The data, PowerPoints and Google Earth File along with a longer explanation is available here: ryanmcbeth.substack.com/p/oops Based on the analysis, I believe that there is almost no chance (a 0-5% chance) that intelligent life has visited Earth. 1. There seems to be a scarcity of life. 2. Earth may be difficult to detect. 3. The motivation of an alien to travel to Earth may be limited to defense - which means that the only reason we are alive as a species is that we havn't been visted. Special thanks to: Dr. Oisín Creaner, Assistant Professor in Physical Sciences at Dublin City University Professor Marco Thiel, PhD, University of Aberdeen (UK) Andy Silber, PhD PhD Student Robin Mentel, University College Dublin PhD Student Ethan from Northumbria University. PhD Student Roland Timmerman from Leiden Observatory Keane Halls from Bangor University Scott Madison, a “Smarty-Pants” from New Mexico Tech Ryan Frazee, Cosmologist, University of Kansas And Brian Drourr, professional astrophotographer Any mistakes I have made are solely my own. For uncensored video, check out my substack at: ryanmcbeth.substack.com Like my shirts? Get your own at: www.bunkerbranding.com/pages/ryan-mcbeth Want a personalized greeting: www.cameo.com/ryanmcbeth Watch all of my long form videos: ruclips.net/p/PLt670_P7pOGmLWZG78JlM-rG2ZrpPziOy Twitter: @ryanmcbeth Join the conversation: discord.gg/pKuGDHZHrz Want to send me something? Ryan McBeth Productions LLC 8705 Colesville Rd. Suite 249 Silver Spring, MD 20910 USA
edit: also en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chirality_(chemistry) the topic of chirality and the "handedness" of the molecules making up life and food sources, is fascinating too
Our galaxy is mind boggling large. Its about 100,000 light-years across with around 400 billion stars each with its own collection of planets and there are art last 200 billion and perhaps as many as 2 trillion galaxies in the known universe. The sheer scale means that it's a virtual certainty that not only does life exist, it must be fairly common and Intelligent life can't be too uncommon in this vastness. However, the distances involved are even more astonishing. The nearest star is over 4 light years away and the next nearest galaxy is is 2.5 million light years. The fastest man made object is the Parker space probe which is traveling at 350,000 miles per hour or 563,270.4 kilometers per hour. At these speeds it would take over 8,000 years to travel to the closest star, proxima centauri, which is 4.37 light years from earth. Even if we were to travel at a significant percentage of the speed of light, it would still take decades to travel just to the next star let alone anywhere else in the galaxy. Not only are the distances so vast, but the estimated age of the universe, at 14 billion years, is also mind numbing. We've existed for only the tiniest fraction of that time and only been space going for the last few decades. So consider this, for us to meet intelligent aliens they have to not only exist in relative close proximity to us but they also have to exist at a time that overlaps with our existence and have reached technological advancement enough to get here. So, while there is almost certainly other intelligent life in the universe, even if it were reasonably common, the odds of us overlapping in both time and space with an alien civilization capable of visiting is vanishingly small.
@@lenger1234 A lot of current thinking is that life as we know it is a lot more rare than those statistics you're thinking of would lead you to believe. Just the folding of chromosomes in a particular manner to allow intelligence is extremely unlikely - even in a universe of planets. Our planet/sun combo is also way more rare than we thought even 20 years ago. Add to that the theory Ryan mentions, and it's entirely possible that life - especially intelligent life - may be ultra rare.
@@brentm9848 but there's also concepts such as the anthropic principle which, depending on if you're in the weak or strong camp, indicate these studies about life being rare are likely flawed. It should be noted that an often-understated answer to the Fermi Paradox is that sapient life is perfectly abundant across the universe and we just lack sufficient understanding to identify their signatures.
I like Bill Waterson's take in Calvin and Hobbes -- "Sometimes I think the surest sign that intelligent life exists elsewhere in the universe is that none of it has tried to contact us."
how could a species incapable of society without monopolization of violence comprehend interstellar friendship? if I was an alien race capable of watching us evolve and seeing what we've done I wouldn't contact until we've figured our shit out either. the fact that scientific exploration and discovery was dismissed as clout chasing in this argument assumes an extra terrestrial society has the same perspective on recourses as we do. if their technology has advanced beyond consumption, and could perhaps be truly renewable, a concept easily conceivable in our current reality, fusion exists, than perhaps we really do just need to put the gun down.
“Space is big. You just won't believe how vastly, hugely, mind-bogglingly big it is. I mean, you may think it's a long way down the road to the chemist's, but that's just peanuts to space.” ― Douglas Adams, The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy
This. I try to tell people that it’s just not feasible that this would happen. Unless aliens live to be like 15 million years old or something & a 2 million year, one way trip isn’t a big deal.
@@beepboop204 Time. That's a good one. Why is it that when you have 5 minutes left in your work day and you look at the clock again only one minute has passed? And when your alarm clock rings and you roll over to get 5 more minutes of rest you end up 20 minutes behind schedule?
@@goldenageofdinosaurs7192 What if they travel interdimensional or fold space? If they use gravity drive, they can also alter time. If this is happening, we need to think outside the box to understand this phenomenon.
Mad respect for Ryan going way out of his normal area of interest and doing a bang-up job of analyzing the likelihood of aliens, a subject that I spend way too many hours watching vids about and thinking about.
He is still a human sizing the universe to its own self .,size is a very limiting factor for a human .The person creating a universe is a of different size or not limited by size ,size is our jail .
Alien life is already visiting our planet as the UFO hearing in Congress has proven on Wednesday. We are not alone - just on the 2004 Tic Tac UFO encounter alone.
It's not just Mickey D's ice cream machine. My local Burger Royalty finger food emporium claims its machine is under maintenance so often, I keep wondering if it can qualify for replacement under the State's Lemon Law. This cuts down on the number of options if and when an alien should arrive and say "Take me to your (functioning) ice cream machine."
The chances of other heavier elements being present in a Star system while carbon isn’t kinda raises some questions as to why that would be. Especially since we have detected the elements we consider necessary for life in interstellar clouds, along with organic molecules. The building blocks are all over the place. It’s really just a question of how common abiogenesis is, or how likely is some past civilization to be willing and able to seed life throughout the cosmos.
Ryan, your video is the most entertaining and imaginative presentation of this issue/question I've ever seen. Very, very, very clever. Even outstanding. And I agree with your conclusion. Probably because we are both former military. Military people assess and think in terms of threat and mission survivability. However... Some observations: is it REALLY a proper assumption that creatures with strong "religious" beliefs would not be highly motivated to evangelize? To reveal their truth. Or to destroy those who do not believe? If that religion, like Christianity or Islam believed in a universal objective metaphysics, Creator, moral code...why would that be like talking to a tree frog? As an intelligence guy...you need to reassess your own assumptions. I don't think you appreciate the POWER of religious belief. I am not saying aliens cannot be vastly more intelligent, but that hardly makes humans mere tree frogs. Humans are sentient and capable of pretty cool things. In other words, Ryan, do not dismiss "religion" as none scientific gobbledygook. Religion, the acknowledgement that creatures are not the Creator is the gigantic looming issue and question of existence. There is no larger question or compelling appetite to understand. Remember that religion is the undergirding assumption about reality itself including science. That belief is everything. You may dismiss it because you "believe" in "reason" and science. But science and reason have limits. And pushing limits is the very nature of exploration and power projection. To dismiss this fact of existence is to proceed at your peril. I don't think you appreciate the magnitude of religion in the foundation of consciousness itself: civilization, science, thought, art, law, quest, war. Whether human or otherwise. Just a caveat... A very important one.
A planetary Mc Donalds, with the ice cream machine broken due to stubbornly poor design, also on fire and infested by an intelligent parasite determined to make itself extinct.
@@johnsnyder3443I would disagree with your critique. As Ryan points out, the only reasonable way for life on Earth to have been detected is through the presence of Oxygen, which on Earth is produced exclusively by non-sentient life. More prominent traces of CO2, Sulphur, or H2O can be written off as evidence of volcanic activity. It wouldn't be until detection of enriched Uranium or Plutonium that sentient life becomes likely. That assumes they even notice the Oxygen or Uranium through the thick Nitrogen atmosphere and magnetic field. Realistically, I think Ryan is right to say that it's too unlikely.
Got help us when they pick up the radio and television signals from the 1930s and start speaking German very enthusiastically saying they are on their way soon...
That would be both cool and funny. But why would they know morse code and why would they know and use our alphabet and language? It would seem that they KNOW "who dis" if they're using our language and alphabet. Unless, of course, ALL alien life forms really do speak English...
I saw an interview with an astronomist who made the observation that if space were the size of the Pacific Ocean, we've looked at an area the size of a glass of water for life. If an advanced civilization had the chance to explore 10000x more space than us, they've looked through a dozen barrels of water. Out of the Pacific Ocean.
And as long as we have to assume that the speed of light is a definite barrier, it's hardly possible to get much beyond that. Even if there are advanced species observing earth, they may merely see it as it was millions of years ago.
@@senatorjosephmccarthy2720 Two things, first, OP specified that we've searched the "glass of water" for life, not that that glass is all we've looked at. Second, you're right, there's a reason that when people talk about how many galaxies, or how big space is, they qualify it by saying "in the observable universe" because there is a finite distance that we can observe. That distance is mind bogglingly big, but to bring it back to the ocean analogy, we haven't yet seen the whole ocean, we're just comparing the area we've looked for life to the area we know exists, we don't know how big the ocean actually is.
@@seanabbott798the scientists spoke prematurely since he doesn’t know the size of the universe. Just as Ryan and all of the naysayers, your thought process is quite logical, but recent US airforce encounter with UFO still needs to be explained kinetically. Without logical explanation of the recorded object your logical discussion is wrong explanation of the UFO sighting and to our highly trained pilots. Low probability doesn’t mean 0. I don’t kill new primitive life I find in nature, and our current human logic doesn’t encompass all logics in another 100 years. I didn’t even got into quantum theory and multiverse.
As a astrophysics and Fermi paradox enthusiast who could talk about that topic for days without pause, my first reaction at the beginning of your video was "Oh, no, here it comes". How many errors would I find, despite knowing how well informed you always explain many other topics? Well - none, dude! Awesome work! Special props for the phosphorus topic, this is NOT well known, even in the "Fermi-Paradox"-sphere! You did your homework, sir! Half way through I was already expecting, that you will give special thanks to a bunch of astrophysicists. You don't disappoint!
What about the possibility of UAPs being interdemensional? That point seems to have been completely ignored. I'm not saying this to be a troll but because I really am curious and feel like this should have at least been addressed before almost totally dismissing the idea of UAPs being here.
@@Britt-r3r What if they travel by worm hole? What if they probe our anuses? You can pose an infinite what if scenarios, it doesn't make this so called testimony more credible.
@@Britt-r3r What do you mean by "interdimensional"? Once you realize that you can't actually define this in terms of known physics, why not replace the term with "magic".
This guy has a knack for picking up information and understanding it well enough to create analogies for it. He could be a lawyer for sure. He isnt an astrophysicist or a chemist but he really got a lot of the right information to analyze this problem. Ive read a lot about all of this information as well and he reallt hit the nail on the head about what things are problems and what we are looking for to get the answers we need. Im impressed.
The critical misgiving with this logic, is that it assumes that another species shares our logic. Not a criticism of yourself, but I do think Humans are far too egotistical when it comes to the infallibility of our own logic.
First, logic is not just thinking or philosophical. Logic has a mathematical foundation, as originally codified by Bertrand Russell. Any intelligence advanced enough to travel the vastness of space will understand mathematics, as it is as universal as laws of physics, chemistry and biology. Second, there is a metric called the Kardashev Scale that quantifies the level of technical advancement of a species and civilization based on its ability to utilize energy. For example, a Type 2 civilization can completely harness the energy and resources of its host star in its solar system. This could be through mega structures akin to Dyson Spheres or Ring Worlds, for example. No matter, these types of objects would also be signatures for advanced intelligent life. Incidentally, the scale arguably can go to a Level 5 civilization, which assumes the existence of Multiverses. Imagine what god-like powers beings who can control and harness the energy of entire universes would have, and by extension what need they would have to visit earth. It would be akin to going to an ant hill in Africa to watch the intestinal bacteria in the ant guts. They could no more communicate with us - let alone have us understand them - than we could do the same with gut bacteria.
