There’s no real point to follow any of them. If you look at the graphs, it’s all over the place with ups and downs. They’re basically putting that into the form of words and telling us stuff that we already know and see on past charts.
Inflation in the last 4 years (Jan 2020- Jan 2024) has been approx 22%. In the same time, housing increased about 50% (From 270k median in Q1 2020 to 410k in Q1 2024). That means housing outpaced inflation by approx 28% (Or more than double inflation). Housing is due for at LEAST a 15-20% correction, due to the core inflation gap to housing inflation. Of course this varies in different areas. Boom cities like Austin are expected to crash 30%+ and have already started. Places that didn't appreciate nearly as much (Houston areas appreciated about 30%) are only expecting a 10% crash, and many of the localities have already or are already experiencing it.
Because higher prices for people in RE industry means more $$. They are incentivized to emphasize lower rates and ignore prices. Lower rates make homes seem more affordable due to lower payments. It coaxes some buyers off the sidelines, showing they focus on payments over price. You'll also notice that renters here are shamed with similar psychological tactics.
@@WelcomeIncorporated but keep in mind you can always refinance down the road to get a lower rate. You can't lower the price you paid down the road though.
Corelogic collects appraisal data. The appraisal data is pretty much an affirmation of a sales price agreed to between a buyer and seller (I used to be an appraiser). In other words, It is historical and no appraisal predicts future prices. Corelogic will ALWAYS be wrong in any prediction.
I say this tongue and cheek. I guarantee this is the top of the market. I am closing on a house this Monday. All I can say is COVID, the ensuing housing rush/work from anywhere craze, then inflation really screwed up my retirement plans. We have been living seven people in a 3 bedroom 1200sq' house long enough. This place is being put into service and I'm moving on. I've road the housing crash roller-coaster before and I just bought my die in it house so the housing market wins. I'm raising the white flag, cashing in my chips now that I won't make any money on them with the FED's soon coming cuts.
That is at least heading in the right direction, if you are a hopeful buyer, or unfortunately an investor, looking in that specific area. But without many other specific details about that specific house's price history, recent sale prices of very similar houses in size, condition, features...it is hard to know if that drop is truly meaningful or just some owner who was insisting on pricing it as if we are still in May of 2022, and has finally realized they had it overpriced for the area now that it is September of 2024.
2 hours north of New York City there's a small house in the woods on six acres that started at 550k in June '24 to 500k in August and then another 100k just now in Sept. 550k to 399k over the summer.
@@straightdrive6192 I am renting! I live on a base. Saving way more than a mortgage would cost for a comparable home. I put double that into savings each month, and moved my “down payment” into a credit union. I earn nearly 2% on that, and make a few hundred on that cash. The longer I wait, the lower prices are in my area, and the larger my down payment is.
@@straightdrive6192 tell me you can’t do simple math, without telling me you can do simple math. Bet you took a 1% down loan. You obviously don’t get the facial climate currently.
Fed has said time and time again 3 rate reductions this year. There will not be a 50 basis point reduction as that would jeopardize all their hard work in the last few years.
Mortgage rates are priced in on future federal rates cuts. But federal reserve will be cutting rates faster and lower than anticipated! Watch oil prices… dropping like a rock! We are in a recession now. Watching the U.S. 2 Year Treasury Note - telling us what the real rates will be in a year or so!
good for homeowners. slow steady growth means slower property tax increases, property insurance increases, etc and a lower likelihood you will be taxed on sale on phantom inflation gains, as is what happened in this past cycle, where you got more for your home, paid phantom inflation tax if you exceeded the fixed $ non-indexed one time exclusion, and then were faced with inflated priced replacement homes to choose from. Amortization makes the payment a challenge for new home buyers at these prices independent of the rate. People are all giddy with their paper gains if they haven't sold. The masses have been conned again.
The northeast will stay strong for the next 3 years, the south will have cascading downward prices for the next 3 years (down 10-15%) west will have slight decreases and increases and nationally flat for the next 3-5 years. Unless of course we have wages increase dramatically or rates drop crazy or we have a major financial downturn, then we can have bigger decreases.
Jason, why do you call it a revision. As I understand it, the report is not a revision but an actual forecast for the given time period. A revision would be if they changed the forecast for the same time period. I'm I missing something?
Technically it's a forecast over the next 12 months. I like to track how it changes month to month because what I've been noticing is their forecast for home price gains has been getting smaller and smaller (i.e. decelerating).
Jason My August 2024 document from Corelogic site has Palm Bay Melbourne-Titusville as rank 1, vs your report what date or month is that report? I live in this region and have been congratulating my local realtor friends that we finally made it to first place!! But your report shows us in second place what gives?
Jason, you have a good channel, but it's too repetitive. Fed rate cuts aren't going to do squat for the middle class at these prices. I'd like to suggest you pay closer attention to the increasing quantity of rental houses, especially in Sacramento. There are over 500 houses/townhouses for rent right now. The quantity keeps increasing because nobody wants to pay $2500 to rent a basic SFH. Something has to give.
