Why the NFL (constantly) misses on Quarterbacks.
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- Опубликовано: 22 мар 2024
- Drake Maye is just the next college quarterback for the NFL to miss on. His film is all over the place, and could lead to a team hitting the lottery, or firing everybody in their front office. Game Film is incredibly subjective, which is why the NFL constantly misevaluates college quarterbacks coming out of the draft, and Maye could easily be that next misevaluation. What are his strengths? His weaknesses? And what might the NFL be missing on his tape? This week’s episode uses the coaches all 22 to analyze University of North Carolina’s Quarterback Drake Maye as he prepares for the 2024 NFL draft.
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Music:
🔷 Intro: Cyril Nikitin "Epic Movie Trailer Main"
🔷 Yondo Beats “Morning Sun”
🔷 Outro: OneTone Beats "Deception"
Thanks for watching “Why The NFL (Constantly) Misses On Quarterbacks.”
#drakemaye #nfldraft #nfl 
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Hi everybody, thank you so so much for another incredible season. I usually take a week off after the season, but decided to push it back a bit cause I was so excited to dive into this draft. I appreciate you all helping me grow the channel to where it is, and I can’t wait to come back in 2 weeks and keep things rocking. Cheers to y’all, I couldn’t do it without each and every one of you! #CTESPN 👊
Drake is another Herbert/Love a team like the redskins will destroy and ruin him like they did Howell(Seahawks fleeced them). But a team like the Patriots will unlock everything in him and could very well be back to a contender sooner than later. Jayden will be a massive bust and injury prone with the redskins I guarantee that he takes hits no QB should and is lighter than Bust Young.
great talents cant overcome terrible coaching
Football IQ does not exist
we need the jayden daniels film
shut up AI analyst
It seems to me that the hardest part about evaluating a quarterback, is not evaluating his situation, but reducing all the variables in his situation, down to just what the player was able to control.
👉👃
@@logannewberger9112???
@@Chris1200923he probably saying “right on the nose”
@@peopleknowme1714 oh okay i actually fw that. good catch man
I have a perfect example of this because not only are those variables there for me to link videos to, but every analyst prefers to continue overlooking them. So the measurables are there, readily available yet everyone avoids looking at 'em?
Yeah. Here we go.
ruclips.net/video/OsVr3dQMUzg/видео.html is one of a series made by someone obsessed with a team, so they try to take into account the variables making their QB look bad. A perfect example is how the Bears' o-line is rated around mid-level in protecting the run.
What even he fails to point out though is that Every Positive Run is added to the o-line's production. Even if that run is the end result of busted pass coverage. Fields is elevating his o-line every time he evades sacks & they get the credit.
At 22:45 of ruclips.net/video/FiiK21VzI_o/видео.html we see why he needs to. One player smashes into his own teammate avoiding his own block & taking another off of his. While this isn't typical, the LT simply ignoring the existence of edge rushers occurs Every Game. So the Bears regularly *force* Fields to have to run on passing plays.
Through _their play-calling._ This was evident when, after he suddenly started doing what appeared to eb Spacing Out & not throwing to open receivers. Everyone knew what was up the instant the Bears didn't take him into concussion protocol: the only possible way they could have _known_ Fields wasn't concussed was if he was executing the plays As Called. Fan reaction confirmed this. Everyone said that this was the team Simplifying The Offense for Fields. So Everyone At First Acknowledged That this was deliberate play-calling.
Then when people realized that this narrative implicated the Bears' coaching in deliberately sabotaging Fields, this narrative was dropped. & while another false one replaced it, the only way to Never Admit We Saw It was to never look at the play-calling again. So everyone refuses to. Alex here included.
& what was that second narrative? "Fields can't read defenses." Well what do you know? _That_ one was debunked ruclips.net/video/QuhUbISnr8s/видео.html before he ever took a snap in the NFL. This _exacerbates_ people's desire to turn a blind eye.
See, this all *_required that_* You The Fans consciously turn a blind eye to the play-calling in regards to fields. As a result, y'all feel a twinge of guilt by looking at it in regards to any QB. So you all avoid it repeatedly so as not to trigger that twinge.
Good luck assessing anyone while avoiding going through all the steps necessary to do so.
If you want to see a clear and recent example of QB drafting not being an exact science, you only need to look at a Tale of Two Quarterbacks known as *Trey Lance and Brock Purdy.*
There were also six quarterbacks drafted ahead of Tom Brady. I don't know if you've heard of that guy, but some people say he was pretty good.
Dude I always see your comments for years now I almost always agree with what you say to lol
Tony Romo, Kurt Warner, Matt Hasselbeck, Marc Bulger, Mark Brunell and Jeff Garcia in the 90s/00s alone. It just shows NFL puts far too much stock into hype, alum and potential instead of fundamentals like footwork, anticipation and reading coverages. Which is why we ended up with guys like Zach Wilson, Trey lance, Jamarcus Russell and Matt leinart who couldn’t do any of those fundamental stuff.
@@ers-cd5ln I was just about to comment this. I see this dude's comments on damn near every sport-related video I watch
Please slob on Purdy’s nuts harder, dude is the epitome of a system qb. He is not a bad qb by any means, but he is a game manager not game changer dont talk about him like he is on the same level as like Mahomes, Josh allen or Lamar Jackson. He is not even Trevor Lawrence level
That whip route in the endzone looked like a DROP 😮😮😮😮
Word, Maye's feet are planted and it's a good throw. Bad example of his footwork hating spree. I think the coaches at UNC are trash cause Howell had the same issue with footwork and moving to the side after dropping back and creating his own pressure. Maye will be a Commander and hopefully the King can teach him how to play real ball
True but that should also be a layup for a QB. He should set that ball down perfectly in his hands. Notice how the WR basically has to jump at the ball to make an attempt. This is not ideal. When you have Jerry rice, Chris Carter, OBJ, Justin Jefferson, cooper kupp, Antonio brown etc it will work but what about when you have kadarius toney, Valdez scantling, aghlor, sanu, Ginn, etc 😂
@@mikehatten5738that’s 100% WR fault for trying to body catch , any other decent WR would extend to use just hands so he put it in a good spot. any more left and it might get swatted down
@@solephisticated5579 you’re proving a valuable point right now that drake maye the leader of his team the QB doesn’t understand his teammates enough to chose the right pass for his guy to capitalize on it. That’s more damning because a QB is expected to know/process more info than any other position on the field. The mental aspect of the game is more important than the physical in the QB realm. He has a lot of mental mistakes if you watch his tapes. Lots of WTF would you think that let alone try it moments.
