so irresponsible to even consider buying now.
It'll happen--be patient. ....no kidding.
So many details...I get it. I was a cash buyer on my little farm in western OR..cheap. My nabe is a 30-something who bought his 5 acres for 50 G cash a couple of yrs ago. He trucks in water and uses solar and a generator and lives in his RV for now. I know times are different but I have hope for you....@@waynv1835
The combination of extremely over priced homes, rising interests rates, rising cost of living and rising unemployment is the perfect storm that very few can survive. The social engineers have created this and will bring it all down at their choosing.
Other possibility is prices stay flat, but that still hurts a lot of ppl that were counting on increasing prices to help fund when they move the next time.
They will wait for a Republican to be in office, so they can blame them for everything.
Pretty hard for that to happen when nobody’s selling. Also, this administration let 22 million people into this country over the last three years. They will let them get more mortgages easier than actual American citizens.
I've noticed a pattern where Lennar homes initially priced lower end up going under contract, but subsequently, Lennar raises the home's price. It's perplexing since the buyer likely didn't agree to the price hike. I wonder if this adjustment is intended to give the impression of a higher sale. It's certainly an unusual practice.
I love how RUclips content creators are now teaming up and creating content together. I don’t have cable RUclips is my cable keep the content comming🎉
I've always loved doing collbs. Thank you so much for commenting!
The labor market was not strong. They’re false numbers. If you look at the detail numbers. It’s people getting 2 and 3 jobs. Vast majority of holiday spending was put on credit cards. This market is about to implode
Real estate mindset, Orlando and sachs realty are the best channels for real estate
😮
Damn. Addicts
Doomers
I'm down here in the Fort Myers / Cape Coral area and I'm seeing massive discounts by the builders. It's ridiculous, but they're not reporting it all on the final appraisal. They just cover your 20K closing costs, 15K or more towards upgrades, offer 4.5% interest mortgages, and give your buyer's agent 4%. But not much of this is being reflected on the final price, so you are actually paying taxes for the full amount, Even though you are getting upwards of $40K off. But this is not going to last forever, they're going to have to start showing it on the bottom line. Meanwhile the local used homes are asking 50k to 100K above what the builders are giving away the same home for. Everything is cracking at the seams.
If I buy a new house I'll become very sad because I'll be financially stressed. Same with a new car. I need that, too, but I refuse. Will keep saving as long as possible because nothing good will come out of today.
Don’t drink the Kool-aid you don’t need a car in America. I have thrived without one for a decade now and feel a lot better about being part of the solution instead of contributing to our toxically car-centric culture.
@@StLouis-yu9izmany would have to find new jobs if they were to stop being car owners.
There are millions of low paying jobs in areas too expensive for the workers to live near work
If prices go down 20% it is still higher than before the pandemic. If you could not afford a home in Texas before the pandemic, you are SOL and will never be able to afford a home unless your income goes up 30% or more.
I agree when you add in property taxes, insurance, PIDS, MUDS, HOA. It’s insane!
Good luck with that happening. So many employers whom are so damn cheap nickel and diming everything and think that a $1.00/hour raise you should be grateful for. Even 25 cent raises. No joke. FedEx is very guilty of that and so are other big publicly traded corporations
If buyers are SOL then people who are trying to sell homes become SOL until prices drop
You really think prices are going to remain above post-pandemic levels? Those who overpaid during the pandemic are going to be upside down.
Exactly. A 20% cut off of the all-time highs/peak is not a crash.
Love the mortgage industry. “Please cut rates because if you dont we won’t be able to feed the monster we created.” The gall.
The fed doesn’t care. The fed would rather people cut prices than to lower rates because lowering rates will affect the economy more than sellers just lowering the prices but people won’t stop buying houses. Stop buying houses! Then prices will go down! Lowering rates will affect inflation in a bad way!
Wow, not sure if you guys check DC metro housing market. Houses are getting sold with 5-15 bids with all over asking price within hours or days. $50k-$300 over asking price is pretty normal on top of very high asking price. Market is super hot here. No sign of slow down, crazy.
