Corelogic: THIS will Occur in 2025 to the Housing Market
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- Опубликовано: 28 сен 2024
- NEW real estate market predictions! What will happen to home prices in the United States over the next 12 months given 30-year fixed mortgage rates are still averaging over 7% and housing inventory is significantly higher than it was a year ago? Will home prices finally fall to make housing more affordable or will prices continue to rise due to still historically low housing inventory levels? In today’s video, I share the latest housing market forecast and real estate market predictions from Corelogic (link below).
Thank you for watching today’s US housing market forecast video! I appreciate you. Please like, subscribe and share this video onto your social media.
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Compilation of Housing Market Forecast videos:
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Reports I shared in the video:
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www.corelogic....
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www.resicluban...
altosresearch....
www.redfin.com...
To give you a quick mortgage interest rates update, according to the Mortgage News Daily the average 30 yr fixed rate mortgage is around 7% for the current mortgage rates for people with exceptional credit (at the time of filming this video).
Comment below: what’s your housing market forecast? Do you think a housing crash will happen or are your housing market predictions that the real estate market and home prices will continue to surge?
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Jason Walter, CPA (inactive CPA lic 103885)
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Revest Homes (DRE 02174879, NMLS 2362319)
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Disclaimer:
Jason Walter is not a practicing tax accountant or a licensed attorney or financial adviser. Therefore, the information in these videos shall not be relied upon as tax, legal, or financial advice from a qualified perspective. If you need such advice, please contact a qualified tax accountant, attorney, or financial adviser. We have taken reasonable steps to check that the information in this video is accurate but we cannot represent that it is free from errors. You expressly agree not to rely upon any information contained in this video - it is for entertainment purposes only.
This video description may contain affiliate links that allow you to easily find the items mentioned in my videos as well as support the channel at no cost to you. Thank you for your support! Jason Walter is a licensed real estate agent and mortgage loan originator with Revest Homes in California (DRE 01923240 and NMLS 2566691).
#Corelogic #housingforecast #housingpredictions
Nick (from Revenue App) and Jason need to have a Podcast. Their ability to analyze all this data is absolutely impressive. Thank You Jason for all your effort analyzing the housing market.
If have a worthless reventure app and you’re wasting money. Do you know Redfin app is free and more reliable😂.
So basically it's looking like this inflation has ruined us. Nothing is adjusting in a favorable way. We had a real estate boom for years that ended with an additional bubble of speculation during COVID. Rates were raised but no assets went down! Stock markets at record highs. Housing never went down when they aren't affordable by a longshot. After the games we saw, a little slowdown in the inflation rate does nothing when prices have doubled in the decade and rates are still near peaks. The fed has ruined us. I can see my standard of living dropping like a rock. I had hoped that prudence would pay off, and I could upgrade from my tiny house and perhaps the ridiculous speculators would pay the price for turning real estate into a meme stock. American dream... Flush..
The market in NJ is red hot and prices just keep becoming drastically more unaffordable. The suburbs for NYC, Boston, Philly, and D.C. are way different than national metrics.
The NE is doing much better than FL and TX.
See this on every video. Bro no shit lmao.
Since buying in 2018 my home has almost doubled in price. (Mercer County NJ)
@@stephet3683 I know that Jason is based from the Sacramento area and all, but his videos only reflect on the average of all metros. Or they specialize in CA, AR, TX, and FL. For the viewers searching for homes in NJ who don’t do enough research on the local market, it gives them a false sense of hope of rising inventory that doesn’t exist there.
I wouldnt say red hot. Red hot was a year or two ago. Prices are definitely not going up like they were. I regularly see houses on the market for multiple months and Im seeing price drops pretty often. Seems like the market is stabilizing.
Prices are still going up in San Diego. A quick look at houses that sold in the last week on Redfin shows most sold within a week of listing and most sold $30-100K over asking.
Yowzers. Thanks for sharing.
truth!
Just bought my property in San Diego it’s a battle 😅
A major data point not being accounted for is immigration. Believe it or not, it affects housing.