If they made it to space, their capacity for logic is self evidence. Maybe they have found us and are studying a primitive society taking it's very first steps in to chemical powered space flight.
Good analysis of this one scenario. I’m suprised there was no caveat about that. There are others that have nothing to do with traveling vast distances.. such as the person he used in his graphic. Grusch and his best guess based on what he saw in the documents. What am I supposed to think with the buzz word “misinformation” in the title, and the a very narrow approach to this topic. Very lacking…. Anyway, if time is fundamental to the theory, you’re never ever going to there. Similar to his distance from KS to Biloxi, if he can’t phrase this concept then he is leaving a lot off the table. Ask a physicist about time lol.
Alien life is already visiting our planet as the UFO hearing in Congress has proven on Wednesday. We are not alone - just on the 2004 Tic Tac UFO encounter alone...
It's a great example of how humans can't get away from emotional thinking. We assume others think like us. I personally would think curiosity as a reason would be nearly 100% whereas defence say 10% because I don't work in defence so don't have a bias to think that way. It's impossible for us to know what another alien will value
Haha I thought the same my youtube is 70% aliens, 29% Ukraine, 1% fishing videos lol. I hope he keeps up with the UAP/alien videos too. It's like he read my mind. He didn't account for one thing.... we don't know what we don't know yet. There's other elements and physics that we don't yet know, this fact makes pretty much anything possible. Yes the universe is huge and spread out so much, this fact doesn't mean anything, it's clear they are here. We almost all know someone who's seen one. My mom saw a ufo that took up the whole sky in 1968 over for knox. I think the zoo hypothesis is the most likely.
Your analogies are really well done. This is really thorough and accessible. You're turning into a science RUclipsr as well as an investigative journalist.
He is great, but this is not really journalism. This is an expert in a field applying his skills and showing us. I studied journalism for 3 years and this isn't really what we learn (although some journalists are of course experts)
No. RUclipsrs should not be allowed to see simp comments like this. He's turning into a guy who thinks he's an expert in everything because he's an expert in one thing. This video could be about any topic and the way he's approaching the topic is bad in so, so many ways. But he'll never figure it out because of the standard youtube piles of praise commenters like this.
I don't agree with this statement. To me being alone in the universe is unsettling because it's up to humanity to keep life going. Not being alone opens up new possibilities.
There is almost certainly life out there. Problem is, the speed of light rule is a hard and fast barrier to travel between stars, and given the distances involved, it is unlikely that we will ever be visited by aliens, or vice versa.
I would remind of Clarke’s Three Laws ( Arthur C.Clarke) When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong. The only way of discovering the limits of the possible is to venture a little way past them into the impossible. Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.
@@johnjones_1501The universe is also really really old. The sun might be a fourth generation star -- which means the original star went supernova and turned into dust, slowly coalesced into another star, which also went supernova etc for up to three complete cycles before our sun was formed.
@@JohnWilliamNowakbut primitive AI in 3 years time can search every McDonalds for a specific ice cream flavor under 5 seconds. Ryan and all of the naysayers, your thought process is quite logical, but recent US airforce encounter with UFO still needs to be explained kinetically. Without logical explanation of the recorded object your logical discussion is wrong explanation of the UFO our highly trained pilots saw. Low probability doesn’t mean 0. I don’t kill new primitive life I find in nature, and our current human logic doesn’t encompass all logics in another 100 years. I didn’t even got into quantum theory and multiverse.
This excercise was awesome. Very good attempt at defending an argument with sound reasoning and scientific logic. I really enjoyed it. I think it is exactly how these topics should be approached. What you just explained is what we know and understand based on our current scientific level of development and the evidence it provides. Now, that doesn't rule out the chances that our understanding and knowledge is limited, but that should not come as a surprise to anybody because that's exactly how science works.
Bravo to you and your many contributors. This is the most measured and lucid examination of the complexity and perils of interstellar travel I can remember
I think the biggest thing about Grush's explanation that makes it fall apart for me is that he claims we have been reverse engineering alien technology in order to make our advances in military tech, but this does not at all line up with how military and broader general technological advancements have been made. Rather than being made in sudden leaps and bounds as we deciper and reverse engineer extremely advanced tech, we see technologies that were first theorized decades ago being put into the prototyping stage, and then after further decades of development finally getting put into full production. Modern advancements like advanced nano-scale computer chips and adaptive cycle engines are things that were theorized in independent academic papers 30+ years ago and are only now starting to put into practice.
if you actually watched or read the testimony you would know grusch claims the opposite, that we have been trying for 80 years and still cannot reverse engineer anything
I heard that the wire that goes back to shape with heat and the invisible material at certain angles came from alien tech. It doesnt have to be crazy wild technology, just a few tips and hints to get material science to the finish line would count as help from crashed UFOs.
@@paddington1670 100 percent false you can trace the patents and development of all these things, they are 100 percent human invention , grusch said there has been no successful reverse engineering
One question that needs to be addressed which isn't with Drake's equation is: Given some percentage chance of life existing elsewhere in the galaxy, and given the vast amounts of time involved at a galactic scale, what is the chance that life has evolved elsewhere _at the same time_ as us.
What are the chances that it's not alien life but terrestrial life. It may not be terrestrial life from now it could be terrestrial life from the future or the past. And it sounds a lot like extra dimensional technology. Think of the tardis bigger on the outside is the tardis actually moving through space when it travels or is it simply changing the location of its portal.
You're not the first to bring up that fact. One scientist brought up a scenario that Earth receives a signal from a distant planet thousands of years ago, Earth responds & once the Earth response reaches that planet. All life on that planet is dead due to the parent star has died or some cataclysms occurred hundred of years ago on that planet that wiped out all life. All that Earth finally achieve interstellar travel, & all we find are abandoned ruins of dead civilization. Or they detect us, & sent a scientific expedition toward Earth, takes a couple of hundred of years, & by the time they arrive on Earth. The human race is extinct due to a climate catastrophe or simply wiped ourselves out from a nuclear war.
Time actually is not such a factor here. If an intelligent species gains access to FTL technologies, there’s no denying its pretty much here to stay now. An extinction event of cosmic proportions would need to occur to wipe them out, and so life from the past is far more likely than more recent life closer to our age, as they have a boost in gaining this survivability advantage, while us terrestrials are at the mercy of nature. So really it’s more a function of their mere distance from us because of how hard detecting a civilization like us is.
Ryan, you've been just an incredibly welcome breath of fresh air. Your content is so very well researched and explained without any level of bias. You always apply critical and reasonable thinking, and this is something that is sadly missing from society. Keep up the excellent work!
Damn that was one hell of a video 😍This is the link you send to those friends that just took this hearing on face value, and decided we have been visited and they crashed into McDonalds .
time needs to be added to the alien equation; not only do aliens need to form a civilization, but they have to do it at the same time as humans. those are big odds
My initial draft covered time, and the evolution window between when life develops, and when the local star explodes. What I realized was that, since we really didn’t know how long it might take for life to develop outside of earth, it’s not something we could speculate on.
I believe we aren't the first... nor the last society to develop... there are societies that could be a million years advanced of us and likewise there are societies still bubbling in a pond somewhere figuring this living thing out...
The Human race has only had Electricity and modern science for what 120 ? Now imagine an Alien race that is 1000 to 10,000 years in advance of us and have super science to travel faster than the speed of light = We dont have to imagine because Alien life is already visiting our planet as the UFO hearing in Congress has proven on Wednesday.
I tried to watch this video (or rather, the original) a few min after it was published and it wouldn't load. Glad to see it's back up! And love your content! (I'm also a bit of a nerd, and studying to be an analyst, so your content is right up my alley, and I've learned a lot!)
@@RyanMcBethProgramming I can see the difference in run times 😅 Not gonna lie - I was kind of excited for a 41 minute video. 28 is fine though! Love your content!
There is something people also tend to forget: the intelligence barrier. Sure, life can exist, but the vast majority of life that does and did exist(that we know of) cannot bring itself to a civilization level. In fact, for the vast majority of evolutionary history, high intelligence was not that useful when compared to the immense energy investment cost that it required; and therefore you didn’t see it that often in nature. Life on this earth is 3.7 billion years old(multicellular life being only 700 million years). The last common ancestor between humans and the great apes was only around 7 million ago. 3.7 billion years of different species, and nothing with the level of civilizational complexity has ever even come close to us.
To those interested in the topic, check out von neumann probes. We often make the assumption that organic beings would make the trip to earth in these scenarios.
Right, I mean we already sent unmanned probes out of our solar system, and have autonomous probes exploring alien planets in our own system. What will we be able to do in a couple more decades if we were to put real effort behind it? What could we do in a few centuries?
There’s no reason for self replicating probes to not also create biological clones of beings to interact with other intelligent biological species, and those clones being considered as disposable as the automated probes themselves.
Ryan... I've watched a LOT of you vids & really appreciate them. The first post was extra special for me. I already read this video (text) yesterday & knew where this was going. However, seeing into your raw work was its own treat (I'm not sure you wanted us to see it, but *I* appreciated it). SO much behind the scenes work goes into your polished product. Ok, enough rambling from me. I'm sure you know what I'm saying. Here's a donation that is long overdue. Please keep us informed with your great videos. Thank you, Ryan! - David
Thank you, that was brilliant - and brilliant in every way! I loved the science, the logical analysis, the very funny, totally accessible and absolutely appropriate analogies, and the excellent way you cited your scientific supporters at the end. You’re changing the zeitgeist ! Thanks for this, and for all your other videos. Very best wishes. (Btw, great to know that the President has your phone number… 😊)
Ryan, you have a way of making very technical and complex subject matter and breaking it down in a way for us that aren't experts understand easily. I like to consider myself intelligent and educated, but I'm not sure I could have understood your analysis easier by any other means, and all in 30 mins. Keep up the great work. We're all watching 😀
Every video you make is so well made. All of the research and effort that you put into them is clear and I enjoy every second. Also as an aspiring journalist it’s great to see an independent journalist reaching this many people this quickly.
Always great content. Just listened to this while putting together a pretty cool sandbox for my kids. Keep doing your thing sir. Much appreciation for your channel 🇺🇸🫡
The thing that personally frustrates me about UFO enthusiasm is that 'alien' means the exact same thing as 'magic made X thing happen here.' It's not useful because aliens are magic for all intents and purposes, just cloaked in the language of popular scientism. If you can say 'an unknown technology can do X' and X can be anything, than the claim is the same as saying 'this is possible because an elf could do it.' This is why many UFO-proponents respond to this reality the same way the fanatically religious do, 'how dare you question my belief.'
The thing that personally frustrates me about vaccine enthusiasm is that 'vaccine' means the exact same thing as 'magic made X disease gone' It's not useful because vaccines are magic for all intents and purposes, just cloaked in the language of popular scientism. If you can say 'a new vaccine can cure X' and X can be anything, than the claim is the same as saying 'this is possible because an elf could do it.' This is why many vaccine-proponents respond to this reality the same way the fanatically religious do, 'how dare you question my belief.' See how that sounds? This could apply to literally any group of people with vocal beliefs. And no, I'm not an anti-vaxxer.
@@chrisblashill7265 Right. It's a cool idea but it runs into a few issues. Sure, I buy the premise that it's possible to mimic what a lower tech person would see as "magic" using "sufficiently advanced technology". But sometimes the best solution to a problem is not the magic solution. Why would alien craft in our atmosphere look like blurs of light when they could be ordinary aerodynamic craft? Even better, they could disguise as meteors or birds or other natural or human-created phenomena. What's the point of making technology that seems like magic when that is rarely the optimal solution? Technology, no matter how advanced, will also eventually run into the constraints of physics. I'm pretty confident that the laws of thermodynamics, causality, and gravity are not going to be violated by any technology, no matter how advanced. So when one of these UAPs suddenly change direction, where does the energy come from for that change? Where does the waste heat go? Maybe some people consider that a small-minded attitude but I will continue to believe in the forward flow of time and the reality of mass and energy, thanks.
I have one major takeaway. If we ever run across aliens out there, we better make damn sure they never learn where Earth is. By the way, Stephen Hawking came to the same conclusion. So, Ryan, I'd say you probably nailed it.
