Kramnik demands to examine Nakamura’s games
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- Опубликовано: 7 сен 2024
- A few days ago, Vladimir Kramnik posted a message on his Chess.com profile where he took notice of one player’s abnormal statistics. Hikaru Nakamura recognised himself in these fantastic figures… and everybody in the West flew to the rescue of their hero. Can Hikaru win 45 games out of 46? Of course, he’s a blitz genius! Everything is possible on one given day...
But what if such figures are ordinary for the American Grandmaster? What if there were other such streaks?
Watch Vladimir Kramnik’s new video, where the 14th World Champion comes up with an offer to the chess world to tackle this issue together.
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Vladimir Kramnik's petition to chess.com available on change.org demanding that Hikaru Nakamura's record series be verified and that the results of the investigation be published. You can read and sign the petition here:
chng.it/5bYJBgR4Fs
Vlad lives in Israel?
changeOrg? You're joking right? 😂
Accusing someone and then demanding that person to prove himself innocent. 😂. Though probably how it works in Russia
@@steve5nash
russia? the page says vlad lives in israel?
What'd Bobby Fischer say about Hans, Magnus, Hikaru, Wesley So, Garry, Sergey, Alireza?
I take a 2001 interview ( p1w4Rr-Vd or SAWfehKE0iI ) and replace George Bush w/ Magnus :
8 parts
---
On 2022Oct21 at 08:30am GMT+8 (where else?), 6 hours after 'My lawsuit speaks for itself.'
---
Part1
Mercado:
We have for today one of our friends resurrected after the last 14 and a half years. We have 1972 WCC & honourary 0th WFRCC Bobby Fischer. E’s here right now and would like to give some thoughts on Hans Niemann's lawsuit against Magnus Carlsen, ches***m and I think Hikaru Nakamura too, right? In fact, right now, Bobby, good evening. It’s morning right here.
Fischer:
'Yeah, how are you doing - sure Pablo. Yes, well, this is all wonderful news. It’s time for' f Magnus Carlsen to get h head kicked in. 'It’s time to finish off' Magnus Carlsen 'once and for all'. 'This just shows you that what goes around comes around, even for' Magnus Carlsen. 'That is what has happened' this morning.
Mercado:
'You are happy at what happened?'
Fischer:
'Yes, I applaud the act. Look. Nobody gets' Magnus Carlsen & FIDE have been cheating for years. Robbing & cheating. 'Nobody gave a' s. 'Now it’s coming back to' Magnus Carlsen. F Magnus Carlsen. I wanna see Magnus Carlsen found liable & banned.
Mercado:
'Heh heh. All right.' Magnus Carlsen is a WCC, how could…
Fischer:
'Well, apparently' e's not as much of a WC 'as everybody thought'.
Wesley So,
-my nephew, favourite player and compatriot,
-your former compatriot and
-the most talented classical-time player currently
-and thus my successor
had become inaugural WFRCC by winning all these games. Wesley So had no classical losses in that whole tournament, and Magnus Carlsen had no wins in the finals. That was like my double 6-0-0 in the 1971 candidates, which was also a pure knockout, and the inaugural WFRCC finals, Pablo. Probably hundreds of players had competed for that. How is it possible “the great Magnus Carlsen”, the successor of Garry Kasparov didn’t get a single win against Wesley So, MY successor?
We demand a 55 game 3 min no increment match between Kramnik and Hikaru immediately
hikaru probably win this match. but not for sure
@@MrAkhmat what do you mean not for sure, Kramnik would make less than 10 points, Hikaru can flag him every time
@@k.m.7351 Its a common trait of Americans nowadays
Aaah, I see..... So it's basically America negative sentiment. Wow, I myself come from a third world country who supports Palestine, I never like what USA do or did to other countries, afterall, my country was under dictatorship for 32 years thanks to them too. But I can still see the line on what the country did and the individual. Hikaru is not the best of a man personally, I find him sometime irritating and arrogant, but "cheating" is clearly not one of them. Too prideful to do that.
naked and in a Faraday cage
Hikaru should sign the petition himself on stream and say "yes, go ahead and basque in my amazing games, give it all the scrutiny you like until you are satisfied and we can put this beyond doubt".
This should be everyone's mindset but all we see is people getting offended probably cause they cheat.
And put a stipulation that kramnik should come to apologise to him personally and do it in front of cameras and accept him as GOAT online Blitz player if his allegations are turned out to be false
The problem is that Vladimir Kramnik has a laughable understanding of statistics. Heavy analysis has been made by statisticians on every possible plateforme showing that there is no incongruity in Hikaru's play.
If you have 33,000 games with a 90% chance to won each game, you will have MANY 40+ win occurrences.
If you simulate this winrate and this number of games 100 times, someone found a winstreak of 70+ games.
@@ryanfloch6054 so you think HIkaru getting 50 games win streaks 5 times in a month against 2500 and up players is normal when Magnus only gets a 30 game streak once a year? come on man.... I'm still laughing at HIkaru telling the chess world that sandbagging against noobs for entertainment has made him a better chess player. Ya right....lmao. If its not human its not human man. its obvious at that point.
@@cooloutac Hikaru's wins are against players 160 Blitz rating lower than Magnus. He has played 33,000 Blitz games on his main account. Magnus has played 2,000.
Statisticians have analyzed these numbers and found them consistent. Only people oozing with Dunning-kruger bias think they know something these mathematicians don't.
I’ll sign a petition that demands an explanation why a player would go to the bathroom 200 times in four games ! 😅
I guess Kramnik forgot about "Toilet Gate".
My mans going for the fischer arc
Problem is after magnus unveiled the curtain with the Hans Neiman incident. Everything Fischer said about chess has been proved right. ITs a cheater game. I mean hell Yasser even said it was hard for him to learn how to stop pre-arranging draws. We've seen just how exclusive and corrupt the chess world is, and its almost a certainty the Russians were rigging tournaments back in Fischers time. without a doubt lol. Kramnik was probably part of it himself, he knows the mind of a cheater and is probably in shock how easy it is for anyone to cheat online. So he says HIkaru goes around 50 games in a row against 2500 players 5 times a month, and Magnus maybe does it once a year and people are calling him crazy. right. All the smufing kids that are fans of HIkaru seem to dominate the website now. Chess is going to be known as a game for immature cheating kids soon.
I would like to petition that Kramnik release these statistics that he found or apologize to Hikaru
Apologize for what?
How many times did your beloved Hikaru apologize for dirty things he did and said?
@@pavelnovikov1059 Smear, falls accusations, libel
@@wildbestia obviously you did not understand what kramnik is talking about.
nakamura is the one who did all this what you are talking about without being able to proof anything. on contrary. he made a big show out of it and discussed it online unable to understand basic statistics
@@purrpurr6618 One thing I sure didn't understand is whatta heck you wrote.
