The Real Estate Debt Reset Has Begun

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  • Опубликовано: 5 фев 2025
  • Ken McElroy explores the real estate challenges ahead as rising interest rates and cap rates disrupt the market, repricing properties and putting deals under stress. Learn how experienced investors can capitalize on this wave of distressed properties in 2025.
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Комментарии • 202

  • @KenMcElroy
    @KenMcElroy  Месяц назад +21

    If you want to support the channel, please share this video

    • @AlchemistJedi
      @AlchemistJedi Месяц назад +1

      i love you said dscr needs to be 1.8. Especially with expenses going up due to inflation round 2 incoming. We need the extra meat on the bone to stay profitable

    • @petelipson3769
      @petelipson3769 Месяц назад

      Ken, i read your book ABC's of R.E. Investing for the first time 15 years ago. Have read the hard copy 3,4 times and listened to the compact disc version in my vehicle 5x plus. My investment in your book has returned me 1,000+%........we own in Colo and Neb......thank you so much.

    • @thearmy88ify
      @thearmy88ify Месяц назад

      No one who had half a brain took out a variable rate loan when rates were at 2.5-3% in 2021

  • @Ji-Min-j7b
    @Ji-Min-j7b Месяц назад +213

    Mortgage rates are currently at an all time high since 2000(23 years) and based on statistics on inflation, we might see that number skyrocket further, a 30-year fixed rate was only 5% this time last year, so do I just keep waiting for a housing crash before buying or redirect my focus to the equity market

    • @Nernst96
      @Nernst96 Месяц назад +1

      The stock market is no different, to maintain profit you need to have some in-depth knowledge on the market. I mostly just buy and hold stocks, but my portfolio has been mostly in the red for quite awhile now. Unfortunately to be able to make good gains, you’ll need to be consistent and restructure your portfolio frequently.

    • @PatrickLloyd-
      @PatrickLloyd- Месяц назад +1

      In my opinion, it was much easier investing back in the 80s but it’s a lot trickier now, those making consistent profit in these times are professionals reason I’ve been using an advisor for the past 5 years to consistently build my portfolio in preparations for retirement.

    • @PhilipDunk
      @PhilipDunk Месяц назад +1

      @@PatrickLloyd- My partner’s been considering going the same route, could you share more info please on the advisor that guides you

    • @PatrickLloyd-
      @PatrickLloyd- Месяц назад +1

      My CFA, Sophie Lynn Carrabus is a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.

    • @RobbieNixon-d1w
      @RobbieNixon-d1w Месяц назад +1

      Benevolence, this reference seems valid.. Just inputted her full name on my browser and found her site without sweat, 15 years of experience is certainly striking! very much appreciate it

  • @investfourmore
    @investfourmore Месяц назад +8

    One of my commercial loans came due this year after 5 years. The bank called me. Refied it with no appraisal, $500 fee, 6.5%, and with my lower loan amount the payment was about the same.

    • @AK-rza
      @AK-rza Месяц назад +1

      Yes, if you didn't over pay at the start then you should be fine. The issue of over paying up front exponentially increases with an increasing property size. I'm guessing you were on a 20 year or less amortization which also plays a big factor.

    • @Another-Layer
      @Another-Layer Месяц назад

      Without all the details of your project and the depth of your pockets there’s no way judge how this played out for you.

  • @PASCALDAB
    @PASCALDAB Месяц назад +241

    In the current economic climate, a home is not the best investment. I've already sold my Boca Grande area home, but I want to invest roughly $200,000 in stocks since I've heard that even in challenging times, investors may turn a profit. Any excellent ideas for stocks?

    • @DonaldStokes-p
      @DonaldStokes-p Месяц назад +5

      The truth is that if you make the right picks, you could make killer riches very quickly, although such profit usually needs expertise, as in hedge funds or financial managers. I personally prefer the latter.

    • @viviancarolgioao
      @viviancarolgioao 29 дней назад +3

      Due to my demanding job, I lack the time to thoroughly assess my investments and analyze individual stocks. Consequently, for the past seven years, I have enlisted the services of a fiduciary who actively manages my portfolio to adapt to the current market conditions. This strategy has allowed me to navigate the financial landscape successfully, making informed decisions on when to buy and sell. Perhaps you should consider a similar approach.

    • @mikey43221
      @mikey43221 29 дней назад

      @@viviancarolgioao who is your advisor?

    • @viviancarolgioao
      @viviancarolgioao 29 дней назад

      My CFA ’’ Sharon Ann Meny, a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market..

    • @mikey43221
      @mikey43221 29 дней назад

      Thank you for this tip. It was easy to find your coach. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her resume.