I don’t think home prices can ever decrease in Bay Area , prices have been increasing because of low inventory . We are having a stellar summer , 71% increase in home sales from YOY and 18% increase in median home prices YOY
Exactly bro. I’d been arguing with crashbros for almost 3 years now 😂. It’s just going to keep going up just because of supply and demand. Also Inflation will keep the prices up.
@@House_hacker_619 yes agree., thats why been so critical of these crash bros. it may work in lesser markets not in places like Bay Area, NY end all. all the tourist hot spots like Florida , Austin could go down. All residential places are a boom cycle for sure.
No land to build and high paying jobs is certainly contributing to the rise. Where are you getting your stats from? CAR reported a 23% YOY rise in existing home sales and 15.5% gain in the median sale price for the SF Bay Area (April 2023 to April 2024). I know there's lot of other sources of data though and the area/location varies.
@@JasonWalter1 I only look at certain cities in Alameda
@@straightdrive6192what crashbros doesn’t understand there’s over 40% of homeowners have paid off loans = zero mortgage. In California most houses here are owned by multi generational families. There’s probably 4-5 families living in one house and aren’t selling because of low rate, cheap to no mortgage. Even if recession happens and one of them lost their job. There’s still 4-5 adults can all contribute maybe $300 each to pay that cheap mortgage. Not to mention they have tons of equity and loans modification.
Decrease but only after unemployment goes up and people are forced to sell
Seems reasonable to me, thank you.
Great update Jason! Thanks from Mark and Mel! 👍 😊
Thank you!!
We can have a 300% gain inventory over the next 6 months. Until prices drop substantially, like 30% - 40%, they’ll sit on the market. Most of the action in Florida are flips which is exacerbating the pricing problem along with the taxes. A lot of people still have a lot of the free covid money handouts, only the rich, somFlorida has years to go to see any type of recovery. New construction here is garbage and only a last resort for the average home buyer.
Shocked that Canada would begin an easing cycle. Europe has now followed suit. That should be great news for easing crazy high input costs for both home improvement and new build. *"sweat equity"* is still no small matter in the US Housing Market and I would reinforce this with your great channel work going forward as some Regions such as Kansas City and Texas are clearly still booming away. This truly remarkable recovery from Tech Wreck 2022 can't help but be great news for all West Coast real estate plays and presumably Denver as well. Huge fan of Cybertruck and what that might do to finally create a great work truck in the US economy in particular for home building but also moving in new furniture and appliances and the like. Huge success of Starship in South Texas no small matter as well as this is an entirely new Industry that now clearly has reached a whole new level. Long $t AT&T strong buy.
Interesting indeed about Europe. Makes me wonder when the Fed will start cutting rates but it won't be at their next meeting.
Love the data. Thanks
Glad it was helpful!
ok houses in michigan are still going for over asking with no inspection and appraisal guarantees its beyond insane and i just cant understand it
Even keeled insight!
Still no crash
I’d been saying it in the past. SoCal is not the place to time the market. If you can afford it and go for it. Owning a property in San Diego or SoCal or California is like owning a gold
False. Inventory is moving up in SoCal especially San Diego
@@agentcrypto7741 well prices doesn’t reflect that 😂. Keep renting while your landlord is getting rich. My advice to you is stay in crypto and stay away from real estate. You’ll be a horrible real estate investor.
SoCal has inventory moving up, but so are prices 😐
@@WillV_ The basic fundamental of supply and demand does exist
Love SD :)
If FED doesn't increase interest (and we don't think they will) homes will go up as the largest money increase ever works it's way down into the hands of the people. The prices go up as that happens. IE inflation as it has been doing the whole time.
Not if unemployment continues to increases…pretty much every piece of housing data is tied to a healthy job market…if job market declines, housing will decline.
@@jrobinson5661not necessarily look at the 80’s market. It’s called stagflation and we’re in the same situation. Unemployment at 10.5%, inflation at 8% and interest rate at 18-21%. It didn’t crash the market. As a matter of fact there’s area had double in prices.
