I will enjoy sering the buddies that ran the test on Argentina going full joe rogan steroids in the USA from January onwards -- the great depression will seem tame after the biggest premeditated ruggpul to the world's economy's ever since that one time that in one day the bankers of london eaten up 10% of the Portuguese empire in one day and then dismantled the Portuguese empire as a whole while enjoying dividing both Europe and Africa until ...well...nowadays
Argentina is being used just as trimming up llm training model of the quanta computers at legatum and alike to better ran what's to come in the USA....l its a Cambridge analytica thing ( would Cambridge analytica exist still of course )
Argentina? Meh! I live in Uruguay. The one with it's act together. What size jacket do you wear? 38R? You're going to live forever, man! Very cool. I'm overweight. The future world is going to need this Rap Channel to guide it in the future.
Canada’s current economy would be more considered stagnating and underutilized. Which as a Canadian js pretty staggering when you consider that we have the 2nd largest country in the world of which 80% of the land is barely populated sitting on top of the 3rd largest oil reserves in the world with some of the best energy infrastructure along with it and are ranked 4th globally in natural resources with an estimated value of 34 trillion dollars. It’s like the rich kid with a gifted brain who decides to be broke and convince themselves they’re retarded.
A couple additions from an Argentine that add nuance to some of these numbers that would understandably make the video a bit rambly: 12:20 laid off gov workers. A huge problem is political parties in power handing "jobs" party members who only show up to "work" on payday. 12:30 spending on universities. We have 100% free universities even to foreigners but don't require graduates to use their education in Argentina. This leads to for example 25% of our School of medicine being Brazilians, studying for free, and then leaving. I'm not aware of any other country doing this type of charity. There're Colombian companies who even make money off of this by charging Colombian students to fly and house them in Argentina where they study for free in our free universities. Milei is trying to negotiate with the other political parties about this and they're reluctant, so even minimal funding is tough to approve. Partly, this is because many students are Peronists and the Peronists are trying to rile them up before the next elections. 13:20 reducing investment in infrastructure programs. This is our politicians' most efficient method to ransack the country. E.g. Step 1: Pass funding to build a highway. Step 2: Give the contract to a "testaferro" (3rd party who's actually in business with you). Step 3: Over charge by 200%+. Step 4: Build 5% of the original contract. Step 5: Divide the remaining between you two (minus any bribes you had to pay on the way). Step 6: Make a layover in the Caymans when you're flying to China to meet with Xi...... Fun fact, this all literally happened. Several times. With highways, hospitals, a hotel in El Calafate, a hydroelectric dam, etc. 13:40 lack of alternatives. Macri tried to make reforms the "nice" way and the rest of the parties, including non-peronists like the UCR and even some who joined his party put as many roadblocks as possible to make any meaningful changes 14:00 few union strikes. Because normally, unions are coerced to strike by leaders with connections to the peronists. (That's also why there're few strikes even in the worst Peronist governments, like Alberto Fernandez's). One of Milei's first measures was to charge strike organizers for the damages caused by their strikes. This makes the payoff not worth the cost. 14:40 for anyone curious how we could've even had negative foreign reserves when Milei took over is because his opponent in the election was the previous administration's Minister of Economy and he used the country as his personal electoral bank account. 15:00 this tax amnesty is done at least once a decade lmao. 17:00 about the import schemes. A bunch of these are just testaferros importing tech/clothes from china, assembling it in Argentina, labling it "made in Argentina" and selling for an exorbitant price as they have no competitors, and then of course sharing the profits with their political business partners 18:10 We have a huge and growing problem with cartels moving south. E.g. There're growing turf ware in Rosario (the inland port city in the agricultural basin, similar to how Chicago fits into the midwest with it's port in the Mississippi). Also we have an issue of not even having serviceable fighter jets to give out airforce pilots enough flight ours. 19:10 dolarizing. It was most likely a political prop to hit politicians who have financed deficits by printing, but there is still talk about dolarizing. But the fact remains that the main economic issue in Argentina is politicians not caring about financing a deficit by printing. And the only way to permanently stop that is to destroy the money printer. Which ideally is a good monetary policy tool. It's a catch-22. 19:30 devaluing the peso. While he officially devalued it, it had already lost it's value and was trading at the real value in the black market. Which in Argentina is surprisingly standardized and accessible. We even have websites to consult what the real value of the "dolar blue" exchange rate is and places to exchange it (called arbolitos) are everywhere. Lastly, while I appreciate Patrick talking about Argentina and Milei and the changes we're trying to make, there's an insulting lack of Argentine rap in this video. How could you miss the great L-Egante butchering the national anthem on live tv?!
"While Trump worked his way up from serving fries at McDonalds just a month ago to the highest office in the United States..." This statement is priceless🤣 It's official: Patrick Boyle, you're a trip😻🥰😂
As the great Argentinian writer Jorge Luis Borges said: “Peronist are not right wing or left wing, they are just incorrigible”. (Needless to say it sounds far better in Spanish xD)
Fuel subsidies are almost always a mistake, but I would argue that it was actually the landed elite of the late 19th and early 20th century that undermined Argentina's economy. They resisted large scale industrialization and dominated politics, turning the state into one strictly reliant on export led growth in commodities. When that stopped being a feasible economic strategy, they had no answers. They hadn't allowed really stable institutions to develop and so the populists turned to the dictator. Since then, the Argentine governments have been more interested in appealing to political blocks by giving them "rents" of various kinds than actually developing the country. Disregard for the rule of law and political favoritism are always ruinous to societies in the long term.
Congratulations. You just summarized Latin America. Brazil is even worse. Populism in Latin America is a mix of nationalism , militarism and religion. You can call it Tropical Fascism
Large bits of the EU responded to the escalation in Ukraine with various fuel subsidies, as a large chunk of Russian production became politically sensitive.
The tragedy of politics is that many reforms take a long time to take full effect so when someone changes a policy it starts out being painful so the sitting president or pm is blamed for it but after a couple of years the benefit starts showing up which the next president or pm is credited for, unjustly.
From a pro-neoliberalism point of view. He didn't touch on the suffering of ppl. Saying: "20% less in education and healthcare" is one thing, but when you look at what is happening with real ppl, its another picture. I'm not saying he is wrong, his points are probably all true, but the lens you use to see the numbers are just as important as the numbers themselves.
@@GlennRRB He does mention the suffering, he described how trying to reduce the suffering through welfare and free education that couldn't be afforded is what caused the economic crisis in the first place. Trying to artificially reduce the suffering is what killed Argentina.
@@GlennRRB it's hard to touch on the social cost of the reform because the real magnitude of the impact is seen 5 to 10 years in the future. For example if you cut education, nothing changes on the short term, the real impact is seen when you have less people getting a degree 5 to 6 years down the road.
Also, getting rid of that law would significantly effect local economies whose businesses were built on designing and making horse hats; a product not made or sold anywhere else in the world.
Patrick's ability to never blink never ceases to amaze me. Having watched many of his videos and never seen him blink the only conclusion we can arrive at it he must be either a robot or alien. Please leave you vote either robot or alien in this videos comments
He has a face that you expect to be associated with infamy. Some sort of mad hitman or acid bath murderer, but hey we can all make amends. Seriously though he is real interesting to listen to.
Visited Argentina in May-June 2024 and loved it. In Cordoba talked with locals and they said they voted for Milei because they were tired of goverment spending,bureaucracy,subsidies,they wanted his drastic measures,were ready for worse personal finances. Was a bummer though when I could't change Argentinian pesos in Peru to local currency.
I actually felt relief when I saw he had only been in power for a year, it feels like AT LEAST 2 years ago he came into power. Makes me feel like time is passing more slowly than usual, maybe beacuse so many things are happening around the world.
Interesting, great breakdown! I can recall chatter about Argentina's problems even as a kid, so it's not too surprising the level of disruption a turnaround might require.
Spent a month in Patagonia; paved roads in Chile,gravel roads in Argentina. The people in Argentina have been traumatized, it will take a generation to straighten things out.
I live in argentina. I'm rich and American. I can care less about most paved roads in the region we live. It's beautiful, people are friendly and life happens slow... Stay in Chile...
@FLAC2023 It would be nice to use an ATM in Argentina and not have your card cancelled because of potential fraud or need a backpack to carry 100 euros worth of pesos.
Exactly where? Say it! Many European countries can fit inside de Argentinian Patagonia. So tell us ,where in the vast extension of Patagonia did you find gravel roads......because gravel roads are EVERYWHERE! Answer!
@@lucianoemmanuelramirez1304 and hope I can see this case to be updated on a textbook as Mr. Milei to be one of the name in human history. The world needs real changes other than the slogan from the mouth of Obama.
Great video! As an Argentinian though, i feel like i have an obligation to tell you that you should explain the black market peso value (dolar blue), because milei devalued the official value of the peso, but the real value (the price at which people can freely buy pesos) has in fact been falling! The official value of the peso when milei took office was around 360 ARS = 1 USD, the real value was 1200 ARS = 1 USD. As of the moment when I am writing this comment the official value is around 1060 ARS = 1 USD (the central bank devalues 2% per month, that is what is known as the "floor" of inflation), and the real value is 1100 ARS = 1 USD. This is in my opinion one of milei's greatest achievements! And the main reason this is happening is because of the govt fiscal surplus (argentina is not printing money since july 2024) and trust in the government. They also fixed (or at least they made it more transparent) argentinas central banks balance sheet, since they managed to pass the national debt to the treasury (where it always should have been, but previous governments used to ""hide"" national debt as the central bank debt). I know it may be really specific but i truly do think this explanation is necessary to understand the full context of how hard Milei's ministers have worked this year!
El Tesoro tiene más interés para los títulos de deuda que el Central (5% vs 3%). No se dejaron de imprimir pesos, sino todo lo contrario, lo que pasa es que ahora está bueno tener pesos si hacés carry. Esto estalla cuando colapse la burbuja porque se retiró un gran acarreador (en el 2019 fue Goldman Sachs) o saquen el cepo, lo que ocurra primero.
@@franco1072 Los 4 años de Milei no alcanzan para sacar el cepo entonces, la deuda externa es impagable, ni hablemos de los bopreales de los importadores que dejó Massa. Mucho liberalismo pero cuando llega la hora de ponerse en frente del Estado, todos son comunistas.
@@Yefen hola! No e tiendo exactamente que queres decir. La tasa de interes depende de la tanda. Considerando que las LELIQ del bcra se emitian cuando la tasa estaba 130%, su tea mensual venia siendo de un 7.3% aprox. Las LECAP tienen en promedio una tea mensual de 4%. Pero no estoy seguro de si es eso a lo que te referís! En cuanto a lo otro no veo realmente un peligro de corrida como 2019, que macri tuvo que volver a meter el cepo. La base monetaria en terminos reales esta fija desde mitad de año
I'm from Argentina and I want to say that it is a very good analysis! I am surprised that people of other countries are very interested in ours lol. I want to add that the main problem of the government in this point is currency appreciate which makes industry and farming less competitive. Investors are so exciting about Argentina that Milei fears that if he takes out exchange controls, the amouth of foreign currency that would enter would appreciate ever more the peso and would make the problem worse. (Argentina products are very expensive now). He wants to be pragmatic and give time to economy to adapt to the new system. If he going very fast the unemployment would be a very serious problem. PD: My English is not the best haha. Exxume me for that.