  • @iamone469
    @iamone469 Месяц назад +5

    What a concise, fabulous presentation! Although many of us so called insiders know the predicament on 2008 and predictions for 2025, Ken went fully technical (giving us detailed organized specs), but described in the simplest terms.. Good job, Ken! Thanks, AB

    • @scottleggejr
      @scottleggejr Месяц назад

      This is all super basic CFO stuff. It's a good topic to know if you keep on the track. "Cost of cash" is the general topic.

  • @edshannon5406
    @edshannon5406 Месяц назад +20

    This formula doesn't work with properties valued at 1 million or less because investors like you are just buying them up with no debt to the bank (all cash). I have investors from all over the country calling me daily to buy my multi unit all cash. I really enjoyed the refresher course on NOI and Cap rate for example though. Thank you again!

    • @derekmason1790
      @derekmason1790 Месяц назад

      Saw on X yesterday that 40% of homes in Cleveland were sold to out of state llcs.

    • @brianheath5091
      @brianheath5091 Месяц назад

      So you’re saying it will be impossible for a new investor to buy a small apartment building in the near future, because we’ll be outbid by the big dogs? Great…

    • @thetimberlandinvestor
      @thetimberlandinvestor Месяц назад

      Investor demand has been falling since 2021.

  • @ccolburn4945
    @ccolburn4945 Месяц назад +8

    great explanation on this very easy to understand i work the maintenance side of multi family what most of these buyer never learned was asset preservation these properties are a mess on top of value going down most properties have been run into the ground with lack of parts and inexperienced help most of these properties will need ton of cash to bring them back up to par

  • @anazuniga3474
    @anazuniga3474 9 дней назад

    Really insightful breakdown! The way you explained the impact of rising interest rates on debt service coverage is so relevant, especially with how much pressure it puts on variable loans. It's interesting to see how closely NOI and LTV interplay with cap rates in this environment-definitely highlights why so many deals are struggling to pencil right now. Appreciate the clear explanation of such a nuanced topic.

  • @fudogwhisperer3590
    @fudogwhisperer3590 Месяц назад +39

    Not only that, insurance prices are going NUTS too, due to inflation. Here in Florida its up 200 to 400%. Its insane.

    • @krueger367
      @krueger367 Месяц назад

      It's theft... federal reserve... a non gooberment entity is allowed to create money out of thin air. Devaluing the dollars through ppl have to work to earn... in doing so causes inflation. Home equity appears like your home is worth more. They than can steal more money from the ppl through taxes as well as insurance going up. Oh... not to mention wages never really go up that much.. never keeping up with them inflating currency units. We are forced into debt slavery.

    • @Steve-wz5pz
      @Steve-wz5pz Месяц назад +6

      Insurance prices are up primarily because of the increasing claims activity directly arising from climate change-related severe weather.

    • @Jimbo12880
      @Jimbo12880 Месяц назад

      That's not inflation, that's just greed. THEY need more of your money that way they can sit pretty while they deny your claim

    • @sudiptaraxit3778
      @sudiptaraxit3778 Месяц назад +3

      If I were an insurer, I would avoid Florida.

    • @a.m.m.4592
      @a.m.m.4592 Месяц назад +2

      Increased claims are driving insurance premiums increases.
      Illinois had a big hail storm in May. Soon as late Spring hit, everyone got new roofs via insurance. Cost ranging from $12k-&$60k.
      If you drove around the suburbs every day from May to October a new roof was going up.

  • @Austin1990
    @Austin1990 Месяц назад +7

    I looked at a new, local, multiplex. It was only a few percent return after expenses. You literally lose money to do all the work of managing a property when compared to just buying a Treasury.

    • @PinkFZeppelin
      @PinkFZeppelin Месяц назад

      Even after you calculate the equity gained by debt service?

    • @frederickmuhlbauer9477
      @frederickmuhlbauer9477 Месяц назад

      Buy a treasury Uhh no thanks I’m buying bullion

    • @Austin1990
      @Austin1990 Месяц назад +1

      @@PinkFZeppelin The payments initially go mostly toward interest. Only roughly for the last third of the mortgage do the payments largely go toward the principle, which is why banks want people to refinance around that time. So, the return is very nonlinear when considering equity.
      For a 30yr mortgage, the average equity received per year would be 3.3%, which is still less than a Treasury. And, for the first 20 years, it will be even less than that.
      The biggest issue I had with it was how tight the finances were. You couldn't afford to have one of the four apartments empty for a single month because the margins were so tight. I wouldn't have been able to afford to live in one of the units.

