Lear Jet Med Evac Crash KPNE 31 Jan 2025
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- Опубликовано: 7 фев 2025
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UPDATE 2/3 There is a CVR and it has been found! Good news.
Awesome!!!
How soon until the public gets to see some of the CVR data?
@@julieSpace ask NTSB
Came here to post this question as I'd seen it reported. Of course, you're right on top of it Juan. :-)
HERES THE AUDIO --- " AY AY AY AY AY AY AY AY CARUMBA !!~~!@#$!@#$%$%^?>?!@#$%^
Juan look at the NTSB B-roll drone footage of this crash. It shows a deep impact crater and a nearby sign that's been hit by the aircraft (possible a 45 degree angle of impact). What's really weird is the impact area shows no signs of the wings striking the ground, possibly only a sign of one wing. I just wonder if the airframe has had a catastrophic failure of the wing root. I'm sure your expert eyes will explain everything.
I haven't even bothered listening to anyone's take on this until Juan posted. I don't know if there's a more trustworthy source for anything than this channel right here. Thank you for all you do Juan!
Just the facts with professional interpretation.
Same
There are. There are several. Dan Gryder isn’t one of them.
Nah @@mike73ng
Yes, and I like the way he makes it to where the "novice" like me, can understand what happened. The channel VAS is very good too.
Hi Juan, I enjoy your channel. I was a Lear 55 captain and Lear 35 instructor and check airman for a 135 outfit before I retired in 2010. I was also based out of the Philly area and flew out of PNE often in high performance jets, not only Lears but Citations as well.
Just some things to ponder -
- Initial climb clearance out of PNE is 2000ft. There’s inbound Philadelphia traffic directly above you and you need to level off at 2000 so that Philly approach can get you on radar. They may give you a higher altitude right away or keep you at 2000 for a little bit.
- Departing an airport in a Lear 31, 35, 55 (all of which I’ve done) and having to both level off at 2000ft AND stay below 200kts (within four miles of a Class D tower) means that you are pulling the power WAY back almost immediately after the gear is up. Otherwise, you run the strong risk of busting the altitude clearance and blowing past 200kts. At Teterboro New Jersey (which was like a second home for me for years), it was even worse. We had to level at 1500 feet because of Newark traffic directly above us.
- Along with having to pull the power back to maintain a fairly low initially cleared altitude, you also need to re-trim the airplane to stabilize that altitude and airspeed. (you know all of this Juan....this info is for people who may not)
- In the Lear simulator during training, they would give us a “pitch trim runaway“ directly after takeoff. For those who don't know (I'm sure Juan knows all of this), thats when a pitch trim motor starts running on its own and doesn’t stop. That was the one emergency situation we had to react to almost immediately or the plane would crash. Part of the memory items for that situation is quickly disengaging the primary pitch trim motor by pressing the OS switch (the “Oh Shit” switch) and immediately engaging the secondary pitch trim motor. It’s the most frantic and scary emergency situation they give you during training.
- Many Learjets throughout its history have crashed immediately after takeoff because of a pitch trim runaway in almost the exact same way this Lear crashed last night. I’m not saying this was the cause. I’m simply here to say that this was the first thing that popped into my mind. Take that for what it’s worth.
At the risk of speculating......two other possibilities that, in my opinion, are not at the the top of my list of likely causes.
Spatial disorientation - possible, but I would think that the lateral displacement of the flight track would be more pronounced
Yaw damper malfunction - possible, but apply the same thing I said about spatial disorientation
A stall has been mentioned. I don't think the airplane stalled (I could be wrong), for the reason I mentioned above. Having to level at 2000ft and stay under 200 kts out of PNE isnt really a flight environment conducive for the aircraft to be at risk of a stall. You are already pushing the nose forward (trimming) and pulling back power just to keep the airplane from rocketing off.
I value your experience Juan and would enjoy your feedback:)
Thanks for your comment! I love reading the comments on Juan's videos as there's nearly always someone with highly relevant expert specialist knowledge. I hadn't considered a pitch trim runaway and as you say it makes alot of sense! Thanks again for the extra notes for our benefit!
Thanks for the detailed view!
@accentedpassingtone as a fellow Lear (and many other aircraft) Check Airmen, I like your observations. Trim runaway is most definately a plausible scenario. However, a 70 degree course deviation to the left doesn't compute (runway 24 departure, final aircraft heading is 170). Im not arguing here...im more or less initiating a discussion. Spatial Disorentation, Yaw damper failure, split flaps or thrust reverser deployment all fit that left turn. Speeds seem wrong for thrust reverser or split flaps. 8 seconds.....what in 8 seconds can cause this? I've spent many thousands of hours in transport category aircraft. (From DC3s to to Falcoln tri jets) 8 seconds. Having experienced a yaw damper failure (albeit in cruise) the violent and instantaneous loss of control is more plausible, imho. Please don't misconstrue, im am not being adversarial, I am asking someone of similar background/experience your thoughts.
@@accentedpassingtone I had been a patient on one of these jets, needing to be brought from fl to ma, our cabin lost pressure over Atlanta, and required an emergency landing.. I didn’t know being heavily medicated, but the “landing lights” as I was told were actually fire and rescue! Thank you for your very thorough explanation, and for service 🫡 *aviation public service is admirable, appreciated, and God bless all those in such occupation/passion.. I know the ‘out loud kudos’ is not as forthcoming as it should be 🫡🙏🇺🇸
@accentedpassingtone You say that in a takeoff like this it would be normal to pull the power way back as soon as the gear is up. As Juan says the audio of the airplane about to hit sounds like the engines were at or near full power. Would you expect that to be the case in the event that the pilot was trying to deal with a pitch trim runaway situation as you describe?
I ran the numbers on the ADS-B trace and found that the descent matched a slow left roll with constant 1g, it would have been 110 degree roll to the left when it exited the clouds.
