Don't Believe Their LIES! (UK House Price Crash)
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- Опубликовано: 15 окт 2024
- The UK Housing Market is BROKEN and the latest house price indexes are HIDING the true scale of the Housing Market CRASH that is currently happening across the UK!
Over the past year, we have seen raging inflation, soaring mortgage costs, a huge slowdown in mortgage approvals and widespread price cuts on Rightmove. However, despite these clear downward pressures on house prices, all major House Price Indexes are still reporting that UK house prices have either gone sideways or even up in 2023!
On the contrary, those on the frontline have seen some of the largest price drops and slowest markets since the global financial crisis. This clear disconnect between what is actually happening vs what the house price indexes are reporting is causing stasis in the housing market.
Sellers are reluctant to reduce their asking price when all major HPIs are suggesting the UK property market is doing just fine. Buyers are unable to pay these sky-high house prices as higher interest rates have pushed up mortgage costs.
This confusion has left both buyers and sellers asking will house prices go down in 2024? And if they do, just how much will house prices drop in 2024?
Post your UK house price forecasts in the comments!
• Follow me on Twitter for my latest thoughts: twitter.com/darrenthedegen
fear a housing crash due to people buying homes above asking prices with little equity. If prices drop, affordability and potential foreclosures may arise, worsened by future layoffs and rising living costs. I want to invest more than $300k, but I'm not sure on how to mitigate risk.
Consider reallocating from real estate to other reliable investments like stock, crypto or precious metals . Severe recessions offer market buying opportunities with caution, as volatility can yield short-term trading prospects. Not financial advice, but it may be wise to invest, as cash isn't ideal in this period.
Agreed, instead of panic or following a hearsay, I simply adopted the service of an advisor early 2020 amid covid-outbreak, and so far, I've attained my most measurable financial milestone of $900k after subsequent investments.
It's often true that people underestimate the importance of financial advisors until they feel the negative effects of emotional decision-making. I remember a few summers ago, after a tough divorce, when I needed a boost for my struggling business. I researched and found a licensed advisor who diligently helped grow my reserves despite inflation. Consequently, my reserves increased from $275k to around $750k.
nice! once you hit a big milestone, the next comes easier.. who is your advisor please, if you don't mind me asking?
Finding financial advisors like Margaret Johnson Arndt who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
I saw a news report on ITV last week reporting an increase.yet there are 13vproperties in my village for sale.all have been reduced. £50.000 off a 4 bed bungalow and £130.000 off a 6 bed detached period house.
Some areas going up, others down, rest no change
Interesting, you are the first presenter I have seen to acknowledge the renovation costs being a factor in the purchase, this is now a major costing because as you say, materials have hiked in price over the last few years. On top of this all people involved; trades/solicitors have upped their prices. Great videos.
the indices are fake. In one area of Surrey containing circa 70000 population, i have been using the Rightm move filter to see what is selling. Nothing has sold or is under offer in the last three months. I have the plug-in that shows price changes and there is a trickle of properties with 10 to 15% discounts but they are still not selling. As they used to say, ''Lies, damned lies and statistics.'
Needs AT LEAST 30% reduction.
Nothing sold?
Interesting to note the third bullet point (written in tiny letters) under the MASSIVE headline "HOUSE PRICE RECOVERY ETC“ is that it states, "house prices DOWN 2% compared with a year ago".
As an agent I have to concur with this guy, house prices are down (and we project that to continue into 24) esp for larger properties. We are seeing slight improvements for apartments (but only very slightly).
That’s the reality at the sharp end.
These indices clash with the RICS index and their report graphs. In RICS graphs everything is significantly down and their index is -64 at present. Read some of the RICS agents reports. Moist declaring the market is dire.
Also, newbuilds offer part exchange and packages, including mortgage payments and cash back up to about £40,000.
Rightmove are made to look like clowns, when on their very own web pages. half the houses are reduced and most about 5% and many on 10% and still require further drops.
Interest rates has killed affordability. If I take a 5 year fixed now I gotta pay £40k more than the seller. It’s impossible. It’s a certainty prices will go down much more than so far.
It's strange people believe their homes are worth a quarter of a million and they can say it with a straight face.