    • @PinkFZeppelin
      @PinkFZeppelin Месяц назад

      @@Austin1990 Maybe I’m missing something. But a 3.3% return on the cost of the property is still far more than the return you’d get on cash somewhere else. You have 5x leverage on the property. Meaning a 15% return from equity on cash. Also if you keep the down payment small enough you can have cash for vacancies.

    • @Austin1990
      @Austin1990 Месяц назад

      @@PinkFZeppelin I am not a real estate person. I was just looking at the finances of getting into real estate What do you mean by 5x leverage? Are you talking about borrowing against the equity?

  • @DonaldMark-ne7se
    @DonaldMark-ne7se Месяц назад +4

    I think it's time to make it more appealing for potential buyers. Real estate can be quite the rollercoaster! the stress and uncertainty are getting to me. I think I'll cut rents to attract potential buyers and exit the market, but i'm at crossroads if to allocate the entire $680k liquidity value to my stock portfolio?

    • @Jamessmith-12
      @Jamessmith-12 Месяц назад +4

      "Overall, buyers hold a lot of the cards right now, and sellers are having to give out more concessions to close a deal." All the best, buying on sale is actually one of the best ways to invest in stocks, and advisors are ideally suited for such task

    • @kevinmarten
      @kevinmarten Месяц назад +3

      Until the Fed clamps down even further I think we're going to see hysteria due to rampant inflation. If you are in cross roads or need sincere advise on the best moves to take now with financial markets will be best you seek a fin-professional with fiduciary responsibilities who knows about mortgage-backed securities for proper guidance.

    • @JacquelinePerrira
      @JacquelinePerrira Месяц назад +2

      this sounds considerable! think you know any advisors i can get on the phone with? i'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation

    • @kevinmarten
      @kevinmarten Месяц назад +2

      There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’ Carol Vivian Constable” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.

    • @JacquelinePerrira
      @JacquelinePerrira Месяц назад +1

      She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran a Google search on her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.

  • @bryangionet4949
    @bryangionet4949 Месяц назад +10

    The DSCR is one of the most important factors for the bank I'm currently working with. Ken I think you're the only one talking about commercial real estate on RUclips that has ever mentioned DSCR.

    • @janalgos
      @janalgos Месяц назад +3

      1.8 DSCR requirement seems way high.... especially for class A

  • @Another-Layer
    @Another-Layer Месяц назад +2

    As a retired fund SVP and banker, my experience from the 2008 great recession is that banks didn’t turnaround bad loans overnight. Taking back a property and putting it back on the market is sooooo slow, years. Remember there’s loan guarantees, liquidity and net worth backing these loans so these properties have to go through that process too. Most of the regional banks keep everything (shadow inventory) hush and some already know from their watch list that they’re insolvent, so why declare it and not just enjoy the ride until the rates are dropped. I’m hearing the insider rumblings and it’s going to get crazy because all projects requiring loan resets have such unique variables. The only way to kick the can down the road is to lower rates and that IS going to happen to try and fix this…Fed knows the problem. They don’t want another bank bail out situation. The play is to delay even through legal means any refi until at least Q4 2025 and hope the rates save the project. If we have job loss with vacancies all bets are off.

  • @atenas80525
    @atenas80525 Месяц назад

    EXCELLENT VIDEO - thanks for walking through the steps, piece at a time

  • @Ahmed-b3t3k
    @Ahmed-b3t3k Месяц назад +1

    How to analysing a deal and How can you determine the real price of a deal?

  • @HenryBartlett-b1l
    @HenryBartlett-b1l 11 дней назад

    Here in UK, building owners and managing agents are severely lacking in energy management and maintenance knowledge. They are constantly worrying about cost not content, because they don't understand what they are being told. This leads to shocking overheads. A"dont touch it, analyse it" attitude is, I would suggest, a good start. What do we have,how does it work and is it effective? ; approach.

  • @philipmehl9355
    @philipmehl9355 Месяц назад +1

    Where do u find distressed 17MM properties?

  • @RyanDehaney
    @RyanDehaney Месяц назад

    Great info as always.

  • @taeganchoi7783
    @taeganchoi7783 6 дней назад

    So much changes when you have a significant amount of money and an ability to put down say 80%. When you can put down so much, the debt coverage ratio a basically an afterthought assuming you have tenants and your interest rate is not extraordinarily high. Your only downside is that you lose out on some LIRR, but then again, that does not matter a whole lot if you are buying a fairly stable asset, say Core-plus or some desirable residential property.