There is a comic book of all things that point that out, when two starships meet in intersteller space and the human ship trys to run, the Captain orders a change of course and explanies "Do you wnat to show them how to get to earth?". the coimc was a backup stories to Magnus Robot fighter around 1964.
I remember reading a short story about a human ship in deep space that meets an alien ship in deep space. Both have the same objective: to report back the existence of another intelligent species without giving away data that could be used to find the home world and wipe their own species out. After some period of tense standoff, each crew removes all tracking instrumentation and data regarding the location of their inhabited territory from the ship, and then they swap ships.
@@Delgen1951 They do this in the Halo series too. They have a thing called the "Cole Protocol" where they do a bunch of random slip-space jumps (hyperspace in halo) away from Earth or Earth colonies before they head back to Earth or anywhere important. Meanwhile on REAL Earth we're beaming our location out 24/7 lol.
Isn't that the basis of some science fiction movie (maybe independence day)? Aliens hear the signal sent out by aricebo (the one carl sagan championed), so they come here to wipe us out?
Excellent video ! I do like when you do a long form one like this obv with a lot of prep and research which makes it really interesting to watch. I also love your self made adverts for your “merch”. Extremely funny and well made. Good luck with the ongoing new career doing this stuff full time.
Couple of points: - Resource allocation depends on scale: at $58k trip to Everest is a once in a life time thing for most people, but if Bezos lives another 80 years, he could fund an expedition every second and not run out of money. So if you have the resources of a dozen solar systems at your disposal, suddenly sending a ship to every mildly interesting world isn't that expensive. -We keep statistics on everything: We keep statistics on how many mcFlurries are functioning. We track what elements are where in the galaxy. You think we wouldn't place sensor stations of various kinds out to every single world in the galaxy if we could? - We really like spying on our neighbors: international diplomacy is built on espionage. Hell, we'll happily spy on our closest allies, just to be safe. If we think we can get away with it, we spy. Presumably, if we were aware of a primitive alien civilization on another world, we'd spy on them. - Tech grows exponentially: and we don't know where that process stops. There may be simple solutions to all sorts of things we think are hard, radically reducing the costs.
In order to spy on someone, we would have to send something there. How long will that take to get there? Voyager 1 would take 75000 years to reach Alpha Centauri, the closest star and if I am not mistaken that is the fastest or close to the fastest craft we have ever made. So there is a time issue as well - what do you and I care if our descendants in 75000 (+ 3 years to send the answer back to Earth) find something really cool to spy on at Alpha Centauri? Are we gonna fund it?
To which I say, how do you account for time? Time to traverse the universe and return back to where they came from. With findings to report back to their own beings. Unless a one way trip is all that matters, considering they live thousands upon thousands of light years (trillions even?). Or do they call home their interactions with us. And if so, are they not limited by speed of light because otherwise their own civilizations would have died many, many times over before getting word back. And let’s just say that they are much closer to us than we can imagine. Our own galaxy, the odds of that are beyond astronomical. With that vastness of JUST our observable universe, that would be like in this vastness, lightning hitting at the same place (within the tiniest span of measurement man can conjure) and at the exact, exact same time (after all, our species has not been around that long). It seems incomprehensible.
The problem is that we just don’t know enough it could be that there is intelligent life with godlike powers like the Q collective but it could also be that we are alone in the universe so based on the data we have it is just not conceivable that aliens have already been too earth. Edit for spelling errors.
We have to remember that the term unidentified flying object does not refer to alien, just because that flying thing doesn’t have a designation and look like a shape we expect to see doesn’t mean it’s from another planet
Also it might not even be an object. Thus the term "uap" (unidentified aerial phenomenon) has replaced "UFO" in investigative circles to account for complex mirages.
@hoej Unless you're talking about the handful that were picked up on multiple radars and thermal targeting systems while also being seen visually. A mirage doesn't cause that, an object does.
@mrdlewis22 Well certainly, and my perspective on that we only have enough to maybe narrow down the list of reasonable hypotheses and improve the investigative direction but we currently don't have enough to come to a conclusion. People are wanting to skip the uncertainty phase and jump to a conclusion but we just don't have enough for that. We can't say it's aliens or off-world drones or something but we certainly should take the possibility seriously while understanding that it could easily be something a rival government has developed, or something we have developed and have kept compartmentalized away from the public and even most military personnel (just having a top-secret clearance doesn't get you access to anything labeled "top-secret," there's a lot more to gaining access and we keep things even from ourselves all the time). I'm comfortable taking several possibilities seriously and then leaving it inconclusive more info comes in to where we can confirm a hypothesis.
The often overlooked criteria is that this alien civilization also has to exist at the same time as us. Not to be all doom and gloom, but lets say there is an alien civilizatin 125 light years away that detects this incredibly weak and scattered radio signal, there is a good chance that we wont be here by the time they arrive, between overpopulation, running out of our VERY limited resources (I am including famine here), global warming, and war. Another great video Ryan :)
If the could get here... its probably because, 1. They have tremendously more advanced technology than us and could travel light years in a blink and 2. They not carbon based life forms...? Our science community always consider that life elsewhere will be human or carbon based.... arrogant views.
Next he needs to do a video to dispell all the "The world's going to end from __________(fill in the blank with whatever scare tactic they're using as of late)" nonsense they're constantly coming up with to get people to fund research departments. Global warming? Well if you're old enough you'll know that in the late 70's a bunch of the "climate experts" said the next ice age was just beginning after we had a couple of particularly nasty winter's, that was good for funding some university research departments for at least 5 years (God forbid they run out of money and then have to get job's in the private sector where they'd actually have to produce results from their work, starting to catch on yet?) Just off the top of my head here's a short list of all the things that "experts" have said was going to wipe us out since the 70's (unless of course we fund their research departments, still not catching on yet?); Next ice age Acid rain Ozone depletion Nuclear holocaust Killer Bee's (yes, seriously, they actually had all kinds of knee jerk reactive people convinced that killer bee's were going to wipe us out within the next 10 years, they even made a movie called The Swarm that Henry Fonda, Michael Caine, Olivia DeHavilland and other big name stars were in, just like nowadays how all the latest stars are in global warming catastrophe movies, still not catching on yet?) And now it's global warming they've got people convinced will wipe us out, how long did Al Gore say? In 20 years? 30 YEARS AGO!!!
@@MarcosElMalo2Please...unicorns don't fart, too classy for it, doesn't stop Bigfoot from always saying "it was the unicorn" everytime. Always makes the pixies giggle.
Ryan, it is so refreshing to hear a clear, concise, and cogent discussing of this. You sir, are a genius because you make so most anyone can understand! Thanks sarge!
All of the core material I already knew, but the presentation is unlike anything I have ever seen or heard. I believe anyone can learn anything, but to truly understand, to be an expert you must be able to teach others. Only the best can teach anyone. Thank you Ryan for making us a little bit smarter.
"I think it is much more likely that the reports of flying saucers are the result of the known irrational characteristics of terrestrial intelligence, rather than the unknown, rational efforts of extraterrestrial intelligence." -- Richard Feynman
I have been waiting for your take on this, you’re one of the only people I trust on this sort of thing (especially as I’m too lazy to keep up with everything and analyse it myself 😂)
Imagine there's smoke in your house, so you sit down and run the numbers on what the chances are your house is on fire at any given moment. That's what this video is doing - it's not an assessment of any of the evidence that's being presented
AWESOME ANALYSIS!!!! Great points, can't imagine the work you put into this and great work being concise, im sure you could make an entire series of videos
Very impressive analysis. I'll opine that our galactic neighbors more likely resemble cyanobacteria than Little Gray Men. And that Warp Drive seems to require large quantities of Unobtainium. And, it still violates causality.
I'm surprised you waited until nearly the end of the video to discuss the Drake Equation as part of your analysis. You certainly touched on some elements of it earlier that I was wondering if it'd ever come up at all. It certainly reinforces your point of how remote the chances are of visitation from ET's. This video was well done in reaching beyond your usual base audience and a refreshing change of usual topics. Nice to see several sciences touched on in this, as well. Great work!
When it comes to understanding the universe and figuring out how life started we are cavemen looking at a smartphone.Simply because we are here based on all the odds Ryan explained anything is possible in the universe.We are so arrogant we just started flying 100years ago
Ryan McBeth hears about aliens, sighs, rolls up his sleeve and gets cracking on a 5 minute PhD in Astronomy and Astrophysics, and ends up producing a video with as much quality of content, and coherent explanation of concepts as could be seen in Kurzgesagt's videos. What an outstanding effort to make this video, keep up the great work Dr. McBeth!
So he is an astro physicist? Interesting tho. I do not think we have been visited. Why would super intelligent life travel billions of light years to visit this loser world, and all of the craft cited are so vague and varied. The congressional hearings were just dumb.
@Ryan McBeth One of the things that bothered me about this process is the fact that the guy worked in Military Intelligence. When people hear that, they think about James Bond. Given your work in ISR, it might be nice for you to do a video describing what MI people do.
It's also funny that people are willing to believe every single high ranking person in the government and military and likely the government and military of every other country is lying but this guy, with no evidence, is telling the truth. Especially when the truth is that there are a bunch of aliens here who want to stay unseen but don't care about their maned ships crashing. The aliens are always a prop, never a player.
Thanks, Ryan. Very interesting to listen to this; I hold your opinion in very high regard so I am glad you made a video on this topic! Thorough and insightful as always.
I think I figured out why I like you. You're highly intelligent but at the same time you can see the comedic part of life. Also your real, you do not try to portray yourself as something that you're not. Take it or leave it this is me. I respect that.
Something can however be close enough to zero to be practically zero. If something is hovering that close to zero while another explanation is much more likely, neither actually backed by objective evidence then it's only logical to place more weight on the more probable than the exceptional. Afterall, extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. There is already better evidence explaining the "videos" as misinterpreted videos of planes and birds filmed in infrared from another plane traveling at High velocity with enough embedded data jn the video itself for triangulation of the said objects speed and altitude to be determined and that its not extraordinary by any means, the real question is the motivation to both release these videos without the correct context and to actually "misinterpret" the actual context so erroneously (or fraudulently?) while providing nothing but hearsay for the extraterrestrial narrative while actually contradicting the embedded data in the videos in the process.
If there is intelligent life outside of Earth then it could be super far ahead of us technologically that we can not even begin to imagine imagine showing a caveman a 3D printer or trying to explain AI they could never be able to imagine that
I once heard an analogy that compared it to us trying to communicate to an ant colony. We know the ants are there, but they are so insignificant to us that we dont even bother.
Perhaps their is intelligent life. Maybe they are superior or even far far superior. Doesn’t mean they would travel at all. Perhaps they are content where they are. Maybe they are not as intelligent as us. Maybe grazers and nothing more. Maybe they are about as intelligent as we are. We like to think we’re not alone but maybe we are alone. It’s all probability.
But what if the aliens were silicon based ,not carbon . Think of these aliens as computer AI type. Humans view distance and speed in the construct in time. The time it takes to travel from point x to y. Our limitations are based on our lifespan. If we traveled at 10 % of the speed of light the closest star would take 43 years,an entire adult lifespan. But what if our lifespan was in the thousands of years. A 43 year voyage with a 43,000 year lifespan is 1/1000 . Aliens could easily transverse space. I'm just hoping these aliens are explorers or lost. The reality that they are the highway engineers that are planning an off ramp thru our planet would be a sad ending. Thanks for the fish!
If there is something out there with the capabilities to do what the tick tack can do, if we believe commander David Fravor as I do and we are broadcasting our location out into space why wouldn't they come check it out? He testified before congress that what he saw was not bound by the laws of physics as we understand them.
This.Was.Excellent. I usually don't waste time with speculative topics such as this but this presentation was so well done. Probably the best breakdown I have ever heard on the topic.
nice/interesting. It is probably the worst breakdown I have heard on this topic. He did do an awful lot of speculating, he was thinking inside the box though and this only starts to get interesting/make sense when you think outside of the box
Very good analysis! One thing is there might be facts we’re missing which could change those equations drastically. You can’t base anything off of vague unknowns, but it’s worth considering. There’s still alot of physics we’re not quite sure about.