As a Canadian, I'm pretty interested because Canada and Argentina are (or were) very similar. Resource wealthy, but also ruined by Socialist ideology and everyone in the system trying to push their own self-interests. Milei turning things around would support people demanding the same reform in Canada. Honestly, it probably won't work because of Justin Trudeau's demographic putsch over the last 10 years and the fermenting of diversity conflict through out Canadian society. Justin did succeed in making Canada "post-national" which means that Canada is not able to come together and sacrifice to make a better future. Seems like every group under the sun wants "Reparations" in some form or another. They certainly won't want to give up any government money they are getting now. Canada, like the UK, and Europe is just a corpse where the globalist hyenas want to pick over the corpse. I hope Argentina, and the other South American countries learn from our mistakes and don't be fooled by the pie-in-the-sky globalists. For us, it's probably too late.
GDP in argentina today is $12.000 while it was $5000 in 1930 in constant value dollars (adjusted for inflation). Argentina today is wealthier than it was in its fabled golden era.
@@kpg1973 You wrote the same comment below (twice), which was heavily challenged by others (yours had 2 likes, the challenging ones had 17,5, and various other numbers higher than yours, not that i want to base accuracy on number of likes), and now you proceeded to write it here. What's your agenda? I'm interested in knowing the truth, but haven't heard good things. A lot of people called your comment misguided. Just wondering why you insist on writing the same thing over and over. Whenever I see that, its usually people trying to astroturf the comment section. Now it seems you've re written the comment underneath a comment with a higher number of likes (also a first time commenter, so I'm uncertain of their knowledge as it pertains to economics) making it more likely to attract attention, so I'm just wondering why you're so adamant.
@@theaccountant5846 My agenda is debunking the myth that argentina has had any economic decline. The alleged decline is only relative compared to other countries that got richer but were poor in the 1930s, such as many western european countries, japan and china. Argentina did not become poor just because other countries stopped being poor. Just go check the actual economic statistics, argentina has had steady economic growth over the 20th century, just not as much as countries that are wealthier today, like China.
@@kpg1973 I have checked the stats, which is why I'm curious why you are so adamant. According to the stats, unemployment has been pushed up from 3% to 8%, as of august inflation had fallen 4.2% but annual inflation still topped 270%, poverty rate jumped from 42% to 53%, and the peso was devalued by 54% as soon as he took office. Nowhere was it indicated that these stats were compared to other countries. I'm just using statistics, though granted I haven't completed a large amount of research. It just seems odd that statistics indicate poverty is increasing, and you claim everything is fine. Perhaps you were better off than most people initially, which is why it didn't affect you. From what I've heard, calls to restart frozen public schools and boost pensions and wages are growing louder, so that would mean people are unhappy.
I need my eyes tested. I saw Sam Bankman Fried..."it's already been a year?" As to why my brain conveniently ignored Javiers name is beyond me. This was fine in any case...😂
Im so happy that people outside the spanish language are starting to talk about whats happening here And Im even MORE glad that people outside my country are starting to use the word Peronism and Kirchnerism as a bad related thing
Cosita mas linda cree que entiende el mundo, Milei esta destruyendo aun mas tu pais, llevar una nacion no es jugar a la bolsa, el peso esta sobrevalorado y es una burbuja que va a reventar pronto
😮As a Chilean I truly would like our neighbors get their shit together, it would be great for all the continent. Many of the policies Milei wants to impose are similar to have we have done for decades, like signing free trade agreements (we have a lot of those), create a system of concession and APP for infraestructure contracts (like our very succesful one), freeing the currency, etc. I actually find it funny when people say Chile should do what Milei is doing, like we aren't already in a better position in many things...the only thing that's kind of reasonable for us is to cut red tape for big projects, which is kind of getting out of control, but we're trying to fix. But you only need to go to any shopping mall in Santiago to see the huge amounts of Argentinians shopping for all sorts of things, like clothing and homeware, since they're so much cheaper for them here.
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While the juntas were not helping, let's nor forget the Panama Canal. Argentina had one of the most important ports in the world, attached to land that was very good at growing meat. East Asia had trouble competing just due to transit time and spoilage. The canal changed most of that, and they failed to really industrialize, switching to higher value goods. After they lost that window, recovery quickly became unlikely
AFAIK East Asia countries have never been a significant exporters of meat. Australia and New Zealand perhaps. And as they've developed they've now become significant importers.
Thank you so much for doing this one! When watching your last vodeo I thought of asking you to have a look at Argentina but was a bit shy. Thanks again👍
"Argentina is a soap opera" is a phrase that I've heard used to describe the argentinian economy. I presume that they meant with regard to the ups and downs that it seems to teeter between.
Margret Thatcher is not a good comparison for free market propopants as she didn't actually do away with regulations and made a few herself. President Calvin Coolidge is a better comparison.
@Helperbot-2000 Argentina was previously running under the "have the government do and manage everything" plan that you seem to support. This very video describes how that worked out for them in the past (answer: very poorly)
@@roymarshall_ I think he's referring to the fact that a lot of the UK's most pressing problems are a direct consequence of Thatcherism - or at least how it was continued by subsequent governments. Privatisations without enforced regulations being a big obvious one
@chrisdickens4268 Except that to my knowledge, privatization _per se_ was not the issue, it was how they went about it. Basically transferring certain utilities to one single company, instead of multiple companies which would then be forced to compete for price and quality. You cannot just expect net positive results when transferring title from one aggressive monopoly (the state) to another.
@@roymarshall_ it also describes how argentna's inflation increased when deregulation and privatization happened, the things that have always been proven to happen
I am currently in Buenos Aires and the prices here are incredibly high. Groceries here cost more than in most of Europe and comparable if not more for most stuff with US prices. Bread costs $4, milk $2/L for example - much more than what I pay in the UK or Poland. Peso is artificially too strong atm as Miley is trying to artificially peg it to the dollar. A lot of people in Argentina are suffering right now but still support the reforms , simply because nothing else has worked in the past.
I'm from Argentina too, and peg to the dollar is something completely different than what is happening, there was a peg to the dollar with the 1 peso = 1 dollar, today the relationship of pesos and dollars constantly change (like all these years).
Argentine's know they have to work hard to dig themselves out of the hole they got themselves into. They don't mind doing the work as long as there's light at the end of the tunnel
Salaries are higher now. You should walk more and find better prices. Good quality Meat 8 dollars a Kg, you can eat 3 times. Banana kg 1.2 dollars, Apples kg 1.5 dollars, Wine 5 dollars, Nice place to rent in a beatiful neighbourhood only 500 dollars per month. It's a process. Prices are looking their place. Some things are expensive, others cheap It's actually the best place to live right now and it is packed with U.S citizens.
They were about to rot, it was just a clearance sale. I guess having 40 year old jets to go against an imaginary enemy is more important than feeding his country 😂😂😂
@@felixrondon8487 more like a quid quo pro arrangement, they buy planes from a country and then they have some leverage for other deals in the future. That's the way it goes.
11:00 this is a blatant misrepresentation. Milei cut the peso by 50%, but he merely adopted the black market rate of the true value of the peso. You should know that the government rate of the peso is in fact a big lie, proven by the fact that nobody is willing to sell $$$ for that rate. Undoing the government's lie, is not a malicious act but necessary to heal the economy.
What???? If the unofficial exchange (the one people trade freely, without gov intervention) is almost the same now to the official exchange....what garbage are you talking about??
@@retrictumrectus1010 not sure if it is your IQ or maybe your poor command of the English language....but what RedTTHayo said is incorrect, Milei did not adopt the black market rate....the other way around, the black market rate (influenced freely by the people trading in that market) moved closer and closer to the rate Milei adopted....there was a 50% gap last July and now it is less than 10% and it was 0% recently....that is an incredible achievement and proof that his program is working.....in the previous administration the gap was 300%!!! No one believed in the crooks that were running the country before!!!
If the government is able to bring wages up and in line with reality, drop tariffs/taxes on imported and digital goods and manages to get the mercosur/EU deal and a deal with the US sorted I can see good things coming out of this. Otherwise in 3 years it's all going to swing back the other way
This is actually a very good video. Very neutral. Things have improved a little bit more since the video data. Still things are rough, but improving every day.
note, Peron worked both sides not just "the left", he learned it in the 1920's as a militar atache while Mussolini was on the rise (and who was a Trotskyst in his youth). Another detail he exiles himself in a Spain ruled by the dictatorship of Franco...
He really knew how to be on any side without being called as either. To this day peronists can't or won't risking defining themselves politically. Just ask if Thai are left or right... neither... centrist... no... peronist
I have an Argentinian friend who has had nothing but praise for what Milei is doing. He says he's saved more money in the last year than he did in almost a decade of the previous governments.
@@novinceinhosic3531 not true, purchasing power is rising, plus currency is appreciating so wages measured in USD have almost trebled even if costs also grew a lot.
@@novinceinhosic3531 Real wages are already rising since July. You need to wait a couple of months to see the oficial stats of the second semester. What happened in the first semester is all the damage carried from the last government, which left us with the worst economic situation of all our history. Employment was sustained with public jobs and public construction.
Patrick is misinformed on this point, and I noted it above....Argentina's exports will boom in 2025 and beyond.....with Milei incentives for investments....the highly rich export oriented sectors of energy, mining and agro business are starting to boom.....there will be a huge increase in exports in the next years...
@@persperspersp2866not that person but I will say Argentina has several rare earth elements only found in a few places like China. Since China this year restricted sale to the US of these elements Argentina is one of the only places they are found. Probably one of the reasons trump is eager for a trade deal as the US needs those elements for everything from computer chips to weapons development. As such it should be a good year for Argentina trade wise.
Why. He comes with the same.mindset of the people that have ruined the economy. Leftist that always want immediate gains and can't understand short term hardship for long term gain. If anything makes a 4 go to a 3 or 2 it's immediately bad. No matter what the purpose for the future is . Money printer go burrr that's him
@@SusCalvin No other group is as fixated on monetarist inflation as libertarians or hates it more. Every other party in the face of inflation will throw up their hands and say "the supply chain crisis is complicated" and then implement a bunch of half measures which feel like more of the same. Libertarians point their fingers squarely at central banks and offer a convenient and sometimes correct scapegoat.
@@archstanton3931 This solution would still have a central bank in place, the US fed. The EU nations in the Euro sphere are also bound to a single monetary policy. It's the reason I get nervous about direct political control of things like public service media, central banks etc. The central bank is sometimes tasked with doing things that hurt the voters.
@@archstanton3931 I view a small fragment of industry logistics chains at work and they are bonkers. End consumers sometimes get weird illusions that we are flexible and efficient.
Do you have any sources? Some of the things you say are either yet to happen (Meaning they probably will but are not in effect right now), or plain untrue. For example, according to the INDEC (The official national index) rent prices have skyrocketted since he took office, yet you claimed a whopping 50% reduction. Since you don't cite any sources I have no way of verifying it.
Unfortunately, you need someone with the authority and power to remove stifling laws and Milei has neither the time nor the full range of knowledge to do it all himself. Also, concentrating that much power in one person’s hands is… unwise, as history has shown repeatedly.
If the situation is messed up enough, it can make sense to have a Ministry of Cleaning Up The Mess. Once the mess is cleaned up, you can get rid of this ministry.
It’s paradoxical but not contradicting. You need an organized body that deletes all bodies and then deletes or reduces itself Vivek and Elon did not miss the irony. They committed to dissolving themselves within 6 months or whatever time limit was set
I always want to see what happens when America First encounters Argentina First, UK First, Belgium First etc. Is this supposed to be a global brotherhood outside the EU.
@@davianoinglesias5030They won't because it's not in their national interest stupid. The people arguing for support of wars right now in the US are the globalists who think it's our job to police the world.