A "£250,000" home is ACTUALLY worth between 100K to 150K. Trouble is a generation of homeowners who TRULY BELIEVE their home is actually worth a quarter mil. 🤣🤣🤣 That's what a couple of decades of extremely low unsustainable interest does to the mentality of a generation of homeowners. Basically, EVERYONE has paid for their wealth and now they want to keep it.
Lol well the average price is over that so it is. 😂
@@SaintWill70 The more deluded sellers are the more the house prices will eventually crash, not just fall. Spot on.
@BKSW775 Exactly the attitude that WILL cause the crash. Point is, if someone BELIEVES someone will pay a certain price for it...not if they actually do. That's problem he is talking about in the video.
Mine is worth half a mill
There’s an awful lot of uninspiring properties coming onto the market for sure.
And that's exactly the issue with waiting for a crash and this negative rhetoric. It ignores the actual data. Only 30% of people own properties with a mortgage. Only a % of them might default. There is so much demand that the few good properties get snapped immediately even above asking prices. The market is only flooded with terrible, old and uninspiring properties that not many people are willing to buy any time soon, even if they drop 10%. I am not sure anymore that a real crash is coming. Maybe a slow decline over years, but with the slightest whiff of an economic recovery, everyone will just rush and go buy whatever is available.
I'm having the opposite problem I can't find a run down house that's worth flipping
@@jdt8601 have a look in Hertfordshire or other affluent areas around the London commuter belt. Areas where people have accumulated money since the pandemic, while waiting for a crash and where people have enough disposable income to absorb rate increases. You will see plenty of 500k+ 3bed houses that are in dire need for renovations that have been sitting there for months. Is it worth spending half a million for a derelict property though? Not sure anyone will buy it afterwards for 800k in a neighborhood where everything else costs 600k.
It’s landlords selling up as it’s no longer profitable. Worst time to be a renter for sure!
@@kobalos73 That's not quite correct 30% of homes are owner occupied with a mortgage or loan. Consider that 20% of homes are private rentals, I could not find a figure as to what percentage of private rental properties have mortgages on them but likely most of them; that is potentially 50% of the UK housing stock effected by the increase in rates.
showing just price change, but not showing the volume of exchange change over time is the misleading factor. houses may be selling high, but how many are actually selling at all
Been looking at houses in Lancashire at around £475k a few of them dropped to 450k still didn't sell then went off the market . Noticed new builds for same sort of house even nudged up a little in price but the spec inside changed a little. Eg used to have separate shower and bath in the main bathroom now travel to start in the bath to get a shower . So the spec on these new houses are getting worse.
I'm seeing plenty of property very reasonably priced that doesn't find buyers, especially property with 3+ bedrooms. I feel that a lot of people are downsizing which means 1-2 bedroom flats/houses might be going sideways or even increasing, but the larger properties they are having trouble shifting.
Looking at the latest auctions, there's certainly a major correction going on.
Not in the uk, the slow down in prices is because of mortgage rates, credit card interest is at 23% now on average !
I think it's way too optimistic to expect house prices to fall dramatically. They're already being severely devalued by inflation alone at present. If you work out the "profit" made on a house over the last 20 years adjusted for inflation, it's generally less than 5-6% of the value of the property and that's before you factor in maintenance costs of the property over that time. The actual profit made on property over the last 20 years pales into insignificance when compared with investments in stocks and shares for example.
I've been looking for a house, rural with about 1acre, £600K to £700K in the south west and the east over the last year. The prices have not fallen and people are not willing to reduce much and seem to be willing to wait for very near their asking price.
Egged on by estate agents.
Estate agents only get paid if a house sells. There is no incentive for them to avoid sales
I'm looking for investments in the SW and they're still very overpriced!
@@Leapops oh, is that how it works?
Most sellers will play the long game and only sell if they have to. Then most of the buyers are cash or buy to let which don't really care about prices and just want to get the ball rolling for a new rental.
I remember the last house prices crash in 2020/2021. It was huge drop🤣
Newspaper headlines 2020
House prices to drop by 14% next year
Predicted
Bank of England: Fall of 16%
Cebr: Fall of 13%
Savills: 10% drop
Liberum: Fall of 7% in real prices
Lloyds Banking Group: 5 to 10% fall
EY's Howard Archer: Fall of 5%
Knight Frank: Fall of 7%
JLL: 8% fall
Happened
Land Registry
January 2020 - £231,940
January 2021 - £249,690
January 2022 - £272,738
You remember it but do you understand it?