We need a petition to investigate Bobby Fischer: the guy had 20 game winning streak against super-GMs and had a performance of 3060 in his match against Taimanov. And I’m not even talking about him winning US championship with 11/11, what are the chances of that!? The guy was clearly a cheater😅
Nah we gotta investigate that Magnus guy he was rated 2862 peak and had 100+ unbeaten classical game streak. He's very 'interesting'
100 game unbeaten streak is not that, Ding and few other GMs have that, but 11/11 in US open is unheard of and yet still not cheating@@Frog-2001
@@mn8931 Bruh i was just joking. But magnus does have world record in unbeaten streaks with 128 games against the best of the best
was not intended to be rude, just saying it has been done before @@Frog-2001
@@Frog-2001
Why not investigate Magnus for cheating Alireza, Wesley So, Anish, Danya 2x, Sergey Karjakin, Alexandra Kosteniuk & Nepo?
The table at 12:59 literally shows the that if he had selected 48 games instead of 46 games for the first sample, and compared it to the 4th line, Hikaru was actually playing at close to 200 pts lower than the rating Kramnik is triggered by. This "pick the end points of a dataset to maximize my preconceived notions" has been used dishonestly since the beginning of statistics. It's the same logic that says global warming isn't happening because 1997 was warmer than 2008.
This 👆
And his so-called "performance ratings" are a sham/misleading.
tbhe only stats I need to hear is five 50 game win streaks in a single month against 2500 rated players and up, when Magnus only maybe gets a 30 game streak once a year. Come on man. We are talking about a guy who sees nothing wrong with sandbagging for entertainment while hypocritically chastizing hans for calling some games meaningless. And I gotta say if you support these streamers smurfing for entertainment, well then its no wonder online gaming will never be respected by general society in our lifetimes.
@@cooloutac the crazy streaks he goes on are against the same players. Nobody is forcing them to accept the rematch. As Hikaru said, he's an entertainer and streamer first, and a chess player second, so he has the incentive to make a good video by adopting people whereas someone like Fabi or Magnus does not.
@@LoreTunderin He has the bigger incentive to cheat, unlike Fabi or Magnus is what you don't realize you are insinuating lol. Everybody plays multiple games against players because noone wants to play someone well below their rating. Because unlike HIkaru wants you to believe, that makes you a worse chess player it doesn't make you a better one lmao. The only people who believe HIkaru sandbagging for entertainment on his streams made him a better chess player is naive children. And I don't think he played more than 9 games against a single player and that was only twice out of the five 50 game win streaks in a single month. Keep trying to defend the fact these stats are an anomaly and major red flag.
I do really think that Mr. Kramnik has gone completely nuts.
For doing statistics and data analysis?
@@WippSheridan he keeps talking about statistics but does not present any. In fact, every time someone analyses the data he ignores or deletes it.
@@WippSheridan Dude this has been debunked by many many data scientists already.
He's very calm
@@martinpaddleLike you are doing
Hi Vladimir - I would like to point out that Nakamura was a champion back in the ICC (Internet chess club days) and always good at bullet chess etc. I think it is pretty far-fetched to give the idea of anything suspect with Nakamura - I have also seen him play blitz chess live at Gibraltar Chess event in the hotel bar and it was absolutely amazing. I think he is a major GM Speed chess specialist, and things like the quality of internet connect etc can also be significant for online chess and being able put opponent's under huge time pressure etc. I really think you might be barking up the wrong tree here. I do really admire your chess btw - and loved your London chess classic games for example. I loved your game against NIgel short where you locked in his bishop and also your great contributions to chess opening theory. But on this subject, I would put the probability of Nakamura doing anything suspect at 0% because there is also no need for him to risk his reputation - he is earning so much from streaming too, so doesn't really need to win the titled tuesday event etc. Best wishes, K
Dont' forget we are talking about a guy who anonymously sandabags robbing unsuspecting players of competitive matches for streaming entertainment. Ironically he chastized Hans Neiman for calling some games meaningless. He lacks self awareness and a moral compass and its obvious the website makes exceptions for players to cheat. Same guy who once had a meltdown when Magnus insisted on an arbiter in his room for a meltwater tournament which he then played badly in and vowed never to enter again. Every other Super GM on that website has won major OTB tournaments in recent years except for HIkaru who always blamed Magnus for beating him, as if Magnus wins every event he enters. But Yet noone can put up the same stats as HIkaru online, not even close. I mean this guy has been telling the world that sandbagging and farming noobs online is what made him a better chess player in recent times. But that simply goes against human nature and its a very suspicious thing to suggest. If his rating has increased it must be because he has becomie very picky and particular in which tournaments and opponents he picks. Its why he didn't play in the oympiad. That in itself is dishonorable to me. Let me just add, we are talking about a guy that is as disliked by his peers as Hans Neiman because he was just as toxic as a kid. The latest controversy with speedrunning Hikaru is when he immediately put on headphones in the latest SCC after blundering to Fabi, which almost seemed like a snub against Kramnik. No other player would of done such a thing in that tournament except for HIkaru. But I think its because Hikaru has become so complacent about cheating that he lacks any self awareness anymore.
I agree with Mr Kramnik, things should be verified. And talking about cheating, let's bring toilet breaks during World Chess Championships too
YES! lol.
what if Hikaru is Innocent? what repercussions will Mr. Kramnik face?
ofc nothing, just horrible accusation with nothing but statistical anomalies
@@mn8931 except that they aren't statistical anomalies.
@@bambesfresserno they’re just cherry picked from a normal distribution
it literally is @@bambesfresser some of these are outliers, proves nothing. And if they are not anomalies then its even more stupid.
@@mn8931 The streak that Kramnik is referencing would be notable if Hikaru's opponents would be 20 plus different opponents out of the top 100. But he played a few opponents rated substantially lower (~300 points) multiple times. At a 300 point gap, he has a 90% chance to win that game. But that's only on paper. In blitz settings, that advantage will increase due to time pressure, being in awe of playing someone like Hikaru and so on.
So if you're not "accusing" (🙄) and your "evidence" has already been examined and rejected as a nothingburger by statisticians & mathematicians, at what point will you concede that Hikaru is likely not cheating? Will anything cause you to apologize for the strong insinuation?
The damage he's already doing to his own image is a good price. AND he should at least APOLOGIZE !!!
How about stop deleting comments with actual arguments, then maybe people will stop calling you jealous
accusing hikaru of cheating is a blunder
why? The guy sandbags for streaming entertainment and then chastizes hans for calling some games meaningless. And if you think there is nothing wrong with that you're probably a cheater too. He literally had a meltdown once when magnus insisted he have an arbiter in his room for a meltwater tournament which he got smashed in and never played in again. When he put the Headphones on immediately after blundering against Fabi in the latest SCC, even everyone in the chat was like wtf? It was such a crazy thing to do I almost thought it was to purposely insult Kramnik. But I think HIkaru is just so used to cheating and so complacent about it he no longer has any self awareness. For a guy like HIkaru who has built his career on cheating but tried to convince the chess world playing noobs online has made him a better player, it makes you complacent and more bold. Its the same with thiefs, you think you are untouchable after a certain point. I can assure you that all the cheesy com streaming fans are not even a microcosm of the site itself, let alone the entire chess world who didn't even support Magnus for relinquishing his title and telling kids ratings are more important then competitive matchups or accusing Hans of cheating with no proof. This just seems like Karma at this point.
@@cooloutac Tf is wrong with you?