  • @3978te
    @3978te Месяц назад +6

    17,5M - 70% out of 25M, not 75%
    7,5M - 30% out of 25M, not 25%

  • @theodoroseidler7072
    @theodoroseidler7072 Месяц назад +1

    A small quirk with the reasoning: if Trumps policies produce inflation (and they should) even though the loan has a fixed 7% interest rate, if rates go up and the country enters a recession (assuming it isn't in one already) the NOI should go down, which also causes the banks to reevaluate the property. I would only do this if I had money set aside to payoff the debt.

  • @delfimalvaro
    @delfimalvaro Месяц назад +5

    Insane that info like this is available for free! 🔥

  • @Certifiedtreesindy
    @Certifiedtreesindy Месяц назад +4

    nice class. good content

  • @arnocuban
    @arnocuban Месяц назад +5

    Excellent video! Ken is giving us master classes of real estate for free! Who needs to pay for college?!

  • @danielgreen9291
    @danielgreen9291 Месяц назад

    I'm an LP on deal that is in exactly the same situation. They're trying to raise more capital from the original LPs. I'm not re-investing.

  • @URQ1450
    @URQ1450 Месяц назад +2

    Can you show a deal on a smaller scale something around 400k pls

  • @sudiptaraxit3778
    @sudiptaraxit3778 Месяц назад

    Thank you Ken. Very useful.

  • @ColinTWest
    @ColinTWest Месяц назад +1

    Thank you so much for making all of your videos

  • @Scenthype
    @Scenthype Месяц назад +1

    “NOI is what the bank is loaning against”is the best explanation I’ve heard for that measurement

  • @pddellow
    @pddellow Месяц назад +1

    I have a DST exactly in that situation.. Probably going to lose my investment. (it is a multi apartment complex) MY question is.. can we get out with just losing our initial investment or can the bank hit us up for more money?

    • @nathanowens8365
      @nathanowens8365 Месяц назад +1

      I think it depends if you’re in a non recourse state or not

  • @Ricocase
    @Ricocase Месяц назад

    Why buy a cap rate lower than interest rates + inflation + food/energy?

  • @ThaddeusBloodRaven
    @ThaddeusBloodRaven Месяц назад

    My duplex is in a city where the council voted in their own ordinance to inspect and fine properties for bullllshit items. I’m being fined for screens on windows that don’t even open.

  • @lubosimaboshe
    @lubosimaboshe Месяц назад +1

    Thank you I have been trying to understand debt coverage ratio..this video lesson explains it clearly.😊thanks

  • @ZoliOnTube
    @ZoliOnTube 27 дней назад

    Mortgages at 3-4% were fixed for 30 years, but till then won't be anymore pressure to sell:(

  • @cpcreit
    @cpcreit Месяц назад +20

    History does sort of rhyme..2004-2006, lots of adjustable NINJA loans set to readjust come 2008-2009, right in time for the bust. These commercial deals done in 2021/2022, fast forward 3-5 yrs, we are there, 2025/2026 will be very interesting to see how it shakes out....

    • @jimdoak101
      @jimdoak101 Месяц назад

      Only this time, the Fed won't be able to save the credit markets and stop the downward spiral of commercial real estate prices; like they were able to do in 2009. During the 2008 financial crisis, the only bag holders were the original property buyers who bought during the 2004-2007 window and found themselves underwater when the real estate bubble popped in 2008. This time when the bubble pops, not only will the original buyers get crushed, but also so will the first wave of bottom feeder investors get crushed as the doom loop of credit tightening and illiquidity continues to spiral out of control. Best to wait until after interest rates peak and, as the saying goes, "... when there's blood in the streets."

    • @rangerdoc1029
      @rangerdoc1029 Месяц назад +1

      History may not repeat, but it sure does rhyme.

  • @keithray7471
    @keithray7471 Месяц назад

    Now is the time to do a variable rate. Why would you do a fixed when are rates are expected to be flat at best?

    • @bpb5541
      @bpb5541 Месяц назад

      Becuase yields are going up not down. Be really careful. The exact same thing happened in 2008. Once those ARMs kicked in people got crushed. I think the yields go way higher from here.... not lower.

  • @ryankent7000
    @ryankent7000 Месяц назад +2

    Yeah... if you can find a seller willing to let go of 8 million just to not loose a couple hundred thousand every year...

  • @WTF-sh4is
    @WTF-sh4is Месяц назад +5

    I personally would never sign on a deal where the cap rate (6%) is less than my borrow cost (7%). That’s foolish and a recipe for disaster later on. So the problem is worse when that seller goes to fire sale because they are going to offer less than $17m to account for their higher borrow cost. They are fu*ked

  • @fernipascual
    @fernipascual Месяц назад

    Is this an opportunity to buy reverse REIT ETFs?

