Potomac Mid Air UPDATE 1/30/25
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- Опубликовано: 6 фев 2025
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Allowing helicopters to operate VFR with only 100’ of vertical separation, crossing the glide slope of one of the busiest approaches in the country is sheer madness.
That is the recipe for disaster ! Crazy..
And for training and at night. Yeah, this was an eventuality without question.
At night, no less.
That was my EXACT conclusion !!!!
@@gruanger You expect night training during the day??
As always thanks for the shoutout, Juan. It's awesome being part of your content full of expertise and knowledge. I've learned a lot about the helo routes and their equipment.
You both are legends. ❤
Dude, your stuff is awesome.
Victor, your work is amazing and so very helpful. THANK YOU!
You are both awesome, thank you.
i thought my eyes were deceiving me for a moment. they aren't. i've watched a lot of your videos 🤙🏾
I’m not a pilot, but I was an Army officer for almost 30 years. You can’t see shit with night vision goggles. If the Army is going to play these silly games, they shouldn’t do it in crowded air space risking the lives of civilians.
I'm pleased this aspect has been raised. I've never used them but gather that depth perception and clutter where there are many light sources are downsides. Maybe this is not the place to be using them - other traffic isn't so the goggles are clearly not necessary for routine flights in this brightly lit location.
The ground NVGs are completely different than the aviation ones. I have over 500 hours of NVG rotary wing time. They are great in darker areas, mediocre in brightly lit areas like the city. But that's what allows us to operate safely at less than 200', which is where this Blackhawk should have been.
This still might have happened if they weren't using the NVGs.
This airspace is no place for NVG’s.
@@GantizI’m happy you’re here to discuss this. I have a lot of feelings about this. I have always thought it was insane that the unit at Davison Army Airfield exists to ferry a bunch of privileged Pentagon assholes around as a status symbol. Let them sit in ground traffic like everyone else. But I honestly would like to hear your opinion.
I remember driving using NVG's and it's a steep learning curve because of the lack of depth perception.
Less than 15 minutes and this is the clearest explanation one could get, thank you.
Rule number one, no two aircraft are to occupy the same altitude in the same area, at the same time.
Also, any light or dot on your pilot windscreen that does not move is very very hard to detect with the abundant amount of nighttime light pollution.
Add possible use of nightvision goggles, and now you begin to see the compounding factors.
That’s why everyone tunes in to Blancolirio when bad things happen. I just wish he wasn’t so busy..far too many tragedies are happening lately.
If that helicopter route is down the east side of the Potomac, why did the chopper pilot begin to cross to the west side, and climb? I suspect the pilot thought he was further south, where the #4 route does cross the river and climb to 300 feet.
Either way, chopper pilot (and instructor) fault. But if you go high enough, it is the fault of the Git in the Oval Office.
He made WAY too many changes to the FAA at once...
As a former NVG rated military pilot, flying in this type of airspace in a non-tactical environment on NVGs is absolute insanity. Also, get off of UHF.
Agreed. I always transmitted on Victor around busy airports. Uniform is fine in the flight levels.
Pilot half blind due to NVG, different frequencies, and probably no operative TCAS, in busy airspace? What could possibly go wrong! Baffling!
Helicopter did not maintain specified max altitude, whether they keyed on the wrong aircraft or were on NVG's. Sad...
A cluster fuck waiting to happen and then did.
@@2760ade Too low for TCAS.
This is my home airport. I plane-spot at Gravelly Point all the time. Ive heard the DCA tower controllers scolding the military vip helicopters to get below 200 many many times. I always thought it was kinda funny to hear the DCA tower essentially brow beat the pilots from the Marine one squadron as if they were children getting in the way of the Adults in the airlines. It’s not fun and games anymore after last night.
Military planes and helicopters need to be on adsb like everybody else when they’re in airspace like this. I don’t care what the pentagon or the secret service might say. You can turn it off out over Nevada or the ocean, but not at 300 feet over the Potomac on a training mission. Procedures need to be put in place that prevent this from ever happening again.
Just get rid of the VIP flights. Helicopters are unsafe enough to only justify emergency use, not just to save half an hour getting around DC.
Good info. I suspected there was a "normalization of deviance" thing here where helicopter pilots regularly fly outside the recommended heli route and it is not taken seriously by the FAA or their chain of command.
It will happen again.
@@danbert8 agree with this. "feeling special" and "security" are not justifications for using military helicopters for routine transport in DC
@@davedoe6445 getting rid of helicopter transport would be way way too disruptive to the city. Motorcades are already a nightmare and there would be tons and tons of them if helicopters were banned.
I've learned more about this crash in five minutes than in the hours of newscast I've watched! Thank you!
Yes agreed
Yeah, I just came straight here when I heard about it. I knew Juan would have trustworthy information.
Mainstream media has been dead for awhile now. Real journalists are people like Juan.
yeah because someone who knows what they're talking about is explaining it and not some moron newscaster whose breadth of knowledge comes from watching Hollywood bullshit
"News" is a waste of time. Information is better delivered by those who know more.
Your analysis far surpasses what has been aired by the main stream media.
Mrdia likes dirty laundry
The mainstream media are not pilots. Just watch Juan explanation of gang rapes.
this channel epitomizes all that is good about the Internet and the promise that we all bought into 20 years ago. Thank you for what you do. I think it'll be weeks or months before the general public has the kind of insight you provide here almost real time.Your efforts are appreciated.
The general public won't follow up as this gets investigated. Trump's point that it might be due to DEI will become the gospel for over half. Attention will move on to the latest school shooting and another dose of all sides throwing their notions on the wall and hoping it sticks.
I have missed the InfoSuperhiway since it went to SexSuperhiway. This is an Old Skool, stand apart gem.
Just think , the pamper pets on MSM could have this "expert" assessment(s as breaking news ... but , it seems the spin comes first .
I am in the UK, just an old lawyer interested in science and technology. Time was that the BBC and others had maybe 5 programmes on TV or Radio to cover these things - an hour or three per week tops. Then those were dumbed down to the point of irritating irrelevance, before most of them vanishing. Any given evening I can settle down here to a couple of hours of new material delivered by genuinely authoritative commentators - and I can ignore everything on MSM concerning events of this kind until Juan posts.
@@clovislyme6195 100% this! I am not military, nor a pilot - I just make scale models lol - but this channel provides so much insight and interest. Even when MSM allows more than their usual 30second snapshot, they still dumb it down / get it wrong. They should just be interviewing @Blancolirio instead!
NO ONE, Juan (except you) has had the guts to say that that the helo was above its mandated altitude.
Off course to the west and too high.
Not that I'm an expert by any means, but when Juan described the helicopter flight path and mentioned the 200 foot ceiling, I immediately guessed that the helicopter got too high. Still, I suspect that path is going to be changed to avoid this sort of error in the future.
@@737Parkie Exactly, not just too high.
IMO....all airliners should land at the much bigger and safer Dulles airport.
But, the politicians don't want the inconvenience of taking a 15 mile train ride out to Dulles
Airliners landing at Dulles would eliminate the conflict between the military 'copters traveling down the river and the airliners landing at the river.
@@wordsmithgmxch I doubt most noticed. I did see it in the leaked radar video. The helicopter climbs sharply at the last second.
When everything is broken down like this, the question becomes 'how have we managed to go 15 years without a major accident', not 'how did this accident happen'. The systems around that airfield, and most likely many others, have been flirting with disaster for years.
It's like driving without a seatbelt. You might not need it 99% of the time but when you need it you're glad you have it.
DCA should be relocated to Andrews AFB IMHO
It's called 'big sky theory'. Which is not really reliable in any case, but is maybe mostly true in some vast midwestern spaces. But there's a reason most accidents, (as you might expect), occur near airports, (and also navigation aids/intersections). Still, it's actually kind of hard to hit other aircraft. The difference between a hit and miss here is just a couple of seconds. I think FAA will look at this one first, and then probably at EVERYwhere else to see if there are other spaces where we've been luckier than smart.