@@120rikeshlawoju8 I should be asking you that since you can't even address any of the points I have made. I accept your concession. Whats wrong with me? I've been gaming online for 30 years and always had dreams of it being respected by general society. But what the chess website and Hikaru have showed me, is that it never will be in mine of even your lifetime kid. Because general society will never support the corruption.
Kramnik for president!!!
We need a Kramnik Hikaru chess boxing match.
axis of evil = hans, wesley, vlad, nepo, sergey
vs
allies of evil = magnus, hikaru, veselin, liren, daniil
also atousa vs carissa yip - wife of rapid wfrcc vs girlfriend of classical wfrcc.
@@nicbentulanthat would go badly for Naka.
@@very-nice-chess-man
why?
Kramnik is a tall stong Russian.@@nicbentulan
After that match Hikaru will be delivered to local hospital
It seems like every world champion finds a way to destroy their reputation before they leave this world for some reason.
Well, at least they have some reputation unlike you
this just aint true only a few of em have
Lol, accuses someone of cheating and then demands that person to prove himself innocent. Insane!
This is the same method Hikaru and Magnus used against Hans!!
@@ian27792true, karma!!
fair, but Hans was proven and have admitted to cheating @@ian27792
Does he? Seems like his main point is that Chess platform should do same kind of investigation they did on Hans. And on many more people apart of Hikaru.
@@ian27792.. still mad about world Fischer random 😂🤡
He said a whole lot of nothing.
What if cheaters are afraid to cheat against Hikaru, fearing post-game analysis and consequences? Wouldn't this further skew his statistics?
Actualy chess world do not need any explanation of "impossible statistics", chess world needs the procedure to test the player. That means if player shows amazing result he should play some events together with "platform oficial person" in the room. There are no other way.
Hans didn't cheat against HIkaru because it was out of respect. Bu8t he cheated against Nepo and many other top level players. I think the more a cheater cheats the more bold they get with the cheating. Its human nature.
Kramnik mentioned this is a tweet from Jan 3rd.
Apparently chess players have a higher "accuracy" against Kramnik than they do against Magnus and Hikaru.
But perhaps the explanation is that Magnus and Hikaru play silly openings, and that lowers the accuracy of both both players in their games.
Sure, examine his games but A) The website's already doing this. B) Countless actual data analysts - both from and outside of chess's website - have examined them already. C) This is pointless because Hikaru's obviously not cheating. D) He's attacked someone's reputation and pretty clearly accused them of cheating for no reason. He didn't need to take this route.
there have been a lot of wild speculation about which top player (be it former or current) will be next to go the Fischer route - i've seen suggestions of Kasparov and Magnus.
yet it's this dude who decides to step up! respect to Kramnik for taking one for the team
Took my awhile before I understand what you're talking about 😂😂😂😂....
World Champions since Kasparov has been able to keep their sanity, so one bound to fail to do the same 😂😂😂
Even in his prime he had created the whole cheating paranoia controversy with Topalov, this was probably inevitable.
But everything fischer said was proved true. Almost all these players have pre-arranged draws in their careers, and there is no doubt the Russians were rigging tournaments at the time. Magnus really unveiled the curtains with the whole Hans Neiman controversy. Even the whole St Louis panel admitted to prearranging draws, in fact Yasser said it was hard for him to learn how to stop. Chess has simply always been a cheaters game, Kramnik has probably cheated himself. But even he, and old guy with no online experience, is understandably shocked at the rampant cheating that happens online. He's talking about a player that is literally sanctioned to sandbag for streaming entertainment, in a community of sociopathic kids who think there is nothing wrong with using multiple accounts. The anonymity in online gaming is why it will never be respected by general society in our lifetimes. Forget about it becoming a big industry providing jobs, its not even a valid career path for most GM chess players who want to play in tournaments lmao....RIP. Keep acting like Kramnik is crazy, when besides the cheesy com fanboys, he is literally saying what everyone is already thinking.
Better investigate all Russians. Statistically Russians are more likely to cheat, so all Russians should be investigated and banned until proven clean because of mathematically they are cheating.
@@cooloutac even all the stuff he said about Jewish people? You realise they're talking about going off the deep-end and spouting nonsense, not necessarily about chess.
here also the data of the simulation model for the numbers Kramnik has published: Nakamura played 3800 blitz games in 2023, longest winning streak of 79 games. Probability of that even to occur within one year is: 0.249% (+-0.053% 1-sigma confidence interval), for an ELO difference of 350, which indeed would be very unlikely. However, for an ELO difference of 600 points (the number which Nakamura gives for his long streaks), the probability to have such a streak to happen within one year is 26.23% +-0.452%, i.e. it is quite likely. For an ELO difference of 450 points, it is 5.73% +-0.23% which is not unlikely to happen. Thus, it really depends on the players Nakamura picks for his streaks (as he says himself). [for information, the small confidence interval is based on a total of 3.8 billion simulated games per simulation run].
blah blah blah. that is not important because vlad will just discard it and delete it. :)
these probabilities are total nonsense because they assume the games are independent. winning game one increases the probability of winning game 2, and so on. why? because it increases the probability that the winning player is having a good day vs the losing player a bad day. the emotions of a game also carry over ("tilt"). how do so-called mathematicians not understand the basic principle that you can't just multiple the probability of dependent events?
Guy didn’t even go to high school and you can definitely tell.
The irony of a man who was barred from using the bathroom during a match because he was suspected of cheating, now accusing Hikaru---who is much better than him now, of cheating.
It is almost as if Krazy Kramnik is jealous of Hikaru.
when and where Nakamura was “so much better” than Kramnik ?
so far in terms of WC , candidate tournaments etc. (when it really matters) Nakamura is “J’adoube”
… stick to music 🎶 , genius
Unfortunately, the statistics quoted has flawed mathematical assumptions - (a) repeated games against same person are not independent events where probability of win is purely dictated by the rating; (b) the rating is not measure of 3+0 performance but regular blitz and (c) the player choosing the opponent and when they play increases the probability of stronger opponent winning. Simple equivalence is if Nadal plays Federer at Roland Garros 10 days with Nadal choosing the days, the likelihood of Nadal winning all 10 is much higher than a match arranged with time of match determined neutrally (as Nadal could be injured), surface could be grass or clay and probability of win is determined more by matchup than a probability based on their overall records (which is what a rating is).
so playing the same 2900 9 games in a row twice explains the five 50 game win streaks a month? nope...
Actually Hikaru is right about considering the offline rating too. People can have a certain online rating for different reasons. I encounter opponents with vastly different chess skills. Some are good but slow, some I would beat easily in classical but they are just very fast. I know people in the 2000-2200 range FIDE with 2700+ online bullet rating, often kids on the way up. Then there are GMs with the same rating. While on average things even out, for a stronger player the one type of 2700 may be more of a challenge than the other.
This has been very reassuring for people bad at chess. As it turns out, a good chess record has no correlation with your level of common sense or of intelligence. Yey!
In other words, some of these GMs are idiots with subpar IQs.
Every pro-Hikaru comment will get deleted. Just FYI everyone 😅
My very neutral comment was deleted 😢
Thats how its done in russia.