  • @joelumia323
    @joelumia323 Месяц назад +3

    If the original investors have to add 500k when they sell to get out of the deal, why wouldn't they just hold it for 5 years, pay the 125k negative cashflow, and hope interest rates come down.

  • @humanyoda
    @humanyoda Месяц назад

    Do you, in this presentation, assume that the property owner has a variable-rate loan? Is that situation common?

  • @notesc821
    @notesc821 Месяц назад +1

    Thank you!

  • @aspiceoflife
    @aspiceoflife Месяц назад

    Is the cap rate always equal to the cash-on-cash return? They are in the video (4%)

  • @DorianGreer
    @DorianGreer Месяц назад

    So, why would you ever get a variable-rate loan?

  • @rodoconnor3
    @rodoconnor3 Месяц назад

    The calculated cash flow allows for interest payment only and not the principle of the loan, is the example assumed as interest only loan?

  • @bpb5541
    @bpb5541 Месяц назад +1

    I thnk interest rates hit 7% sometime in 2025. It will hit 10% sometime in 2026. Regardless the yields are going up and 98% of the people playing this game have no idea what that means. But they will.

  • @perrytaylor8240
    @perrytaylor8240 Месяц назад

    Somewhat painfully basic question... in your above example are the cash flow, NOI and loan payments on a yearly timeframe? The math works out for paying 7% on 12.75 per year ~$892,000. Just used to seeing loan payments on a monthly basis.

  • @Jahguaar
    @Jahguaar Месяц назад

    Knowledge supports growth.

  • @MikeVenom-mini
    @MikeVenom-mini Месяц назад

    Ken! Working hard i see

  • @Truth24434
    @Truth24434 Месяц назад

    I wouldn’t call it so soon. Wait for next summer to confirm. Winter is always slow.

  • @Thaksinnaenaudon103
    @Thaksinnaenaudon103 Месяц назад +1

    Thank you very much

  • @theodoroseidler7072
    @theodoroseidler7072 Месяц назад

    First rule of realestate investing: leverage works both ways.

  • @CrackedCandy
    @CrackedCandy Месяц назад

    How do we take advantage of this Ken? How do we position ourselves

  • @crouchhill
    @crouchhill Месяц назад +3

    What's with the picture of Burry 🤔

  • @LRey85
    @LRey85 Месяц назад

    Who would have a variable loan back then? Most people have a fixed rate loan

  • @christopherf3918
    @christopherf3918 Месяц назад

    I think cap rates are going much higher. Getting low rates is going to be a lot tougher than people think.

  • @stevencarroll9613
    @stevencarroll9613 Месяц назад

    Def makes sense why Financial market is outperforming right now to help set up the buying spree in 2025. Then its prob safe to assume REIT markets will start cooking late next year and into 2026. Great info here

  • @jimdoak101
    @jimdoak101 Месяц назад +6

    If these commercial properties are in distress because interest rates went from 4% (in 2021) to 7% (in 2024) and you buy these distressed properties in 2025 at somewhat of a discount (compared to the original owner who bought at the top of the market in 2021), what happens to the value of your investment if interest rates rise from 7% (in 2024) to 10% (in 2028)? Wouldn't values just continue to fall? And if so, wouldn't you just end up becoming the 2nd bag holder of a rapidly crashing commercial investment property?
    So basically, during this period of runaway Federal deficit spending which is igniting historic levels of inflation (due also in part to the Federal Reserve's current policy of balance sheet tapering), aren't you just foolishly gambling that interest rates on commercial real estate loans aren't going to continue to rise after 2025?
    Are you really prepared to gamble millions of your dollars that the US government and Fed are willing or even able to prevent the commercial asset bubble from violently popping and crashing?
    In stock trading, I believe that the term is called "trying to catch a falling knife".

    • @craigb3154
      @craigb3154 Месяц назад +3

      It also assumes you always have tenants who not only exist, but are willing to pay more and more each year.

    • @AK-rza
      @AK-rza Месяц назад +1

      All real estate is local... So it's tough to generalize.
      I like your thought process but don't forget how much money is out there to buy stuff. Also, always keep track of the cost to build. This is a huge factor and will keep most locales with high prices even if there is a nation wide decline. Only those areas overbuilt will have big decreases to value. Most markets are lacking inventory

    • @eddiemalvin
      @eddiemalvin Месяц назад

      You simply need to factor that risk into the offer price. Sellers are fearing the same so some are willing to consider steep discounts. On the East Coast, we're seeing properties offered below market and we're offering 20-30% below that and some sellers are taking us up on it.