This supports the spatial disorientation theory, correct?
@ I think so, no high g controls commonly seen with stalls
If they pulled back on the yoke instead of pushing at 110 degrees bank that basically would have put them in a split-S and a dive straight towards the ground.
Heartbreaking. The pediatric patient had been receiving ‘life-saving treatment’ at Shriners children’s hospital since September, and was finally cleared to return home.
That makes this even more sad.
So sad 😢
Thats so depressing. Hope all the families are getting the support they need.
I haven't been okay since hearing about this
Brutal. We’re all so lucky to be alive and kickin’.
Speaking as a Lear 35 pilot - this is a phenomenal early analysis. I completely agree with your points about the ground speed being too high to indicate a stall, recognition light being mistaken for fire, and the emphasis on the yaw damper as a potential culprit. I'd be surprised if there was anyone in the Lear community that didn't immediately think, 'I wonder if it was the yaw damper?' There's a ton of confusing information being spread around, but you can trust Juan 100% on this.
Counterpoint: Someone very smart has said many times, you can stall an aircraft at any airspeed, but only one angle of attack.
(Yes, I know it was Brownie that said it.)
Though from his analysis here, I would think that if it were some kind of stall it would be related to mechanical issues. Like the aforementioned yaw damper or flaps/etc.
Left thrust reverser deployment?
@@davedarling4316 An absolutely fair point. Groundspeed alone doesn't tell you what the wing was doing. Groundspeed trend + rate of climb + ground track data gives you an excellent idea what the wing was doing.
Sure, rudder / yaw damper, thrust reversers, main cabin door opening (and going through left engine), faulty 115 VAC to Attitude Indicator (AI), faulty AI, or what is MOST likely… special disorientation. The problem is that it will be unlikely that they can prove anything with the small amount of clues left behind.
Could there have been an ADI failure leading to spatial disorientation?
I flew on XA-ICU many years ago and we had yaw damper issues at the beginning of the flight. I had no idea what was going on but alarms were going off, and the pilots were frantically problem solving. I panicked so badly I told my loved one (the patient) "I love you", and that was it. I woke up later and realized they'd recovered the plane. I had no idea what had gone on until I'd later looked it up. I still have problems trusting flying after it, but I also really appreciate how quickly our pilots solved what happened. It's hard to trust the engineering of these aircrafts after years of use. I hope to god this wasn't the same kind of issue. It feels like a bad dream seeing this in the news.
As always be advised that ADS-B Altitude Reports are NOT corrected for altimeter. The local altimeter at the time was 29.71 which means that all those altitude readings are NOT accurate at all. When you read 1600ft on tracking websites, you have to substract around 200-250 feet to get the correct indicated altitude with 29.71 inHg.
Thanks as always Victor
While the altitude numbers may be off by a little bit...at least we know it didnt stall, nor did the engines fail from bird strikes since they were both at full speed and the air plane was increasing in speed the entire flight (listen to the surveillance videos with audio, the engines are screaming).
Do they assume 29.92?
That is interesting to note. Does that make any buildings or structures on the flight path a potential factor in the crash?
Juan said they appeared late trying to turn onto their designated heading. So maybe they hit something that wouldn't normally be an issue.
Thanks Victor the combo of you and Juan gets us so close truth it's insane when I watch a regular newscast. Like hello, guys you can check the same channels, maybe even call you guys and talk to you.
Thanks Juan.....appreciate your non speculative assessment. As a Check Airmen in the Lear, I agree with everything you stated. In particular the yaw damper possibility has been in my thoughts since I became aware of this tragedy. Thank you again sir. A voice of reason in these horrific occurrences.
@@TroyHoffman-7m2 As a Lear check airman you can help me out. Doesn't the Lear 55 have the dual tail strakes that allow dispatch with an inop yaw damper? I know that was an after market option of the Lear 35A and standard on the Lear 31.
From a Lear 35 driver, I think a lot of people in the Lear community must've thought about that simulator scenario with the rudder hard-over on departure due to YD failure. At least that's what we were shown at FSI. Totally agree the yaw damper is among the first things that need to be looked at closely.
@@TroyHoffman-7m2 no way to ferry part 135 with revenue passengers
Jet rescue is part 135 there should be requirements for CVR
Jet rescue, reach Air medical services, Cal-Ore life flight, AMR, and many other ambulance companies are operated under the umbrella of global medical response GMR. Every one of these accidents are related directly to global medical response.. go to Google “gmr jet rescue “ make sure you type all lowercase
20 series Lear pilot here. Landing lights are mounted on the landing gear so if that is what the ring camera footage shows, gear was still down at the altitude they got to. Seems very late, take off checklist possibly interrupted by a major issue. Checklist sequence for us was gear up, yaw damp on then continue with the after takeoff checklist.
Not a Lear pilot but that was also my question. I've seen plenty of small jet takeoffs and gear is often up and locked before the aircraft even passes the airport fence line. Certainly before the pilot acknowledged his heading instructions. Of course I have no idea what I am talking about.
Could be like you said, they got caught up in a major issue. If landing lights/gear were down, it could also mean that left turn was the flight crew starting an attempt to turn back to the field. Aviate came first so not mayday call.
@@sbkbg That was my thinking too, they had some sort of serious issue right away that they were focused on. Or maybe the 2 pilots got into a physical fight over something and someone leaned into the controls too much.
Honest question here, is the yaw damper not turned on until after takeoff on the Lear 55? Just curious. Different than the aircraft that I deal with.
This is interesting, since the pilots responded calmly to atc even though their routine was interrupted.