Prices CAnnot decrease because of depressed inventory and high demand , it’s all seasonal . Come March everybody will talk About home price appreciation .
We go through this every year. Seasonal demand goes down, prices fall month over month, everyone screams crash even though prices are up year over year, and then come February the market takes back off.
@@Pragmatist1st inventory up from depressed levels , nothing compared to pre 2020 levels , check your stats . We will have serious shortage of housing and ever increasing demand causing upward pressure in California , California is a golden state for sure . All turns to huge profits
The average home needs to drop by at least $100K in order to be affordable. All increases experienced between 2020-2024 need to be erased and homes sell for 2019 values.
Every other week it’s Corelogic or MLS or Redfin or whoever revising their forecasts. Seems like they have no actual forecasting ability
I’m sure there will be a lot more “revisions” coming in the next 12 months.
There’s no real point to follow any of them. If you look at the graphs, it’s all over the place with ups and downs. They’re basically putting that into the form of words and telling us stuff that we already know and see on past charts.
Say NO to “pandemic “ prices 😅
@@WelcomeIncorporated say “sorry” to fomo’d triggered commenters with no name or face, who troll 👿
@@WelcomeIncorporated say NO to 1-3% mortgages with no money down! 😂
ITS THE PRICE NOT THE RATES!!!!!
@@elizabethv7411 🎯
@@WelcomeIncorporated haha very well said 💯
@@WelcomeIncorporatedsmh. Another “renter” comment. 😅 damn basement kids
@@WelcomeIncorporatedlol
@@WelcomeIncorporatedimagine liking your own comment with bots accounts 🤡
Excellent video. It's great you are keeping track of the accuracy of prior year forecasts. Thanks!
Glad it was helpful!
A lot of people fail to realize that it's not just the home that has increased but it is the value of the Dollar has dropped significantly.
You can’t seriously think that people are unaware of the existence of inflation, right? We know.
@@DaveDDD people who support the Left obviously don’t know 🤣
Correct. People are waiting for a crash that isn’t coming.
Inflation in the last 4 years (Jan 2020- Jan 2024) has been approx 22%. In the same time, housing increased about 50% (From 270k median in Q1 2020 to 410k in Q1 2024). That means housing outpaced inflation by approx 28% (Or more than double inflation).
Housing is due for at LEAST a 15-20% correction, due to the core inflation gap to housing inflation.
Of course this varies in different areas. Boom cities like Austin are expected to crash 30%+ and have already started. Places that didn't appreciate nearly as much (Houston areas appreciated about 30%) are only expecting a 10% crash, and many of the localities have already or are already experiencing it.
Literally everyone understands this.
Why do you keep focusing on mortgage rates when the REAL problem is outrageous home prices that doubled in the last three years???
Because higher prices for people in RE industry means more $$. They are incentivized to emphasize lower rates and ignore prices. Lower rates make homes seem more affordable due to lower payments. It coaxes some buyers off the sidelines, showing they focus on payments over price.
You'll also notice that renters here are shamed with similar psychological tactics.
@@WelcomeIncorporated but keep in mind you can always refinance down the road to get a lower rate. You can't lower the price you paid down the road though.
@@WelcomeIncorporated wrong
They have not doubled in the last 3 years. In the last 4 years they've increased about 50%. In the last 3 , it's been about 30%.
@@bestpredatorNo, it's not "wrong". But thanks for the scintillating, information filled rebuttal. 🙄
Corelogic collects appraisal data. The appraisal data is pretty much an affirmation of a sales price agreed to between a buyer and seller (I used to be an appraiser). In other words, It is historical and no appraisal predicts future prices. Corelogic will ALWAYS be wrong in any prediction.
Congrats on 100k subs Jason!
Thanks!!
The rate can be priced in for the future rate cuts
1:33 love it when you track their prediction record. super interesting. a graph of each month prediction versus real would be very cool.
Congratulations on the 100K Jason!!!
Thank you very much!
I say this tongue and cheek. I guarantee this is the top of the market. I am closing on a house this Monday. All I can say is COVID, the ensuing housing rush/work from anywhere craze, then inflation really screwed up my retirement plans. We have been living seven people in a 3 bedroom 1200sq' house long enough. This place is being put into service and I'm moving on. I've road the housing crash roller-coaster before and I just bought my die in it house so the housing market wins. I'm raising the white flag, cashing in my chips now that I won't make any money on them with the FED's soon coming cuts.
Prices are the reason , rates not so much ...
Great video, as always. My only critique is the part about forecasting the rate cuts. I think the website doesn't really provide any value.
In central Florida, i saw an amazing townhome that got a $65,000 price cut.
