Why Russia’s Economy is Worse than it Looks
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- Опубликовано: 21 сен 2024
- News about Russia's economic strength has been overblown recently. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has been a disaster for their oil production, for their trade, and for their budget. A part of this is how the IMF has been repeating suspect data given by Rosstat, the state controlled statistics agency.
Hopefully this video helped you in understanding the current economic standing of Russia. Full sources for all points in the video can be given if the video grows, or on specific request.
Such an underrated channel glad to be here before 100k subs! It's coming!
that's nice to say to your brother 😂😂🤣🤣
here with you. great video and subbed.
Think of Russia as a house on a street. They have no money, but its cold and it want to be shown to be able to keep the house warm, like every other house on the street.
What to do? First you burn all the coal and wood you have stored in your shed.
Everyone sees the smoke and think everything's fine.
Then you start to dismantle the inside of your shed to feed the burner.
Everyone sees the smoke and think everything's fine.
When the shed threatens to fall over, something you do not want your neighbors to see, you start on your house. First you let no one see the inside. Then you start with the furniture.
Everyone sees the smoke but thinks its strange that you no longer invite them. But it seems fine.
When you're out of furniture, you start with the non-bearing walls.
Everyone sees the smoke and think everything's fine.
Then every second plank in the roof, parts of the bearing walls.
Everyone sees the smoke and think everything's fine.
When you picked your house apart the smoke starts to stop.
Everyone starts to wonder if you are fine?
Then when the whole house falls down around you,
everyone knows you are not fine.
What does Russia say that isn't a lie?
Who is Russia? Or do you mean the Russian Federation? Only Putin speak for the federation and he is not interested in truth. He is interested to keep power for another 24 year.
Neither the author of the video nor you have ever been to Russia and have never seen videos of Westerners living in Russia. At the same time, you are sure that you understand Russia, although both you and the author of the video are afraid to go to Russia for at least a month and see everything with your own eyes.
@@cepreupupkin2218do you mean that american nazi who went to donbass to help russian terrorists and then got killed by them? 😂
@@cepreupupkin2218 what you're saying is mostly a fair point. I have not and do not intend to visit Russia in the future. Currently the whole war situation makes Russia a less attractive option than the DPRK imo. But I do not think that videos of westerners living in Russia casts a fair comparison either. Where are foreigners most likely to live in any country? The capital and or biggest cities. But any country can make it's capital shine bright at the cost of the rest of the country.
@cepreupupkin2218 I was in Russia and Crimea before 2024. Outside of Moscow it was not much different than in Guatemala or an African country. Why should I go to Russia again? To end in prison until I will be exchanged against an FSB officer?
This is the most concise and well made argument Ive seen so far against their economic lies.
Genuinely surprised this is a small channel.
Neither the author of the video nor you have ever been to Russia and have never seen videos of Westerners living in Russia. At the same time, you are sure that you understand Russia, although both you and the author of the video are afraid to go to Russia for at least a month and see everything with your own eyes.
@@cepreupupkin2218 I'm not a Westerner and I've been to Russia. The author of the video is not wrong in anything he says.
@@cepreupupkin2218 The video is about economic data and analysis and you bring up unrelated concepts like "understand Russia" and trying to value vlogs from a country that has banned RUclips over economic data analysis.
Bring up counter-arguments to the economic data and interpretations presented in the video - it's not hard and some people have done so in other comments.
WHO the HELL WANTS RUBELS
Tucker Carlson, Donald Trump, MTG, JD Vance, Dave Rouble (Rubin), Tim Stool, Benny Johnson, Mike Johnson, Lauren Southern, Lauren Chen, Tenet Media (Moscow tenant media), some German Politicians, Victor Orban...
@@kentl7228 Not a Trump fan, but I don't get why this idea that he is pro-Russia persists. There's video here that he is badmouthing German bureaucrats for relying on Russian oil and gas, why they just ignore him. I don't think a Russian agent would do that.