@@fanemanelistu9235 The Great Powers that made up the Concert of Europe have this very practical sense of power balance. They have a few basic agreements, that there can't be another great continental war. The whole system of conferences and brokering serves partly to avoid that. You can have a limited war, swap a few territories, cut up China or Poland if necessary. The people who wrote national epics and art are not invited to those conferences.
I think another extremely short sighted analysis. "Number goes up" might show as an improvement in the short term, but what do you imagine that the long term impacts of not investing in infrastructure & education will be, both financially and socially? There might be a bright "dawn" ahead for some but likely at the expense of the many - for example: every economy exploited by captial currently. A final ideological complaint. Why is a countries success only ever seen as financial, rather than the genral well being of its citizens. Not having fancy stuff might seem like an imposition when you have a guaranteed roof over your head, healthcare and reasonably priced food
Someone still needs to pay for that roof and that food and it is clear that the Argentinian government couldn't. 211% inflation is unsustainable. A government that can't take care of its finances is in no position to take care of its citizens.
Education funding has not been destroyed as opponents say, yes he has not given an increase Equal to inflation, but Universities spent with no control. No haudit has been done in 16+years... I worked for 15 as a University Admin oficial, I saw such stuff... Bordering onncriminal... And there has been criminal stuff done... Only Universities are funding by nationale governement, schools are by provinces... And that was not doing good lately either... The level of education has been destroyed in the last 2 decades
These policies are just a transfer of wealth from the poor to the wealthy,Milei is the Reagan of Argentina and the result will be a wiping out of the middle class
This criticism is in itself short sighted. Borrowing money you can't pay back, defaulting on that debt, and then doing to the same thing over and over is not a path to "investing in infrastructure and education". It's a dead end to poverty. It becomes a huge drag on the economy, the people, and ruins any future prospects of things getting better. It's the nation state equivalent of a person financing their lifestyle with credit card loans and then declaring bankruptcy every time they can't pay it back, and then complaining they can't live the way they want to without loans. Peak short-sightedness. Create a regulatory environment that promotes growth and then right-size the state for your economy to stabilize finances. As the economy grows, you can offer better services and invest in bigger infrastructure projects, facilitating even more growth.
Argentina was a good economy with most people living in poverty. Thats why there were so much political instability.
10 дней назад
Is it a "good economy" if it doesn't benefit the people? This is what I don't get in economic analysis like this one: like Trump, Milei is not at all interested in the people. The butchering that is being done to institutions in Argentina as well as the US will destroy so much more than any money that the rich divide among themselves can repay.
Milei is a rare politician who has a large mandate to make actual meaningful changes, with the public understanding that the situation is so dire that it will require measures that are going to make a bunch of things worse in the short term to fix them in the long run.
And likely will be end sacrificed to the altar of angry mobs screaming for his blood. Notice that most of the damage he is causing is not "short term" things like that pension money that he "borrowed" is is gone for good and won't come back, ever. Notice also that the way he is balancing the finances is directly impacting economic growth.. which is fine as long as it is offset by further investment, something is not clear will happen anytime soon. That's a delicate balance game that I'm not sure he has the brain or will to play and the effects, either positive or negative, will take a few years to show. The way I see it, the people are going to tolerate him as long as they see hope for betterment... which is by definition a short term effect. Once the actual effects of his policies emerge people will judge him, and I have the feeling that as soon as he stumbles, he will fall, badly.
looks more like he is completely selling the people to foreign interests in the long run but that they will only recognize in a few years. Been there, done that. Argentina isnt the first country to get ruined by foreign capital only for libertarians to come in and sell the shards to the guys who broke it in the first place
56% approval rating, I wouldn't call that public understanding. But yeah, argentines are fucked for the short term. For the long term we will have to wait.
I really enjoyed this unbiased look at his tenure. I'm a progressive but I'm not afraid to look at ideas I don't agree with. I'm smart enough to know I don't know everything.
I wouldn't necessarily say this is an unbiased look. It's definitely viewed through a Neoliberal lens. What was barely touched upon is just how hard this is hitting normal Argentinians. I don't know if there's any other solution to the problem let me make that clear, but it's caused a massive increase in poverty and suffering for people who were already struggling.
@@MrManBuzz I'm also missing the obvious long-term consequences. It is trivially easy to cut government spending. It is not easy to do so while still investing in infrastructure, education, and healthcare and many other things that are vital for a healthy economy. To be fair, it is impossible to say what the effects will be, but just cutting spending is not a big achievement.
There is one thing missing. The Vaca Muerta oil and gas reserves. This should skyrocket the exports and give Argentina the dollars it needs to fill the central bank with new international reserves. Acording to some economists Milei need a bridge between now and when this is going to start happening in 2027.
Almost got robbed in Argentina by "fake taxi drivers" operating at the Airport --> BE AWARE OF SCAMS!!! It might cost your life. I hope this post saves lives.
Educational spending discussions are always so braindead. People act like more spending = more educated people, yet in reality youll see data like how Chicago schools DOUBLED their school spending and student grades continued to decline even faster.
@@thewingedringer What does that even mean here? like are you disagreeing with the concept or are you being sarcastic saying I personally wouldn't know?
There were no middle class one century ago in Argentina. To have a high GDP rate doesn't necessarily mean wealth is well distributed. Half of what you say is half-truths told by media that supports right-wing politicians.
Correct. Ignorant myth comparing an agrarian Argentina of less than 5 million population and extremely concentrated ownership and income reliant almost entirely on exports of meat and grain mainly within the British Empire to circumstances by 1940s with triple the population, fascists having been in charge during the 1930s, and a completely different economic mix. Also, "GDP" was not defined before 1930s and before 1950s in most countries is a retrospective and extremely unreliable estimate.
And having won 10 of the 14 ellections since back in the day, and being that Macri was the only non-peronist to finish His mandate, Argentina has been going downwards since Peronismo started to show it's face here. Protectionism has only allowed alteady powerful People to continue being powerful... Wealth redistribution has been a lie all this years
There were no middle class one century ago in Argentina, and everywhere else my friend, that is what the world was like before WWI and WWII.....do your homework.
@@gabygonza What you said is stupid, that is it. Argentina attracted millions of people from all over the world who left their far away homelands to have a better life in Argentina....and for the most part, they prospered handsomely....that is why immigrants kept coming from the 1880s throughout the 1930s....so the wealth concentration point to discredit how successful Argentina was at that time when the economy was open, pro capitalist and foreign trade (like Milei wants to bring back) is an ignorant point of view...because the country was hugely successful at the time....and second only to the USA for the number of immigrants received at that time.....of course things went from bad to worse when the country started its protectionist, interventionist, anti trade, and anti capitalist drive, hugely impacting businesses economic freedoms.....starting with Irigoyen and made much worse with Peron and his political movement that sunk the country to the ground to the embarrassing lows left by the last administration who left the country in complete devastation in Dec 2023..
18:16 Argentina is the seventh biggest country in the world. Was almost ten years now without a fleet of supersonic airplanes. The air force base in Tandil that is supposed to assist the capital city of Buenos Aires (500km of distance) was no longer able to give an inmidiate responde in case of conflict. Places like the triple border with Paraguay and Brazil and many sensitive places of our air space were completely undefended.
@@justaguyontheinternet6779 Lol no, the military is the most important thing for a free and sovereign country. It's the way to show the world and investment that u cand defend them against any agression or thread available. Milei is doing GREAT with it, the Argentine Military needs an deserves much better, we, the people that voted for him, agree with it and a lot of people voted for him because of that only.
Wow. I'm living here in Argentina and I know rent supply has not tripled and rent rates have most certainly not come down but increased substantially. The cost of everything has gone up. Imported goods have not come down in price. Capital controls on foreign investments is a very serious problem for Argentina and no reform will truly work until that is fixed. I've wondered if Macri's paying the debt that Argentina defaulted on in 2001 is the thing that pushed Argentina's economy off a cliff again. Milei blames the Peronists entirely, and there is a lot of blame there, but Macri and now Milei are piling on more problems.
In the first decades of the 20th century, Argentina was an agricultural exporting country with an oligarchy that owned commodities. There were no rights established for the working class. Perón created free universities, an 8-hour workday, paid vacations, women's suffrage, a science ministry, and legality to join unions. I'm just saying that there should be a form of government that allows for fiscal balance in the macroeconomy but that benefits the people instead of a tiny elite. Sugerencias
Argentina's GDP per capita was $5000 (adjusted for inflation) in 1930, it is $12.000 today. Critics will call a 140% economic growth (per capita) a crisis and an economic contraction.
The unions didn't exist in the world either. Maybe countries were able to generate working protections without destroying the companies that employ such workers. Even USA.
Please don't export the fascist propaganda of Argentinian textbooks to the english language. That discourse is tired and old. Thanks to Milei we are recovering our history and understanding the true legacy of Fascism in Argentina as opposed to the unrelenting success of Liberalism in the 19th century.
Nahh, you got all the information wrong, look at real history and you will find that Peron did not create any of that really, simply stole the credit. Dont let these people confuse you with false narratives that have nothing to do with reality. Do your own research. I used to believe the same falsehood until I checked real, historic facts.
GDP and government spending does affect how well the average citizen is doing. Inflation and IMF loans used to pay for the lavish government spending reflects instability which means investors are put off and the economy just gets worse and worse, not to mention the effects of inflation and high government debt on the average citizen. It's unsustainable and irresponsible. The books need to be balanced first and foremost.
Great breakdown. It’s great to see what Milei has promised is actually starting to work and that his approval rating is still high. His plans just take a long time and it will get worse before it gets better, if he doesn’t get re-elected then the chance exists that everything he tried to do will just be reversed, but so far it’s looking good.
It’s not. More than 53% of Argentina has plunged into poverty. Milei had Musk push his bs propaganda the other day on X but in reality day to day people are struggling. They are claiming they’ve settled the debt but it’s bs. They need to push the narrative that their methods are working but people know what’s going on. They’re waiting for the country to collapse to bring in a new form of government.
Thats the thing with austerity at first it does improve things, long term it always fails. You have to invest to build a countries economy and keep it flowing
Peronism was not "left-wing" by any means! How come you get that so very wrong? Peron was proponent of the so-called "third way" ("Nor yankees, nor marxist") certainly inspired by the Fascist Italy. Peron entered politics by joining the "hard-line conservative" coup of 1930 as a young oficial and kept hiking up the power ladder, while the military kept on becoming a party of its own, torn by the pull between traditional ties to Britain, the enduring interest of the US in replacing the latter, and the sound success of the hard-core right-wing in Europe (Fascist, Nazis, Falangists, etc.) All of this trying hard to impede any kind of turn of the country to the Left, in Red Scare times. Peron rose thanks a populist workers movement with a strong nationalist, Christian, European spirit, based in the ideas of "social justice" and the promise of industrial development against the classic landowner agro oligarchy tied to Britain (that made fortunes until falling to pieces around 1920). Nationalization and overall state controlled planned economy was central to his views. In pollitical terms peronism concieved society as a play of "organizations" and forces (workers, trade, industrial unions, the military, church, etc.) cuasi-integrated into the State with Peron leadership on top. Eventually as happened all over the world, Peron was ousted in the name of liberalism.
Argentina's supposed "Golden Age" or "Gilded Era" existed only in terms of enrichment of a very few thanks to a colonial scheme of raw material exports and foreign "investment" in times of expansion and competition of the European societies, particularly from the turn of the century to the inter wars period. When that started to crack (here and all over the world), the growing population started placing pressure for income distribution. Left-wing movements were hastily repressed, and then not even democratic "left" was acceptable for the ruling class, giving way to the 1930 military coup and the installation of a long history of authoritarian control of the society. Argentina is constitutionally a Liberal State Republic with a strong presidential style, a semicolonial society with a strong nationalist sense of self, deep catholic traditions, and populist authoritarian way of solving things... all on top of one of the richest landmasses in the world.
