nice video. even though their pe is still acceptable now, their distributions are sporadic. meaning, they aren't stable. would have recommended them otherwise.
I have a request for an analysis of NPK. They don't outperform the S&P 500, but they have very minimal debt and a good dividend. Their CEO/Chairmen of the Board has a significant stake in the company. They pay an annual and a special dividend every year; I had to email the company for clarification. I'm waiting for a good entry point.
I noticed that Vale has 0 retained earnings according to Yahoo finance. But in the same time they have a roughly 60% payout ratio. I couldnt find a 10K report. Whats your view on the 0 retained earnings statement. Also i noticed that Vale always has a debt to equity of more than 1
I have been looking at two Brazilian companies for some time now. One is JBS S.A., the largest meatpacker in the world. The other one is Petroleo Brasileiro or PBR (NYSE). Your analysis would be much appreciated.
The recent price action of VALE has been behaving more bullish than bearish. Dividend payments should be coming out 2 to 3 weeks from now. I will be curious to see what they will be this time. And yes, i remember the good old days of 2021. I just wish i had as many shares back then as i have now. I sold some call options against my shares. I won't be sad if some of them get called away.
Biggest factor - long-term deflation of China construction sector. Add in an ugly recession in the U.S. and western Europe and the cyclical outlook for industrial commodities is dark. But the long-term forecasts of enough capacity coming on to drive prices below $70 for iron ore in the longer-term is based on some pretty flawed assumptions.
Wait a minute. I suspect a major flaw, or at least an omitted factor, as significant if not more so, than the price of iron ore as the driving factor of Vale’s future value. You mentioned Vale is the world’s largest Iron and Nickel miner. However, your analysis was based entirely on the predicted futures price of iron ore. Why was Nickel left out of this equation? ESPECIALLY when Nickel is a significant commodity in the EV sector? If the EV market is deemed too low to contribute to Vale’s growth, the fact that it is still the world’s largest Nickel miner should have significant clout on the company’s future earnings/growth/valuation. Your analysis was very detailed and informative. I’m almost dismayed that this asset was left out of the discussion.
Thank you for the feedback. It is a fair point. The reason I concentrated only on iron is the fact that if we look for example at q3 2023 we see that iron is 83% of their business and nickel is 8%. So that is Vale's main business. I also believe that my analysis should be treated only as the first step in understanding a company and such critical thinking as you showed in your comment is exactly what every Investor should do before making any investment decisions. There is always more to learn and more to understand. Thank you very much.
@@BaldInvestor Sounds fair. I've subscribed to your channel and look forward to a revisiting this company's future prospects once Nickel has made larger contribution to it's valuation.
I enjoy watching your videos, great analysis. When compared to the performance of the S&P 500, this company really underperforms. IMO, Rio Tinto is a much better option in this space, I enjoyed your analysis of this company too. 👍
Price of iron may go substantially down in the next few years and because it is a cyclical business it may have some tough times ahead. But if I'm too pessimistic, then the up side maybe even greater.
Iron ore may in fact decrease in value for the next few years, but why did Nickel not play a role in your analysis? You stated VALE is the largest iron AND Nickel miner in the world. How is the huge demand for Nickel not a factor in Vale’s future earnings and growth?
Vale sells most of its product to China. The problem with that is Vale is located in Brazil while its biggest competitors (BHP and Rio Tinto) are in Australia. Australia is much closer to China than Brazil. Thus means that Vale has to spend more on shipping which eats into its margins.
Last I heard, Australia had decided to not sell to China over China’s attempt to “embargo” Australian iron over Australia’s anti-China political commitments. What little it does sell to China is done so at inflated prices. So Vale still has a somewhat equal footing. This may have changed, of course, but it’s just a factor that makes an impact.
Thank you for this deep dive. A few points that I found discrepancy w.r.t my analysis: 1. FCF Growth in last 10 year as per my calculation is =~15.7% 2023: $7.245 Billion, 2013 = $1.687 Billion 2. Share Buyback= ~ (-1.63%) Shares Outstanding 2023 = 4370Million; 2013 = 5153 Million. Can you please advise what is the source of the data for your calculation? It may be possible that I'm looking at an incorrect data source. I didn't crosscheck the rest of the analysis yet because I first wanted to be on the same page with the data source. Thank you!
