You should distinguish between federal elections and state government elections. When the solid Democratic south became the Solid Republican south in the 1970's and 1980's, this was first at the federal level. The state offices were still dominated by Democrats. The state offices are solidly republican only since the 2000's. Georgia has certainly become a swing state at the federal level. Democrats have won 4 independent federal elections in a row in Georgia. At the state level is still likely, if not solidly Republican. However, with the nationalisation of local elections the federal swing might be a predictor of a local swing as well. We will have to see in four years if republicans cannot rely on the incumbency advantage.
@@johntremmel3949 That was one important factor in the political transformation of the south. But there have been multiple events causing it. Already in 1948 several southern states defected to the Thurmond ticket. In 1956, there was the southern manifesto. In 1960, multiple southern states have swung or were close. In 1960 Nixon won Virginia, Florida and Tennessee. Alabama and Mississippi defected to Byrd. Texas, North Carolina and South Carolina were within 5%. Then 1964 there was the civil right act and in 1968 George Wallace spoiled the election for the democrats. In 1968 the majority of congresmen from the south was still Democratic. The 1976 election however followed the historical patterns. Reagan 1980 was the finalisation of the southen swing to the republicans. Not only at the presidential level, but also in the house and senate. So there is not one event that caused the south to become republican. Most of the replacement of elected officials took place in the 1970's and 1980's.
@Moon Shine we were actually referring to the shift from Dixie democrats to republican him implying and correctly that it was decades in the making probably starting with Roosevelt’s new deal
@@myg14570 Yes. The urbanization and diverse demographic shift of the Greater Atlanta Metropolitan Area which comprises 57.3% or nearly 60% of the state's total population went from voting 55.2% to Bush in 2004 to 57% to Biden in 2020. Part of Kemp's win in 2022 was winning 5 rural counties in Eastern and South Western Georgia that Warnock won in 2022 in the December runoff. You can apply the same reasons for Virginia going from a safe GOP state to a Lean Dem state in the past few years since Obama's win in 2008. Urbanization of the Northern Virginia Area (NOVA), Richmond, Independent Cities, and the Hampton Roads by the Chesapeake Bay has made Virginia a reliable swing-blue state. The same goes for Texas where Trump won by single digits by 5.58% thanks to Biden's performance in the suburban and metropolitan areas in Greater Houston, Greater San Antonio, Dallas-Forth Worth Metroplex, and Greater Austin although that was offset by Trump's performance in the Rio Grande Valley region and South Texas which narrowed Biden's lead from Clinton's lead back in 2016 due to Trump flipping historically Democrat districts for the first time in 50-100 years by single digits. Overall, we might be seeing a realignment of urban and suburban areas towards the Democratic Party and with some Rural areas being traditionally Democratic in certain states being more competitive towards the Democrats and becoming swing counties or realigning towards the Republican Party. We might see this play out in 2024 with such a scenario like this depending on the national environment, state party politics, and both parties' candidate quality which could make a Southern state like Georgia and/or Texas become swing states in the coming years.
@@rickardkaufman3988I would have said the Rust Belt was trending more Republican, then I saw the Midterm performance of Republicans In those states and It was abysmal.
@@Jacaerys1 For real. Michigan and Pennsylvania in 2016 was more of a fluke as Democrats continued trends going into 2022 and under Gretchen Whitmer in Michigan, she helped gain a Democratic Trifecta for the first time since the 1980s and Democrats continued make gains in Pennsylvania such as a flipping a Senate seat for the first time in 60 years by a moderate- progressive from Pittsburgh and also thanks to Josh Shapiro working to amplify his extremist GOP opponent's views towards Trump voters who think the 2020 election was legitimate and Biden won and Independents. Some Rust Belt states like Ohio and Wisconsin have been trending rightward although Wisconsin has still continued to be more of a swing state in 2022. It all comes down in 2024 whether Democrats can continue to keep Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania and flip Ohio or outperform there at least. It all comes down to the national environment, Biden's approval ratings, and the GOP presidential nominee as it will be really tough with a candidate like Ron Desantis.