@@jrobinson5661we complain about 3-4% unemployment rate, 3% inflation rate and 6-7% interest rate😂. The 80’s had it worst.
@@House_hacker_619 A significant difference between the 80s to today not spoken about that much is home price to income ratio…HOME PRICE-TO-INCOME RATIOS ROSE TO ALL-TIME HIGHS IN MANY METROS from 1980-2022…if job market takes a crap, which looks very possible, fewer people will be able to afford homes even at depressed prices.
@@jrobinson5661if you don’t believe me keep waiting while your landlord is getting richer
Should I lock in a 6.5 in California
Did you shop for rates preferably broker
Wow. What if the market crashes next year
@@oletreed4230it’s already getting old I’ve heard that crap since 2016, 2020, 22, 24, 25 and if it doesn’t move the crash post again 😂
@@House_hacker_619 we are in a bubble man. It gonna POP
@@oletreed4230quit listening to crashbros 😂. Real estate is supply and demand
Crash bros have been wrong for so long that eventually they’ll be right, but the median will be like 600k by then.
Wished I could,d find something for that price west of I-25 in colorado😊
😂 Imagine being so delusional and not realizing home sales are at a 3 decade low.
Tell me about it. I feel bad for the people who have been listening to them for years now only to see home prices rise.
@@stevenap4594but not prices 😂
@@JasonWalter1 who are these people they are referring to? Is it a specific channel?
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Homes in ohio are just sitting on the market, way overpriced
San Diego will be the last city to crash 😂. We’re running out of land to build and the cost is extremely expensive. Further south is Mexico and the ocean. Unless if you want to drive 3-4 hours from city. There you’ll find 700-800k price range. Still too expensive. Time and gas will kill you😂
It's very hot in the summer just a 20 min drive from the ocean too, right? I lived in Del Mar for a summer long ago and I remember driving 10 min and it felt much hotter.
@@JasonWalter1 yeah I live in Chula Vista. No complain we have a Nice weather here. I got lucky I bought a house with no HOA no mello Roos, plenty of parking and massive backyard with room to build for a tiny house or multiple ADUs for rental cash flow.
@@JasonWalter1 still remember visiting relatives in PB and asking why they did not have A/C. They laughed and pointed at the ocean view out the window. "There is your A/C" they said.
20+% YoY real estate appreciation takes a long time to slow down. US real estate is the second largest asset class on earth worth an estimated 47 trillion dollars with over 20 trillion of that being leveraged. RE was never going to 'crash" like penny or pharmaceutical stock.. I think it takes another 18-24 months before we see significant RE losses.
Thanks for sharing. In your opinion, where will the surplus in supply come from?
this is correct.
@JasonWalter1 mom and pop investors, 2nd and 3rd home carrying costs due to insurance and tax increase, institutional investors seeking better returns elsewhere. most of the pop growth is immigration and many are not able to buy... also homebuilders have built a ton and isn't showing as active inventory
@@besnkinicokay 😂.
@@JasonWalter1 Fair question. I think supply will come from investors selling properties looking to exit RE and persevere capital within the bond markets.
Clearvalue “I don’t believe ⬆️ 3.4% is a crash”😂
Definitely not a crash, but if it drops yearly for the next 3-5 years, the accumulated drop could be 15-20%. Still no crash just a slight correction. Who knows, during 08 crash took I think 3 years to the bottom.
15-20% drop is more than you think.
If a house went from 250k to 375k and dropped 20% from that in, let’s say, 2025, it would be worth 300k. Factor in a normal appreciation YoY of ~4% for each year from the time it was worth 250k (2020) and that house would be worth 304k by 2025 but the 20% loss would put it at 300k (down 4k).
It would be as if the massive appreciation never happened.