Hi, I used QuickFS and possibly some data from Seeking Alpha. However, the video was created almost a year ago, so a lot may have changed since then. Thanks for watching.
Very interesting video, as usual, thanks for it! I currently have exposure to 2 Brazilian companies, and I'm considering VALE to be my third, I think Brazil's role in future economic dynamics is going to increase, so I want to have a part of it, and also I have doubts (I consider those to be founded) that iron prices will go as low as predicted. Current price being around USD11.5/share, I think it's a great entry point, let's see what the future brings.
Ola o governo nao tem mais participação na vale . As pessoas não tem ideia do tamanho da vale . Sem comtar o valor patrimonial que nao e corrigindo pela inflação a anos ! Grande abraço Brazilian .
![Tee Grizzley - Blow for Blow (feat. J. Cole) [Official Video]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/wNLN5xsx5dc/mqdefault.jpg)
nice video. even though their pe is still acceptable now, their distributions are sporadic. meaning, they aren't stable. would have recommended them otherwise.
I have a request for an analysis of NPK. They don't outperform the S&P 500, but they have very minimal debt and a good dividend. Their CEO/Chairmen of the Board has a significant stake in the company. They pay an annual and a special dividend every year; I had to email the company for clarification. I'm waiting for a good entry point.
Sound interesting. I will take a look at it. Thanks for the idea. 👍
I noticed that Vale has 0 retained earnings according to Yahoo finance. But in the same time they have a roughly 60% payout ratio. I couldnt find a 10K report. Whats your view on the 0 retained earnings statement. Also i noticed that Vale always has a debt to equity of more than 1
I have been looking at two Brazilian companies for some time now. One is JBS S.A., the largest meatpacker in the world. The other one is Petroleo Brasileiro or PBR (NYSE). Your analysis would be much appreciated.
actual price USD 12,37 for ADR. 20% safty margin would be rather realistic. 30% is too high.
Congratulations for analysis! Possible next one to be about Zim Integrated Shipping?
He did one 5 months ago. ruclips.net/video/duZH5RBagjQ/видео.html
He analyzed ZIM five months ago.
Thank you. I have a number of videos plan in advance but I will definitely take another look at ZIM.
Interesting analysis especially the price projections, where did you take the data from? 🙂
Hi, I think found the data on capital.com
The volume difference between your voice and the transitions is to great. Thanks for the great analysis though.
Thank you for the feedback. I will take a look at it. 👍
The recent price action of VALE has been behaving more bullish than bearish. Dividend payments should be coming out 2 to 3 weeks from now. I will be curious to see what they will be this time. And yes, i remember the good old days of 2021. I just wish i had as many shares back then as i have now. I sold some call options against my shares. I won't be sad if some of them get called away.
Biggest factor - long-term deflation of China construction sector. Add in an ugly recession in the U.S. and western Europe and the cyclical outlook for industrial commodities is dark. But the long-term forecasts of enough capacity coming on to drive prices below $70 for iron ore in the longer-term is based on some pretty flawed assumptions.
Vale and Rio Tinto will not go bankrupt so just buy them when they seem bankrupt. And then wait 5 too 7 years.
Thank you for sharing that. Interesting point.
Congratulations for analysis!
Possible please the next subject to be Zim Integrated Shipping?
Wait a minute. I suspect a major flaw, or at least an omitted factor, as significant if not more so, than the price of iron ore as the driving factor of Vale’s future value.
You mentioned Vale is the world’s largest Iron and Nickel miner. However, your analysis was based entirely on the predicted futures price of iron ore. Why was Nickel left out of this equation? ESPECIALLY when Nickel is a significant commodity in the EV sector? If the EV market is deemed too low to contribute to Vale’s growth, the fact that it is still the world’s largest Nickel miner should have significant clout on the company’s future earnings/growth/valuation.
Your analysis was very detailed and informative. I’m almost dismayed that this asset was left out of the discussion.
Thank you for the feedback. It is a fair point. The reason I concentrated only on iron is the fact that if we look for example at q3 2023 we see that iron is 83% of their business and nickel is 8%.
So that is Vale's main business.
I also believe that my analysis should be treated only as the first step in understanding a company and such critical thinking as you showed in your comment is exactly what every Investor should do before making any investment decisions. There is always more to learn and more to understand. Thank you very much.