Honestly I think GA maybe more even. Especially with the shifts in the Atlanta suburbs with demographics Georgia may turn into more like Virginia in a few election cycles. And maybe become a blue leaning swing state. We will see. Even tho the suburban revolt maybe temporary (we will see when trumps finally gone from politics at all) republicans have a demographic problem.
I would have agreed in 2016. However, at this point Georgia is pretty much right down the middle and Wisconsin is more like a tilt red battleground. I think Wisconsin will become a red state within the next 10 years, and Georgia will become a blue state within the next 10 years.
Georgia is a Battleground state that is shifting to the left. It is one of the most crucial swing states right now and will likely be a lean blue state in about 10 years
@@krishnaobrien3394 I was about to say the same. Georgia is a center right jurisdiction at heart that's historically been run by a Reaganite GOP and a Center-Center Left Democratic party filled with Roy Cooper (North Carolina's governor) and Warnock types.
Georgia is definitely a swing state. The Atlanta suburbs are far more diverse and less white than a decade ago. Much higher percentages of Blacks, Hispanics, and Asians (voting groups that tend to vote democratic) and smaller percentages of Whites (a majority republican voting bloc). We are also seeing more college educated voters and less religious voters, blocs that also favor democrats. And the Atlanta metro area is rapidly growing in population, especially the suburbs, which were key to Biden success in 2020 for president, Ossoff and Warnock in 2021 for the senate runoffs (and Warnock again in 2022), and Democrats retaking the house in a blue wave in 2018 and keeping their majority in 2020. What I find interesting is even though Abrams lost the 2022 governor race by 8 points (same as Obama in 2012 for president) she overwhelmingly outran him in the Atlanta Metro Area but greatly underperformed him in the rural parts of the state. So two things you see: 1. The urban-rural divide is growing. 2. The suburbs are continuing to be turned off my extremely conservative republicans whom are increasingly becoming an electoral battleground. And while Abrams did worse across the state than she did four years ago (although in the southern Atlanta suburbs she did better which is interesting) adjusting for the fact that 2018 was a D+7% election and 2022 was R+2%. The Atlanta Metro area still continued to get bluer in a trend. While yes Warnock was the only statewide democrat to win this year in GA, and yes every other GOP candidate won by 4-11 points, because the of the trends in the Atlanta suburbs, in a few election cycles, Georgia could be more reliably blue. Even if Trump is long gone and more moderate GOP candidates win, republicans have a demographic problem. They sort have fixed it with Hispanics (though not much success outside of Florida and Texas) but republicans have lots of work to do with Blacks and the AAPI community. As well as with young and educated voters who are very liberal. And the reasons for Georgia going blue is lots of the same reasons why Arizona as well. The 2018 and 2020 elections weren’t just good elections for democrats, they were the start of long term trends, and 2022 has reaffirmed that.
It's one that will require a lot of attention for sure, but I think we'll already be able to make good predictions once we know who the nominees are, particularly the Republican nominee. If we have another Biden vs. Trump match-up, I think Biden will absolutely be favored to win, whereas if we have a Biden vs. DeSantis match-up, I think DeSantis will be favored to win.
@@night6724 That's why Walker's son came out and said he was a horrible father, right? Also, Warnock doesn't have illegitimate children and he never paid for someone's abortion.
It's only a battleground if the GOP candidate is Trump-like and the Dem is a standard one. If there's a more traditional Republican and/or a Bernie/AOC type involved then I'd give the edge to the GOP.
Bernie would have a way better shot than AOC or even Biden tbh, plenty of Trump's supporters like Trump for the same reasons Bernie voters like Bernie. They think he's an honest populist champion of the working class. Shame that right-wing populism is an oxymoron, though.
Biden is the perfect candidate for moderate suburban voters who have felt increasingly alienated from the Republican party. Trump was the perfect candidate for racists and infrequent rural voters and disgruntled working class ex-Democrats.