@@ScottsAwatchin I don't know, I do flight training at a somewhat busy towered executive airfield and it seems like it's way too easy to get into a midair if you misinterpret a callout and don't spot traffic in time. I can imagine it's even worse at congested commercial bravo airspace.
Suicide by Blackhawk...🤔
I've always thought that helo route right under 33 final was sketchy and during my career at the airlines have always declined the circle to 33 when asked. I cant help but think, if only that crew wouldve uttered those 2 words that I have so many times "unable 33" we wouldnt be talking about this. BUT so many factors had to align for a tragedy like this to occur and unfortunately that night, they all came together 😢 May they all RIP and major safety changes come of this.
Great Job Juan! As a former Army Helicopter pilot and current Airline pilot (40 yrs) who has flown both the DCA helicopter routes and airline flights into DCA, You covered it all, to include the NVGs. Best explanation on what happened with the limited information so far.
Someone suggested that the helicopter pilot may have turned and climbed in order to wash off speed, to enable it to pass behind the aircraft he thought he was supposed to have visual on. Would that make sense to you?
@@maxxuman9915 Only if he had turned east. Turning toward the airport as airliners descend and come down to his altitude, makes NO sense. Helo really screwed up. Would love to know what they were thinking/trying to do. By no logic did it make sense to turn west when you acknowledge that you are going to go around the back of the airliner, even if you thought the airliner you saw was actually one of the ones further back on approach. I don't think, given the altitude difference, and what is along the east bank of the potomac, that the airliner blended in with any buildings. Helo crew must've just not been paying close enough attn. They turned right, airliner was off to their left because of this, I'm guessing they didn't scan far enough east as the airliner would've been out the side window seconds before the crash.
They recovered both boxes from the jet. Does a Blackhawk have FDR and/or CDR??
@@LoneStarMillennial Do you think that last few seconds of track depicted for the helicopter is accurate ? That was quite a heading change.
@@LoneStarMillennial What do you think in general in this situation about vortices? Seems unsafe to vector a low-flying helicopter underneath an airliner flying low and dirty. Didn't enter into this tragedy but could have created another one with the helicopter getting slammed into the ground.
This channel is the only media location I have been able to get full, accurate and timely information on this tragedy. I am very glad I have this as a resource.
Somebody says this on every channel lol
This truly is and I’ve watched quite a few videos searching for information….
Agree!!
@@brucesmith1544 Exactly, makes me wonder, anyway, he is accurate and knowledgeable for sure, but timely, there are 24 hours, live streams on site for that, just to observe perhaps.
Totally agree.
I suspect it is time for some changes to the Washington Class B! Putting that helicopter route under the finals for 33 is insane!
It's probably been like that for 50+ years tbh. Let's wait for the investigation before we reroute all the air traffic around DC
Just tell the army to take their training base elsewhere. Some General throwing his weight around. Stupid location.
Crossings are unavoidable. Helicopter exceeded the 200 ft ceiling by 200 ft, and was W of the “route one” track. Both of these deviations contributed to the collision.
Allowing visual separation by only one or two hundred feet at night while airliners are on short final is absolute insanity! There must be some change here and quick.
@@glomph the way around this is to send the traffic on a different route with some track miles to climb and then overfly the field
My son flew that approach on 33 many times when he worked for republic. It is too short for all but regionals. He said it is voluntary to use it and ATC will ask when it gets congested. He said he puckered up the first few times till he got used to it. He said you are nose high and banking left as it is tight and you cannot see below you and to the right till right before you land. It is a tragedy and my heart goes out to everyone. We all just need to wait for the NYSB report to know exactly what happened.
It seems as though the CRJ had completed the turn and was in the run in. But yea, as it's turning into the 33 lineup, it may not see the heli running in. Thank you. I as well am eager for the NTSB report to see the factors that contributed. Also, I have noticed SPECIFICALLY on this incident that the comments here are pleasantly devoid of the conspiracy baloney. Folks come here that want the facts and no bs.
The heli route is approximately 0.8 NM from the touchdown zone of runway 33. Runway 33 PAPI lights have a 3 degree glide path indication and touchdown zone elevation is 13 feet. Using the Climb/Descent Table, 3 degrees is approximately 318 ft/NM, which means the 0.8 NM is 254.4 feet + 13 feet, 267.4 feet which is the approximate altitude of an aircraft on the visual glide path for runway 33 at Heli Route 4. Heli Route 4 top altitude is 200 feet. That's about 60 feet of separation! That means the visual glidepath and the heli route are practically intersecting eachother. I'd like to know the FAA's rationale for approving this. Why not have helicopters "hold position" and wait for a crossing clearance? This seems to me like the equivalent of having pilots cross active runways using "see and avoid" or "visual separation" rather than getting a clearance to cross.
Right, like having them stop at Hains Point (south tip of the island where Jefferson Memorial is) maybe? Especially at night!
excellent comment to have the helo hold position for landing aircraft runway 33
I did the math and came to the same conclusion. The helicopter path essentially goes right through the runway 33 approach path, not below it. I would say aircraft need at least 500' of vertical separation before it would be considered safe. Visual separation alone should not be allowed near major airports.
Wouldn`t be suprised if the blame goes on the commercial plane at the end with the explanation that it decended into the helicopter.
The FAA's rationale is "this is what the military is dictating to us, and other than diverting planes about 100 times a day, there's nothing we can do".
Since last night, I've watched dozens of top media reports and the press conferences from the local authorities, the president, and the NTSB. Yet this channel and another piloting channel were the only sources of actual information. Thank you so much.
In the event of an aircraft accident, this channel is the only source for quick information, and the NTSB is the only source for the eventual facts.
The president was hardly a source of actual information. The most disgusting press conference ever. He made assumptions on subjects about which he had zero knowledge and topped it off with a rant on DEI. An embarrassment.
@@greener8116 I think you've misinterpreted that, I reckon he really meant "...the press conferences from the local authorities, the president and the NTSB. This channel and another piloting channel were the only sources of actual information.", but he decided to join the sentences with a confusing "and" as quite a lot of people seem to do...
@@greener8116 I only meant to imply that these are sources from which one ought to be able to expect to receive legitimate information on such events and yet they fail to provide it. I don't believe I deserve to be called names for stating something so obvious... unless that name is Captain Obvious. Then I guess that's fair game.
I'll agree that at times, I'm useful; and at times, I'm an idiot. But the "his" part skeeves me out. I don't know what I said that implied otherwise but apart from my being an American citizen and his being the president, we have no connection.
@@gerryiles3925 yeah, my sentence structure was garbage. I'll edit for clarity.
Relying on 100 feet of separation with airplanes approaching an airport seems like madness.
Indeed, exactly.
they should not allow 100ft separation unless the displayed resolution is 10ft, otherwise the two aircraft can be at the same altitude with nobody noticing.
@@nealsotn1865 they should not allow 100ft separation *period.*
That is WAY too close for any kind of response time.
Definitely no room for error.
@@nealsotn1865isn't display resolution +/- 100 feet?
Juan, thank you for these videos. As a pilot myself, I can’t stand to watch any broadcast news that attempt to report on these accidents as most are looking for a way to dramatize a disaster. I’d rather have the facts, which you present so well, and respect your input and common sense to the causes of these accidents.
Excellent work as usual there Juan. As a helicopter pilot with over 13,000 hours and over 400 hrs on those exact ANVIS9 goggles I can tell you that you’re spot on regarding how the outside environment appears when using NVGs. I do believe as you’re speculation that they crew of the chopper did not see that immediate threat ahead of them and mistook another aircraft for that one. So very tragic indeed .
Wasn't the aircraft above the helicopter? People are saying the helo was 200' higher than it was supposed to be, and that it ascended that 200 very quickly. That makes me think the helo thought the 2nd plane was the one they were looking for and planned to gain altitude to be above it.