@Wasd3r actually as in most countries in the world today, as well as in the past, independently of its pollitical discourse. Even Milei's Argentina is a state controlled economy, so far... as is Biden's US, and Trump's US will be. In any case, the discussion is about how much control a given State has... or where it has control and where hasn't. States that loose control of their economies are not much of a State anymore. State ownership of means of production is a whole different discussion.
What makes left or right is more of the discourse on certain societal issues, particularly about how much intervention the State should have in the affairs of the commons and the lives of individuals and groups of people. The difference is on how and where to intervine, not about doing it or not. Once you sit on the throne and start stamping your seal in executive orders, you are not by any means and anarchist anymore.
It's overall a pretty good summary, except the poverty rates weren't actually 42% when Milei took office, that was a figure made up by the previous administration, since the methods used and the parameters picked for measuring it were cherry picked to show a more convenient reality. Controlled prices make it look like the basic goods are more affordable than what they really are, but when you try to buy these artificially cheap goods they are nowhere to be found. Same with healthcare and energy prices. Kirchnerism only measured stuff they controlled, so the metrics look nice.
Also, the real purchasing power of a retiree's pension was 95 USD, and one year later it's over 300, that's another classic Peronism trap, they will update your pension, but only through printing money, so the real value of that updated pension is diminished by inflation, leaving you worse off than when you started
Cutting transfers pushes provinces to handle their own budgets better instead of piling up debt and relying on constant bailouts I dont think he needs to create artifical surplus since any reduction in government spending could create a surplus after the massive waste and deficits left by decades of Peronism
@peterp7541 I agree. Argentina is a watering hole for them right now. They'll whip every bit of wealth from it and it's people and move onto the next ripe fruit.
That's how humans think in general. Workers also prefer companies that they feel they can take advantage of. Everyone does it. Anybody who says otherwise is a liar or has a different mindset.
A terminal patient will try almost anything when existing treatments have failed. What I took from this is that Argentinians were and are truly desperate, regardless of what measuring-sticks and benchmarks are applied to their circumstances. I pray they get what they are wishing for!
I mean, it's either this or keep the same system and print more non-stop with no breaks until the bubble finally pops and it all comes crashing down at ones.
@persperspersp2866 like what the majority of the candidates were for keeping things the same except promising more benefits to an already crumbling economy
if there are no external or govt investments, argentina will stagnate after the schock therapy just like eastern europe. if argentina is supposed to be a role model for latin america, they will just like chile get investments from the west. if not they will become like most other nations that have stable but insignificant growth.
@@Jack-4v but the rest of the world should not be tricked by american geopolitical moves as a success of the american system. take a look at haiti, dominican republic. taiwan, s. korea, singapore, israel are all rich because of their position to natural resources, china and russia.
@@TheDynamicmarketwhat an insane comment. You picked all these small countries that have very little natural resources (except South Korea). Those countries are rich because they embraced capitalism. Taiwan and Israel are tech powerhouses. Singapore is an international trade powerhouse.
I don't understand how removing rent controls could possibly result in rent coming *down*. I understand supply increasing if prices are allowed to float above the cap, which would bring down the *undistorted* market price from what it was before, but I don't see how it could possibly drop below the previous price cap. In other words, if a would-be landlord wasn't willing to rent their space out at the controlled prices, why would they be willing to do so at a market price that was even lower?
Simple. Rent control restricts supply. Removing it increases supply, putting a downward pressure on rent prices. Supply and demand. 50% more available rentals. The landlords have to charge market prices. NY, San Francisco and Santa Monica all have rent control and the highest rents in the country.
@@duaneaikins4621LOL what an absolute garbage argument San Francisco and New York are the most wealthy areas in the United States that’s why the rent is high not cause of rent control you absolutely buffoon
You've a point. Milei has only eliminated the crowding out effects of government spending and subsidies. But if his congress does not allow him to reform the regulations that make it expensive to put up and operate a business, he will not be able to grow jobs and the economy.
the other posters absolutely have the direction of causation backwards; removing rent controls doesn't result in rent coming down (the effect wouldn't be so immediate anyway) but rather other factors alongside that can do so, such as loosening regulations on residential construction or the like
I claim no expertise, but isn't much of Milei's programme predicated on a free trade environment where Argentina can export freely, particularly to the USA, and export it's way to a healthy economy? If so are Pres Trump's tariffs going to be an issue.
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I will enjoy sering the buddies that ran the test on Argentina going full joe rogan steroids in the USA from January onwards -- the great depression will seem tame after the biggest premeditated ruggpul to the world's economy's ever since that one time that in one day the bankers of london eaten up 10% of the Portuguese empire in one day and then dismantled the Portuguese empire as a whole while enjoying dividing both Europe and Africa until ...well...nowadays
Argentina is being used just as trimming up llm training model of the quanta computers at legatum and alike to better ran what's to come in the USA....l its a Cambridge analytica thing ( would Cambridge analytica exist still of course )
Argentina? Meh! I live in Uruguay. The one with it's act together.
What size jacket do you wear? 38R?
You're going to live forever, man! Very cool. I'm overweight.
The future world is going to need this Rap Channel to guide it in the future.
Get partner with Keeps it would make for a good bit
😢 7Moley treated issues rightfuly. Ke
"Argentina is the only country to go from developed to developing."
*Canada begins to sweat nervously*
Trueduo wants to prove you wrong
Oh pish posh
How about the West in general?
@@Pltr03 he's probably not as bad as you're thinking
Canada’s current economy would be more considered stagnating and underutilized. Which as a Canadian js pretty staggering when you consider that we have the 2nd largest country in the world of which 80% of the land is barely populated sitting on top of the 3rd largest oil reserves in the world with some of the best energy infrastructure along with it and are ranked 4th globally in natural resources with an estimated value of 34 trillion dollars.
It’s like the rich kid with a gifted brain who decides to be broke and convince themselves they’re retarded.
People who don't give horses hats on sunny days are monsters
i don't really know what that means but I love animals and it seems like a nice comment
ahhh 3:07, now i get it
@@HankyBeagledo you just read the comments before watching the video
@ lol yea, sometimes
I forgot to one time and was threatened numerous times with the death penalty. I had to escape and start a new life
and sun glasses
A couple additions from an Argentine that add nuance to some of these numbers that would understandably make the video a bit rambly:
12:20 laid off gov workers. A huge problem is political parties in power handing "jobs" party members who only show up to "work" on payday.
12:30 spending on universities. We have 100% free universities even to foreigners but don't require graduates to use their education in Argentina. This leads to for example 25% of our School of medicine being Brazilians, studying for free, and then leaving. I'm not aware of any other country doing this type of charity. There're Colombian companies who even make money off of this by charging Colombian students to fly and house them in Argentina where they study for free in our free universities. Milei is trying to negotiate with the other political parties about this and they're reluctant, so even minimal funding is tough to approve. Partly, this is because many students are Peronists and the Peronists are trying to rile them up before the next elections.
13:20 reducing investment in infrastructure programs. This is our politicians' most efficient method to ransack the country. E.g. Step 1: Pass funding to build a highway. Step 2: Give the contract to a "testaferro" (3rd party who's actually in business with you). Step 3: Over charge by 200%+. Step 4: Build 5% of the original contract. Step 5: Divide the remaining between you two (minus any bribes you had to pay on the way). Step 6: Make a layover in the Caymans when you're flying to China to meet with Xi...... Fun fact, this all literally happened. Several times. With highways, hospitals, a hotel in El Calafate, a hydroelectric dam, etc.
13:40 lack of alternatives. Macri tried to make reforms the "nice" way and the rest of the parties, including non-peronists like the UCR and even some who joined his party put as many roadblocks as possible to make any meaningful changes
14:00 few union strikes. Because normally, unions are coerced to strike by leaders with connections to the peronists. (That's also why there're few strikes even in the worst Peronist governments, like Alberto Fernandez's). One of Milei's first measures was to charge strike organizers for the damages caused by their strikes. This makes the payoff not worth the cost.
14:40 for anyone curious how we could've even had negative foreign reserves when Milei took over is because his opponent in the election was the previous administration's Minister of Economy and he used the country as his personal electoral bank account.
15:00 this tax amnesty is done at least once a decade lmao.
17:00 about the import schemes. A bunch of these are just testaferros importing tech/clothes from china, assembling it in Argentina, labling it "made in Argentina" and selling for an exorbitant price as they have no competitors, and then of course sharing the profits with their political business partners
18:10 We have a huge and growing problem with cartels moving south. E.g. There're growing turf ware in Rosario (the inland port city in the agricultural basin, similar to how Chicago fits into the midwest with it's port in the Mississippi). Also we have an issue of not even having serviceable fighter jets to give out airforce pilots enough flight ours.
19:10 dolarizing. It was most likely a political prop to hit politicians who have financed deficits by printing, but there is still talk about dolarizing. But the fact remains that the main economic issue in Argentina is politicians not caring about financing a deficit by printing. And the only way to permanently stop that is to destroy the money printer. Which ideally is a good monetary policy tool. It's a catch-22.
19:30 devaluing the peso. While he officially devalued it, it had already lost it's value and was trading at the real value in the black market. Which in Argentina is surprisingly standardized and accessible. We even have websites to consult what the real value of the "dolar blue" exchange rate is and places to exchange it (called arbolitos) are everywhere.
Lastly, while I appreciate Patrick talking about Argentina and Milei and the changes we're trying to make, there's an insulting lack of Argentine rap in this video. How could you miss the great L-Egante butchering the national anthem on live tv?!
How did it affect you thus far?
Thanks for the information, these don’t make it into foreign news coverage like the short term economic numbers do.
this comment should be pinned
Amazing context, thank you so much!
And best wishes from the Netherlands, I hope your country can finally escape this century of mismanagement :')
Thank you for the information, it looks like the official and black market exchange rate are starting to converge, which is good
You know it's been a tough year for the rap industry when RUclips reviewers are forced to cover economics and politics instead
Wtf😂
😂
No need to worry, He's just researching for a new track
I don't see cal anywhere
We have to continue to support him through the hard times
"While Trump worked his way up from serving fries at McDonalds just a month ago to the highest office in the United States..."
This statement is priceless🤣
It's official: Patrick Boyle, you're a trip😻🥰😂
It's that wry British sense of humor.😂
Reminds me of the chancellor of the exchequer. From Bank teller to being in charge of the finances of a semi bankrupt country. What could go wrong 😅
It's also not the first time he's used that joke, but I'll allow it
@@markgibson7123 He's Irish
@@markgibson7123he's Irish
As the great Argentinian writer Jorge Luis Borges said: “Peronist are not right wing or left wing, they are just incorrigible”.
(Needless to say it sounds far better in Spanish xD)
Tampoco decir que Borges era un cipayo adorador de colonizadores
They are fascists
With Perón Argentina was the most industrialized south american country by that time.
@@Liam-g9i2l, yeah, because that's what they inherent and then destroyed
Peron defined his regim as nationalsocialist..
Im a bit confused..... Judean Popular Peronism or Peronist Popular Front of Judea?
Judea? Wrong continent
@@samsonsoturian6013it's a monty python reference, dw
@@wea69420 Sure, but you could have at least make it fit: "Argentinian Popular Peronism or Peronist Popular Front of Argentina"
Whose Front are you referring to: Eva or Juan? Or did they split?
