The 2017 New Zealand Election Explained
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- Опубликовано: 26 июн 2024
- New Zealand has just gone through a general election. It turned out to be one of the closest races in New Zealand’s history full of twists and turns and ending on a knife-edge result. In this video, we look at how that election played out, from the system to the parties, the campaign and the results as they stand on election night.
Timestamps:
0:45 The System
2:21 The Parties
5:53 The Campaign
10:44 The Results
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Who's here after the 2020 election in NZ
“The 2020 election will be a different beast altogether”.
Well, you were right about that.
Update: NZ First has made their decision, I was wrong in my prediction that they would back the largest party (and block) and they went with Labour after Special votes evened the playing field a little with National losing 2 seats to Labour and the Greens. The Greens will give the Labour NZ First government support with a confidence and supply agreement, giving them a handful ministerial posts outside of cabinet while Winston Peters has been offered the position of Deputy Prime Minister along with some other ministerial positions for his party.
It's not that you were wrong, you just hadn't accounted for the special votes, if they were only going to have a 61 seat majority then Winston would have gone with National because 61 is too unstable, National lost two seats through by-elections last term, Labour would only need to lose 1 for the government to crumble so on those numbers your assessment was correct. However with boosted numbers Labour/Greens was the obvious pick for NZ First given their common ground, the fact that they were the Opposition together and the fact that neither party tried to destroy his party by releasing details around his superannuation payments.
I love the All Blacks
@@RubyDoobieScoo I always wondered why a government of 61 was considered unstable - good explanation :)
Also, history was on Labour's side here.
Winston Peters has played Kingmaker twice before, in 1996 and 2005. Each of those times, he backed the incumbent party for their 3rd term., then got hammered at the next election after that.
(Its worth noting that its rare for a government in NZ to last less than 2 terms or more than 3.)
Hence, Winston learned his lesson, and backed a new incoming government that hadn't collected up lots of baggage.
I also think the alleged leaking of his pension payments by National left a sour taste in his mouth.
@@liamcollins9183 they got hammered in the next election again
Impressively unbiased
Thanks, I tried my best. I'm also a swing voter not tied to supporting any one particular party.
Unimpressively goaded by the bias of the right-wing media..
National are not center-right. They're solid-right, as shown by politicalcompass.org, and they're much more socially conservative than shown, also.
The political compass is notoriously slanted, so it's best to take their interpretations with a grain of salt (e.g. it puts Swedish left wing parties in the upper-right quadrant).
AholeAtheist The organisation specifically states that the left and right mean economic left/right, it states nothing about how conservative a party is. Also Act the libertarian party is placed in the opposite of libertarian on the compass and placed on authoritarian side, a complete joke
Good Boy!! have a lolly!
Well, hi there, the only person I know so far to make New Zealand elections sound like an interesting topic.
Even elections can be interesting as long as a story can be made out of it. Arguably that is what makes sports interesting too, a story of who's underdog or dominant, or something.
I dunno. I don't watch sports regularly
US elections would be so much more interesting if we had this system
Qatar Dhabi not rlly, from what i can see its like rhe UK election which nobody cares about
Qatar Dhabi State level MMP for the House would be a good way to break the partisan binds. I would refuse this, however, without a return to election of Senators by the State government though.
Cryptic Cypher Mind if I ask why? The two seem unrelated. (Also, what's wrong with direct election of senators?)
+Belgium Mapping it's *nothing* like the UK system. The UK uses First Past the Post. NZ uses Mixed-Member Proportional.
USA also uses first-past-the-post in case anyone didn't know.
When you stumble upon a video that was uploaded an hour ago.
Welcome.
Oh Bernie, the only place you're stumbling is into our hearts.
Id really love to see another one of these with the NZ election in september!
I can tell you right now that 2020 election is highly in jacindas favour
It shouldn't be, this government has failed to deliver.
@@mcduck5 Bruh…
Will you also talk about the German federal election ?
Sir Klug von Scheiß Servus
Yeah, please do it! He can even use many of the same clips, because our election Systems are so similar
GenealTobiLP Was geht ? 😋
I would have needed to have already started a few weeks ago.
