Forecast Discussion - March 22, 2024 - Severe Weather on Tap from the Plains to the Southeast
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- Опубликовано: 2 июн 2024
- For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.
Severe weather is making a return to the central and southern US this weekend into early next week. The SPC has outlined Slight Risk (level 2/5) areas for Sunday (March 24) across Kansas and Oklahoma, as well as Monday (March 25) from east Texas to Mississippi.
On Sunday, a negatively tilted shortwave will make its way into the central and southern Plains, initiating strong surface low development in eastern Colorado. This will foster the development of a dryline, ahead of which modest moisture will return. Antecedent scouring of moisture and a surface low in the Gulf Coast region will delay the onset of moisture return, but upper 40s to low 50s dew points should be able to stream northward ahead of the dryline. Very cold air aloft should compensate for the meager moisture, and plenty of instability for severe storm development should develop. Discrete supercells are initially expected, and a few tornadoes are possible given strong low-level shear.
The threat shifts east for Monday, where we could see a bimodal risk unfold. The main area is expected to take place across the Mid-South ahead of the dryline/cold front. This activity should be more linearly organized with a damaging wind and tornado risk. There could be a separate low-end severe threat that develops across the Midwest if adequate moisture can be maintained ahead of the surface low.
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Contents
0:00 Introduction
1:34 Current analysis
5:46 Sunday's risk
29:32 Monday's risk
38:33 Wrap-up 
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Please Trey if you're sick whether its now or in future take all the time away that you need to your health is what matters! Especially since theres still time before the main event. I hope you get feeling better soon and thank you for doing this despite being sick
Thank you! The last couple days were a little rough, but I’m feeling a lot better today. Pumping the vitamin C so I can be ready for Sunday!
@@ConvectiveChronicles I'm so glad you are doing better! Yes lots of vitamin c and zinc should help you recover faster
Champ for cranking a video out while being sick 💪🏻
Feel better soon! 🔜
Thank you!
I'll be just south (like less than 10mi) of Oklahoma City for a delivery. I've always been FASCINATED by severe weather. Wanted to be a storm chaser since I was VERY young. I'm a truck driver now though. Hoping to see something interesting.
"Under the weather"
Sir, in your case here, I believe that was a *triple*-entendre. Well done!! 🙂
That said, I'm glad you're feeling better. I'm hoping for a speedy recovery!
Thanks as always for the great analysis!!
Hahaha thank you! Definitely feeling much better today after a couple of rough days.
I mean weather does seem to be Trey's significant other sometimes haha (he, um...really seems to like visible satellite shots sometimes).
Hahahaha@@zacharybenson6195
Lots of nasty viruses making the rounds lately, I hope you’re feeling much better quickly! We appreciate you so much!
Thank you! Definitely on the mend; feeling a lot better today.
Hope you feel better! 🤒
Thank you!!
Feel better!
Thank you!
Hi Trey- hope you’re doing better, just wanted to thank you again for the in-depth videos you put out! You & Mitch West really help us understand the mechanics of weather,& during the tornado season this is literally Life Saving! Keep up the great work! ☮️
Thank you so much!
Some marginal ingredients, but a lot of compensating factors. Not a huge amount of CAPE. But there's decent 3CAPE, shear, discreet convective mode, pretty wind profiles and just enough CIN. Could make things very interesting... Patiently waiting in Wichita.
Honestly quite like both days for photogenic storms but glad they aren’t more significant
Seems like a pretty typical setup for some early season photogenic shenanigans
The Primer ejecting around 3/29 to 3/30 setting the stage for the large ejection around 4/1 looks far more interesting already……
Hey Trey. Thanks for awesome forecast like always and I'm waiting how potent this event will be in reality. Last time models underforecast instability and shear to last few hours before event and I think maybe this time we could have some suprise with moisture return maybe ....but we will see.
I hope that you feel better soon. Suplement with D3 vitamin for boosting immunity and eat some garlic and eat/drink ginger...seriously when I start suplementation with d3 ginger and garlic few years back I didn't have any flu or cold or any other common illnes since then😁
Thank you! I’m definitely feeling a lot better today; the last couple days were rough.