The Judean People's Peronist Front. Spliiters!
300 million for 24 F-16s... seems to have gotten an amazing deal at least.
Denmark needed some new kit lol
That’s bargain lot prices
Denmark is already replacing them with F35s, and 50% off is actually pretty normal for an airplane, including the ones you and I can buy.
@hlaw2830 I can't buy any airplane.
Unless it can be folded.
Depends on if they can fly.
Fuel subsidies are almost always a mistake, but I would argue that it was actually the landed elite of the late 19th and early 20th century that undermined Argentina's economy. They resisted large scale industrialization and dominated politics, turning the state into one strictly reliant on export led growth in commodities. When that stopped being a feasible economic strategy, they had no answers. They hadn't allowed really stable institutions to develop and so the populists turned to the dictator. Since then, the Argentine governments have been more interested in appealing to political blocks by giving them "rents" of various kinds than actually developing the country. Disregard for the rule of law and political favoritism are always ruinous to societies in the long term.
Tacticusprime. Argentina is what the USA would have become if the confederacy had won the Civil War.
@@Samuel-hd3cp Very likely, but with an underclass even more poised for violent revolution.
Congratulations. You just summarized Latin America. Brazil is even worse. Populism in Latin America is a mix of nationalism , militarism and religion. You can call it Tropical Fascism
Large bits of the EU responded to the escalation in Ukraine with various fuel subsidies, as a large chunk of Russian production became politically sensitive.
Ooooh, this is a really interesting summary!
Thanks, I learned something new today :)
The tragedy of politics is that many reforms take a long time to take full effect so when someone changes a policy it starts out being painful so the sitting president or pm is blamed for it but after a couple of years the benefit starts showing up which the next president or pm is credited for, unjustly.
This is the most accurate summary of Argentine affairs I've ever heard from a foreigner. Kudos
CaspianReport did a piece on how Argentine politics of the early 1900s set the stage for the downfall.
From a pro-neoliberalism point of view. He didn't touch on the suffering of ppl. Saying: "20% less in education and healthcare" is one thing, but when you look at what is happening with real ppl, its another picture. I'm not saying he is wrong, his points are probably all true, but the lens you use to see the numbers are just as important as the numbers themselves.
@@GlennRRB He does mention the suffering, he described how trying to reduce the suffering through welfare and free education that couldn't be afforded is what caused the economic crisis in the first place. Trying to artificially reduce the suffering is what killed Argentina.
@@GlennRRB it's hard to touch on the social cost of the reform because the real magnitude of the impact is seen 5 to 10 years in the future. For example if you cut education, nothing changes on the short term, the real impact is seen when you have less people getting a degree 5 to 6 years down the road.
@@georgew2014caspian report has a heavy bias
Ngl, "hats on horses" is a good law. Im moving to Argentina
Also, getting rid of that law would significantly effect local economies whose businesses were built on designing and making horse hats; a product not made or sold anywhere else in the world.
@@David-ud9ju I’m sorry but good.
😂 welcome Bro
@@PinkFZeppelin why you hate horses? Did you get kicked in the head by one as a kid?
cant believe u making a vid on my country!!! we are honored
you are lucky you have a country
Your country is a template for other western countries will be 'forced' to follow. 😮
@@Bhante-r1r bro got beef with Brazil
he had too he made videos on japan
the solution of people living in ARG in in EZEIZA, that is the only solution
just leave
Patrick's ability to never blink never ceases to amaze me. Having watched many of his videos and never seen him blink the only conclusion we can arrive at it he must be either a robot or alien. Please leave you vote either robot or alien in this videos comments
He has a face that you expect to be associated with infamy.
Some sort of mad hitman or acid bath murderer, but hey we can all make amends.
Seriously though he is real interesting to listen to.
Like looking at Edvard Munch's painting 'The Scream' !
You left out Lizard person, which I guess could also be considered an Alien.
He has a nictatating membrane
Hitman
Visited Argentina in May-June 2024 and loved it. In Cordoba talked with locals and they said they voted for Milei because they were tired of goverment spending,bureaucracy,subsidies,they wanted his drastic measures,were ready for worse personal finances. Was a bummer though when I could't change Argentinian pesos in Peru to local currency.
Has it been a year already, wtf!?
I was thinking it had been a lot longer, feels like Milei has been in power for 2-3 years to me
@@Mag_ladroth A number of people agree with you as well, apparently.
I wonder how many people got it right that it was exactly about a year.
@@andrejparunovic It just feels like a really long year tbh
Yeah, hard time makes it feel longer
I actually felt relief when I saw he had only been in power for a year, it feels like AT LEAST 2 years ago he came into power. Makes me feel like time is passing more slowly than usual, maybe beacuse so many things are happening around the world.
Interesting, great breakdown! I can recall chatter about Argentina's problems even as a kid, so it's not too surprising the level of disruption a turnaround might require.
Spent a month in Patagonia; paved roads in Chile,gravel roads in Argentina. The people in Argentina have been traumatized, it will take a generation to straighten things out.
Where exactly? Most of the Patagonia is a desert, there's nothing going on besides on very specific capital cities
I live in argentina. I'm rich and American. I can care less about most paved roads in the region we live. It's beautiful, people are friendly and life happens slow...
Stay in Chile...
@FLAC2023 It would be nice to use an ATM in Argentina and not have your card cancelled because of potential fraud or need a backpack to carry 100 euros worth of pesos.
Those gravel roads you saw should've been paved many years ago, but due to corruption they never were. And sadly no one cares.
Exactly where? Say it! Many European countries can fit inside de Argentinian Patagonia. So tell us ,where in the vast extension of Patagonia did you find gravel roads......because gravel roads are EVERYWHERE!
Answer!
Nice content Patrick! A great chance to witness a country bounce back from 2-digit number of defaults in my lifetime. May the momentum continue.
we hope..we have hope for the first time in a loooong time-
They cut investments into infrastructures to basically zero
They are gonna get fucked in a decade
@@lucianoemmanuelramirez1304 It will take time, but don't give up, and never let the leftards back in power again.
@@lucianoemmanuelramirez1304 and hope I can see this case to be updated on a textbook as Mr. Milei to be one of the name in human history. The world needs real changes other than the slogan from the mouth of Obama.
Great video! As an Argentinian though, i feel like i have an obligation to tell you that you should explain the black market peso value (dolar blue), because milei devalued the official value of the peso, but the real value (the price at which people can freely buy pesos) has in fact been falling!
The official value of the peso when milei took office was around 360 ARS = 1 USD, the real value was 1200 ARS = 1 USD.
As of the moment when I am writing this comment the official value is around 1060 ARS = 1 USD (the central bank devalues 2% per month, that is what is known as the "floor" of inflation), and the real value is 1100 ARS = 1 USD.
This is in my opinion one of milei's greatest achievements! And the main reason this is happening is because of the govt fiscal surplus (argentina is not printing money since july 2024) and trust in the government.
They also fixed (or at least they made it more transparent) argentinas central banks balance sheet, since they managed to pass the national debt to the treasury (where it always should have been, but previous governments used to ""hide"" national debt as the central bank debt).
I know it may be really specific but i truly do think this explanation is necessary to understand the full context of how hard Milei's ministers have worked this year!
El Tesoro tiene más interés para los títulos de deuda que el Central (5% vs 3%). No se dejaron de imprimir pesos, sino todo lo contrario, lo que pasa es que ahora está bueno tener pesos si hacés carry.
Esto estalla cuando colapse la burbuja porque se retiró un gran acarreador (en el 2019 fue Goldman Sachs) o saquen el cepo, lo que ocurra primero.
@@Yefen no se va a sacar el cepo hasta que las reservas del central dejen de estar en rojo
@@franco1072 Los 4 años de Milei no alcanzan para sacar el cepo entonces, la deuda externa es impagable, ni hablemos de los bopreales de los importadores que dejó Massa. Mucho liberalismo pero cuando llega la hora de ponerse en frente del Estado, todos son comunistas.
I don't understand weather this comment is serious or irony...
@@Yefen hola! No e tiendo exactamente que queres decir. La tasa de interes depende de la tanda. Considerando que las LELIQ del bcra se emitian cuando la tasa estaba 130%, su tea mensual venia siendo de un 7.3% aprox. Las LECAP tienen en promedio una tea mensual de 4%. Pero no estoy seguro de si es eso a lo que te referís!
En cuanto a lo otro no veo realmente un peligro de corrida como 2019, que macri tuvo que volver a meter el cepo. La base monetaria en terminos reales esta fija desde mitad de año
I'm from Argentina and I want to say that it is a very good analysis! I am surprised that people of other countries are very interested in ours lol. I want to add that the main problem of the government in this point is currency appreciate which makes industry and farming less competitive. Investors are so exciting about Argentina that Milei fears that if he takes out exchange controls, the amouth of foreign currency that would enter would appreciate ever more the peso and would make the problem worse. (Argentina products are very expensive now). He wants to be pragmatic and give time to economy to adapt to the new system. If he going very fast the unemployment would be a very serious problem.
PD: My English is not the best haha. Exxume me for that.
Your English is way better than my Spanish, so don't worry.
He's probably right about the foreign investment.
As a Canadian, I'm pretty interested because Canada and Argentina are (or were) very similar. Resource wealthy, but also ruined by Socialist ideology and everyone in the system trying to push their own self-interests. Milei turning things around would support people demanding the same reform in Canada. Honestly, it probably won't work because of Justin Trudeau's demographic putsch over the last 10 years and the fermenting of diversity conflict through out Canadian society. Justin did succeed in making Canada "post-national" which means that Canada is not able to come together and sacrifice to make a better future. Seems like every group under the sun wants "Reparations" in some form or another. They certainly won't want to give up any government money they are getting now. Canada, like the UK, and Europe is just a corpse where the globalist hyenas want to pick over the corpse.
I hope Argentina, and the other South American countries learn from our mistakes and don't be fooled by the pie-in-the-sky globalists. For us, it's probably too late.
Most countries have one thing in common: years of retrogress caused by socialist ideas. This is why Milei is so popular.
they are interested because the billionaire class wants to rip the government apart so they can pay even less tax.
50 Shades of peronism ruined my country : (
GDP in argentina today is $12.000 while it was $5000 in 1930 in constant value dollars (adjusted for inflation). Argentina today is wealthier than it was in its fabled golden era.
@@kpg1973 You wrote the same comment below (twice), which was heavily challenged by others (yours had 2 likes, the challenging ones had 17,5, and various other numbers higher than yours, not that i want to base accuracy on number of likes), and now you proceeded to write it here. What's your agenda? I'm interested in knowing the truth, but haven't heard good things. A lot of people called your comment misguided. Just wondering why you insist on writing the same thing over and over. Whenever I see that, its usually people trying to astroturf the comment section. Now it seems you've re written the comment underneath a comment with a higher number of likes (also a first time commenter, so I'm uncertain of their knowledge as it pertains to economics) making it more likely to attract attention, so I'm just wondering why you're so adamant.
@@theaccountant5846 My agenda is debunking the myth that argentina has had any economic decline. The alleged decline is only relative compared to other countries that got richer but were poor in the 1930s, such as many western european countries, japan and china.
Argentina did not become poor just because other countries stopped being poor.
Just go check the actual economic statistics, argentina has had steady economic growth over the 20th century, just not as much as countries that are wealthier today, like China.
@@kpg1973 You are incredibly dumb, it doesn't matter that Argentina grew what matters is that it grew far less than 50 or so other countries.