Also, if you have been given visual separation, that sounds like "You've got visual so go ahead and choose your path, just stay out of the way."
@ he was told to pass behind the plane. And as to why he climbed when the jet was descending is odd which makes me think that he lost awareness of his altitude and he was not visual with the plane. Believe me to gain 200 feet is very easy
@ those planes are still gonna fly the glide path and localizer the ADSB showed they were perfectly aligned on centerline ant glide path. So even though they are cleared for the visual approach they will still either be on the ILS or other GPS navigation guidance. Or at least on the VASIS
One issue to me was the lack of communication possibly between the jet and the helo. So many questions to be answered.
@ImhavinganervousbreakdownPilots never talk to other pilots in controlled airspace. Unfortunately, in this scenario they weren't even on the same frequency. The regional jet pilots never even knew the helicopter was out there since the controller never alerted them and they were busy flying the approach. This lack of communication (separate frequencies) contributed to the lack of situational awareness.
The controller asked if the helicopter pilot if he saw the traffic. When I use to fly the controller would say for example traffic 11 o'clock 1 mile descending 1100 feet. I understand the tower had 19 controllers instead of the usual 30. I am wondering with more controllers more information? Also did the ATIS say that runway 33 was active?
Better content right here than all the news networks combined! Thank you!
Totally agree.
News networks no longer employ aviation specialists. That’s why you get stupid mistakes in articles like this, showing an A380 as the crashed aircraft, for example.
this clear, who authorized training program in nights with line of traffic civlian planes rute is the madness cause this tragedi
@@billykulim5202 So the easy solution is not to allow the helos to operate at night. Try telling the brass or the politicians "No can do" and see how long such a policy would last. This particular unit exists to ferry the high and mighty, civilian and military, to and from locations all around the greater DC area. Add to all that the fact that it has now become a political policy issue - stalemate guaranteed.
Amen Jesus!❤
Straight facts, no bull. No conspiracies. I appreciate your direct, factual, education approach to your breakdowns.
Amen @chrishewitt, when I learn of an aviation incident anywhere in the US (or Australia where Juan also flys and where I live) I ignore all other reporting and wait for the blancolirio channel to post the facts.
Exactly Chrishewitt
He didn’t even mention DEI once. I guess he didn’t get Trump’s memo
but the president said it was because of DEI. he also wants to rename the helicopters from black hawks to white hawks to prevent further accidents.
@@RobertoCarlos-tn1iq😂😂😂
She was porpoising that chopper between 200+ and 309 ft. Crossing the final approach glide path, a highway that all commercial aircraft use to land on runway 33, with seemingly no understanding of how critical it was to stay at 200 or lower while on that final approach highway.
Was she? How do you come to that conclusion?
🎏1) THE GOSPEL OF THE WORD OF ALMIGHTY GOD "the Age of Grace ends with the coming of Christ and He brought the last age the Age of the Kingdom or age of word to purify man with His Word"
The vision of God's work (1)
Almighty God says
JOHN WORKED for JESUS for SEVEN YEARS, and PREPARED the WAY when JESUS came. PRIOR to this, the GOSPEL of the KINGDOM of HEAVEN PREACHED by JOHN was HEARD ALL OVER the PEOPLE, so it SPREAD throughout JUDEA, and ALL CALLED him a PROPHET. 🔴
AT that TIME, KING HEROD WANTED to KILL JOHN, BUT he did NOT DARE, BECAUSE the PEOPLE were LOOKING at JOHN, and HEROD was AFRAID that WHEN he KILLED JOHN they would REVOLT AGAINST him. The WORK that JOHN did BEGAN to GROW AMONG the ORDINARY PEOPLE, and he MADE the JUDEES BELIEVE. For SEVEN YEARS he had PREPARED the WAY for JESUS, UNTIL the TIME JESUS BEGAN to FULFILL his MINISTRY. 🙏
And SO, JOHN is the GREATEST of ALL the PROPHETS. JESUS ONLY STARTED His OFFICIAL WORK AFTER JOHN'S CONFINEMENT. BEFORE JOHN, there was never a prophet who had PREPARED the WAY for GOD BECAUSE BEFORE JESUS, GOD had NEVER BEEN HUMAN. And SO, of ALL the PROPHETS to JOHN, he was the ONLY ONE PREPARING the WAY for GOD to be INCARNATE-MAN, and IN this WAY, JOHN BECAME the GREATEST PROPHET of the OLD and NEW TESTAMENT. 🙏🙏
JOHN began to SPREAD the GOSPEL of the KINGDOM of HEAVEN SEVEN YEARS before JESUS BAPTISM. For the people, the work he did seems to be more than the following work of Jesus, BUT he was, however, STILL another PROPHET. He did NOT SPEAK and WORK in the TEMPLE, BUT in the TOWNS and VILLAGES OUTSIDE it. He did this, of course, in the town of the JUDEES, ESPECIALLY the POOR. JOHN rarely interacts with people from the high level of society and is SIMPLY SPREADING the GOSPEL to the COMMON PEOPLE of JUDEA to PREPARE the WORTHY PEOPLE for the LORD JESUS, and PREPARE the APPROPRIATE PLACES where He MADE. 🔴
BECAUSE there was a PROPHET LIKE JOHN to PREPARE the WAY, the LORD JESUS IMMEDIATELY BEGAN His PATH to the CROSS as SOON as he ARRIVED. When God was in a bad mood to carry out His work, he did not have to do the shopping of the people, and He did not have to find people or places where He would work. He did not do such a work when He arrived; A WORTHY MAN had PREPARED EVERYTHING BEFORE He ARRIVED. 🙏
JOHN had FINISHED this WORK BEFORE JESUS BEGAN His WORK, for WHEN GOD CAME to WORK-MAN to DO his WORK he immediately made them to them for a long time. JESUS did NOT COME to the WORK of HUMAN CORRECTION. He CAME to FULFILL the MINISTRY of His ROLE, and everything else had nothing to do with him. When JOHN CAME, he did nothing but BRING OUT of the TEMPLE and AMONG the JEWS a GROUP of THOSE WHO RECEIVED the GOSPEL of the KINGDOM of HEAVEN, that they COULD be the PURPOSE of the WORK of the LORD JESUS. 🙏
JOHN has been WORKING for SEVEN YEARS, which MEANS that he has SPREAD the GOSPEL for SEVEN YEARS. During his work, JOHN did NOT PERFORM MANY MIRACLES, BECAUSE his WORK was to PREPARE the WAY; THIS is the WORK of PREPARATION.🔴
All the other tasks, the WORK that JESUS would DO was UNRELATED to Him; He SIMPLY ASKED the MAN to CONFESS his SINS and REPENT, and to BAPTIZE the PEOPLE, that they MIGHT BE SAVED. Although he did a new work, and OPENED a WAY that man had NEVER WALKED, he ALSO PREPARED the WAY for JESUS. He was a PROPHET who DID ONLY the WORK of PREPARATION, and did NOT have the ABILITY to CARRY OUT the WORK of JESUS. JESUS was NOT the FIRST to PREACH the GOSPEL of the KINGDOM of HEAVEN, and EVEN though he CONTINUED the PATH that JOHN had BEGUN, there was NO ONE else to do his work, and it was more than John's work.
