Toronto Real Estate: I’ve Never Seen This 📉
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- Опубликовано: 18 июн 2024
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The opinions expressed herein are solely that of Tom Storey, not Royal LePage or the TRREB and should not be misconstrued as advice or the basis of an agency relationship whatsoever. Please consult your professional advisor prior to taking action on any decisions relating to the matters discussed in these videos. This communication is not intended to cause or induce breach of an existing agency agreement. This is not financial advice. 
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I have a condo shoebox prediction. The developers built far too many shoe boxes. I see a total crash in prices of these units. Enough so that buyers could snap up clusters in line and row, and just knock down walls and convert to family sized units. But the price has to drop to around $200k. So 4 units in a row would be $800k. $250/$350 in gut renovation and you have a lovely inner city family sized apartment.
I used to do real estate, I was thinking the same thing the other day.
Everything but the smallest buildings have poured concrete between units so this is not possible
History has shown that the number of defaults climbs after the first rate cute. It took awhile from the first rate increase to get to the silent boil everyone with a mortgage renewal is feeling. It is not going away with one measly rate cut. Also if they were waiting to get a potentially higher price from buyers because of a rate cut, the flood of listings will only accelerate the price cuts. Especially as more desperate sellers come onto the market - it only takes a couple to reset lower for the next seller. 2025 is the bloodbath mortgage renewal year. prices lower then
Seems like everybody saw Ben’s graph. It was well done.
Ddymp et. And prohibit forever
Since Jan 2024 the Federal govt. has injected $30 Billion into the Repo Market. This makes cash available to Canadian banks as a source of short-term borrowing.
I have seen 3 recessions in US since 2000. The real estate bubble for them got busted in 2008-2011 caused the Lehman Brothers and several other financial institutions to crumble in Wall Street bringing down US to the knees. US then had the luxury to print their currency since they were dictating terms due to Petro dollar. They can't do it anymore. Take Canada we are in exact trend like in Big Short...we are inflating economy artificially through house prices...there is not true GDP increase so far. If we don't change our policies now and stop being greedy, there is no sign for this economy to recover in next 20 yrs
Its peaked. Investors are pulling out. They made their money, they want out. The frenzie wearing off.
How is it weird. Toronto is way over-priced. People are losing their jobs and leaving Toronto. The cuts will be too little too late.
Thats strange. I'm seeing that C1 condos in Toronto have only gone up in value since Feb 2024. But this is where all the investor units are.... hmmmmm..... it IS weird ... ;)
I just noticed C8 is up wayyyyy more.
@@vert911 fake news
@@vert911 You may think that but look at your now 1500 dollar condo fee. That alone is the reason they will not sell
@@alexg9727 where you getting that from? Condo fees come down to two things, inflation and proper condo board management. My above average sized unit has fees below what you say, in a pretty old building. Fees have gone up single digit percentages for a decade. Sure, mismanaged buildings get hit, but this is why it's important to study the status certificate and reserve fund when making a purchase. You generalize way too far. Keep renting bud. I got a great unit for you, 5k/mo. Ask nicely and you can rent it from me.
It's a buyer's marker if you want a shoebox.
Good info, thanks.
The fact that a million dollar delta exists between average condo and average house tells me the floor price for livable condos isnt that far away.
lmao
h
It is a blood bath
Wanted to stay in TO overnight as I had a Doctors Appt downtown. Hotels are unaffordable for middle class people so I drove and took the subway down. I can’t see tourists coming with these prices.
big fan of the stache
Only 10% Investors-High-Income Earners can play in this Market....No Average Income Family can or will be able to Afford these prices....Bubble is about to burst and 1 Million property is going to be 500k...Lots of people are going to be bankrupt...People playing Equity-Equity will see their Equity disappearing - Abra-ka-Dabra...!! Stock Market-banks -abra-ka-dabra
Sure you can afford it just pull some white collar fraud.
Everyone would lose their home. Do you just say nonsense?? You heard Trudeau right? Housing is not going down to $500,000 keep dreaming
I bet you say that every year
The variable or fixed rate doesn't necessarily have to change for the bank rate drop of 25 basis points to have some sort of effect. For example, I noticed that my high interest rate money market fund also dropped its yield by a corresponding 25 basis points from 4.55% to 4.3% immediately following the Central Bank. What that effectively does is punish savers and make them look at alternative investments even if that means getting a fixed rate mortgage.
Strange that nobody makes the connection with the cap gains tax increase. Some investors hope to sell before the deadline, once that passes, the listings should subside. Why does everybody always think a trend will last indefinitely? Now, I'm not fan of newly built condos, but a bit of a price pull-back and cut in rates should find enough buyers.
"A bit of a pull back"...LOL.I live in VanCity and here are some interesting facts (I'm sure TO is not so different), as per COPILOT:
"On average, it would take over 34 years of savings for a Vancouver family with an average income to cover the down payment for an average single-detached home[1]. The time to save for a down payment in Vancouver is 44.3 years[2]
If those savers start at age 18, that leaves them 13 years to pay off the home until they are 65.
Dude these prices need to crash 50-70% to make any sense of price/income.
Change the flipping rules, audit all the buyers account whether their NOA match justify their earnings and they are eligible to borrow from banks and not just somone is paying you rent. Set guideline values for houses and audit all the realtors on the ethics...I might sound offensive but this isnthe reality out there...