@@pogiboy7478 eh i dont think the footwork is great there (people are right to hate on his footwork) but the throw is definitely not terrible and it is in fact a drop. Could have had slightly better placement but it's a drop nonetheless. I think the video could have used a better example than this
“Why are you drafting a quarterback that doesn’t just have bad footwork, but has no footwork?”
Pre-draft evaluation on Patrick Mahomes.
And what pick did Mahomes go and who picked him to have him sit a year behind Smith?
@@RampioreRegis 16th to the Lakers
A lot of wows on his film and a lot of like wtf are you doing
Tbh it’s kinda like Trevor Lawrence’s film where sometimes the processing is like wtf you doing lol. But I think he’ll be fine. If you can throw over the middle of the field in college it usually translates well. Which is why I’m so worried about Daniels lol
Sounds a lot like josh allen lol
@@bigtshotmusic mayes film is better than allen’s out of college. So if may can develop like allen he’ll be fine. he doesn’t have allen’s ceiling tho
You don't watch film. You watch RUclips videos buddy.
@@LARRY113Z A22*
My grandfather was a major league scout and statistician. He felt like the thing scouts missed on was what happened when you put a pitcher into a cold/windy situation. So many players looked great in California / Florida weather and they got the yips when they had to face the elements and that turned into them spiraling with mixed confidence for years.
You have to scout players that have experience playing well in your elements.
Another reason why JJ McCarthy could be the best qb in this draft he grew in an area where weather is consistently rough and then went to Michigan
@@blankname6629 JJ is ass doesn't have to do anything
Good point it's def a situation that happens a lot, but then you get a qb like Aaron Rodgers that grew up and played in Cal before getting drafted to Green Bay where the elements are completely opposite. He thrived in that situation and there are several other players who have done it as well.
@@aidantoogood6627 I think playing on the bench allowed Rodgers to ease in and acclimate himself to the territory. Rodgers also played in the Bay Area which has wind and chilly weather. He had games against Oregon, Washington, Colorado in college that gave him some prep work for the NFL. (Wind & Wind Chill are the biggest factors imho )
The problem is when you are seen as a Top 10 pick, dominate in SEC play, and play in year 1 ... just having a 4 week stretch of not throwing well in windy/cold games can really spiral into a dark period.
@@blankname6629zzzz….
One gripe with the video - I don't think Maye "missed" the receiver on the out route at the goaline. He led the receiver just A BIT further than ideal. The receiver got his hands WELL on it and dropped it bad.
And he set his feet perfectly for the throw
@@eats4cheaps305 He does set his feet, and the WR does drop it. But he's also got happy feet in the pocket. And the point is, yea he may have got his feet set properly and delivered an on-time ball THIS TIME, but what about next time? The very next play vs NC State his happy feet cause him to be late on a throw that was otherwise an easy 1st on a comeback.
You guys love to give excuses. It’s not just one play. That’s why your excuse doesn’t matter and why your a fan and not a scout
@@BraveStarEric Someone who IS a scout, like this RUclipsr purports to be, ought to be able to find a play that supports his analysis. That play did not show what he said it showed.
@@dugw15 Yes it did show what he was trying to show. Happy feet. This leads to late and off target throws.
My take on it is that a very good qb has skills, like football iq and defense reading, that can't be physically measured on paper, combined this with team being so allergic to developing players nowadays, prefering the sink or swim methods
Yeah, look at Rodgers, who sat behind Favre, and now Love, who day behind Rodgers.
@@shorewallThe Packers are also a competent organization that scouts certain traits in quarterbacks that project well in the NFL.
There’s 15 franchises quarterbacks in the nfl and generally 4-5 guys picked in the first round. The supply and demand are at odds
@@chicagodude8888 tom clements is the best qbc in the nfl
I have always thought a IQ QB like Brady, Rodgers, Manning, Brees were what you wanted. Everyone nowadays wants a running back QB, they suck, all they do is get injured and throw picks
@@chicagodude8888Yeah, on average you should see a new (future) franchise qb from every class, that keeps it at 15 franchise QBs in the league at any time if their average career length is 15 years. Every 15 years 15 guys retire and 15 guys come in.
Green Bay does it right. I think a lot of these recent “busts” were just victims of not having the opportunity to learn as a back up.
Most college QBs are lucky to play two full seasons before entering the NFL and too often they’re expected to start and make an impact, right away.
Also, if you don’t build the proper offense around your QB or if you scrimp on your defense, to pay your QB, you can’t then place all the expectations on one player. The Lions have built a team that complements Goff and doesn’t break the bank.
Agreed. I DO think QB eval is inherently more difficult. But I believe the bigger issue is a lack of development. Rookie wage scale incentivizes teams to give up on QBs “early”
Yea I like that. But some of these guy be having good teams in college and they actual play get exposed in the NFL.
Even look at Geno Smith.. He just waited years and slowly developed.
I think alot of these failed QBs will resurface as starters after sitting a few years
@@brandonphillips9889Baker Mayfield might be the lastest example.