In the same report it says transaction volumes are holding up. I think there are 2 markets in play at the moment
Market 1. Good quality homes realistically priced. These are selling well and close to asking.
Market 2. A load of crud. Often vacant requiring modernisation but priced as if they are worth the same as well looked after properties. These are the houses stuck on right move for months.
I've dropped my price to 20% below the lowest valuation I was given by a selection of three estate agents & I have had 4 viewings & no offers in three months. IT IS NOT GREEDY SELLERS. THERE IS A BUYER'S STRIKE. Why this is could be anyone's guess. Perhaps buyers are waiting for prices to drop, perhaps the mortgage companies don't want to lend, perhaps it's the time of year.
You are right, the houses that are ‘done up’ sell. The ones that have pictures with mess all over the place are sitting on Right Move. Gina are the days when you can just put your house on the market without ’staging’ it. I don’t think it is just that buyer don’t want to do renovations, they want somewhere they can just move in. I think this is better, I don’t know when it became acceptable for properties to be advertised messy. I guess that was the market, but not no more. The area I am focused on is Sydenham south London and surroundings…
So in real terms, prices have reduced when you consider inflation.
Lol no ! Interest rates and fees are way up in real terms
There are 15% more agreed sales than a year ago and 5% more than in 2019 ( zoopla 28th November )
"The quicker average mortgage rates (for 5-year 75% LTV fixed-rates) move towards 4.5% or lower, the sooner we will see buyers return to the market" ( zoopla 28th September)
At this point 5-year 75% LTV
Halifax - 4.51% (7.1% APRC)
NatWest - 4.52% (6.9% APRC)
The East Midlands has definitely seen a significant fall, there are many more houses to choose from.
Great insight as ever. NW seasonal adjustment was 0.7% this month (Nov 23) whereas in Nov 22 it was 0.3%. This is prob due to massive 1.4% mom fall in Nov 22. bottom line had they used Nov22 SA factor this would have been 0.2 mom fall.
I think people are waiting until the spring. They see rates trickling down and think why jump now.
Assuming houses sold for the asking price, is the reason Rightmove and Nationwide have a £100k difference because the average equity on sale is £100k?
I’m seeing an increase in reductions in the North Manchester area. There’s definitely not been an increase in prices.
We're in North Manchester and I haven't seen this particularly yet. I'd like it to be true because we want to upsize without moving far. But just not seeing it right now. In fact North Manchester seems overpriced these days based on relative value to e.g. Urmston or Didsbury
I think the biggest problem that’s overlooked is the fact that around 30 percent of homeowners own their homes so they can be greedy and if they don’t get the price they want they won’t sell.
Not making up to a million before retirement is unfulfilled retirement.!! I'm 54 and my wife is 50 we are both retired with over $7 million in net worth and no debts. Currently living smart and frugal with our money. No longer blaming FED for our misfortunes. Saving and investing lifestyle in the crypto and forex market made it possible for us this early. even now, we earn weekly
We have just had to walk away from a house that needed significant renovation because the price of building work has gone up from £1,000/m^2 to to £2,500/m^2. This is from a friend who was a property developer. So doing a garage conversation for example is now more than double the cost a couple of years ago (£15 is now £30k plus). This is because of the insulation regs that have come in. Hence, the cheaper properties aren't going because it's no longer financially viable to do building work for things like a garage conversation or kitchen extension. This info has forced us to change our strategy of what kind of property we are now looking for.
Surely a great opportunity for anyone capable of DIY?
Isnt a /basicically no/ growth year, in real terms, a reduction in prices? If inflation goes up, but house prices do not, thats a reduction isnt it?
Only if wages keep up with inflation, and they haven't by a factor of about 0.5.
@@nicky_nike. If wages go up and house prices are flat then, all other things equal, house prices have reduced in price. You are mixing up nominal and real prices again!
@@Leapops If wages increase less than inflation, yes, the house price in effect reduces, but not by inflation. The price reduces by inflation if wages keep up with inflation. People are saying house value reduces with inflation. Not true unless wages/inflation match.