But Tom, what about C8 condos YTD? Looks pretty "normal" to me. Is it possible we are going back to "golden nugget" locations go UP, and everything else goes down? Thank you to everyone involved in GTA urban planning and highways who have created the traffic problems. Your incompetence will put money in my pocket.
I'm pretty confident if it wasnt for massive investor selloff, C1 could look exactly like C8 YTD. But it has 4x the active listings.
worst situation of all is clients upsizing to house from condo
Based on Housesigma, the difference between a detached and a condo in Toronto is $1.21M
With rate cuts it’s the bottom
In 2008, rate cuts preceded a big downturn.
Why isn't the over supply resulting in lower prices? Does it just take more time for prices to revise??
Inventory levels need to be in the same range for 3-6 months to see real prices changes. If they go up and down every month, not much will change.
Hi Tom, which one is more walkable and has better rents between area around CN Tour vs ROM? How about the price for a 2 bedroom condo? Thanks.
Etobicoke houses by far buyers market strangely
Hey Tom. I’m looking to buy a condo up to $900 000 in cash. 2 bedroom 2 washroom. For a buyer obviously a condo building that doesn’t allow air bnb, has a good conceriage, good built building and floor plan are important factors in future appreciation. Obviously with the interest rate now many condos have depreciated but looking from 5 -10 years from now what top 5 condos do you think are good to look at if looking to sell in the next 10 years or 15 years. Thanks !
Top 5 condo buildings in midtown or downtown to look at
Midtown: 25 Broadway/30&70 Roehampton, 2181/2191 Yonge. Downtown: 505 Richmond St W, 95 Bathurst, 650 King St W, 75 Portland, 775 King St W/78 Tecumseth.
@@TomStorey Much appreciated!!!
For all of you who lack common sense and may not ever travel outside of the city.
Let me remind you that a person like myself who works in construction; Building decks, doing roofs, tile, flooring etc etc is making under 40,000$ per year in my 30s..
Let's do some math in this joke of a country..
In order to EVER own even a box in this province where the average cost of one of those boxes is 900,000$ I would need to work for 24 years straight and never spend a dime on gas, food or anything else.. Every penny I would earn would be tied into a cookie cutter box for the rest of my life.
That is the state of this country.! In the gutter..
People talking prime locations in Toronto? What career are people specializing in these days where they earn 900,000$ in a relatively short amount of time? How much debt do these people add up on their credit card and mortgages!? They are the reason this country is in the state it is in to begin with! Debt society where the bank types up random numbers and lends them out at interest...
Hey wanna go dancing 💃 🎶 🙂 let's leave this crap behind
Look. Any dude whose first name is “Tiff”….just assume that he started so far ahead of most Canadians that it’s almost ironic that we seem to think he has anything but a disinterested thought about interest rates for Canadians. He’s like our PM….never EVER touching the unwashed masses. Just sayin…
I paid 1400/ft for lake views in the heart of the city, and I will be putting 50% down on each!
Middle class family cannot support these prices at a sustainable fashion. It is just a math. What will happen is really unpredictable. In a developed democratic country shelter should not be a privilege.
Middle class is supporting these prices. Speak for yourself. People are affording it. If you can’t afford you have to rent
@@Lifeisapartydresslikeit how do you know I don’t make good money? Middle class is shrinking, quality of life is going down. Just check defaults on mortgage payments.
lots of defaults. Like 2%. You realize that right? Is that a lot? The middle class are the ones buying these homes. It’s not the wealthy… so yes people will keep buying real estate at high prices in Canada
I agree middle class is shrinking. All I’m saying is people are still buying. Who do you think those people are? They are middle class. Tom Storey just talked about 21 offers or multiple offers on homes in Toronto. Who are those people? They are the middle class going into bidding wars. People need to check their facts. Many do not want to rent and will fight tooth and nail to buy. As soon as the rates come down you will see housing go up. I will come back to this comment in 2025 or 2026 and tell you I told you so
@@LifeisapartydresslikeitOnly time will tell. I guess we just need to wait and see.
Tom's the man!
They need to cut more aggressively to protect the market
No they don't. Saving of the drowning is in the habds of drowning themselves 🤣
"They" need to leave the rates alone because "They" have created this problem in the first place.
"They" should not protect or save people who over-paid stupidly for an asset. To expect me to protect these people with my tax dollars raised through the indirect taxation of inflation (ie Trudy money printing) is as stupid as you paying taxes to save my irresponsible business purchase. Nobody is going to bail me out if I was stupid and went FOMO to buy an over-priced business.
Ps.... BoC cutting rates and diverging from the US Fed funds rate will very quickly trash our dollar. It happened 2 days after Tiff-baby cut rates turning our 0.73 to 0.75 dollar into a 0.72 dollar. Cut much more and we will hit 0.65 in no time. Take a look where you buy most of your food and items from. The vast amount of our imports are US which will cost MUCH more with a trash-cash-loonie. That my friend = ugly inflation! Begging for rate cuts is begging for death by inflation poverty for all.
The detached market will take off and it will start to bring condos back up. Putting a floor on condos too.
lmao
@@Xander71267 by 2026 predictions I've seen are prices are back to peak of 2022. We shall see. Doesn't look like it right now. Esp in condos. But only women and investors buy them.
Seems those markets are "detached" kek
I agree 20000000000%