Soliloquy If you start now it might come out a little late but it would still be very interesting.... Pleeeeaaaseeee 🙏🙏
You didn't mention special votes, which normally swing towards the left. With 300,000 of these, it may cause a few seats from Nats to go to the Lab and green party. Ofcourse it wont be enough for majority, and kingmaker Winston Peters will be the decider, It helps increase the majority that this coallition will have.
If kingmaker Winston makes a queen then I might do an update video to talk about that. There are always bits that are left out of these stories.
Wow, just looked up special votes. NZ Herald is reporting that the NZEC estimates they may be up to 15% of total votes. That seems incredible!
I can't find equivalent data from the AEC, but I'd have to think the number in Australia would be much lower. Do you know if there's a particular reason the number of special votes in NZ seem to be so high?
I hope for nat/nzf
Jim Cullen At the 2016 AU election, the equivalent special vote was around 17%
There is no left left! Ersatz Labor abandoned even reforms with Clerk and Langie. Labor is Bourgeois to it's back teeth!
I never knew *Middle-earth* elections can be this interesting!
コイノ/ Koino this guy gets it
Im really happy you are making more videos
Damn, this was an amazing video! Haven't seen anything like it before. I hope you'll make more of these from different countries, if you can! :)
Thanks, a really good video as usual. I'd sort of worked most of it out, but trying to follow your election from Melbourne meant that I wasn't confident I understood everything, until your video explained some of the more arcane things..
This was amazing you should do more election videos
2017 just showed how much kiwis don’t understand MMP. We still vote with a FPTP mindset. Germany had an MMP election the same weekend with no party getting above ~30%. In MMP done properly there should be no such thing as a major party.
Nick Webster Germany's result - wasn't that from another "Grand Coalition" - where the major left and right parties form government together - and both losing popularity to an extent?
We voted for whomever we wanted. labour and national appeal to larger amounts of the population hence their large amount of votes.
The Nerdfighteria and Hello Internet references made me do a double take
Don't forget Veritasium, Vsauce, and PBS!
Didn't expect a Fermat's Last Theorem solution reference. Great video, it's a lot like what's been happening in the UK in some ways.
Thanks, this really gave me a good overview over your interresting political landscape, greetings from the other side, Austria. Keep it up, love your videos.
Also kudos to how you handled talking about the leaders leaving their parties, obviously Met's wasn't easy - but you didn't make it look uber messy like some media places tried to :) well respective and good video. HOPING NATIONAL DOESNT END UP WINNING... let's just hope for the special votes!
Your politcal gird is upisde down from the one i use and i was so confused for a second. Great vid tho
This is amazing. Cheers from Aus!
thanks for watching
Nerdfigheria, VSauce, PBS, CPG Grey/Hello Internet and Veritasium.
Also good man for uploading at 6am to fit yank time better
Being European based may have helped.
Another great video really enjoyed the CGP grey/HI references. It's always interesting to see how voter competition leads to governments most people aren't happy with.
For an anecdotal example, my friends agreed they would have preferred a opposition party by itself (Labour) over there party (National) and NZ first.
"Meteriana Tureia"
You wouldn't be conflating Metiria Turei and Tariana Turia, would you?
The upside down political compass map you used really confused me. How come you've got conservative at the bottom and progressive at the top?
No real reason, I just took it from votecompass.tvnz.co.nz
Hmm fair enough. I think the ABC does the same reversal at Australian elections.
I'm curious as to how accurate you think the _placements_ of each of the parties that TVNZ has provided are. I haven't followed the parties particularly closely, but I did notice that the placements given by the Political Compass (at www.politicalcompass.org/ ) are quite different than TVNZ's placement -- and not just in terms of where they put the centre. For example, TVNZ has NZ First as left moderate, while PC puts them as centre authoritarian.
As I said, I have no idea which, if either of them, is most accurate. Just found the disparity quite interesting.
something something land down under (yeah I know that's Australia.)
+Ponchoman 275 HA! That certainly would explain it! Apparently both New Zealand's TVNZ and Australia's ABC do the vertical flipping thing.