You don't need official HPIs. In my area [In Cumbria] 70%+ of house prices are reductions v 30% new property notifications that come into my inbox via Zoopla etc.. Furthermore most new properties reduce their prices within the first month of advertising. If young people could take their faces out of their phones for 5 minutes they might find out what's going on in the real world.
I think that the current generation of house owners simply do not believe their "£250,000" home is only ACTUALLY worth £150,000. wait too long and it may only be worth £100,000!!
What a L.O.B
Sellers ain't going to knock 20% off, or be the first one to move. The only people placing heavy discounts are those due mortgage renewal or those desperate to move for other factors.
We will see how the prices go in Jan-March 24. That will be the true testament but I cannot envisage a 20% drop. There are still lots of people looking to purchase houses. The second there is a big enough drop to offset mortgage rates, everyone who has been waiting will be trying to buy again, which will drive prices back up!
@@davewright9312all I can say to that is…….UTMO! 🦉💙🦉
The point is market equilibrium. @@JSMarsden That's not the point. The point is in order to reach market equilibrium sellers need to discount 30% or more ...otherwise they will lose WAAAY more due to the value of their houses being artificially increased by an unsustainable low interest rate over the past 2 decades. However, as we have seen, MANY TIMES before...this is not how people react...you are correct. They try to 'weather the storm' (by only knocking small % off or holding tight) but it rarely pays dividends...then the whole thing heads into an EVEN DEEPER recession because people are not selling making their houses worth less at a much faster rate.
@@davewright9312 Yup, absolutely a man without an argument...therefore...you must be right.
I think the point about modern good condition houses is very valid, and becoming more valid with time. Peoples expectations are much higher now than in the past, but people also are less able and motivated to do the work themselves. Good reliable trades people are also becoming more difficult to get hold of
Prices are rising but most houses are not selling. So there is a lot of competition for property in the best condition and location. These are rising in price. The index does not take account of houses that remain unsold
The fact is that with increased labour, material and land costs a vast proportion of our housing stock in the North could not be built for what it sells for unless the land owners and trades are willing to take a cut. With new building regs adding considerably to the build cost the only way is up.
Alot of people don't on this type of channel don't want to hear this but it's a fact......great point. I know this as I've built several properties and know the associated cost involved.
Build cost are not going down.
You realise prices when adjusted for inflation have tanked this year right ?
If you wait for a them to come down in (£) terms, you could be a bit disappointed
The Nationwide table also shows that from the Aug '22 peak to Aug '23, prices fell by 5.3%
Some sellers are stubborn and they are just keeping properties on rightmove until someone comes forward woth stupidly high price offer to them
As a rule of thumb in the South house prices are overvalued by 25-30%. Interest rates will not drop by any significant degree over the next 3 years so prices will reduce slowly over the next 12-18 months as people accept the situation.
Whose thumb?
And is that a reduction in real or nominal terms? With inflation high the two measurements are very different - in real terms house prices have already significantly fallen.
You must check these property portals sales, on the Land Registry 8-12 months later ..estate agents lie about marking SSTC just to look good . But but really taking it off because of other reasons than being actually sold.
In addition to the concerns here, Other issues are:
A future Labour government putting up all taxes on homes & taxes in general. Land value tax remains on the table.
Where to buy. London is an increasingly unattractive place to live & still way too expensive.
With regard to renovation costs, I have the surveyor make a list of repairs that need doing, their costs & timelines. Then I negotiate on price with the vendor with a reduction on these costs.
What happens when morgage rates drop below 4%
This video doesn't make sense, I'm sorry. You are looking at the data from 4 different sources and all of them are saying that house prices went up the past month. Still, you argue that it can't be the case: for sure they're lying to you because you're searching your local area and you see the prices went a bit down. This is called confirmation bias: desperately looking for data that support your thesis (which is, the housing market is crashing) and ignoring the reports published by reputable agencies. These reports are global, your area may well go in the completely opposite direction, that's the point. You're also saying that Nationwide's seasonal adjustment is biased, when they are pretty transparent in their methodology; from a Nationwide document I found online:
"House prices are slightly seasonal - that is, prices are higher at certain times of the year irrespective of the overall trend. [...] The effect on prices over the year is of the order of +/- 1.0%"
1% is statistically irrelevant, even more if you're trying to look for a 30% crash as you stated in other videos.