@@Kurplode I bought my 2nd property in San Diego in August 2022 for 685k with rate of 4.375. Crashbros said it’s the worst in the history to buy 😂. The current value is 895k+. The crashbros will probably say another “dead cat bounce or another conspiracy theory” 😂. Who do I believe crashbros who’s been wrong for the past 4 years or My neighbor just sold their house for 895k 2 months ago and matched with Redfin or any data. Since then houses here keep going up. I’m already up over 30% in equity.
@@Kurplodeyeah that’s what I’m thinking. If anything house prices staying stagnant/sideways for the next couple years is still a decline given yoy inflation rate.
@@bernardomakaveliI wish that would happen, but it won’t
I LOVE that you did a reference to predictions made 1 year ago and looking how they panned out. Very few do that at all and it’s super interesting to see how predictions actually pan out. Awesome content as usual!
Increase. They always increase in Florida.
You must not be from Florida or k is anything about the FL market. Only go up?! 😂
8:49 no were waiting for prices to come in line with interest rates
Thanks for sharing and for watching the video!
will the two come together?
Home prices are up! YoY prices are up! Prices went up 5.3%! But prices are decreasing! SOOO WHICH ONE IS IT? Are prices going up or down? 🤯
They have to be going down....
Up
Can you do a deep dive just about sacramento? What's happening now, wha'ts likely to happen, if a crash does occurr what's it going to look like...etc?
I posted one about 2 weeks ago here: ruclips.net/video/X5ki6Gde-NQ/видео.html
@@JasonWalter1 thanks so much!
My friend just bought his house for 30k over asking. In Vacaville. I don’t understand this market
We need videos on the northeast market
There won't be home buying demand when rates decrease. Rates decrease because money is running into bonds. Bonds are a safe haven investment. The economy is collapsing when people pull money out of risky investments and put it into bonds. This is what real estate people do not get... ever. They only know real estate and are clueless about the overall economy.
If the economy is failing people are losing jobs. When you are unemployed or you so your friends and neighbors getting unemployed do you think you will be making a big purchase on an overpriced house because rates when down 2%? LOLLOL
A lot people are into bond or blue chips stocks. We reduced our exposure to more speculative plays a year ago.
We got lucky and at least got a 6.9 rate for the house we are buying currently
Did you shop for rates. You can save more money by comparing rates. Preferably broker they have access to multiple lenders. Congrats anyway
Congrats on your purchase coming up!
6.9!! Omg
Lucky? 😅
Great morning Jason, by my dumb math😂🤣
Good morning to you, Steve!
1😊
I hope everyone can like, subscribe and share these updates.
We really don't have anyone on RUclips who can break down this data as well as you.
100k subscribers will be here sooner than later
You're very kind, Rene! I appreciate you.
I am simply tired of it all....
If home prices never go back down, political unrest will increase. 2bd/1ba 1300sqft in rural Texas should *not* cost more than $200k, but here we are. Who is getting all the profit from this? Can we take them out back and line them up along the wall yet?
Good morning Jason
Good morning!
The question is will we ever get 3%, 4% or even 5% rates again?
I doubt it. Not only prices will skyrocket. Those homeowners with interest rates of 6% and up can easily refinance to lower rates.
@@House_hacker_619rates depend on the economy.
@@iishyxvietxboyii1I hope you’re right if it happens I have options with cash out refi or just refi one of my cash flow rental property with current 4.375 to less than 3% and buy another property😂
@@House_hacker_619 I doubt it’ll ever go back to 3 percent but high 4s maybe… 🤔
Rates mean nothing, It's about the price and not writing a check for an over priced home.
The dominos are falling, next year is gona get bad
How many years have you been saying this?
Crash incoming! 😆
Commenting on every video to try to convince ur self isn’t going to change anything my man.
Even if there is a bust on the national level, Miami metro will still remain the king of stupid demand. Yes, Condos and McMansions are suffering at the moment, but even those sectors will stay elevated compared to the national levels. Why? Because Miami. Also, the FIFA contract helps drive up speculation on the international level. Goodness knows we have enough of speculators from abroad already! Currently a flipper's haven in the normie single-fam category. So good luck with that, first-time homebuyers! Simply insane.