So it votes for Biden in 2020 mainly due to covid and fraud, and then votes for a radical leftist because they don’t like Walker who ran a generic R campaign, means they’ll vote against trump? Walker was not a Trumpist candidate he was a milk toast republican. Also considering Warnock raised 150 million dollars vs Walkers’s 20 million only to go to a run off shows Georgia isn’t as blue as people think
Not really. It shows that the political system the US has makes it possible for an inept extreme candidate still to have a chance to win a seat in the senate. Luckily he lost, but by what margin? Something to be relieved about, but not something to be happy about. There is way too much optimism after the last election on too many media outlets. 'We' have to keep working and 'fighting' for the survival of democracy.
It isn’t surprising that a lot of Republicans were elected statewide during the midterms. Georgia has only been a swing state for 2 election cycles and is coming off of more than 2 decades of one party rule. Republicans have the advantage of incumbency in most instances.
It's a red state that's not going to suffer ridiculously bad candidates. Any competent Republican is going to be favored by 5 or more percent in a statewide election.
If they aren't incumbents, Im going with a pretty hard no. If those competent republicans are incumbents in a republican leaning electorate, yes. But going further, 2026 almost all incumbents are up with the exception of Lt. Governor. Depending on if Abrams runs again(she shouldn't) and depending on the national environment in 2026, the statewide races will be very competitive. And the senate race will also be very competitive. And then when you take into consideration the rapid leftward shift of the Atlanta suburbs that are likely to continue, I don't think any republican running in 2026 for a statewide race will win by 5 points or more, and I think Ossoff has a good chance of holding his seat.
It’s a battleground when Trumpian candidates are running. And even then it is close. If more conventional candidates like Kemp run, Dems have a shot but they will likely fall short. Bus yes, it is a battleground. In 2024 the landscape will be different again.
Agreed, but Republicans won 7 races in Georgia while Dems won only 1 and that is the Senate race. Incumbent Senators have higher chances in winning reelection. Example: Amy Klobuchar won 60% of the popular vote while 8% of Trump supporters voted for her.
Georgia is going the way of Virginia. Southern conservative state that slowly becomes more blue as a major metropolitan area attracts a more liberal and diverse crowd. Virginia voted for Bush twice but went blue in 2008 and will now never come back. In Virginia, it was the rapid expansion of the DC suburbs and Richmond. In George, it’s the rapid growth of Atlanta but more specifically, it’s African Americans and immigrants moving to Atlanta who tend to be much more dem leaning. George still leans red, but it’s probably going to end up a blue state in the end, since the ultra conservative and highly religious rural and exurban areas have basically maxed out their voting potential.
@Moon Shine I would argue Arizona is a lean R and/or swing state as on the federal and statewide election, it all comes down to Maricopa County which contains 62% of the state's population. I mean, between 2008 and 2020, Dems continued trends just like in Georgia as the Urbanization and Diversification of Metro and Suburban Phoenix have made Maricopa County a more swing county causing Trump to win Arizona in 2016 by 5.13% to Biden flipping the state by 0.3% in 2020 by winning Maricopa County which Trump narrowly won in 2016. If the GOP can win the county or at least outperform there, they could win a statewide election. It all comes down to candidate quality and popularity within the state if they can court the growing Hispanic population who tend to be swing voters but mostly Dem-leaning in the South West United States.
In reality Georgia is just about as blue as Texas is. The only main difference is that Georgia has the most compitent state Democratic party in the nation.
Definitely not. If Greg Abbott was Georgia's governor, Stacey Abrams would have won. Texas isn't bluer than Georgia. Georgia voted for Joe Biden and Texas voted for Trump. However, both states keep getting more Democratic each year.
I think Texas will flip to blue after a few more election cycles, but Democrats still have a lot of work to make it happen. Georgia and Arizona are much more winnable states for Dems than Texas is right now.
Both Georgia and Texas are leaning more blue every election cycle. Difference is Texas has 3 times the population of Georgia and is more diverse than Georgia. That’s why the electorate in Georgia is changing faster than in Texas.