    • @d-jbrazovan698
      @d-jbrazovan698 Месяц назад +1

      I’ve heard Ken talk about this before. Yes maybe discounting 10% to retail or what was retail might still be problematic. But if you’re picking up properties up at a more significant discount (let’s say 40%) then even if cap rates continue to decompress and values go down you will be okay.
      Also you are assuming that you also are getting a variable rate loan that needs to be refinanced with higher interest. If you get fixed rate financing and the property adequately cash flows you are set. You just need to watch out for other variable costs like insurance, taxes, utilities (depending on lease types), etc.

    • @d-jbrazovan698
      @d-jbrazovan698 Месяц назад

      @@craigb3154yes but that’s why you need to look at absorption rates etc to see how the demand trend will continue. It’s not a matter of if the tenants exist, but what rents will need to be to be competitive in your local market

  • @chuchiyang7031
    @chuchiyang7031 Месяц назад

    Pay attention to the ads 😊

  • @gregariousgaming9787
    @gregariousgaming9787 Месяц назад +1

    Damn that was fire explanation

  • @zalsavas1279
    @zalsavas1279 Месяц назад

    It sounds like using short term loans is gambling. So what would your financing terms look like if you were to buy the property in this example? Let’s assume interest rates go to 10% in 3-5 yrs from now. How would you avoid the same problem happening to you as the original buyer in this example? Thx

    • @jimdoak101
      @jimdoak101 Месяц назад +2

      You wouldn't avoid it; you would just become bag holder #2 in a long line of soon-to-be bag holders. Buying commercial real estate as the bubble is popping (or just after it has popped) is a money loser. Leveraging the purchase of commercial real estate with short-term variable-rate loans after the bubble has popped is financial suicide.

  • @echoeversky
    @echoeversky Месяц назад

    The T10Y3M just went POSITIVE for the first time since Oct. of 22. This uninverting should be an additional spicy indication of the expected recession.

  • @robertfagan8363
    @robertfagan8363 Месяц назад

    Why wouldn't the lender's simply hold the property for a few years?

  • @NeonPolygon
    @NeonPolygon Месяц назад +195

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      @blueyed147babe Месяц назад

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      @AnithaB-ox6iu Месяц назад

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      @DiogoWestphal-hp6wu Месяц назад

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      @Hernan21132 Месяц назад

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    • @Gary-vg3cg
      @Gary-vg3cg Месяц назад

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  • @adventurer4188
    @adventurer4188 3 дня назад

    The deflationary situation is staggering, if FED doesn’t pivot soon, & accept 2% inflation rate is not sustainable without substantial pain for the entire country. Eating the equity of everyday citizens due to government overspending, then handing it off cheap assets to the mega wealthy will crumble the economy, & hurt stability for the entire world.

  • @edo4713
    @edo4713 Месяц назад

    Even with the numbers you used your still extremely high. Building have been selling for 50%-75% off. In commercial real estate. Slowly tricking over to multi family and residential. So many people who jumped on this jumped late. If you see it advertised online you’re late.

  • @maplemutt158
    @maplemutt158 Месяц назад +1

    Generally correct, but the example is extreme. Max multifamily devaluation is closer to 20% and improving, so the $25M -> $20M worst case. Also, decent value adds produce 20%-40% increase in NOI, not 10%-20%. There will be more total losses than usual, but not as bad as this video implies.

  • @elijahsnow3119
    @elijahsnow3119 Месяц назад +3

    I think we’re going to see a shake out of the difference between the Value Adds you have done and the very shaky Value Adds i’ve seen locally.

  • @avasdv
    @avasdv Месяц назад

    30 year fixed residential good stable market

  • @mikewatch1487
    @mikewatch1487 Месяц назад

    Fools paradise when rates were 3%. Us seniors finally have interest rates that are better then inflation. Us savers have a place to park our money

  • @87pony
    @87pony Месяц назад

    Who the hell got a variable rate loan when they were under 3%?