TVNZ scores on a Progressive - Conservative axis while politicalcompass scores Authoritarian - Libertarian, that may be part of the reason. I can see merit to both. NZ First can go either way, that's their strength. It could also be caused by differences in national views For example, in NZ antiimmigration is more of a left-wing idea (coming from limiting foreign investment) while in Europe antiimmigration is more right-wing (and with a more xenophobic flavour).
Only 5 parties in governement can't inmagine that here in the Netherlands at the moment.
we've got 13 parties in government at the moment.
Koen Buurman whats the average for nl?
You've got 13 parties not forming a government at the moment.
yeah www.tweedekamer.nl/kamerleden-en-commissies/wie-zit-waar
Well my friend, at least you guys do not have 36 parties as here in Brazil.
1:46 Elder Scrolls
Will you be making a 2020 Election video?
You should do the UK 2017 snap general election because that was very interesting
you explained it very well and Im from New Zealand on to the next election next month
will there be a sequel to the story?
I'm hoping I can get a sequel out.
Hey man, will you be covering the 2019 Australian Federal Election?
This comment section shows that not many people actually get the MMP system. What matters is not who gets the most seats, but who is able to make a majority coalition.
2:11 cheeky use of Cyrodiil has been noted
those political compasses are WAAAAYYY off
I like the music.
What program do you you to make these videos? Very well made video!
After Effects
very nice
1:59: I'm a little confused by the concept of an overhang seat. I looked at wikipedia, but it was still confusing. The version that I was able to understand was one where if one party gets more district seats than the party vote says it should, all the other parties get extra seats to keep the results proportional, increasing the number of seats. That doesn't seem to be the way you describe it. The video that helped me understand the system was in the context of German elections. Is this simply a difference between Germany and New Zealand's version of MMP, or did I understand the video wrong?
Yeah, this is a difference between the German and Kiwi implementations of MMP. Germany uses "leveling seats" to maintain proportionality when a party earns overhang seats. This comes at the expense of having far more extra seats added to the house. New Zealand doesn't give out these leveling seats, sacrificing full proportionality in order to keep the number of extra seats more limited.
thumbs up for the video
I love the Elder Scrolls provinces at around 1:45
OK, on second watch through of this, there was one thing that really stood out to me as odd. And it's the political manoeuvring made possible by the way MMP party lists work. You described two examples in this most recent election: Labor with the Maori seats, and ACT/National with ACT's one electorate. This is the sort of thing that seems tailor-made to _encourage_ the exact sort of strategic voting that better voting methods are designed to prevent. To take it to the extreme, a party could split itself into two separate parties: one contests only electorates (I'll call it party E), and one contests only proportional seats (party P). They coordinate and ask voters to be strategic, not only in a single seat like with the ACT, or with just the Maori seats like Labor did, but over _all_ the seats. This would surely make it look like party P was vastly underrepresented, and so they would get an enormous number of seats in the PR process.
Sure, the overhang system would mean it's not _quite_ as bad as if you didn't have that, but it would still make party P+E way more powerful than the system is designed to intend. That, to me, seems like an enormous problem with MMP.
Unless I'm missing something?
Jim Cullen I still haven't seen a better system than Ireland's PR-STV.
I tend to agree. I was actually slowly coming around to the idea of MMP (after initially being against it for quite reactionary reasons) until this video which made me realise that one big flaw. But I quite naturally find myself liking STV quite a lot.
We use it in Australia for our Senate, but I also really like the Irish system of making it essentially like IRV with multiple electorates merged into one, just like John Cleese advocates for in this video.
ruclips.net/video/NSUKMa1cYHk/видео.html
Though I do think that Ireland's 3-5 seat electorates could be in some cases problematic. Ideally, I'd have thought, 4-6, maybe even up to 8, would be an ideal number to get proper proportional representation.
What your describing is called a decoy list. And it can be an issue in certain mixed systems like MMP. In an election in Italy in the 2001 several decoy lists were run, turning Italy's mixed system (called scorporo) into a de facto parallel system. Preventing the usage of decoy lists is one thing that any country adopting MMP should be cognizant of.