If the interrupted routine was intentional I'd expect more panic or strain or something in the voice
Would this be a controlled flight into the ground? Would be sad if the pilots were just exhausted. (but in a way at least assuring that all other mechanical systems are intact and working)
I’m glad you pointed out basically what I’ve been saying myself - that thing didn’t Fall to the ground it FLEW into the ground
I️ agree. Not sure how someone would think it fell, if you watched some of the videos.
Still looking for an answer here, question from a layman: why didn't all these spatial disorientation guys look at their artificial horizon?
@@Styk33 your just splitting stupid hairs ... if a car losses control on a corner and crashes into a wall ... does it drive into the wall ? or crash ?
@ yeah like when a stall occurs you Fall. This was more like CFIT.And that definitely fits with Spatial Disorientation as Juan pointed out.
@@colinobrien3806I agree.
Hi Juan, just a note that if this aircract does operate into Mexico under Part 135, it is required to have a CVR and FDR. Many air ambulance operators switched from Lear 35A to Lear 55 because the Lear 55 had an FDR STC.
NTSB during the last briefing mentioned they were still looking for the CVR.
@@particularlybad Those are called clouds.
@@cornerpage6634they recovered both on Thursday and the recorder from the Blackhawk. Ntsb briefing 3
@@particularlybaddon't hijack threads, dude.
@@cornerpage6634 Which suggests that they know there is one. Even if the airplane had a CVA and/or FDR, there's no guarantee they survived the crash and subsequent fire.
I just posted this on Captain Steeve's site and thought it could help here; part of a wing falling off could explain a lot.
I'm a retired Sr Technical Engineering Manager from Lear. My job included reporting to the FAA about all Learjet incidents.The winglets were a new addition to the 55 as well as aft fuselage stabilizing fins on the aft fuselage of the 55C model. The winglets require regular inspections for fatigue to prevent separation from the wing.
The tearing off of the left winglet would take with it a large portion of the wing and control surfaces, causing exactly the situation described; a separate debris field, loss of lift on the left wing, an exposed fuel tank subject to catching on fire, and an immediate reaction by the pilots to increase thrust to compensate for lack of lift on the left wing. Of course, with a major portion of the left wing gone, a stall is inevitable.
My prayers go out to all the families involved, and I hope the air ambulance service would immediately inspect the rest of their fleet.
This channel is my only source of information on these matters. Highly credible.
One of the, if not the best YT channel on these types of tragedies.
Same!
He never mentioned how anyone would charter a mexico registered aircraft in the US never do that you have no idea of the Maint and or qualifications of the pilots you are gambling..
@@gallardoo9The Med Service is supposedly based out of Miami.
Being a pilot and an EMT whose aunt and uncle lived in northeast Philly, it hits home. Very sad.
My dad grew up on Vista St, so we were constantly visiting my grandparents there until they passed away. It does hit home being so familiar with the neighborhoods and mall in the radius of Cottman Ave and Roosevelt Blvd.
I’m an aircraft mechanic out of KPNE and this one hits to close to home.. prayers to all the families affected in this tragedy.. thank you Juan for another trust worthy report on this accident!
Juan, you are the voice of reason in a cacophony of those more interested in getting there first rather than getting it right.
As soon as I saw the videos, the low cloud ceiling and the adsb data, I thought of spatial disorientation as well... you're a great teacher.
But you're right, a lot of other things need to be ruled out. The pilot on the radio did sound either fatigued or maybe distracted.
Most of all RIP to the poor young girl and her mother... its just heartbreaking!
I saw a comment from a Lear 55 pilot on another forum suggesting that if the yaw damper failed and caused a rudder hard over it would lead to exactly this kind of trajectory, with left rudder then left wing drop and fierce acceleration due to the engines at takeoff power. The yaw damper is normally engaged very shortly after gear up.
Once this type of yaw/roll begins I should think that there is very little time to identify the problem, turn off the yaw damper and then try to recover from the resulting unusual attitude. From peak altitude achieved to the crash took only 7 or 8 seconds according to the ADS-B data, probably beyond the structural limits of the aircraft even if the control authority was sufficient.
I’m also thinking rudder problem. And since the engines were still at take off thrust, they aided the fast descent
similar to the two Boeing 737 crashes in the 1990s even though those events were on landing approaches
I saw the same "another forum". A downright frightful flaw.
If landing lights were on then the gear was still down.
That would explain why their right turn to their assigned heading reversed into a left turn while still climbing.
Hearing Mr. Brown say "Cottman Avenue" is surreal. Never thought I'd watch one of the aviation RUclipsrs talk about a crash in my city.
Seeing the auto tags place on international news was legit twilight zone.
Im from Fox Chase, when NE Philly is hitting the international news its never a good thing
That happened to me two years ago at KSAF, twin engine Cessna that he covered. That was a lesson in high density altitude science
Thank you for pointing out that the light seen while the aircraft was in decent were the landing lights. I had a deep discussion with someone where I was letting them know that these were landing lights and not a fireball.
Seems that there are many thinking the wrong thing. Apparently one of the news stations said it was like a fireball from the sky.
There was a small flash in the air before the aircraft starts pointing down
Wasn’t the gear up?
I did see one man being interviewed by a news station who said he saw a fireball coming out of the clouds. Perhaps he was mistaken.
I don't think we can 100% say that it wasn't on fire on the way down but the sheer number of people saying it was on fire, and with such certainty, is concerning. Dunning-Kruger is all too real.
There’s a significant number of cases where witnesses claim to see an aircraft on fire, when that clearly wasn’t the case. Witness testimony isn’t always very reliable, especially from non-aviation sources.
Thanks, Juan -- We sure appreciate your services.
The technical information Juan provides, speaks to his long experience as a pilot in many aircraft types, and his careful research. Juan is also a certified airframe and powerplant
mechanic. He currently flies 777's for a major U.S. airline. Juan's commentary is the gold
standard, but he is quick to support the work of colleagues in the field of aircraft incident analysis.