@@BaldInvestor Sounds fair. I've subscribed to your channel and look forward to a revisiting this company's future prospects once Nickel has made larger contribution to it's valuation.
so long as looloo is in power buying any shares in a large Brazilian company is very risky
I agree, when countries are silly enough to vote in communists all foreign capital investment should be withdrawn.
Nice, clean simple and to the point video.
Can you do NU bank next. Ticker NU
Thank you for the idea. I will add it to my list.
What margins and terminal value or perpetual growth rate assumptions did you use for your valuation?
Hi, I usually use a 10% discount rate and a 2% perpetual growth rate.
I enjoy watching your videos, great analysis. When compared to the performance of the S&P 500, this company really underperforms. IMO, Rio Tinto is a much better option in this space, I enjoyed your analysis of this company too. 👍
Thank you very much. 🙏
Can you do a analysis of $STLA next please? Great video!
Thank you. I will take a look at it. It maybe a very interesting idea.
research about vale brumadinho
pronounced valet not vale
Reinvesting the dividends?
It's when you get the dividend and with that money, you buy more shares of the company that paid you the dividend.
I have VALE, my question is why the next 5 years no growth?
Price of iron may go substantially down in the next few years and because it is a cyclical business it may have some tough times ahead. But if I'm too pessimistic, then the up side maybe even greater.
Iron ore may in fact decrease in value for the next few years, but why did Nickel not play a role in your analysis? You stated VALE is the largest iron AND Nickel miner in the world. How is the huge demand for Nickel not a factor in Vale’s future earnings and growth?
woops - forgot liability for tailings dam failure which is an unknown cost
Me, myself and I, all of them are buying VALE! 😅
Vale sells most of its product to China. The problem with that is Vale is located in Brazil while its biggest competitors (BHP and Rio Tinto) are in Australia. Australia is much closer to China than Brazil. Thus means that Vale has to spend more on shipping which eats into its margins.
What has the location of Vale got to do with it? Are you referring to its mines or the company location?
@@rlc2978 The majority of Vale's mines are in Brazil and South America.
Last I heard, Australia had decided to not sell to China over China’s attempt to “embargo” Australian iron over Australia’s anti-China political commitments.
What little it does sell to China is done so at inflated prices.
So Vale still has a somewhat equal footing.
This may have changed, of course, but it’s just a factor that makes an impact.
I hate the background music,,, come on be smart
At around $11 now! 🤑
Thank you for this deep dive. A few points that I found discrepancy w.r.t my analysis:
1. FCF Growth in last 10 year as per my calculation is =~15.7% 2023: $7.245 Billion, 2013 = $1.687 Billion
2. Share Buyback= ~ (-1.63%) Shares Outstanding 2023 = 4370Million; 2013 = 5153 Million.
Can you please advise what is the source of the data for your calculation? It may be possible that I'm looking at an incorrect data source.
I didn't crosscheck the rest of the analysis yet because I first wanted to be on the same page with the data source. Thank you!
Hi, I used QuickFS and possibly some data from Seeking Alpha. However, the video was created almost a year ago, so a lot may have changed since then. Thanks for watching.
where did u find data?
This was SOOO helpful! Thank you so much for this in-depth analysis! You are awesome!
Thank you. It is very nice of you. 🙏
Signigicant legal issues hanging over this company... waiting for this to be resolved.
Love it! Great analysis!
Thank you so much. 🙏
No way iron ore prices will go that low... who came up with those silly numbers?
50% drop within 8 yrs is around 7 USD per share
"Promo SM"
Very interesting video, as usual, thanks for it!
I currently have exposure to 2 Brazilian companies, and I'm considering VALE to be my third, I think Brazil's role in future economic dynamics is going to increase, so I want to have a part of it, and also I have doubts (I consider those to be founded) that iron prices will go as low as predicted.
Current price being around USD11.5/share, I think it's a great entry point, let's see what the future brings.
Thanks for sharing, and good luck 🤞
great video. subscribed.
Thank you. 😊
THANKS FROM AUSTRALIA
Thanks for watching.
Ola o governo nao tem mais participação na vale . As pessoas não tem ideia do tamanho da vale . Sem comtar o valor patrimonial que nao e corrigindo pela inflação a anos ! Grande abraço Brazilian .