Jim Cullen One problem with larger constituencies is that it's harder to canvas for votes over a broad area. Already, constituencies can cover more than one local authority area (I live in County Offaly, part of the Laois-Offaly constituency), each of which can have different rules about roadside politic advertising. People tend to vote for someone from their own county.
I liked the idea they floated the last time they talked about repealing MMP- divorce the electorate seats from the party vote seats, so that both the local and national electoral moods can be properly shown on the day without ending up with an Epsom situation.
As an American, it's really interesting to learn how real governments in other countries work. It must be nice having such extensive representation.
Nail and gear! Any tims here?
Soliloquy, how long is the election period in New Zealand. Is there a fixed period in which the election process must be completed?
The Governor General must issue the writs within 7 days of the dissolution or expiration of a parliament, which lasts for 3 years. The election period is 50 days of campaigning, and the election must be on a Saturday.
Sounds like you're getting mixed with the names: Metiria Turei and Tariana Turia
9:36 that's Fermat's last theorem! Or at least that famous case where it's really close.
1:30 nice veretasium reference
Crash Course meets numberphile
What party did you vote for?
Can you make a video on the "Turkish constitutional referendum 2017" ?
I can't wait for 2023
terrific video. very informative and unbiased
Unbiased?
He very obviously likes labour.
National made it very easy to criticize them.
For the fact that you are a Kiwi, it's impressive how you butcher pronouncing Metiria Turei so badly
Not only can you not say Metiria's name right. The characterization of NZFirst also left much to be desired.
1:46 Nice Elder Scrolls Reference
Seems to have an incredible amount of similarities to the UK election back in june
As a Kiwi who just voted in this election for the first time (Labour if you're curious) I'm glad you've made this video and it's amazing how unbaised you are!
1:31 nice veritasium logo :)
What timestamps in the description? :/
oops, I forgot them. they are added now. thanks for pointing it out.
It's amazing what qualifies for a scandal in New Zealand versus the US
The exact same thing?
Pretty similar results as the election here in Norway earlier this month
At first I thought the y-axis was the authority measurement like some compasses do, I was really confused on why the greens were in the Stalinist area.......
when your favorite party weren't mentioned...
it's not meteriana turia, it's meteria (met-ear-e-ah) turei (two-rey), and its not mariama, its marama.
Wow, there was a lot of info in here. Think I might have to watch it a few times before it fully sinks in. But thanks for sharing; it's a great video, as always.
Looking at the result, I wonder what you think about the fact that the electorate seats are elected by first past the post? Is there any advantage to doing it this way (FPTP+PR), as opposed to MMP via IRV+PR.
I also wonder if you have any thoughts about the 5% threshold. It makes some sense to keep out extreme minority parties from becoming a problem, but I also wonder if it might be a problem in that the many people who support all of these parties end up having effectively no voice in politics, since their vote is eliminated essentially without counting at all. It makes me wonder what a preferential *party* vote might look like. Perhaps just allowing a second preference that a vote would be counted as if the first preference failed to reach 5%.
A preferred party vote with a second option would help the minor parties a lot, the greens and Labour might even end up even I think since people would give their first choice to a small party and back up with a big one. Personally, I think 5% is a bit too high and would put it at 3% (perhaps while reducing the number of MPs to 100).
Oh, out of interest, who are the RUclipsrs you used in your examples? I recognise Hello Internet, Verstibablium, and the Vlogbrothers, but not the funny V symbol or the two heads in profile.
1:15 or Canadian Riding
Interesting to see a foreigners opinion on the election
He's from New Zealand
KIWIS where you at? i subbed to you for being a fellow kiwi and trtying to support us growing on this YT platform. I would of loved to see gareth morgan get a seat but i guess that aight happening. Can you make a video on how this term is going to effect legislation and the such, im not very politicul but id love your opinion. Keep up the good work and congrats on breaking 50k your content is great and ive been here around 10k. OUT OF CURIOUSITY WHAT PART YOU FROM
I'm originally from Karaka. Thanks for the support and 50K was a great thing to get!