In my normal neighborhood, in Southern California, a typical home starts at 900k , This is only a average area, I have no idea who are buying the inventory; only the top 10% have a chance at that price point. No wonder so many fled to other states.
Glad you have Orlando on today.
There are many who are upside down do to their purchase in 20 and 21. It’s these homes that are mostly on the market in my area going for 100k over true value. Ohhh and my area would be NY and norther NJ.
They gained 100k additional equity from it. Why upside down 🙃
@@xianx1866 it’s part of the inflation we are experiencing. Housing will always increase according to different factors. 20-22 homes prices were based on fill getting out of dodge or banking on work from home.
SF down from peak 26%! If you run the average price of a home in SF with 0 interest rate in a mortgage calculator, price is still unaffordable. We need a 75% drop from peak!!!
I feel like it will never drop as much as we want it to (especially pre pandemic) because they printed 80% of all money in the US in the last few years. A 15% drop from peak might be all we get.
One of you mentioned that it is also the price of the house. Everyone mentions the high interest rates, but few people mention the over-priced houses. $400,000 and up for a house, don't tell me houses aren't overpriced. Prices have no where to go but down.
or wages and salaries can go up.
@realestsatemindset Travis, I want to know if you have heard of this thing that banks are doing. I talked to my cousin yesterday who, no longer could afford their mortgage. They moved out at the end of December and stopped making payments. The bank contacted them and said that they were fixing to put them in the process of foreclosing but wanted to make them some offers they were eligible for. The first of course is the 40-year mortgage. Where they take what they owe and puts it on the back of her loan and slightly lowers her payments.. she said no to that she couldn't even afford it with that. Then they offered her the possibility of a short sale which she said they tried. They didn't even get a nibble. The last thing they offered her which she took, was to simply sign the house back over to the bank and she walks away free and clear. No foreclosure, nothing. Just sign the house back over and walk away. Which she did a week ago. Have you heard of this happening with other people? Is this a new thing? I have never heard of it nor has My cousin.
I've heard of all those things. I'm sorry to hear that about your cousin.
That is insane, never heard of that before....
Yes. A Deed in Lieu of Foeclosure.
Not only were banks doing this in 2008-10, they were offering people a month or 2 of Mortgage payments back just to surrender and sign over the deed vs walk away and force the bank to go thru with a foreclosure, this is an expensive process for the banks. As other commented became known as jingle mail. Although the homeowner avoided having a foreclosure on their credit report ... they would still end up with a $100,000K+ deficit charge off when the bank eventually sold it at a loss.
@@isotope115 proof that the real estate is a priceless asset to these banks...
New housing in my area is ridiculously high. very few new homes under 300k in suburbs or city. Its like the builders do not want to sell or build. Last year there where new homes priced 230-260k but not anymore. Inflation is not going down, look at what the government is spending month over month!!! 60-80k government jobs/month plus their benefits, illiegal alien shelter, food cards, phones, war spending, social security/medicare benefits. Rates are staying put or going higher. Sorry.
FOMC rate needed to go up to 6.5-7. Inflation is still 30-50%. Until massive layoffs and bankruptcies start nothing changes. People also need to stop all spending.
Never miss Orlando! Alpha male with an Erkel voice. Knows his stuff.
It's funny because I enjoy bacon too. During covid and the supply chain issues, I noticed that the Costco Bacon and eggs prices crept up dramatically. Thereafter, I began using both as my inflation barometers.
Awesome ❤ My two favorite RUclips channels 😄
Always good to see Orlando and Travis collab, so much information being shared. Thanks you two, for all you do.
Interest rates are not going down. Look at the stock market, its soaring. Very soon you are going to see oil prices and other commodity prices head up in response to inflation. The fed might be forced to raise rates again. Today yields soared from another hot CPI number. As long as the government is spending this kind of money, inflation will continue to soar, while they quietly bail out the banks. We are at 34 trillion in debt and by the looks of it, with interest we will be close to 40 Trillion this year. We might just go full Venezuela with 50% interest rates because nobody wants to buy our debt.