The wage data from the ONS simply does not support these prices. Cognitive dissonance is very powerful and people have believed they are house rich for a very long time.
No noticeable house price reductions in Southampton? London 2 bed flats still at £400k? Maybe in Medway where you live there are reductions but barely noticeable where I have been looking.
UK housing market is just a joke.. a lot of derelict, falling apart and non up-to-date houses that should be worth 50-100k max are selling for x3/x4 time more. Absolutely non-sense!
Luckily for homeowners, the UK is an island.. this inevitably drives prices up.
Oh la la lol
Hi Darren. I agree with your summary that house prices are broken.
But i disagree with your statement: "Buyers cant suddenly just pull money out of thin air"...
Because some buyers can...
If that were so, save for a minority, transaction volumes would be higher.
@@Afrinaturality according to Zoopla transaction volumes are higher than 2019. Must admit I was surprised that was the case.
@@Leapops Are you referring to sales agreed in H2 2023? Weren't these the last of the sales that were unaffected or relatively less affected by the Liz Truss budget which sparked the interest rate rises?
It's not been a proper market for many years, but now interest rates have spiked up it's easier to see how manipulated it is, I think we are at the point it's mathmatically impossible for a sizeable majority of buyers to make the purchase, so the market is very slow, unless they come out with a lifetime mortgage you pass onto your offspring then the majority of sellers have no one to sell to, so i guess they will be holding for many years.
I think something u and other didnt calculate is the influence of foreign investors… especially from middle east… i tried to buy few propertied by auctions.. i was always overpriced by international bidders … the combination of relatively cheap UK properties compared to US, Canada and Australia, very liberal markets that everyone can bit, weak pound, and very easy to access online bit from any mobile around the world make it very lucrative to overseas investors interfere… hand free investors run their portfolios by management companies and average 10% ROI on cash buy to let… I know a teenager Saudi guy had bought 10 properties last 2 months and it seems growing trend… they r not bother by high inflation or cost of living as far as their banks give them 2% interest… last yr, the gulf investors bought 1 million property in Turkey… as Turkish Lira continue drop significantly, it doesnt make sense buy there anymore… it sound the UK market is their new playground…
I've been reading the foreign market has greatly reduced.
The monied guys are waiting for the fall .... as the massively indebted fall into the abyss
Enjoyed the video and interesting thoughts and insights.
Only point I would raise, I have seen same with other youtubers. the seasonal adjustment is no sinister/quirky adjustment, its a long established trend that is commonly applied, and will equally reduce figures in Spring 2024, just think thats a 'red herring'
Do you think that real house prices are currently below 2020 property prices?
No
As someone who worked as a surveyor since the early 1980's I see the dynamics of this decline as more like the early 90's where interest rate hikes resulted in lost jobs and unaffordable mortgage debt levels followed by repossessions. One difference is currency devaluation occurring right now which heaps on the pressure of debt burden on mortgagees. Anyone who bought in the last 4 years with a large mortgage is going to be put under affordability pressure in the next couple of years.
The big difference from the 90s is the labour market. There are almost a million vacancies even with migration at the levels we have recently seen. The market will only crash if mortgage holders in large numbers are made unemployed which is not happening yet. Also the 90s crash was additionally fuelled by the boom caused by the ending of double mortgage relief, mortgage indemnity insurance and self certification (aka lying!) of earnings.
@@Leapops The labour market is unsustainable as it has been distorted by 12 years of low borrowing costs, support of zombie companies. Disposable income will reduce substantially and lead to job losses in affected businesses. Austerity is the word for it whatever the current job vacancies appear to be much of it is founded on froth and artificial stimulus.
I think your analyses are spot on: the reality is that, if you are struggling, you would not be buying now. The sales that close are for houses that are ready to move in, to people who have no difficulty paying. Doer-uppers will go nowhere now because of the uncertainly over the costs of doing up. You would have to be mad to sign a mortgage at today's uncertain rates unless at 90% loan-to-book, and probably not even then, as you will likely end up with negative equity. After the economy recovers (some hopes), there will be a re-run of the "load-a-money" scramble for doer-uppers, with electricians, plumbers and plasterers hitting the big time. (Not while the present shower are in power).
Number of mortgage approvals is 30% lower than pre-pandemic. A smaller data set will inevitably result in higher averages in this market where high value properties would comprise a larger part of the data.