That is at least heading in the right direction, if you are a hopeful buyer, or unfortunately an investor, looking in that specific area. But without many other specific details about that specific house's price history, recent sale prices of very similar houses in size, condition, features...it is hard to know if that drop is truly meaningful or just some owner who was insisting on pricing it as if we are still in May of 2022, and has finally realized they had it overpriced for the area now that it is September of 2024.
2 hours north of New York City there's a small house in the woods on six acres that started at 550k in June '24 to 500k in August and then another 100k just now in Sept. 550k to 399k over the summer.
My 2 cents, housing prices need to come down 20% for the average person to come into the market. I'd pay a 7% rate if home prices came down 20%.
Home prices have almost doubled since the pandemic, along with rising mortgage interest rates. So, how does a 20% drop make you happy?
@@fh1087 Doesn't make me happy. Just makes it possible.
Tell me you renting without telling me you renting
@@straightdrive6192 I am renting! I live on a base. Saving way more than a mortgage would cost for a comparable home. I put double that into savings each month, and moved my “down payment” into a credit union. I earn nearly 2% on that, and make a few hundred on that cash. The longer I wait, the lower prices are in my area, and the larger my down payment is.
@@straightdrive6192 tell me you can’t do simple math, without telling me you can do simple math. Bet you took a 1% down loan. You obviously don’t get the facial climate currently.
Fed has said time and time again 3 rate reductions this year. There will not be a 50 basis point reduction as that would jeopardize all their hard work in the last few years.
Thank you, Jeff. I really don't expect a 50bps rate cut either this year.
Mortgage rates are priced in on future federal rates cuts. But federal reserve will be cutting rates faster and lower than anticipated! Watch oil prices… dropping like a rock! We are in a recession now. Watching the U.S. 2 Year Treasury Note - telling us what the real rates will be in a year or so!
good for homeowners. slow steady growth means slower property tax increases, property insurance increases, etc and a lower likelihood you will be taxed on sale on phantom inflation gains, as is what happened in this past cycle, where you got more for your home, paid phantom inflation tax if you exceeded the fixed $ non-indexed one time exclusion, and then were faced with inflated priced replacement homes to choose from. Amortization makes the payment a challenge for new home buyers at these prices independent of the rate. People are all giddy with their paper gains if they haven't sold. The masses have been conned again.
The northeast will stay strong for the next 3 years, the south will have cascading downward prices for the next 3 years (down 10-15%) west will have slight decreases and increases and nationally flat for the next 3-5 years. Unless of course we have wages increase dramatically or rates drop crazy or we have a major financial downturn, then we can have bigger decreases.
Happy Hump Day Jason! #LETSGETNERDY #BYMYDUMBMATH😊
By my dumb math, you're our first comment of the day!
@@JasonWalter1 😂🤣😂
Jason, why do you call it a revision. As I understand it, the report is not a revision but an actual forecast for the given time period. A revision would be if they changed the forecast for the same time period. I'm I missing something?
Technically it's a forecast over the next 12 months. I like to track how it changes month to month because what I've been noticing is their forecast for home price gains has been getting smaller and smaller (i.e. decelerating).
@@JasonWalter1 yeah, that's how I see it too. So, they are not revising, they're just giving us a forecast for a different period.
Jason My August 2024 document from Corelogic site has Palm Bay Melbourne-Titusville as rank 1, vs your report what date or month is that report? I live in this region and have been congratulating my local realtor friends that we finally made it to first place!! But your report shows us in second place what gives?
Oh now I see you have September version I did not see it on their website going back to look...
Jason, why do you do Real Estate agent referral? As you mentioned at the end of your video.
Good morning everyone 🎉
Morning, Rene!
Jason, you have a good channel, but it's too repetitive. Fed rate cuts aren't going to do squat for the middle class at these prices. I'd like to suggest you pay closer attention to the increasing quantity of rental houses, especially in Sacramento. There are over 500 houses/townhouses for rent right now. The quantity keeps increasing because nobody wants to pay $2500 to rent a basic SFH. Something has to give.
The stats on the national home price increase is a useless stat. Every market is drastically different from the next
Prices are too way high they to cut it ,
Prices CAnnot decrease because of depressed inventory and high demand , it’s all seasonal . Come March everybody will talk
About home price appreciation .
We go through this every year. Seasonal demand goes down, prices fall month over month, everyone screams crash even though prices are up year over year, and then come February the market takes back off.
@@AJourneyOfYourSoul lol , most people are not that smart to figure out this simple seasonality .lol
Inventory is actually up....
@@Pragmatist1st inventory up from depressed levels , nothing compared to pre 2020 levels , check your stats . We will have serious shortage of housing and ever increasing demand causing upward pressure in California , California is a golden state for sure . All turns to huge profits
The average home needs to drop by at least $100K in order to be affordable. All increases experienced between 2020-2024 need to be erased and homes sell for 2019 values.
There really shouldn’t be any house price gains for a few years.
People will not buy at these prices no matter what the rate is
New Forecast:
1😊
GM, Steve!
Home values are declining in every state.