"Also, if you don’t build the proper offense around your QB or if you scrimp on your defense, to pay your QB, you can’t then place all the expectations on one player. "
Another thing teams seem to forget.
Scheme and talent must work together.
The 2020 QB class really spoiled us
herbert had pep hamilton
And 2018
I hope this young man goes to a place where he can refine and develop. He’s got the talent, and the size. He’s like a bigger Zach Wilson and I don’t mean that as an insult by any means.
I know Zach Wilson is a popular punching bag, but as someone who watched him at BYU and then his first NFL games, he had/has the game to be a really good QB. People forget that his first NFL game was a near comeback with two touchdowns, a 2pt scamper, and that was all after being absolutely murdered on at least 2 of what may have been 6 sacks…
Give Maye some patience and coach up his footwork, and he could be awesome.
wilson sucks and so does maye get off nuts
I'll Pass
I think the most important quality is not physical but mental abitlity, Fields is probably the best example for this
Fields had severely better mechanics than maye and they have only improved in the NFL. He was thinking too much with Getsy. When he stopped overthinking he won games.
To counter mac jones had mental ability but low physical ability and he sucked. There are thresholds to both they need to meet.
Mac also was a bad teammate so this only snowballed the issue.@@codysmith1915
Yep. Fields all the physical ability in the world and almost nothing between the ears for the position; not in college and not as a pro.
Tom Brady ? Mentality is everything in football
Footwork is the biggest change mahomes made too. He could’ve never played the quick release quick read game he’s played the last two years his first two years. His short range accuracy was suspect. He had happy feet nonstop every game. With coaching he quieted that aspect down and became a top 5 all time(probably already #3 imo) and can hit people at every level. Now he plays like Brady. So it’s definitely possible for maye.
“…Till The very first Sunday” ✍🏾🔥got goosebumps! Great video
Mahomes really changed drafting in recent years. He however also show the importance of having a plan and a functional coaching staff to develop a prospect. Even Zach Wilson may be able to succeed if he went to a better situation than the Jets. Trey Lance was always gonna be a gamble to begin with due to opponents, which add one more level of complexity.
The biggest reason’s I think the NFL gets it wrong a lot with QB’s is because they overvalue athleticism and the plays that QB’s in college actually make. The main reason I think is they don’t take into account the surrounding talent on said QB’s team in college, the style of offense and the absolute main factor is reps of throwing the ball in college and years of starting experience in college. I’ve noticed a trend with these QB’s that have hit is they all throw over 800+ attempts in college and have 3 years of starting experience in which they improve over every season and there isn’t some anomaly season. The biggest thing I look at is from the first year they start I look for only the flaws/weakness and mechanics in the QB and then go to the next season and see if they fixed any of them and so on. To the reps part about QB’s having 800+ attempts in college Josh Allen is the only outlier in that in which he had under 800 attempts. Mahomes 1,349, Purdy 1,467, Hurts 1,047, Herbert 1,239, Stroud 830, Burrow 945 now it’s not an exact science of course but it’s a pretty good baseline I use. A lot of these QB’s have massive years just before they get drafted and they bust in the NFL and fans go wtf how did he bust and I think it comes down to not alot of consistent improvement year over year with these prospects and you get an anomaly year of great success. It’s one of the main reasons I’m completely sold on Caleb Williams being that guy his mental IQ is absurd for football and he works hard to improve every season along with every game. I’ve watched him since Oklahoma and he never made the same bad play twice within a game, week, month and year again and he battled so much adversity with his all time awful defense and trying to be perfect every single play. His Notre Dame game everyone likes to use to shit on him and say he’s bad or will bust etc was the testament of everything he is and will be he threw 3 picks in the 1st half all were different throws and reads and in the 2nd half he came out and balled and his WR’s dropped and fumbled a lot and he kept battling and didn’t let it bother him at all. His 1st pick was a overthrow to a MOF seam route to the TE over the LB and underneath the safety while he was under pressure later on in that game he threw that same exact ball and hit it.
The media inflates these kids and franchises are so eager to win they risk everything every few years
I always learn so much from you every time I watch your analysis. Thank you!
Thanks brother!
Great detailed analysis. Not going by results but really picking the play apart. Thanks you show us the subtleties that we don't notice. The little things like him bouncing back and into into the rush instead of staying in the pocket as a casual fan I would never notice that.
Yes! Thank you, Alex! Been waiting for this.
It’s math. They draft like 20 a year, and there is only about 10 spots TOTAL of top performers. So every 5 years crunching 100 prospects into 10 spots that orgs are excited to have means 90% are just going to be underwhelming.
I think it's more like 50%. I believe out of the last 60 QB's taken in the first round, only around 30 were successful starters
This channel is such an oasis in the offseason for people invested in football. Can't wait until you drop your next spotlight. I know you work super hard on these gems. Cheers. :)
Thanks TLD! Always supporting bro 👊
Great analysis. Keep up man!!
I think the dudes got a lot of potential. No one talks about it, but he had significantly worse talent around him than all of the other qbs expected to go in the first round, didn’t even have a WR1 until halfway through the season.
If we’re comparing Drake maye and Jaden Daniels, first two years of starting QB college football, it’s not even a conversation Drake May is a much better player . Now give him two more starting years and he would be on par but most likely much better in his decision-making passing the football and Daniels
Nigga stfu they in the same draft class rn daniels is better and it’s not close
I see Maye as a Jacob Eason type. He's a guy w/ incredible physical tools, but he doesn't seem to be able to put it together, and his big arm gets him into trouble. There will always be these guys, and League coaches will always have a belief that they can be coached up, but we've seen, more often than not, it's highly unlikely.
This reinforces my hesitance on Maye.
He diesn't seem to have the instinct to move away from pressure and actially its the opposite. He seems ro continually move toward it.