@@rodrigofaria4498This is always my answer when asked what I think. Yes as far as we can tell, life requires the basics that Ryan mentioned, but we cannot see the whole universe, nor is what we are seeing current. I think preppie forget that if something is X number of light years away, what we observe (assuming we aren’t missing some parts of physics), is X years ago, or more. Time is a function of distance here, and visa versa, at least for us. At the end of the day, my answer is we simply don’t know what we don’t know, and I know less than that. However, based on the size of the universe and the odds, I suspect life exists in some form, whether we recognize it as life or not, and whether “it has happened yet” (based on the speed that information travels to us, and the distance it is from us) or not. But for now, I’ll keep living my own life, since there’s not much I can do either way.
Another consideration. Why would the aliens hide from us? It would be like humans hiding from the tree frogs. The aliens with the ability of interstellar travel would have no interest in a bunch of apes who wear clothes and who drive around in primitive metal boxes. They'd do whatever it is that they came here to do, and not give us a second thought. Except maybe swat us away if we became too much of a pest.
Well, sometimes a biologist will need to hide themselves from an animal they're studying to observe its natural behaviors. If we *are* in a 1 in 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 situation where super advanced alien scientists are observing us, we would probably never notice it. (Which also means they would probably not leave a bunch of their junk around for us to find.) To me, the most likely way we would have semi-contact with an alien civilzation is with some sort of ancient, dilapidated drone sent by a long-dead species. Something like, say, Oumuamua. (Even that is a super stretch.)
Life, so far, appears quite rare in the universe if an advanced species found us, I believe it would be high on their list to at least send probes observe us more closely -- notwithstanding issues of covering such vast distances.
In this scenario, they’re not worried we can hurt them. They’re worried that we’re bait in a trap constructed by a more technologically advanced species.
Really good video, and a good take on the topic. There is one thing that I don't find usually addressed - whenever a alleged observation of an alien craft occurs, it is practically always a small craft, and if crew is seen, it is just a few individuals. We have not made an observation of any larger craft to date (and by larger, I mean REALLY large; I will get to the reasons why). I wouldn't expect such a craft in the atmosphere (that's where the smaller craft would go), but I would expect one closeby, if at least some of the small craft observations are genuine. The reason is simple: Given the insane distances, no "friendly port" on Earth and as far as we can tell, nowhere in the inner Solar System (could be hidden further away, but I somewhat doubt that either; we would already have some "wtf" observations of something seriously unnatural "over there"), therefore a smaller craft would not do, especially if crewed. It would be as if Queen Isabella sent Columbus to the Indies in just a row boat. That would apply even if FTL is available - while the dangers of travel would largely be eliminated, the dangers of the destination would still be there. And since there were allegedly observed crashes, those dangers are not apparently fully addressed. On top of that, as stated in the video, our technological civilsation is observable only for about, give or take, hundred years directly; we can stretch that if we go with polution from the industrial revolution onward (although even that is a major stretch; until, say, WW1-WW2, a small asteroid impact would leave similar effects to the planet's atmosphere, so really, not a good reason for sending a crewed craft to investigate). That means that unless said civilisation is either spanning a very large portion of the Milky Way, or is very close, they wouldn't be here because of "us" (and if they were any of those two, we would most likely notice them by now too). Which brings us back to the forest frog analogy - I just find it very unlikely that anyone would send a row boat over the Atlantic to observe them. Now, it is possible that a larger craft is in the outer solar system and it is sending crewed craft our way to perform observations, for whichever reason - and we only didn't observe it, because it possesses cloaking technology. I also find that a bit hard to believe, because even if the mother craft would be hidden from us, the smaller craft apparently isn't - as far as I am aware, there were no attempts reported of the alleged alien craft cloaking (in fact, given how common UAP supposedly are, they don't seem to bother with cloaking; in fact, they don't seem to bother staying out of sight, they just preffer staying out of focus), but also, I don't recall any story of an attempted retrieval of their crashed craft (something one really would want to do if they went to the lenghts of hiding themselves from our sight with cloaking a large interstellar-flight-capable spacecraft), overall, it just doesn't come together well. Finally, let's say they are indeed not here for us, and came from a large distance to make some in-site observations. I mean, we do that too with large scientific expeditions, just see Antarctica. That runs into another hurdle - we would have to be INCREDIBLY contemporary to one another as civilisations. The timescales of the Universe are immensly large. Compare that to the technological explosion as stated in the video. If they weren't our contemporaries, they would either be here already, and would have been so for a very, very long time, or they wouldn't be "at all". While the likelihood of them being from relatively the same time period as us (we are talking hundreds of thousands of years to a few millions, if I am to be generous, compared to the 13 billion year age of the Milky Way) is not zero, it is incredibly small. And if they indeed were from the same time period as us, that would strongly imply that there would be others popping up all the time - there would have to be at least a few much older "empires" that would eventually come our way anyway. And for that, see above. Overall, even though I strongly believe there is life elsewhere in the Universe, and probably also in the galaxy, with all likelyhood, "they" are not here. It just doesn't add up. And finally - to quote Carl Sagan: "Extraordinary claims require extrordinary evidence." So far, everyone making claims about aliens have failed to produce sufficient evidence.
The larger the craft, or the larger the number of craft, the more likely the hoax will be exposed. UFOs are a strategic deception to confuse the potential adversaries of the United States, by convincing them that America might have access to alien technology.
@@driver3899 Out of focus undefined imagery and eyewitness testimony of phenomenon that hasn´t been seen before and lasts a few seconds. Yea, I would call it insufficient.
The idea that ufos flying here from other galaxies and then crashing or us seeing them makes as much sense as a ant noticing a jet flying at 30000 feet.
That’s a pretty low bar.... For the entire universe. Plus, if we’re accounting for the Fermi Paradox. It’s likely if any other intelligent being existed they are either way too far or died out long ago.
If we define intelligence as galaxy level space travel, there are no known intelligent species. Reversing this logic, there may be more intelligent species who for whichever reasons haven't become massive space farers.
Thanks for another entertaining and down to earth explanation of a "sciency" concept that appears to be difficult for many to grasp. Also you have come to the same conclusion as me which means you must be very wise and competent. Wait a minute I am not so competent...
I watched a guy with a metal detector walk around the Roswell crash site for hours and eventually he found a twisted piece of metal. It was tested by UNM metallurgists and came back as 1930s aircraft aluminum
legend has it the army went back to crash sites and spread trash around to cover anything they missed. read american cosmic. very good read and answers a ton of questions. also, the assumption that pieces of a craft may be detectable is an assumption.
@@ernie8419 I can say very confidently that never occurred. A huge majority of the pieces he has found over the years are one type of thin sheeting, very tiny and shredded from some type of impact. He also has a small number of boot eyelets and other metal bits from the soldiers on cleanup duty. There was clearly an effort made to remove everything, and only the smallest and most dispersed pieces remain.
@@ernie8419 The assumption that there were aliens and alien ships is also an assumption. No credible evidence for any alien visitation has been found.
@@ernie8419 This guy talking about 'legends' and wife tales when documents have been released what exactly crashed there. Just boggles the mind how poeple keep sweeping facts and hard evidence under the rug to keep their movie fantasies alive.
Making projections about an intelligent life intentions is like commenting the moves of pro chess players after having read the Wikipedia's chess article.
There are a lot of things that can be reasonably speculated on. Eg. They would be exposed to the same laws of physics, chemistry and evolution. With the later, the selection pressures may be different but the rules of the game will be the same.
@somethinglikethat2176 A computer is also based on the law of physics, yet trying to understand what computation it is doing based on its circuitry is a very difficult task. Add the possibility that a superintelligence would likely use quantum properties such as non-locality and interferences, which would imply that there is no chance to understand them without having mastered quantum computers ourselves.
![Quando Rondo - Life Goes On [Official Music Video]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/eIf3fhMXAow/mqdefault.jpg)
The data, PowerPoints and Google Earth File along with a longer explanation is available here:
ryanmcbeth.substack.com/p/oops
Based on the analysis, I believe that there is almost no chance (a 0-5% chance) that intelligent life has visited Earth.
1. There seems to be a scarcity of life.
2. Earth may be difficult to detect.
3. The motivation of an alien to travel to Earth may be limited to defense - which means that the only reason we are alive as a species is that we havn't been visted.
Special thanks to:
Dr. Oisín Creaner, Assistant Professor in Physical Sciences at Dublin City University
Professor Marco Thiel, PhD, University of Aberdeen (UK)
Andy Silber, PhD
PhD Student Robin Mentel, University College Dublin
PhD Student Ethan from Northumbria University.
PhD Student Roland Timmerman from Leiden Observatory
Keane Halls from Bangor University
Scott Madison, a “Smarty-Pants” from New Mexico Tech
Ryan Frazee, Cosmologist, University of Kansas
And Brian Drourr, professional astrophotographer
Any mistakes I have made are solely my own.
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that's much better, thanks. the first video was a nightmare 🤣🤣🤣
edit: also en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chirality_(chemistry) the topic of chirality and the "handedness" of the molecules making up life and food sources, is fascinating too
Our galaxy is mind boggling large. Its about 100,000 light-years across with around 400 billion stars each with its own collection of planets and there are art last 200 billion and perhaps as many as 2 trillion galaxies in the known universe.
The sheer scale means that it's a virtual certainty that not only does life exist, it must be fairly common and Intelligent life can't be too uncommon in this vastness.
However, the distances involved are even more astonishing. The nearest star is over 4 light years away and the next nearest galaxy is is 2.5 million light years.
The fastest man made object is the Parker space probe which is traveling at 350,000 miles per hour or 563,270.4 kilometers per hour. At these speeds it would take over 8,000 years to travel to the closest star, proxima centauri, which is 4.37 light years from earth.
Even if we were to travel at a significant percentage of the speed of light, it would still take decades to travel just to the next star let alone anywhere else in the galaxy.
Not only are the distances so vast, but the estimated age of the universe, at 14 billion years, is also mind numbing. We've existed for only the tiniest fraction of that time and only been space going for the last few decades.
So consider this, for us to meet intelligent aliens they have to not only exist in relative close proximity to us but they also have to exist at a time that overlaps with our existence and have reached technological advancement enough to get here.
So, while there is almost certainly other intelligent life in the universe, even if it were reasonably common, the odds of us overlapping in both time and space with an alien civilization capable of visiting is vanishingly small.
@@lenger1234 A lot of current thinking is that life as we know it is a lot more rare than those statistics you're thinking of would lead you to believe. Just the folding of chromosomes in a particular manner to allow intelligence is extremely unlikely - even in a universe of planets. Our planet/sun combo is also way more rare than we thought even 20 years ago. Add to that the theory Ryan mentions, and it's entirely possible that life - especially intelligent life - may be ultra rare.
@@brentm9848 but there's also concepts such as the anthropic principle which, depending on if you're in the weak or strong camp, indicate these studies about life being rare are likely flawed. It should be noted that an often-understated answer to the Fermi Paradox is that sapient life is perfectly abundant across the universe and we just lack sufficient understanding to identify their signatures.
I like Bill Waterson's take in Calvin and Hobbes -- "Sometimes I think the surest sign that intelligent life exists elsewhere in the universe is that none of it has tried to contact us."
😂👍agree 100%
how could a species incapable of society without monopolization of violence comprehend interstellar friendship? if I was an alien race capable of watching us evolve and seeing what we've done I wouldn't contact until we've figured our shit out either. the fact that scientific exploration and discovery was dismissed as clout chasing in this argument assumes an extra terrestrial society has the same perspective on recourses as we do. if their technology has advanced beyond consumption, and could perhaps be truly renewable, a concept easily conceivable in our current reality, fusion exists, than perhaps we really do just need to put the gun down.
😂👍🏻
An alternative is Dark Forest Theory 🫥
👍
“Space is big. You just won't believe how vastly, hugely, mind-bogglingly big it is. I mean, you may think it's a long way down the road to the chemist's, but that's just peanuts to space.”
― Douglas Adams, The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy
well done
time too 😉
This. I try to tell people that it’s just not feasible that this would happen. Unless aliens live to be like 15 million years old or something & a 2 million year, one way trip isn’t a big deal.
@@beepboop204 Time. That's a good one. Why is it that when you have 5 minutes left in your work day and you look at the clock again only one minute has passed? And when your alarm clock rings and you roll over to get 5 more minutes of rest you end up 20 minutes behind schedule?