100k wont take long mate, il be here when you do. Ah pretty much a aucklander haha im from crackcity (chch) but live in nelson atm. A topic you could possibly do would be the chch earthquake i think it could be interesting considering how many earthquakes have happened since then could be a cool comparison between how we handle and how others have aswell. if you decide to use my idea id be happy to share my experience living througgh it. enjoy your day bro il be waiting for the next killer vid
Reporting in
Taranaki Boi
WE NEED THIS IN THE UK!
I don't think you should be calling Winston's choice either way. Firstly we need to await the specials, a lot of student's who study away from their enrolled electorate will be in this count, as well as first time voters who enrolled and voted at the same time. (after the official rolls were printed.) This gives them a left-leaning demographic. Secondly it's Winston, he's not exactly the most predictable person on the planet. Personally I think he should go with the left bloc, now that's not me calling it, it's basically 50/50. Anyway, his campaign slogan was "Had enough" - does anyone who voted for this want the status quo? His policies are also more aligned with Labour, have a look at his "bottom lines" as summarised here -> www.reddit.com/r/newzealand/comments/71xp2p/the_most_important_man_in_new_zealand_right_now/dneyf1k/ Full disclosure; Labour voter.
4:39 Mariama Fox, and Te Uroa Flavell 🤔
thanks peters
Special votes out now. Labour and Greens 54 seats, National 56 seats.
I like your elder scrolls reference.
Kia kaha!
I agree, this is an awesome summary that explains succinctly and clearly our quirky little nation. I would love to share your future content if you could just improve your Maori pronunciation - hate to be nigly about an otherwise great video.
Most of my content isn't related to NZ so if you choose to stay then the Maori mispronunciation issue get's solved by default ;) (I have avoided NZ topics because of this).
Sounds pretty similar to Canadas system
So many similarities to both UK politics in general and the most recent election!
It's a bit of a coin toss for who Winston Peters will go for- on the one hand negotiations with National are likely to be more straightforward than the Labour-Greens bloc (and Peters has a history of first talking to the largest single party); but Labour-Greens apparently have more policies in common with NZ First, and with a more disorganised and desperate bloc Peters can presumably gain more leverage in negotiation with Labour-Greens than National.
I have 1 issue with this video, National are more center than center-right
Think your still a bit early to call which way Peter's will go.... Does the Tab do odds or this? If they do the Longshot would be worth a punt.
this reminds of of the British election this year
Tamrielic province elections?
“accused labour of an $11b hole in its budget”
its always so interesting hearing about budgetary policies in other countries cause here in the us we just take it as a given that we’re gonna be running at least a multi hundred billion dollar deficit no matter who’s in power (at least speaking as a zoomer, tho im aware that there were a couple years in the clinton admin that ran a surplus)
Thanks for this! As an american, i truly do enjoy keeping myself up to speed with whats going on with my Anglosphere bros :D god save auscannzukus
I wonder if any of the channels he referred to saw this
Chan R Hopefully HI talk about this. NZ and elections seem to be common topics on the podcast.
4:12 Metiriana Turirei 🤔
this is the sort of story that politicians tell their kids at bedtime
Since when has PBS been a political party in NZ?
Since about the same time as Hello Internet and the Vlogbrothers, I assume.
We have the exact same voting system over here in Germany. And we just had an election as well.
With the German system, the larger party gets to choose who can be in a coalition rather than the smaller parties, but yes its very similar.
Explain the Connecticut state election
For a time stuck only in US politics, is good to see other political systems and elections. Even better in this hemisphere on the planet (#ThereArePeopleInTheSouthernHemisfere).
A good video! :-)
I didn't know that 3 provinces of Tamriel were part of New Zealand
How about making a video about the German Election
The NSDAP is finally making a comeback.
ⵔⵓⴽⴰⵜⴽⴰⵜ
The NSDAP isn't even allowed in the German Election.
Nazi's making a come back ja !
1:42 PBS?
no coverage of this here in the USA, always interesting to see how other western democracies work
Jesus! You didn't pronounce Marama Fox's name right either..
Who cares.