That, and his happy feet say leave him for someone else.
He does instinctually move from pressure. The drop backs into pressure is a footwork issue where has to reset his base not an instinct issue.
Couldnt agree more. I have agreed with all your film on this year's qb class except for penix. I also love your take on every class essentialy being a gamble. It's freaking rough.
Agreed, I really like Penix and think he's gonna play in the league for a long time.
I’m curious how would your breakdown of Jayden Daniels be after his year two??Give Maye 2 more years in college, 2 top 20 1st round WR picks, ball placement and footwork would be a lot better than now same as Jayden. Just saying that Has to come in to account one has been playing for five years. The other one has two years playing.
A lot of ifs and maybes you not living in real life
7:42 this coverage is like retro bowl coverage when they send cover 0 slot receiver is always open.
"If we can clean up his footwork his potential is through the roof" now where have I heard that before...
with mahomes,herbert,and josh allen
Pleased to find this excellent video, thanks Alex.
Fair presentation of the challenges in QB evals, using Drake Maye.
On the end zone pass (4:45) his footwork was poor but he needed to lead with some air.
His game film has problems with inconsistent recognition, anticipation and reactions under pressure.
As an NFL coaching staff, how many issues do you believe that you can fix?
The 3 Lion example is poor play design. 3 slants out of that formation with all of them cutting at the same time, at the same angle. It’d be easier for the QB to read, if the innermost WR did a 1-step slant that was super shallow.
These old-school West Coast concepts need to be updated. Everyone from Kurt Warner to Brett Koleman has pointed this out.
That throw in overtime to his receiver that hit his receiver in the chest... he set his feet perfectly before he threw. That was a next level set and throw and his reciever dropped a perfect pass.
You know a quarterback is good when he is consistent, that he has won on every level. He wins when he not suppose win. He inspires his teammates, it's it factor. That is so rare that maybe only 5 to 10 in the history of football.
Talking about Maye's footwork being improved! I thought the same thing about Justin Fields; nobody said anything about it in his 3 years in Chicago. Without proper footwork, how can your throw clock help you with your progressions from 1 to 2? There is a reason why drops have step counts. They are supposed to be based on the #1's route! Read some Mark Schofield, he can break that stuff down so easy that it's hard to forget!
I wonder how much of QB play has been ruined by the constant use of the shotgun...back in the 9ers glory days it was all about timing and to my knowledge they never used the shotgun formation.
Coaching and not forcing these guys to start in year 1/2 are just as important. Good vid.
Good QBs can start immediately. Running Backs playing at the QB position are a lost cause.
How did that work with Houston's QB?
Big deal is the system and what they are coached to do. Justin Herbert was clearly a big strong and mobile dude. But Mario Crystoball didn't trust him to do anything but screens and bootlegs 95% of the time. Vs Zach Wilson who looked like an elite pocket movement and reader of defenses lost all his confidence and couldn't handle the speed of the game or any any any pressure at all. It sometimes is a lottery
Maybe there's something there with Herbert. Two different OC coached him and came up with the same answer: give him a bunch of curls. They both did not implement a lot of concepts that explore different depths of the field and different route timings. Instead, it was a bunch of curls in the same depth of the field, don't think just throw the guy who's open. Predictable. Maybe is the lack of running threat, maybe it's bad pass protection. But maybe there's some limitation in Herbert too. I'm just saying it's weird two different coaches thought this was the most productive system they could implement.
Did you watch Herbert in college? He was not good at reading the field. Crystoball dumbed the offense for him.
@@ladarriusjennings8914 But dumbing the offense down doesn't mean taking away the long ball. He has a great throwing arm
@@10thletter40 In a sense it does. Most long balls are made in scheme. As scene in this video where they schemed that post open from play action. Maye through a bad ball though. If you scheme for half the field like Oregon did that year, it makes it harder to scheme up a deep ball.
@@LightiningHobo Too bad the OC that worked best was only with him for his rookie year and took the job to the Eagles and ultimately became HC of the Colts. But at the same time Staley is also to blame for keeping the staff that sabotaged Herbert's pass game on a weekly basis. Along with Telesco for not picking up talent on both sides to make things easy on Herbert. Far too often fans of their own team want to blame the young talented QB when the team under performs. But what is the QB suppose to do when they are the best player in that assembled roster?
GREAT VIDEO THOUGH
I'm not a Maye fan, at all. He has tons of promise but I think it's gonna be rough, really rough, to start at least. Whether it gets better depends, but his lack of accuracy on many throws, poor footwork, and a seemingly poor understanding of reading leverages and defenses pre and post snap concerns me. He makes great throws but it seems almost random when it happens. I think I'd put both JJ and Michael Penix above him.
Great video
It isn’t because there are so many factors to be taken into account during meticulous game analysis, it’s because there are so many psychological changes for QBs that can happen around a jump to the NFL and that development is simply not predictable. (And psychology is the most important factor for any QB success at any level.)
I think the most important thing is what media (content creator or corporate) can’t see, the interviews and meetings. If I were a scout, the intangibles would be the most important since the recent greats (Mahomes, Allen, Lamar, Stroud) became different players than they were in college and needed the mentality to listen and work hard at improving their craft
Maye had a TD from last year (I wish I could remember the game) where he drifts to his right on the dropback to set up what I believe was a fade ball. One of my buddies I was watching him with started losing it because he hates when QBs bail from clean pockets. What my buddy missed was that it was a zero blitz and UNC was in empty. Maye knew this and slid right, throwing a clean ball from a great base and improved throw angle.
I will also say that UNC changed OCs prior to this past season. His original OC was Phil Longo, who is known for not really emphasizing footwork. He wants his guy playing loose and reactive. The new OC (blanking on his name) ran a really stale and static offense this year. Maye had a weak OL and until Tez was granted elgibility, the WR room was not good.