  • @omved9217
    @omved9217 Месяц назад

    Why the value of property went down from 25M to 17M

  • @tettsubushi
    @tettsubushi Месяц назад +1

    we are already seeing carnage in the rent-stabilized arena in NYC

  • @jonesmatthew7511
    @jonesmatthew7511 Месяц назад

    I still don't see a margin of safety even at a 7 or 8 % cap rate... I'm out

  • @shirleygriffin7672
    @shirleygriffin7672 Месяц назад +2

    Thanks for sharing today

  • @PropertyTurkeyCom
    @PropertyTurkeyCom 12 дней назад

    The global real estate market is clearly facing some serious turmoil with rising interest rates and distressed properties becoming more common, especially in the U.S. and U.K. However, there’s a golden opportunity waiting in Turkey's real estate market. With its stable economy and government-backed initiatives, Turkey offers a dynamic and resilient property market that isn’t as heavily impacted by these debt maturity issues. You mentioned that 2025 will be a year to buy up distressed properties, but think about diversifying into Turkish real estate where coastal homes can be obtained for a fraction of the price of major cities like London or New York. Plus, the rental yields and potential for price appreciation are significant. Let’s chat about how you can take advantage of these opportunities and secure a safe, high-return investment in Turkey!

  • @scottkidd1969
    @scottkidd1969 Месяц назад

    Definitely going to be some corrections, adjustments, restructures and properties going back to the lender. Not going to be full.

  • @BigM0neyHustla
    @BigM0neyHustla Месяц назад

    Its gonna pop

  • @mr.j5092
    @mr.j5092 Месяц назад

    Why is this not part of High School curriculum??? 🤯

  • @fivestar6015
    @fivestar6015 Месяц назад +1

    Not a 3% to 4% jump. It's a 100% jump...and that's why they are in trouble.

  • @mrjeff9169
    @mrjeff9169 Месяц назад

    Truth

  • @coolbrothergee5401
    @coolbrothergee5401 Месяц назад

    @ken mcelroy Will this happen to residential real estate? If not, why not?

    • @WTF-sh4is
      @WTF-sh4is Месяц назад

      Because it’s fixed rate debt on all residential real estate.

    • @AJohnson0325
      @AJohnson0325 Месяц назад

      It would probably affect an ARM or balloon mortgage. If you have a fixed rate then probably not

    • @JessicaBurrell-gd9kq
      @JessicaBurrell-gd9kq Месяц назад

      No they are valued differently

    • @Exitstrategies1
      @Exitstrategies1 Месяц назад

      Residential is driven by really only 2 things. Access to debt and multifamily rental prices. If access to debt grows prices increase or remain stable, if access is cut (due to systemic risks, or idiosyncratic risk) the opinion of value typically decreases. Multifamily rental rates either compress or inflate residential values, i.e. if the delta widens regarding renting vs local avg mortgage that will drive value up or down. These cause 2nd and 3rd order of effects, if combined, can create volatility within residential real estate (regardless of fixed residential rates).

  • @jackgoldman1
    @jackgoldman1 Месяц назад +1

    Return to normal, mean reversion, is painful for debt addicts, drug addicts, crypto addicts, speculation addicts, lying cheaters who have to go back to their honest loving spouse. It is painful to go back to normal. Seven per cent is the normal natural mortgage rate and interest rate. It is painful to go back to normal.

    • @jimdoak101
      @jimdoak101 Месяц назад

      Before the Fed got involved in manipulating credit markets and suppressing interest rates in 2000, normal mortgage rates ranges were between 7% and 11% (and up to 18% during high inflationary times).
      So, the question must be asked, as we continue to head into inflationary times, doesn't it stand to reason that mortgage interest rates will continue to rise as well?
      Also, is the Fed even able to suppress consumer interest rates anymore? The charts say no they are not.

  • @Madridstrat
    @Madridstrat Месяц назад

    I think it's time to make it more appealing for potential buyers. Real estate can be quite the rollercoaster! the stress and uncertainty are getting to me. I think I'll cut rents to attract potential buyers and exit the market, but i'm at crossroads if to allocate the entire $680k liquidity value to my stock portfolio?

    • @jimdoak101
      @jimdoak101 Месяц назад

      What makes you think that a commercial real estate crash isn't going to bleed over and cause contagion within the entire US economy and a severe downturn within the stock market?

  • @TheMohamed1952
    @TheMohamed1952 Месяц назад

    Bro .. if you really care about people .. don't advice anyone to buy any real estate now .. unless they are rich and can handle shocks

  • @orwhat24
    @orwhat24 Месяц назад

    This is not accidental. It’s a plan.

  • @jnucleo
    @jnucleo Месяц назад

    Stated in simple terms: these greedy investors that bought those properties at the height of the stimulus are going to lose their a$$eS and the vultures are waiting in the trees to start feeding.

  • @SomeUserNameBlahBlah
    @SomeUserNameBlahBlah Месяц назад +1

    This is one of several reasons why the Fed is lowering rates. So there won't be much to worry about.

    • @patmagic3301
      @patmagic3301 Месяц назад

      1% after December coming cut? Only 3-4 to go lol, not likely for some time. 2025 will be rough.

