Good morning and happy Sunday. Big thanks to Dan for joining the show this week. If you haven't already, make sure to subscribe to help us reach our goal of 6,000 by the end of the year!
That is anti-communist thinking! That won't fly in Canada. Corporations = BAD. Government = GOOD. People are so stupid. They complain that corporations want to earn increasing profits, yet they also want their RRSP and investments to continue making money. Idiots......
Technically, we haven't seen a correction yet. Not even close. The chart is showing a big head and shoulders. If it breaks it's a 25% drop from here. Fundamentals were thrown out the window 15 years ago. 12-13 times income is stupid. You simply have to look at the 40 year chart for wages and home prices to see how bloated the sector is. And the most recent 20% drop was after a 45% spike. Perspective people. It might happen over a decade like in the 90s, and in fact, we have so far pretty much followed the 90s correction to a "T" right now. Per capita GDP has been rolling over for 7 quarters, and GDI is just starting to roll over as the interest rates roll over and when this happened in the 90s there was 6-7 yrs of grinding price action downward. Unemployment is on the rise and if the developers continue to hold off building we are going to see a lot more people being put on the unemployment line going into 2025 and 2026. Re the CAD. It's pushing multi yr lows and if it breaks in the 60s because of these int rate cuts we are going to see inflation. Dropping Oil prices are also pushing the dollar down. Looking to 2025 and 2026, the conservatives will take power, and for sure the public sector will see cuts. Let's hope so.
Daniel has the goods! 💪🏽 He dishes out the brutal reality on Canadian RE, especially new development (heading off a cliff) and investors who FOMO'ed into buying new condos a few years ago and are trying to assign / sell them now 😰 .
Excellent episode you touched on everything! Here in Nova Scotia our home prices hit a five-year high median in April same as Halifax and then the south shore in Indianapolis Valley hit five year meeting home price highs just in October. Definitely concur people are in saving mode.
The problem with purpose based rental corporate landlords is that there is no proft incentive or motive to maintain the units or the building. They let the rent controlled units and building start to fall apart over time and when tenants file tickets they tend to get ignored whereas an actual unit owner would have natural incentive and goal to maintain their product. For example, CBC has covered this exact scenario in many of their documentaries: ruclips.net/video/XDqoeyUK7Ko/видео.html
rent controlled buildings cost more to maintain than the rents generate.... they don't ignore it, they just can't afford to fix anything. there are buildings for sale right now on the MLS that have the 50 year cmhc select program where they have a low interest rate you can take over...... but because of that the rents are far less than the annual maintenance costs so you are permanently losing money.
Most commercial landlords have a significant incentive to maintain their buildings ( even if rent controlled), because they often renovate units on turn to charge market rents. Tenants don't want to pay market rents if the building is terrible. Claiming a 100 dollar more in rent could mean 30K extra in market value of your asset at the time of sale or refinance.
Question. The 20 some odd years to return to 1989 peak values adjusted for inflation,,, is that 20 year time frame from the peak in 1989 or the bottoming out of the market in the mid 1990’s?
No more blood to squeeze. Gov't approving 30 year terms tells you as much. Some people starting to think multi-generational mortgages should be a thing. This is the opposite of nation-building.
Again this is Vancouver and Toronto gta Whos ays you need to live in those areas Wow i would love to live in Manahattan. Yeah yeah I know already people saying about to say. you cant compare is to Manhattan But when it comes to Canada you can Do your research
What if you were smart enough to sell your house in December 2021 for 3.5 million which was mortgage free that you paid 1.2 million for in 2006 and you are now sitting on 5 mill in cash collecting 6 percent interest so low risk income of 300k per year and you can rent a house that lists at 4.5 million with property taxes of 30,000 per year for 100k per year. I'd say only a fool would buy as it's clear as clear can be renting makes far more sense in the current environment if you actually have money and don't need to leverage yourself. Relax life is short no need to diss the renters as some off them I'm sure are in much better financial shape then you think and can buy anytime they like but realize as does Foch it's a bad investment for the next 5 to 9 years. It's a bad investment to buy something that won't appreciate and in fact it's an even worse choice if one needs a mortgage as all owning will be is a forced savings account
It’s cuz I remember beginning of covid we offered on 20 homes and we lost on all of them even if we did 20k over asking. cuz people were in a bidding war and over bid 100k. I just had enough of looking for houses and driving all over the city. Such a waste of time and energy what a shitty year that was.