I think Maye has some stuff to work on, but I think he can fix most of his "issues" within his first season, if not many of them during Training Camp.
Excellent video, so much of evaluation and for us fans lol, is subjective. I do see Maye as boom or bust and it will largely depend on where he lands and if he can become consistent.
*Biggest Non-Talent Reasons I Can Think Of*
1. Drive & Motivation v. Peers
2. Room for Improvement (Cieling v. Floor)
3. Mental Fortitude & Confidence Through Adversity
4. Adjustment & Versatility
5. Situation (Scheme & Personnel Fit, Front Office & Staff Support)
6. Luck (Self & Team Injuries)
We need to go back to sitting QB’s a year and letting them learn the system and learn from the veteran qb’s. Starting them in year 1 hardly ever works out
Yup Mannings are rare 😂
Wow I just found your channel. Your underrated. I liked and subbed
Same here
Thank you!!
The vast chasm that is the level of competition between the NFL vs college would seem to be the obvious answer. Even very good college teams consist mostly of players who will be going straight to desk jobs after college.
Lots of college teams have strong offenses, but the main difference is that NFL defenses are much tougher than CFB defenses: bigger, stronger, and faster pass rushers especially.
As an armchair scout, I pay a lot of attention to how many seconds from snap to throw does the qb average, and does it lead to success? That is the trait that made Tom Brady successful, and it's a trait that makes the OL seem better than they are. Plus it demonstrates an understanding of what the play is trying to accomplish, and an understanding of what the defense is doing.
Nice vid
One of the biggest problems is quality practice time in the pros. OTA’S and camp is not real game experience. Preseason in water down practice. A incoming quarterback may face other quarterbacks who won’t be helpful. The pressure to win is crazy and the rookie contract plays into it. Then college ball is seven on seven passing. So many ways to fail. The NFL is truly the best of the best. Quarterback wash outs have always been high. Its the speed of the game. 2.5 seconds to read the defense and find your progressions. Tight windows. A different ball then college. Camp is not the old two a days. Quarterbacks don’t get three to five years to sit behind the starter. Top quarterbacks don’t want the next quarterback in the room. Teams who are drafting high are not good so you put a rookie quarterback in a bad situation. All lead to the failure rate. A lot of the top quarterbacks drafted have talent its what happens next. Teams take a chance on the skill and hope to get it right.
Scouts look at the outside physical traits. Purdy isn't 6 feet 4 and 240 pounds. They need to start looking at intangibles. They are also expected to be thrown into the fire right away. GB sat Love for 3 years. Some qbs don't have enough college experience also like Trey Lance.
I think the toughest part of evaluating QBs is the cerebral aspect. It's tough to know how a QB prepares for a game and how well he can stay poised under pressure to execute that gameplan. Arm talent and speed are what scouts salivate over but they whiff more than they hit. Trey Lance, Justin Fields, and Zach Wilson got all that hype but I never understood why people loved Lance or Fields. Sure, they were tempted by the speed but reading defenses, throwing accurately, and commanding the offense is what good QBs do. And to think the best QBs to do it were often overlooked. Manning didn't get the celebrity treatment Leaf got even though he was picked 1 overall. Brady, you already know. Brees, you already know. Purdy is the latest in that category. Heck, Mahomes was overshadowed by Deshaun AND Alex Smith when he got drafted. So aside from Andrew Luck, I haven't seen scouts hit on their hype at all
You can measure a lot about QBs weight height arm strength speed , but there are things you can't measure , like how well they think under pressure , or how Injury prone they are , or how much heart they have , a lot of intangible's are involved
Absolutely excellent video, pointing out why grading film is so subjective...and difficult. Is it a + or - to mis-read a route combo but still get a completion anyway. Is it a + or - to not hit an easy completion on 3rd down but still manage to come away with a big gain downfield? Is it a + or - to have happy feet and drift into pressure but still complete a Dig over the middle?
Awesome stuff.
Thank you brother!!
What I look for in order:
1) Clutch- Do they keep their poise when the game is on the line.
2) Awareness- does he consider the situation and always know what needs to be done.
3)Read defenses- the other things don’t matter if he doesn’t know where to go.
4) Accuracy- this talent alone makes guys like Rodgers, Mahomes and Stroud good even if a read is wrong or the receiver is covered.
I think it's the speed of processing - i.e. points (2 and 3) above - that is most indicative or responsible for NFL success. You have to be able to understand/recognize quickly and decide quickly.
Having clutch as your number one is exactly why fans shouldn't be scout's lol
@@joshwilner5622 50.6% games are decided by 8 points or less. Looking throughout history to today, all the best teams have a QB with this trait.
I know it is unconventional, But I think they should consider having him put his left foot forward and do a quick 2,5 chop step, It would center him, and keep him from drifting.
Great video Alex. Remember a few years back when reports of all the bizaar questions they would get asked at the combine and in interviews? As if they are logging these answers to find some weird common connection in winners. I dont know but the first time I saw Purdy come in against Miami I knew he had "it". Also saw it with Herbert instantly. PS still butt hurt about the Superbowl.
Also organization has so much to do with it. Put the same guy in a good or bad situation and it changes everything. Geno got super unlucky to wind up in NYC. Imagine if he had a better team working with him from the start. How many never get enough chances?
For real. Look at Bryce. Not saying he would’ve been generational but he’s in literally the worst situation possible with one of the worst O lines in the league and his best option to throw to us a washed Adam Thelian. Hopefully the panthers can improve next year and they seem to be trying but that’s just negligent to put a QB in that horrible scenario.
I remember back in 2015 Paxton Lynch was a can’t miss prospect 🤦
I’m worried how much this sounds like Sam Darnold.