Great video Trey 😄, again I'll say it I have learned so much from your videos keep up the good work and hope you feel better soon Trey
Thanks so much! Already feeling a lot better
Your Welcome 😁 and glad you're starting to feel better@@ConvectiveChronicles
I am concerned about high winds for Monday into Tuesday for where I'm at here in northwest Alabama. Some of the models are suggesting up to over 60mph wind gusts, and not thunderstorm related. Definitely will be some power outtages in and around this part of the country.
Yeah, I can definitely see that coming to fruition.
Looking at these morning runs I would drag the 5% tornado risk south below the I-40 corridor.
I'll be out Sunday.
One thing is for sure, no lack of moisture in the Tampa bay area (KTBW). Hope you feel better soon, Trey!! Take care and get some rest...
Thank you, Tal! It’s looking pretty nasty down in south Florida today!
Spring flu’s are horrible. Hope you get better I’ve had two coworkers sick with the flu out this week.
Fingers crossed
Thank you; already starting to feel a lot better today
Hope you feel better soon make sure to take care of yourself.
Thank you! Feeling much better today.
I’m really looking towards 5he system after this one. Way too far away to know for sure, but it could be a big boi.
03-25 03Z NAM model sounding for the OKC area shows 'TOR' as the possible hazzard type, with the HRRR reporting 'MRGL TOR'. Moisture return looks more promising than before, I think - but I'm curious what you think!
It looks to me like the sweet spot is going to be up on the KS/OK border northward, perhaps near the Medicine Lodge area. I think storms will struggle for awhile in drier air until closer to sunset and after when slightly better moisture will be advecting in.
Been so busy today to not get to this till now. This is a quirky system and honestly if the moisture was better we'd be looking at a significant tornado outbreak for the region. Like this has a lot of robust quirks to it but man it could be soooo much more primed than what it is. Dandy shortwave on this too. Regardless, both days are gonna be all hazards, and I will still be curious on how much the storms can stay discrete for the event as a whole on Sunday. I'd still say Woodward OK, would be my play for this event....for now. Good place to at least station.. Oh and the dry plume....I honestly have never ever seen something like that. That's so interesting and it's strange how I'd never seen that before even on other events with S winds like that in that region.
Monday I would not be surprised to see this a a bi-modal set up with one spot in AR/LA and then the other up on the shortwave and the low up in IA/IL/WI.
I feel like you chasing this is still a go for now if you can feel like you'll be up for it.
Yeah, 100% chase for me as of now. Can’t pass up such classic kinematics!
@ConvectiveChronicles really is like a May set up.......just without the top moisture return.
Get well champ
Aren't storm chaser normally under the weather?
Lol, but seriously rest and get better, love your video analysis!
Haha very true! Thank you; feeling a lot better today!
I'm watching the outlook for Tuesday in the southern Indiana / northern Kentucky area. That mid and low level jet on the models looks spicy. Dew points could be the limiting factor for central Indiana unfortunately, but southern looks spicy. CAPE however looks to be the limiting factor but that could change. Interested in hearing your analysis.
Tuesday is all going to depend on how Monday plays out. Model agreement drops off drastically for Tuesday; we’ll have some more clarity over the next couple days.
@@ConvectiveChroniclesBTW man you don’t have time to be sick. Those storms don’t care bro 😂
22:00 I wonder if that cratering dew-point suggested by models might become a de-facto pseudo-dryline or subtle cause for storm-forcing ahead of it?
I doubt it, as there don’t appear to be any resultant alterations to the wind profile (e.g. convergence along it like a typical dryline).
34:00 I wonder if extreme southern Minnesota (maybe Austin, MN to Houston, MN - yes, it sounds very "Texas") will end up getting a tornado. It will be interesting to see if that ends up happening.
We’ll see where the surface low ends up; I have a hunch MN will be too far north but it’s too early to know for sure.
I wonder if either day will play out sorta like 3/5/2022.
At this point, I doubt it, as 3-5-22 had a lot better moisture. But the overall progression of the event looks quite similar.
@@ConvectiveChroniclesHmm, yeah probably not, we'll have to wait and see.