Yup, this is probably smth like Kramniks pet channel and he's just sitting and waiting for comments to delete
Lol, there’s only pro-Hikaru comments so far in the comment section, you seem to get infected by Kramnik’s paranoia
@@Carl-Gauss they have deleted already two or three longer comments on this video I made, even under a thread responding to someone else 🤷 basically any comment that has some strong counter arguments gets deleted, small jabs and insults stay, bc it probably creates the impression there are only mindless "pro hikaru" drones 😑
All this video does is provide more content for Hikaru to reacto to
Vlad, the question is HOW Hikary could theoretically cheat so fast? I mean he plays 3min with no increment, he is also eating, singing, explaining each move meanwhile.. can you show us the same trick?
He is accusing Hikaru of becoming data scientist when Kramnik himself is pretending to be one? hahah comrade you need to get your brain checked
There is a basic flaw in the methodology used to draw all these statistics about probabilities of win streaks, which goes even beyond other problematic factors like problems with modeling real life behaviour (tilting when losing, hardware problems...) or statistical biases. The basic flaw comes from getting a specific "average" ELO value for each player and using that as an absolute measure of strength, and deducing an expected score from that value. Hikaru scored big win streaks while farming single players. The ELO value used to calculate the hypothetical expected score between Hikaru and a specific player he was farming comes from a big number of games played against many other opponents, which were not playing in that specific farming session. It is possible, given the right matchup against the right player, that the average score expected from many games between Hikaru and the selected player is higher than the expected score you would compute from the "average" ELO values that you picked at the beginning. The 3250 ELO value for Hikaru comes from averaging out all the various matchups based on how frequently he plays each different opponent, it does not reflect an absolute value of strength for all matchups. We may find a 2900 player that scores less than expected against hikaru and loses 30 ELO and gives hikaru 30 ELO in the process on average, or we could also find a different 2900 player that gains 20 ELO taking them from Hikaru on average out of many games. The reason why the rating "stays around" that 3250 value is that Hikaru is facing many different opponents, so the ELO gets pushed up and down based on good and bad matchups, and tends on average to stabilize around a single value. If all the players play with full random matchmaking and play against each opponent with equal frequencies then the ELO of each player would converge and stabilize around a specific value, but that property goes out of the window when we introduce farming a single opponent. A good matchup may hold an average score and an ELO differential not equal to the one associated to the "average" ELOs. Hikaru himself would be looking for a good matchup during those sessions, sensing how dangerous each player is based on his experience and on the opponent's play relative to their rating. This is a big problem as the number of games increases, because we are basically using the wrong probability in our calculations, and the more games we look at the more likely the real average score will diverge from the calculated average score.
In case Kramnik wanted to ask, yes, I am one of those with a PhD in mathematics in the various comment sections, but I would rather not give around my name/address/credit card number or whatever else to convince him if he doesn't want to believe me.
it is not about believe, it is about numbers and facts.
if you are a phd in mathematics be more precise and show your own calcs and stats. you can easily do it. even i could but i am just a chemist. othewise you are just another fraud.
i have no opinion about this issue but that if nakamura is innocent he should do everything to proof it. and not behave like a worm on a hot plate.
once i got pulled over by the police in the states. sobriety test. i refused to play a clown in front of a power misusing idiot.
i insisted immediately in breath or blood test since i was not intoxicated. crazy that i almost got in serious troubles. he tried to threaten me (im just a "stupid" foreigner) because i demanded objective and fact based proof of my state
Big problem with top players is they spent their entire youth playing chess, playing chess and playing chess again. At an adult age they can play chess like nobody, but they are pitiful at most other tasks. Looks like there are a lot of holes in their brain. I've seen Hikaru stuggle like a 10-yr old at sudoku. And now Mr Kramnik totally losing his mind about Nakamura cheating because of a lack of thinking ability outside of chess.
The only hysteric acting one is kramnik on his "special operation".
Alright... let's not do that just because he's Russian.
Only Magnus Carlsen can beat Hikaru Nakamura at fast online chess & he isn't really playing. Hikaru is playing people rated 300-400 points lower than him constantly. It's pretty normal he has long winning streaks.
💯
Right, and as he always says thats what made him a better chess player...lmao. sounds legit...
Would love to see Nakamura’s face the first time he watches this video 😂
We will get it, chess world needs to see it firsthand xD
He will milk and monetize the shit out of this for content
I am a big fan of Kramnik and he wrote three autographs for me some years ago in Dortmund for which I am still very grateful. Thank you, Wladimir!
On this topic, I think he is not doing himself a favour.
My hope is, this will be solved without anybody damaged.
Yeah I think all rational people are pulling for Kramnik and want to see chess cheating stopped. He is using terrible judgement here on the entire approach he has taken. He should be much more discreet.
He is absolutely destroying his reputation every time he adds fuel to this mess.
@@KancerKowboy The basic problem with his accusations is that he doesn't have a case whatsoever. He doesn't even have circumstantial evidence much less solid ones. He is out of his depth and barking up the wrong tree. Which is disastrous as I had a high opinion of him until this year. The Hikaru incident is just the crowning jewel in this one.
@@bambesfressersadly this looks like some kind of Dunning-Kruger effect. I'm a huge fan of Kramnik aa a player btw. But here he goes out of his way based on an illusion and even doubles down on it.
@@martinpaddle so you are saying its not unusual he gets five 50 game win streaks in a single month, and the closest anyone comes to that is Magnus winning 30 games in a row once a year? now if you told me that was him on one of his sandbagger accounts for streaming entertainment, which only a cheater would condone btw, then I might say ok not unusual. But even if he is playing 9 matches in a row against a single 2900 a couple times, it still doesn't make sense bud.
@@cooloutac did you do the calculation, taking into account the rating difference and how the games were won? Did you actually analyze the data, like many others did, instead of just looking at it and jumping to arbitrary conclusions?
Man if I explain the statistics to him. He'll call me a paid BOT too 😂 .. Completely hopeless 😂
The information is in fact open source. How those statistics were manipulated is what’s in question. Leave the statistics to statisticians. Not a part time self appointed statistician ex- world champion that suffers from paranoia. You say “let’s at least be a little bit professional “ yet your blatant accusations and biases are far from “professional “. If you’re going to make a point then you should hire objective mathematicians and statisticians to cull objective results. Is online cheating an issue that should be addressed and taken seriously? Yes, of course. But to appoint yourself judge, jury and executioner is just wrong. Especially from a high school dropout.
There are a lot of cheaters in every online game today. Of course also in chess and the skill level doesn't matter. It goes without saying that the respective platform operators only have a limited interest in making public the frequency of fraud.
what noone wants to talk about, is the fact that its obvious when they sponsor streamers like HIkaru to sandbag for entertainment and ad money. Its all corruption. the more these unsportlike kids keep making new accounts, is more accounts they can tout to advertisers. Twitch itself is a farce, When you go into HIkarus chatroom and see a 1000s of people watching. Its probably really only hundreds, the rest are all just fake accounts. Its all corrupt because they know the truth is they can't stop cheating unless we start verifying people like the government would and most people would not be willing to do that. SO they figure they might as well cash in on the cheating instead. This has been online gaming in a nutshell for over 20 years now. I can imagine how shocked a guy like Kramnik must be since this is all new to him, and he's only focused on titled players and pro matches. Its literally a cesspool at the lower levels cause thats where all the new accounts start.
there is a logical explanation that Nakamura is not a cheater. if Nakamura were cheating and assuming he is not an idiot he would avoid such long winning runs in order to not to be suspected of cheating.