Oh "bad when good or good when bad...that sounds like what I heard about Zach Wilson too
Good video 👍
Thanks brother!
It’s the situation the quarterbacks are put into
Play by play is he making the right decision with the ball and does he have the arm to put it where the receiver can make a catch.
I think some of the plays your not taking into account other factors. The missed touchdown against Duke was because his o lineman wiffed so badly he was moving out of his own linemans way to block the defnder coming around the edge. When he made that little jump cut before throwing. Also he was in a new offense so alot of times him and his receievers werent on the same page. When you run option routes you and your reciever have to read the coverage the same way. He also did not have the greatest O line or reciever play. His best weapon missed games due to NCAA eligibility. I suggest you go back and watch the 2022 tape and see how comfortable and confident he looks in that offense. I think its better that he didnt have a ton of time to throw or weapons around him because in the NFL the talent gap is much smaller. For instance Brock pury looked like a mych worse qb when there was no CMC, no Trent Williams, No deebo. He still had Aiyuk, kittle, and a legit running game around him in that time. Most qbs would look good in his system especially since he played in a similar one in college. Mayes situation is one that is more typical to an NFL one. 1 talented reciever, avreage o line, good running back. Id rathe have a guy like that than a Jayden Daniels type dude who had everything come easy with his O line, weapons, and good play calling.
I believe it’s important to accentuate a young guys strengths so his flaws might over time develop into something workable. Look to Lamar winning from the pocket, Stroud being a playmaker or Mahomes taking his checkdowns. With time these guys can complete their game but their strengths have to remain strong
Lamar being a pocket passer has always been a thing even back in his college days. Thing is he arrived with the Ravens with an offensive staff under Greg Roman who only saw Lamar as a 3rd running back. Along with the GM not surrounding Lamar with receiver talent to grow as a passer. If anything Harbaugh should have replaced Roman by 2019 after Lamar's MVP performance season and actually tried finding an OC who wants to open the field up like Monken did last season. Along with getting better WR talent. Because last season Lamar was still got to do his running stuff in spread formations and with a talent like Zay Jones who was arguably his best safety blanket he's ever had as a receiver outside of Andrews.
@@t4d0W It’s just an example of what I wouldn’t categorize as a strength but became another skill set in his favor. I understand the Ravens offensive evolution well enough
@@blakty2 That is the thing. its always been a skillset in his favor but the Ravens were just too slow to move on from it. Especially to a point when opposing defenses can legit read what the play sequence will be for the Ravens offense getting to 3rd and long based on whose getting subbed in (during GRO's era). If anything the 'weakness' Lamar started to slowly shore up last year was his deep ball accuracy because his passing offense opened up and he had more options to see who can win on match ups beyond 20 yards.
i think a lot of it is the differences in the game between amateur and professional. you're guessing if they can adjust and take on a lot more.
There are 200 QBs in college today who would win the Super Bowl with 4 sec to throw and Okla receivers open by 4 yards.
I kinda liked that pass at 3:45 tbh
I like Maye, yes he needs to be coached up but he had the worst talent around him of any of the qbs that are considered 1st or 2nd round picks. He had to do more with less, clean his footwork and i think he's going to be good. As a Pats fan i want Jayden though
All great points from a college standpoint. Next huge issue is where they end up in the NFL.
Here's one big reason, those making the final decision don't actually watch college football. Let's look at JJ McCarthy, the day after his college career finished he was universally seen as late day 2 pick AT BEST, this is the evaluation given by those that actually watched him play football as it happened. Now he's risen to maybe the 3rd or 4th overall pick! This meteoric rise is based on some interviews, a couple of workouts and metric sh*t ton of hype, and not on how he actually plays football. If he turns out to be a mediocre starter or a career back up, he'll be considered a huge bust. But in reality he'd just ended up being exactly what those evaluators who actually watched him play said he'd be.
This is a big reason so many players get over (and under) drafted.
Another example, CJ Stroud Vs Bryce Young. That Stroud turned out to be much, much better than Young wasn't a surprise to some of us. That Young had some major issues that would be hard to get rid of also wasn't a surprise (like that he does poorly under pressure). But David Tepper fell for the hype, fell for what his own eyes seen (the combine, pro day and some interviews his team did) instead of trusting those that watch these two play all of their games.
WHO IS YOUNG PLAYING WITH....CJ HAD OK TALENT WHILE YOUNG HAD NOTHING...TAPE DONT LIE
@@dariusewing6962. No one thought any of CJ’s receivers would be that good, and they got better because of him. No one wanted Tank Dell either. He did all of this with no run game and an average at best line.
@@dariusewing6962 tape don’t lie indeed. Watch the Bears, Vikings, Buccs twice, Falcons twice, Saints twice, and Colts game. 169/289 58%, 1,437 passing yards, 5.0 YPA, 3 TDs and 6 INTs average passer rating in the 60s. 9 games and he played garbage in every single one 2 of these were primetime. All winnable within a score or two and he failed to deliver.
Media boards aren't real. The teams have had grades on every QB since a year ago, and it doesn't really change unless a guy shows something new. Film can show roughly how fast, strong, flexible, etc. every prospect is. Interviews might be the last big impact, but it's mostly in terms of clearing up film and establishing if a player's even interested.
Bryce Young arguably was the best player on offense roster where none of his receivers could separate and Frank Reich's play calling was super fraudulent with inside zone runs with highly paid RB Miles Sanders. It doesn't help Young is not a hyper athlete either since he wasn't used to out maneuvering pro level EDGE players as one of the guys out of The Shire. Meanwhile Stroud had a coaching staff who knew how to use modern principles to problem solve shit. Sadly Pierce didn't work out with the run scheme but Singletary did. Plus his main receiver targets could separate by themselves in tall ass Nico Collins and speedster Tank Dell. Everyone else could also get schemed to get opened. Defense was also stout because DeMeco is that good of a coach. Stroud clearly had much more help which magnified the performance he could consistently put out weekly even against high variance moments like his entire O-line being injured for the first 8 weeks.