JESUS could NOT PREPARE his own way; His WORK was DONE DIRECTLY in GOD'S NAME. So, NO MATTER how MANY PEOPLE DID JOHN, he was STILL a PROPHET and another PREPARED for JESUS' WAY. The THREE YEARS of JESUS MADE the SEVEN-YEAR-OLD WORK of JOHN, BECAUSE the SPIRIT of his WORK was NOT the SAME. When JESUS BEGAN to FULFILL His MINISTRY, WHEN JOHN'S WORK also ENDED, JOHN had PREPARED ENOUGH people and PLACES for the LORD JESUS to USE, and these were ENOUGH for the LORD JESUS to BEGIN with the THREE YEARS of WORK. And SO, once JOHN'S WORK was COMPLETED, the LORD JESUS OFFICIALLY BEGAN His OWN WORK, and the WORDS JOHN SAID were SET ASIDE. 🔴
That is BECAUSE the WORK JOHN DID is for the SAKE of CHANGING--- STATUS and his WORDS are NOT WORDS of LIFE that WILL LEAD man to NEW GROWTH; EVENTUALLY, his WORDS were ONLY TEMPORARY. 🙏
From “The WORD Appears in the Flesh" Holy Bible
The actual significance of (John 1: 1,14 "the word" and the word "and the word") "At the beginning of the Word, the Verbo was God, and the Verbo was God." ... "" The word became man and he lived with us. "... (Revelation 18: 9,13)
It is led to all that the coming of God's coming from the prophecy, "the coming of the Son of Man, will be similar to the coming of the Flood in Noah's day. In the past, people were eating, drinking and marrying, until the day Noah entered the armpit. "(Matthew 24: 37-38). Statement. And his statements from his mouth are found in his church or kingdom of earthly engraved and his new name that he owns, "the Church of the Almighty God" 💐 This is the name he introduced to our ancestor enrolled in (Genesis17: 1) "When Abram was ninety -nine years old, Jehovah appeared to him and said," I am the Almighty God. Follow me and take care of yourself as you live. "(Genesis 28: 3 Isaac sends Jacob to Laban) "May God bless you the Almighty God in your marriage to have many children to be the father of many nations." ... (Genesis 35:11 God blesses Jacob in Bethel) "He said," I am the Almighty God; You will have many children. ... (Exodus 3: 6) "I am the God of your parents--of Abraham, Isaac and Jacob." .... (Exodus 3:14) .... And this is the name they will call me forever. "... It is also the fulfillment of his construction of the church that has been fulfilled, "And I say unto thee, You are Peter, and on this stone I will build My Church, and will not prevail over him even the power of death. (Matthew 16:18). And the recorded prophecy in his renovation of the name, "He who will succeed will make me a pillar in the temple of my God, and he will never be removed there forever. I will engage in him the name of God, and the name of the city of my God, the new Jerusalem coming down from heaven from my God. I will also engage in him my new name. "(Revelation 3: 12" The letter to the Church in Filadelfia "). "You will find me and find me if you find me with all your heart." . ... "The hearing is to listen to what the Spirit says to the churches!"
(Revelation 2: 7,11,27,29 and 3: 6,13 from the letter to the seven churches). 💐 ... (Revelation 22:17 The coming of Jesus) "The Spirit and the bride say," Come! "Everyone who hears it will say," Come on! ... (Matthew 7:11 is the narrow door) "Go in the narrow door; for the door is wide and the road is wide, and this is what many go."
⬇️
The recorded prophecy is below!
⬇️
John the Baptist is referred to in the preparation of the Lord Jesus' way from
(Isaiah 40: 3 "Hope's words)
There is a VOICE SHOUTING: "PREPARE Jehovah the WAY in the WILDERNESS;
A flat and righteous street for God. Dump the valleys, flatten the hill and mountains ....
⬇️
(Matthew 3: 3 "The preaching of John the Baptist"). John is the prophet Isaiah in his words,
"This is what one SHOUTS in the WILDERNESS
'PREPARE the PATH of the LORD, and TAKE his PATHS! "
⬇️
(Luke 3: 3
.... "REPENT of your SINS and BE BAPTIZED for God to forgive," he said. So what is written in the BOOK of the Prophet ISAIAH is FULFILLED: ....
8- Identify through your life that you repent. .... ....
18- JOHN PREACHED many more things to the people in his revelation of the good news.
19- But he insisted on Herod Tetrargy because he was with the affiliation ...
➡️ (Matthew 14: 5 "The death of John the Baptist")
"HEROD WANTED to KILL JOHN BUT he was AFRAID of the JUDEES, because they RECOGNIZED JOHN the BAPTIST."
⬇️
(Luke 7: 26-28 "The sentiment of John the Baptist")
"What do you want to see? A prophet? Yes. And I say unto you, More than a prophet.
"Because John is what the Scriptures refer to:
'I will prepare my messenger before you, he will prepare your path.'
I say unto you: John is the greatest of the born, but great than the greatest of God's rule. “
⬆️
⬇️
Elijah and John were one. One of their Spirits is the greatest prophet in the Old Testament and in the New Testament.
(Matthew 17:10 "JESUS CHANGES")
"The DISCIPLES ASKED him," WHY DO the SCRIBES say that ELIJAH should COME FIRST?
JESUS ANSWERED, "ELIJAH CAME to PREPARE all THINGS.
I TELL YOU that ELIJAH has COME, BUT PEOPLE do NOT KNOW HIM. And they did what they wanted. Likewise, they will suffer the Son of Man. "
And the DISCIPLES UNDERSTAND that JOHN the BAPTIST is what he is REFERRING TO. "
In the Old Testament (of the Bible)
(1 Kings 17: 1 "God sent Elijah")
In the New Testament (in the Bible) Elijah became John the Baptist who referred to God the greatest prophet who had prepared his way in the Old Testament and the New Testament.
(Matthew 11:14 "The sentiment of John the Baptist")
If you believe, he is the Elijah come.
⬇️
(Matthew 3: 13-14 "Jesus was baptized")
“Jesus came to Jordan from Galilee and came to John for baptized.
John told him that the language was, "I need you baptized, and you come to me!"
But Jesus responded, "Let it happen now; for this is what we must do to fulfill God's will." And John agreed.
My Chief Pilot, who was a retired Colonel in the Air Force and highly experienced Test Pilot, told me 31 years ago…”It’s not the Aircraft you see, it’s the one you don’t see that you will hit”.
I have taken that with me my entire Aviation Career and always makes me look several times before confirming a visual sighting!
This is a horrific accident that truly should have never happened…😕
Agreed
Your chief pilot sounds like a good Father.
Basically, look both ways before you cross.
@@georgehill3087 As one had said, "Its the plane you don't see that gets you".
I can think of a no better saying to keep in your mind in the cockpit.
Do my mind, the controller didn't really make a "late" call to PAT. He had already advised them of traffic a full minute beforehand, immediately after clearing the CRJ to 33. PAT had at that time accepted visual separation, and the call when the conflict alarm went off was just to confirm that they did in fact have the other aircraft in sight. To me, this is an airspace issue - 30 metre separation is just not enough when both crews are in a high workload environment. They either need to close the Route 4 during northerly winds, or Route 4 needs to become an IFR only route so that controllers can provide spacing.
Would it help if runway 33 was full IFR and not a late visual? I mean they flew it correctly so it's not their fault, but it just seems like it's leaving a hole in the cheese that doesn't need to be there.
Agreed however, its at night, anyone in ATC knows depth perception tanks at night. City lights and other airliners with strobes flashing...best to let ATC separate them.
@@mal2ksc I don't really think that played a role here at all
There is no such thing as one and done. As soon as those convergence alarms go off urgent directives should’ve been given to the helicopter and to the RJ.
Agreed
woah, woah, woah. The helicopter is flying 100 feet above its maximum restricted ceiling limit and veering towards the Southwest rather than hugging the river bank and into the aircrafts projected flight path! If these 2 errors were not made we likely wouldn't be having this discussion at all and all victims of this tragedy would be alive and enjoying life.
100%
Precisely
And actually 200’ above maximum altitude and certainly not hugging the eastern shoreline. Climbed from 200 to 400 and from east river bank to the center, both in the moments before the collision.
He had climbed all the way to 350 feet by the end of if
You are so right! 😞
You cannot witness that collision and not be affected by it.
Those people flew all the way from the center of the country, only to die less than three minutes from being safely on the ground.
It is heartbreaking.
A beautifully compassionate post. God bless you.