@@jakep9610 I still think Abott would’ve won but in a smaller margin compared to Kemp. Abrams is still too far left for Georgia independents and moderate Republicans.
It’s a battle ground state Thanks to black Americans (descendants of USA chattel slavery) the same can be said for Louisiana/Mississippi/South Carolina & soon Alabama due to the black American demographic in those state
That is not so likely. The urban areas in those states are not populous enough to balance out the rural areas. The next swing states in the south are probably Texas and North Carolina.
You should distinguish between federal elections and state government elections. When the solid Democratic south became the Solid Republican south in the 1970's and 1980's, this was first at the federal level. The state offices were still dominated by Democrats. The state offices are solidly republican only since the 2000's. Georgia has certainly become a swing state at the federal level. Democrats have won 4 independent federal elections in a row in Georgia. At the state level is still likely, if not solidly Republican. However, with the nationalisation of local elections the federal swing might be a predictor of a local swing as well. We will have to see in four years if republicans cannot rely on the incumbency advantage.
You mean the 1964 civil rights act signed by Lyndon Baines Johnson
@@johntremmel3949 That was one important factor in the political transformation of the south. But there have been multiple events causing it. Already in 1948 several southern states defected to the Thurmond ticket. In 1956, there was the southern manifesto. In 1960, multiple southern states have swung or were close. In 1960 Nixon won Virginia, Florida and Tennessee. Alabama and Mississippi defected to Byrd. Texas, North Carolina and South Carolina were within 5%. Then 1964 there was the civil right act and in 1968 George Wallace spoiled the election for the democrats. In 1968 the majority of congresmen from the south was still Democratic. The 1976 election however followed the historical patterns. Reagan 1980 was the finalisation of the southen swing to the republicans. Not only at the presidential level, but also in the house and senate. So there is not one event that caused the south to become republican. Most of the replacement of elected officials took place in the 1970's and 1980's.
@Moon Shine we were actually referring to the shift from Dixie democrats to republican him implying and correctly that it was decades in the making probably starting with Roosevelt’s new deal
Those elections were stolen
@@night6724 By whom?
Yes, it’s a battleground state. Wasn’t that the case for 2020?
The question was if it went consistent red to blue because of the senate and presidential elections.
@@myg14570 Yes. The urbanization and diverse demographic shift of the Greater Atlanta Metropolitan Area which comprises 57.3% or nearly 60% of the state's total population went from voting 55.2% to Bush in 2004 to 57% to Biden in 2020. Part of Kemp's win in 2022 was winning 5 rural counties in Eastern and South Western Georgia that Warnock won in 2022 in the December runoff.
You can apply the same reasons for Virginia going from a safe GOP state to a Lean Dem state in the past few years since Obama's win in 2008. Urbanization of the Northern Virginia Area (NOVA), Richmond, Independent Cities, and the Hampton Roads by the Chesapeake Bay has made Virginia a reliable swing-blue state. The same goes for Texas where Trump won by single digits by 5.58% thanks to Biden's performance in the suburban and metropolitan areas in Greater Houston, Greater San Antonio, Dallas-Forth Worth Metroplex, and Greater Austin although that was offset by Trump's performance in the Rio Grande Valley region and South Texas which narrowed Biden's lead from Clinton's lead back in 2016 due to Trump flipping historically Democrat districts for the first time in 50-100 years by single digits.
Overall, we might be seeing a realignment of urban and suburban areas towards the Democratic Party and with some Rural areas being traditionally Democratic in certain states being more competitive towards the Democrats and becoming swing counties or realigning towards the Republican Party. We might see this play out in 2024 with such a scenario like this depending on the national environment, state party politics, and both parties' candidate quality which could make a Southern state like Georgia and/or Texas become swing states in the coming years.
@@rickardkaufman3988I would have said the Rust Belt was trending more Republican, then I saw the Midterm performance of Republicans In those states and It was abysmal.