Because the supply doesn’t meet the demand. Quarterback is at more of a premium now than ever and any quarterback with a pedestrian top 20 ceiling is going top 10.
4-5 qbs taken in the first with roughly 15 franchise quarterbacks in the league, it’s not surprising a third round tape like Kenny Pickett is a bust. He wouldn’t have been if he was drafted appropriately.
Fit matters. A good quarterback needs a good team.
I found this to be an incredible video. Well done, brother. When your team is in the QB market and you watch and read everything you can when it comes to the QBs in the draft, it becomes incredibly apparent that 2 people see the same play differently.
Now, I do want to say something that may be controversial, but shouldn’t be. I don’t think people take their gut feelings into consideration enough when scouting. Drake Maye *looks* like what a successful NFL QB is. Tall. Thickly Built. Big arm. Whip smart. Good pocket movement. Very good college production. Good from the start. Big time throws. Throws over the middle of the field.
Those are all hallmarks of good NFL QBs over the last 50 years. 6’4 190 pounds, runs a 4.4, takes 4 years to become draftable, takes massive hits that someone his size can’t take, and get sacked way more than anyone should, that guy is not the type of guy that makes it in the NFL.
lol
Thank you brother!
Alex, you didn't consider the factor of organization. Yes, players matter, but unless you are a slam dunk prospect bad coaching and organization environment will mess you up. If the Browns drafted Mahomes 2017, it's very likely he's average today that's from a Browns fan. It's no coincidence Jets and Da Bears can't get a good QB. I believe even if Tom Brady was drafted into a shit show team he won't pan out.
I always say situation matters
I think it’s 50/50 the other half is people don’t like to develop these players. You can be put in a bad situation BUT if you are coached and develop then you can be good or great
Bad orgs rarely ever have a Brady type in their own draft board anyway. Since they are too busy trying make bad moves in the draft to shore up their lackluster roster. Competent teams with their team building strats have their bases covered enough and may have a specialty in developing a specific talent that they hit pay dirt after picking so often. I'm not surprised Purdy ended up in the Niners because his skillset is exactly someone that Kyle Shanahan would use as a backup QB anyway. He's just happens to be a better version of every Jimmy G, Nick Mullens, CJ Beathard type of guy Kyle has tried to take a chance at in past years.
Exactly, people always ignore that, whereas it's one of the biggest factors. Any QB getting drafted by the Jets or Bears is gonna have an uphill battle
Very true. Many top college qbs were considered busts until they moved to a good organization and won a super bowl. Plunkett, Doug Williams, Steve Young. Brady was developed over many years, his big passing breakout came in 2007, his 7th year. In 2001, he was asked to do very little and he did it very well and they won a sb. He did his part, but defense and special were huge for the Pats that year. It was Bledsoe and special teams winning the AFC championship game and the defense beat the Rams. Brady did his part moving them for the winning field goal, but before that the Pats offense did almost nothing in that sb. It takes a great organization to win, even more important than the qb.
Funny how Nate Tice was just saying the commentary, particularly on Maye, about shuffling in the pocket needs to stop. And then this video drops... Almost makes me think Alex Rollins doesn't know what he's talking about. Good at video editing though 👍
mack brown and lincoln riley qbs are weak
Most people have very little idea about what they are talking about or doing
Makes me think whoever this Nate Tice guy is, he doesn't know what he's talking about. Bad footwork and jitteriness in the pocket absolutely deserves talking about.
@@thatonewriter8043 Almost like you can use the Internet and find out for yourself. Takes 5 secs and prevents you from embarrassing yourself
The failure of the scouts may involve not seeing the cracks on film. For example with Maye, I’m catching major red flags in his footwork, especially his extra hitches.
To me personally from watching Maye, he’s lucky, but he can make any throw at any time. I see the Josh Allen comparisons now, he’s going to take 2 maybe even 4 years to fully see what he becomes. I hope he gets the love Josh Allen got so he can get the time to develop.
I respect everything you said. But a lot of the time it’s because of the rush for production/improvement in quarterbacks. The packers system has them looking at almost 3 decades of at least good quarterback play. While most teams might get 2 in that span because they let them be an NFL backup with the promise that they’re the next guy so years of practice matters. The scheme is basically mastered and their improvement isn’t pressured
Yeah I think the Packers are a bit of an outlier. They have gone through two franchise QBs who had amazingly long careers and near lifers who can operate the offense at a high floor. In that case they can choose to be patient on the type of prospect they can get if they liked a specific guy especially from the first round. In the case of Jordan Love by the time he was a starter, his situation was far better than most rookie QBs that got drafted to dumps. The only hang up were his receiver weapons were pretty young but he also had a smart OC who could make it work and try hide Love's mechanical inconsistencies. Theoretically the defense is also a very talented group who can help a young QB with getting the ball back. But Jon Barry sadly is not that defensive mind to lead them.
@@t4d0W that’s also fair. But to be fair. Not many teams with franchise QBs in their 30s get a first round QB and let him sit. Whether it be egos or anything else. It’s a solid system. For example. My Saints. Wouldn’t pickup a viable QB this year. Yes there are other needs. But future wise. Especially with the cap situation is that not a solid decision? With a proven starter (although he sucks) let a rookie sit. Learn and be a pro for a while
I was talking to a friend about the qbs in this draft. I told him Maye reminds me of a weird mashup of Zach Wilson and Brandon Weeden. Weeden for the footwork, Wilson for the arm talent and brain.
It's true. You need to be a certain height weight and comp percentage. True. But if you don't get the one who fits where you're located, the coaches you have, desire, photographic memory. Your percentage is so low. It's literally a waste of money. Who knows. Maybe your team needs the tax write-off.