I'm not affected by it. I haven't seen a single dead body. It's being verified as another psy-op hoax.. Fear mongering. Military don't fly aircraft in front of commercial runways at same altitude as landing aircraft. lol lol D U H ! Delusional propaganda.
So true my friend. It is heart breaking.
For years I have read countless articles that "close calls" are so common, that ONE DAY that close call will be a direct hit between two aircraft, yesterday the odds ran out and it happened. The feds usually are not proactive, but reactive. It really enrages me that it took over 60 people to lose their life to probably make these reactive changes, which will avoid this from happening again, I HOPE! Juan, you are so valuable to YT and aviation. Thank you for all of your time!
On a side note, I have navigated the water on this entire area of the Potomac at night over the years and there's so so so many flashing lights, you can easily disorient yourself and not have any idea what you are actually looking at.
I just think the heli totally looked past the plane right in front of their face like Juan said. If they maintained 200 feet, we would be talking about another near miss today....
Wasn't this airport supposed to be phased out when Dulles came on line?
You would hope that the base would monitor closely how its traffic operates, to proactively catch pilots flying in an irresponsible manner. And the FAA should never have allowed the scenario that appears planned to take place, leaving only 100-200 feet of separation on a good day. It's insane and begging for a tragedy.
@@Johnny-tt8zc Living in the DC area the increase in logistical hassle, as a passenger, involved in flying in/out of Dulles vs. DCA is significant
Clearly the helo's fault, as he was too high. 67 American lives lost on American soil under new military leadership within 12 days of inauguration. No commercial airliner crashes in 4 years under previous military + civilian leadership. Do not want to hear about 7 military American lives lost on foreign soil in wartime conditions (much more dangerous) under the previous leadership ever again.
@@donmoore7785 Sitting back and looking at this, It's like making both traffic signals Green and then wondering why there was a accident. Buy everything that Juan said this was going to happen some day and 1-29-25 was that day, the FAA should have never allowed crossing traffic with that little bit of separation, giving the airport the room they need and making other traffic move away from the airport.
Hi from Italy here. I do really appreciate your clear and fully intelligible english which makes easier for non american people to understand your updates. Of course knowledge of aviation terminology is mandatory to follow the explainations. But your assertive approach to the subject is a greater help. Please keep the good job going on. We mourn the people who died in this crash. It's particulary sad to hear the calm voice of what seems a young pilot of the CRJ, unaware of being few seconds away from death.
I was very saddened by that too, hearing his calm voice not knowing that was his last conversation. May he rest in peace along with everyone else. What a tragedy!
This whole arrangement seems like madness.
Esp. At night.
Welcome to the US airspace system. Overcrowded airspace with understaffed controllers.
Agreed. It seems to be inviting something like this.
(Mostly) controlled chaos.
@@markg7963 When did this last happen?
The only ILS approach at National is to 01. Tower will divert regionals and light aircraft to 33 to speed up operations conditions permitting. If the CRJ lands on 01, tower can position and hold a big jet on 01 but can't clear him for takeoff until the CRJ clears the runway. Divert the CRJ to 33 and you can position and hold the big jet while the CRJ is diverting. Normal landing will carry the CRJ across 01 allowing the tower to clear the big jet for takeoff as soon as he crosses. Without using 33, National is a one runway operation and National can be busy early evenings. During the day, I've seen National landing all regionals on 33 while using 01 only for big jets. The desire to speed up operations seems like a contributing factor here.
PAT25 was not just high but also off-course. Route 4 hugs the shore and the helicopter was in the middle of the river.
Sure. But the procedures and the airspace is divided in such way that a millimeter of error, and kablamo. It should be designed with much higher margins, as errors happen.
Wouldn’t approval for visual separation give him the freedom to do that? Otherwise it seems pointless. You go where you need to in order to maintain clearance, yes?
Then the issue is more simply “clearance from what?” And that’s where it went bad.
Or do I misunderstand visual separation?
@@ydonl the clearance is the separation from CRJ! however, heli crew could not positively identify the CRJ (how can you, it’s just landing lights at night, absolutely no way to tell the airplane type), so in a way you are correct: clearance from what? This visual separation vertically by 100 to 200 feet at night should not ever be allowed.
@@ydonl You may be on the right track horizontally, but I doubt vertically.
@todortodorov6056 Oh it’s completely messed up. Runway 33 touchdown zone to the east shore is about 4000 feet. At 3 degrees of standard descent, that’s (tan3x4000) = 200 feet altitude. There’s no safety margin for traffic crossing under the approach.
Another contributing factor is that two controllers are usually staffed for Tower to divide the workload. That frees up one to concentrate on the arrivals and departures, and the other herds the helicopters. From my understanding he was pulling double duty because of staffing issues.
Has Trump's "Swear loyalty or leave now!" dribbled down to the FAA yet?
I was wondering if someone would bring up air traffic controller staffing issues - they’ve been shouting about it for a while, too many of them retired during COVID and not enough new people have been onboarded to carry the load.
@@yellowrose0910Trump and Musk forced the resignation of senior FAA officials the prior week.
No, this is the result of bidens DEI idiocy. @@yellowrose0910
You may be right. It sounded to me as if the ATC was handling quite a load.
Man, that last pause before Juan says "...see you here" spoke volumes about how he feels about all this.
Hang in there, buddy. You're doing great work. We feel ya.
When I read untruths I referenced Juan's first video on this. This is the GO TO SITE after airline crashes. There rest is WORTHLESS.
You can really tells this hit Juan hard.. ;(
@@androidemulator6952it’s because it’s all preventable.
Slowly the main stream media and “experts” are telling what Juan told in this video. Thank you Juan for sharing your expertise!!
Something else to think about is that the resolution of the altitude readouts is 100'. This means that even if they are perfectly calibrated, that's +/- 50'. So when the CRJ was showing 400', it may have been at 351', while if the heli was showing 300', it may have been at 349'. That is, even with perfectly calibrated equipment, 300' and 400' can be within just a few feet of each other.
So nice to listen and watch calm objective fact supported analysis.
No narrative, no vieled assignment of blame or premature conclusion.
What a shame those in politics don't have engineering backgrounds that would enable them to think clearly rather than play their silly narcissistic word games.
But that’s why the helicopter is supposed to be at 200 feet and below, so there is no confusion.
@@Dbo_SportsEven if the chopper is at 200 feet here and passes 100-150 feet below the plane while directly under it, that is extremely, extremely unacceptable. And it's likely happened A LOT in this spot and surrounding for many many years.
@@KBP120 Right. That is inherently too close vertically even if perfect. A disaster waiting to happen and it did. LOTS of DC lights at night; too many to depend on visual rules. Likely the helicopter pilot mistook another plane for the one tht collided.
At 200ft, you have visual no? Especially as they know the terrain.
As a retired FAA Aviation Safety Investigator, this tragedy should never had occurred. May Almighty God bring peace and comfort to the grieving families.
Christians elected their God King, he blamed this crash on DEI immediately after causing chaos in the FAA.
Maybe you should stop putting your faith into an imaginary god and start putting your faith into people who know what they are doing.
He didn’t though now did he.
@Imhavinganervousbreakdown The procedures worked successfully for a *VERY* long time. Neither the controller nor the CRJ pilot made any obvious mistakes, but the limited evidence suggests that the helo pilot may well have been at fault.
Amen.
Hey Juan, heard you on KFBK this afternoon. You do such a great job of explaining things to us non-pilots. Keep up the great work. You are greatly appreciated.
Thanks Dean!
Juan, you basically just handed the NTBS a brief summary of the causes and probably MOST of the contributing factors. Thank you , you always outshine the talking heads in the media.
I don’t get why people constantly make this a thing. Juan only talks about aircraft related stuff and is a pilot himself. Media has to talk about all news. They are not experts in the field and have to make sure (or should) their facts are correct and not speculate. If 2 ships crashed into each other and sank I doubt Juan would know much about this and be able to provide any information
Absolutely excellent analysis..I’ve flown in/out of DCA hundreds of times over my 42 years at Northwest/Delta in the B727, A320, B757. I couldn’t add a single thing..well done sir.