@@Jacaerys1 For real. Michigan and Pennsylvania in 2016 was more of a fluke as Democrats continued trends going into 2022 and under Gretchen Whitmer in Michigan, she helped gain a Democratic Trifecta for the first time since the 1980s and Democrats continued make gains in Pennsylvania such as a flipping a Senate seat for the first time in 60 years by a moderate- progressive from Pittsburgh and also thanks to Josh Shapiro working to amplify his extremist GOP opponent's views towards Trump voters who think the 2020 election was legitimate and Biden won and Independents. Some Rust Belt states like Ohio and Wisconsin have been trending rightward although Wisconsin has still continued to be more of a swing state in 2022. It all comes down in 2024 whether Democrats can continue to keep Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania and flip Ohio or outperform there at least. It all comes down to the national environment, Biden's approval ratings, and the GOP presidential nominee as it will be really tough with a candidate like Ron Desantis.
2020 was fraud and covid. Without covid trump wins georgia easy but because the media blamed trump for everything with covid, he lost
It's a red leaning battleground state, like how Wisconsin is a blue leaning battleground.
I would argue that Wisconsin is a true battle ground state whereas PA and MI are blue leaning battleground states
Honestly I think GA maybe more even. Especially with the shifts in the Atlanta suburbs with demographics Georgia may turn into more like Virginia in a few election cycles. And maybe become a blue leaning swing state. We will see. Even tho the suburban revolt maybe temporary (we will see when trumps finally gone from politics at all) republicans have a demographic problem.
I would have agreed in 2016. However, at this point Georgia is pretty much right down the middle and Wisconsin is more like a tilt red battleground. I think Wisconsin will become a red state within the next 10 years, and Georgia will become a blue state within the next 10 years.
You have Wisconsin mixed up with Michigan
@@nepatrul6075 Michigan is the most left of the rust belt
Georgia is a Battleground state that is shifting to the left. It is one of the most crucial swing states right now and will likely be a lean blue state in about 10 years
Screw Atlanta
How do you figure? Where are the new Democratic votes going to come from?
@@Sewblon From the rapidly growing Atlanta suburbs.
Is it a battleground state? Empirically yes, because the parties are fighting over it. Does it still lean significantly red? Also yes.
I think moderately Republican is more accurate.
@@krishnaobrien3394 I was about to say the same. Georgia is a center right jurisdiction at heart that's historically been run by a Reaganite GOP and a Center-Center Left Democratic party filled with Roy Cooper (North Carolina's governor) and Warnock types.
Georgia is definitely a swing state. The Atlanta suburbs are far more diverse and less white than a decade ago. Much higher percentages of Blacks, Hispanics, and Asians (voting groups that tend to vote democratic) and smaller percentages of Whites (a majority republican voting bloc). We are also seeing more college educated voters and less religious voters, blocs that also favor democrats. And the Atlanta metro area is rapidly growing in population, especially the suburbs, which were key to Biden success in 2020 for president, Ossoff and Warnock in 2021 for the senate runoffs (and Warnock again in 2022), and Democrats retaking the house in a blue wave in 2018 and keeping their majority in 2020.
What I find interesting is even though Abrams lost the 2022 governor race by 8 points (same as Obama in 2012 for president) she overwhelmingly outran him in the Atlanta Metro Area but greatly underperformed him in the rural parts of the state. So two things you see: 1. The urban-rural divide is growing. 2. The suburbs are continuing to be turned off my extremely conservative republicans whom are increasingly becoming an electoral battleground. And while Abrams did worse across the state than she did four years ago (although in the southern Atlanta suburbs she did better which is interesting) adjusting for the fact that 2018 was a D+7% election and 2022 was R+2%. The Atlanta Metro area still continued to get bluer in a trend. While yes Warnock was the only statewide democrat to win this year in GA, and yes every other GOP candidate won by 4-11 points, because the of the trends in the Atlanta suburbs, in a few election cycles, Georgia could be more reliably blue. Even if Trump is long gone and more moderate GOP candidates win, republicans have a demographic problem. They sort have fixed it with Hispanics (though not much success outside of Florida and Texas) but republicans have lots of work to do with Blacks and the AAPI community. As well as with young and educated voters who are very liberal. And the reasons for Georgia going blue is lots of the same reasons why Arizona as well. The 2018 and 2020 elections weren’t just good elections for democrats, they were the start of long term trends, and 2022 has reaffirmed that.