I have a friend you said in 2008 he is going to wait for the crash before buying.....hes paid rent for all those years, I bought a house and its paid for in the same time.....Keep waiting all you want there will not be a crash.
I also commented on Charlie's channel that everyone tries to conveniently forget that Labour is coming to power with an absolute majority just in a couple of months. I'm an IT contractor and a high earner and in the past would have been the last person to wish Labour. But I know that they will absolutely decimate the BTL and money-making opportunities in the housing market. That's something very welcome and will free an additional huge amount of properties to the market. They said many times that house prices will need to come down and be equal to people's incomes.
I speak often with BTLs and I know from my experience that they are terrified by the mere thought of Labour in power. These people had a very good time for more than a decade. Many earned profits that they could never hope to earn through their jobs. Now it's all coming to an end...
thing is all the BTL people will sell up and want their investment back and most will be happy to sit on that for months, and with people being so in need of houses most will be bought up quickly by high earners then we have less rental properties and less houses for sale, the ones for sale will increase due to demand and itll stay exactly the same a sit is now. the only fix is less people and no idont mean immigrants just over all, were a small island we cant jsut make every square inch a house because yet another person wants a home.
A few of your echo chamber BTL mates crapping themselves is not data. From a landlord perspective the rental market, whilst totally dysfunctional, is in rude health. What exactly do you think Labour will do to change that dynamic?
Under Starmer, nothing will change.
@@Leapops They will tax their assess off. It's an easy win to release a huge number of properties on the market and further depress the prices. I'm sure they'll go for that option. It seems thousands of BTLs think the same way and are already exiting, but maybe you have some information that nobody does😆
The tax regime has already worsened significantly for btl under the tories. For example you can no longer offset mortgage costs from the rental income which is huge for those with mortgages. Except for increasing CGT (which is already a higher percentage for residential property) there is not actually much scope for labour to do anything material.
The last think a labour government wants is to have to manage a property crash shortly after taking office. The tories would have a field day (or make that years) saying they were not fit to run the economy. So I do not believe they will deliberately try to engineer one. It may be an easy win from your perspective but it is not from theirs.
Labour have a huge problem because if they do as you say then they will have an army of renters baying for their blood as the current dysfunctional rental market will fall further into chaos. Adding that to pissing off owner occupiers I suspect they will conclude tinkering around the edges (eg S21 reform) is the least bad option.
Not sure if the crash is happening cannot see it yet
Only thing holding the real fall of prices is work... redundancies and job losses are not occurring en masse... thus people are managing to hold their heads above water with significant debt all around them. If job losses occur ... 1990 all over again.. and the sharks are ready to wade in
Today, Halifax Index November 2023
UK house prices rise for the second month in a row
Average house prices rose by +0.5% in November, following a rise of +1.2% in October
Property prices dropped by -1.0% on an annual basis (vs -3.1% last month)
Good video as always .. Have a go at making your own tracker !
Average prices are clearly lower in November than in October (258k vs 259k), as shown in the headline, but they tell you with a straight face that house prices rose. Errr, wtf?
It is clearly stated that the +0.2% increase in November is seasonally adjusted while the absolute price isn't. The season adjustment can affect the price in the measure of +/- 1.0%. A movement of +0.2% is anyway insignificant and might as well be a blip.
Doesn't make any sense for people who have mortgages to try to sell at any less than 30% reduction otherwise they just lose money overall, possibly within months!! Crazy SELLER STANDOFF - benefits no-one - not even themselves!!!
MHWC has done a lot of research into this. His channel's well worth a sub.
Need to build more - stop relying on private sector and loosen planning laws
True in Englan peoples can't pay Rent increased too much because of Economy gone too down poverty Inreased peopls spent 30 Pound one Month
When you consider inflation, house prices are falling. IMO the lack of increase in prices over a prolonged period is more likely to act as a correction than any sharp decline. A few years of stagnation and perhaps small falls seems probable. Interest rates are likely to decline, wages are increasing (long overdue) and there will likely be a change of Government within a year. Confidence in the future may improve?
From a practical perspective, I think that much of the existing, older housing stock is overpriced. It requires higher maintenance costs, elements need to be upgraded, and they are often poorly insulated. But prices are kept high due to various supply problems. Buy to let, second homes, Airbnb etc are significant factors in many areas.