    • @AJohnson0325
      @AJohnson0325 Месяц назад

      The federal funds rate is about 4.5 percent buy mortgages are still high

    • @jimdoak101
      @jimdoak101 Месяц назад +2

      Even if the Fed was to continue to lower Fed Funds rates, it will have absolutely no effect on slowing the rise of consumer interest rates; which will continue as long as US deficit spending continues to throw gasoline on the inflation fire. The Fed has no more tools left in the tool box to tame interest rates within consumer credit markets. And once the bulk of investors in the credit markets figure this out, consumer interest rates will continue to explode higher and higher.

    • @patmagic3301
      @patmagic3301 Месяц назад

      How do we pay down the debt, become an exporter of goods and energy, correct unfair trade deficits, stop being the world police 🤷‍♂️

    • @jimdoak101
      @jimdoak101 Месяц назад

      ​@@patmagic3301 If Russa directed the issuance of a BRICS, asset-backed / gold backed currency as well as a BRICS-denominated debt instrument (think of it like a "Russian T-bill"), it would force the US to have to introduce a new "reset currency" that would have to be a digital currency or an asset-backed / gold-backed currency (call it either digital Fed Coin or gold-backed physical Fed coin).
      Every US citizen would get 90 days to trade in their old US dollars for the new Fed Coin at a fixed-price exchange rate.
      The minute that happens, then all that the US treasury has to do is just literally print the old US dollar into oblivion, Weimar-style, and then pay off its old US dollar-denominated debt in full, with ease, with hyper-deflated US dollars. As the old US dollar is being printed into toilet paper, the new Fed-Coin value will remain stable.
      THAT is exactly the time the US will have to start being a net exporter of goods and energy, THAT is exactly when the US will have to start to correct unfair trade deficits, and THAT is exactly when the US will no longer be able to borrow money to finance being the world's police.

  • @alexanderatta-mora7919
    @alexanderatta-mora7919 Месяц назад +16

    Ken, you’re absolutely one of the most important living investors in the industry now. You’re certainly my go-to voice for reason and experience, but can you please ease up on the ‘sky-is-falling’ click bait? It seems off-brand to why people come to you.

    • @litical3719
      @litical3719 Месяц назад +5

      only way u can survive and get your message out on yt

    • @SK-lf1cr
      @SK-lf1cr Месяц назад +3

      It’s what gets the clicks sadly 😅

    • @ThoneJones
      @ThoneJones Месяц назад

      An important real estate investor? You’re going to have to explain that one to me.

    • @alexanderatta-mora7919
      @alexanderatta-mora7919 Месяц назад

      The onus is on you to learn this stuff. Numbers don’t lie

  • @RiAirgead
    @RiAirgead Месяц назад

    What % of Canadian houses are like this? It's probably a ton.

  • @danielterrill6927
    @danielterrill6927 Месяц назад

    CAP at 4% isn't worth the trouble

    • @southerntransplant2724
      @southerntransplant2724 Месяц назад

      Lower is better

    • @mrb9642
      @mrb9642 Месяц назад

      Lower is better if you are a seller, but as an investor higher CAP is what you want.

  • @ReynaDPerez
    @ReynaDPerez Месяц назад

    Bet the investors are getting excited now 😅

  • @johntrevett2944
    @johntrevett2944 Месяц назад

    This isn't accurate for single family homes.

  • @taylorvanallen4807
    @taylorvanallen4807 Месяц назад +1

    But what’s with the picture of Michael burry ?! lol

  • @WealthyChronicle
    @WealthyChronicle Месяц назад

    So basically, 2025 is going to be a yard sale for real estate. Who's ready to buy distressed properties on a budget? 🏠💰

  • @sehrharoonmd8291
    @sehrharoonmd8291 Месяц назад

    Found a distressed new build sfh for 1M$ off. Price now 2.1M

  • @andrewvellos9735
    @andrewvellos9735 Месяц назад

    Pop

  • @aboulding
    @aboulding Месяц назад

    Didn't this guy put up a video 4 years ago about the risks of adjustable rates? No? Oh okay.

  • @perralipezir
    @perralipezir Месяц назад +1

    While the video was educational it barely relates back to the emotional clikcbait title and thumbnail. As a viewer I feel like someone cried wolf for clicks. I appreciate quality math but not packaged like this. Won't click on your any other video because this felt like a deceitful letdown.

  • @MA-id1hr
    @MA-id1hr Месяц назад +1

    You guys and these false video titles.
    I won't click in any crap like this anymore.
    This is getting old, and NOTHING happens.
    F to the U!
    Big time!!! 😂