Great analysis!
It's one that will require a lot of attention for sure, but I think we'll already be able to make good predictions once we know who the nominees are, particularly the Republican nominee. If we have another Biden vs. Trump match-up, I think Biden will absolutely be favored to win, whereas if we have a Biden vs. DeSantis match-up, I think DeSantis will be favored to win.
Usa is predicted to have a crisis by 2023 or 2024
Biden should not run for a second term, in my opinion.
@@jacquesvilleneuve8391 As a liberal Dem, agreed. Biden is too old, and we need new (preferably not corporate) blood.
@@nearn8517 Exactly.
@@nearn8517 Oh please all dems are corporate shills. AOC is a corporate shill so is bernie and all of them. They take big money and you know it
Nate Silver: 🤓
Freaking gottem
Boom. Roasted.
Yes
How do you not buy that?
These are the same geniuses who got 3 Senate races dead wrong. They actually thought Dr. Oz would win in Pennsylvania.
Hundreds of thousands split their tickets for Kemp and Warnock because they couldn't vote for Herschel Walker.
But we’re fine voting for a racist child abuser like Warnock?
@@night6724 *Walker?
@@williamg8269 no i mean warnock. Walker was never accused of abusing his son and unlike warnock he paid child support
@@night6724 That's why Walker's son came out and said he was a horrible father, right? Also, Warnock doesn't have illegitimate children and he never paid for someone's abortion.
@@williamg8269 you mean after he constantly praised him as a great father? You really believe that abortion BS?
It's only a battleground if the GOP candidate is Trump-like and the Dem is a standard one. If there's a more traditional Republican and/or a Bernie/AOC type involved then I'd give the edge to the GOP.
Bernie would have a way better shot than AOC or even Biden tbh, plenty of Trump's supporters like Trump for the same reasons Bernie voters like Bernie. They think he's an honest populist champion of the working class. Shame that right-wing populism is an oxymoron, though.
Biden is the perfect candidate for moderate suburban voters who have felt increasingly alienated from the Republican party. Trump was the perfect candidate for racists and infrequent rural voters and disgruntled working class ex-Democrats.
So it votes for Biden in 2020 mainly due to covid and fraud, and then votes for a radical leftist because they don’t like Walker who ran a generic R campaign, means they’ll vote against trump?
Walker was not a Trumpist candidate he was a milk toast republican. Also considering Warnock raised 150 million dollars vs Walkers’s 20 million only to go to a run off shows Georgia isn’t as blue as people think
Facts. Glad someone gets it
@@landonsolley487 Trump isn’t the problem for georgia although the atlanta suburbs moving left is an issue
Not really. It shows that the political system the US has makes it possible for an inept extreme candidate still to have a chance to win a seat in the senate. Luckily he lost, but by what margin? Something to be relieved about, but not something to be happy about. There is way too much optimism after the last election on too many media outlets. 'We' have to keep working and 'fighting' for the survival of democracy.
It isn’t surprising that a lot of Republicans were elected statewide during the midterms. Georgia has only been a swing state for 2 election cycles and is coming off of more than 2 decades of one party rule. Republicans have the advantage of incumbency in most instances.
It's a red state that's not going to suffer ridiculously bad candidates. Any competent Republican is going to be favored by 5 or more percent in a statewide election.
If they aren't incumbents, Im going with a pretty hard no. If those competent republicans are incumbents in a republican leaning electorate, yes. But going further, 2026 almost all incumbents are up with the exception of Lt. Governor. Depending on if Abrams runs again(she shouldn't) and depending on the national environment in 2026, the statewide races will be very competitive. And the senate race will also be very competitive. And then when you take into consideration the rapid leftward shift of the Atlanta suburbs that are likely to continue, I don't think any republican running in 2026 for a statewide race will win by 5 points or more, and I think Ossoff has a good chance of holding his seat.