You got my vote on this subject, you are one hundred 💯 right on
I am from Russia. Thank you for the video. For me it's obvious that our economy is declining.
Do you think that there is any chance at all of real protests if things get worse?
@@PappaTom-ub3ht It is hard to say. But it seems like there will be a slow long decline.
Putin without any doubt is 100% aware of this.
But he is just a good actor.
He knows that he can't show how bad the situation actually is.
@@hg6996 yes, certainly a good actor. Even after Crimea, he had all the world’s leaders convinced that all was ok and that after a few token gestures all was forgotten. Even after the Ukrainian invasion, there were still some of the high profile European leaders who believed that it was just another unfortunate misstep and that they could talk him back into the fold. To get fooled by a good actor once is allowable, but twice?
He is not a good actor, but the MAGA rats needs to believe anything that goes against the Democrats. Luckily this inhuman attitude will backfire on them.
Russia just raised interest rates to 19%. What economy doing well does that?
Also, why would China look to increase energy dependence on a regime that has already shown itself quick to weaponise the product against not just their declared enemies, but also against any country who supports them or even just looks like supporting them. Far too untrustworthy for such a long term commitment, even in peacetime.
So that they become less reliable on the good will of the US navy.
the air is slowly draining out of Mr P's swelled head
Neither the author of the video nor you have ever been to Russia and have never seen videos of Westerners living in Russia. At the same time, you are sure that you understand Russia, although both you and the author of the video are afraid to go to Russia for at least a month and see everything with your own eyes.
@@cepreupupkin2218🤡
Great explanations, logical conclutions and sweet infographics! Thank's from Sweden 👍
Firstly... Share this video. A great explanation.
I saw that restaurants and other similar places in Russia have a currency devaluation surcharge of 10% on their bills
A ruble is worth roughly one cent US
This must be embarrasing
Nah a low rouble increasing oil and federal budget profit margin
BBC ‘’NEVER LET THE TRUTH INTERFERE WITH A GOOD STORY ‘’
Not forgetting destroyed pipelines and refineries leads to stop the pumping of new oil. This with Russian winter destroyes the drillspots forever cause the freeze and break repairtime decades
Putin is out of mind. He has the Ego like a narcissist. They can't never have wrong.
Many Russian citizens have inflated egos. Just look at any comments in Russian social media: there is hardly any nation in the world they don’t ridicule. The propaganda constantly reminds them that they colonized/developed Asia and Caucasus, funded many Middle eastern, African and Latin American states, that they are the beacon of civilization, after Europe became sinful and decadent, and they are victor of the WW2. There is a full blown wave of nazism in Russia and many Russians view it as a norm.
yes, Putin is an extreme narcissist/psychopath and will sacrifice anything and everything (i.e. Russia and the Russians) to achieve his goals and will always do everything to look like a good tsar and leader. He will blame others for all his failures - his subordinates (he sends them to harsh labor camps/prisons) and, of course, he accuses other countries of everything bad. He will never admit his mistake and guilt. Only his entourage and the oligarchs can get rid of him. Russians as a society will not do anything because they believe in their tsar. A society that does not know what democracy is will do nothing - they will probably only replace Putin with another dictator. This is how Russia has functioned for centuries and this is how it has always been there.
I recommend reading the book "Letters from Russia. Russia in 1839.” Author: Astolphe de Custine wrote, for example: 'This society of automats/robots is like half a game of chess, because one man moves all the pieces, and the invisible opponent is humanity. Everyone here moves and breathes only with the emperor's permission or at his command, so everyone is gloomy and restrained: silence presides over life and paralyzes it."
Almost 200 years have passed, and Russia and Russians are still the same. Nothing has changed.
Excellent video, well explained and the full truth.
Agreed, good summary!