A new house costs a certain amount to build. A developer has to buy the land, obtain statutory permissions, pay for materials, labour and service connections. They also have legal fees and financing and selling costs. Most of these costs are steadily increasing. If the cost of building exceeds the selling price, then building quickly declines and in the longer run this has a negative impact on supply.
We live in a country where too much of our wealth is tied up in property and too little in business. Will that ever change?
Alan ...you failed to mention the absolutely terrible build quality of new houses
Have you forgot to consider inflation? Adjust today’s house prices by inflation. That’s the only way you’ll see them drop.
Wait till july 2024 to let everything settled down before going to make offer unless you are getting very good price
At some point, this guy is gonna have to sit his missus down and explain that he's made a massive mistake. He's called it wrong from the start and every week now he's trying to justify his wrong decision to play the market and rent. Decent housing is in scarce supply in this country, inflation is lowering quickly, banks are reducing interest rates, wages are rising and the population is increasing like never before. Time to stop squirming and hold your hands up or you'll make your losses worse with your defiance.
Oh look some wag with 5 kids and a range rover lecturing. 😂
Very true dinner lady...the ONS and the two biggest lenders are not wrong ..but this guy and his followers live in hope that there will be some major crash..they will get cramp in their fingers soon for keeping them crossed for so long 😂
You keep reposting the same crap over and over again...Don't make yourself look like a total fool, you better sit your man down (if you have one) and explain you're totally clueless and need help understanding stuff...
@@SycAamore the words pot and kettle come to mind.
The correction of prices is for properties over 500k...this is where borrowing becomes exponentially more expensive. For houses under 500k there are far more buyers who will complete for the nicer properties so for most it will be okay. However if you own a property over 1 million then why would you take a 10-15% hit just to sell ...
I don’t understand your insistence on talking about greedy people, it’s basic market pressures, if somebody needs to sell the. They will drop to a price that gets the sale, if they don’t they will hold at the the price. Clearly a number of people are in the second bracket. It’s not greed they probably need to realise a certain value to make it worth it.
House prices increasing. Rents going up. epic how many missed the boat calling bottom two months ago.
Interest rates will start plummeting early next year as they always do prior to general elections.
BOOM is coming 10-15% up next year once Labour rolls out its mortgage guarantee program to first time buyers 🎉🎉
A fool and his money.
There's not going to be any panic selling because too many people just don't need to sell
Yep, agree entirely
There are plenty of tenants to rent to if needs be.
@@saelaird Why are hoards of landlords selling then?
How the hell do you know?
You realise interest rates aren’t the only factor that made house prices rise? And that inflation pushes house price up over time as well?
This guy is desperate for house prices to “crash” 🤬
Do you mean house prices are broken because they are too high? Because the narrative on here has been that they were crashing through the floor.
Sellers won't sell unless they have to, and they don't have to because there's an army of tenants available.
Then why the 40% + of landlords selling/sold?
@@nicky_nikeCombination of RRB and tax issues...in my area prices dropped about 1.5 to 2 per cent over the last year ..so negligible I will have one to sell in a few months if I don't realise the price I want I'll just keep it empty for a while ...don't need to sell..
@@nicky_nike where do you get that number from? There will be a riot amongst renters if it were true.
This seems similar to the last recession in 2007/2008!!!
Im thinking to take 1st mortgage in my life... but confused if i should do or wait...
You’ll be waiting forever. Buy what you can afford and enjoy your home. I heard the same narrative when I left university in 1995. House prices never came back down and thankfully I didn’t listen to the doom and gloom.
As a mortgage advisor, I advice is do not wait. Ever.
There is a saying that is "There was not better time to purchase a property than yesterday".
You would be waiting forever for "the right time".
Thanks for your opinion, guys
If you can keep working for a UK company while moving abroad I would suggest to consider doing so. There are so many wonderful countries where you can buy a house for literally nothing.
@91adigio agree on that, but also I have to take into consideration my children's and what countries can give them good education if I decide to buy a house and move out from UK...
I see no signs of a crash at all. A moderate market correction yes. Too much click bait on RUclips.
Are you ever going to admit that you was wrong or?