I think Juan was a F5 tiger pilot long time ago... on T38 trainer model of F5.. sory for my english
None better
write me a poem
I was wondering how he knows all this. This is my second time visiting his channel after that Blackhawk ran into the passenger plane. This guy knows his stuff for sure. Now I know why.
Thanks chatgpt bot
In the early 90’s I was in the left seat of Hawker 800 climbing out KSDL. It was overcast with the bases around 8000 as recall. The craft had the standard Collin early 5 tube EFIS (before proline) 86. The autopilot was off as we entered the clouds. I was on LNR, FPM and was just following the V-bars. No Hud installed back then.
After about 90 seconds in the clouds the lead on the plane and my friend said calmly “hey Lem, where ya going?” I was in a 10° turn to the left, in the VBars the CDI was nearly center on a two mile scale. So after my quick little scan I looked over at his side and his bars were commanding a turn to the right showing the plane to be in the 10° left bank. I rolled wings level away from the FD / command bars and noticed that the VBARs followed me leveling the wings. I realized that the command bars were following my aircraft symbol instead of flight director commands! I confirmed the attitude with the standby horizon and said, “your aircraft”
I mention this story in reference to this accident just a possible contributor.
Ah, and another one. Back in the dark ages I was twenty one and taking my first charter alone in a PA-31-350, and finally made it to the “big time”. I took off for a trip down to KMIA on a drizzly night out of KVRB’s runway 29. I got on with Miami center and they wanted me to make a turn towards the north west to 340°. So i selected HDG mode and started my turn to the right. The ap/fd was commanding the turn in a 25° bank as I was still climbing. So you know in my basic scan I would go by the DG and just notice the heading bug still deflected well of to the right so I stayed in the turn. About the third time around the instruments I noticed I wasn’t closing on my heading. There was the cheapest of cheap horizon on the right side which confirmed my bank angle but the heading was showing 355° on the right DG. In this case the heading card on the DG froze on runway heading. It was a long night flying both side of the panel. Suddenly I was not so happy to be alone. 😅
I was so tired of the pilots the mainstream media channels all have on, its like they don't know the basic facts of what happened when a lot of it is out there. They just make ridiculous unfounded conjecture. Your video on crashes like this are great, you cut right through all the BS and just show exactly what information we have.
makes you worried about one of those "expert" pilots flying a plane you're strapped into
They call this the Gell-Mann effect. Now when they have "experts" on from the ADL or some university and start talking about this "hate crime", that "conspiracy theory" or any of their other editorially curated "stories of interest" you'll know they're 100%...telling the hand-on-heart honest truth.
got that right@@coldlakealta4043
I think there must have been a bomb on board that blew off the tail of the airplane.
The vast majority of professional pilots refuse to comment on crashes. Most of the television "experts" are just aviation journalists.
It always seems more painful when hearing of a medevac crash, knowing the crew were there solely to help someone in their hour of need & the patient only being in that situation due to some unfortunate life event. Very sad. Thanks for your professional reporting as ever Juan ❤
They were presumably being paid so weren’t there “solely to help someone…”
Well, not really. I mean, they're not volunteers.
@@wattage2007what a trash comment 🤡
From the reporting on this channel, I have gotten the impression that the entire Med-Evac industry is kind of sketchy. I'm sure the employees do their best but the crews are pressured to do all sorts of unsafe things for business reasons.
These high-visibility rescues spend enormous amounts of money that could probably save 10x as many lives if the money was spent more responsibly. It is private money so they have the right to spend it as they please, but they certainly are not optimizing the saving of lives.
I agree, this is absolutely the best channel for clear accurate analysis of these incidents with available data. I subscribed after the Kobe incident.
Agree. I've been following Juan since the Oroville Dam spillway disaster in 2017.
People at work ask me about these accidents like I know something… I just watch this channel and repeat everything Juan says.
Their tktok brains couldn’t focus for this whole video. They would have given up 2 min in and gone to X to see all the conspiracy theory’s about missiles.
@@seashackf1Sad social media addicts but true. They prefer the drama like their mama
@@seashackf1the comments on non-aviation enthusiasts/professionals pages are making my brain melt. So many conspiracy theories from people who know nothing about aviation. One person was saying “NTSB takes too long to investigate!” … lady, they both happened within the last week, give them a minute.
@@melissastory1993 the worst part is they are so sure of themselves and their knee jerk reaction because it’s ‘common sense’ and it’s what they’ve been told to think by their chosen thought leaders.
@@melissastory1993 People think they're entitled to every bit of information instantly and there must be some coverup plot if they don't have it. Very concerning because these same people really will not listen to reason despite being unable to support any of their own claims. I don't understand what makes a person's brain work that way.
If my memory serves correctly, the L55 has a history of cracking found in the flap tracks. Retracting the flaps happens about the same time as the left turn started, so I would not be surprised if they were dealing with an asymmetric flap condition.
Quite Plausible...
How would an asymmetric flap condition cause an uncontrollable nose-down attitude? Not being snarky genuinely curious. Seems like in order to have this unusual attitude something would have to be going on in the region of the horizontal stabilizer, whether it be pilot induced or not
Judging by the crater left by the aircraft, I doubt we will ever know if this was a mechanical failure due to lack of wreckage sadly.
@@BlueHunllef Rolled inverted?
@@BlueHunllefI’m just a Cessna pilot, so don’t listen to me, but if one flap is out and the other in, it’s going to try to flip the airplane (to the left here), which then puts you into a left turn and dive, and hence down you go. I believe (other who know chime in) that many aircraft do not have control authority in ailerons to offset an imbalanced flap condition (at least for max flaps). I think I’ve seen a number of crashes related to such things. I think this is a design flaw of many aircraft wherein the loss of one aero surface should always be compensatable with other still available surfaces. Of course one might still need some time to invoke such emergency compensations and time was not on their side.