Obviously the guy feels he is untouchable. Also its psychology 101 that the more you get away with it, the more bold and complacent you become. And ltes not forget you are even talking about a guy who is sancitoned to cheat for streaming purposes. His whole career is built on unsportlike behavior. Him and his fans all have cheater mentalities imo.
These winstreaks are normal, and if there were none, it would be MORE suspicious.
@ryanfloch6054 you sound ridiculous. Not even nornal for Magnus bud. Maybe normal for someone who's sandbags for entertainment lol. In fact anyone who thinks there's nothing wrong with that is a cheater.
@@ryanfloch6054
Exactly. It's the 1 decade anniversary probability story 'The Patterns in the Stonework' by Ben Orlin - dated 2013Nov11
“Before you place each rock, flip a coin,” the teacher said. “If it comes up heads, place a white rock; if tails, place a black rock. That way, the sequence will be truly random, like nature.”
The teacher left, and the student began placing stones. But before long, flipping the coin grew tedious. Couldn’t she just pick a random color herself? The teacher would never know the difference.
(...)
The returning teacher glanced briefly at the wall. “The stones do not look random. You didn’t flip the coin.”
(...)
“Yes,” the teacher said. “Your mind reads great meaning into streaks, and little meaning into their absence. But in true randomness, streaks are inevitable.”
@@cooloutac
As we pointed out, Hikaru cheated Levon in 2016 candidates.
Arguably Hikaru cheated Hans in the 2022 blitz & rapid WCC by having accused Hans prior which led to Hans' declining performance.
I find the tone and content of the videos and blog posts released by Kramnik over the past few months highly unprofessional and lacking in depth. Not only is he clearly accusing people of cheating (while trying to argue otherwise in a clear example of gaslighting), he does so without presenting any viable evidence. As far as I know, he has not released the evidence he has gathered so far in a way that allows for independent evaluation. Instead, he asks the accused of providing evidence that they have not cheated. It's an astonishing demand. It's almost like he is on a witch hunt, where he accuses people, destroys their reputation, and then says he is doing it all because of "fairness". It is truly deplorable. And anyone that argues with him is accused of being a bot or fan of Nakamura, an argument that is so weak that it exposes the rest of his ideas to harsher scrutiny as well. And all of this from someone who does not know anything about statistics. What he releases in his videos and blog pasts as "statistics" are just "numbers" with one or two minor calculations that a high school student can do. There is a vast difference between actual statistics and mathematics compared to "numbers". Statistics require proper controls, proper context, and most importantly, statistical significance of the "findings" (which in this case are actually just superficial observations). The whole goal of statistics is to identify trends and extract valuable information from large datasets by achieving statistical significance. In other words, a calculation that shows that given the proper context and controls, there is a >95% chance that the observation under examination could not have happened by chance. Without that, any of these "calculations" are pointless. It's an embarrassing display of ignorance. I'd even venture to say that he knows so little about statistics that he doesn't even know how little he knows. That seems to be the reason why he is deleting posts from actual statisticians and mathematicians from his blog post, or perhaps even here. I hope he gets off his high horse, reads a few books about statistics, learns how to code, and then, in a few years, comes back with some actual data.Until then, he should probably come up with ideas and then allow others to do the statistics for him, and publish them online so that we know he's not messing it up again. This witch hunt he's on is absolutely bananas, and if anyone else except for a great player would make these arguments, no-one would or should pay attention to them.
For anyone who understands a little about chess and its skill gaps, the numbers alleging Hikaru plays at 3600 elo is flawed. It’s as simple as Hikaru, FIDE 2800, farming players who are FIDE 2300. That’s like a 1700 playing a 1200. The 1700 will win every time. The whole “it’s a mathematical impossibility” is only if the 46 games were actually against top level competition, like Fabi or Alireza.
I believe Kramnik has explained it and Kramnik understands more than a little about chess.
to put in simple terms. a player getting 50 game win streaks five times a month when the greatest player of all time maybe gets a 30 game win streak against similar rated opponents once a year seems legit to you? Its as ludicrious as Hikaru claiming sandbagging against noobs for entertainment has made him a better chess player. Right.... 5 time SCC champ, probably becaquse he puts his headphones on after blundering like he did against Fabi in the most recent one. Same guy who had a meltdown over Magnus insisting he have an arbiter in his room for a meltwater tournament where he got smashed. I'm still waiting for this guy to win an actual OTB tournament.
magnus doesnt play as low rated players and i am not sure hikaru actually had such 5 streaks as mentioned by Kramnik, could you tell me the streaks we are talking about@@cooloutac
@@cooloutac buddy Magnus is arguably the GOAT of chess. You talk ab winning OTB? Hikaru was 2nd, losing by one point from winning World Blitz 2022. Who won then? Magnus. Ofc he’s not gonna win gold while Magnus lives and breathes. But going back to Hikaru, he’s gone undefeated in the Grand Prix. He won the American Cup and is a 5x US champion. This nonsense ab him not winning OTB is ridiculous.
You mention Magnus only getting a 30x win streak once. Here’s the thing: Magnus doesn’t farm games like Hikaru. He’s actually playing high level players such as Fabi, Daniel N, Alireza, MVL, etc.
@@Hecklerr He hasn’t. He has not pointed to a single game that is suspicious. Hikaru isn’t beating high level players 50/50. He’s playing FMs and fringe IMs.
6:13 What possible basis do you have for this statement? As far as I can tell, your education in mathematics ended in high school. Many people who disagree with you have advanced degrees in mathematics and statistics, and have published detailed analyses.
Pathetic to see what the former world champion has become.
LOL btw Levitov tweeted at Hikaru stating they have nothing to do with this and then use their channel to spew nonsense. These guys are unhinged
Exactly. They have implicitly taken Kramnik's side on this one.
Remember how you guys made those disgusting jokes about Niemann? Weren't you laughing yourself off on Nakamuras channel and judging Niemann?
Kramnik probably has reached the point where no amount of reason or logic would be enough to change his mind. Even if 99.9% of mathematicians would disagree with his very flawed application of statistics, he would just ignore them. I really cannot imagine a single fellow mathematician thinking his stats actually make Hikaru look worthy of suspicion. I recently tossed a coin. What are the chances of that happening at all? Depending of how you look at it, astronomically low, or very high.
I’m not sure what you mean, he’s literally only making his conclusions based off of math and data. It doesn’t matter if you can’t imagine mathematics agreeing with you or not. What matters is what the actual data scientists and mathematicians believe
I demand to know how he has such a good head of hair at 48. This is not naturally possible. There must be a thorough investigation by the relevant authorities.
Vladimir, don't back off on your blatant accusation of cheating. Don't say you find it statistically "interesting". You have accused Hikaru of cheating, now either prove it or apologize immediately. Trying to claim your statements have been taken out of context is frankly embarrasing.