Shout out to Orlando...I follow both you guys!
Orlando is the man!
@@realestatemindset His laugh and the stitches he inputs in his videos kill me 😂
I think most of the pressure on the Fed to lower rates is actually coming from the Federal Gov’t. Not only do they have an election coming this year but the high rates are crippling the government’s ability to service their debt.
I’m following both of you guys. Great information that you always provide.
Great video with my favorites! Thanks guys! 🩵🌿💙
Thank you Lenda! Nice to see you!
Travis love seeing you guys together OrlandoMiner this one of your best and greatest video!! so injoyed this one !
If my area makes it back to pre-pandemic pricing I’d truly be surprised. The DC metro area is generally extremely resilient, especially in Northern VA where new builds are few and far between and are generally also priced near $550 - 600k+.
I’ve seen prices rise and people are going back to paying over asking price for homes again, It’s really frustrating.
They can play all the games they want with numbers , interest rates etc but when real fundamentals catch up , it will just play out to real market forces of supply and demand and in the demand side , the ability to buy.
It's not going to be the big four; it's going to be the regionals that pressure the Fed. The big four don't need to offer good rates and can layoff workers. The regionals have mostly CRE and terrible balance sheets.
How many years have you been wrong now?
Please review Frisco and Prosper TX houses. I don't see any decline there. the prices increased more than 100 percent within 3 years
Tell this Biden, according to him it is great economy
A crash would be back to 2019. At the GFC I bought property that hit selling price from 1982, in good shape full duplex $40k Central FL
That's what I'm hoping for.
Great show Travis and Orlando, one of my favorites. Best morning show on the Internet.
Thank you Jay! I really appreciate it.
$929 billion are due on commercial real state loans this year.
Look at my man Orlando!!! Congratulations dude for the exposure you’re getting!!🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉
15% is not a crash. 50% is a crash. 15% is a correction
YOU FORGOT CAR REPO'S
It will take a long time for the economy to adjust back to "normal" pre-2008 interest rates of 5-7% again. MANY prices still need to change to get back into alignment.
Agree. If we have below 4% mortgage rates again, that means we are in a terrible economic depression.
Alrighty then! The "Dynamic Duo" again. Keep giving us the bottom line and no fluff.😊❤🎉
And the rich buyers who are migrating will end right?? RIGHT?? 😭 Best comment of the show. Natives are priced out, and so now the hope, all the rich buyers are gone.
Here in WA State, particularly Yakima county, prices remain very high! Shanties are listed for extremely outlandish prices. We have low inventory and high prices!!!
Commercial property is still insane. Try renting a tiny old warehouse in Austin. You looking at 15/sq ft/yr for a cheap spot.
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Renting LOL!
Ya most business rent their warehouse space. Is this news to you?
Orlando, 2008 was an election year. The market forces slapped the Federal Reserve in the face so hard, they had to petition Congress to pass a bailout.
I love collabs. I feel like I have such an all star team of real estate experts here on youtube.
My Two Favorite You Tubers on the same episode!!!!
Morning Travis & yes!!! Orlando is in the house!👍
Let's go!!!
The sensationalism on this channel is bonkers. Yes homes are more expensive than before the pandemic. Yes the real estate market moves in waves. But the doom and gloom is bonkers. Bottom line, buy what you can afford and don’t move into a house you plan to leave in a couple of years. If you stay long term in most markets you’ll make money. Be smart with your money.
STOCK MARKET HIGHS --- fed tends to resist cutting rates when the stock market is high. Another factor, perhaps?
How about smlal markets in the midwest? We aren't budging. Prices srill ridiculous
It is here in OKC and Tulsa! Insanely over-priced houses just sitting.
im from the ham and im gonna tell you the burbs are still holding value some houses are selling @ 61% since 2020. the outskirts have not started the decline in price. how long will it take till the burbs or outskirts of metro areas see the decline.