@@goldenageofdinosaurs7192 What if they travel interdimensional or fold space? If they use gravity drive, they can also alter time. If this is happening, we need to think outside the box to understand this phenomenon.
Mad respect for Ryan going way out of his normal area of interest and doing a bang-up job of analyzing the likelihood of aliens, a subject that I spend way too many hours watching vids about and thinking about.
He is still a human sizing the universe to its own self .,size is a very limiting factor for a human .The person creating a universe is a of different size or not limited by size ,size is our jail .
Alien life is already visiting our planet as the UFO hearing in Congress has proven on Wednesday. We are not alone - just on the 2004 Tic Tac UFO encounter alone.
@@spookyninja4098the hearing was just hearsay. There wasn't any evidence provided.
You've watched Issac Author's Fermi Paradox videos I presume ;)
You aren't the only one. I am currently working on a book about it, and the information you need to know is staggering.
Only Ryan could equate the probability of life in the universe to the probability that a McDonalds ice cream machine is broken. Cheers, Ryan.
It's not just Mickey D's ice cream machine. My local Burger Royalty finger food emporium claims its machine is under maintenance so often, I keep wondering if it can qualify for replacement under the State's Lemon Law. This cuts down on the number of options if and when an alien should arrive and say "Take me to your (functioning) ice cream machine."
The chances of other heavier elements being present in a Star system while carbon isn’t kinda raises some questions as to why that would be. Especially since we have detected the elements we consider necessary for life in interstellar clouds, along with organic molecules. The building blocks are all over the place. It’s really just a question of how common abiogenesis is, or how likely is some past civilization to be willing and able to seed life throughout the cosmos.
Ryan, your video is the most entertaining and imaginative presentation of this issue/question I've ever seen. Very, very, very clever. Even outstanding. And I agree with your conclusion. Probably because we are both former military. Military people assess and think in terms of threat and mission survivability.
However...
Some observations: is it REALLY a proper assumption that creatures with strong "religious" beliefs would not be highly motivated to evangelize? To reveal their truth. Or to destroy those who do not believe? If that religion, like Christianity or Islam believed in a universal objective metaphysics, Creator, moral code...why would that be like talking to a tree frog? As an intelligence guy...you need to reassess your own assumptions. I don't think you appreciate the POWER of religious belief. I am not saying aliens cannot be vastly more intelligent, but that hardly makes humans mere tree frogs. Humans are sentient and capable of pretty cool things. In other words, Ryan, do not dismiss "religion" as none scientific gobbledygook. Religion, the acknowledgement that creatures are not the Creator is the gigantic looming issue and question of existence. There is no larger question or compelling appetite to understand. Remember that religion is the undergirding assumption about reality itself including science. That belief is everything. You may dismiss it because you "believe" in "reason" and science. But science and reason have limits. And pushing limits is the very nature of exploration and power projection. To dismiss this fact of existence is to proceed at your peril. I don't think you appreciate the magnitude of religion in the foundation of consciousness itself: civilization, science, thought, art, law, quest, war. Whether human or otherwise. Just a caveat... A very important one.
A planetary Mc Donalds, with the ice cream machine broken due to stubbornly poor design, also on fire and infested by an intelligent parasite determined to make itself extinct.
@@johnsnyder3443I would disagree with your critique. As Ryan points out, the only reasonable way for life on Earth to have been detected is through the presence of Oxygen, which on Earth is produced exclusively by non-sentient life. More prominent traces of CO2, Sulphur, or H2O can be written off as evidence of volcanic activity. It wouldn't be until detection of enriched Uranium or Plutonium that sentient life becomes likely. That assumes they even notice the Oxygen or Uranium through the thick Nitrogen atmosphere and magnetic field. Realistically, I think Ryan is right to say that it's too unlikely.
In 125 years everyone is going to be hyped getting a Morse code message back saying "new phone, who dis?"
Funny
@@RyanMcBethProgramming well ho lee shit, in all my time of making stupid comments on RUclips, never have I gotten a response from the creator 😂
@@isaacbrown4506Its an awesome thing. I got slammed by Mike from Red Letter Media years ago.
Got help us when they pick up the radio and television signals from the 1930s and start speaking German very enthusiastically saying they are on their way soon...
That would be both cool and funny. But why would they know morse code and why would they know and use our alphabet and language? It would seem that they KNOW "who dis" if they're using our language and alphabet. Unless, of course, ALL alien life forms really do speak English...
"use more... KINETIC methods" may be my new favorite euphemism for violence
It's also a reasonable euphemism for sex.
I saw an interview with an astronomist who made the observation that if space were the size of the Pacific Ocean, we've looked at an area the size of a glass of water for life. If an advanced civilization had the chance to explore 10000x more space than us, they've looked through a dozen barrels of water. Out of the Pacific Ocean.
And as long as we have to assume that the speed of light is a definite barrier, it's hardly possible to get much beyond that.
Even if there are advanced species observing earth, they may merely see it as it was millions of years ago.
If we've looked at an area of space equal to a glass of water, how could anyone make a guess space is the size of the Pacific Ocean?
@@senatorjosephmccarthy2720 Two things, first, OP specified that we've searched the "glass of water" for life, not that that glass is all we've looked at.
Second, you're right, there's a reason that when people talk about how many galaxies, or how big space is, they qualify it by saying "in the observable universe" because there is a finite distance that we can observe. That distance is mind bogglingly big, but to bring it back to the ocean analogy, we haven't yet seen the whole ocean, we're just comparing the area we've looked for life to the area we know exists, we don't know how big the ocean actually is.
@senatorjosephmccarthy2720 You can measure the edges of the Pacific Ocean without checking all the contents.
@@seanabbott798the scientists spoke prematurely since he doesn’t know the size of the universe. Just as Ryan and all of the naysayers, your thought process is quite logical, but recent US airforce encounter with UFO still needs to be explained kinetically. Without logical explanation of the recorded object your logical discussion is wrong explanation of the UFO sighting and to our highly trained pilots.
Low probability doesn’t mean 0. I don’t kill new primitive life I find in nature, and our current human logic doesn’t encompass all logics in another 100 years. I didn’t even got into quantum theory and multiverse.
As a astrophysics and Fermi paradox enthusiast who could talk about that topic for days without pause, my first reaction at the beginning of your video was "Oh, no, here it comes". How many errors would I find, despite knowing how well informed you always explain many other topics? Well - none, dude! Awesome work! Special props for the phosphorus topic, this is NOT well known, even in the "Fermi-Paradox"-sphere! You did your homework, sir! Half way through I was already expecting, that you will give special thanks to a bunch of astrophysicists. You don't disappoint!
What about the possibility of UAPs being interdemensional? That point seems to have been completely ignored.
I'm not saying this to be a troll but because I really am curious and feel like this should have at least been addressed before almost totally dismissing the idea of UAPs being here.
@@Britt-r3r What if they travel by worm hole? What if they probe our anuses?
You can pose an infinite what if scenarios, it doesn't make this so called testimony more credible.
@@Britt-r3r What do you mean by "interdimensional"? Once you realize that you can't actually define this in terms of known physics, why not replace the term with "magic".
@jimsackmanbusinesscoaching1344 Why not "by means not fully understood" instead of "magic"?
Yeah, I only recently heard about the phosphorus problem from Isaac Arthur.
This guy has a knack for picking up information and understanding it well enough to create analogies for it. He could be a lawyer for sure. He isnt an astrophysicist or a chemist but he really got a lot of the right information to analyze this problem. Ive read a lot about all of this information as well and he reallt hit the nail on the head about what things are problems and what we are looking for to get the answers we need. Im impressed.
The critical misgiving with this logic, is that it assumes that another species shares our logic. Not a criticism of yourself, but I do think Humans are far too egotistical when it comes to the infallibility of our own logic.
A good book that kinda touches on parallel dimensions and chaotic quantum mechanics logic is through the looking glass by John Ringo.
First, logic is not just thinking or philosophical. Logic has a mathematical foundation, as originally codified by Bertrand Russell.
Any intelligence advanced enough to travel the vastness of space will understand mathematics, as it is as universal as laws of physics, chemistry and biology.
Second, there is a metric called the Kardashev Scale that quantifies the level of technical advancement of a species and civilization based on its ability to utilize energy. For example, a Type 2 civilization can completely harness the energy and resources of its host star in its solar system. This could be through mega structures akin to Dyson Spheres or Ring Worlds, for example. No matter, these types of objects would also be signatures for advanced intelligent life. Incidentally, the scale arguably can go to a Level 5 civilization, which assumes the existence of Multiverses. Imagine what god-like powers beings who can control and harness the energy of entire universes would have, and by extension what need they would have to visit earth. It would be akin to going to an ant hill in Africa to watch the intestinal bacteria in the ant guts. They could no more communicate with us - let alone have us understand them - than we could do the same with gut bacteria.
If they made it to space, their capacity for logic is self evidence.
Maybe they have found us and are studying a primitive society taking it's very first steps in to chemical powered space flight.
bold to take this on, I'm glad you never shy away from issues based on controversy alone.
What a great exercise teaching the value of logic and factual thinking as opposed to emotionally based "thinking". Great work!
Good analysis of this one scenario. I’m suprised there was no caveat about that.
There are others that have nothing to do with traveling vast distances.. such as the person he used in his graphic. Grusch and his best guess based on what he saw in the documents.
What am I supposed to think with the buzz word “misinformation” in the title, and the a very narrow approach to this topic.
Very lacking….
Anyway, if time is fundamental to the theory, you’re never ever going to there. Similar to his distance from KS to Biloxi, if he can’t phrase this concept then he is leaving a lot off the table.
Ask a physicist about time lol.
It is a lot cheaper to go higher than 8 kilometres sitting in a chair than climbing Mount Everest.
Alien life is already visiting our planet as the UFO hearing in Congress has proven on Wednesday. We are not alone - just on the 2004 Tic Tac UFO encounter alone...
It's a great example of how humans can't get away from emotional thinking. We assume others think like us. I personally would think curiosity as a reason would be nearly 100% whereas defence say 10% because I don't work in defence so don't have a bias to think that way. It's impossible for us to know what another alien will value
@@spookyninja4098what is your definition of evidence, what types of evidence are you using to come to that conclusion?
Thanks for diving into realistic SETI topics and combining into the most-tailored-for-me RUclips channel of all time😊
thanks, i thought your ukraine stuff was good, this is better.
Haha I thought the same my youtube is 70% aliens, 29% Ukraine, 1% fishing videos lol. I hope he keeps up with the UAP/alien videos too. It's like he read my mind. He didn't account for one thing.... we don't know what we don't know yet. There's other elements and physics that we don't yet know, this fact makes pretty much anything possible. Yes the universe is huge and spread out so much, this fact doesn't mean anything, it's clear they are here. We almost all know someone who's seen one. My mom saw a ufo that took up the whole sky in 1968 over for knox. I think the zoo hypothesis is the most likely.
@@extrememiami Lol reality just waves bye bye to some people.
Your analogies are really well done. This is really thorough and accessible. You're turning into a science RUclipsr as well as an investigative journalist.
I second this. His analogies are top notch.
He is great, but this is not really journalism. This is an expert in a field applying his skills and showing us. I studied journalism for 3 years and this isn't really what we learn (although some journalists are of course experts)
No. RUclipsrs should not be allowed to see simp comments like this. He's turning into a guy who thinks he's an expert in everything because he's an expert in one thing. This video could be about any topic and the way he's approaching the topic is bad in so, so many ways. But he'll never figure it out because of the standard youtube piles of praise commenters like this.
He's following scientific process that's why
Hypothesis, analysis & evidence
“Two possibilities exist: either we are alone in the universe or we are not. Both are equally terrifying.”
-- Arthur C Clarke
I don't agree with this statement. To me being alone in the universe is unsettling because it's up to humanity to keep life going. Not being alone opens up new possibilities.
@@dt6653And possibly new threats, depending on whether c can be exceeded.
There is almost certainly life out there. Problem is, the speed of light rule is a hard and fast barrier to travel between stars, and given the distances involved, it is unlikely that we will ever be visited by aliens, or vice versa.
I would remind of Clarke’s Three Laws ( Arthur C.Clarke) When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong.
The only way of discovering the limits of the possible is to venture a little way past them into the impossible.
Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.