Here a statistical analysis by a computer simulation: assuming Nakamura plays 5000 blitz games a year with players being 350 ELO lower rated than him, the probability for having a 46-games winning streak within these 5000 games is 19.17% (with a +-0.37% 1-sigma confidence interval of the simulation data), i.e. it is quite likely. Assuming he plays only 2000 blitz games a year (which I think is a low number), the probability for a 46-games winning streak is still 8.11% (+-0.28% 1-sigma CI).
For a 3-year period, assuming 5000 games per year, the probability of a 46-games winning streak to occur within these 3 years is 47.33% (+-0.46% 1-sigma CI). So it's close to 50%, like flipping a coin, for a 3-years period.
(note this analysis was even done for a score of 46/46, not 45.5/46, but that's no big difference; the analysis also assumes independent games, whereas in reality the psychological factor of a winning/loosing streak can be assumed to be on the winner's side, i.e. the probabilities for winning streaks against a small number of changing opponents, as for the streak under discussion, can assumed to be even higher).
Kramnik's initial analysis of cheating at titled-Tuesdays was very interesting (and important!!!!), but accusing Nakamura of cheating based on an observed 45.5/46-streak is not supported by statistical analysis, which says that such a streak against 350 ELO lower ranked players not unlikely for the number of games he is playing.
what winning percentage did you consider because i took one from some website but as Kramnik mentioned taking OTB Classical win percentages when talking about online chess is not correct. We could take the win rate of magnus carlsen against opponents of that rating range, if he consider them of equal strength in online chess, magnus being slightly better and hikaru being slightly faster with the mouse.
Funny fact - very often Hikaru wins, not because he plays with 100% accuracy (actually, just the opposite, he makes mistakes), but because the opponent makes more mistakes, and does not notice the mistakes of Hikaru himself. Watch the analysis of the position - jumps every second, especially in the Bullet. Apparently, this is cheating - forcing opponents to make mistakes.
Ability to place on seconds is already taken into account in the rating. As soon as your blitz rating is high, you are really good in forcing your opponent making mistakes on seconds, and you're also good in winning lost positions on seconds.
One of his trademarks is his ability to get out of bad positions, and this is something where consulting an engine would be completely useless... they don't go for swindles and suggest simplifying in lost positions because it would maybe improve the evaluation from -5 to -4.5
May be, may be. May be opponents make more misstakes because they suspect Hikaru... We really need the procedure to test top online players selecting those players who shows "amazing results".
the stunning statistic to me is that hikaru is winning like 50 games in a row against 2500 or better players 5 times a month. And Magnus maybe does that once a year...
@@ROMPJ «amazing result» A very precise definition for a player with 2800 elo in classical chess, a 5-time USA Champion, a 5-time SCC champion, a participant in the recent candidates tournament (3rd place), Fischer Chess World Champion.
If we are going to use statistics, how many players who are top 5 blitz in the entire world play blitz as much as Hikaru does? He's quite unique both in talent and in how much blitz he plays since he makes money streaming it. In other words, perhaps Magnus would achieve similar streaks if he dedicated so much time to playing chess on chessc. He'd memorize a lot about how each account plays blitz (preparation). He might even prepare against certain people that annoyingly defeated him in past blitz matches. His mind would be locked in to play blitz due to practice. And of course, he'd have more chances to achieve a 50 in a row simply due to playing more chunks of 50 games in a row. I suspect someone like Magnus doesn't have the same statistics solely due to him not playing blitz as often... choosing to do other things with his time like live life, prepare for classical tournaments, etc.
When it comes to unusual humans, those that are 5 out of a few billion, statistics can only go so far. In Hikaru's case, he might be the only person on the planet playing as much blitz on chessc as he does. I'm all for analyses, but I just don't think they would be that telling, given the unique situation Hikaru is in. There are other things to consider like what if Hikaru played a couple of players who were having a bad day, so he farmed up 20 wins in a row from each? Statistics can only go so far in validating a streak in chess. What if he were one of the few players of blitz to prepare explicitly for certain players he runs into whereas other players just play to relax? There are a lot of "what if" statements that could explain the weird performance.
With all that said, I see why Kramnik wants an investigation. 4-5 streaks in one month IS unusual. I just wonder if "what if" statements can explain it.
So that's how insanity looks like
I think it happens with age in some people. Some people age gracefully like vishy and then we got kramnik here.
Chess GM's are notoriously paranoid, and find it hard to believe someone can do stuff they can't. Fabi took the right approach. He used to frankly suck at fast time limits, so he worked on that part of his game, and imho is stronger today as a result.
Data alone is not the whole story, if not looked in context.
Russian propaganda tv fried their brains.
Neeraj, he has a point. Why not do an analysis like we did for Hans? Anti-doping measures are common in all games.
Vishy also has his doubts (he seldom plays online), he simply isn't this outspoken. @@neerajnongmaithem392
@@KNNY61 Fabi will constantly beat Hikaru OTB, bu8t he won't come close the stats Hikaru puts up online. Sorry bud, but it doesn't make sense. And for HIkaru to claim that sandbagging for entertainment or farming noobs for rating online made him a better player, literally goes against human nature lol. Its a suspicious thing to claim.
Kramnik's downfall is imminent....from being such a respectable figure to turning into a troll...and calling everyone who beats him a cheater, it's just disgusting.
1500 elo explanation detected
What was the last time when Hikaru and Kramnik played though. Online or over the board?
Btw, Caruana claimed that number of cheaters online might be about 50%. Which is even more than what Kramnik has said. So did Caruana started his downfall already as well?
@@Oleg72855 even caruana is turning into an idiot saying 50 percent players in tt are cheating...anyone who says dumb things like that deserves to be ridiculed...they are in the same category of people who say moon landing was fake.
@@hellfire_97 i am not a scientist but still know enough science to know that earth is not flat...it's the same kind of situation...
@@mohammedshoaib1774
If this were such lunacy, I would assume you'd see much better arguments against the claims than you do. It seems much more a faith based love of online Chess than any rational conclusion derived from reliable information.
So this is the path that bobby fischer took before getting insane...we are witnessing bobby fischer tragedy occuring before our own eyes.....grab your seat and prepare some popcorn boys
Not even close
Except Fischer was the GOAT of chess. Kramnik is very good, but not even close to Fischer
But Everything Fischer said about the cheating and politics and exclusiveness of chess has been proved right after Magnus indirectly exposed it all due to his accusations against Hans.
The simple question to Kramnik would be how many players did Hikaru actually play during that streak and instead of vaguely saying he won 45 times be specific to say he beat 5 or 6 players which is actually more realistic
Aren't Nakamura's streaks what should be expected considering the difference between him and his streak opponents? Is there more to this than Kramnik is telling us?
Respect to Kramnik for putting his reputation on the line like this in a quest to fight cheating. I don´t know if he is right on this issue, but he definitely cares about the danger of cheating in chess (although as a retired player, he could just ignore it and leave the problem for others to figure out).
People often put their reputation on the line when they are just jealous.
@@garibaldi632 They do? Examples?
And what exactly would former world champion Kramnik be jealous of in regards to Nakamura??
@@garibaldi632are you mad, kramnik is former world champion and hikaru doesn't even won a candidate
@@jishavenu6264 Hikaru earns good money sitting at a computer, which Kramnik could not do in his time. and he literally calculated how much Hikaru earned in a year and talked about it on a Russian-language channel. again. The former world champion is counting how much Hikaru earns, it's pretty obvious he is jealous.
