When The Australian Housing Crash Will Happen!
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- Опубликовано: 27 май 2024
- Australia's Real Economy Is VERY POOR Right Now!
Will it get better or WORSE? What are our TWO BIGGEST RISKS?
How will it impact city by city residential and commercial property prices?
In this episode we pick apart the RBA and International Monetary Funds (IMF) Australian economic forecasts.
We discover shocking truths about Inflation vs Wages, AUD currency debasement, Iron Ore prices, Unemployment & Australian "Middle Class" collapse.
These are times like no other. You'll learn a lot.
#australian #china #war
Chapters:
00:00:00 - Economic Forecast and Property Market Risks
00:01:48 - State of the Retail Market
00:03:38 - The Dire State of the Economy
00:05:38 - Getting Ahead in an Expensive Economy
00:07:29 - Understanding Inflation and Currency Debasement
00:09:29 - Unemployment Rate and ior Prices Projections
00:11:24 - Economic Reality and Housing Market in Perth
00:13:12 - Rising Property Prices in Australia and the Rest of the World
00:15:08 - China's Recovery and its Impact on Australia
00:16:54 - Economic Landscape Understanding
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Top notch analysis… very well explained and everything tied together wonderfully..
Even if property prices were to "crash" it'd only be about 10%. Which in cities like Sydney and Melbourne where it's over $1 million to buy anything, that means a drop of $100,000 on house prices. It's still unaffordable for the average young person.
What you don't understand..Is that you will own nothing..The government will..When all debt is wiped..
Can you do a video on industrial commercial properties, where to start, what are the fundamentals one needs to look, basic due diligence, etc. 🙏
Thanks PK from Melbourne
Love this view PK. Very much agree.
Thanks
good work pk , one thing you don’t talk about isn’t backing of the banks by Aussie politicians. Aussie politicians will do everything to pump the house price.
With the Federal Governments huge, record, immigration numbers, demand will continue to outstrip supply, hence will put a floor under housing and the chances are, prices will continue to rise. Brisbane in particular has continuing high numbers of interstate and overseas migration and has some way to close the average gap with Sydney. Interest rates are also very likely to fall from Sept quarter, hence will enable more buyers to return to the market, which ultimately will also push up prices. The housing crisis will only continue to get worse unfortunately for some time to come.
Hey PK. Thank you mate. Amazing content. CHINA. Thanks.
Thanks mate
Hey Pk love you hear more about your insight about China 😊
PK, fantastic analysis. Please a video on China will be great 👍 also what impact India may make with government going into FTAs and increasing trade transactions both ways! How does this place Australian economy in the next 10 years if India emerges as production powerhouse similar to what China did in last 2 decades.
Raj
China's real estate has bursted. Construction halted and infrastructure projects cancelled due to the local government debt crisis. As a result, steel production has been slashed by 14.9%. It hasn't taken an effect on iron ore though.
Nobody actually OWNS property in Australia..It is a form of 'renting'' from the Government/councils and banks...
Correct
You were talking about exponential and endless growth when did you have a change of heart your whole channel goes against this
Please watch the video. Property prices to go up as explained in video.
China - excellent analysis, need more like this on YT, thx PK.
Thanks
Industrial commercial Brisbane, which price point is the sweet spot? Some say below $1m is not worth it
Under $1m is certainly much much higher risk from a tenancy pov..
Looking at the softening demand from China i really doubt the gdp data
super impressed with your analysis
Thank you
which part?
You mention don’t be sucked into buying units as it’s cheap but where can you buy a cheap house in capital city. You can buy 2 units at 250k each than 1 house for 600k
You can buy houses for under $600k in cap cities too
Please use some keywords and get educated
The Aussie yield curve is still inverted. I dont think we're done with this slowdown until it confidently uninverts. I have more faith in the bond market (fixed income) hedging real portfolios with billions under management versus the academics in the RBA & the IMF. Then oil producers are cutting production yet again as global demand weakens yet again. I think we're still strapped in for the ride lower.
Thanks for sharing. Inversion is one factor.
There is one more factor lingering over the horizon.. which is AI .. what it will do to the job markets . Can’t avoid immediate impact on tech sector jobs . Whole bunch of high earning contract jobs will end.. I believe next 2-5 all these histories going to be rewritten by new AI movement. Housing market will follow that. Startups already started hiring half of the people..enterprise software will follow the trend. Tech centres like us , India will suffer the most . Most of Sydney and high end housing markets will suffer as well as smaller investors
Thanks for sharing
And you think AIs use is never going to be regulated? Thats a pretty dumb assumption. If an AI can think for itself and do stuff supervising a human then you have already become slave to AI. Therefore it needs to be better regulated.
@@Vmr48765 this discussion is not about regulation. This is about jobs and economy. What going to impact the most is not the war happening on EU, it’s AI. This is my argument. Also you think by adding regulations with stop AI. Do you think these companies haven’t thought about it ..