Well done Juan. Retired airline here. It's refreshing to hear an expert opinion. The news media and non pilot speculation can border on the ridiculous. Thanks for keeping it real. Tailwinds.
I'm not a pilot but enjoy learning from you guys and I hate hearing people talk about stuff they have no idea about.
Soon as I saw it come out of the fog at that speed with throttle wide open I immediately assumed it was likely spacial disorientation. Even I, as just a casual in the aviation community, knew this didn't look like a stall.
Want to emphasize what you said, "non pilot speculation can border on the ridiculous".
Here's a question. If you fly for a living such as these pilots, or any other. Can spatial disoriention randomly get you one day? Or is it a combination of factors like fatigue with being in the soup, changing frequencies, and general management of the takeoff up to an assigned altitude? It's head scratching how it just gets pilots sometimes?!
@dhvoith That speculation goes for many jobs. Firefighting, home building, bartending, ect. People are clueless unless they have done it. Hell, a lot of people that have done it are clueless.
@@Matthew-hi5ud Excellent question.
One network had an "expert" that said this was an onboard explosion caused by lack of maintenance. I just waited for Juan to come on to find out what likely really happened.
Yeah, I saw that and thought to myself... what a wild ass guess. Pure speculation. Nothing like that shows in any of the videos of the crash.
Fox, right? ;-)
That sounds like something the convicted felon president would say, much like 2 days ago with his "common sense'!
@@randallmarsh1187And his "Infinite wisdom"...
I would delete that channel from my TV.
As a retired Royal Air Force pilot I'm concerned that there are two other RUclips channels both purportedly active airline pilots one of which states that this looked like a stall and the other that the aircraft was on fire before it crashed.
I hope that these other individuals either haven't actually viewed the footage or are only pretending that they're airline pilots as their inability to correctly assess the footage is concerning.
Thanks Juan for your excellent analysis as always.
I thought the same thing. I’m not even a pilot and can see this is NOT a stall.
Been waiting for your take!
Just the facts Ma'am.
Me too!
Dude me too. This one just went in like a missile. Really needed Juans take to make sense of it.
Me too, been on RUclips all day, killing time until Juan could check in.
I was looking for Juan's video on this before it came out, couldn't find it so tried a RUclipsr I never watched before - Captain Steve. His opinion was that it was a stall or a single/double engine failure. To me this wasn't consistent with the video evidence at all. When this video by Juan came out I knew we would get a more informed analysis.
Juan, your reporting and explanation of covering these accidents/indents is legendary!
I ws a simulator instructor on a 4 jet simulator. I could generate this crash to order by jamming the attitude indicator just as the ac started to turn. Worked every time!
There was some research done by an ATC controller who became interested in spatial disorientation. I recall him stating that statistically, the most common spatial disorientation causal accidents occurred when the pilot was instructed to take a turn while in the soup *and* change frequencies. He has advocated that this practice be changed.
All Learjets are 2 pilot planes (I fly several models). The co-pilot would be running the radio.
In the weather, I would have the autopilot on.
Definitely makes sense.
it's nuts that something like this can happen with a totally glass cockpit that shows you where the horizon is. I guess people just panic and trust their faulty inner ear more than the digital displays in front of them. Bad training?
@consortiumxf Even in a car, I had an episode where I looked down to grab my badge. Overcast day gentle downslope highway. Car was on smart cruise control. In just 1.5 seconds, as I brought my eyes/head back to the road I would've sworn the car veered sharply, The urge to correct this with my one hand that was on the wheel was overwhelming.
I have so much greater appreciation for pilots/training and their inner ears after that.
to a non aviation expert, what is the soup? and why can this be so disorienting to pilots?
This channel is the gold standard. The attention to the data and lack of speculation is appreciated by myself. Thank you. One observation that I had is one of the doorbell cameras showed another smaller streak of light ahead of the aircraft.
No it’s the only standard!
Probably the landing light shining through the mist?
I survived a plane crash at Richmond International Airport in Richmond, VA on April 11, 2011 due to catastrophic left engine failure of my aircraft immediately after takeoff. I suffered 65% burns, 68 total surgeries (so far), 2 amputated fingers on my right hand, a completely rebuilt nose, and hundreds upon hundreds of hours of physical, occupational, and psychological therapy. There are risks to everything we do in life, and some things are simply out of our control. I truly mean this when I say live each day to the fullest, tell your loved ones how much you love them, and be grateful for everything you have. I received a 2nd chance at life, and I’m thankful for that every single day.
Good on you, Sir.
Praise God every day you wake up my dear Brother 🙏🤍🌸
Thank you for your comment and congratulations for your strength
I admire you
❤🙏💪
OMG. blessings.
I’ve been refreshing all day in anticipation of this! Really love your take on things
Saw VASAviation this morning. Been waiting for Juan and next will be Hoover with Pilot Debrief. Thanks for y’all’s commitment to aviation. I always learn something new and get food for thought on how I can be a better pilot.
It's exclusively Juan and Hoover for me as well.
Check out flying for money!
The holy trinity.
Juan is the best crash analyst on RUclips.
My order of information as well.
I hope when we fly again we get you as our pilot captain! Your experience and knowledge is amazing! God bless all the pilots of our world! Peace!
If this keeps up, Juan will need to make this a full time occupation.
Thanks for shining some light on this. I saw one of those videos calling it a stall, which baffled me. The videos don’t look like a stall. I first thought catastrophic failure of some sort but we won’t really find out for some time. This is very sad. Thanks for keeping us informed.
It was definitely a catastrophic loss of control, but yeah it did not look like a stall.
yeah, straight down crash... until you hear it was a jet on take-off.
Too sad.