@@johnjones_1501The universe is also really really old. The sun might be a fourth generation star -- which means the original star went supernova and turned into dust, slowly coalesced into another star, which also went supernova etc for up to three complete cycles before our sun was formed.
The analogy for distances and amounts using the US soil, the TSA, sand and McDonalds is absolutely brilliant! Thank you for uploading this work
Boston, has a scale model of the Solar System that spreads out as far as the town of Auberndale. Great stuff.
@@JohnWilliamNowakbut primitive AI in 3 years time can search every McDonalds for a specific ice cream flavor under 5 seconds.
Ryan and all of the naysayers, your thought process is quite logical, but recent US airforce encounter with UFO still needs to be explained kinetically. Without logical explanation of the recorded object your logical discussion is wrong explanation of the UFO our highly trained pilots saw.
Low probability doesn’t mean 0. I don’t kill new primitive life I find in nature, and our current human logic doesn’t encompass all logics in another 100 years. I didn’t even got into quantum theory and multiverse.
You shouldn't need an analogy to figure out how far things are. Facepalm!
@@coolorphansI don't need you telling me what I do or don't need
This excercise was awesome. Very good attempt at defending an argument with sound reasoning and scientific logic. I really enjoyed it. I think it is exactly how these topics should be approached. What you just explained is what we know and understand based on our current scientific level of development and the evidence it provides.
Now, that doesn't rule out the chances that our understanding and knowledge is limited, but that should not come as a surprise to anybody because that's exactly how science works.
First... Love the analogy
Second... This is how discussion should work. We could change our perspective based on new information
You explained life, distance, possibilities, and probability into a short video.
It completely made sense to me.
I would call this video Sagan-worthy.
Bravo to you and your many contributors. This is the most measured and lucid examination of the complexity and perils of interstellar travel I can remember
For OUR technology. Not for someone with more advanced tech.
@@SvenTvikingI love the "advanced tech" excuse given no matter how advanced you are there will always be limits to the speed of travel.
I think the biggest thing about Grush's explanation that makes it fall apart for me is that he claims we have been reverse engineering alien technology in order to make our advances in military tech, but this does not at all line up with how military and broader general technological advancements have been made. Rather than being made in sudden leaps and bounds as we deciper and reverse engineer extremely advanced tech, we see technologies that were first theorized decades ago being put into the prototyping stage, and then after further decades of development finally getting put into full production. Modern advancements like advanced nano-scale computer chips and adaptive cycle engines are things that were theorized in independent academic papers 30+ years ago and are only now starting to put into practice.
if you actually watched or read the testimony you would know grusch claims the opposite, that we have been trying for 80 years and still cannot reverse engineer anything
I heard that the wire that goes back to shape with heat and the invisible material at certain angles came from alien tech. It doesnt have to be crazy wild technology, just a few tips and hints to get material science to the finish line would count as help from crashed UFOs.
To me, Grusch comes across as flippant and self-centered. Kind of creepy or something. UAPs, yes. Aliens, no.
@@BillKurn Grusch has more credentials than you buddy
@@paddington1670 100 percent false you can trace the patents and development of all these things, they are 100 percent human invention , grusch said there has been no successful reverse engineering
One question that needs to be addressed which isn't with Drake's equation is: Given some percentage chance of life existing elsewhere in the galaxy, and given the vast amounts of time involved at a galactic scale, what is the chance that life has evolved elsewhere _at the same time_ as us.
That’s like saying that when you look at the stars ,we share the same time ?
@@robertwoodroffe123we may see something that is already gone.
What are the chances that it's not alien life but terrestrial life. It may not be terrestrial life from now it could be terrestrial life from the future or the past. And it sounds a lot like extra dimensional technology. Think of the tardis bigger on the outside is the tardis actually moving through space when it travels or is it simply changing the location of its portal.
You're not the first to bring up that fact. One scientist brought up a scenario that Earth receives a signal from a distant planet thousands of years ago, Earth responds & once the Earth response reaches that planet. All life on that planet is dead due to the parent star has died or some cataclysms occurred hundred of years ago on that planet that wiped out all life. All that Earth finally achieve interstellar travel, & all we find are abandoned ruins of dead civilization.
Or they detect us, & sent a scientific expedition toward Earth, takes a couple of hundred of years, & by the time they arrive on Earth. The human race is extinct due to a climate catastrophe or simply wiped ourselves out from a nuclear war.
Time actually is not such a factor here. If an intelligent species gains access to FTL technologies, there’s no denying its pretty much here to stay now. An extinction event of cosmic proportions would need to occur to wipe them out, and so life from the past is far more likely than more recent life closer to our age, as they have a boost in gaining this survivability advantage, while us terrestrials are at the mercy of nature. So really it’s more a function of their mere distance from us because of how hard detecting a civilization like us is.
“Space is really big. If you tried to think about it, you’d fail.”
-Kurtzgesagt
Ryan, you've been just an incredibly welcome breath of fresh air. Your content is so very well researched and explained without any level of bias. You always apply critical and reasonable thinking, and this is something that is sadly missing from society. Keep up the excellent work!
Damn that was one hell of a video 😍This is the link you send to those friends that just took this hearing on face value, and decided we have been visited and they crashed into McDonalds .
A-freakin-men brother
time needs to be added to the alien equation; not only do aliens need to form a civilization, but they have to do it at the same time as humans. those are big odds
My initial draft covered time, and the evolution window between when life develops, and when the local star explodes. What I realized was that, since we really didn’t know how long it might take for life to develop outside of earth, it’s not something we could speculate on.
@@RyanMcBethProgramming thanks for your reply, still doing a good job, don't how to work time in the equation
Assume that at a galaxy joyride technology that they can live billions of years. So, having lived before us handles that issue quickly.
I believe we aren't the first... nor the last society to develop... there are societies that could be a million years advanced of us and likewise there are societies still bubbling in a pond somewhere figuring this living thing out...
The Human race has only had Electricity and modern science for what 120 ? Now imagine an Alien race that is 1000 to 10,000 years in advance of us and have super science to travel faster than the speed of light = We dont have to imagine because Alien life is already visiting our planet as the UFO hearing in Congress has proven on Wednesday.
"Have we been visited by aliens? Mr. Grusch certainly thinks so."
MR. GRUSCH WENT OUT OF HIS WAY NOT TO SAY 'ALIENS'!!! The distinction is important.
Parking lot of Wendy's in Biloxi Mississippi sounds like the perfect characterization of our position in the galaxy.
I tried to watch this video (or rather, the original) a few min after it was published and it wouldn't load. Glad to see it's back up! And love your content! (I'm also a bit of a nerd, and studying to be an analyst, so your content is right up my alley, and I've learned a lot!)
Yeah, I uploaded the wrong file because I was running late for a baseball game.
@RyanMcBethProgramming No worries! Hope your team won, and if ya didn't, that yall had fun and gained some valuable insight for the next matchup!
@@RyanMcBethProgramming I can see the difference in run times 😅 Not gonna lie - I was kind of excited for a 41 minute video. 28 is fine though! Love your content!
thought you had loaded a live feed by mistake shows all the hassle to make your vids ( out of sync sounds) still good
There is something people also tend to forget: the intelligence barrier. Sure, life can exist, but the vast majority of life that does and did exist(that we know of) cannot bring itself to a civilization level. In fact, for the vast majority of evolutionary history, high intelligence was not that useful when compared to the immense energy investment cost that it required; and therefore you didn’t see it that often in nature. Life on this earth is 3.7 billion years old(multicellular life being only 700 million years). The last common ancestor between humans and the great apes was only around 7 million ago. 3.7 billion years of different species, and nothing with the level of civilizational complexity has ever even come close to us.
To those interested in the topic, check out von neumann probes. We often make the assumption that organic beings would make the trip to earth in these scenarios.
Right, I mean we already sent unmanned probes out of our solar system, and have autonomous probes exploring alien planets in our own system.
What will we be able to do in a couple more decades if we were to put real effort behind it? What could we do in a few centuries?
There’s no reason for self replicating probes to not also create biological clones of beings to interact with other intelligent biological species, and those clones being considered as disposable as the automated probes themselves.
@@russellharrell2747 Which is a step away from the panspermia hypothesis.
Just to jump on to the post. Isaac Arthur's channel has tons of grat videos on the topic.
Ryan... I've watched a LOT of you vids & really appreciate them. The first post was extra special for me. I already read this video (text) yesterday & knew where this was going. However, seeing into your raw work was its own treat (I'm not sure you wanted us to see it, but *I* appreciated it). SO much behind the scenes work goes into your polished product.
Ok, enough rambling from me. I'm sure you know what I'm saying. Here's a donation that is long overdue. Please keep us informed with your great videos.
Thank you, Ryan!
- David
That’s really kind of you, David. Thank you.
Thank you, that was brilliant - and brilliant in every way! I loved the science, the logical analysis, the very funny, totally accessible and absolutely appropriate analogies, and the excellent way you cited your scientific supporters at the end. You’re changing the zeitgeist ! Thanks for this, and for all your other videos. Very best wishes. (Btw, great to know that the President has your phone number… 😊)
Ryan, you have a way of making very technical and complex subject matter and breaking it down in a way for us that aren't experts understand easily. I like to consider myself intelligent and educated, but I'm not sure I could have understood your analysis easier by any other means, and all in 30 mins. Keep up the great work. We're all watching 😀
Awful video; this government propagandist called the uap witnesses liars.
Every video you make is so well made. All of the research and effort that you put into them is clear and I enjoy every second. Also as an aspiring journalist it’s great to see an independent journalist reaching this many people this quickly.
Always great content. Just listened to this while putting together a pretty cool sandbox for my kids. Keep doing your thing sir. Much appreciation for your channel 🇺🇸🫡
The thing that personally frustrates me about UFO enthusiasm is that 'alien' means the exact same thing as 'magic made X thing happen here.' It's not useful because aliens are magic for all intents and purposes, just cloaked in the language of popular scientism. If you can say 'an unknown technology can do X' and X can be anything, than the claim is the same as saying 'this is possible because an elf could do it.' This is why many UFO-proponents respond to this reality the same way the fanatically religious do, 'how dare you question my belief.'
The thing that personally frustrates me about vaccine enthusiasm is that 'vaccine' means the exact same thing as 'magic made X disease gone' It's not useful because vaccines are magic for all intents and purposes, just cloaked in the language of popular scientism. If you can say 'a new vaccine can cure X' and X can be anything, than the claim is the same as saying 'this is possible because an elf could do it.' This is why many vaccine-proponents respond to this reality the same way the fanatically religious do, 'how dare you question my belief.'
See how that sounds? This could apply to literally any group of people with vocal beliefs. And no, I'm not an anti-vaxxer.
“Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.”-Arthur C. Clarke
@@jacquesstrapp3219👍👍👍👍
@@jacquesstrapp3219 You're quoting a fiction writer... Just because someone said something once in the past doesn't make it true.
@@chrisblashill7265 Right. It's a cool idea but it runs into a few issues. Sure, I buy the premise that it's possible to mimic what a lower tech person would see as "magic" using "sufficiently advanced technology". But sometimes the best solution to a problem is not the magic solution. Why would alien craft in our atmosphere look like blurs of light when they could be ordinary aerodynamic craft? Even better, they could disguise as meteors or birds or other natural or human-created phenomena. What's the point of making technology that seems like magic when that is rarely the optimal solution?
Technology, no matter how advanced, will also eventually run into the constraints of physics. I'm pretty confident that the laws of thermodynamics, causality, and gravity are not going to be violated by any technology, no matter how advanced. So when one of these UAPs suddenly change direction, where does the energy come from for that change? Where does the waste heat go? Maybe some people consider that a small-minded attitude but I will continue to believe in the forward flow of time and the reality of mass and energy, thanks.
I have one major takeaway. If we ever run across aliens out there, we better make damn sure they never learn where Earth is. By the way, Stephen Hawking came to the same conclusion. So, Ryan, I'd say you probably nailed it.
There is a comic book of all things that point that out, when two starships meet in intersteller space and the human ship trys to run, the Captain orders a change of course and explanies "Do you wnat to show them how to get to earth?". the coimc was a backup stories to Magnus Robot fighter around 1964.
I remember reading a short story about a human ship in deep space that meets an alien ship in deep space. Both have the same objective: to report back the existence of another intelligent species without giving away data that could be used to find the home world and wipe their own species out. After some period of tense standoff, each crew removes all tracking instrumentation and data regarding the location of their inhabited territory from the ship, and then they swap ships.