@@kelum321 What Im trying to say is govt will not allow AI singularity due to its biases and hence it will be regulated so job loss will be there but not in sophesticated fields like coding
Spot on mate, about 18 more months of growth bcs of migrants whp want to enter property market.
chinease semand for irin ore has deminished and not coming back.. automation and excessive migration has reduced the earnings of mining indivisuals.. Lost jobs r not coming back or going overseas
Thank you for each helpful financial video you put out. As a single person with a mortgage im now in a position where im struggling to figure out how to retain my home and not loose it for my children as ive fallen off the mortgage cliff, so im on the hunt for answers to many many financial questions and im so glad ive come across your channel. Thank you. Now onto finding out how to get a higher paying career. 🤔😆👍
Good luck! One advice is to contact a mortgage broker, maybe they can help lower your rate.
@@AusPropertyMasteryWithPK oh fabulous thank you kindly for that info. That could be the answer. Many thanks
@@AusPropertyMasteryWithPK how about a interest free sharia compliant loan?????
Would love to see your take on China. China being demographically unsustainable and parting ways with the global system that drove its rise. Iron ore prices dropping and money fleeing China in to the property market would seem and very volatile mix.
Next one please talk about the unmet immigration demand over 1 billion people to Australia
Same as China housing crash and Japanese too
China’s economic growth will dictate the future growth of ASEAN and Australia. So a threadbare analysis on this help understand where we stand and the risks in the coming 5 years
Thanks
thank you very much. China please
I was thinking purchasing unit in Perth , was it good idea to buy it ?
No units
I only can afford units at the moment, with my low income $70k a year unable to get house in Perth
@@user-ep1mq7hi2x Buy (US) stocks ETF then. Fed reserve will do quantitative easing again soon to alleviate US gov debt, driving stock prices higher again. Prices already growing to new highs in anticipation of this event. Avoid US commercial property, as thats about to crash.
Hi PK can you please discuss CHINA's economic slowdown in relation to Australia's Economy. Cheers mate!
👍🏼
Pk you mention imf an rba not predicting a recession - you dont think we are in a recession per capita ?. The only reason the numbers arent stating is due to immigration dont you think also ?
Also Pk , you only mentioned Iron Oar , nickel and lithium mines are already shutting and China is at present ramping Iron oar production in Africa at same time as slow down. Thought you may mention other minerals no worries 😌
@@vincewant6325 per capita recession is simply due to immigration shock. The economy is still growing..
Iron ore and coal are the biggest revenues..
Only Simandou has good quality iron ore comparable to Pilbara .. I used to work in that project for Rio
@@AusPropertyMasteryWithPK not by many other’s calculations the economy is not growing only due to immigration.
And not only that mine is the same quality as in Australia as i to work within mining sector in fact Australia Iron Oar is not what you class as high grade in the most part, i would think you would know processes of grade.
China is building other Iron Oar mines in other African Countries also so 2025/onwards will be i think average Iron Oar prices long term $80usd which seems the goal i am hearing on the ground.
Pk how do you come up with Gdp growing with immigration not included Sir
@@vincewant6325Ore mate not oar 🤦♀️
CHINA!
Forget about the RBA.
Inflation will be stickier than expected.
WFH is becoming more normalized so long term commercial property will have major problems.
And if China goes the way of Japan we can expect Iron Ore prices to fall off a cliff and thus Perth will get hit very hard.
Thanks for sharing
We should pay attention to Albonese Labor actions to see where house prices and inflation are heading. UP. Observe that every single policy by Albanese Labor is deliberately creating higher inflation(new money supply). Mass immigration that increased again in 2024, forced pay rises that force business to increase peices, unprecedented fiscal spending.
I put my bet that AUD will be below 40c usd by mid 2025 and Australia will be the first oecd country to have universal basic income as recession per capita will be above 20%.
Considering massive australian fiscal spending and money creation house prices will cost relative to that, approximately double in AUD.
Of course thats only paper gains. Noone gains, except the insiders, big business and polititians
Thanks
I am just wondering, what will ultimately happen when society cannot afford proper housing anyway ? Every year they keep screaming about housing crisis, but I personally don't see any significant changes in the society.
People adjust and adapt anyway, and do you see ordinary Australian families queueing for daily food as a result of this economic issue ? The Govt don't give a rat anyway about us anyway.
It just gets worse until a revolt?
China!!
You're neck deep in debt aren't you; Australian Property Master....
Debt free: www.workwithjoshua.com/pk-gupta-net-worth/
Without millions of dollars of good debt I would never be in this position now
@@AusPropertyMasteryWithPK I'll be interested to see if you're still around in 24 months.
@@johnsmith-vk6sf been investing since 2011, no reason to stop.
How much is the debt? Is your PPR paid off ?
@@loft27ss no debt across anything, I’m looking to buy up more though
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Great info!
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How to contact you? From Singapore. I try asking you to add me on Facebook but seems no response
Do you mean the fb group? My email is on the website
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