@@kpg1973 I have checked the stats, which is why I'm curious why you are so adamant. According to the stats, unemployment has been pushed up from 3% to 8%, as of august inflation had fallen 4.2% but annual inflation still topped 270%, poverty rate jumped from 42% to 53%, and the peso was devalued by 54% as soon as he took office. Nowhere was it indicated that these stats were compared to other countries. I'm just using statistics, though granted I haven't completed a large amount of research. It just seems odd that statistics indicate poverty is increasing, and you claim everything is fine. Perhaps you were better off than most people initially, which is why it didn't affect you. From what I've heard, calls to restart frozen public schools and boost pensions and wages are growing louder, so that would mean people are unhappy.
I need my eyes tested. I saw Sam Bankman Fried..."it's already been a year?" As to why my brain conveniently ignored Javiers name is beyond me. This was fine in any case...😂
Yeah sbf was 2 years ago
@thefinalkayakboss Are you being sarcastic? 🤔
I thought the same 😂
Yeah, gotta watch the ones with disheveled hair: Boris Johnson, SBF, Milei…
@@andrewmcalister3462 Don't forget their hero, Trotsky (Lev Bronstein).
Thanks!
Im so happy that people outside the spanish language are starting to talk about whats happening here
And Im even MORE glad that people outside my country are starting to use the word Peronism and Kirchnerism as a bad related thing
Another Argentinian here that agrees with your point !
Nopuedeser otro fan de kill la kill hola
@@andresgarcia2371 no puedo con Satsuki ajaj
Cosita mas linda cree que entiende el mundo, Milei esta destruyendo aun mas tu pais, llevar una nacion no es jugar a la bolsa, el peso esta sobrevalorado y es una burbuja que va a reventar pronto
Soon, there will only be THREE types of economies!
US aligned, BRICS aligned and ... India?
@@ITH56 Developed, undeveloped, and Japan
@@kenny6839 You're the smart one here.
@@ITH56lol, who is the "I" in BRICS?🤣
Two actually. There are tentative signs that the Japanese economy is finally starting to exit it's post 90s funk.
😮As a Chilean I truly would like our neighbors get their shit together, it would be great for all the continent. Many of the policies Milei wants to impose are similar to have we have done for decades, like signing free trade agreements (we have a lot of those), create a system of concession and APP for infraestructure contracts (like our very succesful one), freeing the currency, etc. I actually find it funny when people say Chile should do what Milei is doing, like we aren't already in a better position in many things...the only thing that's kind of reasonable for us is to cut red tape for big projects, which is kind of getting out of control, but we're trying to fix. But you only need to go to any shopping mall in Santiago to see the huge amounts of Argentinians shopping for all sorts of things, like clothing and homeware, since they're so much cheaper for them here.
Does Patrick Boyle blink?
Not when your looking
Only when he cuts to stock footage.
Those glasses have eyes painted on
He's AI.
Somebody just wrote "animate a snarky Irish economist" in chatgpt
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While the juntas were not helping, let's nor forget the Panama Canal. Argentina had one of the most important ports in the world, attached to land that was very good at growing meat. East Asia had trouble competing just due to transit time and spoilage. The canal changed most of that, and they failed to really industrialize, switching to higher value goods. After they lost that window, recovery quickly became unlikely
They might regain this window,as panama canal becoming less and less navigable due to climate change,who knows??
if the peso is devalued, why am I not eating premium argentinian beef? they were the largest world exporter of beef, right?
natural conditions are not that important economically
AFAIK East Asia countries have never been a significant exporters of meat. Australia and New Zealand perhaps. And as they've developed they've now become significant importers.
Thank you so much for doing this one! When watching your last vodeo I thought of asking you to have a look at Argentina but was a bit shy. Thanks again👍
"Argentina is a soap opera" is a phrase that I've heard used to describe the argentinian economy. I presume that they meant with regard to the ups and downs that it seems to teeter between.
That or the Argentine economy has an evil twin that just came out of a coma and now has amnesia.
Margret Thatcher is not a good comparison for free market propopants as she didn't actually do away with regulations and made a few herself. President Calvin Coolidge is a better comparison.
"Thatcher wasnt stupid enough, she should have made the country EVEN WORSE"
@Helperbot-2000 Argentina was previously running under the "have the government do and manage everything" plan that you seem to support. This very video describes how that worked out for them in the past (answer: very poorly)
@@roymarshall_ I think he's referring to the fact that a lot of the UK's most pressing problems are a direct consequence of Thatcherism - or at least how it was continued by subsequent governments. Privatisations without enforced regulations being a big obvious one
@chrisdickens4268 Except that to my knowledge, privatization _per se_ was not the issue, it was how they went about it. Basically transferring certain utilities to one single company, instead of multiple companies which would then be forced to compete for price and quality. You cannot just expect net positive results when transferring title from one aggressive monopoly (the state) to another.
@@roymarshall_ it also describes how argentna's inflation increased when deregulation and privatization happened, the things that have always been proven to happen
Bro took: „Blink if you’re in danger” too literally.
I miss Professor Boyle’s dry humor.
One of the great professors at Kings. Still continuously learning, from RUclips.
I am currently in Buenos Aires and the prices here are incredibly high. Groceries here cost more than in most of Europe and comparable if not more for most stuff with US prices. Bread costs $4, milk $2/L for example - much more than what I pay in the UK or Poland. Peso is artificially too strong atm as Miley is trying to artificially peg it to the dollar. A lot of people in Argentina are suffering right now but still support the reforms , simply because nothing else has worked in the past.
I'm from Argentina too, and peg to the dollar is something completely different than what is happening, there was a peg to the dollar with the 1 peso = 1 dollar, today the relationship of pesos and dollars constantly change (like all these years).
Argentine's know they have to work hard to dig themselves out of the hole they got themselves into. They don't mind doing the work as long as there's light at the end of the tunnel
the prices are high because the peso appreciated in value but the sellers kept the prices equally high.
@@makesumwake the problem is that most probable the light won't be far better than what they had before yet they'll suffer all the way in...
Salaries are higher now. You should walk more and find better prices.
Good quality Meat 8 dollars a Kg, you can eat 3 times. Banana kg 1.2 dollars, Apples kg 1.5 dollars, Wine 5 dollars, Nice place to rent in a beatiful neighbourhood only 500 dollars per month.
It's a process. Prices are looking their place. Some things are expensive, others cheap
It's actually the best place to live right now and it is packed with U.S citizens.
Nowadays 300 mil for 24 fighters in serviceable condition is basically a steal.
They were about to rot, it was just a clearance sale. I guess having 40 year old jets to go against an imaginary enemy is more important than feeding his country 😂😂😂
@@felixrondon8487 - keeping the military happy is always a good idea in latin-america.
@@felixrondon8487 more like a quid quo pro arrangement, they buy planes from a country and then they have some leverage for other deals in the future. That's the way it goes.
@@felixrondon8487i actually face palmed when I heard.
@@felixrondon8487 dumbest argument yet
I like Patrick's videos. They are well-researched, well-made, go a bit deeper than what I see elsewhere, and I learn something new. Thank you.
11:00 this is a blatant misrepresentation. Milei cut the peso by 50%, but he merely adopted the black market rate of the true value of the peso.
You should know that the government rate of the peso is in fact a big lie, proven by the fact that nobody is willing to sell $$$ for that rate.
Undoing the government's lie, is not a malicious act but necessary to heal the economy.
Technically correct, which is the best kind.
What???? If the unofficial exchange (the one people trade freely, without gov intervention) is almost the same now to the official exchange....what garbage are you talking about??
@@peterp7541Your reading comprehension is the garbage one. You are just parroting what he just said but in simpler terms.
@@retrictumrectus1010 not sure if it is your IQ or maybe your poor command of the English language....but what RedTTHayo said is incorrect, Milei did not adopt the black market rate....the other way around, the black market rate (influenced freely by the people trading in that market) moved closer and closer to the rate Milei adopted....there was a 50% gap last July and now it is less than 10% and it was 0% recently....that is an incredible achievement and proof that his program is working.....in the previous administration the gap was 300%!!! No one believed in the crooks that were running the country before!!!
I live in Argentina. As a foreigner, it's been an interesting experience.
Interesting indeed, I remember when the dolar blue was around 10 pesos
Thanks for the insight.
What do you think? Is Argentina's future bullish? What you smell In the air? Hope or depression?
If the government is able to bring wages up and in line with reality, drop tariffs/taxes on imported and digital goods and manages to get the mercosur/EU deal and a deal with the US sorted I can see good things coming out of this.
Otherwise in 3 years it's all going to swing back the other way
Don't waste your time bro - move on
Please talk about Nigeria. I would love to see an outsider's perspective on our situation
What's going on, Nigeria?
@@escamon4211 Corruption, as usual. It’s the national pastime
@@escamon4211 nigerian princes asking for wire transfer
This is actually a very good video. Very neutral.
Things have improved a little bit more since the video data. Still things are rough, but improving every day.
This is a very in depth video. Much appreciated!
OUCH! Patrick, your humor knows no bounds. King and Queen Gee Gee of Britain! Wow!
Whats the joke behind that?
Best English video about Argentina I've ever seen.
Great content as always Patrick.
note, Peron worked both sides not just "the left", he learned it in the 1920's as a militar atache while Mussolini was on the rise (and who was a Trotskyst in his youth). Another detail he exiles himself in a Spain ruled by the dictatorship of Franco...
He really knew how to be on any side without being called as either. To this day peronists can't or won't risking defining themselves politically. Just ask if Thai are left or right... neither... centrist... no... peronist
@@polecabopara mí no es algo malo, es la identidad del peronismo, la adaptabilidad y el servicio al pueblo
Love Patrick !!! CNBC can learn something from his format
Fair, balanced and very informative. Thank you for your insights.
Ah, this is going to be a good one. Thanks Patrick
Excellent discussion on Argentina. Excellent
I am surprised at your comment since the analysis was so biased against workers!
@@deeman1643 Yawn
This came out literally hours before I fly to Buenos Aires.
you must be the main character
hope u enjoy your stay in our country.
I have an Argentinian friend who has had nothing but praise for what Milei is doing. He says he's saved more money in the last year than he did in almost a decade of the previous governments.
Saved? Real wages dropped in the head and the unemployment is slowly growing back.
@@novinceinhosic3531 not true, purchasing power is rising, plus currency is appreciating so wages measured in USD have almost trebled even if costs also grew a lot.
@@novinceinhosic3531 Real wages are already rising since July. You need to wait a couple of months to see the oficial stats of the second semester. What happened in the first semester is all the damage carried from the last government, which left us with the worst economic situation of all our history.
Employment was sustained with public jobs and public construction.
Great number of numbers/points covered in a single video)) you've got one more subscriber with this one
Building exports from nothing will be tough. [he understated]
Patrick is misinformed on this point, and I noted it above....Argentina's exports will boom in 2025 and beyond.....with Milei incentives for investments....the highly rich export oriented sectors of energy, mining and agro business are starting to boom.....there will be a huge increase in exports in the next years...
@@peterp7541 "will boom" "Starting to boom"... do you have any data to support that conclusion? Also, which is it?
@@persperspersp2866not that person but I will say Argentina has several rare earth elements only found in a few places like China. Since China this year restricted sale to the US of these elements Argentina is one of the only places they are found. Probably one of the reasons trump is eager for a trade deal as the US needs those elements for everything from computer chips to weapons development. As such it should be a good year for Argentina trade wise.
Let's get Patrick to 1 million subscribers before 2025
Long term follower of Patrick’s work. Your post prompted me to check, and I wasn’t actually subscribed. Now fixed.