The fed has never cut rates and there not been a recession post cut.
Home prices are just too high. Period.
Blame those chumps with 3% mortgages who would rather stay put than lose their golden ticket, they need to lower prices even if its not in their best interest and stop being selfish
Maybe I misunderstand Orlando but he’s constantly laughing at other people’s misfortunes. I’m not sure that’s a “good guy”. It’s poor behavior
What “new power” was added to the FED? What new “executive orders” are you referring to? Economic outlook predicts slowdown in 2024 but no indication of a recession. “Slush funds???” What are you talking about?
The rates today aren’t even high! We had 18 percent rates before! Especially during high inflationary times like this! Don’t expect rates to go down at all. Stop asking about it! It’s not happening!
To be fair, my local market is up 6.5% year over year and it is indeed bonkers.
Hopefully the correction still comes.
Great conversation with two of todays great intelligent minds within the real estate market.
Yes, super great info, but housing market still doing opposite what these 2 guru saying...😢
One more thing..a lot who have houses have them from a looooong time ago.....and low payments, paid off etc.....the new home buyers...usually are cops, firemen or other high paying gov employees....etc etc....then if lower income people buy....they have 3 or 4 families living together....a lot of dynamics not talked about .
Two of my favs, thanks for having the real estate meme lord on!
I don’t believe 3% rates will be forever gone. Got sub 3% loans with both of my home purchases. Once in 2012 and again at 2021 with a refi. Just my experience.
There is NO supply shortage !!!
Its an affordability shortage.
I hear you , some areas have dropped to a Crash level, but when It is going down it is hard to buy a house. When are you going to jump in?
I've been trying to jump in since 2021. I'm considering making some offers
I live in the Richmond area and there is no sign of a correction. Do you have any insight on this market?
16% drop is not enough by far!!!!!…we need a 40% average drop or more.
Do cities people want to live in….. Miami, Charleston, SC, Scottsdale AZ, Aspen Co?
This is a price correction- not a price crash. But housing prices still need to come down more. Housing is still unaffordable in current market
@realestatemindset I live in Reno and so far prices have not come down too much and homes
R selling fairly quickly. Been waiting for prices to go down but not happening right now?
Yes Orlando is very knowledgeable 17:04
Orlando Miner comes across as a friendly and happy person.
If taxes and prices continue their trajectory from the past two decades, my $1,800/mo house will cost 100k/year in property taxes in another twenty years. I did the math.
This is what people are not discussing enough. My property taxes have been insane the last few years. If people don’t plan for this they will be toast.
Thats why corporations, churches and the rich must be taxed at their fair share.
That is terrifying!
Using peak data might be skewing the decline though. You are most likely taking the peak from summer 2022 which was the peak of the bubble. I will say we need 20% price reduction from the prices from summer 2023 in order to see real affordability.
Great discussion gentleman, thanks
Concession-
I want a stainless steel Toaster .
Only Then I’ll buy.
Make that a 6 slot toaster ! Go big or go home , right?! 😅 lol
Who wants to buy one of these new homes built with unskilled labor and cheap crap.
I loveee you two. ❤❤❤❤❤❤❤
Farmland is where it's at. Screw anything else!
You mean glyphosate cancer land?
@@davidgray1515 whatever you want to call it... it'll have more value than your home I guarantee you that 🤣
Travis, can you address housing inventory. Another RUclipsr just said we have a housing shortage? How is that possible
Great collaboration
Fior the algorithm. Make sure you checkout the Marx's brother movie Coconuts made in 1929. The background was the 1920s Florida real estate boom.
Thank you Edward, will do.
Hey Traves and Orlando. I love your posts. Do either one of you know what the market is doing on Long Island NY. More specifically Suffolk County?
Can you do an updated video on Austin Texas Specially the suburb in the north like Round Rock, Pflugerville, Hutto etc.