Maye is a true Boom or Bust type. He's not going to be a mediocre guy. He will either Suck or fix his footwork and become a Good QB.
Caleb has BUST written all over him.
- 5 consecutive USC QB Busts after Carson Palmer.
- Played in pass-happy No-defense Pac-12.
- Undersized at 6’1”, which matters a lot more in NFL than college
- Basic, simplistic, QB-friendly Lincoln Riley spread offense that inflates QB production and doesn’t translate to NFL
- Known for his out-of-structure, backyard football plays. Playing in-structure is not good, which doesn’t bode well for the NFL.
- Squeaky clean pockets from the shotgun with a deep secure firm pocket up the middle, tons of room to step up. His NFL pockets will be nothing like his USC pockets.
- The Chicago Bears franchise has NEVER produced a Franchise QB, ever.
This has all the makings of an epic, all-time Bust.
I’m pretty convinced that you can teach a QB to read defenses, if he has a brain, but you can’t teach arm talent, at least by the time a guy is in his early 20s. Once he hits that age if he has really flawed mechanics or he has a mediocre-at-best arm it’s probably not fixable. I think that Will Levis might be a good example. Everyone complained he threw some stupid picks but if you look at his throwing ability you say, “Wow.” Brock Purdy is a bit of an outlier because he doesn’t have a great arm but if you look at his skillset in total, Brock is really good. It’s probably why Brock was picked way later than he should’ve been. I just watched part of the Pro Day for the guy I think from Michigan (?) and I think he might be underrated. J.J. something or other. But he reminds me a bit of Joe Burrow and he can throw the football, even though I think he has a bit of a long-winded windup.
Does college really prepare players for the nfl or should there be a B division or farm league where they can play before hitting the big league
The NFL tried and decided they didn’t want to spend the money on NFL Europa (fka, World League of American Football). Maybe the merged USFL-XFL can work with the NFL to take on such a role.
It's probably a lot like in Moneyball. You have these old-timer scouts looking for the wrong things in a QB. We need Brad Pitt and Jonah Hill to make a movie about it.
7:25 is a negative. You can't coach (improve this unless you actually improve this) footwork is off that leads the ball to be slightly behind and late. He should've throw an half second earlier to the same location. Talented, I'll look at past tape to see the growth curve as players with talent that needs to be coached you need to see if past issues have been cleaned up. Coachability is so important with these types of players.
The Trevor Lawrence - Brock Purdy thing is funny since they bookended that draft class as pick No.1 and Mr. Irrelevant.
Besides those few guys every decade, no team should ever have designs to start a rookie. The higher the pick, the worse team, and they get totally ruined most times. Even if they make it out, it’s always questionable if it damaged their potential because so beaten up. You draft the QB with way higher priority of course, but doesn’t mean a first rounder starts. It should be a rare exception, yet that truly is flipped on its head
Banger
Banger? I hardly knower
Tim Tebow's throwing mechanics were a known issue his Freshman year @ Florida, but never properly addressed. No shocker that his pro career was short. Its almost a sure thing May's mechanics issues were just discovered by a RUclipsr.
Why are we considering the throw at 5’ a miss when it goes through the receivers hands ?
do a pre draft video on bo nix pls
i feel like all the factors listed are similar for any other position. But people are pretty great at projecting other positions.
Really good analysis. My Patriots could end up with Maye. It's probably a good fit in that he could learn for a year behind Jacoby Brissett. My preference, however, is actually Bo Nix. He's super accurate, throws very few interceptions, and threw 45 TDs last year - far and away more than any QB in this draft class. Reminds me of another guy who couldn't run, was very accurate, and had a great TD/Int ratio - Mr. Tom Brady. Ever heard of him?
It's hard to predict how people react to the next level. I also wonder how much of it is on the player, vs the team and situation the player lands. Josh Allen had all the hallmarks of a horrible bust. Bad completion %, bad accuracy overall, mistakes, relatively weak competition. His first year looked like he'd be just another one of those. His next year was better. His third year and beyond, he's inside the top 10 and putting up better basic and advanced stats against professional players than he did in college against players with no professional future. He didn't just get better, he got a LOT better.
What makes this so hard to predict is that we don't know how much each factor matters. Most players in the NFL try pretty hard. It's easy to figure out while Jamarcus Russell failed. But for many of them, you don't hear that they cashed their check and walked. They're actually trying, and in many cases failing. Maybe the NFL requires something college doesn't test (faster speed, tighter windows, more complexity etc) that some people just can't handle. Maybe the cold reality is that there just aren't 32 good or even relatively decent team situations for a QB per year. Maybe it's a combination of those and more (probably). Regardless, we've observed QBs that looked good with all types of strengths succeed in the pros...and we've seen the same skillsets fail.
Nobody has yet come up with a predictive model and applied it to previous draft classes to reliably pick good future starters. Although, teams rarely turn that microscrope onto themselves...and if a coaching situation is bad, how to evaluate what can be done to make it good? It's not like you can just rip the entire staff away from another team fully intact and get that other team's players to give advice from veterans for your guy.
You sound like you were on of those dudes who overrated how 'raw' Allen was coming out of college. Sure he had the propensity of missing the side of the barn throwing from 60 yards out. But the fact he was throwing it like a rocket from that range is still a very unique thing. His film certainly had a handful of *'if he can fix this at the pro level, he'd be a legit top 3 QB in the NFL'* kind of situations. Which I think people who dive and study college prospect tape never realistically look into that kind of strong situational metric along with everything else. At worse the Bills would still give Allen the heavy consideration of an extension just by his 2nd year production alone. Especially if another way to help progression was just to give him a legit WR1 who can catch those 60 yrd bombs and win on isolation.