IMF is stuck in a 1990s paradigm and not just with its Russian analysis
Brilliant video, you are spot on in your analysis! Your compilation is one of the best I have seen, since the war started. Your arguments are logical and from my point of view based on facts. I have been critical to the statements from the IMF, since the outbreak of the war. I expected that they would be able give more intelligent analysis of the economy in Russia. Keep up your good work 👍
Neither the author of the video nor you have ever been to Russia and have never seen videos of Westerners living in Russia. At the same time, you are sure that you understand Russia, although both you and the author of the video are afraid to go to Russia for at least a month and see everything with your own eyes.
@@cepreupupkin2218Thrice 🤡🤡🤡
Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦
Героям слава 🔱
Great stuff
Factorio soundtrack giving huge credibility to this channel😅
There are two major things that the Russian government is not counting and which would show that the Russian government is running an even bigger deficit.
Russia is quickly using up its inventory of military equipment that it took Russia 80 years to accumulate.
Any company that was using up vast amounts of inventory of any items would include that information on its financial statements.
As well, due to poor maintenance related to labour shortages Russian infrastructure is deteriorating much faster than normal.
It would be inappropriate for a company to record a certain rate of depreciation on equipment if in fact its equipment was depreciating at a much faster rate.
As far as I know there aren't any countries that include depreciation of infrastructure on their financial data as governments seem more focused on cash flow but really they should include depreciation of infrastructure in their financial data and that is especially true for Russia.
Eventually Russia is going to want to rebuild its inventory of military equipment and replace its decrepit infrastructure and that is going to cost a vast amount of money.
Thanks, very good summary.
Russia has a long tradition on false or hidden economic data - counting time of Soviet Union now more than 100 years.
Neither the author of the video nor you have ever been to Russia and have never seen videos of Westerners living in Russia. At the same time, you are sure that you understand Russia, although both you and the author of the video are afraid to go to Russia for at least a month and see everything with your own eyes.
@@cepreupupkin2218oh sure, if they go to ruzzia, will you show them the toilet you stole from Ukraine?
@@cepreupupkin2218 But we know how life is in Russia. The web is full of videos from Russia - interviews, and reports. We all know that only Moscow and St Petersburg are well-developed cities. Anyway, every dictator always has some city of his own that he takes care of, because he has to show that he is doing well and even his regime is even richer than other countries. All according to the principle of ‘for show’ - we pretend to be big and rich just like it is done in communist countries - a dignitary arrives and then the grass is painted green and the street they pass through is repaired. And beyond the street, it's a mess and a tragedy. Just go 50 km outside Moscow and you'll see that people there have no water or sewerage. Anyway, the satellite pictures say it all. There is food available in the shops, because there are no sanctions on food from abroad, and the only restrictions on food were introduced by Putin himself. However, the prices of these products are high. Russian food prices are also rising, as this year has been a poor one for Russian agriculture (there are shortages of potatoes and beet). But everything will also cost a lot more in Russia now, and salary increases will not help since the value of the rouble itself is in decline and will get worse. It is not necessary to go to a country to do an economic analysis of it. Economic analyses are made on data and facts, and we can all see, despite the fact that Putin's propaganda blurs reality.
But this is what the Russians themselves agree to because Russians have had this mentality for centuries - always lying and pretending that things are much better than they actually are.
If a country wages wars and invades other countries and spends 50% of its budget on this (I have also seen such calculations, because Putin's so-called hidden budget was added) at the expense of its citizens, such a country will not get far. Such an approach will sooner or later lead to the collapse of such a country and its economy. And with all their lies and manipulation, Russia and Putin are making it so that no one will want to cooperate or talk to them - only other dictatorships.
The IMF is losing its credibility.
1) IMF accepts Russian stats without question. 2) A Russian tanker will fail and catastrophic leak will occur. Countries will ban them unless they pass international surveys. Baltic and Bosporus bottled.
That’s because they chose Kristalina Georgieva (a Russophile) to serve as IMF Managing Director for a second five-year term?
LOL? So Egypt and Argentina will stop getting loans from them then?
@@phoenix5054 lol?
Who mentioned anything about loans?
@@PappaTom-ub3ht What do you think the IMF does?
Excellent reporting!