Why. He comes with the same.mindset of the people that have ruined the economy. Leftist that always want immediate gains and can't understand short term hardship for long term gain.
If anything makes a 4 go to a 3 or 2 it's immediately bad. No matter what the purpose for the future is . Money printer go burrr that's him
He's literally the same people that you complain about in the government, but he makes some jokes. That's how easy you are to manipulate. Low IQ
Love the update on Argentina. Fascinating work!!!
As I've quipped for the last year: "Argentina got so desperate that they elected a libertarian."
That's the part I still miss. Why was the ancaps the best alternative to peronism. These are not the two-choice US system.
@@SusCalvin No other group is as fixated on monetarist inflation as libertarians or hates it more. Every other party in the face of inflation will throw up their hands and say "the supply chain crisis is complicated" and then implement a bunch of half measures which feel like more of the same. Libertarians point their fingers squarely at central banks and offer a convenient and sometimes correct scapegoat.
@@archstanton3931 This solution would still have a central bank in place, the US fed. The EU nations in the Euro sphere are also bound to a single monetary policy.
It's the reason I get nervous about direct political control of things like public service media, central banks etc. The central bank is sometimes tasked with doing things that hurt the voters.
@@archstanton3931 I view a small fragment of industry logistics chains at work and they are bonkers. End consumers sometimes get weird illusions that we are flexible and efficient.
@@SusCalvinwhat’s confusing about libertarianism being the ideal alternative to massive big govt socialism???
Nicy balanced report. Thank you!
This men is way too underrated!
My favorite quip: regulating hat-wearing horses and moving to a photo of Camilla and Charles. 🤣
Do you have any sources? Some of the things you say are either yet to happen (Meaning they probably will but are not in effect right now), or plain untrue.
For example, according to the INDEC (The official national index) rent prices have skyrocketted since he took office, yet you claimed a whopping 50% reduction.
Since you don't cite any sources I have no way of verifying it.
All the great content aside, 'Ministry of Deregulation' is simply hilariously paradoxical - bureaucracy required to eliminate bureaucracy
DOGE
Unfortunately, you need someone with the authority and power to remove stifling laws and Milei has neither the time nor the full range of knowledge to do it all himself.
Also, concentrating that much power in one person’s hands is… unwise, as history has shown repeatedly.
Justifying the state's existence is itself a philosophical paradox, so one might say it requires a paradox to remove it.
If the situation is messed up enough, it can make sense to have a Ministry of Cleaning Up The Mess. Once the mess is cleaned up, you can get rid of this ministry.
It’s paradoxical but not contradicting.
You need an organized body that deletes all bodies and then deletes or reduces itself
Vivek and Elon did not miss the irony. They committed to dissolving themselves within 6 months or whatever time limit was set
I always want to see what happens when America First encounters Argentina First, UK First, Belgium First etc. Is this supposed to be a global brotherhood outside the EU.
😂😂This will end so well, selfish nationalists will definitely get along well. They won't start wars
Uhm ... if WWI and WWII teach us anything ...
@@davianoinglesias5030They won't because it's not in their national interest stupid. The people arguing for support of wars right now in the US are the globalists who think it's our job to police the world.
Yes, a brotherhood... something like a hydra. Many venomous heads and just one underwhelming body.
@@fanemanelistu9235 The Great Powers that made up the Concert of Europe have this very practical sense of power balance. They have a few basic agreements, that there can't be another great continental war. The whole system of conferences and brokering serves partly to avoid that. You can have a limited war, swap a few territories, cut up China or Poland if necessary.
The people who wrote national epics and art are not invited to those conferences.
I think another extremely short sighted analysis. "Number goes up" might show as an improvement in the short term, but what do you imagine that the long term impacts of not investing in infrastructure & education will be, both financially and socially? There might be a bright "dawn" ahead for some but likely at the expense of the many - for example: every economy exploited by captial currently.
A final ideological complaint. Why is a countries success only ever seen as financial, rather than the genral well being of its citizens. Not having fancy stuff might seem like an imposition when you have a guaranteed roof over your head, healthcare and reasonably priced food
Someone still needs to pay for that roof and that food and it is clear that the Argentinian government couldn't. 211% inflation is unsustainable. A government that can't take care of its finances is in no position to take care of its citizens.
@michielvandersijs6257 You're not wrong but it doesn't mean the principle isn't right
Education funding has not been destroyed as opponents say, yes he has not given an increase Equal to inflation, but Universities spent with no control. No haudit has been done in 16+years... I worked for 15 as a University Admin oficial, I saw such stuff... Bordering onncriminal... And there has been criminal stuff done...
Only Universities are funding by nationale governement, schools are by provinces... And that was not doing good lately either... The level of education has been destroyed in the last 2 decades
These policies are just a transfer of wealth from the poor to the wealthy,Milei is the Reagan of Argentina and the result will be a wiping out of the middle class
This criticism is in itself short sighted. Borrowing money you can't pay back, defaulting on that debt, and then doing to the same thing over and over is not a path to "investing in infrastructure and education". It's a dead end to poverty. It becomes a huge drag on the economy, the people, and ruins any future prospects of things getting better. It's the nation state equivalent of a person financing their lifestyle with credit card loans and then declaring bankruptcy every time they can't pay it back, and then complaining they can't live the way they want to without loans. Peak short-sightedness. Create a regulatory environment that promotes growth and then right-size the state for your economy to stabilize finances. As the economy grows, you can offer better services and invest in bigger infrastructure projects, facilitating even more growth.
Argentina was a good economy with most people living in poverty. Thats why there were so much political instability.
Is it a "good economy" if it doesn't benefit the people? This is what I don't get in economic analysis like this one: like Trump, Milei is not at all interested in the people. The butchering that is being done to institutions in Argentina as well as the US will destroy so much more than any money that the rich divide among themselves can repay.
Glad I found this channel. Informative, and a very nice voice. That counts for a lot, really.
Milei is a rare politician who has a large mandate to make actual meaningful changes, with the public understanding that the situation is so dire that it will require measures that are going to make a bunch of things worse in the short term to fix them in the long run.
Milei îs merely another Zionist puppet used to move the herd into Agenda 21.
Yes, after 90 years of mismanagement, they have a fantastic potential. Hope it works out.
And likely will be end sacrificed to the altar of angry mobs screaming for his blood.
Notice that most of the damage he is causing is not "short term" things like that pension money that he "borrowed" is is gone for good and won't come back, ever. Notice also that the way he is balancing the finances is directly impacting economic growth.. which is fine as long as it is offset by further investment, something is not clear will happen anytime soon. That's a delicate balance game that I'm not sure he has the brain or will to play and the effects, either positive or negative, will take a few years to show.
The way I see it, the people are going to tolerate him as long as they see hope for betterment... which is by definition a short term effect. Once the actual effects of his policies emerge people will judge him, and I have the feeling that as soon as he stumbles, he will fall, badly.
looks more like he is completely selling the people to foreign interests in the long run
but that they will only recognize in a few years. Been there, done that. Argentina isnt the first country to get ruined by foreign capital only for libertarians to come in and sell the shards to the guys who broke it in the first place
56% approval rating, I wouldn't call that public understanding. But yeah, argentines are fucked for the short term.
For the long term we will have to wait.
Patrick your sense of humor is chef’s kiss 💋 👌
Poverty has fallen to 39% in the third quarter. Milei best presidente in the world. It's exactly what I voted for.
I really enjoyed this unbiased look at his tenure. I'm a progressive but I'm not afraid to look at ideas I don't agree with. I'm smart enough to know I don't know everything.
Unlike conservatives
@@bofty shut up wokey
I wouldn't necessarily say this is an unbiased look. It's definitely viewed through a Neoliberal lens.
What was barely touched upon is just how hard this is hitting normal Argentinians. I don't know if there's any other solution to the problem let me make that clear, but it's caused a massive increase in poverty and suffering for people who were already struggling.
@@MrManBuzz you are wrong , this didnt create poverty , poverty was created by socialist overspending and building out a corrupted economy
@@MrManBuzz I'm also missing the obvious long-term consequences. It is trivially easy to cut government spending. It is not easy to do so while still investing in infrastructure, education, and healthcare and many other things that are vital for a healthy economy.
To be fair, it is impossible to say what the effects will be, but just cutting spending is not a big achievement.
I wish success to Milei and hope Argentina can tap its potential.
Wishing and hoping and thinking and praying...
@robertbraden4454
Milei has my vote as a future lamppost decoration.
Happy Xmas Pat and thanks for all your great work
There is one thing missing. The Vaca Muerta oil and gas reserves. This should skyrocket the exports and give Argentina the dollars it needs to fill the central bank with new international reserves. Acording to some economists Milei need a bridge between now and when this is going to start happening in 2027.
Almost got robbed in Argentina by "fake taxi drivers" operating at the Airport --> BE AWARE OF SCAMS!!! It might cost your life. I hope this post saves lives.
Did they attempt to drive you into a secluded part of BA and shoot a porno with you?
FAKE TAXI
Peru has a similar problem, but they have kiosks inside the airport where you pre-pay for your taxi and are escorted to your cab with your bags.
Yeah don't use Taxis here. Uber is the best option if you're a tourist
Called lapis legit
Every layer has own passion and another term
🥇
Expensive Worth after ALL
Doesn't seem like a good idea to cut education.
Depends on the education department......if it has become bloated and full of beuracratic overreach then it may need to be cut back first
@@MrJpc1234 You would know
Educational spending discussions are always so braindead. People act like more spending = more educated people, yet in reality youll see data like how Chicago schools DOUBLED their school spending and student grades continued to decline even faster.
@@thewingedringer What does that even mean here? like are you disagreeing with the concept or are you being sarcastic saying I personally wouldn't know?
@@roymarshall_Maybe the new professors are tougher
There were no middle class one century ago in Argentina. To have a high GDP rate doesn't necessarily mean wealth is well distributed. Half of what you say is half-truths told by media that supports right-wing politicians.
Correct. Ignorant myth comparing an agrarian Argentina of less than 5 million population and extremely concentrated ownership and income reliant almost entirely on exports of meat and grain mainly within the British Empire to circumstances by 1940s with triple the population, fascists having been in charge during the 1930s, and a completely different economic mix. Also, "GDP" was not defined before 1930s and before 1950s in most countries is a retrospective and extremely unreliable estimate.
And having won 10 of the 14 ellections since back in the day, and being that Macri was the only non-peronist to finish His mandate, Argentina has been going downwards since Peronismo started to show it's face here. Protectionism has only allowed alteady powerful People to continue being powerful... Wealth redistribution has been a lie all this years
There were no middle class one century ago in Argentina, and everywhere else my friend, that is what the world was like before WWI and WWII.....do your homework.
@@peterp7541 that only reinforces my point. Think before sending people to do homework. You don't even know who I am.
@@gabygonza What you said is stupid, that is it. Argentina attracted millions of people from all over the world who left their far away homelands to have a better life in Argentina....and for the most part, they prospered handsomely....that is why immigrants kept coming from the 1880s throughout the 1930s....so the wealth concentration point to discredit how successful Argentina was at that time when the economy was open, pro capitalist and foreign trade (like Milei wants to bring back) is an ignorant point of view...because the country was hugely successful at the time....and second only to the USA for the number of immigrants received at that time.....of course things went from bad to worse when the country started its protectionist, interventionist, anti trade, and anti capitalist drive, hugely impacting businesses economic freedoms.....starting with Irigoyen and made much worse with Peron and his political movement that sunk the country to the ground to the embarrassing lows left by the last administration who left the country in complete devastation in Dec 2023..
The best rap news channel, new Millei album dropping soon.