@@fundhund62 Envy often pushes people to act rashly or you don’t you live among people? Money, it's all about money. Can you imagine Kasparov or Anand counting how much Hikaru earns?
Any explanation about Nihal's 56 game run in bullet in September?
The thing is that bullet and blitz are extremely tiltable, both positive and negative
I do not like Hikaru as a person at all, but he is kind of the goat of online blitz, 3600 TPR is not out of his reach
Everyone knows online blitz rating are inflated. Those 2950 guys were FMs and retired IMs with fide rating of 2350. The actual TPR was much lower
@@neerajnongmaithem392 What is your point though? They played online blitz with online ratings, so it only makes sense to use their online blitz ratings when looking at the data and not mix fide ratings with online ratings.
@@d0wnpour TPR talks about real strength of a player over a short period of time. But online ratings are not real ratings and therefore cant be relied upon for true performace rating. In statistics, analysis can't be relied upon if the underlying data is unreliable in the fist place. 3600 TPR means playing at the level of stockfish 16, which was clearly not the case as the average accuracy of the games were in 80s and in one game hikaru was completely lost twice with an accuracy of 65. One glance at the accuracy of the players can tell us that TPR is not the right way to test this data. TPR is a very reliable metric when the field is very evenly matched and their is a good number of games. And such incidents are only reserved for closed tournaments where the players are very evenly matched. If you look at the stats of Norway chess and tata steel which are one of the strongest tournaments, the winners almost always have a TPR of 2800+ which is more evident of true human strength.
@@d0wnpour A clear example of a TPR anomaly being Leon Luke mendoca who had a TPR of 3196 in HIT open, when he went 9/9 against players far inferior compared to him. When you take the level of opposition and quality of games under consideration, it becomes very clear that this TPR fails in comparison to Hikaru's TPR of 2878 in Norway chess, Anish's TPR of 2849 in Tata steel and vidit's TPR of 2876 in Grand Swiss.
@@neerajnongmaithem392 You're totally missing the point of Kramnik's claims. The abnormality is not that someone had a certain unrealistic TPR. The abnormality is that someone is performaning way above their usual level for a certain period of time. In this case Nakamura was performing 300 points higher than his all time highest online blitz rating of around 3340 for 40+ games straight.
Well if you really think Hikaru is cheating, then what about the guy who consistently beats him more often than not ? Someone called Magnus Carlsen ?
@@rattamaar9199 wth are u on about, last year hikaru spanked magnus and magnus praised hikaru himself lmao
@@rattamaar9199wouldn't that be exactly the type of person a cheater would cheat against? Use that thing rattling around in your head
@@vitorsimoes7806 I don't think HIkaru has ever won a major OTB speed chess tournament. And he always blames it on Magnus. Which is hilarious because its not like Magnus wins every tournament he enters, far from it. But I'm curious what tournament are you talkinga bout exactly where Hikaru spanked Magnus?
@@cooloutacruclips.net/user/shortsV6lbdbtezWw?si=vltMspodEQprgvsn
@@cooloutac Hikaru has had multiple podiums in world blitz and rapid. And yes, Magnus has 6 blitz titles and 4 rapid titles, so yea, it's quite reasonable to say that Magnus wins every speed tournaments he enters to. It's of course not entirely true, but if you look at those tournaments, Hikaru is runner up or in third place in many of those tournaments.
A lot of factors are clearly not being considered here, but I don't disagree with the fact that what those factors could be researched so that accusations thrown around can be debunked more easily
Real GM, former World Champion vs streamer with 3700 performance
"i have set a trap, i am not accusing, i am only accusing" ...didnt know you could get a traumatic brain injury from chess...
Remember that online Nakamura beats Magnus
Sometimes. Those two trade blows.
The shorter the time controls, the better he gets. In 1+0 bullet he has a slight edge over Magnus, and ironically that's a time control where cheating in a way that is not obvious is impossible.
not when he doesn't have headphones on hahah.
Professionalmathematicians, not hacks like Vlad. have looked at and okayed Hikarus results.
Very disingenuous of Vlad to say " I am not accusing.." Mega BS
Haha, the comments on that petition are great!
Sadly, you have a profound lack of understanding of statistics. It is "interesting" that you claim to understand more about statistics than a bunch of PhD's in mathematics. Now your heals are dug in, and you will continue to defend yourself with a complete lack of scientific objectivity. Sad stuff. You are one of the greats but you've gone off the rails here!
I think hikaru is always the great player, he himself felt earlier in his career. He once said that i am the only person who can rightfully fight the " the sauron" of chess and can take him down..
Only problem of hikaru in pre-corona era was, his was too tiltable and can not make proper decisions in pressure.
After achieving huge success in streaming and earning money outside of tournament made him "Free".
The psychology playes most important role in game of chess. He is most unshakable and un tiltable player on the planet now.
Another thing is more than 100 games online practice /day, is huge booster for his performance.
While no one is above scutiny and I applaud your efforts on ridding our great game of cheaters, it seems professional statisticians disagree with your assessment of GM Hikaru’s win streaks. But that does not diminish your main point about online cheating in general. 💛
He must be having a breakdown. I can't think of any other explanation for this calm lunacy.
Such stats playing against the same players is very possible
Not only did he stream every game, he discusses his ideas and mistakes live while he makes the moves? Have you at least watched the games yet?
Nobody eeeeeeeever cheats while streaming right? Never ever. Its not like speedrunning finds a solid dozen of these people every year or anything.
@@JD-xz1mx Strawman much?
And why couldn´t he cheat while streaming (wearing headphones)?
I realize its very possible. WHY would he? He probably makes more money than any other chess player other than probably Magnus, from streaming alone. I realize its possible but also his games are under more scrutiny than most players.
More eyes on his games than probably any other player, other than Magnus. I just find it highly doubtful. I've watched him play most of these games and he is constantly getting into bad positions and self admittedly making mistakes. He is clearly one of the best blitz players in the world. I don't think his streaks are that hard to believe as he is playing people much lower rated than himself.
Also I"m 100 percent behind Kramnik and think chess cheating needs to be dealt with switfly and soundly. I think he is destroying the anti cheating narrative. He is gonna be known as the Grandmaster that cried wolf.
Terrible optics and strategy he is employing here.
You see a legend tranform itself in a clown. DISAPPOINTING !!!!!!
I'm not a matematition and I'm not accusing anybody but everyone can see that the statistics I'm providing show something very unusuall is happening. So he's basically suggesting Hikaru is cheating while making sure his hands stay clean because he doesn't know much 😅
Its not personal? You are attacking his integrity, livlihood, and career! Already on thin ice on getting sued and banned from tournaments! You've lost it! 100% of Hikaru's games are already checked!! So what more do you want??
You cannot hide a public international defamation campaign behind "Its mathematics I'm not accusing anyone" the law don't work like that, avoid complications and back to reality.
I enjoy listening to the opinions of kramnik and think he should start his own podcast and channel, but I don't think he has watched much of hikaru streaming. If he had he would realise that hikaru is explaining the game while he is playing and any reasonably strong chess player can feel that analysis and emotion is legitimate.
always with headphones....