US WW2 economy was well managed too. Ration books managed consumer supply and demand which prevented runaway inflation. The extra money workers earned could then be invested in war bonds, further keeping demand and inflation in check
Thanks for explaining.
Right now too, the Russian economy is totally circular-except for oil and gas. Yes it’s producing high volume but of things for the military so they don’t export it because their only customer is the government. I just heard also that next year’s budget was calculated at $70.00 barrel but right now they are below $60.00 and they’ve put bans on many energy exports because of the damage Ukraine has done to refineries. No, the Russian economy is NOT in good shape! Excellent video-thanks a lot!
Very good post. Sharp analysis. Only pending question is - How long time before collapse.
Cool - Nice to see an alternative economic analyses
Unfortunately it can only get worse for the russian people Ukraine keeps bombing there oil so there loosing revenue also they c😂ant win inn a war without fuel.
"Good luck Russia" LMFAO perfect summary mate!
Russia must be spending millions of dollars a day to keep the ruble from crashing in the open market since inflation is almost out of control in russia but the ruble is not crashing with inflation..
Absolutely 💯 correct
Russia give data to imf and imf totally believe in Russian data 😂😂
nice content
Russian arms industry is never going to recover after the poor performance. Chinese arms looking a lot better for the budget consumers. The only good thing that could have came out as positive for Russia was instantly spoiled at the start.
Awesome video
It is true, and it is a photo of them moment. Not tomorrow, or next year. Just one day.
You cannot have a war, without making money to pay for it.
My wife is Russian from Saint Petersburg, Russia, yes things are bad medical inflation, food, inflation, and gasoline prices,
Are crazy in Russia
It is unclear why Russia needs an interest rate of 19% when inflation is around 9%. In a normal economy it is enough if the interest rate is around 5% with inflation of 10%. Inflation must therefore be much higher in Russia.
Giant Potemkin village. The whole government.
Good logic. 👍
China's afraid to build a pipeline to Russia but has no issues with it's B.R.I. with many questionable countries.😂
Great video, based on real facts!
Interesting video thanks
The algorithm brought me here.
Well done!
IMF always was a bit crooked
Good video!
According to one expert on Russia there are now some Russian companies advertising fuel depots for sale for as little as $300,000 even though those fuel depots should be worth millions of dollars if not many millions of dollars.
Of course the reason is that Russian fuel depots have very short life expectancy given Ukrainian attacks on such facilities.
That's certainly not a sign of Russia's economy doing well.
And Putin would just seize them at his convenience.
I get the impression certain parts of Russia are slums. The only part of Russia that is stables Moscow the rest of Russia is suffering.
Moscow and SPB are great. Then there are a dozen of big cities which are doing fine. Everything is bad. Ironically, Moscow and SPB are more liberal and anti-putin centers. Why poor regions are more imperialistic.
Best channel on this app!!
Also: First 👁_👁
“Reparations”
THE FACTORY MUST GROW
Painful weaning from oil
Look into profits from industries like gas, coal or refined oil and you will know a state of Russian economy. Printing rubel is worsening situation.
If you spend a lot in the pub or if you buy a lot in the bank. And it gives return. Bomb don't give return but you spend a lot.
There is no Why! There is Putin,……..
So I dialled up Tradingeconomics ..... Russia Balance of Trade set the range to the last 10 years. And there it is 2022 was an abnormal spike - and current trade balance is pretty much in line with the historical average for the last 10 years. All Positive. They also have a Govt Debt to GDP ratio of 15% ..... whereas most of the "Advanced" West is 100% . They also have a huge sovereign wealth fund . This low-IQ "Analysis" is designed for a low-IQ audience ....
Nice video, tks
Can some explain this to me or tell me what to Google.
If Russia builds a missile for $1m and blows it up in Ukraine then that $1m has gone back into the Russian economy after coming from central reserves.
Some of that money will also go back to the government in the form of taxes.
You obviously cannot launch shells for free so what is going on.
And in this particular case what might a $1m shell cost the government.