I've noticed over the course of these two latest incidents that everyone becomes an instant aviation expert and they know exactly what happened...even though the fires are still burning. This channel is so refreshing because it's just the facts coming from true professionals (you and Victor). Thank you for all you do and the way you do this in such a respectable manner!
It's awful how so many social media commentators rush to start fanning the fires of conspiracy theories, using incomplete or inaccurate information before we know anything - all to get page views to boost their page in the algorithm. Finally the adults have entered the chat.
Agreed I'm so disgusted with all these wannabe clowns who have no clue about aviation throwing around wild conspiracy, I believe some things are conspiracy but people just use no logic and spew rubbish, that's highly disrespectful to all involved
I think a lot of people immediately knew what happened in DC because of the ATC audio (UH-60 human error) The news on the other hand was all over the place trying to blame it on the tower staff (e.g. new york times) to various political mud slinging (e.g. "never let a tragedy go to waste" all sides). So EVERYBODY ELSE had to basically scream what happened to take the wind out of the media's sails for misinforming the public. For whatever gains they get out of all these spun stories they push.
Especially our illustrious president.
@@acbulgin2I think he means Victor from VAS Aviation.
I'm 6 miles S. of Opa Locka & have seen them regularly . Another sad day in the World of Aviation. Thank You for your report & may those involved rest in peace.
I flew a Lear 55 early in my career over 25 years ago. I recall an incident where I was pilot flying and had a complete insidious failure of the attitude indicator right after takeoff. No problem, it was great day VFR, came back around landed.
Thanks Juan. Been waiting all day for the Juan Brown report. Saw the AtC on Vasaviation this morning.
same
Juan, I never bother listening to anyone else! You’re always spot on!
Retired airline Pilot! Thanks for your work!
Mr. Juan Browne (blancol)
Thank You for this report
You are the absolute best with straightforward and clear explanation of very complex and technical details. You are the Man, A quote often credited to Albert Einstein
"If you can't explain it simply, you don't understand it well enough."
Other media should take classes from you.
Why would there be landing lights if they had positive climb where they would have raised the gear?
From start of decent to impact was less than 8 seconds. Things happen VERY fast at these speeds, with ZERO visual cues other than your instruments. GOD SPEED for all of them.
I told my husband that because it came down so fast, I wasn't sure if it was really a plane or not. I didn't even think about the spatial confusion scenario but as Juan was talking about it it does make sense. Like JFK Jr's plane...trying to fly in fog and in the dark just made for a tough situation. So very sad.
Excellent as always. I worked heavy MX on Leers years ago including the 55. The data so far only raises more questions. This will be interesting if they ever find out exactly what happened.
246kt ground and -11008fpm descent rate combines to 268 knots at the last data point of 675 feet and seemed to be accelerating 3500fpm per ping. Same GS and -14500 is 284 knots.
I figured this out the night it happened purely because I wanted to know if Vmo (300kt sea level) was exceeded (flutter/failure), and it might have been but at a point that wasn't a causative factor at all. So... no overspeed, purely by the numbers.
EDIT: For those who don't know, descent rate and ground speed are 90 degree vectors, combining them is pythagorean. It's just the square root of the summed squares, sqrt((vert^2)+(gnd^2)), and you get the forward velocity as a result.
I've been checking in all day for your take. Watched VASA (excellent,) and then some guy with 4 stripes who seemed way off. You're the best
Thanks for posting this video and shedding more light on this tragic incident in 10 minutes than all the main media have done so far
So much sadness in aviation during the last 30 days or so. Prayers and condolences to the families of all those lost in all of the air accidents lately... Thanks for your impartial and compassionate reports, Juan.
Thanks for clearing up the possible stall theory going around.
In the soup, at night, spatial disorientation is a problem.
He didn't 'clear up' anything. His take is just as speculative as the so called stall theory.
@@SteveL-v9u except for that pesky ADS-B ground speed data.
@@cessna177flyer3it wasn't a 1G stall, but as Juan has said in the past
"Planes can stall at any airspeed and any attitude, but only OE critical angle of attack"
If the plane was at 3-4G, it could have stalled. Unlikely, but possible.
@ at 3-4 G, you would have seen a corresponding rapid increase in altitude or heading change. Neither of those occurred.
I avoided the network news "reports". Been waiting for your video. Thanks.
Kinda amazing. We've gone from trusting faceless corporate brands to trusting an experienced and knowledgeable individual in the actual field. I'm very grateful for these folks and hope to keep finding more since mainstream media is such a garbage bin.
I second this opinion.
Thank you Juan I always appreciate your insight. I have not been able to sleep because of these two accidents. The sadness is so overwhelming. I know there is nothing I could do but the helplessness just strikes me of all these people wiped out in an instant. The poor girl and her Mom just survives and then its all over. Thank you all, hope you are doing better than I am. Regards, Juan
Juan, I've been following your channel since the Lake Oroville days. I live in Philly and never did I think you would be covering a crash that occurred so close to home! Great reporting as always!
Juan, I have been listening since Orville. your presentation is to factual and without guess or assumption. you present facts in whole and by doing so, your credibility is uncompromised. I know you get this all the time, but speaking for those like minded people, we love that you rule out the guesses and present the facts.
while you were presenting air speed and accessnt/decent, it was clear that the plane was well above a stall level.
I, too, have been with Juan since the beginning of the Orville spillway!! He only gets better and better and keeps his comments to facts...
Nice work Juan. Always appreciate your analysis.
I flew LR-35, 45 & 60’s for 30+yrs. It’s too early to say anything but speculation. I hope they can get meaningful info from the CVR because after watching a drone video of the debris field, I really don’t know how they’re going to put this one back together. The only thing even marginally identifiable as an aircraft part was what looked like part of an engine. Very sad. After some conversations with other Lear operators, I don’t think the yaw dampener on or off could disrupt things this significantly that early in the flight. So far our consensus is possibly an ADI fail leading into a deadman’s spiral or what I think more likely, a pitch trim run away. There’s a lot of pitch trim inputs after t/o with gear & flap position changes and with their load, a very heavy aft CG condition. In IMC at night at low altitude. There’s very little time to react and attempt to recover. Add in that they were already 8hrs into their duty day. We’ll see if the trim clacker shows up on the CVR. That might tell the story.