Juan focuses on a “late” traffic call and ignores the call made a minute earlier where PAT reports traffic in sight and requests visual (it’s approved). Feels slightly disingenuous and serves to paint the controller in a harsher light.
@@mikoj19 Only if that is your agenda.
Seeing a video from this channel always brings mixed emotions. On one hand, there is always some dread knowing that likely I’m about to learn of some horrible situation, and on the other, I feel excitement that I will learn something that has always been so locked away and ambiguous to the lay person. You carry yourself with such a professional and respectful manner that It deadens the blow and creates a sense of acceptance and understanding. Thank you for all you do.
An excellent recap of this tragic accident Juan. As a former airline Captain, I've flown into and out of DCA many times. Our SOP's restricted us to Rwy 01-19; however, I have flown private jet aircraft into Rwy 33 and it's a real all hands "heads up" approach in day VFR conditions. It's not hard to see how this tragedy occurred and hopefully the NTSB will make strong recommendations addressing the helicopter routes among other things in the Final Report of this accident.
Rule number one, no two aircraft are to occupy the same altitude in the same area, at the same time.
Also, any light or dot on your pilot windscreen that does not move is very very hard to detect with the abundant amount of nighttime light pollution.
Add possible use of nightvision goggles, and now you begin to see the compounding factors.
Thank you Juan. I can tell by your sigh at the end you are disgusted with what happened.
The senselessness.
Keep up the excellent work my friend.
The heli was not only high, but was off course, not hugging the eastern edge of the Potomac.
The parameters of helo route 1 and 4 are east side of the river and at or below 200'. Scant separation but adherence with either would have probably prevented this tragedy. Blackhawk climbed to 300 and drifted right over the middle of the river completing alignment of the holes in the swiss cheese.
Thank you Pilot Debrief.....
Seems kind of crazy that the “allowable” separation right at that point is only a couple hundred feet? I’m sure the pilots are great, but that obviously allows for essentially zero error.
If I had time, it’d be interesting to download a few months of this air traffic data and find hot spots in the system where flights were routinely close like this, like how many near misses, and especially at night.
The chart says Below 200. Gives the helicopters on the chart the ability to fly well below 200’
@@toastreconthat whole area is pretty hectic. That’s why they give the option of below 200. Helicopters can choose to fly much lower along the water there.
Once again, pilot error and VFR at night results in an accident.
Great video. The helo was 150' above the maximum allowed for that route 4. Careful helo pilots are known to go real low below 100' when they cross short final paths. Best to assume that you missed seeing the aicraft mentioned by ATC.
You make it so easy to understand because you are a real expert with outstanding communication skills. That’s why I always wait to hear to what you have to say before forming any opinions.
And Victor is such a great resource. What a fantastic combination.
That is the right way of building an opinion. Wait for facts - THEN form an opinion. And that is really important in todays world.
And there’s no news anchor constantly interrupting asking another question!
I am a veteran and have been stationed at Fort Campbell ( Air Assault) two times. I have rode in the Huey's and Blackhawks both while Pilots were flying nap of the Earth (NOE) with night vision goggles. Always having a door seat, I would sometimes get a little nervous when it looked like we were no more than 10 ft above Tree top level.
The best I can remember there have been quite a few crashes from helicopters at Fort Campbell and from what I can remember they were usually due to night time flying with night vision goggles.
Any type of flight at night, without NV is a risk due to diminished depth perception. Its worse with NV they say.
the worst I remember was when I was stationed at Ft Campbell sometime around 1988/9. Blackhawk and Huey occupied the same space at the same time out on the range, one merging onto a highly trafficked path. One of them under goggles, the other not. Killed a lot of men. The blackhawk was full of soldiers. Freaked me out for months.
@sbdreamin yep I remembered that exactly that was with the 2/502 around that time,before picking to Germany then back to 1/187 for Desert Storm.
If flying with NVGs are worse, then why do they even do it? Why not install some night vision / IR capability in the helicopter instead?
Stop blaming "night vision" for this. Plain and simple the Millennial crew were flying 150ft too high and were not watching their altimeter because they were probably goofing around on their phones instead of paying attention.
The helicopter could not see the jet owing to a mariner's axiom: constant bearing means collision. The jet's lights would not be moving against lights on the ground as seen from the helicopter, because their bearing from the helicopter is not changing. The helicopter could see other jets though. Their lights are moving.
constant bearing means collision! thank you for that take away!
I don’t agree. There was a lateral component to each aircraft’s view of the other.
Steady bearing predicting collision, however, is correct.
@@maxenielsen That's when the axiom works. No bearing change. Think ships approaching the same way.
It's one of the first things you learn as a pilot. If the target isn't moving you want to make sure it's not getting bigger. This is difficult if the target is just a light.
Moving or not, landing lights are easy to see at night. Especially coming from above.
Father time caught up with me 5 years ago. But as a retired major carrier PIC I for one know for a fact that a circling approach requires a special attitude and focus. The Crew of the jet never saw the helicopter.
I lived in Alexandria, VA for 22 years, just west of the runway 1 approach. I used to listen to DCA live ATC a lot and watch the planes outside my balcony. Anyway, switching from 1 to 33 was very, very common when I would listen.
I lived just south of the airport and if you didn’t hear planes constantly you knew something was wrong. DCA is a very busy airport and the fact that the military is doing training exercises amidst incoming and outgoing flights is insane
One incredibly important thing you're missing. The controller never said a word to the CRJ about the conflicting helicopter. He also did NOT use Visual Separation properly. You are required to tell the other Aircraft when courses are converging that the Helo has him in sight and is maintaining visual separation. Ref: 7110.65 Ch7 section 2. The controller never issued a traffic alert to either aircraft. (Required) Ref: 7110.65 Ch2 section 6.
News also is reporting that there was 1 controller at that time when normally there are 2
One ATC in the tower... arn't two required?
The aircraft was on final and was likely very busy considering the dogleg. Any such warning would cause the pilot to look around and probably screw the approach. So maybe they avoid such last minute warnings unless they want to cause a go-around ?
Yep, good point, CRJ appears to have been left "in the dark" literally.
My issue 💯 controller needed to state urgently collision course divert asap in whatever direction was best higher or lower or turn. He was very very quiet with 2 interactions. At that point to heck with procedure save the passengers.
Great analysis. In addition to not maintaining altitude, the helicopter seems to be drifting away from the east edge of the river. Collision wouldn't have occurred if it had been hugging the east side of the river at 200 feet altitude. Now they need to figure out why that happened.
Its US military they can do whatever they like. just search 1998 Cavalese cable car crash disaster.
@@anubizz3 and sometimes they screw it up. this was one of those. and everybody makes mistakes. but it is what it is.
According to Doc 4444 controllers shall provide traffic information to pilots when issuing avoiding action instructions in the following manner:
Traffic Information (ATC) TRAFFIC (number) O’CLOCK (distance) (direction of flight) (any other pertinent information)
The distance part would have been essential here….
Flown this approach many times (runway 1 switch to 33) and it's challenging at night. Some pilots simply say "no" and land on rwy 1. Maybe us pilots need to look at our safety and pucker factor as opposed to pleasing the controller.
The Brickyard Captain before him that "unabled" the 33 ask from tower is probably having a very poor day today.
That's what I was thinking. Why in the seven hells would any pilot land the dangerous risky maneuver when there is a safer alternative?
Im no pilot, but I've done a job that gives some discretion to the operator, & dispatcher can yell & scream & carry on all he wants, if I don't agree with his stupid plan (based on safety consideration), I'm telling HIM what's going to happen -- not the other way areound.
@Imhavinganervousbreakdown presumably had brickyard accepted it, he would have landed on 33 before PAT25 got there, and it would mean the crj would not have been asked to land on 33 instead would continue to 1??