I don’t know about this argument. Any significantly more advanced civilization would have to need covet our resources.
@@Delgen1951 They do this in the Halo series too. They have a thing called the "Cole Protocol" where they do a bunch of random slip-space jumps (hyperspace in halo) away from Earth or Earth colonies before they head back to Earth or anywhere important. Meanwhile on REAL Earth we're beaming our location out 24/7 lol.
Isn't that the basis of some science fiction movie (maybe independence day)? Aliens hear the signal sent out by aricebo (the one carl sagan championed), so they come here to wipe us out?
I was already a subscriber, but my respect for you just jumped 2 orders of magnitude. Good job man, keep up the great work.
Thank you for the opportunity to contribute to this. It's been a fun experience getting to help out with this video.
This is excellent! I didn't anticipate such a well-done analysis. High five to Ryan!
🖐🖐🖐
Excellent video ! I do like when you do a long form one like this obv with a lot of prep and research which makes it really interesting to watch.
I also love your self made adverts for your “merch”. Extremely funny and well made. Good luck with the ongoing new career doing this stuff full time.
Why he said bye to his $$$ making old jobs? He has so many bikes,,,
Couple of points:
- Resource allocation depends on scale: at $58k trip to Everest is a once in a life time thing for most people, but if Bezos lives another 80 years, he could fund an expedition every second and not run out of money. So if you have the resources of a dozen solar systems at your disposal, suddenly sending a ship to every mildly interesting world isn't that expensive.
-We keep statistics on everything: We keep statistics on how many mcFlurries are functioning. We track what elements are where in the galaxy. You think we wouldn't place sensor stations of various kinds out to every single world in the galaxy if we could?
- We really like spying on our neighbors: international diplomacy is built on espionage. Hell, we'll happily spy on our closest allies, just to be safe. If we think we can get away with it, we spy. Presumably, if we were aware of a primitive alien civilization on another world, we'd spy on them.
- Tech grows exponentially: and we don't know where that process stops. There may be simple solutions to all sorts of things we think are hard, radically reducing the costs.
In order to spy on someone, we would have to send something there. How long will that take to get there? Voyager 1 would take 75000 years to reach Alpha Centauri, the closest star and if I am not mistaken that is the fastest or close to the fastest craft we have ever made. So there is a time issue as well - what do you and I care if our descendants in 75000 (+ 3 years to send the answer back to Earth) find something really cool to spy on at Alpha Centauri? Are we gonna fund it?
To which I say, how do you account for time? Time to traverse the universe and return back to where they came from. With findings to report back to their own beings. Unless a one way trip is all that matters, considering they live thousands upon thousands of light years (trillions even?). Or do they call home their interactions with us. And if so, are they not limited by speed of light because otherwise their own civilizations would have died many, many times over before getting word back.
And let’s just say that they are much closer to us than we can imagine. Our own galaxy, the odds of that are beyond astronomical. With that vastness of JUST our observable universe, that would be like in this vastness, lightning hitting at the same place (within the tiniest span of measurement man can conjure) and at the exact, exact same time (after all, our species has not been around that long).
It seems incomprehensible.
@@dougerrohmerfunny. I just started writing something similar but more long-winded. Thank you.
The problem is that we just don’t know enough it could be that there is intelligent life with godlike powers like the Q collective but it could also be that we are alone in the universe so based on the data we have it is just not conceivable that aliens have already been too earth.
Edit for spelling errors.
@@dougerrohmerDo you really think Aliens with potentially millions of years on us, would be sending probes going the speed of a 1970s satellite?
We have to remember that the term unidentified flying object does not refer to alien, just because that flying thing doesn’t have a designation and look like a shape we expect to see doesn’t mean it’s from another planet
Also it might not even be an object. Thus the term "uap" (unidentified aerial phenomenon) has replaced "UFO" in investigative circles to account for complex mirages.
@hoej Unless you're talking about the handful that were picked up on multiple radars and thermal targeting systems while also being seen visually. A mirage doesn't cause that, an object does.
@@cruise_missile8387 agreed. But again. Just because we don't know what it is, doesn't mean it's alien
@mrdlewis22 Well certainly, and my perspective on that we only have enough to maybe narrow down the list of reasonable hypotheses and improve the investigative direction but we currently don't have enough to come to a conclusion. People are wanting to skip the uncertainty phase and jump to a conclusion but we just don't have enough for that. We can't say it's aliens or off-world drones or something but we certainly should take the possibility seriously while understanding that it could easily be something a rival government has developed, or something we have developed and have kept compartmentalized away from the public and even most military personnel (just having a top-secret clearance doesn't get you access to anything labeled "top-secret," there's a lot more to gaining access and we keep things even from ourselves all the time).
I'm comfortable taking several possibilities seriously and then leaving it inconclusive more info comes in to where we can confirm a hypothesis.
You switched from Wendy's to McDonald's. Not a good move.
Talk about a video I did not expect from Ryan McBeth. Nicely done, Mr. McBeth.
The often overlooked criteria is that this alien civilization also has to exist at the same time as us.
Not to be all doom and gloom, but lets say there is an alien civilizatin 125 light years away that detects this incredibly weak and scattered radio signal, there is a good chance that we wont be here by the time they arrive, between overpopulation, running out of our VERY limited resources (I am including famine here), global warming, and war.
Another great video Ryan :)
If the could get here... its probably because, 1. They have tremendously more advanced technology than us and could travel light years in a blink and 2. They not carbon based life forms...?
Our science community always consider that life elsewhere will be human or carbon based.... arrogant views.
Next he needs to do a video to dispell all the "The world's going to end from __________(fill in the blank with whatever scare tactic they're using as of late)" nonsense they're constantly coming up with to get people to fund research departments.
Global warming? Well if you're old enough you'll know that in the late 70's a bunch of the "climate experts" said the next ice age was just beginning after we had a couple of particularly nasty winter's, that was good for funding some university research departments for at least 5 years (God forbid they run out of money and then have to get job's in the private sector where they'd actually have to produce results from their work, starting to catch on yet?)
Just off the top of my head here's a short list of all the things that "experts" have said was going to wipe us out since the 70's (unless of course we fund their research departments, still not catching on yet?);
Next ice age
Acid rain
Ozone depletion
Nuclear holocaust
Killer Bee's (yes, seriously, they actually had all kinds of knee jerk reactive people convinced that killer bee's were going to wipe us out within the next 10 years, they even made a movie called The Swarm that Henry Fonda, Michael Caine, Olivia DeHavilland and other big name stars were in, just like nowadays how all the latest stars are in global warming catastrophe movies, still not catching on yet?)
And now it's global warming they've got people convinced will wipe us out, how long did Al Gore say? In 20 years? 30 YEARS AGO!!!
There’s weather in space, but there’s no air in space… but there is an air and space museum.
"The absence of evidence doesn't mean evidence of absence." Dr. Carl Sagan
Even if there was absolute proof that unicorns didn’t exist, that doesn’t disprove the existence of unicorn farts.
Oh yes, let's use an absurd example for a simple statement.
@@MarcosElMalo2Please...unicorns don't fart, too classy for it, doesn't stop Bigfoot from always saying "it was the unicorn" everytime. Always makes the pixies giggle.
@@dhuckbourning7165 it’s called reductio absurdum. It’s the technique of disproving a statement by showing how it leads to illogical conclusions.
Absolutely splendid work Ryan. Very amusing and informative. I take my hat off to you Sir. Well done!
Ryan, it is so refreshing to hear a clear, concise, and cogent discussing of this. You sir, are a genius because you make so most anyone can understand! Thanks sarge!
Never would I have believe I’d be in a Wendy’s parking lot only for it to be shown in the video I’m watching as I wait in the drive through
All of the core material I already knew, but the presentation is unlike anything I have ever seen or heard. I believe anyone can learn anything, but to truly understand, to be an expert you must be able to teach others. Only the best can teach anyone. Thank you Ryan for making us a little bit smarter.
Awe, I liked the raw edit. It was very relatable!
"I think it is much more likely that the reports of flying saucers are the result of the known irrational characteristics of terrestrial intelligence, rather than the unknown, rational efforts of extraterrestrial intelligence."
-- Richard Feynman
Fuckin' oath, mate!!
- Albert Einstein.
I'm calling it, there fancy drones that they won't tell us about for 50 years, like the blackbird of our time.
I have been waiting for your take on this, you’re one of the only people I trust on this sort of thing (especially as I’m too lazy to keep up with everything and analyse it myself 😂)
Government shill
Imagine there's smoke in your house, so you sit down and run the numbers on what the chances are your house is on fire at any given moment.
That's what this video is doing - it's not an assessment of any of the evidence that's being presented
@@alec3205 yeah, I was hoping he would talk about some of the new evidence that's been presented and some of stuff that's just wild theory.
@@alec3205 - There is no “evidence…”
@@Steve-ev6vx - and no “new evidence…”
“As we know it…” is a HUGE caveat.
I loved the reference to the mcflurry machine, but the Blockbuster reference took the #1 spot!
AWESOME ANALYSIS!!!!
Great points, can't imagine the work you put into this and great work being concise, im sure you could make an entire series of videos
I love how explain this stuff by mapping it to what we’re familiar with, makes it easier to grasp
lights in the night sky have been around forever; the jump to universe traveling intelligent species shows the imagination of the human species.
Very impressive analysis. I'll opine that our galactic neighbors more likely resemble cyanobacteria than Little Gray Men. And that Warp Drive seems to require large quantities of Unobtainium. And, it still violates causality.
Not necessary
I'm surprised you waited until nearly the end of the video to discuss the Drake Equation as part of your analysis. You certainly touched on some elements of it earlier that I was wondering if it'd ever come up at all. It certainly reinforces your point of how remote the chances are of visitation from ET's. This video was well done in reaching beyond your usual base audience and a refreshing change of usual topics. Nice to see several sciences touched on in this, as well. Great work!
What a great presentation, putting things into context that we ordinarily people can understand
The entire 3 body series is phenomenal
When it comes to understanding the universe and figuring out how life started we are cavemen looking at a smartphone.Simply because we are here based on all the odds Ryan explained anything is possible in the universe.We are so arrogant we just started flying 100years ago
Ryan McBeth hears about aliens, sighs, rolls up his sleeve and gets cracking on a 5 minute PhD in Astronomy and Astrophysics, and ends up producing a video with as much quality of content, and coherent explanation of concepts as could be seen in Kurzgesagt's videos.
What an outstanding effort to make this video, keep up the great work Dr. McBeth!
And he took it seriously. You can see no cigars/scotch. Just complex data.
So he is an astro physicist? Interesting tho. I do not think we have been visited. Why would super intelligent life travel billions of light years to visit this loser world, and all of the craft cited are so vague and varied. The congressional hearings were just dumb.
@Ryan McBeth One of the things that bothered me about this process is the fact that the guy worked in Military Intelligence. When people hear that, they think about James Bond. Given your work in ISR, it might be nice for you to do a video describing what MI people do.
It's also funny that people are willing to believe every single high ranking person in the government and military and likely the government and military of every other country is lying but this guy, with no evidence, is telling the truth.
Especially when the truth is that there are a bunch of aliens here who want to stay unseen but don't care about their maned ships crashing.
The aliens are always a prop, never a player.
Thanks, Ryan. Very interesting to listen to this; I hold your opinion in very high regard so I am glad you made a video on this topic! Thorough and insightful as always.
If aliens have been watching us, they probably already know by now that they don't need to wipe us out. We're doing a great job doing that ourselves.
Na it's human Nature what we are doing that's hiw we grow lol 😂🤣🤣
Who says they want to wipe us out??
I was thinking the same thing.
Just playing the long game...
Bingo.
I think I figured out why I like you. You're highly intelligent but at the same time you can see the comedic part of life. Also your real, you do not try to portray yourself as something that you're not. Take it or leave it this is me. I respect that.
The chances are slim...but never 0 ! Thanks for the explanations!