I may not have worded things technically correctly but I hope you understand the question concept
They have meanwhile 19% interest rate, since a week or something like that.
no really. In a first week in went to 20% but then Central bank was decreasing it until 7.5% (pretty low for Russian history), since they thought that economy is doing fine. But now they see the inflation rising and they try to stop with rate rise. Doesn't working. The state expenses are too Hight.
@@chatnoir1224 I would say that the first time, in 2022, was pre-emptive and afterwards was to hold it "stable" until russian elections. It's simply not possible to cheat into all eternaty and not we see it in the official numbers, don't ask what the inofficial numbers say.
yeah imf is wrong but random youtuber is right
*SANCTIONS*
Can US be a reliable energy supplier for China? See EU economy per US energy costs...
westoid copium
I wanted to like your video but for your "good luck, russia", you are nit going to get it. I don't wish them luck! Empire has to fail! All supressed nations has to be free! Free Ichkeria! Free Yakut!..
Cope! Cope real hard lol ahahahaha
1. now most of the oil exports from Russia are using gray schemes , to make it harder to track.What does processing have to do with it if you're talking about selling crude oil yourself.The ban on gasoline exports is due to the fact that fuel prices have increased in Europe and private traders began to export a lot of fuel, which led to a shortage, as had already happened before the attack on processing plants.The growth is due to the fact that previously most of the income from sales went abroad, now the money remains in the country and is invested in production to cover needs that were limited by sanctions, which led to an increase in domestic production and an increase in the income of the population.
You're scarfing down Russian propaganda bro, barely any of that is true
@@joshandgrenade Whose reality, your propaganda?Clown.I live in Russia and see everything for myself, factories that used to be idle are now working in three shifts (even those that are not related to military personnel), my salary has increased by 40% over the past year.Thanks to these sanctions, there is a lot of work, everyone's salaries are growing because of this, there are problems, but they are being solved and not critical.
Take your 20 rubels Ivan, molodiets
fuel prices are falling here in the UK - they are actually pretty low now wrt CPI
@@user-vc5zt9ci12 when the sale of fuel was restricted, the purchase prices for fuel (not at gas stations) constantly increased throughout the year.Since then, these restrictions on sales have been decreasing.There was also a gray scheme according to which private traders received compensation from the state and then sold to Europe, making a huge profit, which is why they exported a huge amount of fuel, which began to lead to a shortage.
If my neighbor is saying that he’s doing well, earning more and able to save a lot of money. I’ll just tell him "well good for you" and leave him be. Even though I know he’s lying, I’m not going to debunk him and expose his lies because I don’t want to appear BITTER the way you are appearing here. You must hate Russia so much to make this kind of video.
Has your neighbour taken over part of your house and won't give you it back? Has your neighbour stolen one of your children and you don't know where they are? That is the kind of neighbour Russia is.
The reason for this analysis is that Russia's continued actions in Ukraine impact upon all of us, unlike the actions of your hypothetical neighbour. The sooner this stupid and pointless war ends, the better the world will be. This analysis gives some information to help determine when that may be.
You can debunk lies anywhere without appearing bitter.
But at the least you don't have to go on and help the neighbour spread their lies and convince others to believe him.
Your neighbour never threaten you with nuclear war
Is an economy healthy when it is 35....wait its now almost 36 trillion dollars in dept and ballooning? is an economy healthy when it is overrun my mass illegal immigration, drugs, shootings, stabbings, companies running because of too high operational costs. We aren't going to mention any of "those" countries, but Russia and east Asia is easy clickbait for my western audience so let's talk about stuff that I have no clue what really is going on. remember to like and sub because daddy needs a pay day like on my last "economics" video that was pure nonsense.
Your geopolitical analysis is extremely skewed. Are you even on telegram and know what is happening rather than reading bullshit news?
How is reading fake news from anonymous sources on a network sponsored by Pooteen's oligarhs supposed to make you more knowledgeble? 😂
What do you mean “Russia turning into police state”, it’s already is and have been for a while.