Great work as always Juan. I noticed you were quoted in The Times (and The Australian) newspapers regarding the DCA crash. A testament to your considered and data-driven approach to reporting on these incidents and the work you do to raise public awareness of aviation safety.
Thanks Juan. It's been one busy week for the NTSB.
It's been a busy week for Juan!
Thank so very much Juan for all the great reporting you do. It must be really hard analyzing all these disasters.
It is always nice to hear a true expert lay out the events of an accident and not mess everything up with rumours. Thanks
Terribly sad accident. My thoughts and prayers are with the families impacted and the city of Philadelphia. The preliminary look of it seems it could be like takeoff configuration error. Going from a climb of 3000 ft/minute to a fall of nearly 11000 ft/minute in the blink of an eye without any evidence of a stall is complete loss of control of your aircraft. Of course, it’s far too early to tell. Thanks Juan for a great analysis, as always.
During the mayors press conference earlier today. A spokesman from the fire department alluded to wreckage being found somewhere between the crash site and the runway. NTSB will hopefully give some info on that.
If that's part of the "four corners", did they lose something to alter the flight characteristics? If it's not, did they run into something? Suppose we'll find out in due time.
I have a garage right down the street from where this tragedy happened. There are parts everywhere. I was listening to the police scanner because of all the sirens I heard and 18,000 people were listening to what I heard...police needed more crime scene tape done to wreckage all over the place.
@jukee67 What they want to know is did it get there from the explosion after the crash or did it fall off before the plane hit the ground?
I’ve been waiting for this one. Refreshing his page constantly.
I speculate that something fell between a pilot seat and their control stick.
Seat belt would not permit rapid forward movement so pilot could remove it
and/or other pilot was pulling back on yoke thus preventing object removal.
Foreign object displacement in flight controls has previously caused crashes in both fixed wing and rotary wing aircraft.
I concur. Thanks for putting this together!
I'm a very nervous flyer. I don't fly much but when I doI want either you or Sully as my Captain. Thanks so much for giving us insight how things really work in the skies.
Glad you cleared up the question of on board fire before the crash.
Because from the 1 video I watched over and over, it appeared rather BRIGHT (on night vision cameras) before the crash/explosion.
Thanks.
In all these crashes, I just wait to hear your take. I am a low hour pilot, and find you cut through the "noise" ! Keep it up !
Hearing Mr. Brown say "Cottman Avenue" is bizarre. I never expected to see one of the aviation RUclipsrs talk about a crash in my city.
Same lol. It felt a little weird hearing him say that
I was wondering what that would be like when they're always, "somewhere else." Must be a bizarre smack of reality.
I was thinking the SAME thing.
Hey! If Juan ever visits Philly here....we should all take him out to the bar!
@@MelanieMiran Cottman Ave and Roosevelt Blvd once held the label as most dangerous intersection in the country. Not far from this crash site. I grew up in that area and we went to the mall nearly every Friday to cruise the record store and arcades. Of course that was the 70’s. I left in 1981. Sad to see this happen but a miracle more people weren’t hurt or killed on a busy Friday night.
Me too. Been in this exact spot hundreds of times.
worked 3rd shift for 5 years at a Fl FBO and handled a lot of med flights, usually older Lears and Citations. lots of transporting organ harvest teams. quite a few Canadian operators. long story short, if making an international trip buy travel insurance. saw a lady spend 15K to fly from tampa to somewhere in texas one way. daughter was in texas and injured.
Travel insurance does not prevent a plane crash though.
As usual, a great, no nonsense, factual, pilot's view of what happened. Thank you Juan. RIP to all the souls on board, and those killed or injured on the ground. Tragic accident.
Thanks
This has to have been the most violent crash in recent memory, unfortunately not the only one this past month. Thanks Juan for all you do
Watching its speed at impact was extraordinary. This one is truly baffling.
I also think this was spatial disorientation, unrecognized. Looks like the beginning of an incipient graveyard spiral. On the door camera footage, where the aircraft is coming towards the camera, it emerges in what looks like an 80-90 degree angle of bank, and just before impact it does appear to pitch further into the turn, like you'd see in a graveyard spiral. Can't rule out possible MX issues, but the fact they initiated a right turn and then went left is telling of something. Excellent video.
@@Look_What_You_Didr u a clown
Which is a stall
@ No, that is definitely not a stall. 250+ knots is never a stall. The angle of attack was no near great enough for a dynamic stall either.
@@markdaisey4800 Speed does not determine the stall, excess AOA does.
@yFf22a Correct, and at no point does the AOA look critical during its dive, as you'd see in a dynamic stall.
As of this evening (2/03/25) they have recovered the flight recorder box. There was no discussion of what parameters exist in the unit. The "blackbox" was dug out of the bottom of the eight ft deep crater in a crushed drainage pipe. As you say, it has to be a wait and analyze things. Thanks for factual information without any premature guess work.
This one's really tough. Just some people trying to help a sick kid get home. :(
Yeah and the poor sick kid and her mother 😢
My brother has a bunch of Lear time and his first thought was runaway trim.
Look up the recommended recovery for runaway trim.
The data supports my brother's initial theory.
Yes, I was thinking runaway trim.
@alanm8932 he said the procedure for runaway nose up trim is bank so that you buy some time.
At least if I was understanding him correctly.
@@planesteven Yes, I see what you're saying there, if the trim is running away in the nose up direction.