Personally I don't think it's a matter of price vs interest rates, I think it's more a matter of the time value of money. Some people care about the overall payment at the end of the day, others care about the month to month payment because that difference can be used to invest or be used in their day to day budgeting. It really just depends on what your goals are.
My “goals” are not over-pay for a bunch of lumber, concrete, drywall, and nails! 😏
@@KAZHE63 that's a good goal for you to have.
I like both of u guys
@realestatemindset Thank you for the awesome content and the work you do. I got no debt except for a home I own in mid west. Had to move to Dallas northern suburbs for a job change. Is it still ok to buy a new home at this point or wait for some time?
So with all these apparent house price "crashes" why aren't people buying houses? Are people waiting for atleast 40-50% decrease?
Yes, waiting until things cost what they are really worth, not what some guy in a suit says they are worth.
@@davidgray1515Or waiting for a boomer in a Blackstone tshirt to lower price.. ain’t gonna happen!
No. It’s credit not cash. Home values will consistently go down for the next five years. Commercial real estate will collapse this year. Rental properties will crash with rents by this summer. New homes will crash this fall, but existing homes will slowly correct down for five years. Unemployment won’t skyrocket because boomer retirees will accelerate while employee needs will increase. Its all demographic destruction meets hyperinflation.
Have you heard anything about the USA (and world) being taken back to the Gold Standard? So the Federal Reserve will not be doing their thing anymore and there will be a global currency reset?
@MagicSwizzle I've got strong evidence for everything if you want it. Its not a casual opinion. Generally.... Commercial real estate is already crashing. Buildings are selling multiples of times less than purchase prices. That's picking up. Evictions, rental unit foreclosures, and vacancies are accelerating up into falling rents city by city across America. Corporations nor landlords are generally in a position to refinance. If they wait for the fed pivot, the value of the property will be a major problem. Home builders must sell. They've been playing a game of building homes and calling it unfinished for tax inventory and marketing purposes. They have a massive oversupply. Even though large firms are still buying new homes they are selling more at the same time. Its the same strategies they use to rig stock retail trading. If you know these strategies like I do, they are about to massively dump. The short suppy agrument is nonsensical when one looks at boomers and speculators are the major of home buyers. Moreover we realize banks have created demand....two pieces of evidence that must be seen to believed are below.
A Dallas Federal Reserve paper found it was speculation not owner occupied buyers that caused 2008.
Villains or Scapegoats? The Role of Subprime Borrowers in Driving the U.S. Housing Boom
A Philadelphia Federal Reserve paper founded that today, 30% of owner occupied purchases are actually speculators.
Owner-Occupancy Fraud and Mortgage Performance
The hyperinflation part, which will happen to save it all will put a cushion under existing homes and support the job market with reduced percentages of workers to population going into 2025 and beyond. Probably a CBDC to get instant results? What's certain is that assets control by the working classes will be tremendously reduced. PS homes that don't generate income are speculative assets, not REAL assets. Shiller as in Case-Shiller got famous by showing that in the vast majority of US history homes didn't go up in price. It's the banks, the fed, and government tax incentives to buy homes, but they can no longer keep it up.
Two absolute real estate news thumbnail titans here folks, the levels of bonkers should be immeasurable this video
I guess Maryland is the exception, prices are not going down that much. However, I have seen more foreclosures in the market. I don't want foreclosures and I prices to come down.
15% is a correction, not a crash. A crash to me would be 50% minimum.
New homes are high b/c of the cost to build period. Increasing builder incentives and doing away with red tape to build will help the average buyer.
yeah people can afford buy. everyday i see these fancy 3 bedroom plus homes peoplelove in with their fancy pickup trucks. all that cash they have. than home sells next day before i can even look. no chance for me. so many rich cash people. no inventory
Rates may not drop until Jun July. Just in time for the campaings to be kicking in.
Prices in LA and OC… up or down?
love me some orlando, he doesn't blow smoke
Louisiana is suffering a massive insurance problem.