I even offered 100k over asking it was a beautiful renovated detached with a pool and I fucking didn’t get it at this point I was going to pay any amount for anything decent
@@argeldelacruz9545 Dumm, I remember when the dummies said Trent was an idiot saying there was going to be 7-8% interest rates hahaha. You better pray to God I’m wrong Dumm lololololol
@@DTrent-uy1wl I spent a few hundred grand extra in interest the last few years than normal, but the values went up at least 3x that amount. All the while, the principal is being paid down, and tenants continue to pay the rents to this day. Also, used some of the leverage to invest in Mag 7 and Mini Mag 7 stocks, they have all being going to the moon:)
People. Do not know how and what to buy. That is the key Many good pockets up and coming that i can find you for just under 1million Problem is first time home buyers dont look ahead they look at here and now. Thats the problem
Foch's cost estimates for laneway/garden suites are not accurate at all... unless he means a completely bare-bones build in small communities - in which case I don't think the rents will be there to support the costs. Also, he keeps bringing up Milei in Argentina as if all other countries are going to follow that direction... he's one example out of hundreds.
@@DTrent-uy1wl boom goes the loonie, everything will be priced in Loonies that are worth less than 50% what they are today. This will equal an inverse relationship with nominal values of all goods, including Trents 1963 run down manufactured home on an overpriced pad rental.
Good morning and happy Sunday. Big thanks to Dan for joining the show this week. If you haven't already, make sure to subscribe to help us reach our goal of 6,000 by the end of the year!
I just subscribed.
👍 Agree
Canada needs to cut taxes and regulations for the commercial sector to incentivize new business investment
That is anti-communist thinking! That won't fly in Canada. Corporations = BAD. Government = GOOD. People are so stupid. They complain that corporations want to earn increasing profits, yet they also want their RRSP and investments to continue making money. Idiots......
Great guest. Dan’s final comments were very pragmatic which is great to hear from this generation.
I am making Steve an honorary Albertan!
Technically, we haven't seen a correction yet. Not even close. The chart is showing a big head and shoulders. If it breaks it's a 25% drop from here. Fundamentals were thrown out the window 15 years ago. 12-13 times income is stupid. You simply have to look at the 40 year chart for wages and home prices to see how bloated the sector is. And the most recent 20% drop was after a 45% spike. Perspective people. It might happen over a decade like in the 90s, and in fact, we have so far pretty much followed the 90s correction to a "T" right now. Per capita GDP has been rolling over for 7 quarters, and GDI is just starting to roll over as the interest rates roll over and when this happened in the 90s there was 6-7 yrs of grinding price action downward. Unemployment is on the rise and if the developers continue to hold off building we are going to see a lot more people being put on the unemployment line going into 2025 and 2026.
Re the CAD. It's pushing multi yr lows and if it breaks in the 60s because of these int rate cuts we are going to see inflation. Dropping Oil prices are also pushing the dollar down.
Looking to 2025 and 2026, the conservatives will take power, and for sure the public sector will see cuts. Let's hope so.
You think per capita gdp and wage growth is driving GTA real estate prices? lol.
@ did I say that? Are you struggling with your reading skills?
No clue what you are talkimg about
In shit pockets or in tim buck to yes those will and may drop in good pockets they wont
Good luck on that view.
I agree, we have only had the appetizer. The main course egg da jour gonna be all over lightweights face like I said
@@DTrent-uy1wl ok keep waiting and you will be a renter forever
Love these couch economists who no nothing.