@@Salmon_Rush_Die The manoeuvre is so risky that no pilot has ever got into trouble executing it. The CRJ pilot was just being polite.
Maybe runway 1 was determined to not be clear by ATC
Helicopter was not “hugging the E shore of the river”, and was flying well above the 200 ft ceiling. The other considerations must be investigated, but they did not respect the published constraints and thus intersected the RJ approach path.
U.S. Military pukes not following prescribed guidlines? Wow, I'm shocked - NOT.
Yep. My guess is that the Army helicopter crew was doing "Millennial" stuff like goofing around on their phones and not paying attention to their altimeter, etc.
@ Their mission is transporting Important People around the Capital District because they are so very very special and can’t mix with the slime proletariat in surface traffic.
It’s wild to me as a layman that. Jet could fly so close to a chopper by design, I’d of thought it would be really rough for the helo.
Great job, Juan, & Victor@ Vas
This is one of the best breakdowns of what happened. I came to a similar conclusion after listening to ATC, but you explain it very well. Thank you.
Easy to count out eight slices of cheese.
When you click on play you get facts, expert explanation and no BS! You are a gem to this aviation world. Never flew, never wanted to be a pilot. At 64 I just sit back and get smart because of you!
I looked this morning for a true source, came upon your channel, watched, & subscribed. YOU SIR, ARE THE BEST at fully explaining all possible in a clear, concise manner, MUCH RESPECT! Old lady from upper Michigan here, thank you!
I found this channel when looking for info on the S Korea jet that crash landed and now it is my go-to source for aviation. If you haven’t yet, go watch the Blancolirio videos on the S Korea crash landing.
@@DallasNatureLoverSame!
The helicopter pilot was flying 150ft over the corridors max altitude, busting class B airspace. If a ppl did this it would be a call from the faa and a license suspension at best.
That's right. Take Palo Alto. You literally have less than 4 seconds until you bust B of SFO. Reid-Hillview so much easier and safer, yet they try to close it over some silly reasons. Can't figure.
They were already in the bravo.
By far the best analysis on the Internet, you should be in TV
hes good because hes NOT on TV none of the red tape and politics involved!!, TV news Dont care about truth and accurate reporting they care about headlines and sensational reports
TV (and most TV viewers) doesn't want 12 mins of in-depth analysis like this. But agree this is very good stuff by Juan.
1000% All fact. No fluff. No bull.
There’d be at least 15 minutes of TV commercials interspersed in the video. That alone would turn off most viewing audiences.
@@tygerbyrnand there would be 10 mins of idiotic questions from the talking heads who hadn’t comprehended the facts Juan had just given them.
The go-to duo is VASAviation for ATC radio/Radar and blancolirio for analysis/perspective. When I share these two channels with friends they are so appreciative.
And then there’s gryder… 😂
Non-aviator here-- whenever there is an aviation related event in the news (usually a tragedy) I come here first for the clearest account of what happened and why. I have learned a lot about this topic from Juan, I like the shop-talk vibe but appreciate the explanations and term definitions that he throws in for the benefit of non-pilots
Very well done on this. I flew H60s for the Navy and was a flight instructor. You can hear the senior pilot making all the radio calls. On check flights that was common for instructor to handle that while the student flew. Feels like this was just poor airwork, with the ballooning from 200-350. Also of note 500 hours is VERY little and not what we'd call "experienced". You graduate flight school with about 250. I bet junior pilot didnt have much night overwater flight time if I had to guess either. Very sad all around.
Juan, you are the absolute best at accident analysis on RUclips. We appreciate your hard work.
The tower clearly tells the BlackHawk pilot to "pass behind" the CRJ, but if he mistook the following American plane for the CRJ then it looks like the helo planned to pass in front of it. Seems like that would have triggered the pilot to think "wait, something's not right here".
And one good thing about helicopters is you can just stop and work things out if you're confused.
@@robertarmstrong3350 this is why I’m wondering if they planned to pass behind them on the wrong side, not knowing they were turning to line up.
instead he should have told the helicopter to descend below 200ft immediately and then told the CRJ on final to go around and nobody would have died.
@@davedoe6445 PAT25, make left 360.
Really that's just a bandaid fix to the problem of DCA being way too crowned. Landing on 33 at night should be an emergency thing only. It's sketchy as hell under normal conditions.
There where two other CRJs operating before the CRJ that crashed… PAT must have confused the already landed CRJ with the one ATC was refering too… If I have to turn behind him Im already late for it, when he receives the order from ATC he turns imediately… no one is talking about that…
Juan giving unbiased , very informative information as usual. Great to have people like Juan , Mentour and 74gear on RUclips
About those different frequencies. Here in the Netherlands atc has coupled frequencies, where vhf and uhf channels are coupled through in both directions. Meaning when a civil planes transmits on a vhf frequency it is also retransmitted on the uhf frequency so the military can here the civilian plane. And also the other way around. That is how it should work...
Thanks for your coverage, Juan. Clearly the highest signal-to-noise ratio on reporting this tragic accident.
If you plot an extended centerline from the approach end of runway 33, it intersects the heli route 4 at 1mile. Given standard descent rate of 300' per mile, this is a published D.A.T (dead ass tie) all day. On top of all this, altimeters have an acceptable error.
I have to mention eerily similar in flight to the B17 crash. Helo cant see the crj above and to his left, the american eagle jet may have seen the helo coming at him 1/4 mile away below him never thinking it would turn up 200' into his glide slope. Sliced the plane in half. I just mean pilot cant see the blind spot under his nose when in a banked turn.
I agree.
Great work. Having flown NVGs for several years in the A-10, I can tell your viewers that you're spot on when it comes to depth perception and the lack of lateral movement of a target (looks like any other light or background lights). When it comes to depth perception, their first tally on the aircraft "south of the Wilson Bridge" is many miles away, and the CRJ landing lights can easily be mistaken for American 3130's landing lights which would be in their same relative field of view and not easily discernible from a closer target. Also, I find it unusual that the tower did not also point out the helicopter to the CRJ (did I miss that?) which is a common practice when 2 aircraft are merging.
I look forward to the release of the voice recorder to know whether the CRJ received any TCAS TA or RA. Maybe their TCAS was on MEL? The RJ pilots out there maybe can respond if TCAS is inhibited below a certain altitude - I know on my 757 and 767 that TCAS descend commands are inhibited below 1000' AGL, but would expect to receive a TA for sure and maybe an RA to climb.
Well made report. The mention of PSA/AA haunts me as I remember San Diego 1978/Chicago 1979, old timers will know about those. Extremely sad- RIP to those lost.
Also believe there was a PSA mid-air in San Francisco in the late 60’s.
Remember the 78 as I just got my ppl and couldn't believe a 172 brought down an airliner
NVG ops is insane in those traffic conditions.
If they were wearing them, that is.
I think he was only relying on the force
Never used white phos NG but have heard that they are not great in high ambient light conditions
@@funkyybuddha2438 dont they really desensitize your natural night vision substantially? And no peripheral vision ?
@@robin_holdenthey were
I worked SMF from 1979 - 1988 as a member of the CFR team (Crash/Fire/Rescue). When the air traffic controllers went on strike in 1981, president Reagan busted the union. They were not striking for pay; they were striking for safe working conditions. They had schedules where each day their shift would begin later by an hour or two. By week's end you would end up getting off eight hours prior to your next shift. Not so bad if you live at the base of the tower. Fatigue is wearing over time, especially when overtime becomes mandatory. I was strongly against the president then, and believe it has affected public safety ever since. Prove me wrong. Thanks for all your great and timely info. Loved hearing you on Tom Sullivan & with Kitty O'Neal on KFBK.
Thank you, Juan! Always come here first for the best and most informative updates on accidents and air safety!
Collision at 350 feet. Copter 150 feet too high (200 ft required). Tower warning to copter of CRJ with affirmative confirmation you mentioned was the second warning confirmed, not the first. Copter also said they would be responsible for avoiding CRJ, which would move tower focus to other flights.