Thanks ill follow the professionals not you tube experts
This guy has been talking about housing market crash for whole one year but I still can’t see any crash. Let’s see when he is going to stop
Honest money lol - only got one tune pessimism
I think everyone is forgetting one thing. Housing is the ultimate commodity. It’s bricks wood, tiles. Copper wire, and labour. So it’s directly affected by inflation for both the cost to build new and the value of existing homes. So if as I believe inflation for 2022 and 2023 were 10% per annum. If the price of a house didn’t change from the end of 2021 to end of 2023 the real value of the property would have declined 20% unless you can afford to buy a new home befor you sell your existing selling your home “affordably” you risk being priced out of buying your next home. It screwed up for sure but logic does apply if you consider the truth of mathematics and economics.
You are arguing yourself into oblivion. Asking prices are always way too high. Mortgage valuations are always slightly too high (many valuations come in under the agreed price and transactions are either adjusted or buyer cough up more deposit). You cannot argue with ONS / land registry as they are absolute de facto completed transactions without bias, but they are delayed by around 6 months. Unregistered land transactions can take up to 2 years to show on land registry.
He took 4 different reports published by 4 different agencies all pointing to a very slight price increase. He then argued that all of them are lying because he searched his own local area and prices appear to have dropped a bit. Talking about confirmation bias.
That will be the SUPPLY 'N' DEMAND thing, then?
BBC news , house prices rise... again
The real data doesnt backup your theory Sorry you are simply wrong
Don't believe the guff 😂
I think that you’re viewing everything through southern eyes and talking things down isn’t helping anyone. What you think you’re seeing down south just isn’t the case further north. I’m not quite sure what your agenda is. What are the trying to achieve? What is your aim in producing these videos?
To report on the crash that he does very well, and RUclips pays for videos.
He was predicting 35% price drop, it did not happen, now he says data is wrong 😂😂😂 He won't admit he wss all this time wrong. He prefers to say all the indexes are wrong 😂😂😂. He is an example of what NOT to do hahahah
100% mate this guy is a melt 😂
CLICKBAIT
I wonder how much longer it will take this guy to realise a crash isnt coming for at least a couple of years and the pull back from the insane move up after covid is over 😂😂
Over? It has barely begun.
He wants to time the market and he thinks he can spook the market with his RUclips content. He says inflation is crippling for a lot of people, but people are seeing their pay rise, perhaps not as fast as inflation.
This is both good and bad for property owners. On one hand people have less disposable income and a lower savings rate but at the same time property acts as a natural hedge to inflation. Therefore, during a high inflationary period there is still security in bricks and mortar although cash can be king if you find a distressed seller.
There are not going to be many distressed sellers to cause a crash like in 2008 as most property owners in the UK don’t have a mortgage and those that have mortgages took them out in the last 14 years after the financial crisis when borrowing money became stricter which is one of the reason younger generations are still not on the property market.
The constant increasing in the supply of money from the central banks around the world is also the main driver of asset price rises including property prices which has been happening constantly since the late 1970’s.
Regardless of what this guy says inflation will be tamed by at least mid-2024 and people will still be on higher salaries, there will be a reduction in household costs in real terms as we will see deflation in our daily essentials. There will likely be a reduction in the base rate during 2024 as well.
When all the above happens the property prices will spike as people will be on higher salaries with falling living costs in real terms, cheaper mortgages, and an acute shortage of properties where construction activity stalled.
He's been honest about his vested interest at least.
What's yours?
"people are seeing their pay rise, perhaps not as fast as inflation", so they're having a pay cut.
@@nicky_nike In the service sector there is a wage spiral which makes up the biggest percentage of the UK economy. If there is deflation on petrol, diesel, gas, electricity, next year are you going to say you got a pay rise because your pay never went down?
@@damianmichaelides179 The inflation value encompasses all costs. Some costs will reduce and others will increase. If wages are less than inflation, it's a cut.
HAITCH P I
?
@@mokhachoka2918 the letter H is not pronounced with an 'H' sound at the start
Good analysis.
Broken house prices, yes but people will pay for the crazy process. You’ll be shocked to see how many people bid on houses and go crazy ! Nothing will change. People are hoping for a house crash but it’s not happening people. So stop waiting and waiting for a miracle.
If you like a house buy it and stop waiting for a crash