Daniel has the goods! 💪🏽 He dishes out the brutal reality on Canadian RE, especially new development (heading off a cliff) and investors who FOMO'ed into buying new condos a few years ago and are trying to assign / sell them now 😰 .
Paper champ
Excellent episode you touched on everything! Here in Nova Scotia our home prices hit a five-year high median in April same as Halifax and then the south shore in Indianapolis Valley hit five year meeting home price highs just in October. Definitely concur people are in saving mode.
Great podcast and guest! Thank you for the education. Spot on our current reality. Followed.
The problem with purpose based rental corporate landlords is that there is no proft incentive or motive to maintain the units or the building. They let the rent controlled units and building start to fall apart over time and when tenants file tickets they tend to get ignored whereas an actual unit owner would have natural incentive and goal to maintain their product. For example, CBC has covered this exact scenario in many of their documentaries:
ruclips.net/video/XDqoeyUK7Ko/видео.html
rent controlled buildings cost more to maintain than the rents generate.... they don't ignore it, they just can't afford to fix anything.
there are buildings for sale right now on the MLS that have the 50 year cmhc select program where they have a low interest rate you can take over...... but because of that the rents are far less than the annual maintenance costs so you are permanently losing money.
Most commercial landlords have a significant incentive to maintain their buildings ( even if rent controlled), because they often renovate units on turn to charge market rents. Tenants don't want to pay market rents if the building is terrible. Claiming a 100 dollar more in rent could mean 30K extra in market value of your asset at the time of sale or refinance.
CBC documentaries are dramas to attract eye balls.
@@MyRUclips-yb7xc not if your tenant won't move, so you won't ever realize the extra market value.
Question.
The 20 some odd years to return to 1989 peak values adjusted for inflation,,, is that 20 year time frame from the peak in 1989 or the bottoming out of the market in the mid 1990’s?
From peak.
Happy Sunday! Great guest 🎉
This show was the Foching best!!
Yah whatever
Congrats! You made it to 6k. Well deserved!
Thanks for the support!
Great show ! Dans a great guest !!!
how much does the average garden or lane way suite costs in toronto gta per square foot. It’s going to cost you more than 250K
Awesome episode!
When stats are good (as Dan's are), long-windedness is good! I absorbed every data point he mentioned. Keep it up! 🌬️
Why?
Good chat. This guy is smart. Low rise rules. High rise drools.
So weak
Your mom seems to like it.
@@andrewbutler4082 your comment was peculiar. Your retort was weird. You okay?
I thought both my comments were pretty strong.
We are screwed. Thanks JT.
I love when real estate people say the stock market will come down “because it has to” 😂
lane way or garden suite is going to be way more than 250K depending on the size. Common now.
No more blood to squeeze. Gov't approving 30 year terms tells you as much. Some people starting to think multi-generational mortgages should be a thing.
This is the opposite of nation-building.
Good one gents 👌🏻
Nope
@@DTrent-uy1wl Yep
Again this is Vancouver and Toronto gta
Whos ays you need to live in those areas
Wow i would love to live in Manahattan.
Yeah yeah I know already people saying about to say. you cant compare is to Manhattan
But when it comes to Canada you can
Do your research
Mahhattan makes GTA and likely Vancouver look like bargains
@@skyword5508 correct
I see them sideways for awhile condos longer
But if you can get into a single detached get in.