This is the first time I learned that the PAT helicopter had earlier reported the RJ in sight, and had requested visual separation. Some of the reports make it sound as though the second warning was last minute: idk if it was late or not, but it seems important the helicopter had earlier, voluntarily, taken responsibility.
What I find insane about visual sep. when you have multiple targets is knowing if they've actually got eyes on the right aircraft. Helo basically said we got this, when in fact they did not nearly have this. The system seems so stupid, such a shameful way to kill so many people.
@@michaelwright2986 The helo first requested VFR 50 seconds before the crash - it is in the video at 07:21 The controller checking a second time was much more a diligent check than a late call.
@@hb1338 Yes indeed, that's what I was trying to say. Though some people are suggesting that the second call was a sign that the controller thought something might be going wrong--but too late by then, even if so, I expect.
The copter seems to also have been about a quarter to half mile too far west of the required route. I live in Alexandria 2 blocks from the river, 2.5 miles south of Reagan. The use of 33 by smaller planes is common during busy periods. Many times every hour, every day. Allows larger planes to line up to take off and land on the main runway a lot sooner.
1) Those DCA controllers are super task saturated. They need more positions in the tower to deal with the chaos that is DCA airspace.
2) Those helo routes are hazardous and need to be altered OR circle to 33 needs to be turned off with helo traffic inbound.
If anyone is curious, ATC requests pilots do the circle to 33 in order to increase DCA’s ability to handle traffic. It’s an airport that is already too busy, and last year the $enate pu$hed through additional $lot$ at DCA, de$pite the FAA pu$hing back…I wonder why….
I agree that limiting aircraft to runway 1 when a helo is heading south on that route would have kept them apart.
Now, is it possible that the chopper thought the aircraft was heading for runway one since it’s the most common one?
Story out this afternoon that DCA only has 19 of 30 controller positions filled, and 6 day weeks are common.
If I heard correctly, tower is authorized for 30 positions, but only 19 are filled. excess workload for the 19 even in daylight conditions.
@@kevinking9783 Its just going to worse they'll probably never lift the federal hiring freeze even if a lot of controllers take the buyout that was promised
I'd say so...less air traffic is better but then that might bother someone's revenue predictions. When you are flying, the last thing needed is "bumper to bumper" traffic.
In my 20 years of flying GA i don’t recall an ATC traffic warning that did not include the clock position reference, distance and altitude of the traffic. I hear none of those on the ATC communication provided. in this busy airspace there is traffic in all directions. Seems like the absence the normal Traffic Phraseology was a key bit of missing information that could have aided PAT25 in seeing the CRJ.
adding to my previous post, seeing the correct CRJ.
There was an earlier granted request for visual separation, but not with much more detail.
Seemed crazy to even allow air traffic of any kind to cross in front of a landing glide path -- with aircraft in the process of landing! Another thing to consider is how difficult it is to judge something coming at you at an angle to judge it's speed. That's how a lot of train collisions happen - when a motorist misjudges the speed.
Regardless of whether the helo saw the wrong plane, doubling his altitude is inexplicable. This is so suspicious.
Why suspicious and not just human error?
The luck on close calls ran out last night. The vertical separation of 200 ft or less for the helo route and the approach to runway 33 is just way too small to be safe. A small error in altitude makes it a collision. They routes and rules need to be changed for Reagan airport and the Potomac. Also maybe no landings on 33 after dark.
It does appear that the helo pilot was in the wrong place as demonstrated by the radar tracks combined with the map (great work, by the way).
That how it seems to me, too. Even if perfect, not enough vertical separation for flight paths that intersect.
I heard that the helo route was supposed to follow the road next to the Potomac and not in the middle of the river. The pilot veered off the route a little bit which in itself probably was less of a problem if he stayed below 200ft. And you are right, the approach to runway 33 generally overlaps the helo route unless the plane makes a point to really do a tight turn and not encroach upon the river bank.
why can't they just have the helo pilots go further along the Potomac to cross and the landing aircraft would not be in a descent? Is the time/fuel usage that much more?
@@CC-bz2fu I was thinking the same thing at first, but if you watch this video towards the beginning, the helicopter route is straight down, the pilot was probably not intended to cross the Patomac there. But the helo path would cross with the CRJ that had to dogleg right and turn to line up and land on runway 33. The helo not only flew too high but also a little off course to the middle of the river. The ATC told the helo about the incoming CRJ earlier in the log and the helo pilot asked for visual separation rule permission. Then later on, the ATC asked one more time if the helo pilot had visual identification of the CRJ in which he said he did right before the crash.
@@thep751 at a minimum, ATC should have verified the position of the CRJ with PAT25. Once conflict alert warning went off, ATC should have directed PAT25 out of the way.
Juan, Thanks for explaining this incident in a way that a non-pilot such as myself can understand. You did a great job on Toms show today also!
Thank you for covering this, I’ve been avoiding media coverage other than watching the official press conferences because I know that I will get facts here and no speculation or blame until all the facts are available! Keep up the good work
You can say goodbye to using night time visual separation rules at this airport.😱
Visual separation at this busy location should NEVER have been allowed! Humans are fallible, this was literally an accident just waiting to happen, and it happened!
@@2760ade Visual separation is used constantly at busy airports all over the world. It's not going anywhere. Especially not because of an airspace design with little margin for error and a helo crew not following the airspace restrictions, and not maintaining visual separation.
That is one potential written-in-blood rule resulting from this. Not a terrible one either.
Night VFR on that particular helicopter route is going away for sure.
@@vogz10night visual separation is a bad idea and it’s a matter of time before the losses become unacceptable.
Juan thank you for your knowledge and bringing understanding to this all. Victor at Vasaviation is another great as well. Thank you both for what you do.
Thank you Juan and Victor for a superb and detailed account into this awful tragedy, your combined knowledge and technical skills make you in my opinion the best and most accurate out there. As a retired person who served 43 years in the aviation industry including flight attendant my heart and thoughts go out to the deceased and their families. Today I saw photographs of the military crew personnel and also a very sad picture of those young kids at their recent ice skating event, it made me shed a tear, I will never forget them or this awful tragedy, may they all RIP.
VAS IS AWESOME ! And so are you!
Clearest commentary on the event, thanks!
Best explanation of what could have happened. One question I have is the helicopter agreed to cross BEHIND the regional jet. If he was confused by the jet further south than the regional jet, why did he turn to the right just before the crash? That would not be what he was told to do and agreed to. Assuming the tracks are accurate in the last chart you showed the helicopter did at least TWO things that probably caused the accident - the helicopter's altitude rose to the height of the regional jet (above his 200" limit) and they veered right outside of the route four they were supposed to adhering to.
This video re-creation was outstanding. Well done!
Compliments also to Victor!!!
I agree the helicopter at 8:07 is thinking the separation requested is about the aircraft at the bottom of the screen, not the RJ on final
Juan ... according to a friend of mine who lives near NE Philly airport, a small plane has gone down near Cottman Avenue and Roosevelt Mall
Video up now brrrroooo
Great analysis Juan and thank you to VAS channel for the audio and visual maps…such a sad situation all around and if one thing had changed this tragedy could have been avoided
Don't be so fast to thank VAS, he is opinionated, makes stuff up at times, claimed no recording was made of the helo because it was too low for the receivers, among many other things. He is rude in comments, can't handle criticism at all.
I learned to fly at a military / commercial airport 45 years ago. The military was on UHF frequencies and the civilians were on VHF frequencies. It often made for stressful situations. Hard to believe this is still the case.
Another EXCELLENT video, Juan. You simply are the most professional and knowledgeable at aviation related issues. Thanks for bringing clarity and insight to a very difficult circumstance.
Really sad. Best analysis period. So much misinformation out there and conspiracies. Thanks for doing what you do.
The amount of information provided in your videos compared to ANYTHING else on RUclips is staggering.