It’s a battleground when Trumpian candidates are running. And even then it is close.
If more conventional candidates like Kemp run, Dems have a shot but they will likely fall short.
Bus yes, it is a battleground. In 2024 the landscape will be different again.
Agree.
its basically blue
Agreed, but Republicans won 7 races in Georgia while Dems won only 1 and that is the Senate race. Incumbent Senators have higher chances in winning reelection. Example: Amy Klobuchar won 60% of the popular vote while 8% of Trump supporters voted for her.
Do You Buy That...FiveThirtyEight can one day be right about their "predictions"?
Watch what happen when Brian Kemp terms run out
He’s just gonna run for senate.
@@damianchua4647 Ossoff will beat him.
Democrats could flip the governor mansion
@@jakep9610 hopefully
@@PremierCCGuyMMXVI that what I was trying to say
Georgia is going the way of Virginia. Southern conservative state that slowly becomes more blue as a major metropolitan area attracts a more liberal and diverse crowd. Virginia voted for Bush twice but went blue in 2008 and will now never come back.
In Virginia, it was the rapid expansion of the DC suburbs and Richmond. In George, it’s the rapid growth of Atlanta but more specifically, it’s African Americans and immigrants moving to Atlanta who tend to be much more dem leaning. George still leans red, but it’s probably going to end up a blue state in the end, since the ultra conservative and highly religious rural and exurban areas have basically maxed out their voting potential.
It's been a battleground state since 2020.
Keep doubling down 538, real good look for you.
Georgia is the Next Virginia, Ohio is the next Indiana, and Arizona is the next Colorado.
@Moon Shine we'll wait and see with Arizona
@Moon Shine I would argue Arizona is a lean R and/or swing state as on the federal and statewide election, it all comes down to Maricopa County which contains 62% of the state's population.
I mean, between 2008 and 2020, Dems continued trends just like in Georgia as the Urbanization and Diversification of Metro and Suburban Phoenix have made Maricopa County a more swing county causing Trump to win Arizona in 2016 by 5.13% to Biden flipping the state by 0.3% in 2020 by winning Maricopa County which Trump narrowly won in 2016. If the GOP can win the county or at least outperform there, they could win a statewide election.
It all comes down to candidate quality and popularity within the state if they can court the growing Hispanic population who tend to be swing voters but mostly Dem-leaning in the South West United States.
arizona isn’t the next colorado. Also Virginia will i guess be the next Georgia
@@moonshine8255 What do you mean less cuckoo? Neither Lake or Masters were crazy.
@@night6724 Virginia the next Georgia? No
In reality Georgia is just about as blue as Texas is. The only main difference is that Georgia has the most compitent state Democratic party in the nation.
Definitely not. If Greg Abbott was Georgia's governor, Stacey Abrams would have won. Texas isn't bluer than Georgia. Georgia voted for Joe Biden and Texas voted for Trump. However, both states keep getting more Democratic each year.
I think Texas will flip to blue after a few more election cycles, but Democrats still have a lot of work to make it happen. Georgia and Arizona are much more winnable states for Dems than Texas is right now.
@@jakep9610I would say Texas is more conservative than Georgia and moderate candidates do better in Georgia.
Both Georgia and Texas are leaning more blue every election cycle. Difference is Texas has 3 times the population of Georgia and is more diverse than Georgia. That’s why the electorate in Georgia is changing faster than in Texas.
@@jakep9610 I still think Abott would’ve won but in a smaller margin compared to Kemp. Abrams is still too far left for Georgia independents and moderate Republicans.
It’s a battle ground state Thanks to black Americans (descendants of USA chattel slavery) the same can be said for Louisiana/Mississippi/South Carolina & soon Alabama due to the black American demographic in those state
That is not so likely. The urban areas in those states are not populous enough to balance out the rural areas. The next swing states in the south are probably Texas and North Carolina.
Voted all the Democrats out
Batman
Well said
This is no different than Virginia.
Georgia is a lost cause.
yes, just because warnock won, he didnt win by much...