They will not go cheaper
This must be a TREB-bot spewing this garbage wow
@@DTrent-uy1wl keep renting buddy enjoy the 100 % interest
What if you were smart enough to sell your house in December 2021 for 3.5 million which was mortgage free that you paid 1.2 million for in 2006 and you are now sitting on 5 mill in cash collecting 6 percent interest so low risk income of 300k per year and you can rent a house that lists at 4.5 million with property taxes of 30,000 per year for 100k per year. I'd say only a fool would buy as it's clear as clear can be renting makes far more sense in the current environment if you actually have money and don't need to leverage yourself. Relax life is short no need to diss the renters as some off them I'm sure are in much better financial shape then you think and can buy anytime they like but realize as does Foch it's a bad investment for the next 5 to 9 years. It's a bad investment to buy something that won't appreciate and in fact it's an even worse choice if one needs a mortgage as all owning will be is a forced savings account
@@Relaxlifeisshort2 knockers that was an excellent post
@@DTrent-uy1wl that's an example of perfect timing. All the people who still own those homes arent' too upset for not selling
It’s cuz I remember beginning of covid we offered on 20 homes and we lost on all of them even if we did 20k over asking. cuz people were in a bidding war and over bid 100k. I just had enough of looking for houses and driving all over the city. Such a waste of time and energy what a shitty year that was.
I even offered 100k over asking it was a beautiful renovated detached with a pool and I fucking didn’t get it at this point I was going to pay any amount for anything decent
Hopefully you chose not to buy or you’re getting rek’d
@@DTrent-uy1wl the Loonie is getting wrecked vs USD as well as with inflation. You're wrong Trent
@@argeldelacruz9545 Dumm, I remember when the dummies said Trent was an idiot saying there was going to be 7-8% interest rates hahaha. You better pray to God I’m wrong Dumm lololololol
@@DTrent-uy1wl I spent a few hundred grand extra in interest the last few years than normal, but the values went up at least 3x that amount. All the while, the principal is being paid down, and tenants continue to pay the rents to this day. Also, used some of the leverage to invest in Mag 7 and Mini Mag 7 stocks, they have all being going to the moon:)
GM.
💪
A bit of each of those 3 things and back to the way it was......
2035, Just in time for me to retire and not still not afford a home.....wonderful
Be nice to your parents so they keep you in their will...lol
@@dden7670 lol, you know your getting old when you are the parents, lol
People. Do not know how and what to buy.
That is the key
Many good pockets up and coming that i can find you for just under 1million
Problem is first time home buyers dont look ahead they look at here and now.
Thats the problem
The answer was crypto if you were smart enough
@@DTrent-uy1wl that i agree but ???
Sunday!
Best day!
This assumes there won't be a massive crash in the next 2 years which i doubt.
I think the massive transfer of wealth from the boomers to the next generation in the next few years will also have a impact on housing affordability.
great guest guys!
Dan is one of the best! Hope you enjoy.
🙏
He lost us at “the crash has already happened” I know he’s like “sh*t I knew Big Trent would trash me by saying something so dumb*ss”
@@DTrent-uy1wl He was Foching awesome
@@gastonbuffet Glendiddik 14 year or Dumm is hanging out with Kraken I’m betting
Foch's cost estimates for laneway/garden suites are not accurate at all... unless he means a completely bare-bones build in small communities - in which case I don't think the rents will be there to support the costs.
Also, he keeps bringing up Milei in Argentina as if all other countries are going to follow that direction... he's one example out of hundreds.
Like I said- delusional
I told you doughnuts it would be 7-10 years
for what? I'm still sinking worth less Loonies into Canadian Real Estate.
Oh no
Foch is delusional “the crash has already happened what more do the bears expect”
Yes it has not even started. Renewals will take billions out of the economy in the next couple of years causing unemployment to skyrocket.
Boom goes the dynamite
@@DTrent-uy1wl boom goes the loonie, everything will be priced in Loonies that are worth less than 50% what they are today. This will equal an inverse relationship with nominal values of all goods, including Trents 1963 run down manufactured home on an overpriced pad rental.
2035 😂 means when they are doubled tripled from here..
average everything will be 3x in 2035 in nominal Loonies
Didn’t like the show
That means we’re doing something right!
I loved the show. Foch rules!!
He’ll will be wiping egg off his face just like both the other guys
You two lightweights need some alpha firepower on the show you probably wouldnt need to suck so many rye n cokes down. Do you know Mike Martin’s?