Something can however be close enough to zero to be practically zero. If something is hovering that close to zero while another explanation is much more likely, neither actually backed by objective evidence then it's only logical to place more weight on the more probable than the exceptional. Afterall, extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. There is already better evidence explaining the "videos" as misinterpreted videos of planes and birds filmed in infrared from another plane traveling at High velocity with enough embedded data jn the video itself for triangulation of the said objects speed and altitude to be determined and that its not extraordinary by any means, the real question is the motivation to both release these videos without the correct context and to actually "misinterpret" the actual context so erroneously (or fraudulently?) while providing nothing but hearsay for the extraterrestrial narrative while actually contradicting the embedded data in the videos in the process.
If there is intelligent life outside of Earth then it could be super far ahead of us technologically that we can not even begin to imagine imagine showing a caveman a 3D printer or trying to explain AI they could never be able to imagine that
I once heard an analogy that compared it to us trying to communicate to an ant colony. We know the ants are there, but they are so insignificant to us that we dont even bother.
Perhaps their is intelligent life.
Maybe they are superior or even far far superior. Doesn’t mean they would travel at all. Perhaps they are content where they are. Maybe they are not as intelligent as us. Maybe grazers and nothing more. Maybe they are about as intelligent as we are. We like to think we’re not alone but maybe we are alone. It’s all probability.
But what if the aliens were silicon based ,not carbon . Think of these aliens as computer AI type. Humans view distance and speed in the construct in time. The time it takes to travel from point x to y. Our limitations are based on our lifespan. If we traveled at 10 % of the speed of light the closest star would take 43 years,an entire adult lifespan. But what if our lifespan was in the thousands of years. A 43 year voyage with a 43,000 year lifespan is 1/1000 . Aliens could easily transverse space. I'm just hoping these aliens are explorers or lost. The reality that they are the highway engineers that are planning an off ramp thru our planet would be a sad ending. Thanks for the fish!
What if we are the advanced aliens and there are less advanced things on other planets?
If there is something out there with the capabilities to do what the tick tack can do, if we believe commander David Fravor as I do and we are broadcasting our location out into space why wouldn't they come check it out? He testified before congress that what he saw was not bound by the laws of physics as we understand them.
To be honest, Ryan delivered a banger once again! Love it! It's also one of the most American video ever
This.Was.Excellent. I usually don't waste time with speculative topics such as this but this presentation was so well done. Probably the best breakdown I have ever heard on the topic.
It disregarded the chances of a woke civilazation that wouldnt agree to wiping us
nice/interesting. It is probably the worst breakdown I have heard on this topic. He did do an awful lot of speculating, he was thinking inside the box though and this only starts to get interesting/make sense when you think outside of the box
Very good analysis! One thing is there might be facts we’re missing which could change those equations drastically. You can’t base anything off of vague unknowns, but it’s worth considering. There’s still alot of physics we’re not quite sure about.
My thoughts exactly! We can't also assume that for everywhere else in the universe, life occurs in the same way as here
@@rodrigofaria4498This is always my answer when asked what I think. Yes as far as we can tell, life requires the basics that Ryan mentioned, but we cannot see the whole universe, nor is what we are seeing current. I think preppie forget that if something is X number of light years away, what we observe (assuming we aren’t missing some parts of physics), is X years ago, or more. Time is a function of distance here, and visa versa, at least for us.
At the end of the day, my answer is we simply don’t know what we don’t know, and I know less than that. However, based on the size of the universe and the odds, I suspect life exists in some form, whether we recognize it as life or not, and whether “it has happened yet” (based on the speed that information travels to us, and the distance it is from us) or not.
But for now, I’ll keep living my own life, since there’s not much I can do either way.
Another consideration. Why would the aliens hide from us? It would be like humans hiding from the tree frogs. The aliens with the ability of interstellar travel would have no interest in a bunch of apes who wear clothes and who drive around in primitive metal boxes. They'd do whatever it is that they came here to do, and not give us a second thought. Except maybe swat us away if we became too much of a pest.
Look up North Sentinel Island.
@@ASlickNamedPimpback also "Murderer's Bay" in New Zealand. Life is by definition able to die.
Well, sometimes a biologist will need to hide themselves from an animal they're studying to observe its natural behaviors. If we *are* in a 1 in 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 situation where super advanced alien scientists are observing us, we would probably never notice it. (Which also means they would probably not leave a bunch of their junk around for us to find.)
To me, the most likely way we would have semi-contact with an alien civilzation is with some sort of ancient, dilapidated drone sent by a long-dead species. Something like, say, Oumuamua. (Even that is a super stretch.)
Life, so far, appears quite rare in the universe if an advanced species found us, I believe it would be high on their list to at least send probes observe us more closely -- notwithstanding issues of covering such vast distances.
In this scenario, they’re not worried we can hurt them. They’re worried that we’re bait in a trap constructed by a more technologically advanced species.
Wow. Ready good stuff in hear. More please…. of these types of videos that explain complicated systems in a simplify way.
Really good video, and a good take on the topic.
There is one thing that I don't find usually addressed - whenever a alleged observation of an alien craft occurs, it is practically always a small craft, and if crew is seen, it is just a few individuals. We have not made an observation of any larger craft to date (and by larger, I mean REALLY large; I will get to the reasons why). I wouldn't expect such a craft in the atmosphere (that's where the smaller craft would go), but I would expect one closeby, if at least some of the small craft observations are genuine.
The reason is simple: Given the insane distances, no "friendly port" on Earth and as far as we can tell, nowhere in the inner Solar System (could be hidden further away, but I somewhat doubt that either; we would already have some "wtf" observations of something seriously unnatural "over there"), therefore a smaller craft would not do, especially if crewed. It would be as if Queen Isabella sent Columbus to the Indies in just a row boat. That would apply even if FTL is available - while the dangers of travel would largely be eliminated, the dangers of the destination would still be there. And since there were allegedly observed crashes, those dangers are not apparently fully addressed.
On top of that, as stated in the video, our technological civilsation is observable only for about, give or take, hundred years directly; we can stretch that if we go with polution from the industrial revolution onward (although even that is a major stretch; until, say, WW1-WW2, a small asteroid impact would leave similar effects to the planet's atmosphere, so really, not a good reason for sending a crewed craft to investigate). That means that unless said civilisation is either spanning a very large portion of the Milky Way, or is very close, they wouldn't be here because of "us" (and if they were any of those two, we would most likely notice them by now too). Which brings us back to the forest frog analogy - I just find it very unlikely that anyone would send a row boat over the Atlantic to observe them.
Now, it is possible that a larger craft is in the outer solar system and it is sending crewed craft our way to perform observations, for whichever reason - and we only didn't observe it, because it possesses cloaking technology. I also find that a bit hard to believe, because even if the mother craft would be hidden from us, the smaller craft apparently isn't - as far as I am aware, there were no attempts reported of the alleged alien craft cloaking (in fact, given how common UAP supposedly are, they don't seem to bother with cloaking; in fact, they don't seem to bother staying out of sight, they just preffer staying out of focus), but also, I don't recall any story of an attempted retrieval of their crashed craft (something one really would want to do if they went to the lenghts of hiding themselves from our sight with cloaking a large interstellar-flight-capable spacecraft), overall, it just doesn't come together well.
Finally, let's say they are indeed not here for us, and came from a large distance to make some in-site observations. I mean, we do that too with large scientific expeditions, just see Antarctica. That runs into another hurdle - we would have to be INCREDIBLY contemporary to one another as civilisations. The timescales of the Universe are immensly large. Compare that to the technological explosion as stated in the video. If they weren't our contemporaries, they would either be here already, and would have been so for a very, very long time, or they wouldn't be "at all". While the likelihood of them being from relatively the same time period as us (we are talking hundreds of thousands of years to a few millions, if I am to be generous, compared to the 13 billion year age of the Milky Way) is not zero, it is incredibly small. And if they indeed were from the same time period as us, that would strongly imply that there would be others popping up all the time - there would have to be at least a few much older "empires" that would eventually come our way anyway. And for that, see above.
Overall, even though I strongly believe there is life elsewhere in the Universe, and probably also in the galaxy, with all likelyhood, "they" are not here. It just doesn't add up.
And finally - to quote Carl Sagan:
"Extraordinary claims require extrordinary evidence."
So far, everyone making claims about aliens have failed to produce sufficient evidence.
False.
The larger the craft, or the larger the number of craft, the more likely the hoax will be exposed.
UFOs are a strategic deception to confuse the potential adversaries of the United States, by convincing them that America might have access to alien technology.
curious how do you view the data collected by those aircraft pilots? insufficient?
@@driver3899 Out of focus undefined imagery and eyewitness testimony of phenomenon that hasn´t been seen before and lasts a few seconds.
Yea, I would call it insufficient.
Perhaps small craft are sufficient with their level of technology, so there is no need to send larger craft.
The idea that ufos flying here from other galaxies and then crashing or us seeing them makes as much sense as a ant noticing a jet flying at 30000 feet.
That arbitrarily underestimates human capabilities and overestimates theirs.
Best unbiased explanation of Alien life I've ever heard. Thanks Ryan.
this is a better explanation of the great filter concept then the original great filter explanation i've seen lmao
The best conclusion is that we might be the smartest creatures in the universe.
That’s a pretty low bar.... For the entire universe. Plus, if we’re accounting for the Fermi Paradox. It’s likely if any other intelligent being existed they are either way too far or died out long ago.
Or dumbest
Just us and the Pakleds.
If we define intelligence as galaxy level space travel, there are no known intelligent species.
Reversing this logic, there may be more intelligent species who for whichever reasons haven't become massive space farers.
we are the Universe thinking about itself
Those zoom in and zoom out scale examples are the best way to get scale for me.
Thank you, Ryan. Being able to link this excellent video will save me from rolling my eyes clean out of my head.
Thanks for another entertaining and down to earth explanation of a "sciency" concept that appears to be difficult for many to grasp. Also you have come to the same conclusion as me which means you must be very wise and competent. Wait a minute I am not so competent...
This guy is an intelligence analyst as Claudewitz says "half of intelligence is too late the other half is wrong"
Super high quality video, and a-tier memeable analogies. Loved it!
I watched a guy with a metal detector walk around the Roswell crash site for hours and eventually he found a twisted piece of metal. It was tested by UNM metallurgists and came back as 1930s aircraft aluminum
legend has it the army went back to crash sites and spread trash around to cover anything they missed. read american cosmic. very good read and answers a ton of questions. also, the assumption that pieces of a craft may be detectable is an assumption.
@@ernie8419 I can say very confidently that never occurred. A huge majority of the pieces he has found over the years are one type of thin sheeting, very tiny and shredded from some type of impact. He also has a small number of boot eyelets and other metal bits from the soldiers on cleanup duty. There was clearly an effort made to remove everything, and only the smallest and most dispersed pieces remain.
@@ernie8419 The assumption that there were aliens and alien ships is also an assumption. No credible evidence for any alien visitation has been found.
@@ernie8419 This guy talking about 'legends' and wife tales when documents have been released what exactly crashed there. Just boggles the mind how poeple keep sweeping facts and hard evidence under the rug to keep their movie fantasies alive.
@@nosferatu5documents released by known liars are hardly proof of anything.
So well done. Yours was one of the best discussions on this subject I’ve seen.
Making projections about an intelligent life intentions is like commenting the moves of pro chess players after having read the Wikipedia's chess article.
There are a lot of things that can be reasonably speculated on. Eg. They would be exposed to the same laws of physics, chemistry and evolution. With the later, the selection pressures may be different but the rules of the game will be the same.
@somethinglikethat2176 A computer is also based on the law of physics, yet trying to understand what computation it is doing based on its circuitry is a very difficult task. Add the possibility that a superintelligence would likely use quantum properties such as non-locality and interferences, which would imply that there is no chance to understand them without having mastered quantum computers ourselves.
This is really well done.
This is the UFO or UAP video I have been waiting for and it far exceeded my expectations, thanks Ryan!
Fraver is an honest man. Grusch gives me a red flag kind of feel. But I don't know.
I have to say, I’m glad I found your channel. It’s so good to find a RUclipsr who doesn’t fall prey to the fantastical. I definitely appreciate it👍
Are you sure that astronauts could even make it to Mars without radiation destroying their intestinal function?
My admiration for this man has risen ten folds.
Awful video; this government propagandist called the uap witnesses liars.
Lets not get carried away :)
Very well put Ryan, loved the nation map idea 🗺️ across this example 😑👌
I love the logic and the fact that you add the data constraints. :) great job