18:16 Argentina is the seventh biggest country in the world. Was almost ten years now without a fleet of supersonic airplanes. The air force base in Tandil that is supposed to assist the capital city of Buenos Aires (500km of distance) was no longer able to give an inmidiate responde in case of conflict. Places like the triple border with Paraguay and Brazil and many sensitive places of our air space were completely undefended.
Be defended against what exactly? South America nowadays is one of the most peaceful continents when it comes to conflicts between nations
@@justaguyontheinternet6779 Still, all South America countries have a decent Air Force, we need to achieve that
@ I understand, but when you want to lower gov spending, you should start with the military, especially when you don’t have a war going on
@@justaguyontheinternet6779 Lol no, the military is the most important thing for a free and sovereign country. It's the way to show the world and investment that u cand defend them against any agression or thread available. Milei is doing GREAT with it, the Argentine Military needs an deserves much better, we, the people that voted for him, agree with it and a lot of people voted for him because of that only.
@@justaguyontheinternet6779 Also you cant cut what is already cutted. The military has been severely uninvested in the last 25-30 years
Thank you Patrick
Wow. I'm living here in Argentina and I know rent supply has not tripled and rent rates have most certainly not come down but increased substantially. The cost of everything has gone up. Imported goods have not come down in price.
Capital controls on foreign investments is a very serious problem for Argentina and no reform will truly work until that is fixed.
I've wondered if Macri's paying the debt that Argentina defaulted on in 2001 is the thing that pushed Argentina's economy off a cliff again. Milei blames the Peronists entirely, and there is a lot of blame there, but Macri and now Milei are piling on more problems.
You should argue with numbers instead of feelings
Shhh... You need to bootlick like the rest of the comments
Hey, great outfit! That jacket is fab!
In the first decades of the 20th century, Argentina was an agricultural exporting country with an oligarchy that owned commodities. There were no rights established for the working class. Perón created free universities, an 8-hour workday, paid vacations, women's suffrage, a science ministry, and legality to join unions. I'm just saying that there should be a form of government that allows for fiscal balance in the macroeconomy but that benefits the people instead of a tiny elite.
Sugerencias
Argentina's GDP per capita was $5000 (adjusted for inflation) in 1930, it is $12.000 today. Critics will call a 140% economic growth (per capita) a crisis and an economic contraction.
The unions didn't exist in the world either. Maybe countries were able to generate working protections without destroying the companies that employ such workers. Even USA.
Please don't export the fascist propaganda of Argentinian textbooks to the english language. That discourse is tired and old. Thanks to Milei we are recovering our history and understanding the true legacy of Fascism in Argentina as opposed to the unrelenting success of Liberalism in the 19th century.
Es imposible que un economista de RUclips mencione las condiciones de vida de la gente común
Nahh, you got all the information wrong, look at real history and you will find that Peron did not create any of that really, simply stole the credit. Dont let these people confuse you with false narratives that have nothing to do with reality. Do your own research. I used to believe the same falsehood until I checked real, historic facts.
I don't understand, what is more important. GDP and government spending or how well the average citizens are doing
GDP and government spending does affect how well the average citizen is doing. Inflation and IMF loans used to pay for the lavish government spending reflects instability which means investors are put off and the economy just gets worse and worse, not to mention the effects of inflation and high government debt on the average citizen. It's unsustainable and irresponsible. The books need to be balanced first and foremost.
Feliz Navidad y aguante Milei
Great breakdown. It’s great to see what Milei has promised is actually starting to work and that his approval rating is still high. His plans just take a long time and it will get worse before it gets better, if he doesn’t get re-elected then the chance exists that everything he tried to do will just be reversed, but so far it’s looking good.
It’s not. More than 53% of Argentina has plunged into poverty. Milei had Musk push his bs propaganda the other day on X but in reality day to day people are struggling. They are claiming they’ve settled the debt but it’s bs. They need to push the narrative that their methods are working but people know what’s going on. They’re waiting for the country to collapse to bring in a new form of government.
Thats the thing with austerity at first it does improve things, long term it always fails. You have to invest to build a countries economy and keep it flowing
Peronism was not "left-wing" by any means! How come you get that so very wrong? Peron was proponent of the so-called "third way" ("Nor yankees, nor marxist") certainly inspired by the Fascist Italy. Peron entered politics by joining the "hard-line conservative" coup of 1930 as a young oficial and kept hiking up the power ladder, while the military kept on becoming a party of its own, torn by the pull between traditional ties to Britain, the enduring interest of the US in replacing the latter, and the sound success of the hard-core right-wing in Europe (Fascist, Nazis, Falangists, etc.) All of this trying hard to impede any kind of turn of the country to the Left, in Red Scare times. Peron rose thanks a populist workers movement with a strong nationalist, Christian, European spirit, based in the ideas of "social justice" and the promise of industrial development against the classic landowner agro oligarchy tied to Britain (that made fortunes until falling to pieces around 1920). Nationalization and overall state controlled planned economy was central to his views. In pollitical terms peronism concieved society as a play of "organizations" and forces (workers, trade, industrial unions, the military, church, etc.) cuasi-integrated into the State with Peron leadership on top. Eventually as happened all over the world, Peron was ousted in the name of liberalism.
Argentina's supposed "Golden Age" or "Gilded Era" existed only in terms of enrichment of a very few thanks to a colonial scheme of raw material exports and foreign "investment" in times of expansion and competition of the European societies, particularly from the turn of the century to the inter wars period. When that started to crack (here and all over the world), the growing population started placing pressure for income distribution. Left-wing movements were hastily repressed, and then not even democratic "left" was acceptable for the ruling class, giving way to the 1930 military coup and the installation of a long history of authoritarian control of the society. Argentina is constitutionally a Liberal State Republic with a strong presidential style, a semicolonial society with a strong nationalist sense of self, deep catholic traditions, and populist authoritarian way of solving things... all on top of one of the richest landmasses in the world.
How is state controlled economy not left-wing?
@Wasd3r actually as in most countries in the world today, as well as in the past, independently of its pollitical discourse. Even Milei's Argentina is a state controlled economy, so far... as is Biden's US, and Trump's US will be. In any case, the discussion is about how much control a given State has... or where it has control and where hasn't. States that loose control of their economies are not much of a State anymore. State ownership of means of production is a whole different discussion.
What makes left or right is more of the discourse on certain societal issues, particularly about how much intervention the State should have in the affairs of the commons and the lives of individuals and groups of people. The difference is on how and where to intervine, not about doing it or not. Once you sit on the throne and start stamping your seal in executive orders, you are not by any means and anarchist anymore.
If in your country the State does not have any kind of control of it's economy you can be completely certain that some other State has got it.
Great work Patrick VLLC
VIVA LA LIBERTAD CARAJO
It's overall a pretty good summary, except the poverty rates weren't actually 42% when Milei took office, that was a figure made up by the previous administration, since the methods used and the parameters picked for measuring it were cherry picked to show a more convenient reality. Controlled prices make it look like the basic goods are more affordable than what they really are, but when you try to buy these artificially cheap goods they are nowhere to be found. Same with healthcare and energy prices. Kirchnerism only measured stuff they controlled, so the metrics look nice.
Also, the real purchasing power of a retiree's pension was 95 USD, and one year later it's over 300, that's another classic Peronism trap, they will update your pension, but only through printing money, so the real value of that updated pension is diminished by inflation, leaving you worse off than when you started
Surprised in the lack of comment about Not paying provincial governments as that is just sloshing debt and deficits to create an artificial surplus.
Fair point.
Reminds me of good old Blighty, my own country.
Cutting transfers pushes provinces to handle their own budgets better instead of piling up debt and relying on constant bailouts
I dont think he needs to create artifical surplus since any reduction in government spending could create a surplus after the massive waste and deficits left by decades of Peronism
He does distribute an amount set by law, he only cut the discretionary handouts that provinces previously received.
Afuera! Has to be the best video clip of the century.
Investors prefer countries they feel they can take advantage of.
of course, you don't put your money in a place where you will may lose it, do you?
Fucking obviously, its supposed to be like that
@peterp7541 I agree. Argentina is a watering hole for them right now. They'll whip every bit of wealth from it and it's people and move onto the next ripe fruit.
@@peterp7541 so we should let foreign investement exploit our people and resources? is that the logic behind this argument?
That's how humans think in general. Workers also prefer companies that they feel they can take advantage of. Everyone does it. Anybody who says otherwise is a liar or has a different mindset.
A terminal patient will try almost anything when existing treatments have failed. What I took from this is that Argentinians were and are truly desperate, regardless of what measuring-sticks and benchmarks are applied to their circumstances. I pray they get what they are wishing for!
I mean, it's either this or keep the same system and print more non-stop with no breaks until the bubble finally pops and it all comes crashing down at ones.
@@Jack-4v who said its a forced binary choice? There are other things they could do...
@persperspersp2866 like what the majority of the candidates were for keeping things the same except promising more benefits to an already crumbling economy
Pray to what/who?
Sounds promising all things considered, I hope it goes well for Argentina.
if there are no external or govt investments, argentina will stagnate after the schock therapy just like eastern europe. if argentina is supposed to be a role model for latin america, they will just like chile get investments from the west. if not they will become like most other nations that have stable but insignificant growth.
That why it's a good thing they got some pretty good resources to help with that
@@Jack-4v but the rest of the world should not be tricked by american geopolitical moves as a success of the american system. take a look at haiti, dominican republic. taiwan, s. korea, singapore, israel are all rich because of their position to natural resources, china and russia.
@@TheDynamicmarketwhat an insane comment. You picked all these small countries that have very little natural resources (except South Korea). Those countries are rich because they embraced capitalism. Taiwan and Israel are tech powerhouses. Singapore is an international trade powerhouse.
so Argentina will either stagnate or become a vassal state lol
@@erickschusterdeoliveira2662 I mean that what most south American and African country are right
I don't understand how removing rent controls could possibly result in rent coming *down*. I understand supply increasing if prices are allowed to float above the cap, which would bring down the *undistorted* market price from what it was before, but I don't see how it could possibly drop below the previous price cap. In other words, if a would-be landlord wasn't willing to rent their space out at the controlled prices, why would they be willing to do so at a market price that was even lower?
Simple. Rent control restricts supply. Removing it increases supply, putting a downward pressure on rent prices. Supply and demand. 50% more available rentals. The landlords have to charge market prices.
NY, San Francisco and Santa Monica all have rent control and the highest rents in the country.
Rent control disincentivizes building new housing because the would be landlord wouldn't make enough money to make it worth it.
@@duaneaikins4621LOL what an absolute garbage argument San Francisco and New York are the most wealthy areas in the United States that’s why the rent is high not cause of rent control you absolutely buffoon
You've a point. Milei has only eliminated the crowding out effects of government spending and subsidies.
But if his congress does not allow him to reform the regulations that make it expensive to put up and operate a business, he will not be able to grow jobs and the economy.
the other posters absolutely have the direction of causation backwards; removing rent controls doesn't result in rent coming down (the effect wouldn't be so immediate anyway) but rather other factors alongside that can do so, such as loosening regulations on residential construction or the like
Always find your insights so timely, thanks for another great video
I claim no expertise, but isn't much of Milei's programme predicated on a free trade environment where Argentina can export freely, particularly to the USA, and export it's way to a healthy economy?
If so are Pres Trump's tariffs going to be an issue.
A big issue.
Yeah but Trump's tariffs are selective, you rub my back, I rub yours. So I'm sure MIlei will exploit the fool that is that fat blob.
I think Trump intends on using tariffs more for geopolitical leverage than neocon protectionism.