Here, I think they'd have started the takeoff run with a certain amount of nose up trim. Then as they build speed in the climb they'll be activating some down trim. (Or an auto trim might do it for them). If the switch/relay then sticks, the trim will runaway in the down trim direction.
If they realise what's happening in time they can switch off the electric trim. (Then manually trim nose up).
If it goes too far before they stop it, then it's going to be a difficult keeping the nose up. Building speed will make that even worse.
Also autopilot will disconnect in IMC.
Thank you for your analysis, I was thinking spatial disorientation as well. It’ll be tough for the investigators. I flew Medevac for few years after I retired from the airlines. Hardest flying I ever did. My thoughts and prayers go out to the crew and passengers. Very sad
I can't get over how quickly this disaster occurred...
It's coming down like a lawn dart, no evidence of lift at all, it must have been inverted. Recovery is not possible at the height they were at. Terrible.
Thanks for the detailed analysis
So horrific. Thank you for your consistently thoughtful and clear post-crash reports. 💔
Thanks for your thoughts Juan - Grim reminder that while aviation is still the safest mode of transport, there is particular work to be done in the medevac/air-ambulance/helicopter rescue domain. That sector of the aviation world continues to suffer accidents and fatalities far outside what is seen in other modes. Granted a part of that is the need to be ready to fly in all-weather conditions, but still too many flight nurses, paramedics, and pilots are dying performing this service. Really hoping the FAA is spending extra effort looking at technologies and regulations to improve this situation.
@aarner42 This wasn't a medevac flight. There was no patient emergency. The child had been in Shriners' Childrens' Hospital in Philadelphia for four months. The child and mother were returning home after the end of treatments. If weather had been a concern, the flight probably could have been delayed or postponed.
Thanks Juan, I knew something was off with the stall theories I had seen so far. You are always the voice of reason and details.
Thank You for this report. Yes, there are many questions that still need to be answered.
Thanks!
I looked at the initial video of the driver's dash-cam view, and it literally looked like a missile had bombed the intersection. Had the fireball, speed, and look of one. Absolutely unbelievable. Thanks for the info.
It did look that way :( though missile would have been orders of magnitude faster. But that fire. Gosh.
@mostlyvoid.partiallystars I guess so, what do I know? Juan brings up a good point about the smoothness of the flight path, too. What does it mean?!
Juan, you have been working overtime here the last few days, thank you again for the good content!
I agree with you per a stall, that can definitely be ruled out. To me there are three things that should be studied for a causal factor. One, ADI failure, something that has history on the Lear 55. Two, abnormal (split) flap retraction. Three, failure to turn on the pitot heats, the flight entered the clouds quickly, but the ground temps provide a margin of safety.
Juan after the 'Cherokee' finishes with Control, ATC call for a signal check with the Medvac, they do reply with. "Negative, we ju..... end of last transmission, less than 30 s later a "Whoa" can be heard by another craft, I think it was the 'Cherokee' waiting on hold for clearance, seconds later the next approaching flight radio to ATC, "What have you got going on down there."
I believe the Jet was intact but had lit up inside overtaking pilot during that last snippet of their coms.
I think that was not from the jet - I think that was from ATC to the Cherokee, saying "negative" to their request, but then stopping the transmission because of distraction with the emergency
@@sbreheny Thank you. Very, very busy, & perhaps understaffed Air Traffic Control. There aren't many more ATC except perhaps Piloting...
Thanks Juan, I have also been waiting to see your take on this accident. Spatial disorientation could have been a factor, although it's onset would have had to have been almost instant, given the short time before taking off and the crash. You're suggestions pertaining to the yaw damper settings seems more likely.
Yeah SD would have to be pretty fast.
I used to fly the Lear 55. The first thing that stands out to me is the landing lights are on the Main Landing Gear. So by seeing the lights means they never retracted the gear (recognition light is one light on the top of the tail). The videos looked like landing lights to me. When I saw this crash I was immediately thinking an inadvertent stick pusher activation. Or an elevator trim runaway. The Lear 55’s I flew all had CVR’s but no FDR.
I watched a press conference today (Monday) and I wasn't sure if the guy was saying the jet didn't have an FDR or if there just wasn't one (found.) Thanks for letting us know.
Always appreciate this channel because it just gives the facts and doesn't wade into the tall weeds of conspiratorial nonsense.
I’ve watched enough of Juan’s videos that when I saw the videos and I saw the clouds, the first thing I thought was spatial disorientation. When I saw news and other videos saying a stall I thought, ‘Welp, what do I know?’ This makes me feel sort of vindicated. What a horrible tragedy. Prayers for those lost souls and for their families left behind 🙏🏼
Reacted exactly the same. Complex rocket Lear into immediate IMC, it would only take a minor distraction (e.g. dialing in approach frequency) to lose focus and control within seconds, and then it’s over. What a sad, terrible week.
@@patrickunderwood5662 very sad indeed
Thanks Juan for the sanity check report. Again. Condolences to all the victims of both crashes.
Juan, I have read this comment reported to be from Philadephia's Managing Director twice now: "The debris field is roughly four to six blocks and there is an additional remote area where “something happened with the aircraft", the city’s Managing Director Adam Thiel said.
Thiel wouldn’t expand on his remark but said the National Transportation Safety Board would address it later.
A City Manager?
@
Adam Thiel, the city’s managing director
The NTSB was asked if they were aware of part of the plane having been found in a remote area. This was the NTSB spokeswoman who had just arrived from DC. She said she hadn’t heard about it yet, but would find out and would report on it at the next update.
I listened to a video from a (Brand X) four striper and within a couple minutes I knew he was not going to give me useful information so was very pleased to see your post. This is another tragic result.
I clicked off the same video
We all know who you're talking about. Likes to say eeeeeeeeeeeeeeee. He said he thought it was a stall caused by weight and balance. Didn't smell right at all.