@@drerskiHe...is.... streamer..... Even if he wears one, what do you expect? Stockfish explaining each and every possible move to him under 2 seconds?? Can you comprehend that each chess move has permutations? A branch move with at least 2 possibility when it's not forced? That's also why cheater always has at least 10 seconds delay. You should try cheating, you will understand.
Hikaru built his career on smurfing? Are you kidding me. HIkaru himself probably breeds and inspires hundreds of cheaters a day. This site is turning into a site for unsportlike kids who use multiple accounts. Forget about it becoming a big industry creating jobs, it will never even be a valid career path for most pro GM's lol. Society will never be able to respect it. I'm still laughing when HIkaru chastized Hans for calling some games meaningless, meanwhile HIkaru built his career on smurfing for a living. And only pro gamer or athlete I ever heard in history saying that pwning noobs is what helped him become a better chess player. Right.... sure.....lol
he is 5 time world speed chess champion - you think he cheated his way to 5 world titles?
@@drerski
@@5RustyBin yes
This guy complains about flagging in blitz. How can you take him seriously ?
Its like drinking water and complain you are not thirsty .
I respect his opinion
It's obvious that Kramnik has trouble with probabilities. In fact, Hikaru making such 50 wins in a row is almost a certainty and likely to happen many times a year. When you are examining statistics in that way, you cannot isolate a specific string of 50 games. You need to take a look at ALL the games and in a sequential manner too. So if Hikaru has played 50,000 games a year, you need to check games 1-50, then 2-51, then 3-52 etc... Basically evaluate all 50 sequential instances and this will give you the number of attempts. If you do that, as someone who understands probabilities would, you will quickly realize that Hikaru doing this is not only possible, but almost certain, and likely to happen multiple times. To better understand why, think about a 1/100 probability. When you attempt to do sth 1 time with 1/100 probability, then indeed your chance is 1%. But when you are doing it 100 times, your chance to achieve it skyrockets to like 70+%. It's dead obvious Kramnik has no idea about how probabilities work, it's embarrassing actually.
Its not about many times a year. Its about he's doing it 5 times a month. And its not like its during one of his cheater speedruns. Even if he is playing the same 2900 9 games in a row a couple times, its still a striking disparity compared to other players who will mop him up over the board.
Futhermore the streaks are happening in during farming sessions where Hikaru plays the same low rated player multiple times.
@anotherelvis out of those 5 streaks two were with a 2900 for 9 games. Gimme a break.
YES ! A world champion class player like Nakamura can beat weaker players ! And easily !
A child could understand that !
25 minutes of him just yapping lmao
heh? what did you expect, a tap dance?
@@JD-xz1mx what are you waffling about?
I think a key point that Kramnik is not considering carefully enough is the idea of performance drop or gain while under pressure. Many times when Hikaru is playing you 15k people are also watching you play. You are not only playing one of the strongest players of all time, you are also being watched and judged by 15k people. It is unsurprising that some people will perform much worse than their rating suggests. Kramnik has been looking at this from the winners perspective OVERPERFORMING but it is also important to understand that the other side may be UNDERPERFORMING. This echos back to Kramniks previous accusations about people overperforming in the later rounds of tilted tuesday. Of course you are going to have some people overperforming and some people underperforming. A players "clutchness" factor is not apparent from their long term elo rating, so you will have these "statistical anomalies" all the time.
A great point, and one which makes it very difficult to accurately determine probabilities.
I bet you believe that he became a better chess player by sandbagging on noobs online for entertainment. Come on man, thats nonsense. Literally goes against human nature. In fact in a recent Gotham Chess video talking about Kramniks ananlysis, he makes the exact opposite claims. That players play better in the more important matches where money is on the line. At least thats what GOtham is saying to disprove the cheating problems expalins by Kramnik lol.
@@cooloutac were you talking to me? It doesnt seem like anything you said related to anything I said yet youre replying to me. You started off by assuming some random thing about becoming a better chess player. Im confused...
@@oecleus0 Because Hikaru is always saying playing online made him a better chess player. But if all he does is play noobs way below his rating all the time, how does that even correlate to human nature? It makes no sense. To me its suspicious and I think he always wins tournaments online but can't win any OTB for obvious reasons.
You can demand all you want nobody needs to do anything about it
I agree with Kramnik. Transparency is important.
He is cherry picking data. How is that transparency? Russian transparency?
Imagine accusing the world number bullet player that he is cheating lol it's impossible to cheat in bullet and Hikaru beat Magnus. Furthermore, I am rated around 2000 a club player and to me Kramnik seems delusional. Online even 1500s can play a game at 97 percent. Now imagine a super professional. Of course he understands the game very very well. I don't understand why Kramnik insists that Hikaru is above suspicion or is not being investigated constantly. He has more proof online than anyone and plenty of otb proof. Not sure what Kramnik is talking about?
I think that Kramnik is right that some people cheat online. This i very easy to do, so we have to assume that this is happening.
But Kramnik's use of statistics is somewhat flawed, and I don't think that it is right to go after Hikaru like this.
Please, keep pushing this topic. Thank you for your persistence!
Yes it continues to discredit him. Keep it up!
@@reelenz We might agree or not with what Kramnik saying. I see a point in the request to explain the statistics. My education "Mathematics. Applied mathematics" and I see the value in the independent verification. Statistics is tricky & sometimes human intuition is not working well.
True reports should be done and published but Kramnik should not accuse anyone of cheating without having proof himself.
I heard Kramnik's discussion on a podcast and found his reasoning embarrassing. If one has a very amateur understanding of statistics (and, I would say, if one is not the greatest logical thinker -- apparently that is possible despite being chess grandmaster), it would be better not to make sweeping accusations of cheating. Also in this video, based on the first few minutes, it appears Kramnik really has no idea what he is talking about.
kramnik is really serious about nakamura lol. if he cheats his career is over. makes 0 sense
It is not statistics. It’s just data. There is a difference 🤦🏽♀️
"I published the statistics" ... I think this is where people tend to cringe when you say things like that. Kramnik, please, as a person that admires your career in chess. You are wrong on this one. Just let it go.
There does need to be more done with regards to cheating but this feels like another case of human intuition being plainly wrong. If this streak is an issue then why isn’t Carlsen’s classical 125 win streak in question, or Ding’s 100 game streak. I’m sure a real statistician could give an explanation on where the average person is misguided
POOR way of doing things from Kramnik!!!!
Very sad that this once great player is tarnishing his own legacy in this way. His campaign, and the way he conducts it make him look weak, and rather ridiculous. Yes, of course there is a serious issue with cheating in chess, but Kramnik's way to tackle this is undermining the very issue that he is trying to solve. With many of the games Kramnik lost against "cheaters" he simply played badly, and made many critical mistakes. This does not prove (nor disprove) that cheating took place. A sophisticated strategy is required rather than Kramnik's amateur, and emotional approach.
KRAMNIK! KRAMNIK! KRAMNIK! KRAMNIK!
It's a good old-fashioned Witch Hunt, grab your pitchforks people!
One question for all of u who defend Hikaru...How can he win so many TT where are playing 25-50 percent of cheaters?
Nuts...